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Open thread 1/20/24 — 43 Comments

  1. I love Ellies. Next on our bucket list is a trip to a game park/lodge in Botswana. As soon as Mrs. Otter’s inheritance comes in (soon), and I’m from recovered from my recent health issues, we’re going. I want to see elephants in the wild.

  2. To follow up on an MO candidacy….I’m not saying that it’s happening, but I do think Barack et al are working to get Slow Joe gone. Here’s a couple more hints of what may be happening. Who replaces Joe is an open question, but I do think it has to be someone who Barack can control for his 4th term.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrat-lawmakers-sound-alarm-over-bidens-campaign-not-real-comfortable

    can view the above in Reader mode in firefox

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/silicon-valley-insiders-are-trying-to-unseat-biden-with-help-from-ai/ar-AA1ncICX

  3. I want to see elephants in the wild.

    IrishOtter49:

    Cool! I’m going to hold you to telling us about it.

    I’m a fan of Hemingway’s “The Green Hills of Africa” based on his experiences in today’s Tanzania — not far from Botswana. I wonder how much Africa has changed since Hemingway wrote about it in 1935.

  4. Boned Looser:

    The Soviet Union no longer exists but imperialist Russia remains. Or haven’t you been awake since 2008?

    Maroon.

  5. huxley, my husband went on business to Tanzania a couple of decades ago. He flew into Nairobi, Kenya, and went by Range Rovers to Arusha, accompanied by armed guards. The guards were for the locals; there had been some unrest. They might as well have been for protection from wildlife. He said it was like being on safari.

  6. There you have it. In a world where Russia is actively invading Europe in a genocidal war of conquest, the Trumpers salivate at destroying NATO. With hundreds of thousands of innocent Ukrainians dead and tens of thousands of Ukrainian children kidnapped, they scream “More, more, more!”

    And then they wonder why Nikki Haley is gaining in popularity.

  7. Super early this Eastern morning (lat Pacific time), I posted on Just The News report on Rasmussen et al research into American socio-political polarisation, average voters versus the urban elites, the 1 percenters.

    The picture that emerges is truly stark, “two different worlds.” We truly are one People siloed into different towers of lifestyle and values.

    Here’s the link to my lengthy extract for your consideration, if you missed it.
    https://www.thenewneo.com/2024/01/19/open-thread-1-19-24/#comment-2719037

  8. I’ve been to Kenya and Tanzania. (1997) Absolutely fabulous. If you can go, just do it.

    Expect things to be a bit dicey by our standards. I was 64 and reasonably able bodied. Being on safari is not for couch potatoes. The days are long and riding in the vehicle over what passes for roads is pretty demanding. Not much walking because it’s not safe outside the vehicle.

    We did arrange a walk in the bush with two armed guards. It was fun and had a flavor of danger, though no lions, rhinos, or hyenas were encountered. Just various grazers and some baboons.

    The wildlife is unbelievable, and if you like birds, it’s a birder’s paradise. A peak experience, IMO.

  9. China is genocidal they got light slaps on the wrist Europe dismantled their energy infrastructure and had us carry their defense obligations

    So after the crippling blow in ukraine they are going to engage in a greater battle based on what?

  10. Fox Business covered the Rasmussen research, polling Deeply Divided America, the Elites versus The People (SEE my post above to yesterday’s day’s open thread).

    But Victor Davis Hanson chimes in early on the topic of why our Elites are AFRAID of The People: They’d rather burn down America than cede power to Trumpist leadership. They project their own motives onto Trump — because their “virtue” is their armour against the facts to the contrary.
    “These people are pathological”, he concludes.

    11m clip here
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53ivxDRGddQ

  11. McConnell, Tillis, Lankford and the other senate rinos are doing their best to eliminate the open border as a potent issue for the Republicans in the 2024 election. So be it. No deal is better than a crappy deal. The left media will try to blame Republicans anyway. The regime could implement all the necessary changes without any legislation since they are from executive orders. It is too bad, because aid to Ukraine and Israel is necessary.

  12. I love elephants! And octopuses! Obviously something about their flexible appendages appeals to me – but also, they both appear to have great curiosity.

  13. Nikki is showing a lot of stress in her face. She should tap into her Indian heritage and go with some asanas, pranayam, and peaceful meditation, followed by the heartfelt announcement she knows is inevitable.

  14. Re: Hemingway’s “The Green Hills of Africa”

    It’s been a long time, so I looked up the book, which I guess we now call “creative non-fiction,” on wiki and discovered Hemingway’s amusing disclaimer I had forgotten:
    _________________________________________

    Unlike many novels, none of the characters or incidents in this book is imaginary. Any one not finding sufficient love interest is at liberty, while reading it, to insert whatever love interest he or she may have at the time. The writer has attempted to write an absolutely true book to see whether the shape of a country and the pattern of a month’s action can, if truly presented, compete with a work of the imagination.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Hills_of_Africa
    _________________________________________

    Hemingway set himself an intriguing challenge. There is no love interest in the plot (as in “Hatari!). Hemingway plays it straight. It is a somewhat dry book as a consequence, though I still find it beautiful for its Hemingway prose.

    The French translation of Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises” is some of the easiest French I’ve read. I had to pick up a fair amount of vocabulary and idioms, some outdated, but I rarely lost track of what was happening in a sentence.

  15. @mkent

    There you have it. In a world where Russia is actively invading Europe in a genocidal war of conquest, the Trumpers salivate at destroying NATO. With hundreds of thousands of innocent Ukrainians dead and tens of thousands of Ukrainian children kidnapped, they scream “More, more, more!”

    And then they wonder why Nikki Haley is gaining in popularity.

    Christ. The strawman for this is disgraceful and shameless.

    For the record mkent: I would probably qualify as a “Trumper” and have crossed swords with you, Bauxite, Brooklyn Boy, and many others. I am not an “Ever Trumper” and in fact my first inclination was Ted Cruz in 2016 and DeSantis now but I am generally supportive of Trump.

    However, I am also noted as being probably one of the leading and most vocal anti-Kremlin and pro-Ukraine hawks on this site, having crossed swords with many people on this issue including Banned Lizard. I am broadly supportive of the existence of NATO even if cautious about how it has factually functioned. I have been absolutely scathing about the Kremlin and its many crimes in places like Ukraine, Georgia, and Syria and have NO intention of stopping, and I quite literally am a moderator on at least one pro-Ukrainian group on Steam.

    I do not regard these things as being in any way mutually exclusive, since for all of the obvious propaganda about Trump being a Putin puppet (and indeed in many ways in spite of what I view as overly cloying and appeasing gestures from Trump) he was not a puppet of the Kremlin nor even very pro-Kremlin or anti—NATO, with his prodding to get NATO to arm up and maintain energy independence or at least mutual dependence on the West while punishing Putin where he stepped over the line. He also supported Ukraine in ways Obama and Biden did not by reopening lethal aid. I will continue aiding the Ukrainians as I can because I believe their cause is Just.

    However I have noted the greater threat of the Western Left using the Russia card to demonize us or seize further emergency powers to persecute and crush us (one reason why even asides from the factual merits of the case I have viewed the likes of Tucker Carlson as fools for giving that kind of ammo to Biden). I have noted the staggering demoralization, under capitalization, and lack of manpower for our forces and those of the West as a whole. And the threat to freedom. Which is why I have ALWAYS opposed going into war in Ukraine in this case. Because war with a despotic great power or at least once great power with WMD stocks up the wazoo should always be done Cautiously at best, and with current leadership (and I use that term loosely) it is FAR too perilous to not just American lives and American interests but American freedom as a whole.

    I don’t know about you but I know of what the left has done to the Jan 6th political prisoners (with relatively little in the way of organized resistance to it from supposed American republicans and conservatives save “Trumpers” like myself and some of the more bellicose Trump adjacent parts of the Right like DeSantis). Why the HELL would I want this to spread further?

    If that makes me “salivating over the destruction of NATO” then so be it. (Of course it doesn’t, but hey).

    Watch your words carefully on this.

    As for Haley, the more I see of her in this the more I am disgusted and disappointed. I believe she has fallen far from her UN performance, and I doubt she will get much more support, especially given her dependence on the Dems in many aspects.

  16. Re: Hemingway, “The Sun Also Rises” in French

    Which is to say, I credit Hemingway’s clear, direct prose for its clear, direct translation into French.

    Not, to be sure, the translator, Maurice-Edgar Coindreau, who drove me crazy many times.

  17. @Banned Lizard

    Senior NATO Official Says There Will Be A Hot War With Russia

    No, he doesn’t. This is Zero Hedge being dishonest motherfuckers in terms of putting a bullshit eyecatching title. But their own evidence doesn’t say that.

    “We have to realise it’s not a given that we are in peace. And that’s why we [Nato forces] are preparing for a conflict with Russia,”Baur declared.”

    In other words, preparing for possible conflict with the Russian Federation because PEACE IS NOT A GIVEN drawing on the ancient wisdom of Si Pacem, Para Bellum. If you wish for peace, PREPARE FOR WAR, because weakness is provocative, especially to human sharks like Putin.

    This does NOT mean that we will be in a hot war with Russia. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PREPARING FOR SOMETHING AND MAKING IT WILL HAPPEN, as the contingency plans about the US and Canada going to war with one another or dealing with a Girl Scout Coup Attempt show. MOREOVER this is precisely what Trump and others have been pushing NATO to prepare for so the US does not have to burden itself so extensively.

    MOREOVER, ZeroHedge is being monstrously dishonest and lying by Omission BY “conveniently” mutilating the quote. But still putting up the snippet.

    So let’s see that quote again but with the full context.

    “We have to realize it’s not a given that we are in peace. And that’s why we are preparing for a conflict with Russia and the terror groups IF IT COMES TO IT , if they attack us.”

    Emphasis in bold for the parts Mr. Durden did not see fit to include. I “wonder” why?

    Do I have to explain why I view this as monumentally uncontroversial and am disgusted by Zero Hedge’s bullshit on this note?

    Does the Soviet Union still exist?

    In the minds of many Kremlin hardliners including possibly the bald psychopath in the Kremlin, it either does or it should be. But don’t take my word for it.

    https://time.com/6299212/a-russian-human-rights-champion-on-why-putins-soviet-propaganda-is-so-dangerous/

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/26326426

    https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12143369/Chechen-warlord-Ramzan-Kadyrov-blasts-Putin-not-brutal.html

    So why would leaders in the West NOT consider the Kremlin’s leadership to be wedded enough to the idea of an expansionist Russia at odds with the West and Neo-Soviet Nostalgia to be a threat?

    Wasn’t that the main purpose of NATO?

    One of them, along with keeping the Germans down and the Americans out.

    So with the nemesis gone,

    Except it’s not gone, as the great Bukhovsky recognized. Had there been a thorough de-Communization after the USSR fell then it might have been. But it didn’t and instead a whole lot of odious goons.

    gin something up with the most corrupt country in human history to keep the NATO gig going?

    What the fuck is this horseshit?

    NATO wasn’t in serious danger of breaking apart before the Ukraine war escalated. Moreover, even if it had been all Putin had to do was REFUSE TO INVADE ONE OF HIS NEIGHBORS WITHOUT ANY KIND OF LEGAL OR MORAL JUSTIFICATION. He couldn’t even do that.

    Moreover, the blather about how Ukraine is “the most corrupt country in human history” doesn’t check out (seriously, have you studied Russia in the 90s, Late Ming and Late Qing China, or Nigeria during the heyday of the Military Coups), but I would view it as frankly irrelevant. KMT Ruled China during the “Nanjing Decade” was FAR FAR More corrupt and dictatorial than any honest interpretation of Ukraine today is.

    That didn’t mean we were just chill about a bunch of Japanese warlords invading the place and destabilizing global politics.

    I fail to see how this is different. Even if Zelenskyy and co were no better than Chiang Kai-Shek, that is not a reason for ignoring aggression by a rival great power on a country you both have sworn to recognize and defend the independence of.

    Word has it that Ukraine will do literally anything for money.

    Ukraine is a corrupt sewer sure, but this from the same idiots that got caught blathering about Muh Petrodollar in terms so embarrassing I had to slap them down, literally got caught lying by omission in this very article, and/or peddling the “bioweapon lab” thing?

    Checking notes on Trump’s view of NATO…

    Trump’s view on NATO was perennially pragmatic. He wanted the Alliance to do things LIKE THIS, to prepare for conflict against likely adversaries and to actually meet its obligations rather than leaning on the US.

    Moreover, his view on Ukraine and Russian aggression there was similarly pragmatic.

    https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/12/04/trump-to-seek-250m-in-new-lethal-aid-to-ukraine/

    Frankly we have spent several decades trying to appease the kakistocracy in the Kremlin in the hopes they would look past their Beijing orientation and side with us. THAT HASN’T HAPPENED and indeed it has made things worse on the whole, as the Georgian allies we sold out in Obama, Clinton, and Biden’s reset shows.

    I do not advocate entering into war in Ukraine as a combatant, declaring war on Russia, or trying to march on Moscow. Such things strike me as both risky and counterproductive.

    However I do think it is high time we focus less time on talking about how we can get out of the way of Russia and its rulers’ ambitions and more time on how they need to get the hell out of the way of us. Especially since the war in Ukraine has not helped their prestige, military preparedness, or long term prognosis.

  18. RE: UFO research, Dr. Shaun Kirkpatrick, and AARO

    Dr. Kirkpatrick wrote an op-ed in Scientific American—out yesterday–in which he reiterated that neither he nor AARO had found “any “credible” evidence of extraterrestrial issues or technology,” as he sneered at and castigated all those who he labeled as “conspiracists,” individuals who thought that there was something to the issue, and a lot of evidence that there were actual UFOs with impossible performance characteristics flying through our skies, hovering over our nuclear ICBM fields, nuclear storage areas, research facilities, and military operations.*

    Charged Kirkpatrick,… “our efforts {to scientifically research the UFO issue} were ultimately overwhelmed by sensational but unsupported claims that ignored contradictory evidence yet captured the attention of policy makers and the public, driving legislative battles and dominating the public narrative.”

    “…The result of this whirlwind of tall tales, fabrication and secondhand or thirdhand retellings of the same, was a social media frenzy and a significant amount of congressional and executive time and energy spent on investigating these so-called claims—as if we didn’t have anything better to do.”

    “… Some members of Congress prefer to opine about aliens to the press rather than get an evidence-based briefing on the matter. Members have a responsibility to exhibit critical thinking skills instead of seeking the spotlight.”

    These conspiratorial tales he said were being spread by a small group of individuals who–horrors of horrors—happened to know and be familiar with one another.

    I note that the U.S. government is vast, with millions of employees, thousands of different locations, and a multitude of agencies—17 of them alone are intelligence agencies—and record depositories—large and small—everywhere—likely thousands or tens of thousands of places to hide information you want kept secret, or in which information can just get deliberately or accidentally mis-catalogued or misfiled, and, thus,“lost,” and that is not even counting relevant information which might be held by corporate America.

    The government warehouse pictured at the end of “Raiders of the Lost Ark” may not be far off with regard to what the actual situation might be with regard to government records. (The Library of Congress, for example, currently has more than 838 miles of shelves filled just with books—that’s not counting what might be in various paper files, recorded on microfiche, and other formats; there is a lot of information out there to search through, and you need to, first, know where to look, or you are lost.)

    Moreover, it has been pointed out that there are two different classification regimes within our government, the usual Title 10 security classification regime and, then, an entirely separate title 50 Energy Department security classification regime, so that in order to do a thorough search for classified programs or documents you need both Title 10 and Title 50 clearances, and top level ones at that.

    Kirkpatrick wrote that as he left AARO he signed off on the first volume of a history of U.S. government involvement with UFOs from 1945 to the present, which found nothing unusual or extraterrestrial.

    Are we to believe that, in the short 18 months since July 2022 when AARO commenced, all sorts of highly cooperative and efficient government agencies have made a herculean effort to dig though their likely miles of shelves and dusty file cabinets full of records, and have found and voluntarily given all of the UFO information they might have had in their various files to AARO?

    I note that AARO was mandated to produce this study, but, among other things, it was also mandated to set up a public website, and after a year of effort and prodding the AARO organization was only barely able stand up a bare-bones format website, which still exists today in this bare-bones format.

    In many of his statements Kirkpatrick always formulaically praises his dedicated, expert, and hard-working staff.

    However, early on, it was reported that his staff consisted of only a couple of employees.

    Just exactly how many employees—with the necessary experience and expertise, plus the requisite Title 10 and Title 50 clearances at the highest level–did and does AARO have to perform the gargantuan task of identifying likely sources of information, then making inquiries–making many thousands of phone calls and in person inquiries, for performing likely thousands of interviews, making possible on site visits–scouring the entirety of our government for records dealing with UFOs, looking for any evidence of actual UFOs, and also possible secret crash retrieval and reverse engineering programs, doing what Kirkpatrick claimed was a “full-scale” investigation?

    Or, does AARO just operate passively, working just based on whatever information various sources might bring to it, it’s findings based only on that received information?

    If there is any fantasy involved here, it is in Dr. Kirkpatrick expecting us to believe that he and AARO—however dedicated, large, and however staffed it is, have managed–in just the short 18 months of AARO’s existence—-to conduct anywhere near a “full scale” and thorough investigation of even the surface level of whatever information the government might hold, and activities it might have undertaken, dealing with the UFO issue.

    In his op-ed Kirkpatrick also said that those who came to him and AARO did not present them with any evidence they judged to be “credible” concerning UFOs, and did not provide anything “credible” which pointed to extraterrestrials or to secret programs.

    A lot depends on what your definition of “credible” is, doesn’t it?

    However, it has been widely said that most witnesses have been very reluctant to approach AARO with their evidence, because they trusted neither Kirkpatrick nor AARO, since they were seen as creatures of the Secrecy faction within DOD and that, instead, they have gone with their testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee. In note that a few witnesses who did go with their information to Dr. Kirkpatrick and AARO have said that they what they said was apparently ignored or dismissed.

    * See https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-i-learned-as-the-u-s-governments-ufo-hunter/

  19. Scientific American ceased being a serious lay publication 20 years ago, it has been political Science American for a long, long, time.

  20. Open Thread Sunday: Military National Defense – Peoples Liberation Army (PLA)


    Chinese Military Corruption & Readiness – The Rocket Force, Purges & PLA Readiness – Perun

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhI_tTEE2ZQ

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:00:46 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:03:10 — PRC Military Modernisation
    00:04:01 — Corruption And Purges
    00:20:15 — The Bloomberg Claims
    00:30:54 — The Silo Thing – And Implications
    00:44:42 — Solid Fuel Issues?
    00:48:25 — Readiness
    00:56:21 — Regional Developments And Strategy
    00:59:38 — Conclusion
    01:01:12 — Channel Update

  21. Gosh, this isn’t terribly convenient…
    “Chinese Scientists Submitted Genetic Sequence of Coronavirus to U.S. Database In 2019, Two Weeks Ahead of China’s Official Disclosure;
    “Another information item supporting “lab leak” origin that was originally deemed as “misinformation”/”a conspiracy theory” back in 2020.”—
    https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/01/chinese-scientists-submitted-genetic-sequence-of-coronavirus-to-u-s-database-in-2019-two-weeks-ahead-of-chinas-official-disclosure/

    No wonder the Davos Set is pushing so hard….heh…
    “Combat COVID. Stop misinformation.”—
    https://www.weforum.org/projects/combat-covid-stop-misinformation/

    Protest too much, doth they?

  22. the sourcing for the Bild story seems dubious, leaked documents based on what,
    whereas we pretended for more than a year that the Nordstream pipeline was some kind of self own by Russia, well that looks silly now, doesn’t it, just like pretending that sanctions on Russia were that much of a devastating blow not really, losing 150,000 soldiers and a dozen staff officers is no doubt a loss, largely it will insure emnity of the Russian people against us,

    as I’ve said I think Putin half enjoys these John Wesley Hardin tales, that say Catherine Belton now at the Post Hollingsworth of the Times and others have spread about him the Ryazan incidents et al, I do some dark amusement when
    the king of Zachistka, search and destroy lecture the IDF on how to do counter insurgency, but in the real world that doesn’t really work, we know from Dubrovka and Beslan, the cost of such efforts to civilians as well as boijivik
    Chechen partisans, what the latter did at Domedovo airport and a dozen points around

    Kennan one of the real Russian experts perhaps Pipes is the other one, both were prickly characters understood Russian ambitions, but Kennan reportedly warned Western sources not to make Containment merely a military exercise in a one hand fits all situation, which is what we did across the third world poorly somewhat effectively in Greece, less so elsewhere, except at rather draconian expense see Guatemala, once upon a time I thought Indonesia, was a model but it was more about ethnic strife,

  23. Kennan one of the real Russian experts

    miguel cervantes:

    It’s fun when you’re Not Into The Whole Brevity Thing.

    –Jeff Bridges, “I’m the Dude. So that’s what you call me.”
    https://youtu.be/7bjtc62Kwcs?t=54

    What do you make of this Golden Oldie:
    ________________________________________

    Obama told me that what he needs isn’t any new grand strategy—“I don’t really even need George Kennan right now”—but, rather, the right strategic partners.

    https://pjmedia.com/richard-fernandez/2014/03/19/the-man-who-didnt-need-kennan-n193289
    ________________________________________

    The right strategic partners [sic] being Iran, and certainly not Israel.

  24. One of the cyber security experts featured in the HBO documentary Kill Chain: The Cyber War on America’s Elections (2020) was J Alex Halderman. As you’d expect from HBO, it leaned left, but the message about our elections was clear. Machine voting systems aren’t just behind an unlocked door – more like no door at all.

    Halderman just appeared as an expert witness in a Georgia courtroom: Election Expert J. Halderman Hacks into Dominion Voting Machine in Court on Friday in front of Judge Amy Totenberg Using Only a Pen to Change Vote Totals
    And yes, that’s Nina’s sister.

    Halderman might want to keep an eye out for SWAT teams.

  25. Distinguished playwright turned director, David Mamet, has a new book out (“Everywhere, oink oink”).

    He reflects on the Jewish experience, while dropping smart name-bonds, with pointed sagacity in this fresh interview.

    Hollywood is dead; indy film is the future. Woke “entertainment” ain’t entertaining. Politics is chaos, and he endorses Trump as a Truth-teller as well as our best President since Lincoln, against “the Party of Death” (Democrats).

    UnHerd in London leads his interview from LA.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APre9AQ4Jo8

  26. Henry Wallace has been getting some “air time” on this blog.
    Here’s a fascinating review of a new biography….
    “Midwest Mystic or Manchurian Candidate?
    “REVIEW: ‘The World That Wasn’t: Henry Wallace and the Fate of the American Century’ by Benn Steil”—
    https://freebeacon.com/democrats/midwest-mystic-or-manchurian-candidate/
    H/T Powerline blog.
    Key phrase:
    ‘…”the most peculiar fellow I ever came in contact with.”…’ (in Truman’s words).

  27. Meanwhile, YOU—yes, YOU!—can witness a historical event…(though I’m not certain if it’s for everyone)…

    “Rare Cicada Swarm to Hit This Spring”—
    https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/illinois-midwest-southeast/2024/01/21/id/1150404/
    Opening grafs:
    ‘For the first time in 221 years, two distinct broods of cicadas — one following a 13-year life cycle and the other following a 17-year life cycle — will emerge simultaneously this spring, NBC News reported.
    ‘Gene Kritsky, an entomologist at Mount St. Joseph University in Cincinnati and the author of “A Tale of Two Broods,” noted that “Thomas Jefferson was president the last time these two broods came out.”
    ‘The rare event, last observed in 1803, will see billions of these insects surfacing across the Midwest and Southeast United States when the soil reaches a relative temperature of 64 degrees Fahrenheit….’

    Yep, RARER than even Halley’s comet (Mark Twain fans, take note….)

  28. Barry Meislin:
    I was in the DC area during a 17-year cicada emergence. They were extremely noisy and everywhere – especially under our feet (crunch-crunch). What you’re heralding sounds like the mother of cicada swarms.

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