Home » Open thread 3/14/23

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Open thread 3/14/23 — 39 Comments

  1. I have seen the Madonna that is in Burges, the one the movie “Monuments Men” is about. Just beautiful. It is truly amazing that anyone can visualize and then cut out of stone something so magnificent. With the unfinished pieces you can still see what he could accomplish.

  2. A second post. I truly thought that the Stock Market would tank today, what with the other banks troubles, especially Credit Suisse.

  3. “I truly thought that the Stock Market would tank today,”

    1. They have literally changed the rules of the stock market, at least in the U.S., to prevent or at least discourage market downturns.

    2. The market is so disconnected from economic reality that it is impossible to apply any logic to how it behaves. I would not be surprised if a third to a half of market value today is imaginary. How can there be any market rationality in that situation?

    Mike

  4. 2. The market is so disconnected from economic reality that it is impossible to apply any logic to how it behaves. I would not be surprised if a third to a half of market value today is imaginary. How can there be any market rationality in that situation?
    ==
    The median trailing p/e ratio of the S & P 500 as measured over the last 50 years has been about 18. (In previous eras, the p/e ratios were lower). It’s been around 20 in recent days, so mildly inflated. Again, the trailing p/e ratio makes use of the year’s past earnings for the denominator.

  5. “The median trailing p/e ratio“

    And Silicon Valley Bank was perfectly fine two weeks ago.

    Mike

  6. And Silicon Valley Bank was perfectly fine two weeks ago.

    Irrelevant to my point, but you be you.

  7. SVB has nothing in common with most regional banks. Using it as an important signal for the overall market is silly. Using it as a signal for most banks is silly.

    Right now, the market is all about the Fed. The combination of Dem spending, Dem regulation (lockdowns, supply chain idiocy in California re: trucks and port regs, mask and shot mandates) and the stupidity of the Fed claiming that employment was in trouble despite ten million more job openings than available workers has created a serious inflation problem. The Fed now has to kill the inflation dragon. Biden isn’t helping. The market is going to suffer. But it will sort it all out and grow again (provided that socialist idiots like AOC, Warren, Sanders and Maxine Waters in federal and state governments aren’t allowed to really do what they want).

    Predictions that the market is going to re-trace the Oct lows are all about Fed tightening. If it happens, take advantage. It will be an opportunity almost as good as the last week of March in 2020.

  8. BTW — I was reminded of something by these tweets:

    a lefty named Daniela Nadj put up this idiocy: “Leftwing people don’t annihilate disabled people or burn books. They also typically don’t build concentration camps.”

    Peter Hitchens responded accurately, but sorta missed the main point: “Nobody seems to know one crucial fact. The Nazis were very Left-wing. They hated Christianity and deliberately set children against their parents. They imposed penal taxes on the middle class and attracted Communists to their ranks.”

    1. Lefties do in fact do everything that Nadj claimed they don’t.

    2. More importantly, and this is CRITICAL, small government libertarian/conservates never have.

    Nadj is typical of a lot of the Democrat-voting types like Neo’s liberal friends in that she has bought into this crazy notion that the GOP in the US is a group of Nazis who want to burn books, harm others and build gulags.

    This is vile. It’s vicious. It’s nasty. It’s the insane, moral self-promotion of people who slander others in order to feel good about themselves. It’s evil.

    Like believing that cops in America are roaming the streets looking to kill black kids. There is something fundamentally sick about people who chose to believe that.

  9. “Irrelevant to my point, but you be you.”

    No, it’s directly to your point, which is reliance on Wall Street standards to tell us how well Wall Street is doing. I prefer to keep things more basic.

    I would go back 20 years but 2003 could arguably be too close to the impact of the 9/11 attacks in 2001. So, let’s use 2004 instead. The Dow Jones Industrial Average for all of 2004 was 10,315 with a highpoint of around 10,857.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average stands today at 31,906, an increase of around 300%.

    300% in 19 years. And those 19 years include two global financial crises, so you could really say 300% in 17 years, or maybe 16. 300%.

    I don’t see a 300% increase over 19 years ANYWHERE in the real economy. Not wages. Not productivity. Not workforce growth. Not production. Not innovation. NOWHERE. I’m just a shmuck but I don’t see anything in the real economy over the last 19 years which justifies a 300% increase in stock value.

    Maybe I’m wrong. I certainly hope I am. But considering the utter and continued failure of our financial system to accurately anticipate crises despite all of the fancy formulas in use, I’m still worried.

    Mike

  10. Mie Bunge, I agree with you about the stock market.

    The market as it is now organized, can be manipulated by big money. Why? Because of computer trading programs. The computer algorithms detect buying and selling pressures very quickly. It doesn’t take much money to get the market to rally if big money buys broad market-based ETFs. When the upturn is confirmed by technicians, they begin buying as well. Then the uninformed public jumps in. Same happens on the downside.

    The bias has been Upward because of the low interest rate environment of the last 21 years. You want a decent return? You have to go to the stock market to get it.

    Money from all over the world has flowed into the market for that reason. Banks in Europe have on occasion been charging their depositors to hold their funds. Wow! Low and/or negativize interest rates have warped everything.

  11. Its called a market, Bunge. The other things aren’t.

    Are you trading and speculating in “productivity?”

  12. Apparently the incident was over international water. The Russian planes had dumped fuel on the drone in an attempt to disable it, and then deliberately clipped it. Their fault, or do international waters and air space not mean anything any more?

  13. Bunge:

    One of those nuclear warheads has your name on it. Dig you bunker deeper.

    Proxy, moxie, and cottontail are calling you.

    It couldn’t be Vlad’s proxies war with the west and all its nuclear weapons could it?

  14. MBunge @ 1;48 PM;

    The PERCENT increase to 31,906 from 10,315 is about a 209 % increase.
    Tripling a value produces a 200% increase.

    The tripling of the DJIA over the time period you cite is not inflation adjusted.
    If inflation adjusted, the increase of the DJIA is about 100% (i.e, about doubled).

    The hidden tax of inflation is just that, a tax.

    Just to provide an example: at a 3% annual rate of inflation over a 20 year period, you would need about $ 1.80 at the end of the 20 year period to purchase what about $ 1.00 would have purchased at the beginning of the period.

    The inflation we are witnessing today is a direct result of FED actions in which they bought massive amounts (about $ 2 TRILLION) of US Govt securities, and by doing so injected that $$$ into the economy.

    Many are unaware that the FED really has no money at all to buy anything; they literally create money out of thin air with a keystroke. All their money are ledger entries.

    Things will go along swimmingly, until they don’t.
    What can’t continue can’t.

  15. No, it’s directly to your point, which is reliance on Wall Street standards to tell us how well Wall Street is doing. I prefer to keep things more basic.
    ==
    Bunge, the numerator is the price, the denominator is the earnings over the last 12 months for an index composed of 500 stocks. Over time, this metric bounces around a set point. It’s an indicator of the degree to which prices may be inflated. Its not a measure of ‘how Wall Street is doing”.

  16. JohnTyler beat me to it.
    Using 10,315 to 31,906 change of 209%
    Using 10,857 to 31,906 change of 194%
    Happy Pi Day
    3.14159265359……………

  17. At a paltry 7% a year compounded; a portfolio will double in roughly 10 years. That means it will quadruple in 20 years.

    If your portfolio has only trebled in 19 years, you are sucking bigly as an investor. Trebling in 19 years isn’t evidence of a market too high. It’s evidence of a market that is underperforming historical returns.

    [note — he chose the DIA and that’s a poor choice for the overall market, but the point remains. The return he considers outrageous is actually poor.]

  18. It’s Biden Gaffe Time again: Brandon’s latest episode of foot-in-mouth disease is a remark he made yesterday that Jimmy Carter has asked him to deliver the eulogy when Carter dies: “I spent time with Jimmy Carter and it’s finally caught up with him, but they found a way to keep him going for a lot longer than they anticipated because they found a breakthrough,” Biden told the audience of some 40 guests at a Dem fundraiser in California.

    https://nypost.com/2023/03/14/biden-accidentally-reveals-jimmy-carter-asked-him-to-deliver-his-eulogy/

    Comments elsewhere on the Web: people hoping that Carter lives long enough to deliver Brandon’s eulogy.

  19. and how many downturns in that interval, at least two in 2007-2008 and 2020-21 (although the last was rather short),

  20. The Biden admin. says that taxpayers won’t pay the burden of bailing out SVB depositors because they will be paid out of FDIC capital.

    Today I heard that the FDIC’s capital is in the same underwater long maturity Treasuries that caused some of SVB’s problems in the first place. I guess the FDIC won’t be holding their portfolio to maturity either.

  21. i finally got a snippet of umbrellas of cherbourg, and the theme, by legrand, which I swear I had heard in other subsequent venues

  22. The FDIC money to cover deposits comes from the “insurance premiums” paid by the member banks. That is a cost of doing business for a bank and it is part of the overhead baked into the fees the banks charge their customers. In reality, the money disbursed is customer (taxpayer) money collected by the banks and passed through to FDIC.

    Its like electric cars being environmentally friendly, and they might be so long as you do not consider the ultimate source of the electricity they use. Even if its solar panels, you need to consider the development of the materials of the panels. A lot of fossil-fuel is burned there.

    FDIC is another hidden-ball-trick.

  23. “And Silicon Valley Bank was perfectly fine two weeks ago.”

    APPEARED perfectly fine you mean.
    I worked for a company that APPEARED perfectly fine for months until suddenly all hell broke loose and everything collapsed within a few days. CEO had emptied out the bank accounts and the division managers managed to keep things going by selling off more and more assets and cover one hole with another.

  24. i finally got a snippet of umbrellas of cherbourg, and the theme, by legrand, which I swear I had heard in other subsequent venues

    miguel cervanes;

    If we’re talking about “I Will Wait for You,” I had that impression too. It wasn’t in “Dr. Zhivago,” as I thought, but Frank Sinatra and Connie Francis covered it. Here’s Connie’s version, which gets the song’s tender vulnerability as opposed to Sinatra’s swagger:
    _________________________________

    –Connie Francis, “I Will Wait For You”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mi57d50pCUw
    _________________________________

    People have largely forgotten Connie. I haven’t.

    For anyone interested in the French version of a big 60s Hollywood film, “The Umbrellas of Cherbourg” is the go-to.
    _________________________________

    –“I Will Wait for You”, “The Umbrellas of Cherbourg”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaY6iWmQXS4
    _________________________________

    Catherine Deneuve!

  25. Sarah Hoyt has a guest post up on the SVB scandal by a long-time commenter there who gets into the deep weeds. I discovered a couple of things I haven’t seen elsewhere (although following links from Neo’s threads covers a lot of territory), and made this observation:

    https://accordingtohoyt.com/2023/03/14/svb-a-guest-post-by-francis-turner/#comment-908164
    AesopFan says:March 15, 2023 at 4:51 am
    Francis: “Lots of small businesses applied for [pandemic] grants and got them and banked much of the money because they didn’t need to spend it all at the time. …It looks like SVB basically got about 5% of all US Wuflu subsidy spending deposited in it in 2020 and 2021.”

    So: the money that Biden has promised that the depositors will somehow get back from FDIC (which we know means taxpayers will provide it through one means or another) is money that they got from the taxpayers in the first place.

    WHY? — instead of Biden Inc. just saying, “If you didn’t need it when we gave it to you, you don’t get it back now.”

    Of course we all know the answer: many SVB depositors are their buddies, even if they are evil rich capitalists who aren’t paying their fair share.
    And never will.

    @ Almuric [a few comments back at Hoyt’s]: “Gavin Newsom failed to disclose personal ties including his bank accounts at Silicon Valley Bank while lobbying for their bailout.”

  26. The Daily Mail post from physicsguy also mentions the pandemic money.
    And SVB is not the poster child for “got woke, went broke”.

    REVEALED: Only ONE member of failed SVB’s board had a career in investment banking – and the rest were Obama, Clinton mega-donors who ‘grieved’ when Trump won including one who went to Shinto shrine ‘to pray’
    Tom King, 63, was the only member of the Silicon Valley Bank board who had experience in investment banking
    The others were major Obama and Clinton mega-donors, including one who cried when Trump won in 2016
    The board is now being investigated for its failure to act ahead of the bank’s collapse, as some argue it was too focused on being woke

    When the bank fell on Friday, it touted that its board included ‘1 black,’ ‘1 LGBTQ+’ member and ‘2 veterans.’ It also noted that its board is 45 percent women.

    But only one board member is under the age of 60 — while the oldest is 78.

    The bank finally named a qualified board member in September 2022, with the appointment of Tom King.

    Kay Matthews, the chair of the board of directors, said at the time: ‘Tom’s proven leadership within complex global financial services firms makes him well suited to join SVB’s board as the company continues to grow.

    ‘Tom’s expansive knowledge of the financial services industry will contribute to SVB’s ability to execute its strategy and deliver long-term value for stakeholders,’ she promised.

    Meanwhile, Becker said in a statement that King has ‘leveraged his global banking and corporate finance expertise, regulatory knowledge and keen relationship-building talents to build and transform businesses.

    ‘His strategic thinking and values-led leadership will be an asset to our company and our clients.’

    The company also announced at the time it had $214billion in assets and more than 7,700 employees globally.

    It now remains unclear why the board failed to act as SVB was making risky investments.

    I can’t believe they wrote that with a straight face.

    Executives at the company began depositing much of its excess funds accrued during the COVID pandemic in higher-yielding, long term bonds, along with $80billion in 10-year mortgage-backed securities that pay out 1.5percent rather than the short-term Treasury Department securities that pay out only 0.25percent beginning in 2021.

    That left the bank with a deposit base heavily skewed toward technology firms with huge accounts, over the $250,000 insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

    By the end of 2022, a vast majority of the bank’s deposits, $157billion, were held in just over 37,000 accounts that were over the FDIC’s deposit-insurance gap.

    It then continued business as usual, borrowing short-term from depositors and lending long-term without any interest-rates — even as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that higher interest rates were coming.

    As customers started to ask for their money back as the economy revamped, SVB had to sell $21million worth of its underwater long-term assets with an average interest rate around 1.8percent.

    That meant that the bank lost $1.8billion on sales, leaving executives frantically trying to raise more than $2billion to fill the hole, which it was unable to do.

  27. And could it be?? Is it possible??
    YES IT IS! we have a real, genuine, honest-to-goodness cat fight! (Probably the most honest thing the Democrats have done over the past decade plus…)
    ‘ Kamala Harris Reportedly Snubbing Elizabeth Warren Over Recent Comments Questioning Her as VP in 2024;
    ‘ “Warren has called Harris twice to apologize for her comments, according to CNN, but the vice president has not returned her calls.” ‘—
    https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/03/kamala-harris-reportedly-snubbing-elizabeth-warren-over-recent-comments-questioning-her-as-vp-in-2024/

    My word! Cackles vs. Fauxcahontas!
    It’s almost…Nietzschean!
    https://spectator.org/nietzsche-in-the-shadows/

    + Bonus:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUJCVgcGLCQ

  28. AF, I suppose it’s entirely possible that “Biden” intends to crash the country beyond repair ASAP, now that the Jan. 6 cat’s out of the bag….

  29. https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/03/the-stanford-law-school-culture-not-the-diversity-dean-is-the-problem-but-i-repeat-myself/

    One thing that gets you is that you have these intensely selective law schools and the people they admit turn out to be head cases. And almost no one on the faculty objects. The simplest way to repair the problem is for Stanford’s board to close the law school and discharge its employees. Which, of course, they will never do.

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