Biden’s polls
Just a quick post before I’m out the door —
I think it’s ironic that Biden is lower in the polls in key swing states than Trump is at the moment. Perhaps the reason Biden has fallen is because he did something at least somewhat right for a change: spoke some words of support for Israel. Apparently that’s a no-no with some of his supporters, even though he’s hedged on it and also talked about humanitarian pauses in the fighting and the like.
The thing I don’t quite get is why any Muslims in Michigan who are angry about Biden, or Jew-hating leftists who are angry about Biden, would throw their support to Trump instead. Trump is staunchly pro-Israel, but Trump’s polls have risen and so someone is probably making the switch. Could it be Israel-supporting Democrats who think that Biden has been insufficiently supportive of Israel? Or Democrats who have become aware that Biden’s gifts to the mullahs of Iran might have facilitated Hamas’ massacre? Or has Trump’s travesty kangaroo trial in New York increased Trump’s support still further?
Or is it all meaningless because polls are inaccurate? At any rate, whatever is going on, the dip for Biden might be fleeting. And of course, Biden might not even be the Democrats’ nominee by November of 2024.
The behavior and thought processes of low information voters remains a deep mystery to me. Why now? What’s changed?
I too am unconvinced Biden’s apparent dipping in these recent polls has much to do with Muslims and their Lefty sympathizers suddenly switching to Trump. That just seems like a bridge to far to me. After all, Trump’s been demostratively very supportive of Israel over the years, not to mention the fact that he’s got a Jewish son in law.
I still think Biden will likely be the nominee… unless he loses the Obama camp’s support, he seems to have shaken Axlerod’s faith at any rate. I can’t imagine Joe having much sucess if Obama actually openly speaks out against him, telling him to step down. But I can’t imagine that would happen. But who knows? We live in truly wierd times.
“…And of course, Biden might not even be the Democrats’ nominee by November of 2024.”
And of course Biden is not “Biden”…and never was.
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Speaking of “Biden”, here’s something to compare and contrast!
“The absolution of Hamas;
“How the West’s woke radicals became Hamas’s moral spindoctors.”—
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/11/06/the-absolution-of-hamas/
And speaking of “moral spindoctors”!!…
“Obama’s ‘Blame Everyone’ Comments on the Middle East”—
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/obamas-blame-everyone-comments-on-the-middle-east/
H/T Powerline blog (for both).
The support for Hamas is irrational and only arises from indoctrination from birth to the religion of Islam.
no hes a rotting shell the sienna poll is all over the place, they don’t really let you see their internals, but it does evince some awareness of our current predicament,
as raymond arroyo pointed out on particular program, these student bodies were picked to make exactly this type of ideological basis,
“And of course, Biden might not even be the Democrats’ nominee by November of 2024.”
He won’t be. I continue to stand by my prediction from six months ago. Newsom’s visit to China (albeit to mixed reviews) was another example of introducing him on the world stage.
David Axelrod penned an op ed this weekend strongly suggesting Biden bow out. That is a strong sign the pressure campaign is in full swing. If the GOP does well tomorrow (takes the Virginia legislature, beats Beshear in Kentucky and…in a bit of a stretch….flips a chamber in New Jersey)…that will seal the deal.
The Newsom switcheroo is coming. I still think early December, after his debate with DeSantis. But whenever it happens…it’s coming
Related:
Gadi Taub on the hard realities facing Israel following the barbarism and butchery of October 7.
“We Will Defend Ourselves;
“A letter from Tel Aviv”—
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/we-will-defend-ourselves
Key graf (RTWT):
“…The horrors of Oct. 7 reminded us that the existential condition of Zionism is not a given and cannot be taken for granted. It is something that we willed and carved out of history against all odds. It is something we must constantly protect and uphold, because it can be lost….”
The pro-Hamas/pro-Palestinian types in Michigan are probably threatening to not vote (or vote for a third party candidate like RFK Jr). They certainly would not vote for Trump. In a swing state, a significant number of one party’s base not voting for its nominee could deliver the state to the other side.
Rightly or wrongly (and I think wrongly), the 70% of Jewish voters wedded to the Democratic Party are generally satisfied with the “support” (such as it is) that Biden and his sad-sack flunky Blinken have given Israel in this crisis. It is unlikely that Biden could do something so blatantly anti-Israel as to cause Jewish Democrats not to vote for him (or more importantly stop contributing $), much less vote for a Republican (horrors!).
I agree that Newsom might well be the perfect candidate for the Democrats in 2024.
Having practically destroyed the State of California he would be UNIQUELY QUALIFIED to destroy the USA, were he to be elected next November.
Yes, “he might well be the perfect candidate”; however, Joe Biden it will be…for the same reasons he was “elected” in 2020 and for the same reason he is STILL in the WH.
(Nonetheless, no matter who the Democratic Party candidate will be, he or she—or they—MUST BE elected so as to continue that Party’s massive, multidimensional, criminal coverup and to enable the Democrats to continue their sacred mission to destroy the country. “MUST BE elected”; and therefore “WILL BE elected.)
On Michigan, djf, that’s a good thought, on their voting for RFK Jr.
Also on Michigan, has anyone seen news of a suspect in the stabbing death of the synagogue president in Tlaib’s district?
On national polls one year ahead of the election, or even two days ahead of the election, I don’t believe them. State by state polls may be somewhat more reliable, but only somewhat, and not this early.
Until the first few primaries/caucus I’m not believing any of it. All Trump seems to care about now is who will kiss his ass and continue to do so. I certainly won’t vote for him in the primary, general I guess I would have to hold my nose.
I don’t think there is really much recent change in the New York Times polls. Most polls that there have been in the swing states have shown Trump to be ahead by a margin that is consistent with his small lead in the national polls. I think the reason for Biden’s poor performance in the polls is his poor performance in doing his job.
There are not enough Palestinian supporters in most of the swing states to move the needle one way or the other. Nothing that happened recently explains the 11 point lead Trump has in Nevada. The big change since 2020 is the erosion of Biden’s support among young black and Hispanic working class voters. I think this is due to the the poor performance of the economy combined with the image of a president who is obviously weak and feeble.
Of course the election is still a year away and much can and will change. But I think it is clear that Trump can win this election and it is more likely than not that events will work against Biden rather than for him.
Barry Meislin:
“I agree that Newsom might well be the perfect candidate for the Democrats in 2024. Having practically destroyed the State of California he would be UNIQUELY QUALIFIED to destroy the USA, were he to be elected next November.”
Sure seems like the uniparty have decided that the USA is done for, so what they’re doing amounts to a smash-and-grab on a continent-wide scale, to get whatever they can, while they can, before the peasants revolt and the rope is being readied for the lamp posts.
Other than wishful thinking, upon what factual basis is there to think that the 2024 Presidential election will not be a repeat of 2020 with the Democrat Party candidate getting even more votes than did Obama?
Geoffrey Britain (5:46 pm) asks, “upon what factual basis is there to think that the 2024 Presidential election will not be a repeat of 2020 with the Democrat Party candidate getting even more votes than did Obama?”
The Republican side has been taking concrete steps to ensure that there will be no electoral cheating or baseless Democrat smears that the latter will broadcast far and wide courtesy of the mainstream media. /SARCASM /SARCASM /SARCASM
NOT! NOT! NOT!
Frankly, I’m not too terribly sure what they can do, but has anyone here sniffed even a teeny whiff of what they *are* doing in this regard?
Sometimes you just need a novel reason to make the switch?
they might vote for cornel west, he signed on to that stupid manifesto
hundreds of polls. Thousands of questions, thousands of answers. Polls provide many jobs.
Where does all this work happen? Who answers more than one poll?
And then someones poll numbers go down 1 or 2 and then theres monotonous analyzing as to why.
And they do this every week. They talk about polls.
Best course I ever took was Probability and Statistics.
I think its 90% BS
and 83% of statistics are made up on the spot.
or is it 74?
The real question is how will Donald Trump step in, say something incredibly and unnecessarily narcissistic and stupid and turn people off mere weeks from the polls. thats the true question here.
it seems a little large a margin to paper over in a ballot flood, but you can’t under estimate marc elias deviousness,
Neo, is your 7:18 commenter AI?
Also on Michigan, has anyone seen news of a suspect in the stabbing death of the synagogue president in Tlaib’s district?
I’ve been tracking the story, and there’s been nothing in the last two weeks, despite police saying at that time that they had persons of interest, and asserting no evidence of an anti-Semitic motive. While it may not have been that, the assertion seems odd when they have no suspect or alternative motive (that they have said anything about). It almost seems that they wanted the story to disappear.
This echoes my feelings about it:
https://www.clevelandjewishnews.com/jns/jew-hatred-somehow-only-theory-detroit-police-rule-out-in-murder-probe/article_b52c5375-d599-5e07-99d4-bb6918969a73.html
I also noticed that there is a movement to delete her Wiki page, on the basis that since the police “ruled out” a hate crime, she’s not a notable person. Of course they haven’t ruled out anything, but they have succeeded in putting the story into purgatory.
Thanks, Jimmy. I don’t see how they can rule out a hate crime without any suspects. The article says only that a large Israeli flag in her home was undamaged, but she certainly was severely damaged.
ha, if the polls are accurate, it would seem they could only commit fraud at the 2016 level, when the green candidate called for a recount, and well she embarassed herself when the chain of custody was faulty on several batches of ballots,
Guess I could have searched for this myself. A fairly comprehensive article here. Police are keeping details quiet for investigative reasons.
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2023/11/04/everything-we-know-about-the-samantha-woll-murder-case-in-detroit/
If the nominees for president are Trump and Bidet, with Kennedy running as an independent, who will “lose” more votes, Trump or Bidet?
I can argue either way on this one; I really do not know who will benefit as a result of having Kennedy in the mix.
Any thoughts??
Bill K (7:45 pm) asks: “Neo, is your 7:18 commenter AI?”
I seriously doubt it. AI would use occasional capital letters and periods according to algorithm. This 7:18 dude’s kinda unique.
I expect 2024 to be as bizarre as 1968. Anything can happen.
That said … mostly I don’t expect Biden to be a candidate.
Kate: Police are keeping details quiet for investigative reasons.
Yes, maybe it’s just that, but what I find a bit strange is that they’ve been quiet for two weeks, after suggesting they were close to a break in the case.
miguel cervantes is not AI.
He knows a fair amount of stuff and enjoys a laconic, cryptic style.
Current ChatGPT is careful and wordy with much legalese boilerplate to avoid being pinned down on anything.
‘Reparations’.
That right there tells me RFK Jr. would take more votes from Biden than Trump.
“The big change since 2020 is the erosion of Biden’s support among young black and Hispanic working class voters. I think this is due to the the poor performance of the economy,”
Currently living at Trump’s hotel in Las Vegas. Wear a lot of Trump (hotel) gear. Get compliments constantly around town about it, including from a lot of esp lacks, but also Hispanics. I really do think that it is a class thing. Working class, white, black, brown, and even yellow, have been screwed by Biden and the Dems, and many of them know it.
miguel cervantes is not AI.
He knows a fair amount of stuff and enjoys a laconic, cryptic style.
He’s one of my faves and reminds me of…. another commenter here whose handle I’m not able to recall right now, who had a similar pattern of dense information, only commas, no capitals, but wrote longer comments. But this other guy I’m thinking of disappeared and then I started seeing miguel cervantes, and I’ve wondered if he just switched names and adjusted his style a bit.
I get a lot of information from miguel cervantes’s posts, but if they’re long, the lack of capitals and punctuation make them hard to read, so I often skip longer ones.
Guilty as charged I guess, I started used miguel on another blog, that went painful ‘woke’ when the proprietor turned to German philosophy, that stuff is worse than absinthe,
so in the last honest contest, there were four candidates, orange man, the red queen (hillary) the left party, and the self indulgent independent, johnson was it, they didn’t get very far,
Using Grammarly on my other project is less responsive than you think, to typos or grammatical era, so I am best to type sections on Word, and then transfer them by bloc
Using Grammarly on my other project is less responsive than you think, to typos or grammatical era, so I am best to type sections on Word, and then transfer them by bloc
I’m curious to see how Microsoft’s new AI assistant (called “Copilot”) will work in Word. So far it seems like it is only available for Office 365 subscribers. And it doesn’t yet appear to have a grammer correction feature, just a full rewrite/transform option of your text.
OK. So we have smoked miguel cervantes out into the pen… And have found that his machine does have a “shift” key (or button, or whatever).
re. 2016: I would have thought that by now the Trumpers (and, reluctantly, the conservatives) would have erected a statue or two to honor Jill Stein for her contribution to the DJT victory. For no other reason, just to see who came forth to tear it down. There is little doubt that had she not been on the ballot in key states those voters would have pulled the lever for The Hildabeast.
As to working class voters choices, they are the ones who must consistently purchase motor fuel. Public transportation frequently does not go to places where real work occurs (the jobs where you have to bathe after work, not before); and for all, everything we have in our lives at some point travels on a fossil-fueled device.
Damn! it’s “…. into the OPEN.”
JoM nic, miggy? Different, wasn’t it?
If someone doesn’t comment in standard, intelligible English, I don’t bother to read their comments. Ditto for prolix, over-punctuated, and copy-pasted “comments” much longer than Neo’s posts.
since they instituted mass unverifiable balloting, it is very hard to ascertain how legit an election is. they threw out the verification rules during covid and of course with the the three witches, sorry I have to go scottish play , re whitmer and co, they can pull off the scam miss stein was trying to perpetrated, if we have four candidates, including west and kennedy we will see how this works. is that clear enough for you,
These polls are meaningless not only because there’s a chance Biden won’t be the nominee, but also that Trump will be in jail and Haley will be the nominee.
fertcarden:
DeSantis is next after Trump, not Haley.
@ miguel > my biggest problem is figuring out who you are replying to with some comments. Otherwise, decoding your text is kind of like doing crosswords or sudoku puzzles.