My takeaway…
…from the new Fox poll, for what it’s worth:
(1) Trump continues to be the front runner, which is no surprise at all.
(2) Voters seem to think he has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton, but the polls also indicate he does the worst of all the major Republican candidates against her. This has been consistently the case. Rubio has the best chance, according to the same polls (including this one).
(3) People’s favorite second choice is Cruz. That means it is likely that, as other candidates drop out (will they ever do so?), Cruz will rise.
I don’t understand how a person so OBVIOUSLY ill-suited to be the president of the US, who will have his finger on the nuclear trigger, who acts like a 7 year old school bully, continues to have any support at all. His supporters have to be like Obama voters, where no matter how much negative information comes out about the guy, they stick their fingers in their ears and sing lalalalalalalala. It reminds me a lot of the people who supported Ross Perot, and Ron Paul, both bizarre little men who said a few things that made sense, but held some SCARY positions. I know some Democrats, and some people who are marginally liberal/centrist, TRUST ME Trump will not be able to capture ANY of their support. They despise the man. The only one they’d even consider supporting would be Rubio. (Not because Rubio is a darling of the left, but because Hillary is such a horrible candidate and they’d consider voting Republican IF we can put a decent candidate up there.) Trump is as crazy as a shit house loon. If I was marginally closer to being a conspiracy theorist, I’d swear that Trump is a Democratic plant sent to destroy the Republican party. Guys, for once we have a wealth of talented candidates. Let’s pick a candidate who might actually be good for America, instead of some five year old.
I understand the appeal of Trump, in terms of being un-PC – especially about immigration, but why anyone would actually want to vote for him as POTUS is beyond my understanding.
Out of all the politicians, you’d think Cruz and Rand would lead the pack.
In the latest Iowa poll, though, Trump’s now behind Cruz. And Trump’s Iowa campaign seems not at all well organized to get out the caucus vote.
Cruz has a developing ethanol problem with Iowans, though — he’s not only against the subsidy, but even sponsored a bill to kill it. Carson’s strong anti-ethanol position may be what did him in there.
I’m hoping this all shakes out to Rubio’s benefit.
Losing Iowa Could Be Trump’s Kryptonite
GRA, it’s because immigration is the most important issue facing this country right now. If we don’t fix it then soon it will be impossible and we will have lost our nation. It’s called Adios, America! Google it.
i am almost certain trump will not win Iowa. And I do not think Cruz’s position on ethanol will be the reason he loses the caucus. He has several key endorsements and a good ground game. I joined his campaign a few days ago. And, wouldn’t it be lovely if trump came in third or fourth?
Tom:
I agree.
However, there is no question that a lot of Republicans support Trump. I hesitate to use the word “Republicans” because, although they have usually voted Republican in their lives, they have been spitting angry with the GOP for many years (probably starting some time during the Bush administration, but accelerating since then) and their anger at the GOP trumps (pun intended) anything, including reason.
It is profoundly distressing that, as you said, they are following another pied piper, particularly since this year there are many viable alternatives. But their rage drives them, and their rage is at Republicans rather than Democrats. So if they get what they want, I think we will all lose.
I also think Trump will lose if nominated. But I’m not at all sure most of them care; they want the party to be destroyed, and so it’s okay with them.
parker:
About that ad campaign mentioned in the Bloomberg piece I linked to above:
Don’t you think that has the potential to cut into the support for Cruz?
Iowa chose Huckabee and Santorum in the last two cycles. Cruz’s strong evangelical ties put him in the same company as those two losers.
It is not clear that Hillary would beat Trump. He has closed the gap and has beaten or tied her in some polls. He hasn’t gone after her very hard, yet. But look what he has done to Jeb Bush. Bush is spending millions on ads and getting no traction. Bush is forever tagged as “low energy”.
Count me amongst those who want the GOP to go the way of the dinosaurs. That doesn’t mean I want Donald Trump for president. I want Ted Cruz. But I have a feeling that the fix has been in for years (see the latest funding of Obama’s Christmas Wish list). No Republican is going to win a presidential election while the people of this country continue to worry about Kardashians and the latest Twitter outrage and most Americans trust mainstream journalism and the rigged polling process.
All that being said, if Trump scares you, the GOP should scare you more.
Their latest betrayal should be the last straw. It should finally dawn on conservatives that the
Powers That Be, the monolithic Uniparty in Washington DC has zero interest in governing. Only in preserving their position and its perks.
We will not vote our way out of this. We cannot vote our way out of this. Trump is the just the most visible symptom of a very late stage cancer, one that metastasized because the GOP establishment rolled over one too many times.
Who knew that a majority in congress was so useless? Sell outs and traitors. Cowards all of them.
It’s time to start over.
And still, people here and elsewhere (not necessarily you Neo)will rail against Trump’s followers as if they are the problem.
Neo-neocon writes:
Here’s what Sarah Palin had to say about the Omnibus bill:
Tell me where she is wrong. Tell me one thing the GOP has done for conservatives.
I will not vote for Rubio under ANY circumstances.
The GOPe wants him, because he’s Hispanic and he’s for open borders. If he’s the nominee, I’m voting Libertarian.
PatD:
I missed the part where I defended the omnibus bill, or said she’s wrong.
I don’t care for the Republican Party, and I am angry with it. But I’m not going to support Trump out of pique.
In fact, I’ve said elsewhere on this blog that I think the GOP should pass the right bills and put them on Obama’s desk and force him to veto them. But I don’t kid myself that this would lead to anything but a repeat of the showdowns of the past. I think that would have some value, but it’s still, as they say, kabuki theater. However, if a Republican president were to be elected, the calculus would change—particularly if, as I’ve also advocated, conservatives primary some of the RINOs and get a higher percentage of conservatives in Congress.
Palin didn’t mention that the omnibus bill included CISA, which effectively repeals the Fourth Amendment. Now the government can monitor all of our online communication without a warrant.
That omnibus bill was historic. Historic in the sense of the Fugitive Slave Act. And it will have similar consequences.
Trump is popular because of his stance on immigration. Period. This one thing will solve so many of our problems and regular people recognize that.
You can try to point out that this guy or that guy is also ‘tough’ on immigration, but because Trump said it first, took the heat, and pushed forward, he gets the benefit of that. The rest of the field, unless they have a definitely history of being tough on immigration, look like they are pandering for votes.
That’s pretty much what it boils down to.
We HAVE to have a Republican president to get ANYTHING done. I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately. We conservatives have expectations that are out of line with reality much like sports fans who expect their team to win a championship every year. If you look at the history of all of this, we haven’t gotten where we are in a short period of time. This has been a long slow march that’s been going on since the ’60’s. Maybe even before. There is NO WAY that things are going to change over night. I sometimes agree with the assessment that we’re already doomed, and it’s too late. That may be accurate. Democrats were VERY patient in what they’ve done. They’ve taken small bites and pieces a little at a time for decades. We don’t have the press on our side, we don’t have pop-culture on our side, we don’t have the educational system on our side, and right now we are very limited in what we can do. So, we can throw up our hands and accept defeat, we can go the chaos route, or we can act like mature adults and patiently take a little at a time. Ryan (and by extension the Republican party) would have been CRUCIFIED if the government had been shut down over the budget, and we would have suffered big losses in the coming election. As it is, we might lose the senate. We’re going to have to accept a path to citizenship. We can’t deport 11 million people. Obamacare was cast in stone the minute the supreme court ruled it was a tax, and not a penalty. We’re going to have to take some small victories, and not try to eat the entire elephant at once. I’m not a big fan of this either, but there aren’t other options. I wanna see Hillary burned at the stake, but when she’s able to blow everything off by saying “What difference does it make”, with no blow back whatsoever, we have some work to do.
The lack of support for Jeb has nothing to do with Trump. Jeb NEVER had any real support.
@Tom. We can deport 11 million people. If we don’t, the Democrats will have a permanent majority. So, how do you accomplish it?
Just enforce existing laws. Then they will have no choice but to go home.
A. Cut off welfare.
B. Evict from HUD housing.
C. Implement e-Verify.
D. Crack down hard on employers using illegals.
E. Deport illegal felons.
F. Deport illegal gang members.
G. Do not allow the children of illegals to attend public schools.
H. Block remittances by illegals.
I. Deny illegals tax-payer subsidized health care for non-emergency treatment unless they pay full-freight up front.
J. Anchor babies benefit from the criminal activities of their parents. Congress can stop them from becoming citizens.
K. Block federal funds to sanctuary cities.
L. Reverse all of Obama’s illegal immigration executive orders and deport all those covered by his illegal actions.
Past Presidents have deported millions of illegals. The next President can do it, if they have the will and the people’s mandate.
A little post 9/11 history:
Here’s what Mark Steyn had to say in 2007:
neo-neocon Says:
December 19th, 2015 at 4:52 pm
Are you freaking serious?
The GOP has repeatedly sold out the American people. They refuse to oppose Obama’s dictatorship, they continue to support endless deficit spending, they support endless immigration from the Third World, and opposition to that is devoid of reason? Seriously?
@neo-neocon
I didn’t mean to imply that you supported omnibus. Sorry.
Tom – You’re right on the money. I do think that we’ve made a lot of gains since the 1960’s, too, or at least slammed shut the Overton window. The marginal tax rates are a fraction of what they used to be. We’ve significantly cut back the old welfare system. No one even pretends anymore that the Democrats have anything meaningful to say on education or entitlement reform. Gun control legislation isn’t going anywhere, and the Supreme Court actually checks the Constitution now before ruling. Whatever weaknesses in our civilian leadership, the reputation of the US military is back to what it should be. Not much of that is glamorous, and it sure took more work than it would have in a healthier society, but that’s the nature of conservatism. We’re janitors and maintenance men, not construction workers and demolition crews.
Nick Says:
December 19th, 2015 at 9:40 pm
You are living in a different universe than I am.
I wish I was living in yours.
Ann,
Late back to the thread, but no, I don’t think the ethanol issue will make or break Cruz. The caucus involves argument and persuasion amongst neighbors. Cruz champions many issues that motivate Iowa gop voters. IMO he has a strong conservative record that includes winning at SCOTUS. Trump is the reality tv braggart. That runs against the grain in Iowa.
rickl,
I often identify with your take on issues of importance; but we part ways when it comes to the donald. Another imperial president ain’t the way.
I want strong border measures too, but Trump is not helping. In fact he’s making a mockery of the issue by being a buffoon. From now on, any common sense argument you can make for tougher borders gets buried by the fact that its been championed by this vulgar clown.
If Trump isnt a secret democrat plant, then there;s a kind of supernatural evil to all of this.
Harry,
I suspected early on that trump was the clinton’s trojan horse, and commented so here several times. I still see him as a spoiler for hrc. He was throughout his past, remains so today, and will be in the future, just another crony capitalist.
What difference does it make now? The Grand Old Party just euthanized themselves. The civil war has already started.
Sorry, rickl, you’re wrong.
CISA doesn’t repeal the 4th amendment. It doesn’t permit the government to listen to your phone or internet conversations without a warrant. It does make it easier for companies that want to share the information WHICH THEY ALREADY HAVE AND DO share with the government. If you have a beef, it’s with companies that collect and pass data — did you know Apple records everything that’s said to SIRIs? It allows you to set up your own defensive and OFFENSIVE cybersecurity measures. Think about that one for a minute.
Personally, I WANT Target, Walmart, Blue Cross, the Office of Personnel Management, and anyone else who’s been hacked to let everybody know.
And yes, I do want the Feds to know who’s been calling Dagestan, Pakistan, the Sudan, Raqqa, or anyplace else where the Jihadis hang out. I wish they would actually do it — that way the Feds might have stopped the Boston or San Bernardino attacks. I don’t have a reasonable expectation of privacy with respect to who I’m calling or who’s calling me. The call records aren’t even my records exclusively, they’re the phone company’s or the ISP’s records. Do the feds have to get a warrant to have a human being listen to the call? They can and they do, and CISA has no effect on that. The telcos and ISPs always could give whatever information they wanted to the feds. Take it up with them!
Cruz voted against the metadata program — I could never support him for that reason alone.
“Cruz voted against the metadata program – I could never support him for that reason alone.”
That’s one of the reasons he’s been my preferred candidate.
And yet, and yet, the polls are seen to be increasingly inaccurate (if you want that to include The Donald’s success, knock yourself out).
Even the Lefties say so.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html
http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2015/09/28/why-public-opinion-polls-are-increasingly-inaccurate
http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/08/06/427488198/what-you-need-to-know-about-early-polls-and-how-to-read-them
So you might as well go with your gut.
Pat D, one of the things I said in my previous post is that the media is NOT ON OUR SIDE. When they report those kinds of activities, and they will, it won’t be that the Republicans are protecting Americans by getting illegals to self deport. It will be those angry heartless Republicans are taking health care away from poor children, who are now forced to go without treatment for easily curable diseases. A really classic example of this is the Planned Parenthood videos. The media called them deceiving and heavily edited, and dismissed them. People who don’t watch Fox News, or read conservative blogs hardly even knew they existed. I think a really outstanding place to start on illegal immigration would be to pass a law that fines employers so heavily that they dare not hire illegals. But again, we can’t do even that right now, because Reid has enough votes in the senate to filibuster any attempts to pass it. We have to win elections in order to change ANYTHING. America is a country of roughly 320 million people. All with different backgrounds, life experiences, and agendas. It does not, and never will, turn on a dime without some major event which acts as a catalyst. In order to change things, you have to convince enough people that your way is the right way. You can’t just demand that they see it your way and change their thinking. I think we have a decent slate of candidates for president this year. EVERY one of them has a few warts, but it”s the best field we’ve had since Reagan ran. Rubio isn’t my preferred candidate. One thing I believe is that if a Republican congress and Senate puts Republican legislation in his desk, he’ll sign it. Maybe then we can begin to right the ship. As long as there’s a Democrat in the White House, NO Republican legislation will get signed, and since we don’t have enough votes to override a veto, it sticks. I’ve always thought of “our” side as being the logical, thinking side. Let’s try being that, for once.
Tom,
“As long as there’s a Democrat in the White House, NO Republican legislation will get signed, and since we don’t have enough votes to override a veto, it sticks. I’ve always thought of “our” side as being the logical, thinking side. Let’s try being that, for once.”
Two things:
1) This last week proved that those Republicans you are talking about have no interest in representing their constituents. None. Nada. Zilch. And if you believe that getting a nominally Republican/GOP candidate in the White House will change anything I have swampland for you. After all, what Republican legislation do you see being supported by the representatives who gave us this week’s travesty. All I hear is the same rationalizations that got us here. Which leads numero dos:
2) Logic? Thinking?
Pushing any candidate the GOP puts forth at this point, given their revealed true colors, is the exact opposite of logic and thinking.
Tom:
I agree with you, and I’ve been arguing it for years, but it’s also true that there ARE a number of Republicans in Congress whose interests do seem to align with big government.
I think some of the people who don’t trust the GOP at all anymore are thinking back to when George W. Bush was president and at one point Congress was in the hands of Republicans, and they still didn’t pass the sort of legislation the right would have wanted to see. But Bush was not really a conservative president, and he was so heavily focused on foreign policy (and economic times seemed good) that the conservative agenda did not get tended to. My solution to this is that two things are needed: a more conservative Congress and a Republican president. So I suggest people work for a Republican president and try to get more conservative Republicans into Congress so that they represent a stronger bloc.
But people don’t want to do that. They want it to happen NOW, and for reasons that escape me they believe that (a) the somewhat-liberal and totally-untested big mouthed Trump is some sort of vehicle to want they want; and (b) he will win if nominated, and if he doesn’t win it doesn’t matter because it will still destroy the Republican Party, which is what they actually want.
I don’t think logic has much to do with it. At least, I haven’t seen much logic in evidence. What I see is rage and frustration, resulting in a cult of personality around Trump. Hope and change.
formwiz:
I’ve been hearing for at least a decade that polls are inaccurate. And yet, most of the time, if you take poll averages, they have been quite accurate.
However, there’s a caveat: in other countries recently, particularly those with parliamentary systems, polls have been a lot less accurate. Also, polls on primaries in this country have always been somewhat inaccurate, at least as far as I’ve been keeping track of them. I’ve written about that in this blog a few times. For example, state polls for primaries usually have very small samples, which leads to more inaccuracy.
One can always discount what polls say and go with one’s gut. But polls are the best evidence we have, and they have been more accurate than not.
I wish I knew a Trump supporter as it would help me understand the polls.
I don’t understand the polls because I don’t know ONE Trump supporter.
Are they all in the closet?
@Tom: neo-neocon had a post fairly recently that described the public’s lack of sympathy for an illegal who was busted trying to get healthcare using a fake ID. I think that was the story. So, I don’t think the sob stories are going to work.
neo-neocon writes:
That’s what the Tea Party movement and other conservatives have been trying to do. The problem is distinguishing the fake conservatives from the real conservatives. Take Rubio, for example. He ran a come-from-behind campaign with lots of support from the Tea Party folk. Once elected, the first thing he does is join the gang of eight. Their amnesty bill passed the senate. The only thing that stopped it from passing the house was Cantor’s surprise defeat; the votes Boehner had whipped into line evaporated.
Five of the 37 members of the house Freedom Caucus voted for the omnibus bill. That bill gave the Democrats more than they bargained for and it is a disgrace that any GOP rep. or senator voted for it. So, even declared conservatives cannot be trusted to vote conservative.
It would take many election cycles to build a conservative majority bloc, if ever, especially since the system heavily favors incumbents.
When the current campaign started, I favored Walker, Cruz and Perry. Two folded early, leaving Cruz as the most conservative candidate. However, the more I learn about Cruz, the less I trust him. His position on illegal immigration shifts with the wind. The one thing he won’t commit to is deporting them. There is nothing to stop a future Democrat from giving them a path to citizenship and the vote. That would guarantee Democrat control of the country for generations.
just wanted to say thanks for publishing your blog… I enjoy reading your opinion
PatD:
So hey, if the Tea Party plan didn’t work right away, let’s elect a liberal loudmouth like Trump instead!
I call your attention to this post of mine.
Are they all in the closet?
It’s not a geographic phenomenon, it’s an internet phenomenon, thus most are probably younger than 30 atm.
The one thing he won’t commit to is deporting them.
If conservatives cannot be trusted to make an open stand and stick with it, there’s no reason committing to anything means anything.
If people were really fighting a war, they wouldn’t make their goals so honest and open. They would hide it, just as the Left and Hussein hid it.
I think the fact that terms like “crony capitalism” have gained so much traction, highlights the fact that there is a certain amount of “truth” to the notion that with Dems a kind of social quite ensues across the board.
It is a kind of “truth” that in part is inoculated from emotional dis-confirmation if you are on the left as the lumpen-proletariat left is happy if they are convinced that they are officially loved and valued.
That constituency values feelings of inclusion more than property rights under law. They tolerate objective stagnation and regression of a sort that would have had them storming the White House if a Republican were in office.
And in part it is the result of the phenomenon that the conservative middle of the country functions in such a way – while caring for their families and responsibilities – as to unwittingly “enable” the activities of the left even as they are being relentlessly squeezed.
The left knows this anthropological pattern and takes advantage of it. And until they can kick the scaffolding of the middle class (type of human) away once and for all, they count on it. That is in fact what their whole position on marginal tax rates boils down to: that there is no, or only the mildest, disincentive on the part of the productive to carrying an albatross around their necks, if the government can force them to do so. The victims have after all only two obvious choices: bear the burden or let the house burn down. The other is to drop all they are doing and rebel at the polls or in the streets.
The Founder’s recognized how natural it is for people to put up with impositions until it is almost too late.
Ymarsakar:
Trump’s supporters tend to be older, not younger. See this. See also this, where in a head to head with Hillary among registered voters, Trump is leading 47/43 among over-65 voters but is woefully behind, 25/70, with those under 30.
” neo-neocon Says:
Trump is, ostensibly, about preserving interests which the young, by and large, neither have nor appreciate.
What interest has a skinny young man with cow-eyes and girl hands and footie PJs have in freedom? He’s spent his entire life – and is probably existentially dependent upon – a redistributive system.
It’s like telling someone on a heat lung machine that you intend to stop paying their electric bill, and then putting it up to a vote.
Where did the “r” go?
“Heart-lung machine” or “Iron lung”, either one …
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