Trump’s chances in New York
[Hat tip: commenter “Karmi.”]
Trump is trapped in New York City for the duration of his show trial there. The Democrats may think they’ve checkmated him – it’s certainly their hope – and perhaps they have. But Trump is nothing if not creative:
“I think we have a good chance of winning here and we’re gonna give it a big plan,” Trump said about New York State. “We’re going to the South Bronx to do a rally.”
“We’re going to be doing a rally at Madison Square Garden, we believe,” Trump added.
The rallies will focus on honoring police, firemen, and teachers. “We’ll be honoring the people that make New York work,” Trump said. “It’ll be very exciting, but we think we have a really good chance of winning.”
I have to say that Trump deserves some sort of award for sustaining his spirit in the face of a degree of persecution that would have felled most people long ago. Whether that translates into having a chance in New York – well, let’s just say it’s a real longshot. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both beat him in that state by about 20 points, getting about 60% of the vote. Trump’s way behind there in polls now – but not anywhere near as far behind as that. For example, in a very recent Siena poll (April 15-17):
“The good news for Biden is that he continues to hold a double-digit lead over Trump in solidly blue New York. The bad news for Biden is he only leads by 10 points, 47-37%, after leading 48-36% in February, in a state where enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans better than two-to-one,” Greenberg said. “While Biden has support from 72% of Democrats, Trump has the support of 81% of Republicans and leads with independents, 46-32%.”
Also notice that Biden’s total is under 50%, and that only 84% of respondents picked either Biden or Trump. I was curious about the rest, and it turns out that 4% said they’d vote for someone else, 7% said they wouldn’t be voting, and 5% haven’t made up their minds yet. Interesting.
Actually, I don’t really think Trump has a chance of winning New York. But wouldn’t it be fabulous if the trial ended up backfiring and he won the state in 2024? Such poetic justice. He’s certainly highly unlikely to get actual justice in his trial there.
One of the markers of Trump’s idiosyncratic way of speaking is his use of the conjegate “but” to connect two phrases that don’t actually contrast with one another. So you get these really wierd constructions like “My favorite color is blue, but I’m going to the store later.”
Indeed! He’s hanging in there better than most would, even taking advantages of the situation to ‘Sell Himself’ to the Democratic party voters in New York. 🙂 Supremes have certainly noticed:
Supreme Court Justices in Trump Case Lean Toward Some Immunity
Nonapod:
He does have an idiosyncratic way of speaking. Translation, maybe: ““It’ll at the very least be very exciting, but we think we also have a really good chance of winning.”
Trump is a fighter. He has the will power (and financial resources) to stand up to his persecutors.
He’s vain, self-absorbed, crude at times, and has little humility. That said, there is no doubt he loves:
1. This country
2. The workers that keep things humming along.
3. Law and order.
4. The military.
5. The competition of free market capitalism.
Contrast that with the rotten policies that Biden has engaged in – inflationary spending, strangling the energy industry, using the DOJ to go after Trump, allowing an open border, pursuing a weak foreign policy posture, being wishy washy in support of Israel, failing to act decisively in arming Ukraine, botching the Afghanistan withdrawal, and much more – why any voter who is sentient would vote for him is a mystery to me. But here we are.
https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1783552140700688781
Again, Trump loves the fight for the fight, the Left never will understand this, all of their efforts boil down to the narrative and the condemned apologizing ( it’s served them well so far, but all things come to an end).
Harvey Weinstein’s rape conviction has been overturned. Trump has a much better argument for overturning his E. Jean Carroll verdicts, but he gets no new trial.
At the very least, the fact that Trump is going to be spending a *lot* of time in New York means that the Biden campaign needs to spend time shoring up what should otherwise be an automatic win for Biden
Democrats just didn’t see this coming…
NYC construction worker goes viral for saying exactly what he thinks of Biden after attending Trump visit: ‘This man represents the majority of America’
It would be delightful if Trump took NY. We can dream.
Trump needs to hammer home all the assaults and the criminal history of the accused in NYC and how many times they have been released. Turn the tables completely and put the woke on defense.
Jon Baker (4:41 pm) said: “Turn the tables completely and put the woke on defense.”
Sounds great to me. However, we need a couple of things . . .
– the media loudspeakers and megaphones, and
– people who are interested enough to pay attention.
It’s a tall order, sez mee.
Without a win the electoral votes are all lost; being close behind the winner is not success.
And I’ll repeat this phrase often until it no longer applies:
We are not represented, and our votes don’t matter.
https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1783639052706513060
Miguel @ 9:04 am, fascinating but no more without a reference to the source. Please, I would love to see a credible source describe identical behavior in other, unindicted and otherwise legally untroubled, members of the party in power.
Miguel @ 3:34 pm, the clear distinction between the two is that Obama’s actions (as described in the tweet) were obviously official acts whereas Trump’s might have been personal in some instances.
Et al. @ numerous times, a Trump win in NY, unlikely as it is, would leave me giggling like Kamala for the rest of my life. As a long suffering resident of rural Western NY, I am encouraged to become politically active for the first time in a while; a Trump win here is possible, if unlikely. Hallelujah! Now, will the GOP invest any campaign effort or money to make it less unlikely?
I think the NY trial is going to hurt Biden. Everytime the MSM reports on them, the ridiculousness of it is shown to swing voters. There is a reason Trump went up after every indictment. He will go up after a conviction as well.
As I wrote here: https://redstate.com/redstate-guest-editorial/2024/04/25/when-a-victory-becomes-a-defeat-biden-and-bragg-are-making-a-mistake-and-it-may-cost-them-bigly-n2173295
J.J. Is wrong about Trump. True, he writes “He’s vain, self-absorbed, crude at times…”. Agreed. But where are the charismatic leaders who aren’t?
He continues: “and [Trump] has little humility.” Ok — when a man of accomplishment is proud, often arrogant, what EXACTLY counts as “humility” that’s good and worthy of a leader?
Trump dishes out praise Big Time to those who don’t attack him personally, yet maybe powerful (cf, Kim, Putin, etc).
This capacity I’ve seen at work plenty of times while watching him in his ceremonial role as President, such as massaging UN leaders into the White House in open meetings (broadcast live on FNC in early 2017, or in his capacity of emceeing Medal of Freedom awards ceremonies where he liberally lauds others as well as the most honorable awardee’s (as seen on C-Span).
He can put a cork on his ego when the occasion demands it, and almost always does. Quite admirably, too.
Trump is by no means the equivocating, temporising, diplomat. And we don’t need one now. We need the opposite in a leader.
So, J.J., perhaps you can cite some examples of Trump failure to heed the occasion demanding humility? Anyone, else, specify?