The Delta variant and the vaccine
Yesterday, commenter Edward R. Bonderenka wrote this:
As for the efficacy of the injection. I heard this morning that Israel, thoroughly injected, is seeing an upswing in ChiVi.
Now I hear it’s the Delta Variant (I shudder in fear).
But the injections were good against the DV.
Are they making it up as they go along?
I think the point of that comment was to say that the vaccine isn’t especially protective. It seems to me that the “shudder in fear” part might be sarcastic. But whether it’s sarcastic or not in that particular comment, “shudder in fear” is a good description of the effect that news of the Delta variant has on a lot of people, including a lot of people I know.
And it does seem as though quite a few authorities are itching to lock us down again, or at least to get us to all wear masks again.
It’s relatively early at this point in the life history of the Delta variant, but so far when I look at the actual numbers I see no cause for alarm. As has been true for the entire course of the pandemic, it’s the serious cases and the deaths that matter, and so far the rise in US cases is small according to the chart of cases per day. As for the rise in deaths, we only have data up to about three weeks ago, and there was no rise at that point.
But let’s take Israel, the country that was the subject of the comment. Israel is a good example because it’s compact and it’s easier to see the overall picture, plus it has a high percentage of vaccinated people.
The population of Israel is approximately 9,228,000. About 10% are over 65, and from this chart it seems that about another 450,000 are between 60 and 65 (that would add another 4.8%). So by my quick figuring, the total population over 60 in Israel would be about 1,373,000.
Of that 60-and-over group, more than 90% are fully vaccinated. Let’s lowball it and say that it’s 90%, which would mean that 1,235,700 are vaccinated in that age group. The Pfizer vaccine (used in Israel) is considered to be 95% effective. So I would conclude that 61,785 people over 60 in Israel who have been vaccinated would be expected to be susceptible to getting COVID despite the vaccine.
In populations over 60, what percent tend to have cases serious enough to be hospitalized? In the early days of the COVID pandemic (when there wasn’t good treatment and testing wasn’t so widespread), it was found that between 22% and 34% of people over 60 who got COVID needed hospitalization. I can’t find more recent statistics, but I’m pretty sure it’s a considerably smaller percentage at this point. I remember reading at one later time that it was 10% in the over-60 age group. So I’ll use that 10% figure.
If you look at the Worldometer charts for Israel, you’ll see that although case numbers have had a slight uptick there, they are still very low. Deaths haven’t even had an uptick (although deaths trail reporting of cases, of course).
Here’s an article describing the situation in Israel at present. Right now in the entire country there are 121 hospitalized COVID patients (it doesn’t say whether “from” or “with”) and 61 of them are in serious condition. All but one are over 60, and the other person is close to 60. There’s no information about their state of health otherwise, or their age distribution within that over-60 group. But this is a minuscule portion of the 61,785 Israelis in that age group fully vaccinated and vulnerable, of whom at least 6,179 might be expected to be hospitalized if they were to contract COVID.
Then there’s this:
One month ago, there were just 19 serious cases in the country; Sunday’s figure of 61 is the highest in two months. At its peak in late January, there were more than 1,000 serious cases.
So the caseload is still very low, even comparatively speaking. What’s more – and this is an important part:
The Delta variant is believed to be more successful in bypassing the COVID vaccines than previous strains of the virus. Health Ministry figures released in early July indicated that the Pfizer COVID vaccine is only 64% effective in preventing infection, but it remains 93% effective at preventing hospitalization and serious symptoms.
Some health officials cast doubt on these figures, noting that they were gathered only over a period of a month, and they maintain that the Pfizer vaccine is actually more effective against Delta than claimed. Nevertheless, Pfizer cited data from Israel in seeking authorization from the US Federal Drug Administration for a third booster dose of its vaccine.
Boosters are only planned to be given to people with extra health problems.
So it seems that the vaccine doesn’t protect perfectly, nor did anyone ever say it did. But it protects pretty well, especially against serious COVID. But that doesn’t mean such cases don’t happen in fully vaccinated people. They do and they will. The real question is whether their numbers will increase significantly and especially past the point that is to be expected given the fact that vaccines all have a certain failure rate. So far the numbers are not bad.
Part of the panic about this is that the MSM isn’t doing a good job of explaining the statistics. But what else is new? They have a vested interest in panic, too. And of course the Biden administration and some local authorities are ramping up the “Unvaccinated people are killers!” routine.
From the start COVID has been utterly politicized, which I consider reprehensible. From the start there also has been so much lying and coverup (as well as bona fide confusion) that it becomes harder rather than easier to sort out the wheat from the chaff. Social media and government officials (but I repeat myself) who purport to tell us what is “misinformation” and what is not have utterly failed to earn our trust. So apparently it’s up to us to figure out what the statistics actually mean, and that’s far from easy.
[ADDENDUM: I’ll add that headlines saying something like “COVID cases increase among fully vaccinated people” are confusing and even misleading for many people. Of course such cases are increasing among the fully vaccinated. More people have been fully vaccinated, and as I said in my post, at least 5% of the vaccinated will be susceptible to COVID. So as a greater percentage of the population becomes vaccinated, cases will increase among the vaccinated. But most people don’t think that through, and they conclude that the vaccine isn’t helping them against the new variant.]
Excellent analysis. And I sure agree with your last paragraph.
Typo in paragraph 7 (5%)
Neo, you say death data is 3 weeks old, but some states that I follow, specifically Georgia, updates it data daily. It has seen a 100% increase in cases from 150 to 300 per day; still ridiculously small given the state’s population. But deaths are still quite low after 2 weeks of rising cases.
physicsguy:
I was referring to the Worldometer charts for the USA and for Israel, which lag.
Also, even for states that give daily updates, there’s a natural lag because hospitals, etc., don’t necessarily report the death statistics right away.
Sarah A Rolph:
Thanks, fixed it.
Seasonality.
The word the media seems to care little about. It’s pretty much playing out just like last year only at much, much lower levels.
Kevin Roche at his Healthy Skeptic often referenced at PowerLine had an article that was right on about this but I can’t seem to find it right now.
One of his main points is that in the long run the deaths will return to the same shape as before the vaccine because even a vaccinated over 80 year old is more susceptible to death than an unvaccinated 25 year old.
This Zero Covid is such a evil concept. Look at the countries that have spouted this garbage with Australia and New Zealand at the top of the list. Melbourne is in like their fifth different lockdown and they are real lockdowns.
The British data indicate that the upsurge in infections detected has had little effect on the number dying of the ailment. The India data suggest this will be over by October.
“the vaccine doesn’t protect perfectly, now did anyone ever say it did. But it protects pretty well, especially against serious COVID.”
There had been great worry in Israel of breakthrough of the Indian or Delta variant. Authorities have the power to quarantine two vaccine dosed people who return from abroad.
But the British have superior monitoring of the course and impact of Covid.
For fully vaccinated people, only one in a thousand are hospitalized.
But Delta is really ravaging those with only one shot, where effectiveness in preventing infection is much less, some 36%.
I suspect that many reports of those getting infected mis-report two doses, when really they have had only one. Or they don’t know that protection builds over the two to three weeks after injection, not immediately.
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Expect to hear lots of fear mongering about Delta Variant in SE Asia (It’s going gangbusters in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines). A complicating factor here is that Thailand and VN pretty much escaped Covid completely until this wave, so there are more frail and weak who would have been knocked off by earlier variants still around to be taken this time.
Indonesia is a basket case… as is the Philippines. I look at the Philippines Worldometers graphs and can’t see anything like the expected Gompertz curve each time a wave comes along and just assume that poverty, incompetence, far flung geography, and corruption put some hard limits on their testing and reporting capabilities. Further complicating factor is that these countries relied heavily on Chinese vaccines which don’t seem to work very well.
Wider point is we don’t know whether or not the Delta Variant is more or less deadly… could be roughly as bad as the earlier variants and far fewer deaths in UK because vaccination program has succeeded and/or because earlier variants killed off most of the vulnerable people.
There does seem to be evidence that it’s more transmissible — although even there I wonder if the ‘super highly mega transmissible you can get it from just walking past a person in a store’ official line about Delta is official cover for the fact that both UK and Australia it’s pretty common knowledge that much of the spreading is happening amongst immigrants of the sort less likely to be hygienic and more likely to exhibit swarming behaviours and to think that a ‘close relative’ is their fifth cousin.
In both these countries, so much as breathe this last bit out loud and you will be arrested and prosecuted for ‘Hate Speech’.
Only certainties are that we will be lied to about it and that power hungry people will benefit from it.
Australia appears to be kicking off again. A bit early to be 100% sure, but graph looks like re-run of last Southern Winter time-shifted ~1 week later. Be interesting to watch this one.
What’s bugging me is how many annual cycles of seasonal uptick in respiratory ailments will it take for people to return to some semblance of regular insanity instead of this hysterical freaking out and locking down nonsense.
Zaphod:
The natural history of viruses is that over time there is somewhat of a tendency for newer variants to become more transmissible and less deadly. I have long assumed that’s what would be likely to happen with COVID.
Zaphod,
With regard to seasonality they just act like it is of no importance and are totally shocked when things happen at the same time every year. Australia really is incredible with their lockdowns. Totally insane.
As infuriating as the response was here especially in blue states it was nowhere near as bad as in the UK, Canada, NZ, and Australia (the other eyes).
They now have a ‘pingdemic’ in the UK thanks to contact tracing.
The idiocy doesn’t end it just continues.
@Neo:
Over Time, yes. There is nothing in Creation’s Rule book says that rolling the die cannot throw up a more transmissible and more deadly mutation from time to time… just that historical evidence and theory both suggest that in the long run (you know what they say about *that*) viruses tend to mutate towards more transmissible and less deadly for the well-known evolutionary reason.
We gnats and mayflies live and die in the Short Run.
Still, I see no evidence that Delta Variant is anything particularly deadly. I do think that what is effectively a first wave of Covid in Thailand and VN might be used to hype up its purported deadliness.
@Griffin:
Yup. Takes a special type of doggedly determined idiocy to succeed in politics or public administration in Australia these days. It’s a land of Cringing Men Without Chests and rampant High-Testosterone Karen Sheilas who cannot help acting out. Will not end well.
We’re learning a lot about social media and about Mass Man — and about the types of people who are good at manipulating Mass Man… and none of these accumulating lessons give me much hope at all for Western Society as presently constituted.
As far as I am concerned, this is all about scaring people so that they can be controlled. Same game plan as climate change. And maybe those in charge are hoping people will be less likely to notice the massive and permanent changes being voted in by the Democrats in DC.
Karen Sheilas
how is that different from just Karens?
@avi:
A Karen Sheila is more aggro, strident, and convinced of her moral rightness than any mere Karen. US-Centric types think their woke womenfolk are the worst. I beg to differ.
Back when the world was young, a Sheila was a fun-loving, suntanned good sport. You can see them in old movies, TV commercials, magazines, ephemera, etc. These days one is likely to come equipped with more than a few extra pounds, blue hair, and ‘Problem Specs’.. and a frightfully loud voice and scary accent (loud iffy accent was probably always true).
I’d advise you to avoid Australia in future — especially the bigger cities. Doubly-so if you’re in any way easily discernible. Australia has been importing Afghans, Pakis, Somalis, by the job lot; all the usual suspects likely to make a wise goat back up against the nearest wall.
The Sheeple graze in their pedestrian shopping malls studiously ignoring all the vehicle barriers which have had to be installed to stop imported muzzies mowing people down in cars and trucks. It’s really something.
I stepped out for 30 years and in the blink of an eye it went down the shitter. Made a Rootless Cosmopolitan of me. There’s irony for you 🙂
‘Sheila’: Any young attractive Australian female back in the day. Was already pretty archaic period-slang by the time the over-the-top Crocodile Dundee movie came out.
Zaphod:
If the “Sheila” expression has been archaic for a while, as you say, then I think that Ozzy Man on YouTube has single-handedly revived it.
Neo: thanks for taking the trouble to run the numbers — and to do so right in front of us, where we can follow your logic and do the arithmetic for ourselves.
This sort of basic analysis is desperately needed. In a just world, it would be stated at the beginning of every Presidential press conference.
Neo, here’s your problem:
“the vaccine doesn’t protect perfectly, now did anyone ever say it did. But it protects pretty well, especially against serious COVID.”
…..but There Is No Such Thing as “serious COVID”
Certainly not when actual data is compared to the apocalyptic predictions used to foist theae restrictions on us.
Nowhere in the world have the numbers exceeded tenths of a percent. And nowhere has the young, healthy general population been seriouy affected.
Your reasoning is taking place within the echo chamber. And such hairsplitting – even well intentioned – reinforces the disinformation and distracts from the more sinister dangers/motives in this.
Here in Israel – it is unclear if Bibi and his aides really thought there was a threat. Some in his cabinet tried to express the dangers to the economy and childrwn’s education. But with the media against him and sowing panic, vaccination was the only way to avoid economic and political collapse.
Now it is clear that the Health Ministry and others with their snouts in the Covid gravy train are going to try their best to keep this hustle going. When did you last see a government agency or NGO willingly surrender budget, headcount, or authority?
As in the States the Left here are so extreme on race/identity/sexual immorality that they have no popular standing anymore: scaremongering tricks like this are all they have.
“The natural history of viruses is that over time there is somewhat of a tendency for newer variants to become more transmissible and less deadly. I have long assumed that’s what would be likely to happen with COVID.”
Delta. R0 (transmissibility) maybe double, with CFR (Case Fatality Rate) maybe 1/8-1/10 that of Alpha (original), down in the range of the seasonal flu. Because Delta is more transmissible, it is pushing out the other variants, esp the much more lethal Alpha. This should surprise no one, except for the order of magnitude drop in CFR, and that it took so long for a significant variant to surface.
If this is correct, then the pandemic is all but over in this country. Yes, the infected count may be up a bit. But to the extent that that is a result of Delta pushing out the other variants, and esp Alpha, that is a good thing, not a bad thing. I have seen no evidence yet that surviving Delta (as almost everyone does, who catches it) doesn’t immunize you from the other variants.
Anything else is likely misinformation, being published either out of ignorance, or to maintain power, in the continuing panic.
Neo: Yes I was sarcastic.
I don’t live in fear of Covid as much as some of the results of taking the shot no matter how small the odds of getting dead or seriously ill from it.
I’m a veteran, so this press release gives pause:
(Washington, DC) Judicial Watch announced today that it received 75 pages of records from the Department of Veterans Affairs detailing the adverse reactions veterans had to the COVID-19 vaccines. As of April 2021, Veteran’s Health Services reported 895 serious reactions which included: 20 cardiac arrests, 36 strokes, 15 cases of deep vein thrombosis, 10 heart attacks, and 19 pulmonary embolisms. They also reported over 26,000 less serious reactions. The agency withheld individual report details, citing alleged privacy and related issues.
If the government would promote those treatments known to harmlessly mitigate Covid illness, then the shot would be moot.
BenDavid +1
This should be interesting…if it happens or if any news of it gets out.
But dollars to donuts the DOJ will tell Paul to pound sand and will also turn the tables on him by investigating him for being feloniously mean to someone or other’s dog, cat or cockatoo.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/rand-paul-asks-doj-investigate-fauci-lying-congress
To be sure, Fauci has the full confidence of the WH (and its stooges) precisely because he’s such an accomplished liar.
Just a reminder – approximately Alpha R0=2.7 and CFR=1.9%, Delta R0=6.0 and CFR=.2%-.3%. Common flu CFR=.1%. (R0=reproduction/infectivity rate, CFR=Case Fatality Rate).
This means that Delta is over twice as contagious, while being 1/8 to 1/10 as deadly.
https://tinyurl.com/w67rh4nb
That’s a link to a recent article, in “New Statesman,” entitled “How the UK’s Covid-19 vaccine rollout has dramatically reduced deaths.”
The article isn’t too bad, but it includes a terrific graph that takes about two seconds to read. That’s the highlight. Highly recommended.
But most people don’t think that through, and they conclude that the vaccine isn’t helping them against the new variant.
I’ve come to the conclusion that most people have a binary view of risk. Things are either “safe” or “unsafe” with nothing in between. They are completely unable to comprehend a vaccine effectiveness of 64% or a mask effectiveness of 30% or 60%.
On the plus side, soon much of the world will know the alphabet in Greek.
Next up: epsilon. So E, no big deal. That’s about September
Then in November or thereabouts: zeta. How many people knew Z was not going to be towards the end?
TJ, are you a fellow Rockporter?
Chester Draws:
Almost all Christians; it’s that alpha and omega reference.
It shouldn’t be this hard to understand how the vaccine works, but our betters in the MSM and in government seem especially obtuse. The way a vaccine works is to prepare your immune system to respond to an infectious challenge. When the virus finds a vaccinated person, the virus does its thing and starts to reproduce, but because the vaccine has already primed the immune system, the immune system brings its full response immediately and fights off the infection. Often the response is so quick and complete that the person never knew they were infected (aches, fever, etc. are signs of the immune response, which is why they are common side effects of the vaccine). We (I have a PhD in a biomedical science) call it a subclinical infection. What matters in vaccine effectiveness isn’t the number of positive tests, it’s the number of people who miss work, have to be hospitalized, or die because of the virus, and in this respect, the vaccines are spectacularly effective.
Delta, smelta! It appears that the competent Can Do? virologists have learned nothing, or have learned all they needed; veterinarian in CCP lab dies from monkeypox.
See ace.mu.nu
You see, the CCP is good for you, trains running on time and all that. Can Do!
At this point, the only Greek they’re gonna hafta know is “Whiskey Tango Foxtrot”.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-06-02-vaccine-researcher-admits-big-mistake.html
There have been 32 deaths from Covid – TOTAL – in the last month. Again, that’s a tiny amount and absolutely nothing for anyone to be concerned about.