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Home » Zelensky’s message: Surrender, Conscripts

Zelensky’s message: Surrender, Conscripts

The New Neo Posted on by

Given the unhappiness of many of the Russian conscripts, this appears to be a clever approach:

This is also an interesting observation, if true:

…[T]he Putin regime could stop the mass exodus if it wanted to do so. This flight to avoid mobilization is allowed, I believe, because the men running away are those with education, means, and social standing. Just as our draft riots in the mid-1960s started at elite universities and spread outward, the men absconding to Georgia and Armenia have the potential to form an effective resistance to conscription and endanger the regime. Unfortunately for Russia, most of the men who flee mobilization will be lost forever. The men conscripted are generally poor, poorly educated, powerless, and ethnic minorities. No matter how mad they get, it will never be a threat to Putin’s regime.

Also there’s this:

Russians are calling Ukraine to surrender before even being drafted into the military as moral within Putin’s ranks collapses, Kyiv has claimed.

Andrii Yusov, spokesman for the Ministry of Defence, said men who are fearful of the draft have been getting in touch with a surrender hotline to check how to give up safely before they are called to the frontlines.

Meanwhile videos have emerged showing a newly-recruited tank commander who has been told he will deploy to the Kherson frontline in just two days without so much as firing a shot on a training range.

Ukraine is certainly not above giving out “disinformation” – otherwise known as propaganda – on this. But it makes a certain amount of sense. The morale of a fighting force – as well as its training and experience – is a very important element of warfare. Russian forces appear to have a significant morale problem.

Comments

Zelensky’s message: Surrender, Conscripts — 18 Comments

  1. I don’t begrudge Zelensky’s use of propaganda. He’s good at it and its the most effective weapon he has at his disposal. That doesn’t mean I have to believe it.

  2. His most effective weapon? I guess the great Moskva Feint, Kyiv Feint, Karkhiv Feint have all been spin and verbal skilz.

    Not running away proved somewhat effective when dealing with Vlad.

    Time will tell.

  3. Word is that Ukraine is giving each and every Russian POW a full 15 minutes per day of VOIP contact with their family and friends back in Russia.

  4. Neo, thanks for posting that link about the exodus from Russia – I was wondering why Russia was letting so many just leave. But, it does kind of make sense to let those who might be “trouble” to leave.

    One problem with this exodus, which Putin won’t be facing right away, is that this could end up being a massive brain drain on Russia with it best and brightest leaving.

  5. Is there any suspicion of intelligence infiltration imbedded in these defections?

    Is there any sign of an actual end to the conflict or will many Europeans go cold this winter?

  6. Sid Chambers PhD needs to ride herd on his spell checker.
    “Due to Putin’s new laws regarding elevated punishment for dissection and surrender”

  7. This part of the Daily Mail post is something to keep an eye on.

    Attacks continued as Putin prepared to carve off parts of Ukraine and declare them to be Russian soil, as ‘voting’ in sham referenda closed today.

    The Russian despot is believed to be considering an address to the nation as early as Friday to announce that Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson have voted to become part of the ‘motherland’.

    While Ukraine, its Western backers and dozens of other world leaders have vowed never to recognise the votes, they will allow Putin to spin the lie to his own people that Russia itself is now under attack.

    That would open the door to further escalation, including – some fear – a nuclear strike either on Ukraine or its allies.

    Of course, that depends on how many Russians buy into the spin, now that more of them know what’s going on in Ukraine.

  8. I was wondering if Putin would allow mail-in ballots for his referendum.

    So many folk in so many countries believe so many lies.

    Democrats voting against impeaching for Pres. Clinton, for perjury, is part of the support for desirable lies over undesirable truth. But even Ted Kennedy’s smearing lies that were successful against Bork in the US SC hearings – those lies were rewarded.

    The EU and America should be willing to use economic penalties against any country using nuclear weapons to expand their territorial borders.

  9. From Vlad to troops: Miss muster three days running and you will be presumed to have deserted.

  10. Sorry, have been away.

    But while I am leery about a lot of the public announcements for obvious reasons, this is a smart approach. And for a few different reasons. Whether the Ukrainian gov’t knows it or not, this helps pre-empt the “Ukro Nazi” narrative.

    Something like two thirds of all Soviet POWs in WWII were captured in the first year and a half or so of Barbarossa. And they got horribly screwed, with the Nazis killing most of them in the camps. The Soviets and people in that sphere remember that a lot, and it is one reason why captures dropped off a ledge in the years to come and Soviets and others fought bitterly, largely for Stalin and a hated government.

    This helps short-circuit that. And it also humanizes the Ukrainian loyalists.

  11. Looks like Lyman is nearly surrounded. Operationally it is; the only road the Russians have is covered by artillery.

  12. …the Senate just advanced a spending bill with $35 million for the Department of Energy to “prepare for and respond to potential nuclear and radiological incidents in Ukraine.” What?
    The spending bill also brings the total U.S. expenditure on Ukraine, the war, but also funding its government and energy for Ukraine to $67 billion on the eve of what could be a massive economic disruption here to our economy, $67 billion. How much is that? Well, it’s more than Russia’s entire military budget last year, and Congress is expected to fully pass the bill later this week with Republicans nodding along like the zombies they are.

    A few billion more to Ukraine should do the trick, eh?

  13. Niki Proshin, a young Russian native who lived in St. Petersburg, and put up some interesting vlogs about life in Russia has recently vlogged about Putin’s “limited mobilization” and Russian’s reaction to it.

    Proshin, who as of a few days ago, was saying that he planned to stay in Russia, and not flee as a lot of young men were doing, has now turned up vlogging from Istanbul, where he plans—as of now–to stay for a few months.

    He reports that his ticket for a flight from St.Petersburg, via Moscow to Istanbul, which normally cost around $250 dollars cost him $1,500 dollars.

    See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQUXH-uLzdA

  14. @ Banned Lizard > “So once again, did the Biden administration really do this? It’s hard to believe. Given that it’s an atrocity, it’s effectively an act of terrorism, we don’t want to make that accusation, but we should tell you that maybe not coincidentally, today, a brand-new pipeline was unveiled, a pipeline that carries non-Russian natural gas in roughly the same areas, Nord Stream 1 and 2. This is called the Baltic Pipe. It was inaugurated in Poland. It will carry natural gas from Norway through Denmark to Poland and other countries nearby. And it’s likely to do very well, since now it has less competition.”

    Tucker suggests that Putin, if convinced the US or a European ally broke his pipelines, might retaliate by cutting undersea communication cables or even unleashing nuclear war.

    He might also just bomb the Polish pipes.

    Ten years ago (and I chose that number deliberately), I would have dismissed a lot of Carlson’s shows as hyperbolic click-bait conspiracy theories.
    These days, not so much.

    However, at the moment, no one has claimed responsibility (threats are just threats), Putin hasn’t explicitly retaliated regardless of what he might know or suspect, and the climatistas are not protesting the fouling of the environment because they are busy blaming Hurricane Ian on climate change (hey, maybe the pipeline methane set it off – who knows?)

    And IF a global-warming-posturing leftist cabal of any nationality engineered this leak, it’s only another instance of their complete indifference to any bad environmental consequence of their actions (windmills and solar fields that kill endangered bird species; minor children dying in precious metal mines; China’s coal plants given a pass; and of course their urgent need to fly private planes to conferences to lecture us about our fertilizer and methane-belching cows).

  15. @ Snow > “Proshin, who as of a few days ago, was saying that he planned to stay in Russia, and not flee as a lot of young men were doing, has now turned up vlogging from Istanbul, where he plans—as of now–to stay for a few months.”

    A couple of observations:
    When American men were fleeing to Canada to avoid the Vietnam War draft, I don’t recall the government threatening them with jail or worse, as Russia is doing.

    Likewise, when some of them came home after the Democrats threw away all the country’s hard-won victories, Presidents Ford and then Carter essentially gave a blanket pardon to the evaders, although deserters still could face charges (unlikely though that is).

    I don’t see Russia welcoming Proshin and his colleagues in flight back home with open arms in “a few months.”
    Open cells, if they come home soon; or a quiet repatriation in a few years, if Putin’s regime implodes.

    So, what is the world going to do with all these new asylum seekers?
    And, as someone else asked, will Russia slip a few of their own spies and saboteurs into the refugee stream?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_resisters_in_Canada

  17. An interesting view point — maybe no one blew up the pipelines — although if this is what happened, technically the Russians did it — just not on purpose.

    IF Putin doesn’t go after any specific country soon, it will be because he has nothing that can be remotely construed as evidence; if the explosions were due to faulty maintenance, he will eventually find out, although he might not admit it.

    Stay tuned.

    *PMCS: Preventative Maintenance Checks and Services
    https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

    Ok, the Nord pipeline incidents.
    …
    I call them “incidents” for a reason. I grew up in overseas oilfields. I try to, by training, observe everything from as objectively neutral a viewpoint as possible.

    In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”.

    “But, LawDog,” I hear you say, “It was multiple explosions!”

    Yes, 17 hours apart. No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart. Not without some Spec Ops guy having a fit of apoplexy. One pipe goes up in a busy shipping lane, in a busy sea, and everyone takes notice. Then you wait 17 hours to do the second — with 17 hours for people to show up and catch you running dirty? Nah, not buying it.

    The Nord pipelines weren’t in use. To me, that means it’s time for maintenance! Hard to maintain pipes when product is flowing.

    Pipelines running methane, under saltwater, require PMCS* quicker than you’d think, and more often than you’d believe.

    I would bet a cup of coffee that any of the required weekly and monthly checks and services since the Russians took over have been pencil-whipped.
    (See Andreev Bay 1982.)

    They officially shut it down in July of 2020 for maintenance, and had cornbread hell getting it back on-line, and “issues” with maintaining flow throughout the next year; shut it down again in July of 2021, with bigger “issues” — we say “issues” because the Russians won’t explain what these issues were — and even more problems, including unexplained, major disruptions in gas flow in Dec21/Jan22; Feb 22; and April 22.
    …
    Is there a possibility of sabotage? Yeah. Especially in the current world situation — but folks thought the Kursk went down because of hostile actions, too.

    So, yes, hostile actions are a possibility, but mass amounts of explosive hydrocarbon gas + 300 feet down under salt water + shoddy Russian maintenance = “Nobody could have possibly seen this coming”, and yet another entry into the extensive Wikipedia page on “Soviet/Russian disasters”.

    “But what issues could happen in an undersea pipeline that could cause ruptures?”

    Oh, my sweet summer child. Many, many, many. You might go far as to ask, “What issues won’t cause a rupture in an undersea pipeline?” — It’d be easier to list.

    However, in this case involving a natural gas pipeline under the pressure of 300 to 360 feet (8 atmospheres to 10 atm.) of water, I’d like you to turn your eyes towards a fun little quirk of nature called “methane hydrates”.

    Well, actually, I’d like you to meditate upon “hydrate plug”, but give me a moment.

    Under certain circumstances of pressure, temperature, and water presence natural gas/methane will form solid hydrates, with concomitant amounts of fun.

    For the Chinese definition of fun, anyway.

    Keeping hydrates from forming is a constant battle, requiring vigilance, expertise, diligence, and constant water removal. If any of these things slack at any time — you’re getting hydrate formation.

    The presence of solid hydrates in a pipeline can cause flow issues (causing cracks), destabilize the pipe itself (more cracks), and cause fires (bad. Very Bad), but the big issue (pun intended) is when you form enough hydrates that it blocks the pipe entirely (see: Hydrate plug, above).

    A hydrate plug is one massive pain in the tuchkiss to remove, and removal of said hydrate plugs is not a task to be undertaken by idiots, rank amateurs, morons, the terminally unlucky, or stupid people.

    The Recommended Best Practice to clear a hydrate plug is a vvveeerryyy slllooowww depressurisation from BOTH ENDS, SIMULTANEOUSLY.

    How slowly, you ask? For a pipeline the size of Nordstream we’re talking weeks.

    As the line reaches local atmospheric pressure heat is transferred to the plug from the environment, and the plug begins to melt, starting at the plug/wall interface.

    However, if you are a national gas company with institutional paranoia, a Nationalised aversion to looking weak or asking for help, and a Good Idea Fairy fueled by vodka — well, you can depressurise the pipe from one end.

    Doing so from one end does happen, but carrying it out requires a lot of very experienced people, luck (no, more than that), and the favour of multiple gods to pull off.

    If the Gods blink, or Jobu has a particular case of the hips at you, what generally happens is the hydrate plug will still melt at the plug/wall junction, but when it does, the pressurised side will launch the plug (five feet in diametre, and the same density as water ice) at almost 200 miles an hour down the pipe towards the depressurised side.

    When this plug bullet hits a bend in the pipe — well, it doesn’t stop, nor does it change direction easily. It’s going to make a hole.
    …
    If you’re lucky, the wall of the pipe will rupture before the ignition point … for various values of ‘lucky’.

    Another fun thing that occurs to usually-intelligent people is to “gently warm the area of pipe where the plug is”.

    Don’t do this. Methane hydrates disassociate really, really rapidly in the presence of heat. A pocket of gas will form somewhere inside the plug, next to the pipe wall, and the massive, localised pressure increase will rupture the pipe, spilling vapourised natural gas all over your heat source. (See “Bada-boom, above.)

    Funny enough, this actually happened in Siberia in 2000-ish. Pipeline got a nice-sized hydrate plug, and the muckity-mucks at Gazprom got annoyed at how long it was taking to deal with it.
    …
    Finally, for some reason, bureaucrats, politicians, amateurs, the alcohol-inspired, and idiots (but I repeat myself) always want to “Just blow that bloody plug out of the pipe”.

    Don’t do this. Ever. Just … don’t.

    … [more technical details]

    Yeah, it’s Russia. Those pipes are sodding well FULL of hydrates.

    Am I saying that there is no way that these incidents could possibly be the result of deliberate direct action? No. That area is too full of idiots — HOWEVER:

    It’s hundreds of millions of cubic metres of extremely flammable — nay, explosive — gaseous hydrocarbons being transported by Russians, and subject to Russian maintenance. And I’m here to tell you — Russian maintenance under the current oligarchy system isn’t any better than it was under the Soviet system.

    It blew up. Until I see evidence of bad actions, I’m going to shrug and say, “Damn. Must have been a day ending in “y”.

    “So, LawDog,” I hear you say, “What do you think happened?”

    Honestly, I suspect someone in the Russian government pinged Gazprom, and said, “The EU is about to have a cold winter. make sure those pipelines sodding well work, so we can sell someone natural gas at massively increased prices.”

    So, Somebody In Charge started running checks — and came up with hydrate slurry in both pipelines. After the running in circles, hyperventilating, and shrieking of curse-words stopped, somebody started trying to remediate both lines. Of course they didn’t tell folks down stream — no Russian want to look weak, and besides, there’s been a nasty uptick in failed Russian oligarchs getting accidentally defenestrated — they just unilaterally tried to Fix Things.

    It’s methane hydrate. Trust me, if there’s a hydrate plug, there’s more than one. With both pipes having no movement for months, if not a year, there were a metric butt-ton of hydrate plugs, slurry, and rime in both pipelines.

    The Fixing of Things went bad. One went Paws Up, and they started trying to stop the other — but pressurisation (both ways) is a weeks-long process, and the second went bad, too.

    It happens.

    Lots of technical details, but the bottom line is clear.
    It’s Science.

    * * *
    Russia: Been there, done that — got the Wikipedia Entry.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andreev_Bay_nuclear_accident
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_submarine_disaster
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urengoy%E2%80%93Pomary%E2%80%93Uzhhorod_pipeline

    And about that claim I quoted on another thread, that the CIA used to be better at their job than now: it’s been debunked.
    Maybe. If you trust anybody’s reports about anything these days.

    https://meaww.com/americas-hidden-stories-busting-myth-cia-involvement-trans-siberian-pipeline-explosion-1982

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