California has started antibody testing
There’s a reason California is a good choice for such a test:
The team tested 3,200 people at three Bay Area locations on Saturday using an antibody test for COVID-19 and expect to release results in the coming weeks. The data could help to prove another theory, one that believes COVID-19 arrived undetected in California much earlier than previously thought.
As of Tuesday, the state had 374 reported COVID-19 fatalities in a state of 40 million people, compared to New York which has seen 14 times as many fatalities and has a population half that of California. Social distancing could be playing a role but New York’s stay-at-home order went into effect on March 22, three days after California implemented its order.
“Something is going on that we haven’t quite found out yet,” said [Victor Davis] Hanson.
Hanson said he thinks it is possible COVID-19 has been spreading among Californians since the fall when doctors reported an early flu season in the state. During that same time, travel between China and America was unfettered. Some of those visitors even arriving on direct flights from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China.
It makes a certain amount of sense, particularly if there really was an early flu season in California. However, it would also have to have been a particularly lethal flu season, and I would think that would have gotten more attention.
But the tests will tell the tale. I’m eager to hear the results. It’s hard to be patient with so much on the line.
We will all be looking forward to the results, but how and from whom will we hear them? If they indicate a herd immunity in CA, further indicating that the corona is not as lethal as models and projections forecasted, who’s going to spread that word? Not the Major media.
The Uncommon Knowledge podcast has an long interview with the Sanford Univ. doctor that at the time was preparing for the random serology testing in Santa Clara county. The podcast aired about a week ago. It didn’t speak about similar (?) testing in Los Angeles. The Stanford Univ. doctor had some strong doubts about the models being applied to the US at that time.
If the bug arrived without notice….who’s at fault? Trump or Newsome? How does a particularly nasty flu season come to public attention? Either substantial numbers of…what? Doctor visits? Or hospitalizations?.Or ICU beds being used? Or staff getting sick?
Flu seasons vary in all these categories, including mortality.
At what point above the previous three or four worst seasons does this become THE BIG ONE? Because there’s bound to be one worse than….the last big one or the biggest one in the last ten years. And why is that noteworthy except to say this is an even bigger one and people should…..
There seem to be racial differences in things like diabetes, blood pressure, and obvious ones like sickle cell anemia. Is there a difference in whether The Bug goes all serious in one race or another? Are individuals of one race likely to be asymptomatic more so than another?
If so, then the infection rate overall could be pretty high without showing up in the medical system. Or more likely to show up?
Good news! Our God Of Science Anthony Fauci says the government is considering issuing papers to those they deem immune to Coronavirus.
Wouldn’t it just be easier to make the unlucky bastards deemed at risk to wear like, I don’t know, a big gold star visible to all so we can all see them and know to avoid them or maybe harass them or beat the hell out of them if necessary.
It’s all for the public good though so it’s alright.
As a Californian I am happy but frankly amazed that the case and death rate here has been so low. I expected CA to be a hot spot for several reasons. But even densely populated San Francisco has 13 deaths in a population of nearly 900,000, a lower death rate than several of the surrounding suburban counties. I will not speculate other than to say that clearly there is a lot we do not understand about how this virus spreads.
Richard Aubrey:
I was wondering about sickle cell anemia as well, but in particular sickle cell trait, which is far more common. Is it a factor at all? Maybe not, since in Africa COVID is uncommon (so far). I haven’t seen much written about COVID and sickle cell. There’s also thalassemia trait, which is somewhat common in Italy and Spain and somewhat like sickle cell although the mechanism is different. However, it’s also common in Greece, and Greece doesn’t seem to be having much of a COVID problem.
So maybe it’s irrelevant. But I’d like to know, because I have thalassemia trait.
There’s nothing like data to confirm or refute hypotheses. I hope the results are published soon.
It’s hard at this time to determine why black Americans are dying of COVID-19 at higher rates than whites. (This is the case here in NC.) The black population does suffer from uncontrolled hypertension and Type 2 diabetes more than others, and also obesity. But at this point we don’t know if they are simply being exposed more or are more susceptible. In either case, black Americans diagnosed with COVID-19 should probably be put on HCQ and zinc immediately to be on the safe side.
Sickle cell anemia is when you get a particular gene for malaria resistance from both parents.
Given that HCQ is an antimalarial, and that it’s been noted that the disease doesn’t seem to have much penetration into endemic-malaria countries, it will be very interesting to see if the sickle cell gene is partial protection.
And then one would have to explain any differential rates of Covid-19 in American blacks. My surmise, if there actually are higher rates and it’s not just more identity politics, would be a surfeit of obesity and heart disease and lower general health overall, but I’m just spitballing.
Bryan Lovely:
Sickle cell anemia, when you get two genes for it, is fatal if untreated and dangerous and difficult even if treated. Same for thalassemia. It’s the trait for both – in other words, inheriting one gene rather than two – that is protective for malaria.
I wonder if the trait has any effect on COVID, either positive or negative. I have thalassemia trait, which is common in Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, China, and various other Asian countries (there are several kinds of thalassemia and they have different geographic distributions).
Yes, that’s what I was trying to say about sickle cell.
Neo. Did some SubSaharan Africa studies back in the day Far as I know, malaria and several other vicious conditions in the tropics are matters of parasites. Not germs, bacteria, or virii. That said, I don’t know what the critters do once they find themselves a home. Carry a bunch of virii? The use of the quinine-related drugs to stop or cure the C19 suggests the latter. So, says Aubrey, qualified in Army first aid and….not much else, maybe checking those with sickle cell trait and thallassemia trait as an additional bit of info when testing would yield some interesting results. Can we bottle whatever it is thallassemia does?
Got my flu shot AFTER I had a solid cold here in Ca.
However, it would also have to have been a particularly lethal flu season, and I would think that would have gotten more attention.
actually not if you look at the numbers..
a flu season can be 20k 5to 60k
if its a 20k season with 20k extra covids, how would anyone know?
The total for all the US is now 18k…
we see what we notice when we are told to notice
otherwise we excuse things and dont notice…
At the start of an infection with multiple foci, high RO, long infection time, low rate of severe problems, this could hide in the usual flu cases and be hard to see for a month. This seems infectious, but a high number of cases with limited symptoms.
If it takes 2 weeks to develop a case, another week before it gets bad, and it doubles every 3 days, does this look like a virus that is more severe, because the 1 to 2 percent severe cases when you don’t test, look like a 5% death rate from a smaller pool of infected when they finally hit.
San Francisco surprises me. It is the densest city in the west. It has a large Chinese population, and many tourists and conventions. In February they had a large Chinese New Year Parade. Why so few deaths?
At the National Center For Health Statistics website, (one of the CDC centers), they chart Visits for Influenza-Like-Illness. The chart shows total visits by week, broken down by age, and a percent of total patient visits. There is one peak the last week of 2019, and another the 6th week of 2020. There is a lot of interesting info if you can figure out how to navigate their website.
Does the MIT related sewage treatment study which found over 100,000 infected where less than 500 were diagnosed, mean this is far more widespread, but only dangerous when you have a heavy viral load, or a vulnerable population like a rest home, or hospital?
It seems likely that China hiding what they knew contributed greatly to deaths in Europe and America. Italy had thousands coming back from China loaded with the virus. If the ease of transmission is as high as I suspect, Italy got shot with a heavy dose of infected, It then got into the hospital system before they were aware of it, and bingo, you have to shut down Italy. This would not have happened if China had been honest.
The problem is China always lies to barbarians. You can’t trust what comes out of China. Be it words, food, medicine, steel, electronics, or bought politicians. So we should have expected no better from China.
We must stop our reliance on China. The greatest danger is in rare earths where China as a near monopoly on these critical elements. Until we break our reliance, people will die. At least with food and medicine, we have other choices.
A 100% tariff on all critical items from China will encourage businesses to find and create alternatives. We could also tell China we are voiding any treasuries they hold, as punishment for what China has done. That would help draw down our debt for the money we pay out to keep the economy from seizing up in the shutdown.
I had the exact same questions about San Francisco, Presbypoet, as well as the concentration of high tech in the Bay Area that leads to a lot of commerce with and travel to Asia. When I first started looking at numbers a few weeks ago, before sheltering started here in CA, NY state and CA had nearly the same number of cases and deaths. Now there is a wide gulf. I don’t think a few days of sheltering completely explains it.
It may be in part because despite its large population CA is basically a sunbelt state with lots of suburban sprawl. But then how do you account for SF which is the most densely populated city in the country after NYC? In any case the flip side to exponential growth is that a small change in exponent leads to large differences over time.
And I agree with you about China, Presbypoet.
Why is only California doing this antibody study? This should be going on all over. Is it very expensive or in very short supply?