On Russia and Ukraine
I wish I had something more intelligent to say about the imminent crisis in Ukraine than “I don’t know what will happen.” I’ve read quite a bit about it and can’t get enough clarity on it to write an analytical post. There’s no source I especially trust on this, although I suppose someone‘s prediction will end up being right.
And so I decided to just put up this thread, with links (I like the title of this one, at least: “Only Putin Knows What Happens Next”; see also this and this).
/Speculation alert/
Still think it’s massive theater—specifically, it’s a sub-rosa agreement with Putin to create a white-phosphorous smokescreen for “Biden”, this to conceal all kinds of things, i.e., policies, that “Biden” needs to conceal and/or distract attention from (IOW, pretty much everything).
But this raises an intriguing question: Can “Biden”, that master of betrayal, actually rely on Putin to keep his part of the theatrical bargain?
/End speculation alert/
The only important questions around this current madness concern what this has to do with our national interests (absolutely nothing) and why the border between Russia and Ukraine is of so much more significance to worthless politicians in the swamp and to brainless pundits in the MSM than our porous southern border. Tulsi Gabbard, perhaps the only sane Democrat, has been speaking, sensibly and rationally, on this issue during several segments of Tucker’s program. For the illegitimate administration of the senile buffoon and the cackling hyena, this is indeed nothing but a (very dangerous) distraction, but the risks of a real conflict are very sobering, nor should one discount the corruption endemic in Ukraine and the connections of Biden’s family to such corruption.
Not much to say intelligently about the Ukraine or Russia.
We, the West, specifically, the last bastion of freedom, the United States of American rode them both hard and tried to put them up wet. It occurred with the Ukraine, our sponsored coup, but Russia said, “Nyet!” after our global corporations and specialized consultants that hate or, rather, have cynical antipathy to, their homeland fleeced many a Russian.
Kennedy put nukes within minutes of Moscow. The USSR tried to do the same in Cuba. Kennedy blinked and removed them. Crisis solved.
After the fall of the Wall and the USSR, we sent in people that got rich at their expense all in the name of capitalism.
The Ukraine got sucked into our evil, non-capitalistic scheme. Biden and his son were and are still heavily involved.
The Ukrainians seem to be relaxed about all this.
The Swamp loves conflict, military spending, important things to do.
How many billions are going to be added to future appropriations for arming Ukraine?
The Russia Times reviewed the situation recently and settled on the best course as smiling and waving. https://www.rt.com/russia/547943-west-proposed-security-guarantees/
Is all this an over-reaction to protect Biden from what might have happened?
Every side blames the other for lack of progress on the Minsk Accords. Russia is obviously not going to give up Crimea. What if we encouraged everyone to implement Minsk?
We should be making friends with Russia, isolating the CCP, cooperating with technology. Treating them like the old Soviet Union is ridiculous.
Defund the Swamp. Smile and Wave at Russia. Vacation in Crimea.
what this has to do with our national interests (absolutely nothing)
Thanx for the ex cathedra. Been an education.
It occurred with the Ukraine, our sponsored coup, but Russia said, “Nyet!” after our global corporations and specialized consultants that hate or, rather, have cynical antipathy to, their homeland fleeced many a Russian.
The only official who departed was Victor Yanukovich, and that because the men in uniform would not spill blood for him. His own political party did squat on his behalf. There have been six general elections held in the Ukraine since then. The Russophile element is good for about 16% of the vote and has a plurality only in the regions of Donetsk and Lukhansk.
Gabbard is certainly not speaking sanely or rationally. She’s just repeating the Cold War calumny that its the military industrial complex starting wars for their own profit.
The entire Carlson talking points just repeat those used by the Soviet Union and it’s allies/fellow travelers during the Cold War.
1. We’re all gonna die.
2. They’re just paranoid because of HItler and Napoleon.
3. The west is threatening the peace loving Russian people.
4. People who’ve experience hundreds of years of brutal Russian imperialism have no right to try and defend themselves with alliances with the west.
Putin does not want to invade the Ukraine. If he does invade it will be because the Biden administration and NATO forced him into it.
No more than the US could tolerate Soviet nuclear ICBMs 90 miles off our coast, so too for the Russians is it intolerable for NATO to be less than an 8 hour drive from Moscow. Elements within NATO are strongly pushing for the Ukraine’s membership In NATO. That despite a treaty with Russia explicitly banning it. Nor is the Biden administration, which certainly has veto power over NATO doing anything to discourage those elements pushing to extend NATO into the Ukraine.
I have no idea if Putin will try to swallow Ukraine entirely, or merely nibble off some of it at the edges. Swallowing it whole might prove a disastrous misstep. It was less than a century ago that so many died under Russian control. They haven’t wholly forgotten.
The thing about the “ West” defending some country on it’s periphery from Russia, is that the leaders of the West no longer believe Western Civilization should be defended. They want Western Civilization to surrender to non western cultures in the name of diversity . It is only residual cultural and political momentum that makes us care. After all, we are told, white nations must become more diverse and cease to be white. And Ukraine is white.
I am in a mood where I despise these leftist, multicultural, “ equity” pushing nuts.
Putin does not want to invade the Ukraine. If he does invade it will be because the Biden administration and NATO forced him into it.
This is a nonsense statement.
No more than the US could tolerate Soviet nuclear ICBMs 90 miles off our coast, so too for the Russians is it intolerable for NATO to be less than an 8 hour drive from Moscow.
The Ukraine is not a member of NATO and has no nuclear weapons. It’s an eight hour drive from Prague to Milan, but somehow the western powers managed to tolerate the Warsaw Pact for 35 years.
I never claimed that the Ukraine was part of NATO. To be generous, the blatant ‘misreading’ of a comment is an indication of biases in perception. And a bit of research will easily confirm that factions in NATO greatly desire incorporation of the Ukraine into NATO.
Nor did I ever claim that the Ukraine currently possesses nuclear weapons. Weapons however, that with NATO membership could be easily provided.
The western powers managed to tolerate the Warsaw Pact for 35 years by emplacing a powerful American force in Germany, presenting the Soviets with the strategic consequence that invasion would result in a high probability of nuclear war.
“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish!” Euripides
Nor did I ever claim that the Ukraine currently possesses nuclear weapons. Weapons however, that with NATO membership could be easily provided.
–Geoffrey Britain
Not to contradict GB. Just tagging on:
____________________________
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine held about one third of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, the third largest in the world at the time, as well as significant means of its design and production. 130 UR-100N intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with six warheads each, 46 RT-23 Molodets ICBMs with ten warheads apiece, as well as 33 heavy bombers, totaling approximately 1,700 warheads remained on Ukrainian territory.[3] Formally, these weapons were controlled by the Commonwealth of Independent States.[4] In 1994 Ukraine agreed to destroy the weapons, and to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine
____________________________
Bet Ukraine would like a do-over on that choice.
History has shown the world that agreeing to give up nuclear weapons is a bad choice. We will get more of what incentivize.
I suspect we will eventually regret this.
Dear Tucker,
We know you don’t give a rat’s butt whether Ukraine is re-incorporated or newly incorporated into the Russian Satellite Empire. Please indicate which of the following you don’t give a rat’s butt about either:
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Slovakia, Czech Rep, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldavia, parts of Turkey, the Stans, Germany, Austria.
Next week we’ll ask if you give a rat’s butt about Taiwan into the Chinese Empire or Israel into the Islamofascist Empire. Israel is the interesting one since you never, ever talk about it. Too many of your viewers take the Pat Buchanan view of the “Amen” lobby?
All of the news about the Ukraine seems awfully over-generalized to me – smacking of some kind of propagandistic groundwork being laid. We now it’s about the Ukraine. We are told Russia is massing troops on the border. We are told invasion is imminent…
All very interesting. Why?
It’s not terribly easy to get any insight, is it? Here is a thread that I found at least a little helpful. It’s about the Ukraine, with a province deciding maybe they would like to part ways and become part of Russia, and maybe Russia has already done a little legislative groundwork to facilitate this. Ah ha! International Intrigue and dirty tricks. An Industrial Oblast in Eastern Ukraine, right up against the Motherland. That’s more like it.
https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1492561679175106571
I was unaware that Tucker Carlson perused this blog.
But presenting reasoned arguments why the US should not risk getting into a war with Russia is hardly indifference to those people’s possible fate.
Implying that America should sacrifice its people’s blood and treasure likewise for “Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Slovakia, Czech Rep, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldavia, parts of Turkey, the Stans, Germany, Austria” is a pure neocon argument.
A few of those nations respect humanity’s inalienable rights but a number of them do not.
As for Taiwan and Israel, the US does have a strategic interest in those nation’s continued independence. Taiwan for its computer chip prowess and Israel as both the sole truly democratic nation in the M.E. and as a highly valuable technological resource. Israel is also evil’s focus in the world as the numerous condemnatory UN resolutions demonstrate.
BTW, I am not a fan of Buchanan’s simplistic analysis.
Aggie,
Propaganda indeed, designed to distract from domestic ‘issues’.
What could seize the attention of the voters more surely than the prospect of being upon a nuclear precipice?
I wish that I did not believe that Biden would eagerly sacrifice the life of my active duty military child in a meaningless and unwinnable war over Ukraine just to distract Americans from the domestic disaster that is his presidency.
But I do believe this.
I wish that I did not believe that Biden would eagerly sacrifice the life of my active duty military child in a meaningless and unwinnable war over Ukraine just to distract Americans from the domestic disaster that is his presidency.
But I do believe this.
Biden hardly knows whether he’s coming or going. Aim you’re ire at his wife, at Ron Klain, and at the clown trio of Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan.
A few of those nations respect humanity’s inalienable rights but a number of them do not.
None of them are more abusive than the governments of the country you live in.
I never claimed that the Ukraine was part of NATO. To be generous, the blatant ‘misreading’ of a comment is an indication of biases in perception.
I misrepresented nothing. Your remarks make no sense unless it is assumed that you thought the Ukraine was a member of NATO or had nuclear weapons.
The western powers managed to tolerate the Warsaw Pact for 35 years by emplacing a powerful American force in Germany, presenting the Soviets with the strategic consequence that invasion would result in a high probability of nuclear war.
Russia has nuclear weapons and spends about 4% of its domestic product on its military. It’s not actually in danger of being invaded by Poland.
1. Russia has introduced Russian nationals into it’s empire for hundreds of year as an excuse for it’s imperialism. It’s an excuse, not a reason.
2. Calling something neo-con does not automatically invalidate the argument. The neo-con hope that all people’s share Western ideals of liberty has been proven to be, at best, naïve. The neo-con view that a world of rogue nations forging new empires ultimately is a threat to us is not.
3. “meaningless and unwinnable wars” has become the macro on some people’s keyboards joining “insurrection”, “racist” on others. The resistance to Soviet and Chinese Communist expansion may have been “unwinnable” in the conventional sense but was the proper and moral policy. Removing Sadam Hussein was not meaningless; it’s removed a megalomaniac’s army a few hours from a significant part of the world’s energy supply as well as removing a major destabilizing element in the Middle East.
4. If Tucker, who gets much right, has show anything other than total indifference to the fate of people in the new Russian empire, I’ve missed it while matching his show regularly. I’ve heard much more, in Marxist/new Left style, about Rytheon’s profits.
5. To say some people don’t share Western ideals does not mean they deserve their fate.
Speculation (continued)….:
…But what if the current episode of the “Biden”-Putin Show has NOT exactly been planned (as previously formulated) to create a very obvious global crisis (just another “Biden” crisis) as a way of greatly assisting “Biden” to cover up…everything? Um, not exactly.
IOW, what if the crisis has been contrived not so much to enable both “leaders” to climb down from their respective “trees”, after a sufficient period of rather well-acted brinksmanship has elapsed; but is, in fact, MEANT to INCLUDE some hot, though limited (as in “choreographed”?) skirmishing?
What might this achieve?
Well, for one, all the above-mentioned covering up and distracting that has already been mentioned…as well as the “climb down” part of the original script, only this time after the contrived skirmishing is “over”—with both sides agreeing to end “hostilities” (while claiming definite “victory” each in their respective way).
But if the country is “at war” (supposed a real one, not a choreographed one—keeping in mind that no one is supposed to know about this latter aspect), then what might the “GAIN OF FUNCTION”(TM) be? That is,—and this is a rhetorical question—might being “AT WAR” more deleteriously affect America’s “enemies” at home? (i.e., “Biden”‘s “internal enemies/insurrectionists/Deplorables/policy disapprovers)—keeping in mind that “the nation” is “at war”?…And keeping in mind the latest DOJ definition of “Enemy of the People”?—
“The proliferation of false or misleading narratives, which sow discord or undermine public trust in U.S. government institutions.”
https://www.newsmax.com/michaeldorstewitz/dhs-garland/2022/02/11/id/1056506/
IOW, “criticism”/”opposition”/”insurrection” DURING “WAR TIME” might just be what “Biden” needs at the moment…with all those many plates he’s juggling up in the air.
But gosh, all this sounds more than a bit over the top. Crazy. Insane. I mean how might one go about choreographing such a thing?….
Well, um that’s a good point, actually…. It is crazy.
…On the other hand…
How does one go about choreographing a pandemic?
How does one go about choreographing a stolen election?
How does one choreograph an INSURRECTION the formidable danger and profound seriousness of which hasn’t been witnessed since the attack on Fort Sumter (or if that’s simply too absurd, then since the attack on Pearl Harbor)?
How does one choreograph the multi-pronged, multi-level, multi-continental attempted take-down of an American president?
How does one choreograph massive and unprecedented illegal immigration?
How does one choreograph massive inflation?
How does one choreograph massive—if mythical—rioting, looting and violence?
How does one choreograph the massive influx of fentanyl within one’s “borders”?
How does one choreograph a huge military and foreign policy debacle (while calling it a tremendous success)?
How does one choreograph civil war?
And…”How can [one] know the dancer from the dance?”
Oops!
– “supposed” should be “supposedly”
– Also, should be: “…with all those many plates he’s juggling up in the air…and an election coming up.”
(Just in case anyone’s forgotten that “Biden” plays for the highest of high stakes…)
Just a bit more to distract from….
“Trump accuses Hillary Clinton campaign of TREASON after Special Counsel John Durham said they paid tech firm to hack into his White House and Trump Tower servers to find Russia links”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10506599/Hillary-Clintons-campaign-paid-tech-firm-infiltrate-Trump-Tower-White-House-servers.html
And so, time for Garland to pull the plug on (or the rug from under) the special investigator—made much easier should “war” “break out”?
(…unless, of course, “Biden” believes it’s time to pull the plug on America’s very own “Queen of the Night”….)
IMHO (and note that my opinions are very seldom humble), the arguments on this issue tend to be simplistic and one-sided.
Yes, the Russians are paranoid. They remember not only the French and the Germans, but also the Mongols. Not to mention the Ukrainians and Poles, when those two nations were rather stronger.
And yes, Russia’s neighbors are paranoid about Russia, which was relentlessly expansionist since Ivan I “Moneybags,” who used collaboration with the Mongol conquerors to further Moscow’s power.
And both Russia and it’s neighbors have a problem: nationalism is one of the strongest forces known to psychology, but so is the “my land, we will die for it” phenomenon. The population of the former Soviet Empire and its peripheral countries are full of little ethnic groups that are somewhat foreign to the surrounding population. This worked well enough in pre-railroad days, as most people never traveled far from their place of birth, almost all communication was verbal, and interaction between groups was low. Since the introduction of the railroad and electric telegraph, it doesn’t work at all.
The obvious answer is to consolidate the ethnic/language/cultural groups into separate countries. Alas, this runs into opposition from the Imperial ruling group AND from the ethnic minority, both of whom say ‘That’s OUR land/people, you can’t make us give it up’. (The majority loses land and people when the new country is created, the minority loses land when they’re forced to move to consolidate into a continuous country).
In the specific case here, the Russians regard citizens and territory of Ukraine THEIRs, because they’ve ruled them in the past. The Ukrainians regard the citizens and territory of Ukraine as THEIRS, because they ruled both recently. But Ukraine has its own ethnic minorities, and many of them would rather be Russians, if only because ethnically a lot of them ARE Russians. Ukraine whines about Russian imperialism, but is silent about its own.
The best interest of the U.S. seems to me to discourage all imperialism, but NOT at the cost of war (especially war with a nuclear power). That means using what non-military tools we have against BOTH sides, in an effort to persuade both sides to stop fighting, and start adjusting their populations and territories to a state of least irritation. Given how unpleasant this will be for both of them, we are IMO, best off discouraging Russia from invading and conquering Ukraine, but allowing it to keep annoying the Ukrainians with border incidents and separatist combat till the Ukrainians give up some of ‘their’ territory where it borders Russia, which will relieve the worst of Ukraine’s problems with its own minorities.
This is going to be “unprincipled” and “cynical” and “messy,” but it does appear to be the least worst situation from everyone’s point of view, and thus relatively stable once achieved. Don’t hold your breath waiting, though.
Might there be a pattern here?…
Hillary Cinton:
“We will not allow Trump to steal the 2020 election.”
https://www.the-sun.com/news/1522171/hillary-clinton-trump-steal-election-podcast-2020/
“Biden”:
“We will not allow Putin to invade Ukraine.”
“https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/surreal-plot-twist-ukraines-president-demands-proof-us-over-russian-invasion-claims”
…One must seriously hope not; but it should raise some eyebrows.
File under: Modus Operandi?
I don’t dismiss neocons entirely, some have forgotten that military intervention is the last resort, not the first, so our campaigns in the Sandbox made sense, but there was no end objective, and hence we find ourselves with one down in Afghanistan, and a hostile regime in Iraq
the tangled history of the Crimea, how Russia and Turkey sparred for it, over 6 wars, suggest the former would never give it up, would we give us Texas, which was contested in only two, three if you count Pancho Villa, Considering recent history, NATO expansion was not necessarily crazy, Poland had been a polish
colony for nearly a 100 years, once insider territorial russia is another matter entirely,
Interesting little tidbit from Instapundit, actually Jeff Dunetz’ “The Lid” – retired Russian military are opposed to the invasion of the Ukraine. Maybe just noise, but it dovetails with my suspicion that Putin has been grandstanding all along. The Russian takeover of Ukraine has been “imminent” for about 8 years now.
Here’s an idle conspiracy theory: Putin will “cave” on Ukraine and give Biden a “victory” for the purpose of shoring him up against Trump/Republicans who want to ramp back up US energy production to Russia’s detriment.
In the specific case here, the Russians regard citizens and territory of Ukraine THEIRs, because they’ve ruled them in the past. The Ukrainians regard the citizens and territory of Ukraine as THEIRS, because they ruled both recently.
Uh, no. The Ukrainians regard the Ukraine as theirs because they live there.
But Ukraine has its own ethnic minorities, and many of them would rather be Russians, if only because ethnically a lot of them ARE Russians. Ukraine whines about Russian imperialism, but is silent about its own.
About 17% of the population identifies itself as Great Russian. During the period running from 1991 to 2014, they formed a majority only in the Crimea and in some border municipalities. The Crimea was seized by Russia in 2014, as were some of the border municipalities.
The remainder of the ethnic minority population is < 5% the total and distributed between a mess of tiny subpopulations, none of them exceeding 1% of the total population of the country and none of them concentrated enough to form a majority anywhere. There is a White Russian population that numbers about 300,000; they're the only minority population which has any particular affinity for Great Russians.
Again, there is no organized advocacy within the Ukraine in favor of incorporation into Russia and survey research indicates that option is favored by < 5% of the population. There are two political parties of note who favor a Russophile orientation in foreign policy, but they're not promoting merger with Russia.
The population of the former Soviet Empire and its peripheral countries are full of little ethnic groups that are somewhat foreign to the surrounding population.
Actually, no. The only ethnic minorities in the post-Soviet states which form a double-digit share of the population of the country in which they live would be Russians in Estonia, Russians in Latvia, Russians in Kazakhstan, Russians in the Ukraine, Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan, and Slavs in Moldova. The modal pattern in all post-Soviet states is that their is a plurality nationality whose account for between 65% and 90% of the population and ethnic minority populations which are cut up between an array of small subgroups.
Outside the Russian Federation, Russians form a majority in the city of Narva in Estonia and in some border counties in Kazakhstan and in some aforementioned border municipalities in the Ukraine.
Russia itself has ethnic minorities. The only minorities (1) concentrated enough to form a majority in a contiguous bloc of territory and (2) number in that territory in excess of 900,000 people would be found in Bashkorostan in the Urals, Tatarstan in the Urals, Chuvashia in the Urals, and Chechenya in the Caucasus. A complex of small Turkic populations form the majority in Daghestan in the Caucasus. The Ural republics are completely surrounded by Russia and quite far from any other party. The two Caucasus republics are dirt poor.
They remember not only the French and the Germans, but also the Mongols. Not to mention the Ukrainians and Poles, when those two nations were rather stronger.
Russia issues demands not because they are afraid, but because they wager they can intimidate. As for the small east European states, their experience of being subjugated (nay, brutalized) by Russia is a tad more recent than that of whoever or whatever was dispossessed by the Polish-Litbuanian Commonwealth.
“Biden”‘s getting ready to protect the Super Bowl from…INSURRECTIONISTS (no doubt)….
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/skies-above-super-bowl-protected-fighter-jets-fans-be-surprised-never-seen-formation
Durham POUNCES(?)
…as the strands of the Russiagate PLOT thicken.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bigger-watergate-trump-furious-after-durham-spy-scandal-bombshell-demands-prosecutions
And the Corrupt Media is silent (most likely trying to figure out the “best” way to spin it all—into oblivion?—and then collude on spewing the same message).
Hans Mahncke and Glenn Greenwald have noted that one major reason for this “nothing-to-see-here” cold stone silence on the part of
the media is that “Biden”‘s National Security(!) Adviser, Jake Sullivan is implicated TRULY, MADLY, DEEPLY, in sabotaging relations with Russia by having pushed the false flag Russia connection (not that he remembers anything about it, of course, at least not all that clearly…since it was all so long ago and far away, and besides, he had nothing important to do with it and besides that he was taken out of context…but most importantly, Orange Man Very, Very Bad…).
Hey, maybe THAT’S the reason for the current Ukraine “CRISIS”….
Since gives Sullivan and “Biden” a chance to kill several birds with a single stone! (Or does it?)
What’s wrong with this picture? Putin, president of Russia, says he is not going to invade Ukraine. Zelensky, president of Ukraine, says Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. Biden, puppet president of U.S., says Russia is going to invade Ukraine.
The only real surprise is that our congressional overlords think we are too dumb to realize they are skipping the needle on the record to a tune that allows them to cash in with the military industrial complex and give Biden an opportunity to look strong and commanding.
They are dumb. Even dumber than us.
This could be good.
A necessary reminder (AKA blast from the past):
“How Russiagate Began With Obama’s Iran Deal Domestic Spying Campaign.
“Michael Flynn posed a threat to the former president’s legacy and was made to pay for it”
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/russiagate-obama-iran
H/T
Instapundit
https://instapundit.com/503286/
Key grafs:
“Of course, as now know, both Hillary and Obama read Orwell’s book as a how-to guide:
– How Russiagate Began With Obama’s Iran Deal Domestic Spying Campaign.
– Clinton campaign paid to ‘infiltrate’ Trump Tower, White House servers to link Trump to Russia: Durham.
– Obama’s Campaign Paid $972,000 To Law Firm That Secretly Paid Fusion GPS In 2016.”
As someone whose first impulse is to look for financial motives to explain behaviour, Russia, despite the costs of moving/maintaining the personnel/equipment along the Ukraine border, certainly benefits from the increase in the price of its energy exports that the threat of conflict supports.
Could this all be simple market manipulation?
Couple of observations about earlier comments:
Few wars have been won as thoroughly as WW II. Enemies smashed flat, big shots hanged, occupied by large numbers of troops for an undetermined period, institutions remade from dog catcher on up. And then, without much of a seam, the occupation–should it have been planned to end–continued due to the Cold War.
West Germany didn’t just have US troops. Other NATO members had permanent or temporary presence, sometimes to use maneuver areas. And they were all representatives of nations the Germans had attacked. Imagine seeing a Belgian AT platoon running a red light on the way to a firing range.
I submit this picture is what many look for in whether we “win” a war. Many objectives can be achieved without such thoroughness. Many have.
WRT Afstan, you can’t win a war against an enemy which has a sanctuary. Best you can do is hold what you want with the least cost. Point is whether there is something there which is sufficiently valuable.
Ukraine is a fabulously wealthy area in any number of areas from iron and coal, oil and rare or almost rare metals. Grain, of course. Taking it, one way or another, might repay the cost for Putin. This is particularly true as what he would get there is likely to be obstructed in its extraction by western Greens if it’s in their countries. One founder of Greenpeace remarked that, with the collapse of the Soviet government, many western leftists went green.
And there is always the example of not resisting the Germans in the Rhineland in 1936.
I agree with Geoffrey Britain’s version of events outlined in his 7:31pm comment, and I have heard Gabbard make the same point. I think she speaks very rationally on this subject, jvermeer.
Biden could stop the threat of an invasion by simply convening with the other NATO countries and stating there is no current plan to admit Ukraine to NATO.
If Mexico or Canada entered a military alliance with North Korea and Iran would we be passive? If Russia were sponsoring such an alliance would Russia be blameless in escalating any military action that may result from such an alliance?
West TX Intermediate Crude,
May God keep your child safe and God bless him or her for their service!
And there is always the example of not resisting the Germans in the Rhineland in 1936.
Richard Aubrey:
Exactly.
I haven’t done the calculation for Ukraine recently, but I say, wait a minute, when the NeverNeocons (for whom I have about as much respect as NeverTrumpers) casually dismiss all concern should would-be hegemons like Russia or China invade Ukraine or Taiwan and it’s none of America’s business.
Maybe yes, maybe no. I say the answer is, it depends.
Wouldn’t most people agree today that the French or English would have been better off taking a stand when the Nazis remilitarized the Rhineland in 1936?
It’s hard work to make decisions on a case-by-case basis instead of looking it up in the NeverNeocon or AlwaysNeocon manual, but such work is unavoidable IMO.
Jeanne,
One of the most insightful things I’ve read in a while.
deckhand_dreams, “Could this all be simple market manipulation?”
It certainly could.
I have been working with some Ukrainians lately, as recently as Friday (teleconferencing remotely, as they are in the Ukraine). I have not brought up a possible incursion by Russia because that seems like a very forward thing to ask about on a business conference call, but they also have not mentioned the subject. At all. And there is a fair amount of free and non-business discussion. They could either be putting on a courageous face, or sincerely do not see it as imminent. Or, they may not be concerned that the Russians would disrupt things much. I honestly have no idea, but I find their calmness fascinating. I pray that they remain safe.
Rufus T. Firefly:
I’ve heard “Wag the Dog” speculation — that the Biden administration is hoping to distract attention from its numerous failures in the face of the oncoming midterms with a foreign policy crisis, even a war.
For those who haven’t watched “Wag the Dog,” I recommend it. Robert De Niro and Dustin Hoffman play a spin doctor and Hollywood producer respectively, who, at behest of the White House, concoct a war in Albania to distract attention from a presidential sex scandal.
David Mamet was one of the screenwriters. It was back in the 90s when Hollywood could be critical of liberal presidents.
huxley
Thomas Sowell, in “Intellectuals and Society”, a book of essays on same, has one on intellectuals and war and goes heavily into the ’36 issue. Tough to read.
Two things about it interest me. Had “one French platoon”, or at least a battalion, resisted and the Germans gone home and canned Hitler…likely no war. Even later on, they knew they had less potential combat power v. their potential enemies than they were short v. their enemies in WW I–which said generals took part in losing.
So they’d likely not have started something without Hitler.
So. Fifty years on, how do historians characterize this? Sordid victor’s vengeance? Struggle for markets? Military industrial complex? Wouldn’t/couldn’t know then or later. Which is to say….can’t know which next venture prevents WW III.
Sowell does give the French some slack. WW I was the first war in which more guys died of combat than of disease. They’d gotten a handle on field sanitation. (See Zinnser, Rats, Lice and History). And they got a handle on sepsis. Wounds which could be survived under the medical knowledge of the time still resulted in death from septic infection. So, instead of them being honored names on the walls of little country churches–did I mention cosmetic and reconstructive surgery didn’t exist–they were your uncle in the upstairs bedroom who couldn’t manage his own hygiene.
The French built resorts for guys who were so hideously mutilated they wouldn’t come out in public. And a woman, maybe more than one, made detailed faces on ceramic masks which could be worn when in public.
You want more of that less than twenty years later?
But, still…. we had WW II.
Biden could stop the threat of an invasion by simply convening with the other NATO countries and stating there is no current plan to admit Ukraine to NATO.
Thanks for the issue of your imagination.
Ukraine is a fabulously wealthy area in any number of areas from iron and coal, oil and rare or almost rare metals.
Rubbish. The Ukraine is a middle-income country which has had for 30 years just about the the most disappointing economic performance of any post-communist state not engulfed in intramural warfare. Their wealth, like just about every other place in the world this side of the Persian Gulf, is to be found in their human capital. Land and resources aren’t beanbag, but human capital is where it’s at. What they would benefit from is adjustments in institutions and culture which would unlock the human capital they have and accelerate the acquisition of more human capital.
Art. Not talking about median family income or something., but about extractive resources available if somebody can get said extraction organized.
Art. Not talking about median family income or something., but about extractive resources available if somebody can get said extraction organized.
I’m not talking about median family income either. I’m talking about what generates goods and services in your economy. In an ordinary occidental economy, extractive industries account for about 3% of value added and agriculture about 2%. There are countries with contextually large mining and petroleum sectors (Russia and Norway to name two). That generates challenges.
Art Deco,
No need to thank me, you are quite welcome. My pleasure. Glad I was of some help.
Ukraine has ALWAYS been the “breadbasket” of Europe.
Also has considerable mineral resources.
(And considerable corruption….)
Ukraine has ALWAYS been the “breadbasket” of Europe.
What share of caloric intake in Europe was satisfied by Ukrainian exports ca. 1913?
“What happened to Ukraine after Kievan Rus fell?
“Its territory was carved up by competing powers, who prized the fertile plains and rich, dark soil that later earned Ukraine the nickname “the breadbasket of Europe.” Catholic Poland and Lithuania dominated the country for hundreds of years, but by the end of the 18th century Imperial Russia had grabbed most of Ukraine, except for Galicia, which was controlled by the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The czars referred to their dominion as “little Russia” and tried to crush surging Ukrainian nationalism in the 1840s, banning the use of the Ukrainian language in schools….”
https://theweek.com/articles/449691/ukraines-fraught-relationship-russia-brief-history”
“…Throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, Ukraine was known as the breadbasket of Europe and later of the Soviet Union. Its rich soil and ample fields made it an ideal place to grow the grain that helped feed the entire continent….”
https://theconversation.com/famine-subjugation-and-nuclear-fallout-how-soviet-experience-helped-sow-resentment-among-ukrainians-toward-russia-175500
Score one for deckhand_dreams. From the WSJ this morning, “Russian Invasion Peril Is Driving Oil Prices Near $100”
FOAF, just more proof (if one needs it) how helpful “Biden” can be to “his” friends.
(And further proof that “Biden” is no friend either to America or its currently gobsmacked “allies”—gobsmacked because they no doubt have been believing the Corrupt Media since at least 2009.)
Jake Sullivan….again and why the Corrupt Media’s silence about him and “Biden”‘s overall massive corruption is both a scandal and PERFECTLY UNDERSTANDABLE… (hint: they’re all in on it together….)
https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1492902125852049409?cxt=HHwWgoCy_duk7bcpAAAA
And a summing up by Glenn Greenwald on the TRUE PURVEYORS of “disinformation, misinformation and malinformation”(TM)….
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1492864130579107843?cxt=HHwWhsC4kY2B3LcpAAAA
So will there be war to save “Biden”‘s ass, and Hillary’s? (And to enrich Putin’s?)
Or “just” an extended litany of histrionics, threats, brinksmanship and headlines?
(Sounds like win-win-win for “Biden”, Putin, Hillary AND the Corrupt media!!)
+ Bonus question:
How much of there is left to loot, burn and trash in LA?
How much of there is left to loot, burn and trash in LA?
Los Angeles County voted for George Gascon. There are those therein who’ve earned their suffering and those who should get out of town before they’re turned into a pillar of salt.
What will happen? Power politics dictates that power has the prerogatives. The EU has the army of the Pope, or near none.
Why would Putin take Russian Ukraine? To keep the EU away from Ukraine and ensure the survival of his patronage system for decades to come because he’ll control not just Europe’s energy but her breadbasket of auxiliary wheat as well.
Patronage is the Russian oligarch’s grift. A more competitive system like the EU’s lacks the same centralized grift. Rulers enjoy their prerogatives. Thus. They about costly change. And secure Rulers don’t have to.
Putin’s taken Crimea to secure warm water ports for Russia before. So of course, if weather aligns to make victory sure, Putin will grab more again — and in weeks.
Real politik.
Geoffrey Britain avers, near the top: “Putin does not want to invade the Ukraine. If he does invade it will be because the Biden administration and NATO forced him into it.”
That’s a Chomskyite claim that’s ridiculous because it’s reversal of cause and effect is bizarre and nonsensical And far beaneath the standards of clear thinking you persistently display.
Why would Putin take Russian Ukraine? To keep the EU away from Ukraine and ensure the survival of his patronage system for decades to come because he’ll control not just Europe’s energy but her breadbasket of auxiliary wheat as well.
The EU has had 30 years to get ’round to capturing the Ukraine. They’ve been taking their time, perhaps because the Ukraine’s gross domestic product in nominal terms is less than that of the Czech Republic.
Russia accounts for 11% of the world’s petroleum exports. Note, trade is mutually beneficial. It’s not equally beneficial for the parties transacting. Still, you have to absorb injuries to yourself if you want to impose an embargo. The majority of Russia’s export revenue is consequent to fuel and mineral exports.
Agricultural products account for just shy of half of the Ukraine’s export revenue or about $23 bn. There are 707 million Europeans outside of the Ukraine. Even if all of their output was bought by Europeans, it would still amount only to $32 per person per year worth of Ukrainian foodstuffs and raw materials.
Dog being wagged. It’s a setup.
But never underestimate Brandon’s ability to f things up. Only the cool kids actually running the Brandon junta are bigger f ups than he and she. The Dunning-Kreuger junta.
If Putin is bluffing as I suspect I bet he’s getting a *really* big kick out of stringing everyone along, especially our dimwitted POTUS.
My former grandparent in laws immigrated from Ukraine, were very nationalistic about it. My ex-wife was born here, but grew up speaking Ukrainian, hung out in Ukrainian neighborhoods, and we were married in a Ukrainian church. My own kid speaks Ukrainian and I’ve been there myself. I heard hours and hours of Ukrainian nationalism over a decade period.
The cities are like any in Europe: Prada, Gucci, BMWs in the streets. But the country is literally over 100 years ago with peasants in the fields using scythes and horse carriages to take things to market. These are literal things I saw with my own eyes.
But I really don’t care what happens there as it’s not our problem, in an area with a thousand years of history that few in the US understand.
The closest metaphor that an American can understand is that Ukraine is like the Confederacy. It was once part of a larger nation and broke away and has deep pride, honor and much to admire. But it’s a really weak, poor state that maybe has no business being on its own. If it’s reabsorbed by force, well that is what happens historically.
For the US to sit there and say it’s “vital” is BS. It’s none of our business and a waste of our time, money and lives if we try to get in the way, like every foreign engagement the US has tried over the last 50 years.