VDH predicts a Thermidor Reaction in America
Some French Revolution history from Victor Davis Hanson:
Almost everyone who originally had opposed the absolute monarchy, and, like the Americans, wished for a constitutional replacement, was eventually executed by revolutionaries who were then executed by more radical revolutionaries. The longer and more radical the revolution ran, the meaner, dumber, and more deadly the revolutionaries who emerged from the woodwork.
Finally, what could not go on, did not go on, as French society unraveled. Then the so-called Thermidors put an end to the madness of the Robespierre brothers and their sidekick, the 26-year-old Saint-Just, and did to them what they had done to thousands.
Not just what they had done to thousands, but what they were planning to do to the Thermidors themselves. For example:
Many feared their own survival depended on Robespierre’s removal; during a meeting on 29 June, three members of the Committee of Public Safety called him a dictator in his face.
Robespierre responded by not attending sessions, allowing his opponents to build a coalition against him. In a speech made to the convention on 26 July, he claimed certain members were conspiring against the Republic, an almost certain death sentence if confirmed. When he refused to give names, the session broke up in confusion. That evening he repeated these claims at the Jacobins club, where it was greeted with demands for execution of the ‘traitors’. Fearing the consequences if they did not act first, his opponents attacked Robespierre and his allies in the Convention next day. When Robespierre attempted to speak, his voice failed, one deputy crying “The blood of Danton chokes him!”…
He was executed on 28 July with 19 colleagues, including Saint-Just and Georges Couthon, followed by 83 members of the Commune.
Back to Hanson’s essay:
We are swept up in similarly scary revolutionary times, after the perfect storm of the 2020 rioting, the COVID destructive lockdowns, and a radical socialist takeover of the old Democratic Party…
We have not descended to the guillotine yet, but we are getting there with online cancel culture, doxxing, deplatforming, boycotts, mandatory diversity statements, indoctrination training, ostracism for an incorrect word, and violence redefined as activism.
Black Lives Matter ended when its supposedly Marxist architects all vanished into comfortable bourgeoise estates and cushy retirements—along with the millions of dollars they shook down from guilt-ridden corporations.
#MeToo sputtered out once the mantra of “believe women” turned its attention to candidate Joe Biden and Tara Reade. It turned out that she most certainly must not be believed when she swore the Delaware Democrat had sexually assaulted her.
VDH is a smart man and a good writer, but I’m not seeing what he seems to be seeing. BLM as an organization may have somewhat fizzled, but not the slogans and ideas it espouses. MeToo is alive and well and living in prosecutions of Republicans, as we’ve seen with the Jean Carroll trial. Tara Reade is a non-event for most Democrats, but that doesn’t mean that had she accused someone on the right she wouldn’t have been their darling.
Hanson goes on to describe how many elements of society have collapsed – many cities, respect for government agencies like the FBI and the military, the quality of education, and more. He thinks the backlash is already starting:
New polls showed scant public support for open borders, for multiple sexual identities, and for biological men competing in women’s sports. Reparations from an insolvent government to black Americans—on the principle that those whose ancestors might have been enslaved eight generations ago were owed money from those whose ancestors might have owned slaves eight generations ago—is widely rejected by the general population.
When corporations like Anheuser-Busch or Disney tried to ingratiate themselves to the woke Jacobins, they lost billions in revenue—just as the woke Pentagon has lost thousands of recruits.
Woke networks like CNN have smaller audiences than some one-person podcasts.
All of that is true. But will it matter? I don’t have the answer, but I fear it might not, for the simple reason that the left doesn’t care about public opinion at this point because they think they can keep power without it and crush those who disagree with them. Of course, so did the French revolutionaries.
It seems to me that for a Thermidor reaction to happen here, the rank-and-file Democrat members of Congress – not the high-profile radicals like AOC, but the lesser-known Democrats in Congress who pass themselves off as moderate and yet vote for every single radical proposal anyway – must start consistently refusing to do so. Till something of that sort happens, even if the populace isn’t happy with what’s going on, I believe the left will stay in power because the right has become so demonized that a lot of people will continue to vote for Democrats even when they implement policies they don’t like. When New York City or San Francisco start electing Republican mayors, then I might start believing something is really changing. Or when supposedly moderate Democrats in Congress start refusing to follow the dictates of their leaders, then I might start believing it as well.
The war on self defense is part of the left’s attempt to protect its options. The ex-Marine in NYC is just one example. The AZ rancher who fired at illegal aliens invading his property is another. The kid in Kenosha was acquitted but Kenosha is not NYC.
This is pretty much the way I see it too. The similarities to the French Revolution exist, but people who need to take action are either too cowardly or too much invested in the party to do so. I was encouraged several months ago when I saw AOC constituents shouting her down at a town hall, but nothing came of it. That guillotine does not operate itself. So the question now is, will pressure continue to build on the hard-left Democrats to change their policies, or will the can just continue to be kicked down the road?
Up until maybe 1900,as many as eighty percent of the population was involved in the production of food; farmers and their families, millers, harness makers, wagon makers, blacksmiths, so forth. This was because agriculture was inefficient and a farmer had only a little left over after taking care of his family, although he might be doing cash crops whose return was about the same.
So the interconnectedness of society and the economy was considerably less than today.
“irish democracy” is, I think, the term for simply not going along with the program.
We see this in some cases where county sheriffs refuse to enforce state or federal gun laws. Indeed, a couple of years ago, a sheriff in, iirc, Missouri said if the feds came in to confiscate legally owned weapons, his guys would arrest them.
If most citizens refused to provide the time of day to any federal agent, just insisted they know nothing, that would be a handicap for the feds.
The gymnasts who were ignored by Wray’s perverts should have gone public sooner and the next time, a similarly-situated group will.
There can be a lot of sand in the gears before anything gets Thermidorian violent and perhaps make the latter unnecessary.
As I have said any number of times, the people who vote blue despite the evidence hitting them on the head–sometimes metaphorically–and stinking up their front porch puzzle me. But, between the depopulation of blue sinkholes and the possibility that as many as one percent may learn something, maybe their influence will wane.
It will take some effort. Those who insist books are being “banned” should be informed we know they’re lying. They can keep saying this stuff but they should know we know they’re lying and wasting their breath. A reasonably prosperous AWFL who insists inflation is down should be challenged to make the case to a family worried about their next grocery bill.
The less noise these folks make, the less influence they have.
The longer and more radical the revolution ran, the meaner, dumber, and more deadly the revolutionaries who emerged from the woodwork.
My example is only a small element of the topic, but more recent. Remember when ISIS or ISIL had ramped up its operations? There was some considerable evidence that psychopaths and serious sociopaths from around the world traveled to Syria and Iraq to participate in what to them might be termed “the festivities.” That is, wholesale torture and murder.
I largely agree with you, Neo. I think Hanson is engaging in a bit of wishful thinking. There is a reaction, but it’s weak, scattered and largely ineffective, for all the reasons you laid out. It seems to be slowing down the mad woke March, but not stopping it, let alone reversing anything.
This is a recurring theme with Hanson: This time the Democrats, the Bureaucrats and the Left have really done it, and they’re going to be called to account for what they’ve done. E.g. earlier this year he wrote a column entitled, “FBI RIP?” The predictions of the chickens coming to home to roost on our enemies’ heads have never panned out, and almost certainly never will. He keeps imagining we have an electorate and at least a business culture similar to what we had in the 70s through the 2000s. That’s totally gone now. Wishful thinking is right.
Notice that the Thermidors did not act until they were pretty convinced they were going to be killed. Perhaps violence really is necessary for change to occur; perhaps people really can’t rouse themselves to take lesser action in the ballot box when it would do some good. The Chicago black people in the 90% Biden precinct who are strenuously angry about the vagrants and illegal aliens moving into a local (empty) school house have the opportunity to vote the Democrats who are bringing these people into their lives out of office. Will they? Are they really scared enough?
I hate to think that life together has descended to where it really is all about violent power but that seems to be the case, at least in the urban areas.
Thermidor didn’t happen in a democratic environment. That is to say, the elite could turn on some of its members without having to worry about being reelected. There were political clubs and mobs, but they could be crushed by force.
The two party system was once thought to encourage moderation and compromise, but when the two parties become so ideologically polarized, moderation is difficult. It’s going to be difficult for the Democrats to turn on their leaders and their ideological base. If Newsom takes over, there might be more control over the activist wing of the party, but the Democrats won’t explicitly renounce Biden’s policies. It will be like Biden switching from “Defund the Police” to “Fund the Police” and the media not deigning to notice his turnaround.
If Republicans take over, the Democrats may slowly walk away from Bidenism, but they won’t explicitly repudiate it. They’ll focus on attacking the other side, but as the window of political possiblity shifts, political debate won’t be about trans issues and other current nonsense. Eventually, there may be a Bill Clinton-style “New Democrat.” That would be part of a generational shift, though.
Having to stand for re-election seems to have wonderfully concentrated the minds of some Dems in Congress: “Some Senate Democrats who urged the Trump administration to reverse Title 42 in 2020 are expressing concern over the end of the pandemic-era policy, with others backing a new proposal to stem the flow of migrants illegally crossing the southern border. . . . The [2020] letter’s signers included at least one Democrat — Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio — who recently signed onto a bill sponsored by Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) that would effectively extend Title 42 for another two years. ‘We need two more years to get this right,’ Brown, who is up for re-election next year, told Politico of his decision to co-sponsor the Sinema-Tillis bill.”
https://nypost.com/2023/05/12/democrats-who-wanted-title-42-gone-in-2020-have-second-thoughts/
While I wouldn’t classify these “second thoughts” as a strong Thermidorian reaction, they won’t be any comfort to Biden.
Republicans could pivot away from Bushism or Romneyism because the base of the party opposed the policies of the political elites. Something similar was possible for Democrats when they nominated Carter or Bill Clinton. But now the Democrats’ base, at least among whites, is composed of people who are on board with Biden’s policies, as are their senators and representatives. There’s no longer a silent majority of moderate Democrats, so I don’t see either the base or congressional delegations rebelling against the regime. The irony perhaps, is that Biden was intended to be a pivot away from Bernie Sanders and the left. In today’s Democratic Party, Biden might already count as a moderate.
Neo, I have consistently said to anyone who will listen (this is very few people) that until the “moderate” or more conservative democrats rise up en masse and just stop voting for the crap that passes for legislation, AND start speaking out against all this nonsense, we won’t see any significant changes.
For the life of me, I don’t understand what the “machine” has on all these democrats.
On a different, but related note, I was shooting the sh!t with my neighbors yesterday (both in their 70s) and for some reason the husband brought up Trump’s CNN townhall (we literally have never talked politics). I mentioned I hadn’t watched, but had seen and read some clips.
This eventually led to the wife saying something about January 6th and how “they killed police!” I told her, no, none of the people gathered at the capitol killed any police and explained about Sicknick and who all died that day and how.
Oh, she wasn’t talking about that! There was one police officer (according to her) who was “squashed between two fences” by the rioters.
OMG. I told her, no, that didn’t happen, but she said she was “pretty sure” it did.
These are very nice people, and for sure don’t seem to be any sort of radical lefties, but man, I was amazed at the level of “just listen to what some outlet tells me and totally believe it without checking to see if it’s true.” It made me sick, not about the neighbors, but about our country!
I love VDH (my son was privileged to have him as a visiting professor at Hillsdale for a class), but alas, I do think he is a bit delusional at this point.
Speaking of Anheuser-Busch and Disney, this video explains how ESG scoring from the banking industry (via ESG-linked credit lines) may keep them woke and steadily declining until they are no longer sustainable:
The BUD LIGHT Collapse: How ESG cost both DISNEY and ANHEUSER-BUSCH their customers
But won’t their borrowers’ lack of profits lead to more bank failures?
Yes, which is where bailouts from fraudulently installed government come in.
But won’t that lead to civilizational collapse?
Bingo, mission accomplished.
I think it more likely to be a counter-revolution and I doubt most on the left even have a clue what that means.
One of the seminal moments for me was the Antifa ambush at the Grant Park Columbus statue of the Chicago PD in July 2020.
Self-discipline is just another form of white supremacy, according to the Left, as is the idea that people must actually work for what they want.
Oh, this is great. So the leadership of all Lefty activist groups must henceforth be chosen by lot or by skin color or whatever preference/pronoun they assume, rather than by verbal or by thuggist ability. Else they too are ‘supremacists’, for exhibiting their abilities competitively.
I’m a French Revolution buff. I found this quote interesting:
three members of the Committee of Public Safety called him a dictator in his face.
I don’t entirely buy that Robespierre would have regarded this as such an insult. It is not at all inconsistent with the motivating philosophy of the French Revolution. I know that sounds a little crazy to Americans, but it’s not. In fact that is precisely the term that Marat used. We need a “dictator for the people” – however you say that in French, that is what he encouraged Robespierre to be.
This is, in my opinion, THE difference between the French and the American Revolution. The philosophy that motivated the American revolution was government by, of, and for the people. The French Philosophes didn’t give a rat’s ass about the by and of part. In fact, they just thought that would get in the way. Government FOR the people was all that mattered.
Just reread my post. I’m sure Robespierre recognized it as a threat. Just not an insult.
@ abraxas The irony perhaps, is that Biden was intended to be a pivot away from Bernie Sanders and the left.
Don’t think so. He always was a flashy fishing lure, intended to convince VOTERS of that ‘pivot’ away from the left, with an extra prize of slapping down that horrible Trump.
Those who controlled the fishing pole, and called the shots and raked in vast lefty-technocrat dough and jiggered the 2020 elections countrywide, knew they could puppetize Joe Biden and administer government agencies and most of Congress from the far left. As they have done and are doing – just check Afghanistan for surrenders, and our Southern border for invasions, and Washington for sniggering acquiescence.
Maybe wishful thinking on VDH’s part but could or not happen.
Been a while since I read about the French Revolution but my impression is who’s head was about to roll and it was just who struck first. Certainly a few things, Bud Light for 1, maybe it’s the underside of the iceberg finally tipping the top over
From Abraxas (above):“but when the two parties become so ideologically polarized, moderation is difficult.”
Any correction becomes even more difficult when the two parties become ideologically unified.
“I believe the left will stay in power because the right has become so demonized”
I believe the left will stay in power because it has corrupted our election processes.
I keep thinking I’ve mislaid a zero here;
It’s said that there are roughly twenty million AR-style weapon legally owned. Let’s say some guys own two. So we have fifteen million guys owning one or more of the most notorious people killers since the H bomb.
If one one-hundredth of one percent of them want to put up a fight, that’s fifteen hundred gun fights.
Is that right? Maybe it’s one one-thousandth of one percent making it one hundred fifty gun fights.
And that’s restricted to owners of one type of weapon.
Richard Aubrey,
That 20 million number is an old number. The truth is people have been building their own off books since the ban ended in 2004 if not before. Now they are 3-d printing them and Glocks and all kinds of unique designs.
Some years ago, I used to work with a guy that had enough I think to put his own rifle squad in the field. I once asked why so many. His answer: “Because I like them and when the time comes, Arm Thy Neighbor.”
Abraham Franklin:
If the number of people voting for the right was overwhelming, the left would not be able to win by cheating or rigging or whatever is happening. I am convinced that many many many more people would be voting for the right but for the very successful demonization process that has caused them to feel they cannot possibly go over to the Dark Side.
Chases, I was looking to be as conservative as possible. That’s why I left out all the other types. There innumerable pre-war Enfields and Springfields around on nobody’s books. From “chrome”, 800 yards, iron sights, darn scary.
Run my math against all long guns. Then add pistols.
Well, lookee here, according to the story below, we have a uniformly garbed, masked, American flag carrying group of 150-200 presumably white men calling themselves the Texas-based “Patriot Front” arriving by METRO, marching around D.C. for a reported couple of hours, a speech was delivered at Union Square across from the White House and, then, the group headed back to METRO–all this with a police escorts.
This on the same day as Biden was telling Howard University students that …” the most dangerous terrorist threat to our homeland is “white supremacy.”
What a coinkidink.
It would seem that this is a pretty sorry and transparent attempt at political theater, designed to prove Biden right and/or to stage a provocation.
See https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/feds-on-parade-hundreds-of-patriot-front-members-march-in-khakis-and-masks-towards-u-s-capitol-video/