The COVID curve: apples vs. oranges
One of the many problems with evaluating what’s going on with COVID-19 is that no place on earth is quite like any other place. So one can pick and choose statistics from different areas, depending on what one wishes to prove. And even if a person is trying to be fair and logical, sorting it out is really really hard.
There are a number of articles such as this one claiming lockdowns are irrelevant because the virus seems to follow a similar pattern no matter what is done. There are obvious differences between countries and between states and even between cities, but the patterns of why are not clearly related to social distancing policies.
That doesn’t mean such policies are useless. It simply means we don’t know how important they are, and one of the possibilities is “not very.”
But be very very careful what you choose to compare. Just as an example, to compare Sweden with Michigan (as a recent commenter did) isn’t really a good choice, although it may seem on the surface to be one. After all, Sweden has a population of about 10 million, and so does Michigan. And they’re both kind of cold. And as we know, Sweden has one of the least intrusive social distancing strategies compared to all the other developed countries, and Michigan one of the strictest.
But the two places are very unalike in many ways that matter. Just to take one example, the black population of Sweden is very small (hard to get exact statistics because Sweden doesn’t compile them that way, but here’s a start), whereas the black population of Michigan is large: 13.4% in the state and a whopping 78.6% in the city of Detroit, where most of the COVID cases and deaths are occurring. We already know that for a number of reasons (probably mostly a high number of pre-existing conditions that increase vulnerability), black people are dying in higher percentages from COVID-19 than white people.
And that’s just one difference, but it’s a difference that could make a huge difference.
The population density of Sweden is 64 people per square mile, and for Michigan it’s 177 per square mile. That’s another big difficulty with any attempt to compare Sweden and Michigan.
The better comparison for Sweden is with Norway, which is far more similar – although Swedes and Norwegians might tell you different. You can see that the Swedish death rate per million is 225, whereas in stricter Norway it’s 38. In very strict Michigan, it’s 342. What can we conclude from this about shutdowns and their effectiveness? IMHO, not all that much, although the Sweden/Norway data goes in the direction of indicating they may have some preventive or delaying effect. I think we’ll learn more as time goes on, but I doubt we’ll ever know anywhere near enough to guide us definitively in the future.
Everybody knows that covid-19 is racist and adversely impacts people of color. In NY, Mayor DeBlasio has appointed a commission to investigate the matter.
Ray,
He made hid wife head of the commission.
The NYT headline the day before armegeddon:
“World to end tomorrow. Women and minorities hardest hit.”
Turns out that the flu deaths dropped a whole lot… ie. they been misatributing deaths to make the numbers higher given that the more crisis the more they can do… one politican says his plan will take two years to implement phase 1 of us going back..
i think people are about go back and say let the devil take them we need work..
for sanity not just money… though money is the main…
me? i am having a hard time… kickbacks to indian managers from people from india, tons of workers shipped in for pref hire, recruiters working night shift from india to scalp jobs by finding people (and of course stacking the deck in favor of favorites)..
dying doesnt look bad at all compared to being homeless.
and thats another… they expect a huge surge… having all kinds of talks about it
most depressing are the people who are spending time like the cambridge analytica documentary showed, covincing others to saw faster on the tree branch, without at all looking at what would happen if their nastyness works
There are a number of articles such as this one claiming lockdowns are irrelevant because the virus seems to follow a similar pattern no matter what is done. There are obvious differences between countries and between states and even between cities, but the patterns of why are not clearly related to social distancing policies.
This is true.. the simulation that i put up that kind of slid by any discussion showed that only tracking and locking away people with it mitigated things at all… almost all other methods, mostly because of intermittint mixing like going to get food or having it delivered, would spread it anyway… in pretty much every simulation, the desease ran its course…
as for the other part… its actually pretty easy to see what actually worked or didn’t work as it depended on cultural practices and normed distances of living…
i just participated in a challenge and submitted my point on this to it in hopes that it would be picked and rewarded… but if you want to take a list of different places, and go through what happened you can pretty easily sort out key differences and chart them
Italy… really bad really quick… thats due to the chinese going back and forth and the hug your chinese plan… it put many points of contact… then combine that with the gregariousness of the people in terms of being social, visiting, sitting with each other, and interacting as high.
if you want to analyses the Japanese… they are germaphobes as a culture, they bow, dont shake hands, wear masks to prevent OTHERS from getting sick, their elderly live in isolation… sometimes dying and not being found for months after being mummified as their sense of order had the bills paid automatically…
In the US crowded areas of mixed cultures fared the worst, while rural areas who were very spread out and didnt share physically did better… NY had a chinese area that became one of the worst hit… but it also has a interwoven network of shopping for price that would deliver the condition from one end to the other in a day as people went to stock up and not pay the most. [with the panicking crowding people together causing the biggest starting spike in the early times]
as i pointed out referring to the mask of the red death, sequestering didnt work, we have known that for 100s of years.. man does not live alone… even when they think they do..
but the worst was that now we know it was no worse than the flu… thats the numbers coming out from the latest tests that test if you had it, and show nearly 25% did… meaning we were all walking around sick hiding from what we mostly already had.
and the numbers were made worse as the flu deaths were counted as covid deaths… as well as cold deaths and more… as the numbers tracking all of the others dropped by quite a bit… ie. the labels shifted to blame covid, ramp up the crisis, and slam things.. after all, across all of the west, not just the US the left was faltering badly as people were seeing the fruits of their actions from finances in brexit to importing people that were raping and grooming children, destroying 500 year old festivals, and turning peaceful places into mini war zones…
so it was a collective move… and why not… all these things are linked and coordinated all over the world… what political fru fru hits the US gets mimicked in all the others overnight… that doesnt just happen… the catalyst of things happening in america should not stimulate the same thing in france and britain, and germany… even if they read the idea… ideas dont displace that way unless helped… but they are hidden that way by false explanations of how you read it in A and B copies so that its not coordinated… but it is… as press, and others kick in the same way tuned to their populations as X writes, and twenty Ys pick it up and then 100 Zs do…
one of the scariest things in the documentary on Cambridge Analytica was their describing how this works… how you analyse the culture for the people that are listened to by many other people, and work on them, as they then will disburse the message to others… just as pregnant women can be bombareded with coupons for their speical needs, the same happens over other issues to those who thse things shape their reality and their asurity then gets passed on the way covid gets passed on within a social circle.
how do you think revolutions happen? spontaneously… or by people dotted all through the crowd who know to yell at the same time? with our state no longer protecting us from press owned by foreign countries, and more, is it really a wonder we are confused? do we listen to AP? thats french… do we listen to another as we dont know their owners are the CPP… do we know this set of 100s of trolls are paid from another state to work key websites for influence?
each separately we might, but we dare not link them up into a cogent whole as to whats going on… thats way to scarey and we always avoid it… we do not want to tally up the bill… but regardless, it will come due whether we add it up or not.
California Docs Say Lockdown vs. Non-Lockdown ‘Did Not Produce a Statistically Different Number of Deaths’
https://pjmedia.com/trending/watch-california-docs-say-lockdown-vs-non-lockdown-did-not-produce-a-statistically-different-number-of-deaths
Both doctors understand and support the initial reactions to the COVID-19 outbreak by the federal, state and local governments. It was a novel virus and there was very limited information. However, now they assert that the data is telling them that the disease pattern of COVID-19 is more like the flu. Dr. Erickson phrased it this way, “Millions of cases, a small number of deaths.” He specifically noted that the difference in the number of deaths between Sweden, with limited restrictions, and Norway, which locked down, is not statistically significant.
[snip]
Their data extrapolations, using a method similar to the one the CDC uses for influenza, suggest that death rates for COVID-19 are similar to those for the flu. According to their analysis, both Kern County and the state of California have likely experienced a widespread viral infection. They both agreed this is almost certain in New York as well. Based on their analysis, the death rate varies from 0.03% in California to 0.1% in New York state. This will be confirmed by additional testing finding new cases for the same number of deaths.
In addition to asserting that this is much more comparable to the flu than originally thought, the doctors present additional information to support their point of view. First, they discussed the rise in mental illness and abuse their clinics and local providers are seeing. This includes an increase in child molestation, domestic abuse, alcohol and drug-related emergencies, and mental health diagnoses.
[snip]
Next, they say the current guidelines are not backed by science. Dr. Erickson repeated the finding that COVID-19 can live on plastic for three days. So, when you go to Costco or Home Depot, you pick up needed items that may carry COVID-19. He added that it is because of these fomites, inanimate objects that can carry and transfer disease, it is highly likely COVID-19 would be found if your home or car were sampled.
[snip]
Dr. Erickson then explained that the vast majority of people were dying with COVID-19, not from COVID-19. He said after viewing hundreds of autopsies in his career, people rarely die for one reason. A body that has been weakened by chronic disease is not as able to fight off infection. He compared this to deaths with the flu. Most often it is just one of a number of illnesses a patient is suffering with.
[snip]
Dr. Erickson did hit back at journalists who were challenging his assumptions. At the end of the briefing, he was challenged on why he thought he was smarter than the Dr. Faucis of the world and state health officials. He was clear this was not about being smarter or right. He is using data and his own clinical experience to make these recommendations for his own community and others like them. Essentially pretending everyone is going to be New York is not the correct approach.
He also shot back at reporters who are being paid while their fellow citizens are not. His closing was also a caution worth taking note of:
Who says what’s safe? Are you smart enough to know what is safe for you? Or is it the government gonna tell you what’s safe for you? As soon as they use the word safe, that means control. ‘We know what’s safe for you. You’re too dumb to understand disease. We know what’s safe.’ And so, they are going to use this model for different things. ‘We got a bomb threat from China. Everybody stay in their home for three months.’ They [the government] are using this to see how much of your freedom can they take from you. Will you roll over and stay in your house? And it’s working.
Here is a link to a very well written and thought out argument against the lock downs. The person is not against taking action though.
“Many policies provide public-health benefits in pandemics, such as making facemasks mandatory, cancelling school, and banning large assemblies and long-distance travel. But ordering people to cower in their homes, harassing people for having playdates in the park, and ordering small businesses to close regardless of their hygienic procedures has no demonstrated effectiveness.”
https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/
Qualities of a culture really can’t be measured, but they count for a lot. Sweden is a relatively homogenous culture,which might have a more cooperative attitude about social distancing and other safety measures, as compared to, say, Michigan.
Estoy Listo, everything can be measured… the more homogeneous the culture the easier it is… otherwise you have to block it out, but it can be measured… and with enough accuracy to make a judgment…
some interesting AI stories and how businesses use it to juggle metrics can really really surprise you as to what is and can be measured… even more interesting is in some cases how you measure it..
Take the idea of wearing medical masks… you measure it by per capita use and subtract medical orders… voila… you get a figure and can even have it broken down by age, and locations…
handshakes vs bowing?
The Japanese would admonish you for being sick in public, and they shun disease (and even deformity)…
National Culture (Hofstede’s cultural dimensions)
Geert Hofstede made this simplification when he measured culture at IBM starting in the 1960s. He did surveys of IBM employees around the world to find out how people’s attitudes varied between countries, even when those people worked for the same company.
Power Distance Index (PDI) – how hierarchical is a society
Individualism vs. Collectivism (IDV)
Competitiveness vs. cooperation
Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI)
Long-term vs. short term normative orientation (LTO)
Indulgence vs. restraint (IVR)
One of the big sources for this would be large advertising companies…
they measure culture constantly and try to appeal to it and differences..
in the west we like to see the side of a car in an advertisement..
in japan they more like to see the front..
we are not so different that such cant be measured
and ai can pick things out of data piles without knowing
The Dodger makes a very good point somewhat buried under a wall of text.
Sentiment Analysis is a Big Thing. As of course is Social Network Analysis (glorified Graph Theory). All ‘easily’ automated at massive scale given budget and the will to do so.
Nothing very exciting here apart from the fact that you can make hedge fund billions from it if you get it right.
But the really big thing is completing the feedback loop and doing Sentiment Injection. Do this smart and you can Rule the World.
Artfldgr,
You mention your struggles finding work here and in other posts. Don’t give up! Age discrimination is a real thing in the workforce and it can be very frustrating when you know you have vital skills employers need, yet they do not hire you or give you a chance. But even if you can’t find a decent position doing what you are trained for you can find work (once the lockdown is lifted). It may not pay as well, or challenge you adequately, but there are millions of elderly who need caretakers, children who need tutors… You are needed!
The population density of Sweden is 64 people per square mile, and for Michigan it’s 177 per square mile. That’s another big difficulty with any attempt to compare Sweden and Michigan.
That’s for the entire state of Michigan. Outside of the Detroit metro area, Flint, Lansing, Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo, the rest of the state is relatively sparsely populated. I believe about 40% of the state’s population is in the tri-county Detroit area.
I think the papers are right- the lockdowns don’t make a difference. The heterogeneous results are simply down to the physical differences in the different locations. People, all on their own initiative make the only changes that really have an effect without having to be forced. New York is just a disaster because social distancing simply has less effect there if you don’t shut down the mass transit system, and stop riding in the elevators. In other words, to be like North Dakota, New Yorkers would have had to be shut in their homes for the entire duration of a month, at least. That was never going to be done.
Artfldgr on April 27, 2020 at 7:24 pm said:
….. the simulation that i put up that kind of slid by any discussion showed that only tracking and locking away people with it mitigated things at all… almost all other methods, mostly because of intermittint mixing like going to get food or having it delivered, would spread it anyway… in pretty much every simulation, the desease ran its course…
as for the other part… its actually pretty easy to see what actually worked or didn’t work as it depended on cultural practices and normed distances of living…
i just participated in a challenge and submitted my point on this to it in hopes that it would be picked and rewarded…
* * *
Good points — and good luck with the challenge submission!
Dwayne on April 27, 2020 at 8:18 pm said:
Here is a link to a very well written and thought out argument against the lock downs. The person is not against taking action though.
* * *
Thanks for that link; an excellent article, and the author’s position is cogently argued. Somewhat of a refreshing change to the usual media fare.
The sidebar at Public Discourse also has some other interesting essays, which touch on points raised in the discussions here at Neo’s salon.
I’m exploring these in particular.
https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/03/61609/
The Coronavirus Has Unveiled a Deeper Political Disease
MARCH 23, 2020BY R.J. SNELL
A crisis like a pandemic forces citizens to confront what they hold in common. But the coronavirus has revealed that many, whether boomer or millennial, do not even see themselves as citizens—as participating in and being partially responsible for the common good.
https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62205/
What Do Christians Do in a Plague?
APRIL 12, 2020BY MAGGIE GALLAGHER
I am astonished by how many people think a deadly pandemic is the right time to foment the spirit of rebellion and pick a fight with the government over what many will inevitably see as our right to infect others. That’s what it looks like to our neighbors. They do not see this as a testimony of our unshakable faith, but as evidence of callous unconcern for their lives and the lives of the police, grocery workers, mailmen, health workers, and garbage men with whom we all interact.
https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/03/61691/
Cooperation, Coercion, and the Coronavirus
MARCH 25, 2020BY ANTONY DAVIES AND JAMES R. HARRIGAN
When times become difficult, people come to help each other as a rule. It’s not really a case of our better angels emerging; it’s our regular angels doing what they almost always do when the chips are down.
Uh oh, Neo. You compared Norway and Sweden and have – unwittingly, I am sure – released the internet Kraken!
‘Ten thousand Swedes crept through the weeds,
At the Battle of Copenhagen
Ten thousand Swedes crept through the weeds,
Pursued by one Norwegian.
Hehe. Couldn’t resist.
We can’t say for sure whether the lock down strategy works to contain the spread and severity of the virus, or not. The wide variety in the data clearly indicate what Neo alludes to in the title, so far this is an apples vs. oranges comparison. The lock down plans are different in all these locations being compared. The population composition differs across these areas. The cultural profiles differ too. Add to this that few to no places have completely isolated their populations, presumably allowing the virus to spread in grocery stores, liquor stores, subways, elevators, and so on.
In my state, MA, the percentage of positive tests for the virus has held steady, averaging in the low 20’s. There have been spikes and troughs, but even those don’t correlate with the strictness of the lock down rules.
We just don’t know and haven’t yet seen evidence that it is effective.
“the Sweden/Norway data goes in the direction of indicating they may have some preventive or delaying effect”
That’s the issue: the motivation for the lockdowns was to delay; prevention was seen as futile. So if the risk of overwhelming the hospitals has passed (and perhaps was never as big as feared in most places), at most all we’re doing is delaying some deaths by a few months. At most.
Thank you Rufus, thank you Aesop…
But so far cant get those either… NY requires degrees to teach
The cards are triply stacked, and i am not finding receptive..
Even when i solved the Praetorian AI challenge, they did not put me up on their page of solvers (so i could not leverage that), and cubby holed my past as my future.
One interesting trick that is going on, is people in India are combing the job boards and then pretending to be recruiters for the company, where they then negotiate they have a candidate to skim that persons salary… They also ruin your chances by submitting you to a job you apply without permission! once an employer gets several resumes from different companies trying to skim the job, they just wont look at you even if your the best. and you have no control over this as they do this from another country.
the larger point is that my skills and experience do not matter…
they dont want answers from someone like me
the same way a teacher will overlook a student that always has their hand up to ‘give others a chance’…
I just pray everynight i dont wake up in the morning
then am very depressed if i do… as i mostly got cheated out of everything
and there isnt anything left to tell you the truth and no way to get there from here
ie. there is nothing much to look forward to given things and lack of friends, it only gets worse from this point goingo forwards… i go months without anyone calling to say hi… so no loss if i am not around, no one would notice… so i pray every night…
but thanks guys.. its appreciated…
I’m stunned by the testing results in prisons, which show nearly universal infection but also nearly universal lack of symptoms. We explained the homeless by their being outside, but prisons?
I continue to believe that the elderly(ish) should seriously consider continued lockdown, while everyone else now has enough information to justify going back to normal quickly. Politically, it’s probably necessary to ease back into normal slowly enough that we can track how fast case counts rise, and keep an eye on making sure ICUs don’t get overwhelmed. But I’m honestly not sure the medical evidence supports any such thing.
Medically the best argument probably is to abolish mass transit nationwide, and maybe highrises, too. We know that’s not going to happen, because it would be intuitively obvious to the most casual observer that the costs would outweigh the benefits. Even more important, the costs wouldn’t land on the right people, so ain’t gonna happen.
Artfldgr,
I know the COVID lockdown makes this virtually impossible at the moment, but when things re-open I strongly encourage you to find some social environment where you can be useful. Volunteer at a soup kitchen or homeless shelter for an hour or two everyday. Or a hospital. Or one of the countless charities in NYC. Even if the world of commerce is treating you unfairly there is still tremendous need all around you. It is so important to have a reason to get out of bed each day. Someplace to go where people are expecting you and you feel useful. Do it for those who need help.
You were a virtuoso musician, correct? Maybe there is a conservatory that needs a janitor? I don’t mean that facetiously. Insert yourself somewhere you would like to be, anyway you can, and then see what happens from there.
I don’t know if you’ve read Mark Twain’s Autobiography, but in it he wrote down a suggestion for finding work that I had stumbled onto myself. I recently recommended it to one of my sons. I did a quick google search and here’s a succinct write up of Twain’s proposal.
https://medium.com/@bjmfactory/mark-twains-advice-for-getting-a-job-e41a03a98d48
Artfldgr,
“… no loss if i am not around, no one would notice… “
We would certainly notice!
Look at all the people around you struggling; abuse, drug/alcohol addiction, unemployment, disability, illness… They need you. A friend of mine started doing IT work for a local church. He started out doing it for free, but they found he was so handy they began paying him. His reputation spread by word of mouth and now he does similar work for several not for profits. He’s not earning what he would working in industry, but he’s working, his talents are appreciated and his talents are bringing joy to others.
Texan99,
Personally I really enjoy urban life, but you are correct, it is a lifestyle that is mostly unnecessary in America today. The industrial revolution necessitated a great many people living packed in crowded cities, and almost instantly problems arose; disease, crime, fire… Technological progress has now negated most of those reasons, but people are still attracted to urban centers.
The number of new cases bar chart for Snohomish County, WA is interesting to me. The first case was on 1/29/20. There were a few new cases per day until 3/9/20 when there were eleven new cases. WA locked down on 3/11/20. The new cases kept rising, reaching a peak of 137 new cases on 3/27/20. There was another spike of 131 new cases on 3/31/20. Then the new case rate began a slow decline reaching 12 new cases yesterday. IMO, it shows the results of social distancing quite well.
The chart is here:
https://www.snohd.org/499/COVID-19-Case-Count-Info
It seems to me that the county has reached the level of control where they can now begin to open up businesses if they have the needed testing supplies and case trackers/tracers trained. At yesterday’s Covid-19 briefing at the White House they talked about the huge ramp up in testing capabilities and supplies that have been made in the last month. They claimed we can begin testing millions of people per month. Yet, in yesterday’s address by Governor Inslee he claimed the state has a good supply of tracker/tracers trained but doesn’t have the swabs to do widespread testing. There seems to be a misconnect between the national and state level on the testing issue. Hope that gets worked out soon.
We now have residential construction, limited Boeing shifts, elective surgeries, fishing, hunting, and state parks open. Retail stores may soon be able to open. It’s the restaurants, hairdressers/barbers, nail salons, gyms, mass gatherings at sports/arts events, and other such businesses that will be the hardest to open. Watching Georgia in that respect will be interesting.
I’m not going to let my guard down until there’s a proven treatment or vaccine. Mask, gloves, sanitizer, Lysol wipes, and avoiding crowds will be my choice for the foreseeable future. My wife and I will go out more frequently, but will pick our spots carefully.
I did grocery shopping this morning. Things seem to have become more relaxed. Several people without masks, not the usual shunning and distancing, and more people stopping to chat. However, the store’s shelves are still pretty well picked over especially non-perishable items and cleaning supplies. Traffic on the highways seems to be heavy considering there is so much still shut down. Where are they all going? Fishing, elective surgery, or?
Rufus T. Firefly, i appreciate it, but where were they for 30 years…
been alone without anyone for longer than that… a very isolated existence
and i live in NYC… no one accepts my invitations, no one invites me..
my wife is well regarded… and loved…
not a big deal… church wont pay, they too busy letting the het kids suffer on the street in favor of looking good helping the lgbt… its a very left world here, and i have even been called nasty names…
all my attempts at business led to my partnrs cheating me..
my first lady faked her murder and took the kid…
then the courts said i had no rights… family almost non existent, what does exist does not care to bother. sis didnt come to the wedding, she didnt invite me to hers… didnt speak to me for 25 years, then claimed she was there for me..
My tech ideas are a waste…
my artwork was created for the trash
without connection, there is no way to go forward
without money, there is no way to either…
all my experience has amounted to nothing..
and i have had even more horrid experiences i cant mention
too tired…
but thanks… nice thoughts..
they dont apply…
When do those things (and i have tried) its never that way for me.
Dont get me wrong, i am likeable enough… but just non existent..
always been that way… its why i got so smart… nothing else to do
[PS i was going to restore the stained glass of the church.. they signed a contract.. now they wont let me and so, no money in that… big over 6 fig job and was going to get the money from donations… but the board decided not to abide by their agreement…
oh.. all those celeb photos. they dont get paid, they are all out there, but without money cant get them to pay.. they even use my dads shots without a byline… no cash either…
my partners stole my life savings, and nearly left me homeless but i got hired..
my high speed search chip has no takers after the geneticist played lead the duck till her retired with millions as hte famous schadt of illumina buried my work
on and on]
Norway chose to flatten the curve. That extends their timeline much farther than Sweden’s. So obviously, comparing the death rates is crazy. Sweden is much farther along in achieving herd immunity.
Norway is in the first quarter in fighting the battle. Sweden is in the third. Why in the world would anyone assume that their casualties should be comparable when they are at such very different places on their timelines? Wait to compare the death rates when both have finished the battle.
https://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusives/2020/04/coronavirus-reality-check
“We’ve been stampeded into a regime of social control that is unprecedented in our history. Our economy has been shattered. Ordinary people have been terrorized by death-infused propaganda designed to motivate obedience to the limits on free movement. We have been reduced to life as medical subjects in our condition of self-quarantine. As unemployment numbers skyrocket and Congress spends trillions, the political stakes rise.
The experts, professionals, bureaucrats, and public officials who did this to us have tremendous incentives to close ranks and say, “It is not wise to tell people that the danger was never grave and now has passed.” Sustaining the coronavirus narrative will require many lies. It will be up to us to insist on the truth.”
Artfldgr on April 27, 2020 at 7:24 pm said:
….. the simulation that i put up that kind of slid by any discussion showed that only tracking and locking away people with it mitigated things at all… almost all other methods, mostly because of intermittint mixing like going to get food or having it delivered, would spread it anyway… in pretty much every simulation, the desease ran its course…
* * *
Your simulation seems to be on the same track as this guy’s analysis.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2020/04/28/covid-19-prison-testing-results/#comment-2492028
Matthew M on April 28, 2020 at 11:59 pm said:
Quillette’s Jonathon Kay tries to home in on the transmission of coronavirus in his layman’s analysis of COVID-19 Superspreader Events. Interesting (and hopefully useful) information…
“But even a layperson can see that there is a fairly clear pattern in the most notorious, destructive, and widely reported cases of mass COVID-19 infection—virtually all of which feature forms of human behaviour that permit the direct ballistic delivery of a large-droplet Flüggian payload from face A to face B. If fomites were a major pathway for COVID-19 infection outside of hospitals, old-age residences, and homes, one would expect restaurant cooks, mass-transit ticket handlers, and FedEx delivery workers to be at the center of major clusters. They’re not. If small-droplet airborne concentrations in unventilated spaces were a common vector for COVID-19 transmission (as with measles, for instance), one would expect whole office buildings to become mass-infection hot spots. That doesn’t seem to have happened.”
No reason to shut down every business in America as if they were all a NYC subway.
“Medically the best argument probably is to abolish mass transit nationwide, and maybe highrises, too. We know that’s not going to happen, because it would be intuitively obvious to the most casual observer that the costs would outweigh the benefits. Even more important, the costs wouldn’t land on the right people, so ain’t gonna happen.“-Texan99
Hah.
Got that right.
Just wondering, though: is the payoff to the Democrats of destroying the economy (or continuing to do so while Republicans go back to work), just to spoil Trump’s chances of re-election, really worth the indirect costs to them?
They have investment portfolios going in the tank too, don’t they? Favorite shops and eateries closed? If not among those with $25K fridges for their ice cream, they still have to buy toilet paper and hamburger.
Have they never counted the cost to themselves, or do the leaders genuinely not care about the suffering of their party minions?