Putin’s rattling those nuclear weapons
We’ve heard it from Vladimir Putin himself. We’ve heard it from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. But just in case we somehow missed the message, a political scientist and longtime supporter of Putin by the name of Sergey Mikheev went on Russian state television this week to make their point absolutely crystal clear. If the United States, NATO, or any other western nation sends any sort of military peacekeeping force into Ukraine, Russia will start unloading their nuclear arsenal on everyone. This time the warning wasn’t even subtle, though. Mikheev actually sounded excited or perhaps even exuberant over the idea. He also had a list of targets at hand. Near the top of the list was Warsaw, with Berlin and the capitals of some other EU members not far behind.
Don’t you dare interrupt us in Ukraine or you’ll be destroyed, too.
Russia has been threatening Sweden with nuclear weapons as well. Yeah, Sweden. And not just verbal threats, either:
Two Russian planes that violated Swedish airspace earlier this month were equipped with nuclear weapons, it has emerged.
The flyover near the island of Gotland on March 2 was a deliberate act designed to intimidate Sweden, according to Swedish news channel TV4 Nyheterna.
A total of four planes had taken off from the Russian air base of Kaliningrad.
They consisted of two Sukhoi 24 attack planes, which were escorted by two Sukhoi 27 fighter jets.
It was the two attack planes which were, according to TV4 Nyheter sources, equipped with nuclear weapons…
‘We assess it as a conscious action. Which is very serious especially as [Russia] is a warring country,’ added Air Force Chief Carl-Johan Edström.
Fortunately, so far the Russians seem to be doing relatively poorly in its conventional warfare against Ukraine even without intervention by NATO troops although – as said many times – it’s hard to get a real bead on it or to predict the ultimate result. There’s this sort of thing, though:
In a clip shared on Twitter and in pro-Ukraine Telegram channels, a group of ten student soldiers in oversized helmets wielding AK-47s from the 1940s complain they’ve been ‘thrown into the s**t’.
One complains: ‘Know the truth! The Russian Ministry of Defence has no idea about us, or what we’re doing here.”
I can well believe it. I have no trouble believing this, either:
One Pentagon document described soldiers simply parking their vehicles and walking away from the war into woods.
As corrupt and bizarre as our own government has become, I think the Russians are more so – just in a different way.
The risk here is that with such crummy conventional weapons and soldiers not fighting is that Putin uses a nuke because – more likely than not – it WILL WORK.
Medvedev’s comments on the situations in which Russia would use nuclear weapons sound a lot more rational:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/there-are-several-grounds-for-russia-to-use-nuclear-weapons-says-russias-former-president-medvedev/articleshow/90455646.cms
I worry that the withdrawal of Russian forces from part of Ukraine is being done in preparation for Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin wouldn’t want to nuke his own army.
It’s weird. I keep hearing about negotiations and how a breakthrough is” just around the corner” or whatever. But the UK is urging Zelensky not to back down and hold out for a better deal. Of course without knowing any specifics whatsoever it’s impossible to even guess at what they’re negotiating about (other than vague territory).
All that can be said with any kind of certainty is that the longer the fighting continues, the more people will die on both sides. So who can suffer the longest? Some people are clearly hoping that if the fighting continues long enough, Putin will end up in such a weakened state that he might be overthrown or “taken out” by his own inner circle. But who can say if that’s even a reasonable conjecture. And in the mean time, how many more Ukrainians will die?
I was hoping this was the April Fool’s Day post.
Sigh…
John Guilfoyle:
Yes, I was thinking when I published this post that unfortunately it’s not an April Fools post, but it almost sounds like one.
Truth is stranger than fiction.
Russians would probably bomb Petrograd mistaking it for Sweden.
An alternative assessment;
NATO or the UN sending into the Ukraine peacekeeping troops would effectively be entering the war on the Ukraine’s side. If unopposed, it would ensure that NATO would achieve a defacto presence on Russia’s Ukraine border.
Threatening NATO with nuclear strikes is again sending to NATO’s political leadership i.e. the USA, a clear and unequivocal message that Russia will go to nuclear war to prevent NATO from placing itself on Russia’s Ukraine border.
It’s meant to finally get through to the West that Russia is really, actually and truly serious about that being a total non-starter for Russia. And in doing so, to act as an actual deterrent.
IMO, however wrongly, they see NATO on their Ukraine border as allowing the West’s global leftist leadership to then have the capability to put a ‘knife’ both militarily, culturally and politically… to a then defenseless Russia’s neck.
To gain a full understanding of a great power’s actual motivations, what they say must be contrasted with an objective appraisal of the geopolitical and strategic factors they face and embrace. Simply demonizing a great power, makes a negotiated settlement nearly impossible because everything becomes black and white, a case of do or die.
Which is exactly the position that Putin and his military strategists perceive the West’s global leadership as having placed Russia in… with its announced intention to place NATO on Russia’s Ukraine border.
Russian ex-president Dmitry Medvedev;
“there are several grounds under which Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons, including an attack on the country or encroachment on infrastructure as a result of which Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces would be paralysed.
But he added that negotiations – even in the most difficult situations such as those around Ukraine – are Moscow’s preferred path to proceed.” [my emphasis]
The emboldened phrase above aludes to Russia’s strategic view of NATO in place upon Russia’s Ukraine border.
Is anyone talking about sending NATO or UN peacekeepers into Ukraine? I haven’t heard even our muddled president saying such a thing.
An alternative assessment;
IOW, you’re going to eat another sh!t sandwich.
Geoffrey continues to carry the water for Roosia and the Vlad corruptocrats.
Putting a knife to the throat of Russia? That certainly is sober and nuanced take, after all it is a threat to Roosia’s culture, military, infrastructure, … and precious bodily fluids.
Because the evil west is always lusting to turn the Kremlin into glassy rubble, eh, Geoffrey? Even to the point of MAD? Vlad has brought the Cold War back. Your man Vlad.
Art Deco,
“eat another sh!t sandwich.”
May what you wish upon others, be returned onto you tenfold.
om,
Listen to yourself, disagreement becomes treasonousness support for the enemy…
May what you wish upon others, be returned onto you tenfold.
Why not learn the difference between a wish and an observation?
You’ve placed oodles of verbiage on these threads attempting to make the case for Russian policy. Ptolomaic cosmology grew ever more rococo because a crucial foundational premise was false.
Geoffrey you are accusing yourself of treason. A charge you commonly level against the left, sometimes justifiably.
Why you choose to parrot (uncritically IMO) the points put forward by Roosia is something you might wish to ponder.
Conversation with Garry Kasparov about Putin`s war in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTeMwS9KFJA
“I have no trouble believing this, either:
I am NOT saying you should not believe that. I AM SAYING that you should have a sizable chaw of trouble believing it. Esp a “Pentagon document.”
And just to make things even rosier, Putin’s “Air Force One” plane took off yesterday and flew around in large circles for a long time and then landed back at its base.
Oh yes, our Air Force one did the same thing yesterday as a number of long-range airborne tankers were flying up and down the east coast along with some fighter caps as well.
Just training exercises. No doubt.
I would guess that in a nuclear exchange the first move would be decapitation of command and control. That means that the Joe Biden stand-ins are going to need to be pre-positioned at Iron Mountain.
Good times!
Not to make light of a serious situation, but is Brandon capitated?
Is that Kremlin One or Vlad One? That French Louis quote, ‘I, am the state!’ comes to mind.
Not to make light of a serious situation, but is Brandon capitated?
Is that Kremlin One or Vlad One? That French Louis XIV quote, ‘I am the state!’ comes to mind. A good story even if not true.
Art Deco,
Declaring a contrary argument to be a sh*t sandwich is a pejoritive attack. In doing so, you declare yourself to be the arbiter of what is valid and what is not. It’s a great flaw. Not for us but for you.
Nor have I ever attempted “to make the case for Russian policy”. I have pointed out the duplicity on our side and cited the many instances where other highly placed officials and academics agree with my assertions as to Russia’s strategic concerns. That does it equate to taking Putin’s side.
That you dismiss that contrary point of view does not, in and of itself, invalidate it.
“Geoffrey you are accusing yourself of treason” om
When have I ever equated disagreement itself with treason?
It is actions which define treason and the left’s actions, rather than verbal and written support for policies that would result in tyranny, wherein treason resides. Verbal and written support for policies that knowingly will result in tyranny are seditious in nature.
I highly recommend these sites. They have built up serious cred by being very accurate in their analysis. I have also noticed that pictures of destroyed vehicles have diminished significantly. We are in a “fog of war”. I read the Daily Mail for the Deep State propaganda. They are the best of a bad lot. A lot of you are going to be very disappointed in 30-40 days.
https://thedreizinreport.com/
https://www.locals.com/member/theduran?community_id=6930
They are also on YouTube, but I don’t give that channel my eyeballs if possible.
Both discuss the single most ignored story in the West. There was a video at a milk factory 10 miles in the outskirts of Kharkov that showed the systematic torture and murder of captured Russian soldiers. You may not have seen it, but it has been shown in Russia, China, India, Brazil and many Arab nations. Ukraine’s ABU GHRAB moment.
Zero Hedge, The Burning Platform and The Conservative Treehouse do good work in their particular area. The Gateway Pundit plays it both ways. I will dip into the SAKER blog but discount it a lot.
Substack (which I love) has Wauck’s “Meaning in History, Emerald Robinson and Technofog – (better than shipwrecked crew). They are worth reading and ruminating. I financially support Emerald’s work.
I write an E-Blast to my fellow election integrity workers and here are some articles and authors that didn’t age well.
This didn’t age well – predictions of Russia’s defeat. Note the weeks they all came out in a seemly coordinated fashion.
https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/preparing-for-defeat/ (americanpurpose.com) – March 10th – This man wrote “The End of History”. Who the heck would listen to him? Read in full
1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/the-west-is-winning-russia-is-losing?utm_source=url&s=r – Feb 28th a hoot of a read when looking at it from today’s situation on the ground.
https://www.vox.com/2022/3/18/22977801/russia-ukraine-war-losing-map-kyiv-kharkiv-odessa-week-three
dated March 18th
https://cepa.org/the-next-10-days-will-decide-this-war/ CEPA dated March 15th
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) – March 16th these guys have been off the whole war. I have stopped reading them.
Yes, Ukraine Could Beat Russia | RealClearDefense March 18th
10 Realities of Ukraine › American Greatness (amgreatness.com) March 16th – normally VDH is good.
Vladimir Putin Has Almost No Chance of Successfully Occupying Ukraine | RealClearDefense March 17th
H.R. McMaster: Russia ‘Getting Desperate’ in Ukraine | Newsmax.com March 26th. He headed NSC during the Trump term. No wonder we are messed up.
Ukraine: If we hold out until May, the Russian army will collapse – HotAir – March 15th
Russia Seeking China’s Military Help In Ukraine, US “Sources” Say In Afternoon Of Media Leaks; China Responds: “Never Heard Of That” | ZeroHedge – March 14th
Ukraine Crushes Three Great Myths About Russia – American Thinker – March 1st a hoot of a read
Sorry the links didn’t carry over from my email. But you get the gist of the message in the headlines.
I Am Spartacus:
I’ve noted several times that I don’t post much news about the status of the war in the military sense – who’s winning, who’s losing, who will ultimately win, who will ultimately lose – for the simple reason that I distrust reports on both sides. When I write “I can well believe it” it merely means I can believe it but not that I do believe it.
Same with the torture video. For example:
I am old enough to know that in every war there are some atrocities, even in wars that are waged by relatively decent forces. I am also quite aware that such things are sometimes faked by the other side for propaganda purposes (the Palestinians are famous for this – “Pallywood” – and used to be quite successful at it).
And so I don’t write about it till I know more. At the moment we know next to nothing about the authenticity of that video. It could be very real, or it could be fake. If real, I very much doubt such behavior is common, although of course it could be.
Neo – point well taken. It may be the equivalent of the “Zimmerman Telegram” or Gulf of Tonkin or babies taken out of incubators in Gulf War I. But I watched two videos and honestly they look real enough. I knew the Syrian Chemical weapons was pys ops as the workers were not well protected and didn’t practice safe procedures. Mustard Gas or Chlorine is nasty stuff. The “injured people didn’t have the signs of exposure.
That is why I view the videos as a tad more creditable. But I will be the first to say I was “had” if proven false.
The “war of the bullets” is beating the “war of the pixels”. Don’t be surprised to see victory parades in Red Square May 7th.
Here is a book for your to learn about the biggest non-Holocaust mass casualty chemical weapons event of WWII; mustard gas in Bari Italy December 3, 1943. led directly to the use of chemotherapy t/o fight cancer.
Mustard gas as a precursor in the fight against cancer. What do you know about chemical warfare, really?
The Great Secret by Jennet Conant copyright 2020.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50489363-the-great-secret
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_raid_on_Bari
File under “Fog of War.”
Geoffrey:
Here are your own words to me when I questioned your promotion of the Russian Federation POV:
“om,
Listen to yourself, disagreement becomes treasonousness support for the enemy…”
I have not accused you of treason. Is that hard to understand Geoffrey? You accuse yourself. Or are you saying I am a traitor because I don’t link WEF / Davos / NATO / Ukraine to Vlad’ s invasion?
Don’t play the victim. As you tried with “censorship.”
Geofffrey:
Here you go, a video from Mark Felton regarding Vlad and nukes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjrPS8Lzs2g‘
Doesn’t seem that Vlad wants the Cold War to stay cold after all.
Mark Felton is usually pretty good, but no one is perfect: in this case regarding the proposal to use Lancaster bombers as a backup to deliver the atomic bombs in case the B-29 program failed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKB-oqdoduw
I Am Spartacus:
Well, I certainly don’t know what’s true and what’s false in the propaganda wars. I do know that videos can be staged. Also, my present working hypothesis (subject to change, of course) is that Ukrainian propaganda is often false but Russian propaganda is virtually always false.
OM – in my sophomore year I read “Disaster at Bari” Also I was in ROTC and my advisor was in the Chemical Corps who gave a class about NBC warfare. I am glad we never had to suffer through it. I went through a tear gas exercise on FTX. So, I have knowledge of chemical warfare and its effect.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2666635-disaster-at-bari
Neo – Agree. Trouble is that it was a Ukrainian source that leaked the video. When it comes to propaganda, I would posit that it is Ukrainian that is always false vs. the Russian. Remember the “ghost of Kiev”? The “F-U” response of the 13 Ukrainians on Snake Island? The reaction of the surrendered guards of Snake Island when shown the video? The bombing of the maternity hospital in Mariupol? The problem for the Deep State is that we have gotten really good about discovering the errors in the propaganda videos.
https://technofog.substack.com/p/ukraine-maternity-hospital-shelling?s=r
https://technofog.substack.com/p/ukrainerussia-beware-the-false-flags?s=r‘
This dude has built a lot of cred.
Please check out the two links I provided earlier and come to your own conclusions.
I Am Spartacus:
You say it was a Ukrainian source that leaked the video. I’ve read many articles about the video and they all say only that the video was posted on “social media.” Nothing about the source other than that. Where did you get your information? Do you have a link?
In addition, I have little doubt that there are some “Ukrainian sources” allied with the Russian side of things. But none of this tells us whether this particular video is real or false.
The fact that there is plenty of Ukrainian propaganda that’s false – as I’ve already stated – doesn’t change the fact that Russian propaganda seems to me to be even more often false. Again, that doesn’t tell us anything about whether that particular video (of the alleged torture of Russian soldiers) is true or false.
I’ve watched many videos that have been recommended to me by people who say that this person or that person has been reliable and telling the truth about things, and none of the videos I’ve watched so far has seemed that way to me. I simply have no way to evaluate whether they are true or false. I think the only thing we really know about this war is that people have died, the Russians are still in Ukraine, few people predicted the scope of the invasion, and few people thought the Ukrainians would put up much of a fight and yet they have.
@ Neo & Spartacus
I am staying on the fence over the atrocity stories (from either side).
This post is relevant to the one you discussed, which I think has a lot of unanswered questions about it: What is the videos true provenance? Was it staged by Russia? If actually done by Ukrainians, have the soldiers involved been identified (and hopefully arrested) by the Ukraine army? Why in the world would they video themselves committing what cannot be interpreted as anything other than a war crime?
Where are the bodies?
https://summit.news/2022/03/30/report-russian-special-forces-capture-ukrainians-who-tortured-soldiers/
New questions: How did the Russians identify and find the soldiers they have accused? Is the arrest staged by the Russians, because they also staged the shootings?
And what’s the deal with this bizarre statement at the link?
“[Chairman of the Defence Committee of the State Duma, Vladimir] Shamanov went on to assert that two of the individuals had been captured and that they were “radicals” as well as supporters of the Ukrainian football club FC Metalist Kharkiv.”
@ Neo > “Ukrainian propaganda is often false but Russian propaganda is virtually always false.”
The Ukrainians only lie about the “and.”
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2016/09/18/every-word/
Spartacus wrote:
“This didn’t age well – predictions of Russia’s defeat.”
What didn’t age well? The Russians have, thus far, been defeated in their objectives. The airborne assault on Kiev failed. The amphibious assault on Odessa failed. The amphibious assault on Mauripol failed. The armored assaults on Kiev, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mauripol (thus far) have failed. Only at Mauripol are they likely to turn that around within the next few days.
It appears now from their troop re-deployments that the Russians have given up on Odessa, Kiev, and Chernihiv and possibly also Kharkiv, apparently preferring to annihilate and starve that latter city instead of occupy it. The Russians are now by their own admission regrouping their forces to concentrate on Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mauripol. That right there tells you that they have thus far failed.
Through the use of Wagner and Spetznatz special forces, the Russians effectively *already had* Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea even before the invasion started. That the Russians have expended 1/3 of their entire cruise and short-range ballistic missile arsenal and committed 160 out of 180 available Battalion Tactical Groups, 70-75% of their available land forces, and 50% of their available amphibious assault forces to — at best — add the north shore of the Sea of Azov to their collection shows us just how much of a failure the invasion is even if they accomplish that goal.
At what cost? 10-20,000 Russian soldiers dead, several armored divisions wiped out, hundreds of tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles destroyed, 1/3 of their missile inventory expended, and most of their vaunted space program in mothballs, all to take over a few miles of shoreline and its adjacent highway.
That’s just the tactical cost. In addition to that, they’ve allowed the United States to collect test data on their most advanced weapons, strengthened NATO’s eastern flank with real — instead of tripwire — forces, caused Germany, Poland, and the Baltics to re-arm themselves, possibly driven Finland and Sweden into NATO, and convinced even the Democrats to invest in anti-hypersonic missile defenses.
Worst of all (for them) they’ve proven to the world that they’re a paper tiger. My god! They *have* to threaten America with nuclear weapons to keep them out of the war. If America joined the war they would roll up the entire Russian army in a month. America wouldn’t even need ground troops to do it. 100 F-35s conducting SEAD would allow 100 F-15s to achieve air superiority which would allow 100 Warthogs to chew up the Russian armor and artillery like an alligator chewing up a rabbit. The biggest constraint would be the 100 Globemasters ferrying missiles and ammunition across the Atlantic trying to keep up.
Until a month ago we considered Russia a “peer” or “near-peer” competitor. No more! They are now known to be a third-world military on par with Saddam’s old Iraqi army. Barring a major change of events, this is a major strategic defeat for Russia. And China.
@ Spartacus > “Please check out the two links I provided earlier and come to your own conclusions.”
Techo Fog (who I am familiar with, and accept that he has established credit for astute observations) in both posts: made a lot of assertions, quoted people on all sides making either demands or allegations, speculated about motives, drew attention to some physical anomalies and requested experts to weigh in about blast patterns, and didn’t come to a definite conclusion about the hospital.
I don’t have anything to argue with about that.
This, however, shows a lack of creative thinking.
How about “and start boiling water because that’s what you need to care for people who have been bloodied and are at risk of infection, and others who, oh, maybe, just a wild guess here, might be going into labor outside the hospital in the dirt, because that’s what midwives and grannies have done for a couple of millennia before the OB’s and sterile delivery rooms took over.”
One of my first lessons in a grad school course about statistics and data-collection was “don’t jump to the first conclusion you think of.”
https://www.straightdope.com/21342259/when-a-woman-gives-birth-in-westerns-why-do-they-always-boil-water
In re the Snake Island defenders who were all killed by the Russian warship except they were captured instead (Techno Fog of War?) – at least one has been released.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/31/sailor-who-told-russian-ship-go-fk-yourself-starved-beaten-mother/
My comment about Snake Island’s heroic defender had to be edited 5 times before Sister Mary Algorithm would let it pass.
Some bits of the excerpt are missing, and I took out a reference to The Daily Mail online.
Although it seems to be okay here.
Random road-blocks just to keep us guessing?
mkent:
And on May 7, 2022 when the Roosian State has their annual parade in Red Square it will dedicated to the “Glorious Victory in Ukraine.” It may also be dedicated to the smashing of the Atlanticists and the minions of WEF / Davos and NATO? If not, Spartacus and Geoffrey will be sad.
Not that there is an election in November of 2022 to be concerned about.
mkent’s summary at 5:43 a.m. is spot on as to what has happened to Russia in this invasion.
om, when we were in Cairo we frequently passed the monument to the “glorious victory of Egypt over Israel in 1973.” My husband looked at his Egyptian colleagues and remarked that actually they got whipped. They nodded sheepishly and agreed.
What counts is what Putin wants. Nobody else’s learned essays on the geo-strategic realities are worth a cent. Nor the version of what Putin would want, should want, or the rationality of what it looks as if Putin is doing.
The record of nations doing obviously stupid stuff at horrendous cost ought to be obvious.
Problem is, we can’t control such things. Scary. Pretending we Know Stuff is comforting.
The “war of the bullets” is beating the “war of the pixels”. Don’t be surprised to see victory parades in Red Square May 7th.
I think people should hold you to that timetable.
What’s interesting for those of us layman is that Russia’s productive capacity exceeds the Ukraine by a factor of 7.5. (For scale, note that that of the United States exceeds that of Mexico by a factor of 8.7). Russia does not have to assemble an expeditionary force. Well, 36 days into this campaign, they hold three of the Ukraine’s 12 largest cities and may capture a fourth within the week. The thing is, three of these four cities they nicked from the Ukraine eight years ago.
Just for scale, the Anglo-American conquest of Iraq in 2003 took 26 days, the German-Russian conquest of Poland in 1939 took 36 days, the Fall of France in 1940 took 46 days, the first phase of the Franco-Prussian War in 1870 took 49 days (at which point the capital and the central government were placed under siege), the Austro-Prussian War took 38 days
Seems like I have raised some good discussion.
MKent – I would caution about who is winning using Western sources. The Institute for the Study of War has been a joke. I would caution about accepting casualty numbers put out by Ukraine. The Maternity Hospital woman was an Instagram influencer. Coincidence? The Miss Ukrainian joining the fight on the front lines with an air rifle. The boxing brothers with rifles ready to fight. Only they are in Lvov (I use Polish spellings) far away from the fight.
What are the Russian war objectives? They never said they would take over the country. Putin said in his speech they were to ensure Ukraine never joined NATO, recognition that Crimea is part of Russia, Donbass and Luhansk be self governing and elimination of Neo-Nazi organizations. Tyrants often say what they want to do. He has done the same with Georgia, South Ossetia and Crimea. So I believe that is what he is after.
It is obvious that there was serious shortfall in the Russian logistics and they were exposed. That always happens when a peacetime army moves to war. In the Iraq war, the logistics unit where Jessica Lynch was captured put up a piss poor tactical fight after they blundered off the approved secure supply route.
Read this site and balance these statements against legacy media reports. Determine in your mind who is more accurate.
https://thedreizinreport.com/
On the Duran report they have as a guest an embedded guest, Gonzalo Lira who is in hiding in Kharkov from the Ukrainian ultra nationalists. He gives a sense of the street. Remember the arms being distributed from the back of trucks so the brave citizens can fight the Russkies? It seems like they are the nationalist factions settling scores. Zelensky also empties the prisons of criminals to “fight”. I wonder exactly what criminals were released.
They also have posted videos of the Greek ex-pats in Mariupol saying it was the Ukrainian Azov Brigade who fired on them trying to leave via the humanitarian corridor. It aired on Greek TV one time and was promptly never shown again.
On Monday they will host Scott Ritter of “no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq” fame. The Neo-Cons went after him. At that time I still believed them. It has been quite an evolution that past 25 years in how I think about Western institutions.
I just offer different channels of information to be used to draw your own conclusions.
OM/MKENT – fair enough. We will see what has transpired on May 7th. That is a marker.
Election wise – I can walk and chew gum. I work with Election Integrity groups to get poll workers in problematic jurisdictions. Also, on groups geared on finding, vetting, recruiting and training local candidates particularly for school boards. We have gotten several to run. My group has filed the paperwork to recall all eligible members of a school board. We are working with the Thomas Moore Society on that. Now we are in fundraising mode.
This on top of working full time in the Defense Industry in a job I can’t go into detail.
So, the challenge is back to all of you. What are you doing to have free and fair elections?
I don’t see why ISW assessments are a “joke.” After all, Russian deployments are visible on satellite. The only way this could be a “joke” would be if Russia had sent those armored forces into northern Ukraine as a feint and never intended to quickly overrun Kyiv or Kharkiv. Seems like a pretty expensive feint, especially since they haven’t yet succeeded in the Donbas to the extent wanted.
Agreed that reports of atrocities and casualties published by both sides should be viewed with extreme caution.
The May 7, 2022 parade will continue the glorious tradition, some information, lots of propaganda.
Regarding the ISW, our elections worker knows what to believe and will tell us on May 7, 2022. He sees though the fog don’t you know.
Spartacus’s election integrity work is admirable. I am contributing financially to Republicans and will volunteer as a poll observer. The questions about the Ukraine war are separate issues.
Putin said in his speech they were to ensure Ukraine never joined NATO, recognition that Crimea is part of Russia, Donbass and Luhansk be self governing and elimination of Neo-Nazi organizations.
All four parts of this summary should have alerted you that the speech was nonsense.
@I am Spartacus The Zimmerman Telegram and Gulf of Tonkin were both substantially true; the the latter had two incidents, the first in which Communist Vietnamese light craft attacked a USN ship (and were beaten back fairly handily), the second saw the same ship and crew that had survived the attacks on patrol later at which point the understandably-jumpy crews began interpreting what was PROBABLY white noise and began shelling the radio blips that they thought were communist Communist attack craft and were probably fish. Which got conflated and confused (Partially accidentally and partially intentionally by Hanoi and its sponsors trying to deny anything happened).
Meanwhile the Zimmerman Telegram was confirmed true by the man himself, who in a case of touching naivety blindsided his own dictatorship’s attempts to denydenydeny, claim it was a British forgery, and otherwise by trying to “explain his reasoning” to the world. Which unsurprisingly did NOT go down well.
That said, the description Neo describes at least indicates to me that the video isn’t a blatant forgery like one video I remembered purporting to show “Azov” “crucifying” someone. Which as a Christian and a former Roman Re-enactor made my jaw drop because they did almost everything wrong from how the “victim” was bound to the decision to *light the base of the “cross on FIRE” (which amounts to destroying the thing you’re trying to use to kill them with) to cutting out just as the fire was rising, meaning no proof of death.
I’ll have to see myself.
They also not-coincidentally demanded the “neutralization” and “de-militarization” of Ukraine, probably turning it into a state not too dissimilar to the “Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia.” Suffice it to say, this is all in violation of a huge amount of international laws and agreements the Russian gov’t signed (as I laboriously showed by quoting stuff like Astana and Helsinki), but yah.
Agreed with caveats, though they often also say what they want others to believe or think others will find acceptable.
Turtler; I Am Spartacus:
You might be interested in looking at this post of mine from 2006 that goes into the press coverage of the Gulf of Tonkin decision.
who in a case of touching naivety blindsided his own dictatorship’s attempts to denydenydeny,
Wilhelmine Germany was a constitutional state, and one with better functioning institutions than the Republic which succeeded it.
@Art Deco
Even at my absolute most generous, I would have to emphasize that it WAS a constitutional state, but by at the latest 1916 it was no longer.
Instead, it was a proto-totalitarian, “War Socialist” hell-state dominated by an utterly unaccountable clique of Eastern Front Generals (the troika of Paul von Hindenburg, Erich Ludendorff, and Maximillian Hoffmann) who were- among other things- engaged in genocide, ethnic cleansing, and slave labor on a massive scale, and would go on to be foundational inspirations on Lenin’s Bolsheviks, Mussolini’s Fascisti, Hitler’s National Socialists, the assorted “dark valley” Japanese military cliques, and our own Progs.
Here are some good references.
https://www.proquest.com/openview/5ef9f3a98f370f7a017c89b183ba92c4/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y
https://mises.org/library/hindenburg-program-1916-central-experiment-wartime-planning
And frankly I’m not inclined to give it that much credit, because even BEFORE Germany went full totalitarian insanity in the middle of WWI, it STILL was designed to be an authoritarian regime with intentionally weak constitutional limits on the Monarch, Military, and Imperial Cabinet, allowing the powerbrokers behind the scenes to do basically whatever they liked. Up to and including Kaiser Wilhelm II shutting down all Reichstag discussions on outright genocide happening in German Southwest Africa and in effect giving his sanction and support to it. The Voigt Affair is usually portrayed as a light hearted farce or comedy, but it amounted to a thief stealing a German officer’s uniform, falsely commanding a bunch of soldiers (who had been taught to obey any orders), and terrorizing and robbing an innocent German village, to the AMUSEMENT of the German Leadership (complete with a slap on the wrist). And Bismarck essentially kidnapping his supposed Kaiser’s children (including the future Wilhelm II) also underlined how rule of law was extremely weak when you got into the innards of the upper regime and how not even the Imperial Family could be entirely safe with it.
Bismarck and WIlhelm II were no Hitlers, but it’s not a coincidence that the system they helped construct morphed into a real nightmare under the direction of Ludendorff (who I think it is safe to say was basically the Beta Prototype of Hitler and Mussolini).
What a lot of people forget- especially given how they later came to blows- is how so many Western Progs such as Woodrow Wilson lavished SUCH PRAISE on the “Prussian” or “German” system as a model of “rational” government in contrast to the “plutocratic” systems of the West, such as that established by the Founders. People forget he spent most of his life acting as basically a simp for the kind of administrative authoritarianism that was present in the German Empire and elsewhere in Central/Eastern Europe (in spite of how catastrophic this proved to be in the long run), and was probably pushed to join the war at least as much because his “senpais” didn’t accord him or his nation with the respect he thought was deserved (While the German leadership, for their own part, engaged in one of the most baffling and onesided Cold Wars on record, going back at least to 1898 and possibly to the Samoa Crises of the 1880s).
http://faculty.cbpp.uaa.alaska.edu/afgjp/padm601%20fall%202010/Woodrow%20Wilson's%20Adm%20Thought%20&%20German%20Theory.pdf
Honestly that depends on how you define “functioning.” Particularly when we are looking at the mid Weimar high.
But even if I concede the point, that’s partially because almost all the institutions of the German Empire were directed to perpetuating an “Enlightened” authoritarian ideal of Metternichan/Prussian Socialism and Monarchical Authority, while many of the institutions in the German Republic were dedicated to undermining and destroying the Republic and returning Germany to something closer to that of the Second Reich, or even (as we later found out) the Third.
And which for various reasons the German governments (even when they felt inclined to do so, and some like the von Papen cabinet certainly did not) had difficulty or outright could not rein them in due to the informal balance of power.
In particular the Reichswehr during the Weimar Era supported several coup attempts against the Republic (most notably the Kapp Putsch) and was doing other things like conducting foreign policy semi-independently. It’s one of the most egregious examples of the Deep State I can think of alongside what the Swamp did Re: Trump.