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Open thread 2/22/22 — 48 Comments

  1. President Barack Hussein Obama, October 22, 2012

    “Gov. Romney, I’m glad you recognize al-Qaeda is a threat, because a few months ago when you were asked what is the biggest geopolitical group facing America, you said Russia — not al-Qaeda. And the 1980’s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back — because the Cold War has been over for 20 years.”

  2. Weekly Covid update: Nationally cases continue steep downward trend; 14 rolling average of new cases/day now at -112k. Serious cases now at 0.03%, and in terms of absolute numbers serious cases decreasing at about 600/day.

    For the 6 states I follow, case data now starting to show the exponential tail. Cases averaged over the 6 states are 15 +- 5 % of the omicron peak number, with Georgia the clear winner at 6%.

    Deaths are a very different story. The 14 day rolling average percentage for the 6 states from the peak is 54 +- 30 %. The large variation can be seen in some examples: while Georgia is lowest in terms of cases, it is still at 68% of peak for deaths. There are two examples of extremes: Florida comes in at 6%! The real puzzle is Colorado which is still at 100% of peak and has been for 80 days with no change at all. This despite its case numbers now at 14% of peak. I was previously concerned about Connecticut, but the death rate is now at 39% of peak.

  3. I hear Kyle Rittenhouse is going to be suing a bunch of people including Whoopi Golberg. As a purely involuntary public figure, I wonder what his chances are?

  4. He was a private figure when these people chose to target him with their comments. Nick Sandmann has reportedly done well with his lawsuits. I hope Rittenhouse will, also. It would be a pleasure to see Whoopi Goldberg having to make a financial settlement for shooting off her big mouth.

  5. physicsguy, face it we here in CO are just weird.

    The 2 cty. that I live in/near have dropped Mask mandates. Been in stores the last two day in both cty’s and the majority of people have now stopped wearing the mask. Still some though, more in Boulder Cty of course. Schools are now mask free too.

  6. “physicsguy, face it we here in CO are just weird. ”

    LOL, well I grew up in Denver (Lakewood) and my brother is still there. Here in Florida the only places masks needed are health facilities. I just don’t understand the CO death numbers. With cases now down for well over a month now, there should be a downturn in the deaths.

  7. How in the world did I become “xh”.

    Delayed reporting?
    I mean CO has/had a reputation of being one of the healthiest state, low obesity rates, outdoor living, etc. Yes the rates should be going down, since so many Old People (like me) have died. See Nursing Home deaths.

  8. physicsguy and others,

    Have you looked at these reports of extremely high excess death rates by insurance companies?

    https://www.thecentersquare.com/indiana/indiana-life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-are-up-40-among-people-ages-18-64/article_71473b12-6b1e-11ec-8641-5b2c06725e2c.html

    Something like 12 sigma greater than old norms, and only roughly 1/3 are covid deaths. Didn’t we always think that covid deaths were overreported because of the deaths with covid? I believe the death rates are much higher in 2021 than in 2020. An obvious cause is all the ancillary lock-down stuff: unemployment, depression, drug abuse, obesity, and of course healthcare avoidance. Still … Was it that bad?

  9. If you ever wonder just how deliberately stupid people can be when their ego and self-image at stake, just read some of the posts/editorials today blaming TRUMP for what’s happening in Ukraine and expressing thanks that Biden is in charge.

    I can only imagine the panic going on in the Deep State right now as they realize Trump may have been an obstacle to their goals but Biden might literally collapse the post-Cold War global order.

    Mike

  10. “the only places masks needed are health facilities”
    Do you have any thoughts on that?”

    My guess is that they are following ADA, AMA, etc guidelines and won’t drop the requirement until those organizations, AND their lawyers, tell them to.

    TommyJay: I wonder if that is connected to the vaxes? Also, even though I use for the states their own DPH data, I’m not convinced any of this data is reliable anywhere near a 1-2 sigma level. General trends, probably OK.

  11. just read some of the posts/editorials today blaming TRUMP for what’s happening in Ukraine and expressing thanks that Biden is in charge.

    The level of cognative dissonance required by these commentators must almost be physically painful. Constantly blame shifting and covering for the obvious ineptitude of our leadership must be taxing indeed. Of course they can and will claim whatever they want. But as energy prices continue to soar and more and more everyday voters feel the pain, it no longer matters what narratives they try to spin up.

  12. Another Mike @10:11 am reminded me of this bit from a countercultural comic strip, “Odds Bodkins,” which appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle:
    _______________________________

    Once again it is that cosmic time … Tuesday after lunch.
    Rejoice … it comes once a week… so far.

    –Dan O’Neill, “Hear the Sound of My Feet Walking, Drown the Sound of My Voice Talking”
    _______________________________

    You could say it was a cross between Pogo and Doonesbury. My favorite characters were Hugh the Bird and the Bat-Winged Hamburger Snatcher.

    The strip was characterized by hippie whimsy with some politics.

    https://scontent-den4-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.18169-9/943237_588283541193055_1695634526_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=19026a&_nc_ohc=FrqwheGqbgIAX9QXFU0&_nc_ht=scontent-den4-1.xx&oh=00_AT-XEVF5Przkx_VwP4_4AJOv7rPh9GJKiT1CHJNKhG1nig&oe=6239B1D5

    O’Neill is still alive, but his recent work has been consumed with the usual hatred of Trump etc.

    Sad.

  13. The level of cognative dissonance required by these commentators must almost be physically painful.

    Probably not that painful. My advantage is that I’m so dull I can only see obvious stuff. If I were more imaginative I might be a Democrat.

  14. Rufus,

    Putin’s Russia was not and is not today our biggest security threat. China was and is a far greater threat. That Romney was wrong does not preclude Obama being wrong as well.

    Richard Aubrey,

    To what do you specifically refer?

  15. I’m beginning to wonder if we will even make it to the midterms, let alone summer. As Trump just indicated, what Russia just did gives the green light to China to move against Taiwan. We are moving ever closer to WWIII, and given the actors it will be nuclear. I’m right between Kings Bay and all the Jax facilities, so hopefully I’ll go in the first flash; hate to live in the aftermath.

  16. Hux: I’m another Odds Bodkins lover. I had the two books. There was precisely one funny strip. The rest were all whimsy.

    Spoiler: the funny strip had a joke about a lost hiker. If your path had discarded soda pop cans you were on a hiking trail and were fine. If you came across beer cans you were on a logging road and lost in the woods.

  17. physicsguy,

    Obviously no one can predict the future. I have no crystal ball. Yet I can’t see the Biden administration even risking war, much less going to war over Taiwan and the Ukraine. Lots of bluster and some lip service sanctions is all I expect.

    There won’t even be UN resolutions condemning them since Putin and Xi have veto power in the Security Council.

    But an unchecked Putin and Xi will signal the end of the Pax Americana, which will be the most serious impactful event for the world.

  18. Yet I can’t see the Biden administration even risking war, much less going to war over Taiwan and the Ukraine.

    Geoffrey Britain:

    Likewise.

    Perhaps I haven’t drilled deeply enough, but I rather suspect this is theatre all the way around. Biden, Putin and Xi all have good reasons to distract the world from their problems.

    I have the imrpession that B, P, and X share substantial common interests.

    So how about some old-fashioned brinksmanship followed by a happy ending. The world breathes a sigh of relief and experiences gratitude for our leaders’ steely resolve, yet openness to peace.

    Statesmen all. The Nobel Peace Prize announcement writes itself.

  19. Geoffrey Britain @ 4:15: “…Yet I can’t see the Biden administration even risking war, much less going to war over Taiwan and the Ukraine…”

    Agree. The Russians and Chinese have spent DECADES buying up our elites and compromising our moral and physical infrastructure (addictive data-scraping programs like TikTok; backdoors and viruses in software supplied by not-so-neutral IT experts; hacking of key systems; theft of key IP; plus lots of good old-fashioned espionage). Given this massive investment, why would they blow it up? Biden has done a reasonable imitation of Neville Chamberlain and I expect he will continue, as per contract.

  20. Owen, great point. I hadn’t consider that they would prefer to leverage what is already in place, and the people they have in their back pocket, to just take over Ala Trudeau.

  21. Re: Chinese.

    I ran across this article in my feed this morning:
    ______________________________

    The Flight of Big Tech:
    Lethargic, overcapitalized, and resigned to Chinese dominance, Silicon Valley is losing its productive talent to the Midwest and South

    –https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/flight-of-big-tech
    ______________________________

    “Resigned to Chinese dominance” touches a concern I’ve developed in the past year that our elites have decided they don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

    It’s a Chinese wind and that’s all right. They can work with that, They can make money and already have.

  22. May have said it elsewhere: In America, you can get bail for attempted murder of a political opponent.

    Neo, you mentioned Tories moving to Canada to avoid the Revolution. It happened. But one historian–name escapes me–said that, after such disturbances in other countries, various supporters of the ancien regime, whichever one it was, having dodged the headsman, if only figuratively, returned. Or stirred from their country estates.
    This eventually leavened the revolutionary ardor and provided a cohort of folks who Know How Things Are Done and who could fill the various governmental slots.
    They didn’t return to the US.

  23. huxley:

    To sort of quote a former President ‘never underestimate Brandon’s ability to f**k things up.’

    Brandon puts everyone at risk, P., Xi, we, everyone. Think August 1914 in 2022. Brandon and his junta of incompetence puts everyone at risk.

    No mean tweets is to blame of course.

  24. @GeoffreyBritain:

    Incorrect. Your greatest security threat is the United States Government.

    China is merely Not a Friend and a peer level competitor. China of course, like every other capable nation comprised of intelligent people, uses every means possible to subvert and control the direction of your foreign policy. Ask the late Sheldon Adelson and Geoffrey Epstein while you’re at it. Nothing Personal. Just Business. Capsice?

    China doesn’t want you and people who look and think like you dead. China is largely indifferent to whether you live or die. That’s a plus from where you sit in *your* national panopticon free range prison.

  25. I hear Kyle Rittenhouse is going to be suing a bunch of people including Whoopi Golberg. As a purely involuntary public figure, I wonder what his chances are?

    I wish Kyle well. However, I’m remembering what E. Howard Hunt said. He said he’d been a party to one defamation suit and whatever people said about him, he would never be a party to another.

    I’m hoping Kyle is working, learning new skills, and finding someone with whom to build a life. The arrow of time moves in one direction only.

  26. Art Deco:

    Rittenhouse may be hoping for a settlement, a la Sandmann.

    Rittenhouse may have a more difficult path, because he was in fact tried for the shootings. Sandmann hadn’t committed even a possible crime and wasn’t arrested for anything.

    That’s why Rittenhouse particularly mentioned statements some people had made after he was acquitted of the crimes with which he was charged. Those statements may give him his strongest cases.

  27. It is rich to read Z speaking for Xi, and of course bringing in the Jews again. And in a “two fer” as only Z “can do!” telling Geoffrey that we are in a Panopticon (hat tip Jeremy Bentham) when just the other day Z alluded to him being treated to Xi’s tender mercies if he speaks wrongly, and how great that is compared to we the proles.

    America isn’t Canada yet, but Z it seems has more to fear than even the Canadians. Stockholm syndrome in the far east keeps him tranquil? Or is it an requirement of his freedom to sing Xi’s tune?

    Simple questions from a prole.

    Apologies for the verbosity.

  28. Richard Aubrey on February 22, 2022 at 11:47 am said:
    DeathSantis needs more dead people. What the heck is he doing?

    Well, the air here in FL is just more antiseptic, I guess.
    Or a lot more infected people are just holding their breath.

  29. om on February 22, 2022 at 2:28 pm said:
    I think there should be a ballet post today, because tutus.

    Or perhaps “to be, or not to be” ??

  30. Happy Two’s Day! I thought it a pity that I didn’t have any pear juice to pass around with work folks at 2:22 p. m. But I did send off a celebratory text at exactly 2:22:22.2

    We won’t get another day like this until 2111, so it was worth playing up a bit.

  31. Beware of the odd WORDS, they say-

    The Federal government is going to remove the offensive word, “squaw” from the names of federal places + sites.

    I don’t blame these Govt. people for doing this, but who- born after 1980, in the US, has even heard the word, squaw?

  32. @TR:

    Squaw banned? Bbbuttt Muh Pythagoras!

    It’s been all downhill since Mynahs had anything to do with Staid Lions.

  33. @Zaphod

    I know, right?

    Next thing you know, these “up to date” people, will be interfering with my:
    black powder muskets, my Tomahawk throwing, + my going down the road and listening to Thomas Jefferson…giving his speeches!
    🙂

  34. @TR:

    A marble bust of Jefferson could come in handy in the same way that tomahawks and black powder muskets are better than nothing.

    But damn… these guys and their sense of priorities!

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