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Open thread 6/4/22 — 35 Comments

  1. Some of us have long suspected a therapeutic effect. Now we have it confirmed, hot off the presses of the Daily Mail:

    “Stayin’ ALERT! Listening to ‘groovy’ music like ABBA or the Bee Gees can boost brain performance, study reveals
    *Listening to ‘groovy’ music can boost brain performance for those familiar with it
    *Scientists from the University of Tsukuba found it improved ‘executive function’
    *This is is a set of mental skills that enable us to focus attention and remember
    *Results were noted only in participants who felt clearheaded after listening”

  2. One of the more fun physics courses I took was statistical mechanics.

    The professor begins by saying that we’re going to try to understand aspects of macroscopic systems by looking at the probabilities associated with the quantum states available to them. Since we’ll assume each quantum state is equally likely to occur, it comes down to counting the number of available states.

    How many possible quantum states are we talking about? Beyond astronomical numbers. So we will need to learn how count or manage numbers that big.

    According to Stirling’s approximation: ln(52!) ~ 52*ln(52) – 52 = 153.46

    See, isn’t that nice and managable?

    Then you mostly look at deriving simple thermodynamics laws using this theory. My thesis advisor was big on teaching thermodynamics in a historically compliant fashion so that it doesn’t become just a math exercise. Unfortunately, I never took a course from him.

  3. Here’s a post that I put, in another part of the site.

    I’m re-posting it, here, so it will be easier to find:

    Hi AesopFan,

    Thanks for all the info on – different bands singing: “Red sails in the sunset”.

    I’ll go + try to find videos of these songs.

    If you like hearing folk-songs, + US songs from US history, There is the singer named, Burl Ives.

    He had a singing career, + movies career, from the 1940s through the 1980s, I think.

    Here’s a Wikipedia page that lists [most of, I think], the songs sung, + recorded, by Burl Ives:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_works_by_Burl_Ives

    I just wanted to tell you about his songs, if you like those kinds of songs.

    Cheers.

    p.s.- Sorry that I didn’t reply to you, earlier. I’ve had a busy week. ?

    Also- Burl Ives’ songs, “Rudolph the red nosed reindeer”, + “Have a holly, jolly Christmas”, are still being played on USA radio stations, each year.

  4. miguel c.,
    In scientific notation the form is: mantissa x 10^exponent
    Or in math this form is popular: mantissa x (natural e)^exponent

    So when the numbers are that big, it’s the exponent that counts.
    52! has a natural exponent of about 153.5, if you set the mantissa to one.

    As the video explains, it’s an incomprehensibly big number. But maybe you can manage them, and work with them, using exponents and Stirling’s approx.

  5. yes it’s a big number, i tried getting to 128, and it’s almost incalculable,

  6. “That sequence has never before existed in the history of time.”

    This guy must be a climate change advocate.

    No, it’s remarkably unlikely that it has existed, but … no, it CAN have existed, so it MAY have existed, so saying “Never Before” is a failure to grasp BASIC statistics.

    It should be noted that this number isn’t even that large, in math terms.

    A google is 10^100 — which is more than 52!, which is about 10^66

    But even that is a complete piker — a googleplex is

    10^(10^100)

    You can probably guess, that’s one HELL of a lot larger.

    And it’s not even the largest number every used in a math solution.

  7. Crystal Ball time? Current headlines: White House Postpones Joe Biden’s Trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia – “Reason for Delay Wasn’t Immediately Clear” /// U.S. Officials Admit They Have Lied About Ukraine Success and Russian Failures ///

    Stand by for Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan in 3..2…?

  8. Could be I’m off, but I thought the googleplex was 10^(100^100), so missing a zero there Obloody?

  9. OBloody:

    When my son was very little, we used to tell him that we loved him a googleplex.

    He was very mathematically inclined.

  10. Just another open-thread comment about something on YouTube.

    To repeat myself, political mind changes are a staple of Neo’s blog. If this interests you, then you might like to listen to Meghan Murphy’s interview of Keri Smith on leaving the social justice cult. It’s interesting and fun to listen to two smart ladies talk about their lives, how their minds have changed, and the consequences of it all.

    Here’s a link:

    https://youtu.be/LAsnv-8ZFok

  11. No, sdferr, ObloodyHell had it right. A googolplex is 10^(10^100), or a one followed by a googol of zeros. Kind of big, but not in the same league with Graham’s number. (Note the spelling: googol, not google.)

  12. Cornflower, the interview with Keri Smith started out kind of slow but it’s worth keeping on with. I had forgotten about the viciousness of the knitting wars.
    sdferr, wonderful Elon Musk interview
    As far as the 52! video goes, I loved it.

  13. It’s funny, even before he got to the last minute and a half I was thinking, “Each one of us really is special, huh?” Same with Planet Earth. Sure, there are probably billions of other planets out there, but only one is our home.

  14. Steve57 and Hubert:

    On the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Midway Drachinifel has a 3 hour YouTube video about Midway with an extended interview Q/A with John Parshall co author of “Shattered Sword.”

    The Battle of Midway – 80th Anniversary Stream ft. Jon Parshall

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVhHKPvfL5k

    It should be very good with lots of detail (not gimmicks and eye candy, actual content).

  15. Spider Solitaire involves 4 decks of cards so that’s a much larger number of shuffles than 52 cards. So I was wondering how it was possible to predict that 98% of games are winnable which is a common statement (if you play perfectly) Practically it’s 1 in 3.
    As it happens –
    In a study titled Solitaire: Man Versus Machine published in 2004, the researchers stated that “It is one of the embarrassments of applied mathematics that we cannot determine the odds of winning the common game of solitaire” as even simple questions such as what are the odds of winning at these games “remain beyond mathematical analysis”.

  16. I just want to point out I’m guessing in his conclusion he means the observable universe. Because if he means the entire universe and it’s actually infinite then the conclusion he comes to is actually completely wrong. There would be an infinite number of perfect copies of not only you but of our entire observable universe.

  17. @ TR > “There is the singer named, Burl Ives.”

    I grew up listening to Ives, so thanks for the reminder.
    Glad you enjoyed the “Red Sails” links.

  18. Open thread point of privilege to introduce a new topic.

    Dr Naomi Wolf (a former leftists moving to the right at a rapid pace) has a very important article about the Covid vaccines, which seem to have dropped off the media radar, including the conservative ones, but which is horrifying if what she says is true (and she is very particular about her writing, much like Neo).

    https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/dear-friends-sorry-to-announce-a?s=r
    “I’ve been rendered almost speechless — or the literary equivalent of that — because recently I’ve had the unenviable task of trying to announce to the world that indeed, a genocide — or what I’ve called, clumsily but urgently, a “baby die-off” — is underway.

    The WarRoom/DailyClout Pfizer Documents Research Volunteers, a group of 3000 highly credentialled doctors, RNs, biostatisticians, medical fraud investigators, lab clinicians and research scientists, have been turning out report after report, as you may know, to tell the world what is in the 55,000 internal Pfizer documents which the FDA had asked a court to keep under wraps for 75 years. By court order, these documents were forcibly disclosed. And our experts are serving humanity by reading through these documents and explaining them in lay terms. You can find all of the Volunteers’ reports on DailyClout.io.

    The lies revealed are stunning.”

    Understatement of the year.
    RTWT

    Also her post on the Second Amendment (she was against it before she was for it).
    https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/rethinking-the-second-amendment?s=r

  19. 52! is huge, great video.

    Uniqueness is wonderful.

    I think his numbers on chromosomes might be correct, but he doesn’t talk about all the different possible chromosomes, just mentioning the alleles. I’m often thinking about how every man has the same Y chromosome as their father, and sons. With their daughter having the same X chromosome – which is a much larger chromosome.

    I also wonder wonder how few atoms of water would their have to be before the likelihood of two being identical would be over 50%.

    Similarly, the birthday paradox, of needing just 23 random people before there’s a 50:50 chance of some two of them having the same birthday.
    https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/
    With 75, it’s a 99.9% at least two have the same birthday.

  20. AesopFan:

    It would be very difficult to check Wolf’s assertions because the link she gives is to a mountain of articles that would take about a year to plow through. But one thing I can say is that I see some headlines there that deal with claims about the vaccine that I’ve already looked into and they are incorrect according to my own analysis. Wolf herself has sort of gone off the deep end in recent years in many ways, and I’m not impressed by her intellectual rigor at all in the field of hard science.

  21. Naomi Wolf is, very simply, a nut case.
    This doesn’t mean that she’s wrong necessarily; only that any claim she makes should be taken with a salt-mine’s worth of NaCl.

    (Having said that, she does seem to have become more sane ever since realizing that her former friends on the left have become The Enemy… Still, remember that salt mine.)

    Speaking of “outlandish”—and likely soon to be illegal—claims…
    https://blazingcatfur.ca/2022/06/04/get-ready-lara-logans-new-film-on-election-fraud-is-almost-here/

    File under: Wrongthink must be eradicated from the face of the Earth!!

  22. }}} (Note the spelling: googol, not google.)

    A popular misspelling up with which I refuse to countenance.

    It’s a google, not a googol. 😛

    .

    .

    .

    .
    (IZ JOKE!! Google is a misspelling of googol, just as Macintosh is a misspelling of either the apple variety or the raincoat).

  23. P.S., the wiki entry for Graham’s Number (I forget if I was thinking of that or Skewes’ number when I mentioned “larger” numbers) is interesting:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham%27s_number

    Graham’s number is so large it cannot be physically represented in the observable universe, just to put it into perspective.

    And yet…

    }}} Other specific integers (such as TREE(3)) known to be far larger than Graham’s number have since appeared in many serious mathematical proofs

  24. }}} The Battle of Midway – 80th Anniversary Stream ft. Jon Parshall

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVhHKPvfL5k

    It should be very good with lots of detail (not gimmicks and eye candy, actual content).

    How does it compare with the old 1976 Midway movie, which was done (as was Tora! Tora! Tora!) in a semi-documentary style, suggesting serious efforts at accuracy?

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074899/

    It was, as I recall, in Sensurround, which used serious bass speakers to give realism to the explosions, etc., but also one of the movies which ended the use of Sensurround, because in very old theaters, it was shaking the ceiling plaster loose and dropping it on theatergoers. 😛

  25. }}} (IZ JOKE!! Google is a misspelling of googol, just as Macintosh is a misspelling of either the apple variety or the raincoat).

    BTW, I will note that, in both cases, you could probably make an argument that they were deliberate misspellings promoted by the legal departments, since otherwise it may have been more difficult to trademark the words. 😉

  26. Hey, any further news on that Pelosi Porsche “incident”?
    (Hmm, didn’t think so….)

    Another “phenomenon” that’s been memory holed?
    “Hillary’s Attorney ‘Operated’ an FBI Office at Law Firm, But Wait, It Gets Worse…”—
    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/victoria-taft/2022/06/03/hillarys-attorney-operated-an-fbi-office-at-law-firm-but-wait-it-gets-worse-n1602734
    Key grafs:
    ‘…Congressmen Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla) say a whistleblower informed them that Perkins Coie, for which Hillary and the DNC’s campaign attorneys Marc Elias and Sussmann worked, had an FBI outpost there. That’s right, an office space inside the Perkins Coie law firm was run “in concert with the FBI,” according to Gaetz. And Michael Sussmann was “operating that worksite.”…[Emphasis mine; Barry M.]
    ‘…While Sussmann is an election attorney, he also specializes in cyber security, but it still doesn’t explain why the FBI office space is “operated” by him. And Sussmann also has as one of his clients another man being looked at by Durham, federal cyber security contractor Rodney Joffe.
    ‘Gaetz told Carlson that he is concerned “that politically motivated dirt was being converted into politically motivated in investigations.” That question appears to have been asked and answered so far in the Durham investigation and the Sussmann trial documents. That’s exactly what they did. Former federal prosecutor Andy McCarthy called this the “Ball of Collusion.”…’
    ‘…Conservative Treehouse has been reporting for the past couple of years that the Obama administration began weaponizing the executive branch, such as the IRS and its lackey Lois Lerner as its chief source of information and potential dirt on political enemies, in cahoots with Attorney General Eric Holder. The tale is long, intricate, and awful, but suffice it to say, when that informational spigot was turned off for Obama’s spies looking for dirt on their political enemies, they cast about for new fonts of info.
    ‘Voila! The spigot was turned on in 2012 and ended on April 18, 2016, for “FBI contractors” when Admiral Mike Rogers, the head of the NSA, saw that contractors and outsiders were using their database, shared with the FBI, to make inappropriate “FISA-702 search” queries….’

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