Making election prognostications
I have a natural tendency to be pessimistic about elections. This has been accentuated in recent years by the closeness of so many recent ones, and a growing distrust of polling. But that doesn’t mean I don’t take polls into consideration – I do. An when every poll predicts a Biden win, it’s hard not to be disheartened.
I don’t think the polls are necessarily wrong, either, although I just don’t know – and neither does anyone else. One can argue back and forth about it for a long, long time. There are points made about “shy Trump voters” and the like, but we don’t know the extent of that phenomenon. What we do know is that the polls are telling a bad story.
It’s even a frightening story. For a host of reasons, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are probably the two worst national candidates I’ve ever seen in my lifetime. They’re also tremendously unappealing, and their voters don’t even like them, for the most part. And yet at least half of Americans and maybe more are prepared to vote for them or have already done so.
And that’s because they hate Trump even more.
I’m not going to spend a lot of time now talking about why, because we’ve discussed it already so many times before. Let’s just say it’s a combination of the media, celebrities, the educational system, social media, and the naturally abrasive and rather unconventional personality of Donald Trump himself.
Let us not forget, either, that if the Democrats don’t win fair and square in the voting, I believe they are fully prepared to game the mail-in voting system which they insisted on setting up. That might include dead registrants, as well as this sort of thing.
I have thought for quite some time now that the continued drumming up of COVID panic even as the number of deaths and serious cases falls, is partly in order to expand the use of mail-in voting and therefore of fraud.
Ordinarily there’s a limit to how much fraud can be committed, but the sky’s the limit now in mail-in states. Report of people getting multiple ballots, and of people who no longer live at a certain address getting ballots there, seem rampant. The states that ordinarily have this method of automatically sending ballots to everyone on the voter rolls, whether requested or not (dead or alive) are: Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, and Utah. Utah is the only one that’s Republican, and in the others I don’t think Trump has any kind of chance at all to win. Belatedly joining their ranks this year are California, New Jersey, Vermont, DC (not a state – yet) and Nevada. The first three are deep deep blue, but although in 2016 Nevada went to Hillary Clinton, it was only by a couple of points. So Nevada could be a state where this method of voting and the potential for fraud ends up mattering a great deal. And they all matter if the Democrats use the method to pump up the popular vote, so that even if Trump somehow manages to win they can complain as they did in 2016 that he lost the popular vote and the Electoral College has got to go.
Mailing unrequested ballots to all voters is the most dangerous method of voting in terms of potential fraud, but some other states have applications for a ballot mailed to all registered voters, who then may apply for a ballot to be sent to them. The issue is not just how the applications are sent, but also how the ballot requests and ballot submissions are authenticated (or whether there’s an effort to authenticate them at all), and when.
I know that things can change. I know that the polls favoring Biden might be wrong. But my level of anxiety is very high. I wish I could write something that wasn’t such a downer, but honestly I can’t.
I was thinking the other evening about Thomas Sowell. How many lucid and brilliant books has he written over the years? A great many; a remarkable achievement. How many columns has he written? Likewise. And yet, although he has indeed influenced a lot of people – including me – in the end, did he just have his finger in the dike all that time? And are the waters about to rush in? There are forces much stronger than logic, and there always have been.
One thing I tell myself is that, even if this election goes the way I’m dreading, it doesn’t necessarily mean the country won’t or can’t wake up in a few years. I think the Democrats will fix things so that they entrench their own power (new states, court packing, and the like) and a reversal might be difficult or impossible. But perhaps the backlash will be so strong it will overcome whatever they do.
Another thing I believe is that, even if Trump is somehow able to pull this one out and win four more years, the forces allied against him are formidable and they will be angrier than ever. Whoever wins, I don’t see this settling down. Not at all.
I remember back in the fall of 2012 before the election, I went to my book group – which, except for me, consists of women from left to liberal who are predictable Democratic voters. I wondered what they’d say about Romney, who seemed to me to be the sort of person they wouldn’t be able to work up much of a head of steam against. Wrong, wrong, wrong. They had swallowed, and were bent on regurgitating, all the stupid memes they’d been fed. I recall in particular all the angry dissing about “binders of women,” and how it meant that Romney hated women and if elected would be harming them in some way or other.
It taught me just how very susceptible almost everyone I know is to propaganda. To see it get spread in real time that way was an education. Now, of course, the situation is far worse. To almost everyone I know, Trump is a sort of secular devil, and anything he says or does must be opposed with every fiber of a person’s being. And that is true not just of people who don’t follow politics, or who aren’t especially intelligent, but of people whose intellect and reasoning power I ordinarily respect.
And although I have never heard anyone say a single good thing about Joe Biden, he is truly irrelevant in their equation. He’s simply the un-Trump, and that will do.
Don’t underestimate your enemy, but don’t overestimate them either.
Consider the COVID hysteria they’re constantly stoking to try and beat Trump. It may very well wind up crippling Hollywood, one of the most powerful resources the Left has.
If Biden wins, it will be terrible for the country but it won’t stop me from trying to make my own life better.
Mike
I admit I am somewhat less sanguine about a Trump victory, given recent polls and the Trump debate. I’m not sure how much effect Trump’s Covid has.
A Biden-Harris victory would be quite serious.
I doubt that administration would be competent enough to make things better, but I suspect if they want it enough, and I’m pretty sure they do, they can pack the court, admit DC and Puerto Rico as states, and naturalize all the illegals they can, in order to fireproof the US from Republican power.
Very bad.
I think in a normal election (like in 2016) with normal means of Democrat voter fraud, i.e, counting votes in cities (where almost everyone votes Democrat) 3 or 4 times each, that Trump would win by a similar margin or larger than in 2016. Jill Stein’s recounts started to expose this usual Democrat vote fraud (in cities like Detroit and Philadelphia) before the Democrats promptly shut them down and went with the Russia angle. Remember the voting precincts in Detroit that were showing four times as many votes registered for Clinton as paper ballots collected for her, and the weak explanations the administrators gave that since their machines were old, they had to run the ballots through multiple times each? Even despite those tactics running up the totals in the cities, Trump should still win.
The mail-in voting will absolutely crush Trump though through an obvious three-prong strategy. It’s easy to see which ZIP codes voted heavily for Trump. Any ballot mailed in with one of those ZIP codes will be summarily destroyed. Then you have the matter of bags of ballots being sent to one address to be filled out all at once for Biden. And finally, if that hasn’t generated a win for Biden on election day in the swing states, the deadlines for counting mail-in ballots has been extended in all those states, allowing the Democrats to know exactly how far they are behind and give them plenty of time to manufacture (“harvest”) votes to overcome the deficit. California was the dry run for this procedure in 2018, and it worked to perfection, and Trump stupidly took no measures to stop it at a national level then and there.
With the frantic “free testing” being offered this month, they are seeking to legitimize this “third wave” of the virus through minimally positive and false positive test results to A) scare older Trump supporters into voting by mail, where their ballots could be more easily destroyed, or B) force states to shut down all in-person voting, which would disenfranchise Trump voters who planned on voting in person all along, but did not request a mail-in ballot in time.
There is virtually no way Biden can lose with mail-in voting. Even if the fraud is blatantly exposed with video, audio, and statistics, the media will not report it and call the claims “conspiracies”. Other than Trump himself, the Republicans won’t fight it.
If the Democrats wanted to, and they aren’t bold enough to do something like this yet, with mail-in voting as the law of the land, they could manufacture electoral wins in all 50 states if they wanted to this year. After this election, that is probably what they will do–that’s what they do in all dictatorships which have “free elections” after all.
Regarding polls, have you seen this from Michael Bertolone at American Thinker?
The link:
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/finally_an_accurate_poll.html
so to do the math:
Trump wins: 90% (Republican) + 27% Dem (100%-73%) + 56% Independent = 173/300
Biden wins: 10% (Repub,100%-90%) + 73% Dem + 44% Independent = 127/300
For what it’s worth. (sorry about the poor formating)
Also, I do not have a citation but in the last few days I read about the problems with polls showing a Biden double-digit lead. The point being that pollsters are 1) overcounting Dems v Republicans; 2) counting suburban Republicans which are trending Biden ; and 3) undercounting (or not counting) rural Democrats who are trending Trump. If true, they are not just overcounting Dems by party affiliation, but also by using Dem leaning Republicans as part of their sample.
Did anyone else read this? Can you provide a source? (I thought it was over at Ace of Spades, but I could not find it.).
I live in New Mexico now.
Recently a watchdog group based in Texas won a court judgment that prevents New Mexico from automatically mailing ballots to every (supposedly) registered voter.
Meanwhile, over the last couple of months I have received no fewer than four mailings from a third-party (Democrat-backed) organization. The mailings included a form for obtaining an absentee ballot. That organization has also sent, to this address, three instances of the same mailing to a man who lives in Sweden and is a relative of our house’s previous (deceased) owner. At least the late owner has not (yet) been invited to apply for an absentee ballot.
By the way, I checked up on my voter registration in California (I moved away last year) and learned that my status is “inactive.” So at least no one is mailing me a ballot at my old address.
“It taught me just how very susceptible almost everyone I know is to propaganda. To see it get spread in real time that way was an education. Now, of course, the situation is far worse. To almost everyone I know, Trump is a sort of secular devil, and anything he says or does must be opposed with every fiber of a person’s being. And that is true not just of people who don’t follow politics, or who aren’t especially intelligent, but of people whose intellect and reasoning power I ordinarily respect.“
A leftist friend of mine, fulminating against Trump, declared vehemently that he knows everything of significance that there is to know about Trump. I asked him whether Trump said the Neo-Nazis in Charlottesville included some very fine people. “You know he did” was the answer. This is one of the smarter people I know, and he spends a lot of time being “informed” about Trump.
@T: Your math only works if there are equal numbers of R, D, and I. That’s what’s not known. To some extent people ID as R/D/I depending on who they plan to vote for.
Mac
Did you introduce him to what Trump actually said? And if so, what was his reaction?
I bravely predicted a Trump win in 2016, but now I’m not so brave. I’ve said a 40 state Trump win but the mail-in voting and the vote stealing has me scared to death.
Take MN for an example. I can see rural MN going strong for Trump, but the suburbs (I’m thinking of my ex-girlfriend’s daughter and horrible husband) will vote for Biden and Omar has a giant vote stealing operation that she has already gotten away with.
The states I’m worried about are TX (Houston), PA (Philly), WI (Milwaukee), NC (Dem governor), MN and MI (Detroit).
St. Ignatius Loyola, S.J. wrote, “Work as if everything depended upon you but pray if everything depended upon God.”
No one can deny that Trump is the hardest working man in politics. I’m hoping the power of prayer and Divine Intervention saves the United States. I really can’t imagine Biden winning. We may well lose America. Trump is the Indispensable Man. I’m going to Mass and praying for POTUS to win. Please pray.
Here’s my call: Trump wins 39 states even with massive Dem cheating. Working class Whites and a surprising number of Blacks and Hispanics will make the difference.
“Here’s my call: Trump wins 39 states even with massive Dem cheating. Working class Whites and a surprising number of Blacks and Hispanics will make the difference.” [Cornhead @ 3:51]
Don Surber is predicting 37 states over at his site (donsurber.blogspot.com). Aside of all of the MSM gaslighting, I am expecting a definitive electoral college win and hoping for a small plurality in the popular vote. When people are erecting large Hollywood-like Trump signs in L.A., it seems that the momentum is in Trump;s favor. Whether or not this translates into his second term, we will just have to wait and see . . . and vote.
FWIW, I have seen a massive physical presence of Trump signage – signs at intersections, on lawns and cars, flags carried on trucks – in my area and virtually a complete absence of Biden signs. This area is still red but I don’t recall anything like it in 2016.
“admit DC and Puerto Rico as states, and naturalize all the illegals they can, in order to fireproof the US from Republican power.”
Puerto Ricans and illegal immigrants are not genetically required to vote for Democrats.
Mike
Puerto Ricans and illegal immigrants are not genetically required to vote for Democrats.
MBunge: It’s worse than you think! No one is genetically required to vote for Democrats.
The Trump hatred is strong. This afternoon a friend posted about Florida opening up all stadiums to full. His leftist friends freaked out, of course blaming Trump. I posted the data from FL showing how well the state is doing. I was attacked as a “bootlicking, Orange man worshipper, who is not an American , and certainly not human.”
Isn’t the first step in any armed conflict to dehumanize your enemy. They are already there.
Biden and poor, poor pitiful Harris can only pass the 270 threshold by massive fraud. I doubt they will prevail, but they will taint the integrity of the election. Load or buy more ammo. These people want you dead. They hate you more than they hate Trump.
‘And that is true not just of people who don’t follow politics, or who aren’t especially intelligent, but of people whose intellect and reasoning power I ordinarily respect.‘
I find that the people whose intellect I respect are the ‘humph’ Trump haters and that the ordinary people like him. I love my sister. She is smart and capable and always has voted Republican, but this election she will vote Biden. Trump is ‘icky’. However, people that are below her income level are significantly more numerous and these people vote.
For example; six mayors in northern Minnesota are supporting Trump in a region that in 2016 voted for HRC. With the exception of the Twin Cities, was the only Democrat region in the State. The people in Northern Minnesota are working class, active in politics, and they love the USA. They all vote. The protesters? They are not reliable. They hate themselves, they hate the US, and they hate government.
I really thought HRC was going to win. We will see.
States Biden wins: WA, OR, CA, IL, VT, NY, MA, RI, DE, MD and CT. That’s 11.
I live in Orange County, New York – that’s about 1-1/2 hours from NYC.
I see nothing but Trump yard signs within a 10 mile radius of my home. I’ve yet to see a Biden sign.
Here I am in deep blue New York state – and not a Biden sign in sight.
The pollsters are all using techniques which they KNOW tilt their results toward Biden. This isn’t debatable. Check out any discussion by professional polling firms where they break it all down. The question for us to consider is why these liberal polling outfits are choosing to manipulate their results. In essence to publish “lies”.
My take — we know that most liberal news outlets work very closely with the Democrats. They have been told or can easily see for themselves that the Democrats are ramping up the most extensive and outrageous election fraud in US history.
Every big Biden poll lead now makes it easier for the public to believe when the election fraud has done its worst that he won legitimately. It’s all about optics and narrative.
physicsguy — there will be violence. I don’t see how it can be avoided. I think that is Soros’ goal. Perhaps Buffett’s too.
Antifa deliberately pushes and bullies in hopes of getting a response. They are well-organized and they have a serious plan. They want violence. They are likely to get what they want.
It doesn’t really take MASSIVE butter fraud to turn the tide. Just well placed voter fraud.
Indiana went for Obama in 2008 and it was about 1% of the vote that made the difference. Marion and Lake Counties (heavily blue) had over 100% of eligible people registered to vote. That difference (in number of people registered and number of people eligible) was less than half of the number by which Obama had beat Cain. (The Libertarian may have also home things up.)
Just to put it out there before hand, there shouldn’t be some huge pile on Trump if he loses. He hasn’t had a perfect administration or run a perfect campaign but I’m not sure ANYONE can win when the mainstream media absolutely refuses to report anything positive about you or anything negative about your opponent.
That’s what Trump is facing and it should be kept in mind.
Mike
Neo, just consider that the polls are yet another propaganda tool for the dems. Your fear about the effectiveness of propaganda is well founded. There is an all out effort to steal this election, and one of the tools is polls that are totally unreal i.e. fake, thus propaganda. They are meant to depress our vote while encouraging the dems to vote.
T asked if anyone saw the split in one of the polls which ahs Biden up 14. I think it was WSJ/NBC, which had a +9 democrat split when you looked for it. Its also true that national polls are useless in predicting electoral college results, as are polls of “registered voters” or “adults”.
The question will be whether there are enough trump haters to counter the lazy dems who aren’t inspired by Biden and don’t pay enough attention to politics to hate Trump, so they’ll stay at home.
In a rational country, this would be a walkaway by Trump, but much of our electorate is irrational, like Mac’s liberal, smart friend. One of the most frustrating lessons I’ve learned is not to assume smart people will accept facts and change their opinion. If the facts don’t fit their narrative (religion, really, like man made warming and orange man bad) NOTHING will change their position. And they are massively IGNORANT, no matter what credentials they have, because they drink only the cool-aid that feeds their narrative.
For those feeling dismayed, remember how you felt in 2016 immediately after the Billy Bush tape was leaked, and GOP leaders were racing to jump overboard, even calling for Trump to stand down? And he was facing the most potent death star political machine (the Clintons) maybe ever, with the media openly trying everything to stop him, and the polls at least as bad as now? Moderators pooping on him left and right?
Remembering that tempers my fear. But the breath-taking lying done by Biden, Harris, the media, hollywood, the polls, is very scary, I admit. Biden and Harris blatantly lie about their previous statements (fracking, green new deal, packing the courts, taxes, riots) and the media backs them.
I’m hoping the massive, spontaneous Trump demonstrations around the country are indicative of how voter turnout will play.
I do want this to be OVER!
For what it’s worth — this and a subway token gets you a ride on the subway — in every presidential election I remember since, ohh, let’s peg it at 1980 . . .
. . . I seem to remember the Republican gaining on the Democrat in the last week or two of the campaign [exceptions: 1984 and 2004, in which the Republican was safely ahead but gained momentum in the last week or two].
Why? I think we know why. As we near the finish line, the pollsters get their acts together, stop oversampling Democrats (for whatever reason they actually start oversampling Democrats), and endeavor instead to show that *their* polling results came closest to the official count.
I have no research to fall back on here. It’s just my recollections paired with my thinking there’s a pattern — along with my speculation as to why the pattern.
Am I right or am I right? [smile]
Is it too late to trade Donald Trump for Mike Pence? Id feel we’d be doing much better if we did.
@MBunge:I’m not sure ANYONE can win when the mainstream media absolutely refuses to report anything positive about you or anything negative about your opponent.
That’s what Trump is facing and it should be kept in mind.
If this is the case we’re no longer a republic or a democracy, we’re something else. Chomsky had something else in mind when he wrote “Manufacturing Consent” but the label would fit. We’d have the mechanics of voting and the illusion that the elections were real but it would just be a civic ritual with no effect on our lives.
If that is true, I think I need to live (for now) as though it is not, because it’s like saying you don’t have free will. Assuming this is not yet for me a useful guide for action.
If it becomes unmistakably true, of course, I will need to figure out how to guide my actions with this knowledge, but that action will be unlikely to involve voting.
“Am I right or am I right?“
You’re not wrong. Clinton beat Dole by 8.5% in 1996, which seems like a lot until you realize the polls regularly showed Clinton 15+ points ahead. That created a public perception that Dole had zero chance to win and that dramatically shaped media coverage of the campaign.
Mike
If they can commit just enough fraud in the states that marginally went for Trump on 2016, they’ll win: The states with the narrowest margins for Trump were Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida. Michigan’s margin in 2016 was a matter of about 11,000 votes.
I don’t see any of the states who went for Hilary in 2016 flipping for Trump in 2020, except possibly New Hampshire, with four big electoral votes.
If they flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to blue, Trump can’t win.
And I can see North Carolina and Arizona flipping blue, because they have a had a lot of NY and CA escapees move in, but who still have their idiotic voting tendencies. (They went to Trump by narrow margins in 2016.)
It will be a nail biter. And all they have to do is concentrate on fabricating a total 78,000 votes in three states.
Neo: yes, with a link to the transcript at the LA Times, so it couldn’t be dismissed as right-wing propaganda. He didn’t respond (this was on Facebook).
If you are optimistic then a quick look at polls in Portland for the mayor’s race will bring you quickly back to reality as to what is possible. https://nationalfile.com/portland-mayor-losing-to-pro-antifa-communist-challenger/
This isn’t business as usual.
“Just to put it out there before hand, there shouldn’t be some huge pile on Trump if he loses.”
Yes, of course.
The man works like a dog. Total respect for effort. Not just dumb effort, either. A lot of thought and cleverness.
In fact, IF Trump loses, and WHEN the Biden/Harris Admin screws things up royally (you know they will), can’t Trump run again in 2024? 🙂 🙂
“This isn’t business as usual.“
Actually, that is how it is supposed to work. Vote for fools and stupid policies, suffer from the results. It took a long time for conservatives to get fed up with a GOP that was constantly selling them out. There’s a lot of moderate and even liberal Democrats who really need their noses rubbed in the garbage and nonsense their party has promoted.
Mike
My rural Central New York county went heavily for Trump in 2016. There were signs for Trump back then and signs for various Democratic candidates, but essentially no signs for Hillary anywhere. I still thought she’d win — and so I don’t trust myself to make predictions anymore. But this time around, I’m worried. The yards everywhere are packed with Biden/Harris signs, along with signs for other Dem candidates. The occasional Trump flag is a rare exception. Even out in the country, I’m seeing far more Biden signs than Trump. Could all those voters have changed their minds? Or are they just putting out more signs?
Yes, let’s get all the anxiety out of the way now.
And let’s finish strong!
Take a deep breath. Put a smile on our faces.
Square our shoulders. Trust in our judgment, trust in the Divine. You shouldn’t feel like there was anything you need to apologize for.
Yes, it’s a “big game” but we’re not rookies.
Yes?
Portland has been A B Normal for more than 40 years if compared with the rest of the country.
I haven’t dealt with the Charlottesville Hoax for a long time.
Is the Scott Adams article still considered a good tool to use?
https://www.scottadamssays.com/2019/04/30/the-fine-people-hoax-funnel/
I haven’t been on this blog much in the last few years, just an occasional peek, although I visited quite often years ago. The dread you speak of sounds so much like what I hear from my friends on the left. It struck me reading this how easy it would be to switch a “Trump” for a “Biden” or a “republican” for a “democrat” in some of these sentences and it would sound so much like what I hear from people stressed out about a Trump win. Strange. Are we at the point where we get four years of anxiety if our candidate doesn’t win?
Kungfool:
Perhaps you didn’t notice this paragraph of my post:
In other words – I think a lot of us will have “four years of anxiety” (or more) no matter who wins. The subject matter of the anxiety and perhaps the degree will be different, although some of what I’m anxious about will occur, I believe, no matter who wins.
I don’t know if that’s true of the left’s anxiety. Perhaps it will dissipate if Biden wins, or perhaps not.
What’s more, I don’t recall being anxious in previous years when my candidate lost. And my candidate often lost. However, this anxiety about elections began in earnest for me in 2004, and it has continued ever since. However, it is greater this year than ever. But it’s not just about my candidate winning. It’s about what I see happening in America.
By the way, one more thing – in 2016 I didn’t have a candidate. I was very anxious though, about both of them.
Kungfool:
What’s more, the things the Democrats are proposing are far more radical in terms of basic change in our government, compared to anything the right is proposing. The Green New Deal. Packing the Court. So the right has more reason to be very anxious. Whereas the left’s anxiety is mainly because a win on the right would slow them down or stop them from making these sweeping changes.
Kungfool:
Four years of the “resistance,” four months of riots, some assassinations, and talk of coups and packing the supreme court may cause some anxiety. Talk (by Twitter ex-CEO) by of putting people up against the wall or execution of those who publish wrong thought (Michael Anton) may also lead to anxiety. Funny, but the Proud Boys haven’t been trying to burn down Federal and municipal courthouses, and yet they are the threat. And then there seem to be Federal agencies (FBI, CIA) hip deep in the “resistance” but not to worry? Don’t worry about the media or Big Tech/Big Data.
I see Biden ads on FB and all the comments, thousands, are pro-Trump!
Saw one today that said he would restore respect for the troops.
Unending comments from vets deriding Biden.
It was wonderful.
Leftists love masking the public.
The big mask?
The polls that put Biden ahead are to mask the mail vote fraud.
Mrs Whatsit:
That is rather strange. Hard to believe large numbers of Trump voters have deserted him.
I do think, however, that putting up a sign for Trump has become way more dangerous in the last four years. At least, it feels more dangerous. The hatred on the left has intensified greatly. In 2016, the left considered Trump a sort of joke and supporters rather loony, but since the left knew that Hillary would win, they could afford to be more tolerant. That has changed.
LeClerc
I live in Orange County, New York…I see nothing but Trump yard signs within a 10 mile radius of my home. I’ve yet to see a Biden sign
One should not equate the number of Trump yard signs with what will happen in a national election. Especially in small counties with small populations compared to the cities. Look at the facts.
Orange County NY has a population of 384 thousand people. While NYC has a population of 18 million [!] and fewer yard signs because there are fewer yards. So conceivable ever single person in Orange County NY could vote for Trump and it would not matter. Biden would still win NY.
I’ve heard others tout about yard signs as a barometer of the election and it’s not. It’s simply a barometer of yard signs in rural areas – which tend to have greater area but much less population density.
JimNorCal:
If they haven’t found a way to put him in jail in the meantime. I think they will try, and they might succeed.
But if he’s a free man and still relatively healthy in 2024, he would only be approximately the same age Biden is now, and he could run.
The dread you speak of sounds so much like what I hear from my friends on the left.
Kungfool: Unfortunately, just because things might appear equivalent doesn’t make them equivalent.
As is often the case, one must assess a position on its merits rather than lazily dismiss it because it seems to fit some convenient category.
I started on the left and now I’m on the right. Looking back the right’s concerns seem to me to be better grounded that what we hear from the left.
For instance, now the left goes on and on about Trump as Hitler or dictator. How many people have lost their jobs, been put in camps or murdered, how many newspapers have closed because of Trump?
None.
Meanwhile, Republicans are concerned that Democrats might pack the Supreme Court if they win this election and that’s the sad truth.
“Just a Friendly Reminder That The Polls Now Are Exactly Where They Were in 2016”
https://www.redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/10/08/just-a-friendly-reminder-that-the-polls-now-are-exactly-where-they-were-in-2016/
What an amazing coincidence…
Montage figures out the concept of rural. Now if he could figure out the concept of one-party states and the adverse consequences of that governance. Never mind.
Andy:
Look again. That’s only because the opposition to the Antifa person is split. The opposition needs to consolidate behind someone.
Wheeler is very unpopular at this point. Iannorane gets 41% to his 30%. That leaves another 29%. So the non-Iannorane vote totals 59%.
Portland is a crazy place, but I don’t think it’s quite that crazy. Yet.
The opposition better get its act together, fast.
I am not worried about Trump losing an honest vote. He’s got far far more enthusiastic supporters (TRUMP in LA?), the turnout at his speeches is vastly greater, and, as others have noted, there are a hell of a lot more Trump signs in places you would expect at least a smattering of Biden signs.
I expect a lot more concern over efforts to stuff the boxes with “last minute updates” on state-level counts thanks to mail-in ballots.
It just means that Trump supporters cannot get complacent, and have to get out and vote for him. Make it impossible for them to invent the number of votes they need in order to cheat.
After all, if you get a turnout of 125% of registered voters in an area, there will be plenty of screams of “TROUT!!”, and they’ll stick.
What is going to happen, if Trump wins, is that the DEMS — particularly the merdia, will scream “Cheater!!” because of their lying poll numbers, and then you’ll see lots more rioting just like this summer.
Montage: So do you just drop in here to see if you can stir things up?
Seems that way. You don’t hang around for discussion if your initial comment gets beat down … as it usually is.
I have not put up my Trump signs, nor stickers on my bumpers. The Leftists would tear up my lawn in driving over the sign, and key my car.
I am greatly afraid the evil side has won the century-long struggle, in which the constitution-respecters did not fight back hard enough or long enough. Barry Goldwater was right about extremism in defense of liberty not being a bad thing.
I assure you that if Dems take the presidency and the Senate, this country is done. It will be a new Venezuela if Biden aka Chavez wins. The US will not be resurrected because we have surrendered all keys to the kingdom.
In a loss,Trump will be prosecuted, imprisoned. He did not need the job he took in 2017, he wanted to do the right things. The Dems will ruin him financially, brutally, totally.
stan:
I’ve thought for a long time that that’s the case. The polls must show Biden ahead for several reasons. One is that if fraud is planned to help him win, the polls will make everyone believe the results are on the up and up. But the other is that, if Biden were to lose, the polls would convince everyone on the left that Trump cheated and is an illegitimate president.
I seem to remember the Republican gaining on the Democrat in the last week or two of the campaign [exceptions: 1984 and 2004, in which the Republican was safely ahead but gained momentum in the last week or two
M J R: Likewise.
As a Democrat I was unpleasantly surprised when Reagan beat Carter in 1980, because the polls had been solid for Carter up until they went a bit soft in the final week. I couldn’t figure it out.
Andy — Following up to Neo…
I think the opposition to Wheeler in Portland has more to do with “anyone by Wheeler.” Unfortunately, that means nuttier nut job. Portland has a jungle primary and the top two vote getters run in the November election. The choice is Wheeler or Nuttier. I’d imagine a sane person could run a successful write in campaign and win in Portland.
Cicero:
As I wrote at 7:14 in this thread, I fear that if Trump loses they will try to charge him with some criminal charge and imprison him. Or at the very least, bankrupt him with some other sort of suit.
So I agree with you on that.
Neo, I’m hoping that the yard sign thing is just a sign of Democratic Trump fear and loathing. Last time I was not by any means the only voter figuring that Hillary would win (and of course, she did win in NY, as Biden presumably will this time). So maybe many Dems were complacent and thought they didn’t need to bother with signs. This time, those Dems not only know that Trump actually won last time but they know that lots of their neighbors voted for him and (in their view) need to have their minds changed.
And it’s certainly true that advertising the intent to vote for Trump is a very risky thing to do, and more risky this time than in 2016. So perhaps many of those signless houses (and they are in the vast majority) are not planning to vote for Biden. I’m hoping so.
I saw the first Trump bumper sticker I’ve ever seen on a vehicle the other day (a very nice new and expensive-looking SUV, though I didn’t note the model/make.) It was a bit of a shock! I hope that nice new car does not get keyed. Come to think of it, I haven’t seen many political bumper stickers for any candidate lately. Maybe they are becoming a thing of the past?
“To almost everyone I know, Trump is a sort of secular devil, and anything he says or does must be opposed with every fiber of a person’s being.” neo
Ah the irony, in unjustly demonizing Trump, they have embraced the demon within.
Unjustly because even the slightest examination of the facts reveals the lies.
Mrs Whatsit:
Oddly enough, I see just about zero signs where I live. I saw many more in 2016 of both types. I’m not sure what’s going on this time with that.
Cicero, there is a certain amusement in your note:
since, per your namesake and his contemporaries, that was the very kind of thing that contributed to the end of the Roman Republic, on which ours has been in some considerable measure modelled. (Did the Romans invent lawfare, or was it the Greeks or even the Assyrians?) Thus the circle closes – or, I suppose, in a more ultimate sense, is broken at last with a new Caesar crossing some Rubicon in Virginia somewhere.
If Trump is charged or arrested while the perps of the coup attempt walk free, there will be a revolution. I’m deadly serious. There is simply no way in hell that conservatives and Trump lovers (some overlap) will tolerate that kind of blatant injustice. And I really believe that the majority of police and military would stand with those demanding justice. Sounds scary. Seems impossible in America. But here we are. Cities are burning over claims that are clearly brain-dead stupid slanders. The Deep State has been caught trying a coup in the worst scandal in history and no one is going to be punished. That alone has millions boiling in rage. We’re just a lit match away. And the next few weeks are going to add lots and lots of fuel.
I realize that Democrats are mentally defective and morally retarded, but surely some adult in their party can understand that a persecution and prosecution of Trump would bring the country to its knees.
{and I stand by the mentally defective/morally retarded assessment. The evidence is OVERWHELMING in support of it.}
Phillip Sells:
Well there are five bridges that cross the Potomac River from Virginia into Washington DC that are near the Pentagon so the problem for the aspiring caudillo is choosing the bridge. Now General Stanley McChrystal has been working with the Transition Integrity Project recently and General James Mattis has also been problematic so will it be a retired ring-monster or an active duty savior of democracy? Where is General Wesley Clark when the country is in peril? 😉
huxley
Montage: So do you just drop in here to see if you can stir things up?
I tend to comment and then not check responses because I’ve made my point. No one here agrees with it anyway but maybe every now and then someone silently agrees…
That said, I was trying to put in my two cents about ‘election prognostications’ and chose an obvious one; Political yard signs. They are about as indicative as to who will win as me going on facebook and seeing all my liberal friends promoting Biden. I would not use that as a barometer. I’m very well aware I live in a political bubble and therefore don’t consider it is a reflection of all of America. I don’t trust the polls much either.
Om
I grew up in a rural flyover state that was conservative.
Also one party states exist all over the country. Are they a problem? Or are you just critical of the ones that are Democratic? If you look at the map the number of one party states is about equal. I count 14 are all Republican and 12 are all Democratic. The other 24 are a mix of both.
” Whoever wins, I don’t see this settling down. Not at all.”
I expect violence after the election regardless of the outcome. If Trump wins, there will be rioting against Trump. If Trump loses, there will be rioting in celebration of the Left’s victory.
You can toss into the garbage any national poll that shows either candidate ahead by more than 7 points. The range of possible vote percentages is +7 for the Ds and + 2 for the Republicans in the total vote. The +7 cap for the Dems is Obama’s margin in 2008 during a financial crisis that the Republicans politically owned (don’t quibble with the causes- the electorate blamed Bush full stop). The +2 cap for the Republicans is just the best case scenario I had thought in January that Trump was going to win by. In reality, I think the real range is +4 for the Dems and + 1 for the Republicans.
If Biden really were leading by double digits nationally, he would be leading in Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by double digits, too. That the swing state polls, also biased in my opinion, don’t confirm such a double digit Biden lead, and indeed show better for Trump than they did in 2016, I think Trump has a 50/50 shot to win in the worst case scenario.
In any case, here is what I will be watching on election night- Trump’s margin in Kentucky and Indiana, followed by the margins in Virginia. If Trump performs better in those three states than he did in 2016, then he is likely to win. If he performs worse, then he is likely to lose. I will be able to tell you which it is by about 9 p.m. on election night. The main thing Trump has going for him that wasn’t the case in 2016 is that the right-leaning 3rd party candidates regularly took 4-5% of the vote in 2016, and that total is all but certain to shrink back to its normal less than 1%. That is about 2-3% of extra national vote for Trump over 2016.
Montage:
Consider that the readers of this blog know what “rural” means, you don’t have to liberal-splain it. Yes California, the land of ballot harvesting, is a model of representative governance. Funny but is seems that red states sometimes go purple but once the California model is implemented or vote by mail is instituted good luck opposing the progressive tyranny. Election fraud is a feature not a bug in your system.
Montage,
“one party states exist all over the country. Are they a problem? Or are you just critical of the ones that are Democratic?”
Are you a fool or a knave?
There is zero evidence that republicans have any desire whatsoever to create a one party state. Whereas, the democrats are now upfront about intending to do so and have long been doing all they can to establish the preconditions for one.
Neo, I suspect, but cannot prove scientifically, that the absence of signs is a pro-Trump indicator. Biden supporters do not fear violence or vandalism if they parade their choice. Trump supporters–well.
I support Trump with as much fervor as I can muster. Would I post a sign or make any other overt indication, outside of my vote by mail ballot? No. Maybe back in the day when I was not yet 70, or 80, and lived in a state where citizens could defend themselves or their property. In fact in those days. I used to pass out GOP literature at the polls,, and gently chide the Democrats who went to the other volunteer. Like a millienum ago.
In my town, I see the usual catalog of signs for local elections. Not a single one for a national candidate. The Brown Shirts, and their suburban finger pointing auxiliaries, have people spooked on issues that count. My hope is that people will do their talking on the ballot.
Just listened to Victor Davis Hanson. I so wish that Trump would bring him on board as his spokesman. “CNN you have a question? My man VDH will take that one. Listen carefully, there will be a quiz.”. “Pelosi you want my answer to your latest foolishness, call VDH and he will try to fit you into his schedule.”
Off topic. I had a dream, or a fantasy, late last night. Lots of that goes on late in the night for Octogenarians; hard to tell them apart sometimes. Anyway. Trump addressed the nation thusly: “The COVID episode has focused my attention in a number of ways. One is honest self reflection. I realize that I have been an Ass. I never intentionally hurt anyone who I didn’t think deserved the rough side of my tongue; but, I know that I have gratuitously insulted people who did not deserve it. I sincerely apologize. From here on I will try, repeat try, my best to be a nicer human. I will work just as hard for what I believe is best for the country; but, without the insulting language. To assist me, Melania and Ivanka have bought new, pointed toed shoes with metal inserts, and will use them on my ankles when I regress. Wish me luck.”
On signage:
I live in Oak Ridge, TN. In 2016, I kept a running count of the numbers of bumper stickers and yard signs I saw for Clinton and Trump in Anderson County. Clinton won that yard sign/bumper sticker count by over 50 to 1- it wasn’t even close- in fact I saw only 1 Trump yard sign the entire campaign and only a handful of bumper stickers, and only near the end in both cases. Trump won Anderson County 2 to 1 in the vote, though. I haven’t counted this year, but it is similar- I haven’t seen any Trump yard signs at all, but fewer Biden signs than I saw Clinton signs in 2016. My take is enthusiasm is actually lower for the Dems this cycle than last, not higher.
My nice town of about 17,000 plus NW of San Antonio has Trump signs all over the place, on buildings downtown and on fences and in yards. Every Saturday there is a Trump Train of trucks and cars moving around for several hours and this weekend we have the annual ‘Hot Rod’ show that brings in hundreds of cars and I expect to see a lot of Trump flags and banners, Yeah Texas.
We also have the face mask thing in place for businesses however it seems to be optional for customers and only used by staff when others when customers are present and in some smaller businesses not at all. No one seems to be worried about little arrows or distances and traffic is as heavy as it was a year ago most everywhere. I am unsure of this whole election because I live in a bubble of conservatives and we will find out in about a month how this will all play out, I am hoping that Trump knocks it out of the ballpark but I am also afraid that there will be some crazy mixed up stuff like W. Bush had in 2000 when I was deer hunting out of Crawford Texas and we waited up for the decision to go into town and celebrate and . . . that was delayed.
“Make it impossible for them to invent the number of votes they need in order to cheat.
After all, if you get a turnout of 125% of registered voters in an area, there will be plenty of screams of “TROUT!!”, and they’ll stick.” OBloodyHell
Bingo. When, as polling has consistently shown, a much higher % of blacks and hispanics vote for Trump and the white vote is at least as high as 2016
… but the popular vote total for Trump is less in swing states, we’ll know massive fraud has occured.
Trump can then direct AG Barr to investigate and charge any official State resistance with obstruction of justice. When increased rioting results, Trump can invoke the Insurrection Act.
If Pelosi tries to impeach, she then opens herself to charges of interference in an investigation, obstruction of justice and Insurrection.
It’s time to take off the kid gloves and play real hardball.
Man how sweet would it be to see US Marshals enter the House and march her out in handcuffs?
Would this create a Constitutional crisis? Of course but to do less is now, effectively to agree that the Constitution is after all, a suicide pact.
Tom Fitton/Judicial Watch today filed a suit against Colorado to force the cleaning up of the voter rolls. So far, they have refused to do this although it required by law.
JW has sued other states as well, and actually forced them to follow the law.
I do think that if the Democrats win this election, the 1st and 2nd Amendments will become, functionally, dead letters.
I was hoping that my kids, and my grandkids when I have them, would live in a better kind of society than that.
Even if Trump happens to lose, there could be some consolation prizes in the offing – if we get some useful Congressional seats or something, for example.
R.C.,
If the 1st and 2nd amendment’s become dead letters, then the American people will be faced with whether they value liberty enough to fight for it and, if necessary die for it.
Furthermore, if they chose to accept the revocation of liberty’s essential guarantees, then they don’t deserve the liberty that their ancestors fought and died for… there are worse things than a death sacrificed for freedom and a living death is one of them.
I don’t think anyone can look good in a pandemic. Trump has been carrying a three hundred pound weight since March.
If Biden wins this election, many low information voters who cast their ballots for him are going to be surprised and disappointed at his many inabilities. Trump has sucked in so much oxygen that there has been no rational analysis of Biden and his many, many deficiencies.
Harris showed the level of her abilities when she dropped out of the Dem race six weeks before the Iowa caucuses. She wasn’t missed. She is limited and unable.
If Trump loses, the GOP can pick up the pieces, starting in 2022. They did in 2010 and added strength in 2014 and 2016. They let the 2018 elections get away from them in the House, but they picked up three Senate seats.
The GOP needs to talk sense to the American people. They have excellent candidates coming up. The Democrats don’t. Trump’s personality has overwhelmed his generally excellent policies. There is plenty to be gained in the reaction to a Biden presidency. He cannot hide in the White House.
Philip Sells,
That’s whistling past the graveyard. The Left has no intention whatsoever of ever losing another election and will do whatever it takes to ensure that outcome.
It seems to me that it would be foolish for a professional polling organization to publish polling that later turns out to be totally wrong. This is their bread and butter, after all, and you can’t be way off the mark many times before no one buys your product any longer.
Now there is some possibility they will skew results in the hope that vote fraud will subsequently bring the final result closer to what they had predicted. But still, I would think they are damaging their reputation if their polling later turns out to be far off the mark.
So although I sure hope the polls are wrong, I don’t think they can be far wrong.
But I sure hope I’m very wrong.
F:
I think what most people are saying is that the polls tend to narrow down right before the election, and that way the pollsters are not far off, because it’s only the ones right before the election that they stake their reputation on. And in fact, those are the only polls where you can say if they were right or wrong, because they’re the only ones validated or not validated when people vote.
But there’s also the difficulty of polling itself, especially with low response rates. Pollsters make honest mistakes and they don’t always know they’re doing it. If there really is a “shy Trump” voter, then it would misled pollsters who were trying to get it right.
“It seems to me that it would be foolish for a professional polling organization to publish polling that later turns out to be totally wrong.”
It seems to me that it would be foolish for newspapers (and TV news, etc) to publish stories so one-sided and false that half their potential customers stop buying the product.
It seems to me that it would be foolish for universities to spend so many resources indoctrinating their students that the grads aren’t able to get jobs after graduation because they haven’t learned anything worthwhile.
It seems to me that it would be foolish for Target to loudly proclaim that men are welcome to use the ladies rest room if they consider themselves to be female in support of transgender sensibilities.
It seems to me that it would be foolish for Gillette to … for the NBA/NFL/MLB to … for Nike shoes to …
Heck even AirBnB has become a woke-scold who lectures their property owners on racism. Remember Starbucks teaching baristas how to blame customers for racism? And Yelp is looking into how to allow reviews to criticize businesses for acts of racism claimed by customers. This list is endless.
Neo, your seeing just about zero signs where you live leads me to guess, that folks know how dangerous it is to express any views contrary to the Party Line.
We the people have noticed the poor quality of news coverage by the MSM.
We wondered if, per chance, there is a way to hold them accountable.
Journalism standards bid them to be fair, neutral, and objective.
What to do when those standards are brazenly flouted?
We’ve cast about, looking high, low, and all around.
Then we saw an approaching calendar date.
Less that a month away: ‘Election Day’!
We the people are not powerless!
As surely as the MSM tells lies,
So shall we vote them down.
The power of our marks =
Righteous Vengeance.
Yes, every time I hear or read that we’d be easily winning against Biden/Harris if only we had a normal candidate, I remember what they did to Romney. It isn’t really Trump – its them.
I’d be interested in hearing more from Neo, and in greater descriptive depth, about her impressive, if abortive, attempts to have a rational and calm conversation with her progressive friends.
Neo,
Was the remark about the car roaring off with squealing tires, jocular hyperbole?
Do your middle-aged female friends, educated and successful as they apparently are, have any interest in or committment to, the principles of constifutional government, if it has the potential for limiting the services which they may demand of , or compel from , another?
That is: Do you believe that they have a principled interest in liberty for all, that runs deeper than their desire for others to attend to their personal comfort?
And finally, what do you think their general attitude, if they can be said to have one, toward men is?
@neo
Hopefully you have a post about this in the works:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/warren-buffett-black-lives-matter
^^^ Credit where Credit is due.
“Another thing I believe is that, even if Trump is somehow able to pull this one out and win four more years, the forces allied against him are formidable and they will be angrier than ever. Whoever wins, I don’t see this settling down.”
Just imagine how the Trump voters will react, especially if it’s a strong win: Envisioning another dose of this crap. They’ve been politely repressed for 4 years after a righteous win and all it got them was an antagonistic never-ending river of contrived bullsh*t trying to reverse it instead of an attempt at across-the-aisle governing. Will they be as patient this time when it starts cranking up again? I’m thinking, No – the kind of No where you hold your hand up, palm out – the hand of Fatima. That kind of No.
I guess we’ll see. Early voting starts here next week.
I tend to comment and then not check responses because I’ve made my point. No one here agrees with it anyway but maybe every now and then someone silently agrees…
Montage: So, basically, as I asked earlier:
So do you just drop in here to see if you can stir things up?
I’ll count that as a “yes.”
@ stan: “If Trump is charged or arrested while the perps of the coup attempt walk free, there will be a revolution. . . . And I really believe that the majority of police and military would stand with those demanding justice.”
No. And the police and military are human beings with livelihoods and families. They will dance to the tune called by those who organized the coup. Sad to say. That is just one reason why this election represents an existential threat.
DNW:
First of all, this person is not my good friend. But she’s a friend nevertheless, although I don’t see her often.
She is the most leftist of my friends, however – and yes, the squealing tires were not hyperbole. She is very emotional. Happily married, though, with a close and large family.
So I can’t generalize about my friends. They’re all different. Most are married, and although sometimes there’s the scathing comment about men in general, male-bashing is not their thing (unless the man is Trump). I believe that some are interested in liberty and some are not. Hard to say the exact numbers, though.
Most of them do not get deeply into politics, but the COVID thing has activated the protectiveness in them and has brought out some Karen-ish qualities of which I was previously unaware. A few are more quiet and I’m not really sure how they feel.
And I think although they would say they support the Constitution, if you were to quiz them on it they don’t know very much about it.
Lily:
“Yes, every time I hear or read that we’d be easily winning against Biden/Harris if only we had a normal candidate, I remember what they did to Romney. It isn’t really Trump – its them.”.
How come if people say that would like to see a less trumpian Republican candidate, ever Trumpers immediately think we’re looking for another Romney?
I dont know about “normal candidate”, but watching the Pence/Harris debate what I really wish we had was a guy who could articulate a thought or an idea…like Mike Pence rather than to treat every issue as a personal attack upon his character and lash out the way Trump does.
Pence killed it during the debate. Trump just put people off. I dont care that a candidate look “more normal” in order to win. Less Trumpian, would work nicely though.
Harry: Trump was the guy who won in 2016.
I wished then he was a more regular candidate, but he wasn’t. I’ve watched him closely since and I can’t tell how much of what I, and apparently you, find off-putting turns out to be a factor in his effectiveness. He certainly keeps the Democrats off-balance.
Without Covid and with a booming economy plus the traditional incumbent advantage, I’m sure he would be a shoo-in this year.
There’s no way to know for sure, but I doubt Pence would have won in 2016 and I doubt he would win in 2020 if Trump hadn’t happened.
Better read this … not happy.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/08/patel-the-election-may-be-over/
huxley: I agree that without covid, and the lock-down crushing economy, Trump would be doing much better. I think he still could be doing better now if it werent for all the unforced errors he’s committed. I dont believe his personality elevated him to his win back in 2016 as much as Hillary’s help cause her defeat. I can say that Trump’s personality sure isnt winning it for him this cycle. Trump being Trump is going to cost us this time around.
“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are probably the two worst national candidates I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.” – Neo
I really thought that, once Hillary was finally out of the running, the Democrats would settle down and make sane choices for their candidates.
That’s 2020 for you.
Harry: Trump being Trump is all we’ve got. I’m reminded of what Fritz Perls, the founder of Gestalt Therapy, used to say to his clients when they wished someone was different:
_________________________________________________
If your grandmother had wheels, she would be a motorcar.
_________________________________________________
Besides if you agree that Trump would have won in other, more normal circumstances, then the real problem isn’t Trump, it’s bad timing.
Harry,
If Cruz or Rubio had been the candidate in 2016, they would have lost to Clinton. Neither candidate would have carried any state in the midwest except for Indiana. Rubio would probably have carried Florida, but would have lost by at least 40 electoral votes. I don’t know how many times I have to make this point, but there it is for about the 100th time. The Republican Party as it stood in 2015 has lost the ability to win national elections- they lost that when they lost the ability to win Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. The only way to win was to pick the midwest lock of the Democrats, and Trump was the only candidate capable of doing that. I don’t know that he can repeat it in 2020, but he is the only Republican candidate that could have won this year, too.
Yancey Ward:
But if that’s the case – and it well might be – even if Trump were to win in 2020, what about 2024? How could a different GOP candidate accomplish the same thing in 2024? I can’t imagine who it would be. Especially with education and the media being what it is – the indoctrination and the bias.
I noticed something, though, in an article I saw somewhere. It was analyzing the black vote, and it mentioned that black men support Trump much more than black women do. And this is particularly true of black men in their 30s. Not sure what it all means, though.
“Is the Scott Adams article still considered a good tool to use?” – JimNorCal
Depends on what the meaning of “good” is.
As a tutorial on how to present evidence debunking the claims, it is excellent.
BUT — and it’s definitely a capital-letter but — he also gives an amazing description of what he calls the “hoax funnel” – and concludes that no amount of evidence or reasoning will cause true-believers to admit that the hoax was, well, a hoax.
I think you might find a very few people who can be persuaded, as evidenced by the WalkAway testimonials, but most people will respond as documented by Neo and others so often about their own family friends (this is at the end of his post):
One point I found particularly interesting was about the persistence of the belief that Trump has, somehow, NEVER denounced white supremacists and racism.
We all know how that is playing out now (a year later), courtesy of the media flacks, including one from Fox* — and note what follows that segment of the funnel in Adams’ account:
The only change I can see today is that the “this” doesn’t follow anymore; they simply quit making any kind of response altogether at that point.
However, the next segment is interesting precisely because it addresses that Fox reporter — last year, we would naively have considered him an outlier at the “officially conservative” network, but that turns out to not be the case — he is, like so many others, just dropping the pretense of being “fair and balanced.”
Adams predicted John Roberts*, and didn’t even know he was being prophetic.
(repeating a phrase for context)
Adams credits himself for starting the debunking ball rolling in 2019, and deservedly so. However, the debates are prime evidence for his observations that debunking the Charlottesville Hoax has had absolutely no effect on the Democrats’ rhetoric, and probably their beliefs.
But now there are a lot more of us who know they are wrong, and have some insight into what to expect in conversations concerning any other mistaken beliefs they have (aka lies they tell) about President Trump.
*(among others)
https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2020/10/02/nolte-fox-news-channels-john-roberts-chris-wallace-are-liars/
My prediction :
If Trump wins – riots. Many, many riots.
If Biden wins – Economic disaster, followed by Chinese hegemony.
Now, this is a meaningful poll.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/08/poll-56-percent-americans-better-trump-four-years-ago/
But don’t get cocky.
On the question of whether or not national polls have any actual bearing on predicting election results, Rufus noted in another thread that they only reflect (possibly) the popular vote, not the Electoral vote — which has to be predicted one state at a time.
True – but the plan, as noted by Neo, is to prepare the Democrats to wreak havoc if Trump repeats the 2016 results that Hillary keeps whining about.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2020/10/07/the-vice-presidential-debate-is-tonight/#comment-2518706
Doc Zero again – sometimes I think we were clones separated at birth, because I usually agree with him, but he articulates what I am thinking much better than I do.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1313819274071412736.html
And the media conveniently forgets to tell their public about most of his accomplishments.
I’m glad Neo has expressed her misgivings so clearly. From where I live in Australia I have to repeatedly remind myself that all I know about American elections counts for nothing going back to my father walking around the house saying “I’ll be damned” the morning after Truman’s lpss to Dewey in 1948. Nothing. So I am prepared for a Biden win. Trump hate seems bottomless and and it is hard to imagine it not carrying the day. But what seems hardest to fathom is the deep churning in the American psyche caused recently by the covid experience and the riots and longer term by 4 years of overt refusal by the Democrats (and the Never Trumpers) to accept the results of the 2016 election. My sense is that the pandemic and the rioting has sped up the deeper psychic process. For example, until those recent events, we have seemed years away from an administration openly challenging critical race theory. So I think it could go either way. The electorate could put Biden in hoping to regain normalcy, or prefer Trump if enough voters perceive the Democrats as dangerous bad actors. But another way to see it is in terms of social class. In 2016, the Trump successfully appealed to the white working class and Hillary gave him an enormous boost with her deplorables remark. I think the result this time around will depend on the extent Trump can win over the black and brown working class vote. In terms of class it is worth remembering that most of us here, including Neo, are probably more middle class, well educated and certainly highly verbal! Nonetheless, I think it is a time of crisis for America and Western Civilisation and that we may be headed for some really hard times and it behooves all of us to back away from the spectacle to a place of perspective on our most deeply held values which can sustain us even when disaster manifests itself.
Worrying about the polls is a symptom of fear about the election, and what will happen if Biden/Harris (or Harris/Biden) wins.
Doc Zero again, reminding us of the stakes.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1313450368005795842.html
On yard signs: I am seeing very few of either candidate in my near-Denver ‘burb.
However, I am seeing a few surrogates: a few of the “catachism signs” (h/t huxley) and a LOT of American flags, which normally only come out on holidays.
A couple of weeks ago, I drove past a house where they were putting up a new 40’ steel pole, which now flies Old Glory AND a Trump flag.
Land of the free, home of the brave.
But it’s going to be bad regardless of who wins (for whatever value of vote-counting you assign to “win”).
I don’t think I can find them all now, but there were several posts about wins in courts over the Democrats’ attempts to relax voting conditions to help Biden, and some still to be resolved.
Quick list:
https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/10/08/quick-hitter-on-new-ohio-federal-court-judge-order-rewriting-ohio-election-laws/
Ohio
https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/10/08/quick-hitter-on-new-ohio-federal-court-judge-order-rewriting-ohio-election-laws/
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/breaking-true-vote-requests-supreme-court-consider-montana-mail-vote-lawsuit-legal-standard-country/
Montana
https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/10/06/us-supreme-court-is-poised-to-act-quickly-on-case-challenging-pa-election-law-changes-imposed-by-pa-supreme-court/
Pennsylvania
https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/10/05/supreme-court-strikes-down-rewrite-of-state-election-law-by-district-court-judge-the-battle-is-joined/
South Carolina
Don’t panic –
https://www.redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/10/08/just-a-friendly-reminder-that-the-polls-now-are-exactly-where-they-were-in-2016/
Is it fair to say to that if *Biden/Harris win that the American people are fickle and gullible? Let’s exclude any major effect of voter fraud via mail-in. In my eyes Trump should garner a 2nd term, but MSM, social media and academia have all done a splendid job of ramming Orange Man Bad narrative and, most recently, Trump Knew People Died COVID response narrative. Add in how BLM became the darling of social media within weeks of the first protest. If you’re an “influencer” you were reading the Woke BLM reading list. You had the BLM “resource list” in your instagram bio. You either posted a black square or wrote a blog entry on how you’re doing your best to become anti-racist because not being a racist wasn’t cutting it. The world bent the knee to follow BLM. And the world despises Trump despite his three **Nobel Peace Prize nominations.
I don’t have much faith in the American people which I’m sad to admit. The have been inundated with Orange Man Bad and I do think they have been receptive to it. I hope I’m wrong. I hope I’m so, so wrong.
* My prediction is that Biden/Harris will win the 2020 election.
** Biden also received a nomination but if you read the letter of recommendation you knew it was based off of utter horse manure.
Back to the Scott Adams post — this video kind of short-circuits the hoax funnel (in this case, the lie funnel), although it’s not clear if the Democrat had his mind changed, or just was forced to give up his contentions in that situation.
https://www.redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2020/10/08/heh-bidens-own-words-get-used-against-supporter-who-accused-trump-fans-of-supporting-a-racist-watch/
One note: the MAGA group he’s confronting are Hispanic.
They don’t seem to be very shy.
Will any of these people talk to pollsters?
https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/10/08/blm-rioters-terrified-elderly-woman-when-they-attacked-her-home-get-called-out-by-trump-supporter/
T;
Good points. I ran into a liberal Australian friend who is married to an American from California. She had said Trump has accomplished things that pleasantly surprised her and thinks Trump will win the election. She also said she has friends in California that loved Hilary in 2016, but do not like her now.
This is speculation, perhaps voters are more aware then we give them credit for.
We will see.
Biden/Harris have chosen the pandemic as their major focus. There seems to be a reaction against lockdowns gaining support rapidly. Here is a good example of the emerging thought: https://www.city-journal.org/lockdowns-must-end
Here is their summary: “The lockdowns may have been justified in the spring, when so little was known about the virus and the ways to contain it. But now that we know more, there’s no ethical justification for continuing this failed experiment.”
If the reaction becomes a tidal wave it could change public opinion dramatically against the Democrats. It could result in very low Democrat turnout and very high Trump turnout. It could turn close Senate and House races into Anti-Lockdown Trump focused contests, with Republicans winning.
Neo: “Andy: Look again. That’s only because the opposition to the Antifa person is split. The opposition needs to consolidate behind someone.”
If that many percentage of people were willing to vote for some other fringe political philosophy like KKK or Nazis would you be making the same rationalisation? I doubt it. You would be saying, these people really are crazy. Iannarone is espousing a political movement that has resulted in more deaths than any other political movement, as well as being an abject failure economically, and 41% of Portlanders are OK with that.
“Biden/Harris have chosen the pandemic as their major focus”
Yes on my local NextDoor the Prog voices repeat over and over that Trump killed 200K people.
Dem leaders who urged turning away from xenophobia and instead flocking to Chinese New Year celebrations are forgotten.
Dem governors who endangered elders in long term facilities are forgotten.
And so on.
Steve Deace has had several sections of his show on polling. Yesterday’s a summation. Worth the listen on what he thinks is going on. He worked for Cruz.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/steve-deace-show/id481087877
Having read all the remarks I see five themes. I will comment on each.
1) That the polls have a loss for Trump but nobody really believes it.
2) The polls are flawed.
3) There will be violence in the street,
4) Massive vote fraud
5) Lawsuits, court actions and other shenanigans all in an effort to disrupt the election/re-inauguration
First, the polls vs. signs vs. the shy Trump voter. Let us face it, the institutions of the world order are arrayed against Trump. My pitch during local door knocking, I say that Biden has the support of 1) Big Business (Chamber of Commerce endorsed Biden) 2) Big Labor 3) Big Technology 4) Big Government and 5) Big Education. I now have to add Big Media to the list. I ask the persuadable person do they support this? It gets them thinking. Changing minds is a process and not a point in time.
The forces arrayed against Trump (and us) are doing everything possible to suppress, discourage, shame and intimidate Trump voters. But it is not working because of the channels of social media and texting has circumvented their gatekeeping functions. On Friday, Trump will guest host the Rush Limbaugh show for three hours. Talk about a tour de force. He has skipped all the gatekeepers and it drives them crazy.
Trump has taught all of us it is okay to fight back including the current Republican party. Think about Nunes, Jordan, McCarthy and Gaetz vs. prior Republicans like Ryan (now firmly ensconced at Fox), Boehner and Gowdy. They rolled over when the Democrats or media chastised them. Now in the Senate we have Cotton, Hawley (I am VERY impressed with him) and Graham 2.0 vs. McCain, Graham 1.0, Alexander and Burr. Lately Johnson and Grassley are not acting like limp wristed beta males nor is McConnell. They are exerting their powers like they are Democrats. It is refreshing to see and how the “bigs” react to it. Amy Barrett nomination and the Republican determination to confirm her is an example of new back bone and resolve in the Senate. Trump was wise to keep her back for when Ginsberg death create a vacancy.
We, the deplorable forgotten ones, are exerting ourselves and will do so come November 3rd. Even though mass ballots are going out in various states, the Democrats are switching course and urging in person voting because they realize that there is no control over how well the ballots are completed and many ballots will be dis-qualified. More than what can be made up in vote fraud. Or people will just not bother to send them in. The experience of the first mail in ballots during the primary raises concerns that many ballots be missed. The Supreme Court has just recently exerted itself essentially stating there is to be no monkey business with court orders interfering with election integrity.
For fraud to work it must be hidden. We know about it and are geared up to combat it. The Project Veritas exposure in Minnesota now forces authorities to react to it or drive the vote buying underground such that the numbers will not make a different. Also election precincts being closed to watchers in Philadelphia has been stopped. I am a poll challenger in MI and I have volunteered to work Detroit on election day. Cold anger and determined resolve drives me and many others to do this.
The fear of COVID is dissipating with the Trump voters and remains high with the Biden supporters. The unintentional result of the fear mongering is to discourage the Biden voters from coming out. That would be a huge kick in the pants if that transpired. I see that tendency coming out when I am door knocking. People who are inspired to vote for something are much more likely to go out and vote regardless the circumstances. Hot anger is a passion that quickly dissipates and must be constantly renewed and stoked. This is the Biden voter by and large. Cold Anger or calm resolve will not let anything stand in its way. Trump supporters are the latter.
Second, the polls and their flaws. Ignore all of them. They are all push polls with bad…really bad underlying data. Over the years we have become educated about polls how they work and have learned to discount them. Even the unaware are suspicious of polls because the trumpeted results have so frequently been proven so wrong. The classic story of polls tightening at the end of the election cycle with the excuse the undecided breaking one way are now worn out. Ignore all polls, even FOX NEWS. The “hard news” portion under Bret Baier has joined CNN, MSNBC, ABC and CBS in their distain for Trump. The opinion side of Fox is still what Ailes designed it to be as a counterweight to the deep state hegemony. Fox Management will not touch them because so much profit comes from the opinion side.
Third, violence in the streets. Here is the flaw for the Democrats. It only works when there is no counter reaction. If it spills out of limp wristed authority jurisdictions like Portland, it gets squashed in a hurry. Band waggoners and Criminals will not participate. Areas where this works are dominated by Democrats. In a sense it is war against their power base. Another source of voter suppression in the wrong direction. Note that there is no effort to riot in Detroit who has a mayor and police chief that will not put up with it no matter how the local BLM/Antifa branch whines about it.
After the election, riots will be quickly snuffed out because people and authority will not tolerate it. Even in New York City. The money hole is so big that they know that the jurisdiction cannot tolerate it. The hope of Nancy Pelosi getting relief to them is dying. Mass layoffs and program cancellations are looming. But as I tell people who bitch in Michigan about Whitmer. “Just remember, you voted for this.” In New York, twice. It stops most people from arguing with me.
On November 3rd, violence at the polling place will not work in competitive precincts because the police and Republican party will be ready for it. After election day Trump and Barr are ready to use the insurrection act and come down like a ton of bricks on Antifa even if the election has not been called. So the violence will be short lived and counter-productive. Pre-election violence only drives people to Trump. It is starting to be realized by the Democrats.
Violence in Democratic strongholds while making great headlines and TV are only damaging to the Democrats. It will happen because Antifa is not longer in deep state control. They will riot and be suppressed. Coming to rich white women suburbs will not be tolerated by them. They will force authorities to react.
Fourth massive vote fraud. I conflated it earlier with the polls. But if we show up in such massive numbers that they realize there is not way they can conjure up enough fraudulent votes to overcome it then it will go away. When it is exposed it is short circuited. The Republicans and the deplorables are aware thus I believe it will not work.
Fifth – lawsuits and other shenanigans. This is the danger phase. After election and before inauguration is the point of highest risk. They will go to court to challenge election results at all levels. They will try and change the electors that cast the votes for the president. The deep state actors will block, resist, leak and lie to disrupt the continuance of the Trump government. The threat of the 25th amendment committee is one “arrow in the quiver”.
Here is the problem for these actions. They have shot all their ammo from impeachment, special counsel, FISA abuse, hiding evidence, leaks and so forth. All “arrows” have missed the mark. The Durham probe is getting to the roots of the conspiracy and these people have to protect themselves. No contrivance will now work because events and information are unfolding such they cannot control. Please read this from the conservative treehouse.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/10/08/evidence-surfaces-of-john-durham-grand-jury-team-following-deep-state-rabbit-hole-leading-to-ssci-effort/
In conclusion, we are in the words of a Chinese curse “living in interesting times”. But be of good cheer. We are winning. If you get discouraged, turn off your TV, radio, internet go outside and walk. Go to church and let God’s grace flow over you. Help elect Trump by knocking on doors. Or have gentle discussions with people who don’t like Trump. Let them know that you think that they are good people and we just disagree but consider this. Many people I have used this approach are wavering. Even if they stay home on November 3rd it is a victory. BUT most importantly VOTE! Each vote is so critical. If we win in such numbers that the deep state know they can’t cheat we win. Any violence will be fall on their own base.
As I say at the conclusion of posts at other sites. Set your face to stone. Gird your loins. And act with determined cold anger. We win period.
you are a fearful person, projecting your personal circumstances onto the election. actual Trump supporters aren’t worried at all.
I don’t think you can dismiss polls when they are the only data you have. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Trump down 9.7 points. I don’t think that’s entirely accurate and expect the race to tighten at least a little but if Trump is that far behind on Election Day and wins, it will be by far the worst failure in political history. Worse than 2016. Worse than Truman and Dewey.
Richard Fernandez on Twitter makes a good point that the establishment has gone ALL IN on beating Trump. Short of an actual armed insurrection, they can’t do anything worse or more destructive than what they are doing. That makes them seem incredibly formidable but it is also a demonstration of weakness.
For example, win or lose, what are they going to do to the GOP nominee in 2024? It will almost certainly be someone more “normal” than Trump. How do you even try to pretend that Nikki Haley or whomever is worse than Trump? As the Clinton win in 1992 led to Democratic defeats so profound they literally altered the political landscape of the U.S., a Biden victory in 2020 could be the worst thing to ever happen to our elites.
Mike
MBunge:
One thing they can do, if they win the Senate and House in 2020, is to create two new states (DC, Puerto Rico). Another is to abolish the filibuster. Then they can also give illegal aliens the vote and any number of other things that could easily make a future GOP win nearly or actually impossible.
With all the potential voter fraud the dems have planned I’ve been thinking for a while that it might take 100 MILLION votes for Trump to win.
But the dems continue to give Republicans a lot of ammunition. Just yesterday Pelosi let everyone know that “today we will be talking about the 25th Amendment.”
Less than 30 days out from the election and she brings up this? That could very well hurt House democrats in the election.
“This is fine.” says Mike Bunge. He will continue to make his life in his little world a better place for him so he says. Good luck with that, the left will see to it that he won’t be able to. Until then “This is fine.”
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/this-is-fine
“It taught me just how very susceptible almost everyone I know is to propaganda.”
Much has been written / shown in TV, etc. about Nazi Germany and the ease with which the German populace fell in line with Hitler.
Generally speaking, the oft heard reason for this has/had something to do with the character of the average German; “they are just obedient,” or other similar line of thought.
Recall that from 1933 onward, ALL German media was under the control of the Nazis; there was really no way to hear / view a dissenting view.
(Note that if an “obedient” citizenry existed in a communist nation, you hear/read/see zero about the character flaws of those folks; jeez, what a surprise).
So here today in the good ole’ USA we have about 50% of the adult population believing EVERYTHING the media (the propaganda arm of the demokrats) and the demonkrats say.
Most folks never consider the hypnotic affects of well delivered, incessant propaganda. If you asked most folks, they would most likely insist that they would never be susceptible to that sort of “thought control.”
Yet they are, and they do not even realize it.
They are so hypnotized that when presented an actual FACT that contradicts their belief system, they literally explode into a rage.
For the umpteenth time; the greatest danger a representative democracy faces is the citizenry voting for a national suicide.
We need to work against this concept that there is a popular vote on a national basis that means anything.
Since we don’t vote for President by nation wide popular vote we do not get that result. Adding the popular vote from each state gives us a states aggregate total vote. In states where the population is heavily one sided the vote for the other side may be depressed although in actuality the vote on both sides may be depressed. What we do not know and cannot know from the states aggregate vote is what the outcome of a nation wide popular vote would be.
The election is a joke. We should refuse to accept any outcome that gives the Dems any power. When your criminal opponents intent to change the system of government so you will never have any hope of power again, the proper response is to wipe them right the fuck out of existence.
I saw Steve Moore speak in Omaha last night. You’ve seen him on TV and he is an economic adviser to the President. Moore was in the Oval Office two weeks ago.
He thinks Trump will win despite Dem cheating. While many people don’t like Trump personally, a large majority think he can fix the economy. Moore also thinks lots of silent Trump voters.
His speech might be on the Hillsdale College website.
“any number of other things that could easily make a future GOP win nearly or actually impossible.“
Puerto Ricans are not genetically programmed to vote for Democrats. And if they make DC a state, I think West and East Wyoming and North and South Idaho would make fine additions to the Union.
Donald Trump faced opposition from the media and BOTH political parties and was outspent by hundreds of millions of dollars. He won.
If Democrats can, as they sure will, do a disastrous job with political power and rig the system so they can’t ever lose, the American Experiment is over and the time of gasoline and gunpowder is here. I’ll be joining that fight. You’re writing like you won’t be. That you’ll just resign yourself to slavery and oppression.
Mike
I’m in leafy NY, in an area with virtually no Trump signs and a few Biden signs— yet the Biden sign people are complaining on Facebook that the Trump supporters are stealing their lawn signs.
Head scratcher: there are local Trump supporters? Someone suggested it was the wind. Meanwhile, the streets are quietly full of American flags— as well as racist white supremacists, according to outraged local progressives.
On a side note, we’re having an epidemic of ransacked cars, theft and burglaries. Some say because people are desperate, others say it is because there are no repercussions, meanwhile, everyone is calling the police- cries to abolish them have tapered off.
Does Mr Bunge know squat about Wyoming or Idaho or Oregon or Washington, or California for that matter? Oregon, Washington, and California have large areas (rural for Montage) that do not align with the ruling classes in Salem, Olympia, or Sacramento. Not the case in Wyoming or Idaho. And how exactly are states brought into being, does it go through the Congress? Is it likely that a Congress dominated by the left allow such states?
Does Mr Bunge realize that our hostess is of a certain age that is not usually found throwing Molotov cocktails and who has some health issues and limitations?
Mr Bunge, go all out, unleash the “all caps,” and denounce our hostess!
https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1314566599857274881
When the polls showed Clinton way up, their numbers were a product of miscalculation and hubris and were intended to discourage Trump voters to hopefully not bother voting.
When the polls show Biden way up, they aren’t meant to be accurate, but purposely skewed to show a huge advantage. These polls are not meant to reassure Democrat voters or discourage Trump voters. These polls have been created to justify the fraud the pollsters know will be necessary to give Biden the victory well after election day. When Trump supporters start screaming bloody murder after the last bag of found ballots, all cast for Biden, wins Biden Florida by 3 votes, the Democrats will smugly say, “There was no fraud. After all, if you lived in reality, you would have noticed that every poll showed Biden leading the entire race. If you believed in MATH and SCIENCE, you would have realized you never had a chance.” And the Republicans will hang their heads, and accept that explanation.
More good news; “OMG! NO ONE Is Showing Up to Biden-Harris Events and NO ONE Is Watching Online – Biden-Harris Have Only 3% of President Trump’s Online Viewership”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/omg-no-one-showing-biden-harris-events-no-one-watching-online-biden-harris-3-president-trumps-online-viewership/
[Moore] thinks Trump will win despite Dem cheating. While many people don’t like Trump personally, a large majority think he can fix the economy. Moore also thinks lots of silent Trump voters.
Cornhead: I have a hard time believing the majority of Americans are on-board with hard-core Antifa/BLM/SJW craziness and riots. That’s my gut sense.
However, it would be nice to see more encouraging polls.
There’s every reason to believe that Trump won in 2016 because of “not Hillary” and I would say there is even more vociferous hatred for our President than there was for Hillary. That combined with the effects of the propaganda & brain-washing that have become evident and the likelihood of fraud as never before due to the mail-in fiasco in the making I am very concerned.
I read a post at Chicago Boys regarding ballot casting that left me very confused. Here in Los Angeles county, two years ago my husband received an Absentee Ballot though he had never requested one. When he showed up at our polling place (as we always have) he was given a provisional ballot. Now we each have these mail-in ballots. I have no idea what to expect or how to go about insuring proper registering of our vote. We both intend to vote in person as we think that should be the norm. Any advice?
MBunge:
You sound a bit overwrought. Actually, more than a bit.
There is nothing – and I mean nothing – I have ever said that ought to give rise to the idea that I have any intention of “resigning” myself.
GB, why should the Dems waste their time showing up for any Harris/Biden event? They know who they are voting for, let the press do the heavy lifting. Besides we can’t have any Dem super speader events like those anti-science Trumpsters. Besides, they don’t care about Biden at all, they just hate Trump, so why bother?
Sharon W: “Any advice?”
1) register with the app. it will text you 3 times– when your ballot is mailed out to you, when the ballot is received back on their end, and when they’ve processed your ballot.
2) vote early
if 2 ballots come in, they will count the first. if you think someone might hack your ballot get it submitted
3) re: provisional ballots after records show you already voted
I just got CA election worker training. if you pound the table and make demands they will often allow you to submit a provisional ballot to make you feel better. it gets discarded later, to be honest. Once a ballot is submitted, accepted and processed as yours, there’s no way to find it and undo it.
Phone numbers to get ballot status:
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status
Register to get texts on ballot status:
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status/wheres-my-ballot
Sharon W, LA County should have a Board of Election site with specific information on how to handle mail-in versus in-person voting. Surf around the site and see if they have answers.
http://lacounty.gov/government/elections-voting/
I agree with JimNorCal. Find out NOW if voted ballots have been received in your names, and file a complaint if so.
Thank you Kate & JimNorCal.
Steve Turley runs through the polling data. And on Gallup’s “are you better off” now than four years ago, financially, question (See “T” above) gets second term re-elect test mentions and analysis.
Obama was re-elected with 45% saying they were better off before the 2012 election; 44% the same for Bush in 2004, where both cruised to victory.
Reagan’s re-elect in 1984 was a bit higher, but for George H. W. Bust who lost re-election in 1992, his number was in the low 30s I think…?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3b3aNdYnv4
Check it out.
If economic well-being matters most, and it usually does and almost alway prevails, then Trump at 56% “better off” will cruise to victory.
Ignore the suppression polls.
This might have some effect on Independents who haven’t voted yet.
However, I suspect it will not move the needle much with partisan committed voters.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/breaking-mike-pompeo-says-hillary-clintons-deleted-emails-will-begin-releasing-election-day-video/
It is good to see that at least some Republicans have learned that the Democrats don’t have to have a monopoly on October Surprises.
However, if State has the DELETED messages, they should have been released the day after Trump’s inauguration.
Waiting to see the back-story on this suppression by Obama hold-overs.
I am informed that violence on the streets will happen around election day. Hehe, not hard to see.
When I was warning people here about Leftist voter fraud in 2015, I had a mixture of reactions. Most didn’t see it as all that important, and the ones that did, stated that voter fraud either didn’t exist or that it was minimal.
After 2016, of course, the response would have been “Trump won, so this is no big deal”.
Actually, it is, and 5-20 million fraudulent votes are why the Dems often win the popular vote. They made a few mistakes and got sabotaged in 2016, so they lost the electoral vote. But you can still count the fraud votes, they are still there, just in heavily Demoncrat voting districts anyways.
The way it works is not just pro Leftist votes, but they also delete pro Trump votes. Your votes are never counted. Just like on Facebook. You think you voted or are communicating. Nobody sees you ever voted. In fact, they may have used your address or your relatives, and voted for Hussein or HRC.
This is because if all the fraud votes are for one candidate, it is too obvious in the polls. The polls exist to help fraudulent elections work. America’s system is substantially easy to subvert than Iraq’s purple finger system.
In 2020, I am informed up to 70 million fraud votes will be issued or counted.
They tried being subtle in 2016 and got hacked and counter traced. This time, nothing is to be left to chance. All assets will be deployed. Soros knows.
Trump knows this, which is why he has to bother writing tweets to inform the clueless Americans about mail in fraud. The people have a hard time figuring this out on their own, due to their mental brainwashing and Stockholme Syndrome.
Ymarsakar;
Supposedly it was “Uncle” Joe Stalin who said; it does not matter who votes, what matters is who counts the votes.
Just a reminder for the umpteenth time; Stalin exterminated 20 to 50 MILLION of his own citizens, while Hitler “only” managed to hit the 12 million mark.
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2020/10/08/solomons-america/
She nails it. This is well worth reading. The Democrats have been stealing elections with blatant fraud and the GOP has been afraid that fighting will harm the country. {see Nixon in 1960 refusing to pursue the blatant fraud in Chicago and Texas that gave JFK the win.}
“the problem is saying “I love America too much to want to see her rent by a civil war, or destroyed by loss of confidence in elections” is no longer an option.”
Btw — we know the polls are deliberately rigged because the errors always go in the same direction. Truly random, honest errors would go both ways. Honest pollsters who saw their mistakes consistently go the wrong way in the same direction would investigate why and try to fix it.
Sharon W, you may never see this: it’s a back thread and not very active anymore.
But for the record, my wife gave me a stern talking to on the topic of how to deliver our ballots.
Although there are some stories of people showing up to vote and being informed that their record shows the vote already done, she is much more concerned about US Postal mischief.
Rather than get the ballot in quickly to foil a would-be hacker who submits a ballot in your name, she recommends hand delivering our ballots to the vote center when they open up for in-person voting.
You essentially just put your ballot in a blue bag and walk away. There will be no line to wait in, other than possibly a couple of other people dropping off ballots.
For what it’s worth ….