It’s mighty early to talk about 2024, but…
There are members of Congress who also have caught my eye – such as Elise Stefanik, who certainly isn’t an old man, if the GOP wants to try to get into the identity politics game. Same for Haley, of course.
And I utterly refuse to start an “Election 2024” category for this post.
It’s not too early to say that we look to be spoiled for choices. What I hear from the opposition is “AOC.” So we’re lucky there, too. Thankfully popcorn is cheap.
It is an interesting question since a Pence candidacy will, in my estimation, really bring out the long knives. Even beyond what we’ve seen with Trump. Cruz may have acquitted himself well intellectually, so but not so hot in terms of presentation. And he’s not a minority … Oh, wait. He’s one of those “white” Hispanics isn’t he? (sarc)
It’s not just popcorn that’s cheap. Popcorn *machines* have really come down in price lately, too.
Like Neo, I decline to get worked up about 2024. Let’s get through 2020 and the possible violent aftermath first.
Haley/Stefanik would be a cool ticket!
…long knives…
TommyJay: Rs vs Rs or Ds vs Rs?
Haley/Stefanik WOULD be cool! Toughness without the immaturity.
“long knives”
I will leave TommyJay to discuss what was meant, but I agree, and my reasons are that the Ds really inordinately seem to have it in for Pence. As we’ve observed, D’s have a hatred for anyone who professes any sort of Christian belief, seemingly assuming that all such people live in the 7th century and want to kill gays and treat women horribly. (And yes, they do this while completely refusing to accept that while mainstream Christianity grew up several centuries ago, Islam is still there, trapped forever by its inherent nature.)
If Trump were suddenly not in the picture, fully expect D’s and their pawns to howl and scream and stomp 24/7 about the Christian theocracy that Pence will be forcing on us any second now.
It’s a longstanding lefty obsession. They already equate having conservative political beliefs with being a religious nut, and by “religious nut” they mean specifically and only Christians.
I refuse to consider this until at least early 2022. But if I did, all those folks you mention have proven themselves worthy. 😉
Pence won’t run. Who will, well 2024 is a long way off. The Dems have the best chance to win after 8 yr of Rep. But, if AOC is the nominee, the Rep. have a better chance.
O f course Pence will run! Why wouldn’t he? He’ll get Trump’s endorsement, too, BTW. Pence-Hayley in 2024 and 2028, Hayley and Tim Scott or Tom Cotton in 2032,2036. USW.
If I had to guess, it will be Pence/Hayley in 2024. But let’s get through 2020 first shall we?
Barring unexpected circumstance, I think it certain that Pence will be the 2024 Republican nominee. I suspect that Pence is a RINO and if so, he will have the full support of the GOPe. As Trump’s VP he’ll also have the support of many of Trump’s supporters, just as Bush I did after Reagan.
Yes, the MSM and dems will demonize Pence as a Christian fanatic. He may ride Trump’s rep to election as Pres. in 2024 but after 4 years of demonization… I’m doubtful that he could win reelection. Especially, if he is a RINO since he will lose Trump’s supporters as he reveals his true nature.
Neither Nikki Haley nor Ted Cruz are natural born US citizens. You know, just as none of Trump’s children are, and as Obama is not.
I’m thinking Mike Pompeo.
What makes one think vice-President Pence is a RINO?
Based on his governance of next-door neighbor ( to me ) Indiana he seems very true Republican.
I’m pretty sure Pence is an establishment stooge and thus I will not be supporting him should he choose to run.
I admit of course that Geoffrey Britain may well be correct, but I doubt it. I suspect Pence won’t run.
If he does, as an establishment stooge, I expect he’ll go back to shoveling the old Bush-era shinola that put the party on a well-deserved path to oblivion but kept the interests of the wealthy GOP donor class well represented.
This won’t wash, even if he attempts to dress it up in some Trumpian verbiage. I further suspect Pence is smart enough to know this, which is one reason why he won’t run.
The key problem the GOP establishment has is that rank-and-file Republicans hate its ****ing guts. I can’t succinctly express just how much loathing and contempt I have for these people, and I know I shouldn’t try. Other Trump-supporting GOP-voting people I know feel roughly the same way, if perhaps not as strongly.
Thus, any candidate tainted by association with the usual suspects of the gop just isn’t going to win the nomination. Period.
My guess, now, years early, is perhaps Jim DeSantis or Greg Abbott, the governors of Florida and Texas respectively. I might be spelling these names wrong, but it’s too early in the cycle for me to care. I can see Ted Cruz doing well again, but at this point I can’t see him winning the nomination or the election, especially if these guys run.
Time will tell.
KyndyllG expressed my sentiment perfectly.
I read up on Pence a tiny bit. I had assumed he was a very religious man, but he purportedly calls himself a born again Christian. (I didn’t cross reference 4 different articles.)
KyndyllG predicted it. They (including a few wealthy R’s) will claim that a President Pence would create a Christian theocracy. Just imagine. Non-Christians will be herded into internment camps where they will be forced to do things like pay for their own abortions.
As to whether Pence is a hard-core GOPe pol or if he will run, I couldn’t say. I’d guess he will want to run unless the polling for him is awful, which is very possible.
Ilion,
I agree with you that Ted Cruz (also Rubio and Jindal) is not a “natural born citizen”*, but I’m unaware of a bar to Pres. Trump’s children. I would welcome enlightenment.
*Sen. Cruz was not born on American soil. Rubio’s and Jindal’s parents were not citizens at the time of the gentlemen’s births.
For some of us, who take de Vattel seriously, the President must satisfy both of those criteria.
Nobody but ignoramuses is claiming that the President isn’t eligible because his mother was not a natural born citizen! (Somebody levelled this ignorant allegation against Mr. Trump’s eligibility.)
I will point out that in 2008, what got everybody foaming at the mouth was the question of Obama’s birthplace. Few took seriously the fact that he couldn’t claim citizenship inherited from his parents (Stanley Ann too young to pass hers on; Obama Sr. not a citizen in any sense). Yet in 2016 the fact that Cruz was NOT born on American soil was considered a “so-what,” completely irrelevant issue. “So what? His mother was American,” went the argument. (Actually, that takes some digging to work out, plus some legal knowledge that I don’t have.) But in 2016, nobody cared about the issue of inherited citizenship in the case of Rubio and Jindal.
Put these two facts about “eligibility” as viewed in 2015-2016 together, and what you get is a nullity. As long as somebody can claim citizenship via the 14th Amendment as applied by SCOTUS, he’s eligible.
Including the babies of mamas from all over the world, China, Latin America, Russia, and everywhere else almost, who came here specifically so that their children could claim American citizenship.
IMO, of course, Walter Jacobsen to the contrary.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2013/09/natural-born-citizens-marco-rubio-bobby-jindal-ted-cruz/
But Prof. Jacobson’s article is thoughtful, has good points, discusses both of the possible criteria, and is well worth reading. Really, his argument fails only for those of us who believe that you have to look at source materials from the Founding Era, plus history of the times in general, to try to figure what what was the Framers’ intent (and that “intent” is no longer admitted in the best Originalist parlors; nowadays, it’s all “public meaning,” as though the same word isn’t taken differently by different people, depending, for instance, on their native region. My Honey and I once got into a knock-down drag-out over the meaning of “rationalization,” as an example not depending on regional differences).
There is one other sticky point, to my mind, and that is that I wonder if the Framers purposely refrained from spelling out the criteria for Presidential eligibility. It does seem to me that in some cases they left some “wiggle room” for later persons or generations to decide.
Of course, that’s my opinion; as they say, YMMV.
What’s this stuff about????? I thought we were dreaming of Trump 3200, 3204, 3208 . . . .
Trump hasn’t yet won 2020, with a big recession still “due” and possible (20% likely?). I’m now up to 75% Trump wins re-election, so, ok, 2024 — some other papers are talking about it.
I’d guess Pence runs for the nomination, but it is contested, and somebody else who is less elitist / GOPe friendly gets the nomination.
Maybe Pompeo?
Yes, maybe Haley, married, 2 kids, former gov. of S. Carolina; I like her quite a bit. Cruz will likely run again, if he’s not on the Supreme Court; he was my pick over Trump in 2016, I like that he’s so smart.
Crenshaw? (cool eye patch, smart guy).
Some current Rep governor?
Lots of folk are ALREADY tired of 2020, and it’s only 3 Jan!
Rich & peaceful world problems. After the Best Decade in Human History.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/12/weve-just-had-the-best-decade-in-human-history-seriously/
You named my two favorites, and Jim Jordan has risen on my list of preferences.
Unfortunately, the country will probably be tired of a Republican after 8 years of Trump and elect a Dem. Check recent election history. We tend to swing back and forth.
Doug – we have indeed been doing 8 and out, but I think it is because the parties themselves are so bad at reacting to popular concerns. GWB took Reagan’s third term, but only one; and Hillary was supposed to take Obama’s.
Trump just did a game-changer; whether that will tank his re-election or cement it is up for grabs.
I do think that he knows more about popular response to foreign entanglements than any of the Dems or most GOP past-elites do; and he has wooed the troops (authentically, not cynically) from Day One, to the point that the boots-on-the-ground will walk through hellfire missiles for him.
Dan Crenshaw, although possibly still too young.
Reading Twitchy so you don’t have to….
https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2020/01/02/say-what-charles-payne-notices-something-very-disturbing-about-the-top-occupation-donating-to-bernie-sanders/
Don, Jr.
Ammo Grrrl’s Friday post today was about the snotty snobs of the elites, left and right.
A commenter linked this post.
This is how we got Trump.
It may still be relevant.
https://americanhandgunner.com/guncrank-diaries/the-sun-came-up/
2024? Jeb Bush vs. Chelsey Clinton, the battle of the dynasties.