Election today in Venezuela
Did you know there’s an election today in Venezuela? It’s flown under the radar, hasn’t it?
I would ordinarily assume Chavez would win—by hook or by crook. But a blogger I respect, Daniel in Venezuela, confidently predicts an opposition victory.
If that happened, I would be very pleasantly surprised. I don’t see how Chavez would allow it to happen, and if it did happen I don’t see that he would allow it to stand. Daniel in Venezuela has explained his reasons for thinking challenger Capriles has mounted a brilliant campaign:
…I remember that I was mocked about suggesting that the winner of the primary shall visit every one and each of the 300+ municipalities. That is why I complained that the primary date was too late because it would not give enough time to do it.
Today on TV you see politicians admitting that they were surprised at the success of the “casa por casa” which was nothing else but an excuse to visit all Venezuelan municipalities. That was successful because 1) Chavez was not going to do it, even had his health been better and 2) the media empire of the regime only left the option of a close and personal visit as the only way to compensate. Amen that it was taking advantage of the regime mistake in its campaign, to rely more on its media control than actual street campaign. and to contrast more the unbound energy of the challenger again the semi dead president.
Today I can write in all confidence that we would not be discussing a Capriles momentum if he had not done what he did between November and April. Which brings us to the other two things that made all the difference in the campaign.
Capriles has been a formidable campaigner. For a city kid, well educated and cosmopolitan, he morphed spectacularly into a kisser of any frog on his path. And many of these frogs became pro Capriles princes and princesses. He displayed a remarkable energy. True, he is thin, short and athletic, but still, his campaign was nearly herculean. Well, was herculean. And it showed how tired the revolution was.
In other words, Capriles has managed to vault over the obstacles presented by the Venezuelan press—sound familiar? But can he vault over the extremely distinct possibility of fraud?
In a televised interview two nights ago, the president said he would honor the will of the people””as expressed in the results announced by the National Electoral Council. However, the opposition will remain on high alert until the last minute of balloting, and if the result is suspicious, it could be called a fraud. On the other hand, Chavistas have never accepted the possibility of losing, and if they do lose, they could also make accusations of fraud.
I know on what side I think the fraud will be occurring.
[ADDENDUM: Daniel in Venezuela has some reflections on what he plans to do if Chavez wins and what he plans to do if Chavez loses. The “if Chavez wins” may strike a few harmonic chords in some of you:
I have written for ten years against the bastard, starting when hardly a few suspected his fascist nature. If after 14 years the Venezuelan people do not get it, if they prefer subsidy at the price of much degraded living conditions, so be it. I cannot waste any more time blogging, I do not have that many years before retirement and that is now my priority, becoming a bolibourgeois if needed. You want it? Have it! I cannot keep caring and fighting anymore. If what you want is to be screwed, I”˜ll try my best…The blog was started to educate intelligent folks outside the country. This has been done successfully. Others will write the downfall.
Well worth reading.]
As I started posting here in 2009:
Obama= Chavez
I spent a lot of time in Venezuela in the 60’s. At that time, it was pretty democratic…a president made it all the way through his elected term…a first for Venezuela. I’ve been very sad seeing it turn into a dictatorship.
BTW, ladies, this Capriles guy is a good lookin’ man.
Hope he wins.
Ché¡vez won the legislative elections in 2010 by egregious Gerrymandering, a form of fraud he is unable to commit in nationwide elections for President. Thugo’s PSUV won about 64% of the legislative seats although it won only about 48% of the vote.
The difference came by the way the legislative districts were drawn up. Both Venezuelan and US law require legislative districts to have roughly equal populations. In Venezuela, Hugo Ché¡vez and his minions feel no such obligation to draw up voting districts with more or less equal populations, even though the Venezuelan Constitution, written by Hugo’s minions, requires it. “I am the law,” Hugo says.
Miranda State elections results show Chavista gerrymandering at its “finest.” In Circunscripcié³n /Circuito/voting district 3, which we will call Miranda-3, the M.P.J./MUD [oppo] candidate won with 122,847 votes, which represented 59.7% of the total. Doing the math, a total of 205,774 votes were cast in Miranda-3, a district the oppo won. In Circunscripcié³n/Circuito/voting district 7, which we will call Miranda-7, the PSUV [Chavista] candidate won with 54,980 votes, which represented 65.53 % of the total. Doing the math, a total of 83,901 votes were cast in Miranda-7, a district the Chavistas won.
While a PSF [Pendejo Sin Fronteras] may claim this was due to higher voter turnout for the oppo relative to Chavistas, an examination of the number of registered voters shows this claim to be a sham. You can click on Miranda-3 and Miranda-7 to find out the number of registered voters. We find out that in Miranda-3, which went oppo, there are 360,118 registered voters- 321,909 in 2010. We find out that in Miranda-7, which went Chavista, there are 166,266 registered voters- 137,843 in 2010.
To the degree that the oppo has witnesses at the election centers, it will be able to prevent the biggest possibility of fraud: changing the results registered at an individual center by reporting a different result to the central office. There is both an electronic and a paper tally. The electronic tally is reported to the central electoral office. If the oppo is there to get its hands on the paper tally, it can stop this, by comparing the paper tally with what the electronic tally at central office reports. The urban centers will be well covered with oppo witnesses. The fraud will occur in the rural districts, where the oppo is not as well represented.
IF Senor Capriles wins, the rage, squeals, serapes rending and threats from Chavez and his toads will be a nice run-up to the Dems on the night(and many following)on November 6th when Mitt hands the Anointed Infantile Majesty his arrogant head.
If Chavez loses watch for Obama to throw Venezuela under the bus pronto.
“Win or lose, Chavez says he’ll accept result of vote” is the AP headline today. Yeah, right, Hugo, sure you will. In a nominal democracy, even.
That’s why I worry about a November surprise from Hussein here in the good old USA.
When BHO is defeated there will be riots in the inner city areas across the country. Obama & the MSM will feed the flames. Its good to be in flyover country.
Well, el Jefe Hugo is back in with 54% according to the, ahem, entirely objective Electoral Council. It musta been he kept the independents.
When reading Daniel’s blog I felt like I was reading a blog from America’s near future.
BTW, just completed almost all of Klein’s The Amateur. Frankly some parts, like Obama’s initial demands on Israel, were too macabre to be believed. As for the rest, that he is ideology driven incompetent; are more or less a confirmation of already accepted observations.
If the part about Israel is true, then Hillary as well as Obama are straitjacket material.