China gives in (a little bit) to Hong Kong protestors
But it may be too little too late to quell the anger and the desire for more liberty.
Remember? The Hong Kong protests were originally (seemingly) about extradition:
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said Wednesday that the government would withdraw a contentious extradition bill that ignited months of protests in the city, moving to quell the worst political crisis since the former British colony returned to Chinese control 22 years ago.
The move eliminates a major objection among protesters, but it was unclear if it would be enough to bring an end to intensifying demonstrations, which are now driven by multiple grievances with the government.
I’m fairly sure they were always “driven by multiple grievances with the government.”
Lam and others might do well to study American history, although of course Hong Kong and China represent a very different culture and tradition from that of the US. But I seem to recall that the American Revolution—our own war of independence from Britain–was sparked originally by protests over a tax law. However, it was probably also “driven by multiple grievances with the government.”
What’s more, some of the Hong Kong protestors have been explicitly evoking comparisons to the US:
The protests that have engulfed Hong Kong have morphed into cries for full democracy, something that has to be Beijing’s worst nightmare. As Austin Bay, citing the reporting of Michael Yon on the ground in Hong Kong, has noted., the protests have moved well into the realm of civil unrest. Anecdotally, the whole world has seen how they have featured American flags, the singing of The Star-Spangled Banner, and signs calling for a Second Amendment…
There’s a feeling a Rubicon has been crossed, a bridge has been burned.
It really depends on two things: how ruthless China is willing to be, and how far and deep the feeling of rebellion and the desire for more liberty goes. The feeling may be spreading—at least a little—to mainland China:
Chinese citizens have been caught sneaking over the border into Hong Kong for no other reason than to join the protests. The impact of the protests has already spread — far into the Chinese interior and into Taiwan…
Lam's formal withdrawal of the extradition bill will not placate #HongKong, but it could embolden people in #China to act on their own grievances. #XiJinping should now expect things to go badly for him everywhere. https://t.co/umg2k1Zni0
— Gordon G. Chang (@GordonGChang) September 4, 2019
In that Twitter thread, however, several participants point out that Lam merely made a motion to withdraw the bill and that it hasn’t been withdrawn yet. They think this is just a bluff to calm the protestors. For example, see “Eric” below:
She only brings the withdrawal bill to legislative Council to debate and vote. If the pro-CCP legco members vote down it, the extradition bill will remain.
— Eric (@erichkho1) September 4, 2019
I am not optimistic for the people of Hong Kong, and even less so for the people of China. But I hope I’m wrong.
There are reports that mainland Chinese are sneaking into Hong Kong to join the demonstrations. The CCP may have waited too long and will lose control. Some mainland Chinese resent the freedom of Hong Kong.
This is what some of my Mainland Chinese friends tell me.
Hong Kong is a Special Administrative Region of China. Together with Macau, it enjoys a very high level of autonomy. It has a completely different legal system from China. There are freedoms people in Hong Kong enjoy that don’t exist in the Mainland.
Sounds a little envious to me.
It occurs to me that the tactics and techniques of authoritarian regimes for repression have far exceeded the tactics available to popular rebellions. These conflicts have become more asymmetrical than ever.
The leaders of popular rebellions need to rethink their basic strategy and tactics. It took the invention of the tank to break the deadlock of trench warfare. Defeating entrenched dictators is going to require a new weapon.
Hungary 1956. Compare & contrast.
Yep, American flags (and the British Union Jack) have been seen waving among the crowds in Hong Kong; just like the “Goddess of Democracy” was seen in Tian An Men in 1989.
Both symbols have to irk the Chinese Communist leaders to no end.
Neo, you are quite right in that the extradition bill was just the spark – their grievances are many and have been building for years now.
As one who lived for many years in East Asia, I truly hope for all the best for Hong Kongers. And, I do believe that they are not ones to take things lying down.
Let’s not forget:
First; Hong Kongers lived through British rule as second class citizens; they didn’t have democracy under the British; but, they did have the rule of law and they used that rule of law to their benefit.
Second, it was a while ago, however, they lived through the Japanese occupation; quite brutal with public beheadings and such.
Third, many of those who are elderly in Hong Kong are, themselves, refugees from China. They know firsthand what the true nature of communism is and their children have learned it from them.
And, lastly, all Hong Kongers are exposed to the wider world. They don’t have to depend on the state-run news media for information. Many study overseas in the UK and US, and unlike their US counterparts, they learn from that education and take it back to Hong Kong. (seriously, could an American or UK crowd of college students pulled off a group singing of “Do You Hear the People Sing” they way Hong Kongers did?)
I have faith in Hong Kongers, after all, they took a small island off the southeast coast of China with no natural resources and over the decades turned it into one of the world’s major financial centers. So, they know what they are up against and they will do well.
Oh, and one last thing – we have Trump as President. I don’t see him giving in to China just yet. (I see his offer to buy Greenland, not as a joke, but, as a way of telling Russia and China to stay away)
https://strategypage.com/on_point/20190903203958.aspx
Yon’s email began: “I’ve been in more than 40 protests so far and can say with certainty that the mood becomes more violent week by week.”
* * *
This looks a lot like the beginning of the Yellow Vests in France, and the Arab Spring and Iran’s Green Rebellion — all of which seem to have been suppressed.
How long did it take for the British Colonies to finally move from protests to revolutionary war, and the French as well?
I picked these up at Treehouse earlier this week.
Beware of auto-play on the first one; the Les Mis song is embedded in the embedded Tweet.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hong-kong-students-do-you-hear-the-people-sing_n_5d6f224de4b0110804566fb7
https://www.broadwayworld.com/article/VIDEO-Protesters-in-Hong-Kong-Sing-Do-You-Hear-The-People-Sing-From-LES-MISERABLES-20190812
The Hong Kong populace isn’t just referencing the USA, or France, of course.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/hong-kong-protesters-tie-xis-hands-with-baltic-anti-soviet-human-chain
I wonder what other examples will come out of their knowledge of history?
These protesters have zero chance.
In Shanghai we are just at the tail end of a very peculiar strike hard campaign. It’s peculiar because of just the huge number of propaganda banners. Walking to the subway, I used to pass at least twenty. Very few people on the mainland sympathize with them. They aren’t the sort of people that engender much sympathy, I’m afraid.
A lot of mainlanders are surprised, I think, that it has lasted this long. They are generally perplexed by the level of animosity, particularly now that some secondary and university students have refused to attend classes.
That said, you lot have probably seen more coverage. All I see is what I read in the Times or the Telegraph. Most US papers are blocked.
I really doubt they will get much sympathy. Hong Kongers have really done their level best over the decades to alienate mainlanders. Frankly, they’re delusional. And if their bullshit results in unrest here in Shanghai. It would be difficult for me to forgive them. They’re so blasé about asking young people to sacrifice themselves. It’s disgusting.
Dex I agree the Hongkie’s have alienated the mainlanders in general so they wont get much sympathy if the government cracks down.
But the problem is the government trying to use force to crack down on Hong Kong. Hong Kong is not Tiananmen with very different type of terrain. Whats worse is there is no central group of protesters to surround with your tanks. Any attempt to suppress the riots and situation will be tough and whats worse with the mood on the ground of the Hongkie’s getting more and more willing to use violence there is a chance that whatever force the government sends will be hurt badly and gets pushed back.
Think of the level of damage to the CPC reputation both on the local and international level if the troops the send into Hong Kong gets pushed out. So they have a delicate balancing act whereby the situation has to be calmed down without looking like they are giving too much to the protesters.
I know the general mood of mainlander’s is to just cut the bridges and leave Hong Kong alone. But what happens if by being cut off the Hongkie’s overthrow their local civil government elect their own and decide to succeed from the mainland? Then its back to sending troops and this time with an even worse political situation than before to top it off.
Dex — I can understand why mainlanders dislike Hong Kongers — they have a little bit of freedom that the mainlanders don’t have, and of course that breeds resentment. But the protestors in Hong Kong are not asking other people to sacrifice anything they’re not willing to sacrifice themselves, including their lives.
Of course, you are right that when it gets angry enough, the government will squash Hong Kong like a bug. But that doesn’t mean this is over. The bosses of the Soviet Union thought they could suppress dissent forever, too, and we all know how that turned out.
Ponder this: every Chinese with money is trying to get into the US. Those with a lot of money, on an investor visa or by getting their kid in as a student, having him or her get a green card, then immigrating under family unification. Those with only enough money to pay a smuggler or buy an airline ticket are getting into the US by the hundreds, or maybe the thousands, in cargo containers or by overstaying their tourist visas. There are “birth hotels” here where Chinese women come to have US citizen babies. That doesn’t show a lot of confidence in the Chinese Communist way of life.
The protests in Hong Kong will be suppressed, that is certain. But they won’t be the end of protest.
One thing everyone of you should know about the situation in Hong Kong is that there is an element of Ethnic conflict in the mix. Remember Hong Kong is pretty much Cantonese which has a history of conflict with another Chinese Ethnic group the Hakka.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punti%E2%80%93Hakka_Clan_Wars
If you click on the wiki link on the Hakka people you’ll note a sentence whereby over half the Standing Committee “Ruling Party” of the CPC is Hakka.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hakka_people#cite_note-Erbaugh937-9
Xi Jinping himself has close Hakka Ties.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/The-kingmaker-clan-behind-Xi-Jinping
http://www.china.org.cn/english/4344.htm
Plus the beginning of rise of Anti-Mainland sentiments in Hong Kong started around the same time Xi took power in 2012.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-16941652
It’s complicated but basically since the rise of Xi Jinping the mainland’s government support of Hong Kong in political and economic has been as you can all see as the result of the riots been worse and worse culminating in what we see today.
I’m an expat in Hong Kong and freely admit to a bias toward Hong Kong people’s views in this matter.
Dex has thrown his lot in with the mainlanders and should do likewise re his obvious bias. And frankly there is a tendency amongst westerners who go to China and make a bit of money to get mightily into the whole ‘CCP made the high speed trains run on time’ + ‘Oh, look… shiny skyscrapers!’ thing — which is certainly true… altho I think we’ve heard something similar before. Frankly, 70% of HK’ers don’t give a flying #@#$ what any mainlander or any westerner married to a mainlander or any westerner cleaning it up in China thinks about the price of 10,000 year old eggs or anything else.
As for Hong Kong people being arrogant and not liking Mainlanders… I’d point out that in 1989 — a topic I’d recommend Dex bring up with his work colleagues on tea break since Shanghainese are such nice and reasonable people — Hong Kong people worked overtime to spirit people out of China on various ratlines. The thing about Hong Kong people is they are mostly descendants of people who GTFO of China to get away from the CCP. They know what they are dealing with and don’t delude themselves.
There is also the small matter of my actually having lived in the place (for a long time now: pre- and post 1997) and actually in all modesty rather deeply grokking what is pissing off Hong Kong people.
A few initial points:
1) Western observers are not going to get a good understanding of what is happening here by reading blather/guff written by their favourite left or right wing twitter / blogger gurus. Local conditions and gripes don’t fit so neatly into cookie cutter category analogies from our own western cultural wars underway at present — although there are *some* parallels.
2) Virtually *every* western / western educated English language commentator on the ground in Hong Kong is your typical progressive / anti-fa type. Do NOT assume that Hong Kong protesters are aligned with what their online English language supporters are saying. Most locals do not give a flying you-know-what about intersectionality, othering, and all the other nonsense.
OK, So what are some of the things that are pissing off Hong Kong people?
a) Obviously they don’t want to be extradited to China on trumped up charges. If I have to explain why this is a bad idea to anyone, said anyone needs to go bang head against wall. If anyone thinks that CCP legal system won’t trump up charges to get its hand on anyone they want, go bang head against wall please… and google about *kidnapping* of people from booksellers to billionaires from Hong Kong and spiriting of same across border into China proper. Already been happening… and we don’t want it dressed up in the legal niceties, thank you very much.
(Rest of the several gripes I’m going to mention here are directed more at the HKSAR government and its associated crony elites. Many of the issues are more or less *local*:
a) Demographic Destruction of Hong Kong People — Since the 1984 Joint Declaration (not since 1997, mind you), China exercises the right to send 150 mainland immigrants per DAY to Hong Kong. Hong Kong Government has NO say over who these people are. These people may be ‘Chinese’ but they are not Hong Kong people, and do not have the same cultural values or mental firmware/software. In many cases they are not even native Cantonese speakers. Now I realise that many of the readers of this blog are what others would derisively refer to as ‘Civic Nationalists’… but better believe that people DO care about being around their own sorts and don’t take kindly to a bunch of Others showing up and speaking Mandarin (or worse some god-forsaken Fujianese variant). You won’t hear or read much about this in media because sounds too much like Blut und Boden and I am obviously an evil Nazi for even suggesting that people might not like being swamped by aliens. But it’s still true.
b) Property market — Local Hong Kong Govt has colluded with property tycoons to drive up the price of land and housing to highest in the world. To the extent of shutting down Virtually no-one can afford to buy property. Grown adults have to live with their parents. Think what this does to the mentality of young people — especially young guys. Basically they’re not gonna get laid, let alone be able to marry and HAVE CHILDREN. Many of them think that this is partly deliberate policy to get rid of independent-thinking Hong Kong people: Make it almost impossible to reproduce at replacement rate + bring in 150 mainlanders a day who magically seem to get priority access to what little new public housing is being built. Not a recipe for social harmony.
3) Increasing Social Stratification / Pulling up of the Ladder / Elites Decoupling from Rest of the Population — This is something we see plenty of in the West now, so should be easy to comprehend. Basically Hong Kong is now run by a self-perpetuating crony elite which sucks up to CCP and tells them what they want to hear whilst being blissfully disconnected to reality on the ground. These fsckers literally live on the Peak in free housing with servants and get chauffeured around in Audis — never take the subway or catch a bus and have NO idea how ordinary people live. They send their children (they can afford to have more than one child — unlike regular locals) to international schools or overseas schools and don’t have to contend with the Dickensian local education system.
I could go on with this rant for pages. I won’t.
As for what happens next:
Hong Kong people know well what is likely to be coming from the CCP. At this point most of them don’t care and would prefer to see all the masks off and a reckoning. At least in the aftermath, some of the egregious local abuses would be righted as the CCP tried to make itself look like Firm but Generous Big Daddy.
There is plenty more – wheels within wheels and calculations about this and that, but ultimately nobody really gives a damn at this stage. They protested about other stuff in 2014 and the government then spent the next 4 years prosecuting peaceful demonstrators and giving some quite long jail terms. There are no illusions about what would happen if they stop protesting now. So why stop? These things take on a logic all of their own once they get rolling.
Summary:
Alien Invasion, coupled to:
Demographic Death Spiral — Read David Goldman on what this does to the mood of affected populations.
Disconnected Crony Elites Indifferent to General Population’s Daily Realities
Most Incredibly Evil Murderous Entity By Bodycount in Human History (CCP) attempting to further extend its tentacles into daily life here — Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back.
Things won’t end well, in all probability.
Yes, one of my usual semi-coherent rants. But there’s meat in there for anyone who wishes to investigate further. Again, looking at it through a single idealogical lens probably won’t have much explanatory power.
PS: Gordon Chang is a bit of a dick. I mean I instinctively like Chinese dissidents and all that, but this guy is just a Think Tank Parasite at this stage. He’s been predicting that the sky is gonna fall for decades now. One day it will…then he’ll be dancing around doing his victory jig. Good for him. But useless as a source of any insights about anything likely to happen today or tomorrow.
Zaphod: Many thanks!
China is going to absorb HK and Taiwan, period (Macau was first). The only question is when. This is a major, major plank of the CCP.
I’ve put the question to my wife’s Beijing family – nice, urbane folk . . . HK and Taiwan are not negotiable. When I ask ‘why not ask the Taiwanese what they want?’, the response is something about them being part of the family and in China family is paramount, and, of course, they point out our civil war where we fought a war to keep the nation together. This, even though Taiwan was never family all that close.
M Williams:
How nice and urbane are they when you drop stuff like “That Dalai Lama seems like a decent, harmless old dude.”?
The thing about Hong Kong and Taiwan is that the majority of the population of both these places don’t want to be part of China and sure as hell don’t want to be ruled by the evil CCP. They’re happy for the PRC to be the PRC and don’t really want to attempt to change anything there. That’s futile.
Nobody in Hong Kong expects that they can become independent in any way. All they want is the high degree of autonomy that was promised for 50 years… and which they have not been given. In a nutshell, they just want to be left the #$%@ alone to be who they are. China can fly their flag over the place and preen and posture however it likes, just #@##ing don’t @#$@ with our daily lives and we don’t give a damn what noises u make.
Which brings us by a commodious vicus of recirculation back around to the Melian Dialogue as history rhymes yet again. Things won’t end well. Probably neither for Taiwan also. That doesn’t mean that people should just go quietly into that ungood night.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/09/speaking_of_family_separations_chicoms_remove_hong_kong_protestor_kids_from_their_parents.html
Yeah… They pulled this put the kid in reform school trick back during the 2014 Occupy Hong Kong Protests too.
On a scale of 1-10 Establishment / CCP dirty tricks, this probably only rates a 3… although most unpleasant for the individuals concerned.
Magistrates are glorified civil servants and more likely to be a bit Vicar of Brayish in their outlook than proper judges.
Activists are trying for a higher court ruling today to get this quashed. Let’s hope it goes well for the kids.
(Trigger warning for Dex)
https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2019/sep/04/hong-kong-students-sing-les-miserables-song-instead-of-national-anthem-video?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&sfns=mo#Echobox=1567587441
Asia’s Finest winning hearts and minds:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIau2kwxzZA
Your trigger warning be damned. There is no point having these people die for something they cannot and will not accomplish. I have lived in this country ten years.
My point was made to address the claim that somehow this will spread to the mainland. It won’t. The fact that you immediately resort to attacking mainlanders in your reply — and those of us that live on the mainland — shows why your cause has and will have such limited appeal.
These people are going to be crushed. Encouraging them whilst you enjoy the safety afforded by a foreign passport isn’t exactly heroic. This is not a movie. These people will get no meaningful help from Western countries. Just look at Syria. And then when it happens you and your lot will pat yourselves on the back and change your profile pics. And talk about how you stood in solidarity with them. What a bunch of crock. They won’t even being given right of abode in the UK.
What I am against is posturing by people that have no skin in the game. As you live there, and as Chang has a connection to the region, you are certainly entitled to your opinions. I will not be replying to this thread again as my internet service was interrupted during my last attempt.
Last sentence of Dex’s reply above says it all. In Soviet China Internet Searches You.
This is interesting:
https://qz.com/1702455/chinas-hong-kong-narrative-is-confusing-its-own-people/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Let’s be clear Dex. I have no connection to China the country. My great great grandfather migrated to Malaysia a long time ago and our roots run deeper in Malaysia than China. I worked in Shanghai and Dalian for months while I was younger but that is it.
I am analyzing and trying to give a neutral perspective based on the facts as things stand. Which is putting down Hong Kong by military force is not in the best interest of the CCP because it causes international condemnation and trade issues in delicate economic time.
But at the same time due to the terrain and situation in Hong Kong there is a good chance that army troop sent in to do urban riot suppression will fail, the opposite might happen whereby the Hongkies might fight back with enough violent force any troops sent in will suffer heavy casualties.
Look up the “Battle of Grozny” to understand what I mean.
The military solution might succeed but it will damage the PLA badly in both reputation and moral. The central CCP party and the PLA high command knows that, thus they posture but do not go in. The leaked recordings from Carrie Lam shows that the central government is aware of the danger of a military solution and will not use it.
Now all that is left is to walk the delicate balance of quieting things down without making Hong Kong succeed from the mainland, while at the same time not appearing weak to the rest of world. No easy choices.
Beijing must de-escalate the Hong Kong crisis. If the regime resorts to force and kills hundreds, if not thousands, of Hong Kong citizens, President Donald Trump will use that heinous act to unite the world against communist China.
“On Point: Hong Kong Moves From Protests to Civil Unrest As China Threatens Intervention”
https://strategypage.com/on_point/20190903203958.aspx
I hope so, though historically communists haven’t had a problem with brutally putting down local revolts. Nor have they paid much of a price, as far as I can see.
I guess what makes Hong Kong different is the 1984 treaty assuring HK’s autonomy until 1947 (though what happens then?), HK’s economic strength and China’s current economic weakness.
I appreciate reading those here who have greater knowledge.
“until 1947” -> “until 2047”
This is what happens when capitalism joins with communism.
Be warned, America, the next time government tries to “Regulate” or counter private corporations like Facebook. It’s all part of the con. It’s about as effective as the Nazis regulating private industries.
Due to celestial mechanics and the Divine Fate of Mankind, various dictatorship level economies and energies are being put out in the open like cockroaches. This will necessitate a “struggle” or period of “tribulation”, which may or may not involve wars and genocides. But things will recover as the New Race/Age will be advent.
Golden Age was often translated from Greek texts, although many sources claim it was a mistranslation and Age would be better used in context back then as Race. The Golden Race of Chinese cultivators and Indian super men (Aryans and what not).
If anyone in Hong Kong wants to access the Godhead, have them send a msg to me where I can see it.
If they can last until 2021, reinforcements will be here. If they cannot last until then… well they can always request for a special mercy commission.
huxley on September 5, 2019 at 10:20 am said:
…historically communists haven’t had a problem with brutally putting down local revolts. Nor have they paid much of a price, as far as I can see.
* * *
I also have no especial expertise on China, but I have read much history and politics, and another difference in addition to those you cite is that Hong Kong is not buried in the interior of China, so there is easier access to defenders and supplies.
Additional points in their favor are the number of kinship and business relationships around the world, and the pre-existing sympathy for their situation in the West (not really applicable to Russian and mainland China revolutionaries).
From Zaphod’s link this morning:
The brackets are in the original article, but they easily invite the substitution of other nouns.