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Home » Trump is declared the winner in New Hampshire …

Trump is declared the winner in New Hampshire …

The New Neo Posted on by

… with an estimated margin of 12% over Haley. That’s quite a bit of room in what amounted to a 2-way race, in a state in which many Democrats who had registered as “undeclared” probably voted in the GOP primary.

Haley isn’t polling very well in her home state of South Carolina, so I think this will be a short primary season with the equivalent of a Republican incumbent (Trump) and a Democrat incumbent (Biden), either or both of whom may somehow end up not being his party’s candidate when November rolls around.

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Trump is declared the winner in New Hampshire … — 63 Comments

  3. Very disappointed. I think Haley has a basis to continue, but I understand the odds are very much against her and the big donors are likely to start closing their wallets

  4. Brit Hume thinks Haley might continue to establish a claim on the VP nomination as G.W.H. Bush did in ’80. He says that the GOP will need someone to appeal outside of the Trump base–which is fairly obvious.

    He also suggests that the any bridge between Trump and Haley has likely been burned. So, the question is, who else could fill that bill? Tim Scott? Noem? Reynolds? (although that bridge seems shaky as well.)
    I would suggest that he look toward Pompeo; but that is no doubt a pipe dream. I don’t know that anyone has mentioned the Governonr of Virginia–although he does not fill any of the, dare I say, gender or race boxes.

    The Democrats are clearly staking their fortunes on abortion, or as they oddly phrase it ‘reproductive justice/rights”. Trump needs someone who can attack their extreme positions with credibility I have heard Dr Ben Carson mentioned; and there could be worse choices simply because that issue will be critical for a large segment of the electorate.

  5. Gimme a Break: Haley Claims That in the South, She Was ‘Teased Every Day for Being Brown. That’s a good way to endear yourself to South Carolina voters. Nikki Haley adjusts what she says according to her audience. Such as her slavery comments. This is one more example. It probably went over well in New England, home of “we’re not like those racists down South” kind of people (Disclaimer: I am a native New Englander). I very much doubt she used “teased every day for being brown” in her campaigns for Governor in South Carolina.

    And for another example of a future politician more concerned with the impression he makes than with being honest with people, here is Barack Obama as a college freshman at Occidental.(Dreams from My Father)

    To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists and punk-rock performance poets.

    From Bob Dylan’s I Shall Be Free:

    Now, the man on the stand he wants my vote

    He’s a-runnin’ for office on the ballot note

    He’s out there preachin’ in front of the steeple

    Tellin’ me he loves all kinds-a people

    (He’s eatin’ bagels

    He’s eatin’ pizza

    He’s eatin’ chitlins

    He’s eatin’ bullshit!)

    Nikki Haley is in “good” company.

    From seeing pictures of Nikki Haley, I’d never call her “brown.” She looks French or Italian. An elementary school classmate of Hungarian ancestry was much browner than Nikki Haley.

  6. Gringo,

    Sure, she’s probably playing it up for attention, but the story is not unreasonable, particularly in South Carolina in the 70s and early 80s.

    Somewhat akin to your classmate, I’m of Polish, Hungarian, and Bulgarian decent. Brown eyes, olive skin (probably just a shade lighter than Nikki’s). I definitely got teased about it in Wisconsin in the 80s.

  7. Oh, they’re much, much more than merely “completely delusional”….

    They’ve hijacked the country and are—oh-so-determinedly—driving it off a cliff, smiling happily—a devilish rictus on their ridiculous faces—as they go….

  8. She will not be POTUS Trump’s VP.
    I’m thinking she’s gone by the weekend.
    YMMV and IBWB*

    (I’ve been wrong before 😉 )

  9. Nobody’s talking about the governor of Arkansas as VP choice for Trump. Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Already quite used to defending ambiguous Trump statements pretty well. Her tweets are mostly positive. Have not seen any comments on VP by her, nor others.

  11. So two states down and the is race over. I imagine all the big money is now going to Trump and it is hard to see how Hayley can afford to carry on. I really like the idea of primaries it gives the voters a better choice. I would love to see them used here in the UK but with changes.
    1. Hold all the primaries on the same day. I assume there is an historical reason for this ongoing process but it appears to exclude the bulk of the country from joining in.
    2. Serious limits on the amount of money that could be spent on campaigns. Think what could be done with the billions spent on US political campaigns. What do these politicans give in return for the vast political donations?

    Trump was as classy as ever in his victory speech. I imagine he needs her out as if he carries on trash talking her like that a lot of voters may be put off. But who knows as he seems to be on a roll.

  12. The Dems will likely use “procedures” to parachute in another candidate. My money is on Michelle Obama.

  13. Haley’s financiers will want her to stay in the race as an alternate to Trump in case Trump is unable to the GOP nominee.

  14. Strange year. Maybe it’ll get stranger with Trump’s VP pick. Who could make it even stranger? Sarah Palin? Dan Quayle? Robert Kennedy? Alan Keyes?

  15. Tim Scott.
    (Or if he’s too busy with his girlfriend, then Richard Grenell.)
    That way, the Democrats and their Media helots can have a field day running rampant over OMB’s incorrigible RACISM, ANTI-SEMITISM, ANTI-GAY, ANTI-TRANS, ANTI-EVERYTHING-DECENT and WHITE-SUPREMACIST world view.

    (And to add insult to injury, OMB will declare that he will ask Thomas Sowell to be “Scholar in Residence” in his cabinet… “O Say Will They HOWL”..!)

    Not that they’ll allow Trump to win or anything…but a boy can dream…

  22. Kate – Re: 70% of Haley voters were not registered Republicans – This canard has been around at least since John McCain won New Hampshire in 2000. It’s really kind of silly. There aren’t enough Republicans to win a general election.

    Republicans have won three presidential elections since Reagan left office in 1989. Two of them were won by eeking out an EC majority while losing the popular vote.

    That’s pretty much exactly what one would expect of a party that values purity over popular appeal.

    Wash, rinse, repeat. We’re about to do it again.

    (The funny thing is that Trump won NH in 2016 with big support from independents and it was a great thing. And people wonder why those of us not in the Trump bubble believe that he is purely instrumental and completely without principles.)

  23. I guess the question MIGHT be, is there a difference between receiving a crossover vote from an Independent and receiving one from a Registered Democrat…?

    (And if so, just what might that difference be?)

  24. Barry Meislin – I don’t believe that registered Democrats are allowed to vote in the NH Republican primary, but independents can.

    And frankly, winning soft Democrats is not a bad thing – it really helps when you’ve only won the popular vote once in 30+ years.

    I don’t think the “Operation Chaos” angle really works here either – Trump is the candidate that Democrats want to run against.

  25. thats why primary pivot is among her advisors,

    haley is maybe pretending to be stupid, if you can’t answer the question of slavery in new hampshire, if you fumble basic history questions, if you want to push further abortion restrictions and don’t really concern yourself about the invasion, at our southern border, well you have no business running,

    in addition you have this streak of ingratitude, she exhibited in her pitiful display with kristen welker, toward the country and the state that welcomed her, at odds with her own memoir,

  26. Re: 70% of Haley voters were not registered Republicans – This canard has been around at least since John McCain won New Hampshire in 2000. It’s really kind of silly. There aren’t enough Republicans to win a general election.

    I wouldn’t say that 70% figure is a “canard” exactly. Granted, it’s CNN that’s making that claim based on their own exit polling. So yeah, CNN could either be lying or exaggerating (although I don’t know why they would be in this case) or simply just in error since exit polls aren’t always perfect. But I’ve seen similar numbers from other sources too.

    At any rate, whether or not that indicates that Haley would have won in the general election and Trump will lose due to the mercurial whims of these independents/middle of the road sort of voters is a bit more difficult to say.

  27. There’s a good chance Biden will be nudged out at or near the convention.

    So this morning I and the better half went down the list of governors that might fit the bill as a replacement for our dementor-in-chief. They all fail because of a lack of name recognition and general obscurity, or like in Newsome’s case, disastrous state policy failures.

    I’m keeping my Dem VP pick from last year and now I’m going with Mike Obama and Gretchen Whitmer.

  28. Bauxite, your comments about winning soft Democrats is wrong. In the several exit interviews of undeclared primary voters I’ve seen, the pattern was universal:
    Why did you vote for Haley? She’s not Trump.
    In a general election between Biden and Haley who would you vote for? Biden, of course.
    Can’t rightly call that winning over.

  29. If Trump feels it’s necessary to nominate a woman for the #2 spot on the ticket, she’ll get Sarah Palin-ed. The only ones I see that could withstand the nastiness that will come their way would be Huckabee Sanders or Gabbard. I think anyone else would wilt under the pressure and decide it’s not worth it.

  30. Sanders could take the heat, but I wonder if she wants to leave Arkansas and go back to Washington just yet.

  32. … those of us not in the Trump bubble ….

    LOL!

    As CC™ pursues The Great Orange Whale to the gates of hell, and even to vote Democrat in 2024, it is good to know he isn’t in the “bubble.”

  34. Reuters exit polling claims

    * 6% of voters usually think of themselves as Democrats, compared to 3% in the party’s 2016 primary.

    * 34% consider themselves moderate or liberal, compared to 29% in the party’s 2016 primary.

    So a large percentage of the people who voted in the NH primary were probably at least somewhat Liberal in their mindset. That suggests to me that they may not have voted for Haley in the general election despite voting for her in this primary.

  35. I don’t think the “Operation Chaos” angle really works here either – Trump is the candidate that Democrats want to run against.

    Bauxite:

    Not necessarily.

    (1) Many Dem voters really, really hate Trump. As one of our commenters (physicsguy?) puts it, they would “crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump.” They don’t need a Rush Limbaugh to lead them into the breach.

    (2) Even reducing Trump’s lead over Haley is a benefit. Frankly, I’m disappointed that Trump only defeated Haley by 11 points. Trump would have looked stronger and more dangerous had he won by 25 points.

  36. One thing is for sure: even if nominee is not Trump, the Democrats will work their base into a frenzy over abortion, BLM, and “white supremacy.” The ticket could be Nikki Haley and Tim Scott and the playbook would not change.

  37. I suspect if Haley got grief from her classmates, it was more likely because of her name not her skin tone. When did Nimratta become Nikki, and why?

    Haley’s father worked at a historically Black college, but her high school was founded as a segregated White academy. It may not have been by the time she went there, but look for that to be brought up if Nikki is on the ticket. Indian on Indian wasn’t pretty with Nikki and Vivek, and it won’t be any easier with Nikki and Kamala.
    ___________

    Finding politicians and campaigns that aren’t “purely instrumental” isn’t easy. Biden? Haley? Harris? Clinton? Obama? Romney? McCain? Kerry? Some politicians may be more than that, say Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, but so far their states back them up in their stands, and neither was able to get very far on the national stage. Politicians try to pick up votes where they can and are hesitant to go after entrenched interests. Their staffs portray them in the best light and bury their weaknesses and misdeeds.
    ___________

    It is not necessarily a good sign for Trump that anti-Trumpers were able to bring Haley up over the 40% mark and give Biden’s write in effort 66% of the Democrat vote. It is true, though, that the total Democrat primary vote was smaller than usual, and that many eligible voters skipped both primaries since everyone knew who would win.

  38. Ackler on January 23, 2024 at 11:45 pm said:

    Gringo,

    Sure, she’s probably playing it up for attention, but the story is not unreasonable, particularly in South Carolina in the 70s and early 80s.

    Somewhat akin to your classmate, I’m of Polish, Hungarian, and Bulgarian decent. Brown eyes, olive skin (probably just a shade lighter than Nikki’s). I definitely got teased about it in Wisconsin in the 80s.

    Are you implying that other males of your own age “teased” ( overty taunted, mocked, ridiculed … ) you for being olive complexioned in the 1980’s?

    And you supposedly did what in retaliation…

    If I truly got the sense of that rather vague reference, then I don’t quite believe it.

    As an aside however, I am not denying that country club class snots might level gibes at others using anything handy at all – including skin tone and eye color – as a way of trying to leverage an advantage in the local pecking order.

    But that is in the context of an unnatural and often overtly status obsessed form of “community” of self-regarding types in the first place.

    If you have ever wondered how superficially harmless people might according to Christian theology be eternally and rightly deprived of the beatific vision, just subject yourself to the appraising eyes of country club matriarchs for a few weekends as a guest golfer. The younger ones may be complimentary, about your physique, your slacks, your stroke, whatever, but the old ones … the guardian hens …

    Talk about the last of the Romanovs …
    If Jesus were only as deserving, knowing, and estimable as they are, they might even deign to take him somewhat seriously.

    We probably do tend to underestimate the subliminal Darwinian malevolence that flows just beneath the surface of many “worldly” types.

  39. Abraxas, Nikki is Haley’s middle name, as shown on her birth certificate, and she has always used it.

  40. “I don’t believe that registered Democrats are allowed to vote in the NH Republican primary, but independents can.”

    Well, believe it or not….
    “Democrats Vote For Haley In Desperate Attempt To Derail Trump”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democrats-vote-haley-desperate-attempt-derail-trump
    Key graf:
    “…CNN noted that while 70 percent of Trump’s voters were registered Republicans, 70 percent of Haley’s voters were registered undeclared voters. She only garnered 27 percent of registered Republican voters, that being the crowd who still pines for the days of Dick Cheney.
    “So who are this mysterious 70 percent of unregistered voters suddenly backing Haley?…”

    (To be sure, this is ZH….)

  41. om,

    That Captain Ahab analogy regarding Trump is brilliant! If you don’t mind, I’m going to steal that. If you do mind, I’m going to steal that.

    It works with both sides; the Never Trump’ers and the Ever Trump’ers.

    Its’ been discussed here before, but it is unbelievable, uncanny, how many people Trump destroys. Look at Fani Willis. She’s this election cycle’s Avenatti. Trump is beyond teflon. It’s like he’s some magic, reflective substance that throws back whatever is thrown at him with twice the force.

    Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering whale; to the last I grapple with thee; from hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee. Sink all coffins and all hearses to one common pool! and since neither can be mine, let me then tow to pieces, while still chasing thee, though tied to thee, thou damned whale!

  42. The difference between Trump in 2016 and Haley in 2024 is that NH independents who voted for Trump didn’t say they were likely to vote for a Democrat in the general election.
    ________

    I didn’t know that about Haley’s middle name being Nikki. I’m still a little doubtful about the bullying story, though. Over the years, the line between feeling like an outsider and being made to feel an outsider can get blurry.

  44. Re: Haley Claims That in the South, She Was ‘Teased Every Day for Being Brown’

    Gringo:

    Yes, I noticed that article and it made my blood boil. No way. A flat racist libel of Southerners. Haley is dead to me. I’ll vote for her over Walking Dead Joe Biden, but that’s it.

    I grew up in the South 1960-1978, I saw “Colored” drinking fountains in 1960. I saw my Catholic high school integrated in 1966 and a white cheerleader going out with a black football player in 1969.

    Sure there were racial tensions, but outright racial taunts became rare to non-existent. I never heard one.

    The South changed. In the mid-70s I worked with a secretary in a small Louisiana town. She was KKK and she came out to me, but quite furtively and she mentioned in the same breath that she preferred our black cleaning lady to our white boss.

    Haley was born in 1972. I can only hear her claim that she faced daily racial taunts throughout the 80s in South Carolina as outright racist pandering. I have no idea what her strategy is. Perhaps she is more stupid than I thought.
    _________________________

    https://pjmedia.com/robert-spencer/2024/01/22/gimme-a-break-haley-claims-that-in-the-south-she-was-teased-every-day-for-being-brown-n4925723

  45. Sure, she’s probably playing it up for attention, but the story is not unreasonable, particularly in South Carolina in the 70s and early 80s.

    Ackler:

    Perhaps that is your impression, but yes, it is unreasonable.

    Haley was born in 1972. Do you have any facts or even anecdotes to support that a brown-skinned child would be taunted daily for being brown-skinned in 80s South Carolina?

  46. Her memoir shows the opposite the people of south carolina welcomed her and this is how she repays them

    Greg kelley has the receipts

    Miss nick jonah (nee chopra) seem to have patterned this notion growing up in canada

  47. huxley, I’m not so sure. I was in Charleston last summer, for a church event which was hosted by an all-black group. Even today, racial divisions exist and tension can be palpable — not everyone, but it’s there. I lived in a small city in Georgia in the 1990s and tensions were definitely still there at that time. “Taunted daily” might be too much to believe, but that differences were observed and felt, I would believe.

    What I will say is that the South today has made, in general, more progress than have some of the northern industrial cities.

  48. I lived in a small city in Georgia in the 1990s and tensions were definitely still there at that time. “Taunted daily” might be too much to believe, but that differences were observed and felt, I would believe.

    Kate:

    Tensions, yes. Daily racist taunts, no. Differences matter.

    In 1978 I left Louisiana and moved to Boston. The tensions, much worse and nastier.

    I am not a Southerner. I’m a Scots-Irish-Mexican mongrel born in Santa Fe. But I came to love Southerners (not that they are at all monolithic) and I feel they keep getting exiled into a garbage can category by people who have no authority whatsoever to pass any such judgment.

  49. Agreed, huxley. I’ve seen people pretend Southerners are stupid because of their accents. That’s stupid. And in my experience, race relations in Milwaukee were far worse than anything I’ve seen in the South.

  50. Kate:

    Bless you. f’m getting a bit misty:
    _______________________________

    And there’s something ’bout the Southland in the springtime
    Where the waters flow with confidence and reason
    Though I miss her when I’m gone
    It won’t ever be too long
    ‘Til i’m home again to spend my favorite season
    When God made me born a Yankee he was teasin’
    There’s no place like home and none more pleasin’
    Than the Southland in the springtime

    –Indigo Girls, “Southland in the Springtime”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvEmYnW9WpM
    _______________________________

    If I can rouse myself from the French and my inertia, I’ll be getting back.

  53. Theres also lynyrd skynyrd sweet home alabama

    There’s a larger context, though I can’t make out the PR from the Kumbaya.
    _________________________________

    Southern rock band Lynyrd Skynyrd wrote their song “Sweet Home Alabama” in response to “Southern Man” and “Alabama” from Young’s 1972 album Harvest.

    Young has said that he is a fan of both “Sweet Home Alabama” and Ronnie Van Zant, the lead vocalist for Lynyrd Skynyrd. “They play like they mean it,” Young said in 1976. “I’m proud to have my name in a song like theirs.”[2] Young has also been known to play “Sweet Home Alabama” in concert occasionally.

    To demonstrate this camaraderie, Van Zant frequently wore a Neil Young Tonight’s the Night T-shirt while performing “Sweet Home Alabama”.[3] Crazy Horse bassist Billy Talbot can often be seen reciprocating by wearing a Jack Daniel’s-styled Lynyrd Skynyrd T-shirt (including at the Live Rust concert).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Man_(song)

  55. Nikki’s slander is far to “woke” for my tastes. The fact a GOP candidate uses her identity to score political points is a sad testament to how too many politicians simply don’t understand the nature of the time we are in.

    It also is a specific attack on the most open to the outsider groups in existence. The “white” people are the most tolerance and accepting of other people by a country mile. To have a foreign background person dunk on them is the last minute to cover up her own miss-step is really irritating.

  56. Then Tyler Durden well deserves to be Harvard’s new Pres.
    (Wait a sec! What color is Durden? What gender? How tall is he? What’s his waistline? What color irises?)

  58. Regarding the discussion around Haley’s sudden realization that she suffered racism.

    1. I agree with those stating racism is worse in the north than the south and that many northerners have an ill formed/immature understanding of race relations in the south. In general I see less segregation in the south than the north.

    2. Weren’t we all teased as kids? As an adult I notice some people really struggled with the natural teasing (and occasional bullying) that is rampant in childhood interactions and seem scarred by it. And many people just learned to roll with it and it seems to have done little, permanent damage.

    Regarding #2, Adam Carolla does a great bit where he talks about white man actually having a real privilege; the privilege of knowing that there are assholes in the world. If someone is a jerk to you, and you are a different race, or have an accent or are female… You may think; “Oh, that person is racist/xenophobic/misogynist.” But if you’re a white dude you know, “Oh, that person is an asshole.”

    There are a lot of Karens (and their male equivalents in the world). If you’re a white guy and a Karen is lecturing you about something… If you’re black, or foreign you may think, “That woman is picking on me because she hates people of my race or ethnicity.” Nah. She lectures everyone.

    Perfect example: I heard Michelle Obama talk about being at a store, I think it was Target, and someone asked her to get something off a shelf for her. This offended Michelle. It bothered her so much she told an interviewer about it years later. In Michelle’s mind it meant that white people (the customer who asked for help) view all black people as workers/servants, and it would never occur to that white person that a black woman like Michelle might be a customer also.

    That same scenario happens to me about once a week, on average. I’m in a store and another customer mistakes me for one of the store’s employees and asks me for help. It never occurred to me this has anything to do with my skin tone or gender, because it doesn’t. But Michelle will carry that Target incident with her to her grave.

  60. 2. Weren’t we all teased as kids?

    Rufus:

    Quite so.

    I thought some more about Haley’s claim. I would sure like to hear some specific examples of her teasing. And really, everyday?

    When I was in fifth grade a new kid from Okinawa appeared in class. I started calling him Okinawa at recess. The other kids liked it, so his nickname got shortened to variations of Oak. Was that kid scarred for life by being teased about being Okinawan?

    Did someone hang an unfortunate nickname on her like Brownie?

    I just have trouble picturing a smart pretty girl from a professional family being teased daily for being brown in the 1980s even in a small Southern town.

    In my childhood the kids who got teased a lot and cruelly were always at the bottom of the status hierarchy for whatever reasons.

  61. Also I wonder what Haley is thinking.

    In 2020 Trump took all the Southern states except Georgia. Does Haley really want to alienate Southerners?

  63. On anti-black problems in the South: Around here, I’ve met a number of families of African extraction moving here as a sort of homecoming. The Southern culture in general is more comfortable, and they feel like they’re coming home.

    On Michelle O. at Target, that story really bothered me at the time and still does. The little white woman who asked Michelle for help didn’t do it because Michelle is black. She asked for help because Michelle is tall. I regularly help short people in stores to reach merchandise from the top shelves. Glad to help.

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