Disapproval of Obama is growing—but what does it mean?
Much is being made of the recent drop in Obama’s approval rating, particularly among his usual strong supporters, the young (see also this):
Barack Obama’s job approval rating is down to 45 percent in the lastest CNN/ORC poll, conducted June 11-13, with 54 percent disapproval. The approval number is down from 53 percent in CNN/ORC’s May 17-18 poll. Most interesting result: Obama is getting only 48-percent approval from those age 18 to 34, only 3 percent above his national average.
By way of comparison, Obama’s 66 percent of the vote among 18-29s in November 2008 was 13 percent above his 53-percent nationwide percentage, and his 60 percent of the vote among 18-29s in November 2012 was 9 percent above his 51-percent nationwide percentage. Yes, the two age groups aren’t quite commensurate, but the numbers still suggest that the gap between young voters and their elders is shrinking.
Before we go any further, let’s ask whether it will end up mattering. If the immigration bill is passed, it may not, because one of the main goals of the bill is to swell the ranks of reliably Democratic voters. Obama is well aware of that, and it was always part of his plan.
Bryan Preston writes:
…[N]ow that [Obama’s] re-elected, how much does he really care about his approval rating at all? Even amidst the scandals he is poised for a major victory on immigration, which will permanently change the electorate in his favor. He has likely calculated that not much matters outside that bill, and if he gets a win there, any weakness in the polls is temporary and will take care of itself. As long as Democrats hang onto the Senate in 2014, Obama is invulnerable to public opinion.
I came to the realization some time ago that in his second term Obama might not care about the public’s approval. I wasn’t specifically basing it on an immigration bill, although it was already clear that Obama wanted to tackle that task some day, and that it would be to his—and the Democratic Party’s—great advantage if it was passed.
Back in November of 2010 I wrote this post, composed right after the Republicans’ victorious midterm election, when things seemed a lot brighter and it looked as though the American people might reject Obama in 2012. I speculated, though, that Obama might do a few small things to make the American people continue to like him well enough to enable him to pull out a victory in November of 2012 and a second term:
And then, and then””voila! Four more years! Four years in which he won’t have to answer to the electorate at all. He will be unleashed to do whatever it is he really wants. And does anyone think that would look moderate at all?
Note also, comments like this one from Preston’s recent piece:
[Obama’s] popularity doesn’t matter because he’s never running for office again. What matters is he got his Obamacare monstrosity passed and he’s on the five yard line with his immigration bill. His mission to “fundamentally transform America” is almost complete. That being the case I doubt he gives a frog’s fat a$$ what anyone in America thinks of him.
But let’s examine that poll anyway, because it shows some interesting trends nevertheless, if we’re interested in what the American public thinks (whether Obama cares or not). It was taken June 11-13, 2013, just after the Snowden story first broke but before all of its details had emerged.
Young people have always been among Obama’s strongest supporters, along with blacks (the strongest of all) and to a lesser extent Hispanics. One of the most interesting things about the new poll, as mentioned, is that the youngest of young voters, those 18-34, are less happy with him at present than those in the 34-49 age range, which seems odd. Speculation that it has to do with the 18-34 group’s special sensitivity to issues of online privacy—which I thought might explain it—don’t really seem to, if you look at the poll results more carefully.
If you go to page 20, for example, you’ll see that the figures for the answer to the question “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling government surveillance of U.S. citizens?,” the answers for young people are almost the same as for all other age groups, which are remarkably similar to each other. The range among all the age groups is only between 60-62% disapproval and between 33-39% approval, surprisingly uniform results that don’t seem to indicate any special susceptibility to fears on that score on the part of the youngest demographic. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find any earlier, pre-Snowden polls on the same question, so I couldn’t do a before-and-after, and it’s possible that young people’s views have changed the most on that question.
To make it even more odd, all the age groups responded very similarly to each other on another dimension that seems at first glance to contradict that first one (see page 25), the answer to the question, “Do you think the Obama administration has gone too far, has been about right, or has not gone far enough in restricting people’s civil liberties in order to fight terrorism?” The majority of people in all the age groups either said “just right” or “not far enough,” with a substantial and extremely stable minority of all age groups saying “too far” (the range for that answer was only 42-45% across all age groups, another exceedingly uniform response). So most people in all age groups think our civil liberties are not being encroached on too much, although most people in all age groups don’t approve of the way Obama is handling surveillance of US citizens. The only possible way I can find to reconcile the answers to the two questions is that many of those who responded to the first question by saying that they disapprove of the way Obama is handling government surveillance of U.S. citizens is that they disapprove because he’s not surveilling us enough, rather than that he’s snooping too much. “Disapprove,” after all, doesn’t really tell us in what direction and for what reason a person disapproves.
The biggest area of increased disapproval of Obama among young people, however, seems to be that they have come to distrust him and think him less honest and trustworthy than they once did. Again, we don’t know what they distrust about him or why. It’s possible they think he’s not leftist enough, or not spying on us enough. But whatever the reason, the poll figures show that among all the age groups it’s only the 34-49-year-olds who still trust Obama more than they distrust him. I have no theory as to why this particular group stands out as being more pro-Obama than all the others, but it does on quite a few of the questions.
The entire poll has so much interesting stuff in it that you might want to take a closer look at it; I can only touch on a few things here. But it indicates that no one’s been happy for a long time with Obama’s handling of economics (see pages 2, 4, and 5), particularly the deficit. And young people are no exception there; if you look at page 17, you’ll note that the 18-34 group has the highest disapproval rating of all age groups for Obama on the federal deficit question, which makes sense as they are the ones most likely to be left holding the bag.
On certain topics the public is very united—and some of those topics are rather surprising ones (IMHO), such as that the government has gotten so big it is threatening our rights. Majorities in all demographic groups (including non-whites!) and all ages answer “yes” to that question. That points to something the Republican Party could capitalize on—if, and only if, it is seen as defending these rights. But one wonders, because in the 2012 election it was the Democrats who successfully painted the Republicans as jeopardizing rights to abortion and birth control, and as wanting to put black people back in chains. So it depends what rights people care most about.
And at this point, what difference does it make?
“On certain topics the public is very united–and some of those topics are rather surprising ones (IMHO), such as that the government has gotten so big it is threatening our rights. Majorities in all demographic groups (including non-whites!) and all ages answer “yes” to that question. That points to something the Republican Party could capitalize on–if, and only if, it is seen as defending these rights.”
And that will be impossible until the GOP can quit pandering to the far right that cares more about abortion and gay marriage than it does about the issues that are going to destroy this country if progressives are left unopposed. Here we finally see weakness in the left and what does the House do? It pushes an abortion bill.
Please, I’m not looking to start a fight about either topic. I’m trying to make a point that here and now, in what could be the dying days of the republic, the GOP needs to address jobs, economy, what’s really going to happen with Obamacare and amnesty, and strike where the left is weak, with unrelenting attention to the scandals that are giving even the moderate left cause for pause. There can be no missteps, no more, “oh, never mind about jobs and economy, let’s spend all our time trying to pass laws about gay marriage and abortion.” That’s not what matters to the people who didn’t vote R last time and might be persuaded to do so in 2014 and 2016 – you know, the people we desperately need to attract to our side.
Is there not a savvy PR person in all of the GOP ranks?
Kyndyll, the sword cuts both ways. To go squishy on either is to lose many of the ground troops. So would it truly be a net gain? Maybe, maybe not.
Also, these abortion questions that inevitably get asked are never answered all that well. I think we need the equivalent of the NRA Legis Group to help coach politicians into answering the questions in a non-offensive way.
And the MSM will continue to ask these questions, regardless of what is said. In fact, what you plead for is truly what the TEA/TEA-GOP party is about.
And unfortunately, the RINOs tend to lean towards crcony capitalism at times, and larger government when it suits them. That diminishes their credibility at election time.
“the main goals of the bill is to swell the ranks of reliably Democratic voters. Obama is well aware of that, and it was always part of his plan.
As long as Democrats hang onto the Senate in 2014, Obama is invulnerable to public opinion.
[Obama’s] popularity doesn’t matter because he’s never running for office again. What matters is he got his Obamacare monstrosity passed and he’s on the five yard line with his immigration bill. His mission to “fundamentally transform America” is almost complete. That being the case I doubt he gives a frog’s fat a$$ what anyone in America thinks of him.”
There you go, in a nutshell. If democrat’s then take the House in 2014 it’s over. One party rule will be in effect.
Here’s the reality we face;
“The modern-day Republican Party is basically the Democrat Party under Tip O’Neill. The modern-day Democrat Party is the Democrat Party under Karl Marx”. AWD
“On certain topics the public is very united–and some of those topics are rather surprising ones (IMHO), such as that the government has gotten so big it is threatening our rights. …”
That passage caught my eye as well because I think it provides a clue to those inexplicable “”just right” responses to the earlier question, “Do you think the Obama administration has gone too far, has been about right, or has not gone far enough in restricting people’s civil liberties in order to fight terrorism?”:
Among low information voters and fellow leftists, Obama has succeeded in distancing himself from “the government”. The Limbaugh Theorem is correct: Obama has indeed mastered the ability to always be seen as “opposing everything that’s happening, even the things he is causing to happen. He is on a perpetual campaign.”
I’m not so sure that Obama doesn’t care about his approval ratings. He doesn’t take too well at being booed or called out for lying. Sure he will continue to focus on his grand plans, but I’m not sure how he will react when some of his base starts rebelling. I can’t wait till the Obamacare bills start arriving and the IRS starts pestering the young.
On abortion restrictions: Younger people seem to be less adamant that late-term abortions are a good idea. I would love to see someone ask him if he spoke to Merkel about the war on women in Germany, where abortions are very restricted–at least by Pelosi’s definition.
He cares only to the extent his legacy may be damaged. If he perceives what will be recorded in the ul history books is Nixon-esque, he will do something about it. Otherwise I don’t think he cares. As long as the cheerleaders keep giving him the benefit of the doubt, he won’t care
To the immigration “reform” point – why is it obvious to everyone but the Republican leadership what you pointed out? Everyone except the establishment republicans see this for what it is, except Dunce Preibus, Boner, Rove, McCain – the usual suspects. It’s hard to watch these fools lecture everyone on why we need to do this. Preibus is so ill informed on the statistical and historical data on this subject it’s embarrassing.
I don’t know who would give this man hard earned money for anything. We’re in big trouble.
“What does it mean?”
In fantasy land it means a feel good moment for the NObamafolks.
In reality it is close to the old R. Crumb “Mr. Natural” frame where Flakey Foont asks Mr. Natural, “What does it all mean?” and Mr. Natural naturally replies, “It don’t mean sheet.”
BHO cares to the extent that preening narcissists crave attention and adoration. So he cares a lot. Currently he seems to be a tiny bit uncertain and off his usual game. Keep the pressure on by frequently reminding your politicos that you want answers to the various scandals.
What Does It Mean??
It MeansTheyFigureOut The Gondola Is Really A HandBasket And You All Know Where A Handbasket Find Is Destination
Sorry New Type Software Is Slamming The Caps
aaarrrggghhhhh
I ran into a post on a non-political blog a few days ago that started out, “”I don’t like him anymore.” The post went on to detail the blogger’s disillusionment, starting with Obamacare and extending through the current scandals.
The post got a number of sympathetic responses, instead of lefty vitriol.
I read it and thought – this is the exact voter the GOP needs to reach and it doesn’t seem like it should be that hard. But, I’m not holding my breath the GOP is going to rise to the occasion.
http://juliarachelbarrett.net/2013/06/good-thing-i-didnt-have-this-bulls-eye-on-my-back-when-i-was-in-montana/
Considering what Obama has done and is doing his poll numbers are really rather high. According to Rasmussen he was lower in 2010 than now. If I were him with all the amazing successes he has already had I would not be the least bit concerned.
Juli, anyone who would refuse to vote for a GOP candidate because he or she is “squishy” on the topic of abortion or gay marriage – thereby helping enable a win by the hard-core pro-choice/pro-gay marriage Democrat – is not doing us any good.
One of the problems with the GOP is this lack of dissent. Everyone has to get behind the primary candidate.
A party that has given up on America’s vision of liberty in its own party mechanics, can never ever represent true liberty against the LEft’s darkness.
It’s not unexpected that people would lose faith. Until the REpublican leadership is purged of traitors and Leftist obedient puppets, not much can be done.
Of course, even if a person does not vote for a Republican, he still has responsibility to fight, and kill, Leftists. For traitors they still are to the US Constitutional Republic, even if Republicans are not the saviors many people thought.
The scandals hurt Obama not only because of the nature of the scandal, but that his response is the same as always. He does not look like a leader nor does he act like one. His vague, lead from behind attitude always annoyed conservatives because he was so wrong on many many issues. But now that he does the same thing on stuff younger voters worry about, it has the same impact.