The Moscow massacre: who are the perpetrators?
Last night there was a horrific massacre at the start of a concert in a large venue in Moscow. The fog of war is still operating, but it appears that at least a hundred people were killed and that the death count may go well beyond that, with many more injured. The attack came from masked gunman who shot concert-goers, ignited a fire in which some were also killed, and sparked a stampede (my guess is that some died that way; according to some reports some exit doors were blocked from the outside).
This sort of m.o. bears the signature of Islamic terrorism, which has struck in Russia before. And quite quickly the terror group ISIS-K claimed responsibility:
Within hours ISIS put out a statement of responsibility through its propaganda outlet, Amaq News Agency.
But such is the state of the world today that the immediate response of many people – and this most definitely includes many commenters on blogs on the right – is to reject the idea, despite its having the force of logic. I’ve seen a lot of insistence that the true culprit was the CIA or in particular the Ukranians; the latter claim is from many people in the anti-Ukraine wing of the right. Of course, there’s also that constant culprit who rules the entire world and is responsible for every ill in it: Israel and/or the Jews as a whole. I will assume there are people who think Trump is behind it, although I doubt many think the perp is Putin – whose reputation rests at least in part on keeping Russia safe from this sort of thing.
ISIS-K was so annoyed at having its moment in the sun challenged that it issued another announcement, with photos:
ISIS has now released an additional Statement in which they claim Responsibility for the Terrorist Attack last night against the Crocus Concert Hall in the Russian Capital of Moscow; while also Posting a Picture of the Attackers only minutes before the Shooting began, in which… pic.twitter.com/zmsH9degmD
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 23, 2024
And of course Putin has tried to implicate Ukrainians in some way:
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Saturday suggested that terrorists who killed at least 133 people in Friday night’s attack at a Moscow concert hall were helped by someone based in Ukraine, without providing evidence.
Ukrainian officials have denied any involvement in the massacre …
Putin said 11 people have been detained in the killings, including the four gunmen. “They tried to hide and moved toward Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them on the Ukrainian side to cross the border,” Putin said in a speech on Russian television Saturday.
“Our military services, our emergency services … our investigators are working on finding out … who gave them transportation, … who gave them weapons,” Putin said…
Ukraine, which has been defending itself from Russia’s full-scale invasion for two years, has repeatedly denied any links to the attackers, with the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry labeling Moscow’s accusations as a Kremlin attempt to mobilize Russian citizens against Ukraine and to try to distance the international community from Kyiv.
In his speech, Putin did not blame any specific terrorist group for the massacre.
This is the sort of situation that is tailor-made for confirmation bias and conspiracy theories fostered by previous and current propaganda.
Another fact pointed out and made much of is the idea that the US warned Putin of a threatened attack (perhaps targeting concerts) and he pooh-poohed it. However, that was two weeks prior to the attack itself, and the warning specifically stated that it was for 48 hours, and that period was certainly over by the time of the attack.
Russia says it has apprehended four of the terrorists involved:
The four suspects were stopped in the Bryansk region of western Russia, “not far from the border with Ukraine,” Russia’s Investigative Committee said. They planned to cross the border into Ukraine and “had contacts” there, state news agency Tass said, citing Russia’s FSB.
How did they connect the suspects to the killings? How did they track them? They were described as “foreign nationals,” but their nationalities have not been specified. And Bryansk is just as close to Belarus as it is to Ukraine – perhaps a bit closer, actually.
I think we’ll never get the full story.
As a Russian, I am firmly convinced that the perp is Putin.
In Russia, those allegations aren’t “conspiracy theories”. They are basic common sense, and have been since the commies’ rise to power. Creating problems in order to emerge as problem solvers is their essential and basic business model.
Particularly, very few people doubt that Putin blew up two apartment buildings in Moscow in 1999 after bags of a military-grade explosive marked “sugar” were found during an “anti-terrorist force” exercise in a similar building in Ryazan. Google or Bing “Ryazan sugar”.
The arrested men have been identified by name, and all are citizens of Tadjikistan.
This being Russia, a false flag operation is certainly possible, but so also is an attack by ISIS-K based in Afghanistan.
There are many who would take advantage of the situation while not necessarily having contributed in any way to the planning and execution of the attack.
As of the pictures posted by ISIS-K, I wouldn’t rule out a scenario in which they were _traded_ to them by the actual organizers (aka FSB), perhaps in exchange for certain favors in the Central Asian region, or simply as a gesture to establish ties with the only force capable of challenging the Taliban. Divide et impera, all that.
Not that I liked complex explanations, but I can’t imagine how the Russian and ISIS-K spheres of interest would intersect otherwise. “K” stands for “Khorasan province”. Khorasan is a part of Iran plus a part of Afghanistan. Moscow is related to it almost as much as it is to Nigeria, where local Islamic madmen operate under an ISIS brand as well.
P.S. There are over a million “citizens of Tajikistan” in Moscow, and another couple million citizens of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, indistinguishable from the former by an untrained eye. They are as omnipresent as Hispanics in Texas and Cali, and occupy the same “ecological niche”.
If the goal was linking the attack to the “Islamic factor”, grabbing three random Tajiks and saying “they did it” was the most natural thing for the FSB to do.
except it doesn’t match isis k tactics, meaning martyrdom attacks, yes tadjikistan was a contested area, 30 years ago, but not now, of course chalk it up to the ‘cycle of violence’ which is a real thing in Russia, see the black widows,
I don’t have a clue. Tajiks are ethnic Persians, but I don’t know if that means anything in this instance.
they are adjacent to Afghanistan, which is the basis of the Taliban emirate, I would have expected Chechens or Syrians, since their grievances are more recent,
you have either cross the Caspian, or go around it, through the Steppes westward, seems like the long way around
I think Chechens did it. Always a safe bet to blame Chechens for the terroristic massacre of Russians. To Chechens, Putin — or any Russian ruler — is the Padishah Emperor, the enemy of their blood.
Attacking western culture gatherings is at least a Islamic terror motive.
Of course at least right away Putin would try and use it as his war Propaganda, but see if the Russians go after a Muslim group or area shortly.
I did after hearing who was to play this concert, group is Picnic and I like their sound, no idea of lyrics as they sing in Russian.
Yes they have 200 years of grievances
More fruits from the Biden-Blinken-Obama axis of international stability destruction.
Neo, thank you for opening up with the first claim by ISIS in and around Afghanistan, and the follow up.
You don’t mention that the US warned Americans to avoid large groups and concerts in Moscow some days ago.
Thus, I think the culprits are nailed down. And in no serious doubt. Except for Biden-Blinken-Obama, who of courses escape naming in the Greater Policy Accomplishment.
The same us govt that is schewing any proper terminology here or abroad
I don’t recall Putin dropping anything serious on anybody after the Beslan massacre. It couldn’t have been that the perps were unknown, or their origin and paymasters.
Anybody know anything about Russian responses then?
Doing the math: vast natural resources + Putin hysteria + Putin’s determination =
Russia Plans 2 New Armies, 14 Divisions
What then follows is easy to extrapolate.
Russkiy Mir
T J:
You write: “You don’t mention that the US warned Americans to avoid large groups and concerts in Moscow some days ago.”
But actually, I did refer to it. Here’s the paragraph that dealt with it; you have the time frame wrong because it wasn’t just a few days earlier. I said they warned Putin, which I think is most relevant to the post – but they also warned Americans, according to the link in the paragraph:
I’m nor Putin, and I don’t run the FSB.
But if the 48 hours passed with no difficulties, I don’t think I’d stand down my overtime guys right away. Might keep some investigations going.
Presuming all is just dan and finedy wouldn’t be my guess in hour forty-nine
I don’t care who did it – too bad it wasn’t a 100,000 Russian troops and/or civilians…or more.
Ukraine should be given the opportunity to strike further into Russia, and make living in European Russia difficult for Russians civilians – like the way Russians have done to Ukrainians since 2022.
ISW – March 23, 2024
• ISW assesses that the Islamic State (IS) is very likely responsible for the Crocus City Hall attack. IS Amaq’s News Agency took responsibility for the attack on the night of March 22, claiming that IS fighters attacked a “large gathering of Christians” on the outskirts of Moscow, “killing and wounding hundreds and causing great destruction…before they [the attackers] withdrew to their bases safely.”
• IS media organs make deceptive or false claims only ”infrequently” and carefully and try to maintain “high credibility” in their communique in order to define clear ideological objectives and maintain fundraising streams. IS propaganda enables the group to fundraise and disseminate its guidance to lower-level commanders and supporters–IS risks discrediting itself within the competitive Salafi-jihadi community by falsely taking credit for very high-profile attacks.
• Allegations that the Crocus City Hall attack was a false flag operation are inconsistent with the evidence ISW has observed from the attack itself correlated with other reports of previous IS external attacks that ISW and CTP have covered since the emergence of the Islamic State, as well as the IS claim pattern following the attack. It is also highly unlikely that IS would have conducted the attack on the orders of Ukrainian special services, which several Russian sources have alleged. Amaq News Agency is IS’s central media arm. IS would not falsely claim an attack that may have been conducted by one Christian state against another (or by the Kremlin against Russia’s own people in some sort of false-flag operation), because the implications of IS conducting an attack at the behest of a predominantly Christian country would damage IS credentials within the Salafi-Jihadi community.
Doing the math: vast natural resources + Putin hysteria + Putin’s determination =
==
He’ll build up his army so it’s just as effective as it was in the Ukraine in February 2022.
==
While we’re at it, annual fuel and mineral exports from Russia have bounced around $250 bn in recent years, about the same as Saudi Arabia’s. Canada’s have been in the range of $160 bn a year.
A decade or two ago it was the American left supporting Russia, and now a majority of the American Right is the group supporting Russia. Some things change over time—others don’t. Russia has made many enemies over the centuries, and the list grew in 2022 when Russia reinvaded Ukraine.
Prior to that reinvasion, Colonel-General Ivashov (RUS Retd) & Mikhail Khodaryonok (RUS military journalist) were issuing warnings about pariah status Russia was about to enter – “pariah of the world community.”
Russia’s DNA & External Expansion modus operandi
Colonel-General Ivashov (RUS Retd) – 1/31/2022 ‘On the Eve of War?’:
Mikhail Khodaryonok (RUS military journalist) – 12/16/2021 Are dreams of Russia’s expansion feasible?
Ukrainians doing or sponsoring a terror attack doesn’t seem like a good idea short of something that would actually cripple Russia. Of course, Putin having anything to do with it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me either, unless he wants some excuse to shift focus from the war in Ukraine, but that also doesn’t make much sense either.
Even if the perpetrators are exactly what they seem, they are still useful to the Russian war effort. Expect “confessions” any day now that they had contacts and safe houses in Ukraine.
Yes but it doesnt make sense there are some crimean tatars who are allied with ukraine
After 20 years of forever war that ended in capitulation one is skeptical of new crusades specially when the regime is persecuting the bravest fighters
The current organs dont even care to name the nature of our adversary instead they are pursuing ergonokon thats what an occupying satrap would do
As phillip short has pointed out some of the stories re putin dont really pan out but he lets them circulate
now General Ivashov who was a veteran of the invasion of czechoslovakia, and notably the three months siege of praha, that took 500,000 warsaw pact troops, did know something about strategy, another who was a veteran of that conflict was future Spetznaz operative and defector, Victor Suvorov nee Rezin,
we weren’t very clear on the Western front,
either, Afghanistan was seen as a way to repay Soviet injuries against us in Vietnam, perhaps for the British their losses in Aden,
when Marshal Ustinov, no relation ventured into Afghanistan, in part to quell the uprising of Ismail Khan, he didn’t know what he was doing either, he was encouraged by the turmoil farther west, with the fall of the Shah, that unleashed other djinns like the Ayatollah, and encouraged the pyrrhic victory of Juhayman, who inspired Bin Laden,
so cui bono
https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/1770680978002051117
*Expect “confessions” any day now that they had contacts and safe houses in Ukraine.*
Yea, there are already videos on Internet showing one guy’s ear cut off and another one being tortured with an old inductor phone’s wires to his genitals.
The Russians post these with pride.
What IS strange is the disconnect between the videos of the massacre clearly showing well-trained murderers and the videos of the captured ones, who look like typical gastarbeiters, of which Russia has plenty.
“I was promised 500,000 rubles” says one. $5500? Seriously?
I’m pretty sure it was Central Asian friends and affiliates of ISIS.
This has some similarity to the 2002 Moscow Theater attack and hostage crisis, perpetrated by Chechens (This “Nord-Ost” attack inspired the opening of the movie “Tenet”)
Putin’s reaction reminds me of when the Spanish prime minister tried to blame Basques for the 2004 Madrid train bombings committed by Islamic terrorists. The election was three days later and he and his party were thrown out of office.
I listened to Ben Lerner’s “To the Atocha Station” on audiobook. The terror attack features at the end of the book, but most of it was about his relationships with two women who didn’t seem to be fully realized characters or that much different. I remember the narrator’s wondering if he ever had an “aesthetic experience.” I sort of understand what he meant, but it was a strange admission in a novel by someone whose whole life has been literature. I also remember the narrator mentioning “Topíca” a lot. I assumed it was a trendy upscale Madrid bar or restaurant or club or boutique. Some time later I realized he was talking about Topeka, Kansas, his home town.
there was a similar instance to atocha back in 1986, at the restaurant at the Torrejon Airbase, as El Descanso, as Saul Montes Bradley investigated they were both the work of the same man, Mustafa Setmarian Nasar, who also had a part in the London train bombing, it had been chalked up to Hezbollah back then,
its not as great a horror as Beslan, which turned out to have more than a few other Caucasus players in the story, from the Ingush and other tribes,
Garry Kasparov, at the WSJ today:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/moscow-attack-dont-believe-the-kremlin-isis-terrorists-civilian-deaths-putin-995046e5?mod=hp_opin_pos_4#cxrecs_s
yes Belarus seems unlikely, maybe if they were headed for the Swedish border,
the ancient enemy of Russia, why not south to Chechnya, but there is that ‘mystery wrapped inside an enigma, inside a riddle’
Motives could be seen with those who were subject in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, the proving grounds of Surovikin among others
“…now a majority of the American Right is the group supporting Russia.”– Karmi
How do you arrive at that statistic? How is “supporting Russia” evidenced?
*If they were headed for the Swedish border,*
Interesting idea, considering Russia does not have land border with Sweden.
much as he misunderstands monotheism, yes follow the banners of marvelous milley who is kind of a penzance character, in the way he rises higher as each intervention, fails more successively, you see how General Flynn perhaps the ablest military intelligence professional we had in a generation, has been driven out of polite society,
this anglo American powerbloc that included the likes of Professor Christopher Andrew
let he be slandered along with miss Lokhova, the whistleblower of the corrupt Sberbank,
while they gave an actual Russian agent Peter Dobbins in the Special Forces, free reign
of Mattis Kelley, and co, little need be added, the former found a nice sinecure at Brookings repeating invocations in Mandarin or Arabic if needs must, and the latter got a gig managing the invasion at Calibur along with other heads of the Camarilla, His successor General Brown, was kept out of the pinnacle of power for a while, thanks to Senator Tuberville,
Some able operators turned company men like Chris Miller, apparently were discouraged from putting forth any challenge to the Delta House follies,
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ex-acting-defense-sec-claims-he-felt-threatened-by-jan-6-panel/ss-BB1kmEYB
Vyborg where the Nordstream pipeline originated was on Finnish territory but under Swedish rule,
Brian E:
I definitely don’t think a majority of the US right supports Russia. However, a smallish but significant and vocal group on the right does support Russia and Putin in its attack on Ukraine, and admires Putin as a nationalist strongman.
Meanwhile, although the left hasn’t abandoned many of the old Soviet principles – ends justify means, anti-Israel propaganda, strong central governmental control, and using the legal system against your opponents – the left does not admire present-day Russia and is against its invasion of Ukraine and does not make excuses for it.
I’m not sure what Karmi was getting at, but perhaps something on that order.
Neo, I would like to know why Karmi thinks that.
Do you consider me pro-Russian?
Something about the “inevitable” nature of Russia’s reconquest of Ukraine, of the existential threat that NATOs vast armies creeping ever so closer to the Russian motherland, the apologetics for Russian frolics in Easter Ukraine in 2014 and siezure of Crimea in 2008, if these aren’t Russian support then they are Russian indifference. Putin welcomes indifference almost as much as open support.
Isolationists on the Right enable Russian aggression.
Own it.
Saw a video clip of Jonathan Karl of ABC asking Marco Rubio “Surely you’re not saying that Biden being President encouraged Putin to attack Ukraine!?”
To which Rubio replied “I’m absolutely saying that!”
I half expected Rubio to add “… and don’t call me ‘Shirley’!”
om, the Ukrainian propagandist, speaks.
They say that the first causality of war is the truth.
I’m interested in what Neo thinks.
Brain E:
If I wanted to fill the coments with Ukrainian propaganda neo would notice and graciously constrain that offense. You on the other hand have been pushing isolationism and Putin adjacent apologetics for years now, and are remarkably obtuse about it.
Own it, Brain E.
Brain E:
Still getting your truth from Tucker and Lt. Col. McGreagor? Will you play the sad trombone for Yanukovyck again?
Brian E. & Neo:
I was shocked to see the lack of Republican support for Ukraine over the past couple years. Have gradually taken a harder line against the GOP because of it.
Example: ‘I will not vote for Russia over Ukraine‘ — meaning that as a Florida NPA voter, the GOP selecting Trump as their candidate has pushed me to a point of not voting for a President this year, unless Trump states CLEARLY that he will be fully supporting Ukraine against Russia. No more of his ridiculous “I will end the war.”
As to Brian E’s earlier question to – ““…now a majority of the American Right is the group supporting Russia.”– Karmi”. The American Right has selected Trump as the GOP candidate, and Trump hasn’t been clear enough on his stance, IMHO.
Here is a Google search w/ some links. how many republicans support russia over ukraine
Here is another brief from another link:
The U.S. Republican schism on Ukraine
That is an interesting article. Voted for Trump twice – so am not a Never-Trumper; however, his leadership during his first term was atrocious (better word?!), but I am not going to explain all the reason’s why…again, here. He was just a terrible leader from the start…which should be obvious to every one.
Brian E.:
What is your stance on Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine? As brief as possible.
Here is my stance: I am 100% behind Ukraine over Russia. Anyone not behind Ukraine in this war is pro-Russian or a supporter of Russia over Ukraine.
That’s probably all I have to say on this Topic…
neo writes, “I definitely don’t think a majority of the US right supports Russia. However, a smallish but significant and vocal group on the right does support Russia and Putin in its attack on Ukraine, and admires Putin as a nationalist strongman.”
I agree it’s not a majority, but the majority of that minority do not support Russia or the attack of Ukraine. I think the vast majority on the right who are grousing about funding for Ukraine are America first’ers and want our money and weapons to stay at home unless needed to defend our borders. I think they would have the same attitude if Ukraine had attacked Russia and we were sending dollars and weapons to Russia.
I do hear some on the right speaking favorably of Putin insomuch that he puts his country first, but that’s as far as the rhetoric goes.
He (Vlad) puts “his country first,” first over, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, parts of Finland, and parts of Poland. For some reason those former subjects of greater Russia want no part of a return to serfdom.
Russia, i.e., the Russian empire used to be a bit larger. “His” country is currently the largest country but needs to be larger. It is the bastardization of “Make Russia Great Again.”
Russyia Mir.
Karmi, the question whether I was pro-Russian was directed to Neo.
Ukraine’s stated goal is a return to the pre-2014 border. What if that isn’t achievable?
As om has said, time will tell.
Brian E:
You mentioned me in 2 or 3 comments—Thusly, I decided to answer that question also, i.e., so you’ll have to wait on Neo’s answer.
Ukraine has the potential to be the best Ally America has ever had, and they are killing massive amounts of Russians (sorry, I forgot you’re pro-Russian). Hey, besides England & Israel, most of our Allies have always wanted us to put our own boots onto their soil in order to help—not so with Ukraine.
Ukraine has helped to bring in other great NATO members also. America owes Ukraine a lot more than we have given so far…
America should tell Russia to get out of all Ukraine (including Crimea) immediately or we will start providing Air Support for Ukraine, and give them better weapons—weapons that can reach all of European Russia. Tell Russia if they want nuclear war, then nuclear war it will be.
Help Ukraine to fight for its Freedom until they win, settle, or lose…THEIR CHOICE.
Brain E now responds with
Except 150 billion dollars later we are status quo ante not to mention were at a crux point of russian national identity the kievan rus is intertwined with russia
“Russia has turned into a fascist state. Anything that hurts this Russia is good” (c) Ilya Novikov, a Russian lawyer, now an émigré.
Was in Spain some decades back chaperoning student trips. Noted that on various subway platforms were people with bags of passports presumably lifted from tourists. I didn’t know enough Spanish to ask what the prices were and how they may have varied by country of origin.
How hard is it to fake identity?
Given the, at least potential, for the cosmopolitan nature of the various ethnic groups and ‘stans in Soviet Russia, how could you tell a genuine Tadjik from a Cossack by…cheedbones? Accent? Brand of shoes? Or a parent’s migration from one to another?
It appears Russian law enforcement lacks the Miranda warning, along with several other procedural issues we see on Law and Order.
I expect guilty pleas, or certainly verdicts, shortly
ee Cervantes:
Otay, whatever
CBS willowy blonde newsbabe, requisite British accent with slight Irish lilt shedding tears of compassion over the treatment of apprehended suspects…
Biden was bribed by gazprom to shut down the pipelines he is the best thing the Russians could have hope for
China has proven itself to be bigger threat
ee Cervantes:
Isolationists will not resist China either, it is how they roll.
Eventually they run out of others to feed to the crocodile. Try some history.
Wurst govt evarr
https://twitter.com/rich_goldberg/status/1772228969959473207
Brain E:
Is this Ukrainian propaganda?
https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/03/25/ukraine-sinks-two-russian-ships-and-russia-sinks-one-n2171879
if fact the owner of the crocus hall, was none other that that azeri pageant promoter agymorov, the one who was part of that failed deal for trump to buy a hotel in Russia,
ISIS claimed credit for the Las Vegas mass shooting.
Right after it happened, I was following along in a forum discussing the shooting. Two posters claimed inside information that the shooter was a leftist. One was from the city, the other was a long time and well known poster with law enforcement ties. Given the long time poster’s history it was my view he was telling the truth (although that doesn’t verify his source in any way). The lack on info in that shooting and FBIs involvement suggest they are hiding something.
LL on March 25, 2024 at 9:06 am said:
“Russia has turned into a fascist state. Anything that hurts this Russia is good” (c) Ilya Novikov, a Russian lawyer, now an émigré.
I don’t see that this hurt the Russian state. It killed some Russian people. It probably allows Putin to leverage more power.
Don.
True.
But strong, competent rulers prevent this sort of thing.
Everybody knows this.