US IQs drop across all age groups – or do they?
While trying to read this rather dense piece of social science research, I came across this portion quite a ways into it:
…[I]t should also be recognized that the SAPA Project relies on participants finding or seeking out the survey; meaning members of the population do not have an equal probability of being recruited into the survey (Condon, 2018). Thus, selection bias has likely been introduced into the sample due to those voluntarily taking the survey being non-representative of the target population (Lohr, 2010). This significantly differs from previous Flynn effect studies that relied on systematic norming data collected by proprietary licensed measures using probability sampling or population-based conscript data where participation was required…
Beyond inconsistencies in demographics across the sample, another factor that could be accounting for lower scores for more recent participants could be due to a decline in motivation. As the SAPA Project is advertised as a personality survey, individuals seeking out the SAPA Project may not be fully engaged with items not measuring temperament at the capacity as they are with more typically considered personality items.
There’s more, but you get the idea. And the idea is: why bother? So much social science research is garbage in garbage out, some of it built into the nature of such research with human subjects.
So perhaps I’ll just close with this:
I don’t think my IQ dropped (my Friends would say it is low enough), thanks to the fact I don’t watch news shows.
Side note: My 9th Grade English Teacher, Mrs. Faulker, in Aurora CO drilled into our heads that saying “the fact that” the that was wrong. Believe something like it is redundant. So I never use it, as you can see above.
You aren’t imagining things. The overall trend is a steady decline in IQ scores from decade to decade. For example, high school graduates in the 1960s had an average IQ of 99.3 but this figure declined so that by the 2010 decade, it was 93.5. A similar drop occurred among college graduates, from 113.3 in the 60s to 100.4 in the 2010 decade. For those with graduate degrees, the fall was from 114.0 to 105.8. Assuming that you need an IQ score of at least 110 to do college level work, most college students today are incapable of college level work. That’s why you have all the studies courses.
Somewhat related. Really good piece by Jonathan Haidt.
https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/mental-health-liberal-girls
Is there a bigger oxymoron than “social science”?
There is no social “science”. The leftist pretend, since we believe in scientific data, is to term nonsense as “science”, so the ill-informed will become believers in pseudo-“science”. There is precious little understanding of “The History and Philosophy of Science”, the name of a course I took in college long ago; taught by an astronomer. It has stayed with me!
Ray-
That is why drop-out rates are so high. Charles Murray has shown incontrovertibly that black males on average have an IQ one standard deviation below white males. And Obama said everyone should go (!) to the now-predominantly leftist colleges across the land. Except Asians denied admission to Harvard and UNC Chapel Hill with GPAs of ~3.9 while blacks with GPAs of 2.5 are admitted. Their lawsuit, pending before SCOTUS, will be interesting, since non-discrimination is the law of the land.
Depends on which colleges the graduates were measured. There are now lots where IQ of 110 is fine. Federal loans to the schools motivate the lowering of standards by financial corruption.
Somewhere recently I read that there is no such thing as “social science”. There is nothing “scientific” about it (per the definition of the scientific method, etc.). The wanna-be “social scientists” just like the imagined prestige that adding the word “science” to their “studies” “brings”. (It makes them “feel good”.)
As far as IQ goes, I was given an IQ test at around age 12, mid-’50’s, which was probably an unusual thing at the time, but my father was a K-12 principal and his vice-principal was an Army(?) WW2 veteran. I think IQ tests had been developed by the Army to help them assign the troops. Nothing school-related was ever discussed at home, but I did ask when I was older how I scored. My score seems reasonable to me. However, vocabulary, logic, college-educated parents, lots of reading (no screens in those days, even no TV–with test pattern–until I was 12)—all of these things meant I had grown up in an unusually enriched environment. I guess I am trying to say that it is very difficult to assess “intelligence”. There are several different kinds of intelligence, most of which can’t be measured. I do think that our recent culture has been “dumbing down” people across the board, probably for decades. I had college friends, some of whom were of about average intelligence, I think, at the time, but they got nursing degrees from Columbia U., or all kinds of professional degrees/careers. Why? Because going to college was a privilege and we were expected to have professional careers after we graduated. I went to a small private college with very strict admittance and grading standards. If you got a “A”, you had earned it. If you did not do well, it was your fault! Not “society’s”. And there were different races there, in the ’60’s, both students and faculty.
Did not mean to ramble on, but this is one perspective on the issue.
VV-
I and most others here agree with you!
Intelligence is mostly genetic. Smart parents have smart kids, and the dumb bring up the dumb next generation.
But all can be and are indoctrinated.
I took an IQ test in 4th grade, mainly because my teacher was worried because I knew all the answers in class but was always bored or distracted. IIRC my score was 179. Only other test of that nature I took was the ASVAB in 1974, when I was a high school senior. I got a 98 out of 100. When I was in college, I changed majors numerous times, out of boredom, never actually graduated although they could have made up a liberal arts degree for me (school didn’t offer one). I never studied in school but always was on the honor roll/dean’s list. Not once did anyone ever consider that maybe someone should take an interest in me. Public schools are a cancer on society.
On the subject of I.Q.–
Take a look at these startling and very interesting discussions and analyses from Jordan Peterson
Of most importance, see his discussion of “the most terrifying I.Q. statistic” at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-Ur71ZnNVk
Then, look at this further discussion of this fact and it’s implications with another expert in this area at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kVFYzmigx0
Finally, on measuring I.Q. and the job market see Peterson’s analysis at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjs2gPa5sD0&t=166s
Leaving Bell Curve racial differences aside, is anyone in doubt that IQ’s could be waning as consequence of forgoing merit-based competency and instead rewarding people for things having nothing to do with ability or intelligence?
An intellect develops with use, and regular sustained challenge. Now that a system has been put into place that sorts people according to their neuroses, how is it possible that a population with better, higher-quality neuroses does not result, as a product of the new competition?
Too bad about your medical care, and your piloting skill levels, and your house wiring. Maybe we should prepare to be a frustrated consumer in all things. With the correct gender and pronouns, of course.
Intelligence is mostly genetic. Smart parents have smart kids, and the dumb bring up the dumb next generation.
The SAT was invented to find kids who were smart whose parents might be poor, uneducated or even dumb. That was at a time when not many could go to college. I took the SAT in 1956. We were not told anything about it. It was just a test. No prep at all. To this day, I don’t know my score. It was good enough to make me a National Merit Scholar in 1956, the first year it was awarded. 100 were awarded. I was accepted to CalTech but was unable to go because my father, who had quit school at age 15, threw away the family finacial statement form. I got a letter congratulating me and noting that I did not need the money.
I should add that USC alumni sent me a letter asking if I wanted to go there and offering a scholarship. I did go and eventually went to the USC medical school, also on scholarship. I was first in my class all 4 years.
Of most importance, see his discussion of “the most terrifying I.Q. statistic” at
His summary is terribly overstated. We don’t have 46 million unemployable adults wandering around in this country.
“Charles Murray has shown incontrovertibly that black males on average have an IQ one standard deviation below white males.”
Does that hold true in Liberia? Or Algeria? Or Brazil? And does “black” include those from the Caribbean? Or Europe?
And by the way, if black males are less intelligent than white males…doesn’t that justify increased spending on government programs to help black males overcome that deficiency?
Mike
“We don’t have 46 million unemployable adults wandering around in this country.”
Combine the people working useless corporate jobs with some of the barely functional people now entering the workforce and I’m not sure that 46 million figure might not be an understatement.
Mike
According to this article:
https://moneyzine.com/personal-finance-resources/how-many-people-are-on-welfare/#howManyPeopleAreOnWelfare
We have about 13% of Americans on welfare. About 42 million people. They also get Medicaid and other assistance.
Many of these people may be employable but are physically or mentally unable to hold a living wage job. Some may be just lazy, but some may have IQs below 85.
Snow on Pine’s Jordan Peterson videos may be correct. People who are unemployable because of low IQ may be a bigger problem than most of us realize.
Three of my high school classmates flunked out of college. All three went into the Army or Navy for a three-year enlistment. All three came back and finished college. Two Veterinarians and one National Park Ranger were the end result. Military training can help people mature and learn skills. One of my friends was dyslexic. The Navy diagnosed it and set him up for success.
}}} And the idea is: why bother?
The government funded it. That’s why. You don’t do it, you don’t get paid. Nor do you get published.
Glad I could help.
Yes, the problem is clearly:
a — gummint funding of Sciency-Stuff
b — there are far too many Journals of Irreproducible result available at this point.
}}} Military training can help people mature and learn skills.
Would this not be the same thing as “teaching self-discipline”? 😀
}}} useless corporate jobs
I think you’re substantially underestimating the number of useless government jobs, perhaps…? I’m sure there are useless corporate jobs, but suspect the number of useless government jobs is something like 10-1.
}}} Intelligence is mostly genetic. Smart parents have smart kids, and the dumb bring up the dumb next generation.
I’m certain there is a genetic component, but intellect is far more about parental devotion than just genetics. Parents who encourage their kids to excel generally have very bright kids. Arguably, this is the connection between bright asians and bright jews. Both have pushy mothers.
}}} Is there a bigger oxymoron than “social science”?
Uhhh… “Climate Science”? I am not sure that is more or less of one than “political science”… 😀
And by the way, if black males are less intelligent than white males…doesn’t that justify increased spending on government programs to help black males overcome that deficiency?
No.
Social studies and research has always been done in pursuit of predetermined answers.
J.J–What I took from Peterson’s discussion of the practical un-employability of the sizeable percentage of the population with I.Q.s below 83 was that there is a huge public policy problem staring these policy makers in the face; a problem which I’ve never seen any other acknowledgement of.
Moreover, I’d image as our society becomes ever more technologically oriented/dependent even those with I.Q.s even higher than 83 will have increasing difficulties in learning the information and skills they need to find a job, and in getting hired for those jobs.
P.S.–I might note that Peterson also pointed out in his discussions that there was no correlation between high I.Q. and wisdom, or other desirable characteristics such as truthfulness, conscientiousness, courage, or agreeableness.
We have about 13% of Americans on welfare. About 42 million people. They also get Medicaid and other assistance.
No.
1. TANF now enrolls about 2 million people. It’s predecessor (AFDC) enrolled 12 million in 1992. General relief programs set up during the Depression had as f 1992 been eliminated in 41 states, more now I’d wager. New York retains a general relieve program, but there’s a limit on drawing benefits of 24 months per lifetime.
2. There are about 8 million enrolled in Supplemental Security Income. Some are elderly people who did not have sufficient time paying into Social Security. Most are people who were disabled at some point in their life prior to age 30. The benefit levels are small (around $600 a month, IIRC); the actual function of the program is to offset costs to families for caring for them, not to provide an independent living for them.
3. About 12% of the population is enrolled in SNAP (né Food Stamps), or 41 million people. It’s an income supplement program, not an income replacement program. The majority of those who meet the eligibility requirements do not sign up for the program. The benefit level is about $230 per person per month at this time.
4. About 3% of the population (9 million) is signed up for federal housing subsidies, the majority for a program called ‘Section 8’ which obsesses those on Mr. Sailer’s comment boards. If I’m not mistaken, these programs have long queues and benefit perhaps 10% of those whose income is low enough to qualify.
5. About 4% (12 million people) are enrolled in a program called LIHEAP which subsidizes expenditures on utilities. The total budget for the program is about $3.8 bn per year and the average benefit per household is about $65 a month.
There are, in addition, benefits for niche clientele. There were, for example, some special benefits for AIDS patients set up a generation ago which have not been terminated &c.
You don’t have 70 million people signed up for these programs. They’re means- tested programs and impecunious households are commonly eligible for and signed up for multiple programs, so the total number of beneficiaries is well below 70 million. Only SSI and TANF provide cash income to the impecunious. TANF is term-limited and SSI requires you be elderly or adjudicated disabled.
The really massive welfare program is Medicaid. Its budget is the equivalent 2.5% of gross domestic product and about 1/4 of the revenue of the ‘health-care-and-social-assistance’ sector. As of now, about 23% of the population (77 million people) are enrolled. About 20% of it is devoted to financing nursing home care. The rest is for medical care for the impecunious.
One problem with this is that we can’t really compare scores over several decades unless all of the students took exactly the same test under exactly the same conditions. If the tests were different then the results will probably be different as well.
A more fundamental problem is that IQ tests don’t really measure “intelligence” (whatever that means), they measure skills, starting with the skill of understanding the questions. To give an admittedly extreme example, how well would you do on a test written in a language you’d never learned ?
I agree with most of what has been said here. Our current “mess” did not just happen; it is the result of the left’s “long march through the institutions”.
An article and short video on “Emotional Intelligence at Work”, another kind of intelligence:
https://bigthink.com/the-learning-curve/emotional-intelligence-at-work/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ngIFlmRRPQ
J.J–What I took from Peterson’s discussion of the practical un-employability of the sizeable percentage of the population with I.Q.s below 83 was that there is a huge public policy problem staring these policy makers in the face; a problem which I’ve never seen any other acknowledgement of.
The notion that 17% of the population is unemployable is tommyrot. (Again, Edward Banfield had a discussion of this issue). There are about 65.3 million males between the ages of 25.0 and 55.0. About 54.8 million are currently employed; about 1.5 million are confined in institutions; about 1.1 million are enrolled in Supplemental Security Income (i.e. adjudicated disabled); about 1.2 million are enrolled in Social Security Disability Insurance, about 1.4 million are between jobs (unemployed < 27 weeks). That leaves you with a residue of 5.3 million who are not currently working for reasons not-otherwise-specified. There was some survey research done in 2014 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of men between 25 and 55 who had retreated from the labor force; 1.7 million listed as a reason 'home responsibilities' or 'attending school'. That leaves a residue of 3.6 million out of 65.3 million.
Now, some of the SSI and Disability beneficiaries are so for psychiatric and psychological reasons. Keep in mind, though, that the median age of those awarded Social Security Disability is 49 years and they've a sufficient work history to qualify; they weren't too stupid to work. A low IQ is a criterion for SSI eligibility, but the threshold for an award for intellectual deficit alone is an IQ of 60, characteristic of 0.35% of the population. You can receive an award if you have and IQ between 60 and 70, but you have to have a supplementary disability. (About 2% of the population has an IQ between 60 and 70).
My alma mater changed the department name from Psychology to Psychological Science. So take that you deniers that it’s real science.
Moreover, I’d image as our society becomes ever more technologically oriented/dependent even those with I.Q.s even higher than 83 will have increasing difficulties in learning the information and skills they need to find a job, and in getting hired for those jobs.
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See Banfield. People have been peddling that shizz for > 50 years now. It never seems to happen. (The counter-current is provided by leftoid economic historians, who offer the complaint that technological advancement leads to ‘de-skilling’ of workers).
Combine the people working useless corporate jobs with some of the barely functional people now entering the workforce and I’m not sure that 46 million figure might not be an understatement.
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Bunge fancies people get jobs in HR and corporate communications because food service is too intellectually taxing.
Social studies and research has always been done in pursuit of predetermined answers.
Rubbish.
My alma mater changed the department name from Psychology to Psychological Science. So take that you deniers that it’s real science.
==
Psychology is all over the map and has territory in the natural sciences, in observational research on individual subjects, and in social research. Paul Vitz was predicting a while back that the discipline would eventually break up into successor disciplines with some of the territory being absorbed by other branches of social research.
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I cannot help but notice that half of you are arguing that IQ is king and the other half are arguing that the people who design and administer IQ tests are peddling patent medicine but the one half is not arguing with the other.
Response to “,,,food service is too intellectually taxing.”
If HR screws up, does anyone really notice ? Because if the food service people screw up, EVERYBODY notices..
Because if the food service people screw up, EVERYBODY notices..
That means the operational measures of competence in food service are more robust.
HR causes trouble not by mistakes (though they may do that too), but by refusing to stay in their lane and harassing employees.
HR are enforcers of DEI and various and sundry sensitivity guidelines and policies. When HR screws up food and service become unpalatable for the customer and employee.
rebresearch.com/blog/why-is-social-science-research-irreproducible-and-how-to-tell-what-is-true
intelligence is whatever the intelligence test measures. Part of my high school memories includes many hours in the lunch room filling in bubbles with a soft lead pencil. Might be over-remembered. Maybe I learned how to take tests.
My folks were educated. I read a lot. Maybe I had the vocab to understand the questions quickly and accurately.
How much of that reflected actual cognitive horsepower?
Australian Traditional Peoples do better than anybody in the world in tests of spatial memory. Not very well on conventional IQ tests. Ashkenazi Jews are pretty much the opposite.
Who’s smarter?
Depends.
Correction. About 13% of the population have an IQ of 83 or below.
I did my Undergrad at a large, midwestern land grant public university. It was the most discriminating of the public colleges and universities in my state so most all the Undergrads were likely in the top 10% of their High School class. I met a lot of young men and women from a lot of different backgrounds. One great predictor of future success I pieced together; academically motivated kids raised on farms and/or raised in large families always succeeded. They were mature and focused. They knew the value of time and money and they knew how to work hard.
Rufus
I know a lot of teachers–spent my working life in central Michigan–who have experienced many neighborhoods, including their student teaching. Farming towns were generally considered a good place to teach.
Exception is a town near to an auto plant, “the shop”: where you didn’t need to do well in high school to get a decent UAW job–“like my father”. So motivation might be down in some of the guys, but disruption was not an issue.
As of the last official report, dated January 2023, the number of people who were enrolled in the Social Security Disability Program (SSDI) was not 1.2 million people as quoted by Art Deco at 10:46 above, but rather 8,799,000 people, 7,566,000 of them disabled workers.
Moreover, according to the linked report below, average monthly SSDI payments for workers were a not inconsiderable $1,483.
So, depending on your particular situation and where and how you live, you could probably scrape by each month on that $1,483, especially if you were able to get some other types of government assistance in addition to that $1,483.
I’ve noticed that, on Judge Judy, you’ll see a lot of healthy looking young and relatively young people who, when asked what they do for a living, say that they have been on SSDI, often for several years, and often for very hard to disprove disabilities like “back problems.”
See https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/
As of the last official report, dated January 2023, the number of people who were enrolled in the Social Security Disability Program (SSDI) was not 1.2 million people as quoted by Art Deco at 10:46 above, but rather 8,799,000 people, 7,566,000 of them disabled workers.
I wasn’t referring to the whole population of Disability beneficiaries, just men between the ages of 25.0 and 55.0.