Trump’s tariffs and Mexico: the Deal
I recently wrote this post about Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico, and the condemnation of them. In it I said:
Regarding those tariffs and all the criticism thereof—I’m not saying tariffs are a good idea to actually implement, but I was under the impression that at the moment they are a bargaining chip, an opening bid in a complex negotiation. Isn’t that how these things tend to work? The tariff proposal (or actual tariffs, if they are implemented) may not be successful, but so far isn’t this one of those Art of the Deal things? I thought that was glaringly obvious.
Glaringly obvious that was the intent and the plan, anyway, to not have to actually implement the tariffs but to use them to change Mexico’s defiance into cooperation on illegal immigrants, particularly those using Mexico as transit from other areas. Not all plans are successful, but people should at least give Trump credit for using a certain tactic in furtherance of a strategy—although “giving Trump credit” does not compute with a lot of people.
The jury’s still out, but it looks as though so far this tactic has borne fruit. Remember, the idea was not actually to have to put the tariffs into effect; it was to get Mexico to take certain steps regarding illegal immigrants passing through that country on the way here.
Most people can’t admit errors, so that’s why this tweet is unsual:
Holy crap! If true, Trump was 100% right and I was 100% wrong. Good on him. https://t.co/KbFVWl9qT5
— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) June 6, 2019
The Mexican government is reportedly offering a slate of immigration-related concessions to appease the Trump administration as it seeks to prevent the imposition of tariffs on exports to the U.S.
Mexican negotiators are offering to deploy thousands of National Guard troops to its border with Guatemala and enact sweeping changes to its asylum laws, moves that are expected to prevent a significant number of Central Americans from illegally entering the U.S., The Washington Post reported Thursday.
President Donald Trump set a June 10 deadline for the Mexican government to demonstrate it would do more to stem illegal immigration from its country, or else face a 5% tariff on all its goods. The threat sparked immediate negotiations between U.S. and Mexican delegations in Washington, D.C. — which are expected to continue for the rest of the week.
Mexico, according to two officials who spoke with The Post, agreed to send up to 6,000 National Guard troops to its southern border with Guatemala, a major chokepoint for Central American migrants in their northbound journey to the U.S. That move is expected to immediately yield results in squashing the number of illegal immigrants.
Additionally, Mexican negotiators are prepared to revamp their asylum rules in the region. Under the proposal, Central Americans seeking asylum would have to remain in the first country they entered after leaving their homeland.
Now, it remains to be seen if this will actually be enforced. But so far those are very promising developments. Trump’s threats have extra power because other countries believe he’s just bold enough (or ballsy enough or reckless enough) to actually do what he threatens, if things don’t work out.
If this entire tariff-threatening approach is successful, I would like to see every single pundit who excoriated Trump for it eat crow.
A person can hope.
I used to read Ben Shapiro and listen to him but he has been WRONG too many times. Covington kids was the most harmful.
Shapiro is just a cuck in cuck’s clothing. And, alas, as for “A person can hope.” I would have to say that such a “hope” is what is placed in one hand.
Those 59 Tomahawk missiles are bearing fruit.
“Glaringly obvious that was the intent and the plan, anyway, to not have to actually implement the tariffs….”
Not obvious to me. PJT has been implementing tariffs against China for months now. Why wouldn’t he against Mexico if they didn’t stop the illegals and cooperate? China tariffs were implemented because the Chinese welshed on the trade agreement. Well, Amlo welshed on his previous agreement with the US. Ergo, tariffs to teach him a thing or two.
IreneNYC:
Well, I think it was glaringly obvious that he would rather not. The tariffs with Mexico were not about trade itself or economics; it was crystal clear they were about attempting to compel an unrelated set of behaviors on the part of Mexico, and that it was obvious it would be better to compel that behavior and not have to follow through by implementing them if Mexico was non-compliant.
I’m not sure why you think tariffs on China have any relevance to that plan.
Of course he would implement tariffs on Mexico if Mexico didn’t cooperate and respond to the threat. If Mexico hadn’t thought he would follow through, his threat would be meaningless and ineffective. So he had to be prepared to follow through. The threat must be credible in order to work. But as I said before, the plan was not to have to implement them at all, but to have Mexico cave to the pressure.
Vanderleun:
“Cuck” is a word that is just a cheap shot. Shapiro is many things and has many faults, but if you want to actually say something meaningful about him you need to say more than that.
And of course I don’t really have much hope that others will follow suit and admit they were wrong. “A person can hope” indicates that skepticism; I was being somewhat sarcastic.
Breitbart reports: “Mexican tax officials froze the assets of 26 individuals and entities they allege are tied to human smuggling organizations or to promoting Central American migrant caravans. The caravans moved thousands of individuals from the “northern triangle” through Mexico to the U.S. border. The funding for the migrant caravans allegedly came from the U.S., England, Africa, and Central America.”
The LATimes reports: “Irineo Mujica, the director of Pueblo Sin Fronteras, an activist group that has helped several large caravans of Central American migrants cross Mexico and reach the United States, was arrested in the northern border city of Sonoyta and charged with illegally transporting migrants. Another activist who has worked with caravans, Cristobal Sanchez, was arrested near the southern border and charged with smuggling migrants into Mexico.”
Pueblo Sin Fronteras appears to be run out of an office in Chicago.
Hi Neo,
Of course PJT would rather not have to implement tariffs against Mexico. We’re not in disagreement there.
But why the orthodox mindset towards Mexican tariffs, i.e., that the role of tariffs must always be just purely economic or directly related to trade? Given how Congress has hamstrung PJT in dealing with all the problems emanating from Mexico – exporting $500 billion in drugs annually, engaging in human trafficking and sending millions of illegals into the US – he has to use whatever weapons are still available to him short of military engagement.
I assume that Neo meant the intent was to not have to implement tariffs. Just as the intent is to never have to use nuclear weapons. In either case, credible willingness is a critical part of the deterrent.
I think three themes are appropriate with respect to a President’s decisions in international affairs. Every decision must support the vital interests of the U.S. Our allies should always be certain of his intent. Our adversaries should seldom be certain of the limits of his response to provocation.
I am flattered that since my last comment on pressuring Mexico, one expert (wish I could recall who the brilliant one was) echoed my idea that a more effective path would be a sizable fee on all remittances to Mexico from persons residing in the U.S. That would not hurt the U.S. economy, but would be painful to the Mexican, as the remittance pump a huge sum into their economy.
I will try to be cautiously optimistic that Mexico will consistently cooperate in our efforts to stem the invasion across our Southern borders; and I do not use the word invasion casually.
@Oldflyer
Remittances go to private individuals who are among the poorer in Mexico and without much political power. I don’t see them successfully rioting nationwide against their government over a remittance tax. Ergo, not much immediate political damage to Amlo.
And PJT wants immediate action by Mexico.
Tariffs, however, aim squarely at major business interests in Mexico who – theoretically at least (e.g., BMW and its $2billion plant) – can command Amlo’s immediate attention.
Yeah, I guess you’re a “cuck” if you’re not a full on Trump sycophant. Shapiro destroys leftists with reasoned arguments while Trump embarrassingly reinforces stereotypes the left has about conservatives. There’s nothing amazing about Shapiro reversing his opinion about the Trump tarifs. Thats a measure of his objectivity. Thats a marked difference than, say Sean Hannity who’s show no one needs to see, because you already know his ass-kissing opinion before he opens his mouth.
While putting a remittance tax on money transfers may have a short term impact, they will develop a work-around. If the drug cartels are strong in both areas, they will just establish a money exchange. The person in the US will pay a cartel person here and the family will be able to pick up the money (less a fee, of course) somewhere in Mexico. See “hawala” https://en.wikipedia.orgwiki/Hawala
With respect to the tariff threat on Mexican goods, I don’t mind it and I can adjust my purchasing habits. So what if I pay a bit more on my purchases considering how much I am paying in taxes to pay for the education, health care, living expenses, etc of the illegal aliens in this country. Add in the human costs of their illegal activities in the US – the increase in crime, the drugs, the increase in health issues, and so on.
Harry, is there any chance at all that Hannity supports Trump because he agrees with him an isn’t just ass-kissing? I’m always amazed at people’s ability to read others minds, devine their motives and judge them on those motives.
“….if you want to actually say something meaningful about him you need to say more than that.”
With all due respect, why would anybody want to say anything more meaningful about Shapiro, and his ilk, than allude to his basic political nature as is revealed more and more each day and then simply pass on? He’s simply one more vanity press in the bonfire.
Harry says: “Shapiro destroys leftists with reasoned arguments”
Stuff and nonsense, he simply lets you hear the dulcet tones of his “reasoned arguments” and collects you attention, at the least, as payment. The number of leftists “destroyed” by Shapiro so far stands somewhere between zero and zero. Indeed, if he attacks any leftist with any sort of hit that leftists speaking fees and book contracts simply go up.
vanderleun:
You’re the one who brought him up and called him “cuck,” which is one of those cheap shots that mean pretty much nothing. If you have a beef with him, engage him on the merits of the beef.
Donald Trump: https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1137155056044826626
“I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to….”
“….stem the tide of Migration through Mexico, and to our Southern Border. This is being done to greatly reduce, or eliminate, Illegal Immigration coming from Mexico and into the United States. Details of the agreement will be released shortly by the State Department. Thank you!’
… and I expect that the tariffs will be proposed again if Mexico does not follow through.
Irene if you read up on remittances you will find that they are quite important to the Mexican economy. The aggregate sum is huge. As for your points, they relieve the Oligarchal government of much of its social services obligations, while the senders enjoy the benefits of ours.
Liz, I suppose there are possible workarounds for every restrictive measure. Maybe a good excuse for doing nothing. Wait, I think we have done nothing for a long time. Most remittances are sent electronically. Here in Mexican-California, store fronts advertising such services, along with immigration legal services, etc. are quite conspicuous. A favorite vehicle is through money orders which have to be issued by licensed entities. The feet of such businesses are susceptible to the fire. I suppose the money could be sent by ” remittance mules” like drugs used to come the other way, until we got a little more serious about that. Of course they could build remittance tunnels under the border.
“Additionally, Mexican negotiators are prepared to revamp their asylum rules in the region. Under the proposal, Central Americans seeking asylum would have to remain in the first country they entered after leaving their homeland.”
This is the international rule for refugees, isn’t it?
Mexico has much stricter immigration laws than we have. They have just refused to enforce them on those illegals from other Central American countries. The reason: The illegal caravans have been profitable for certain people with connections. They are going to put their military on the border. As they should have long ago. For now, Trump’s gambit seems to have worked. We’ll see if Mexico can sustain the effort.
Pueblas Sin Fronteras has been a big player in this invasion. If Congress had any sense they would outlaw organizations like Pueblas that overtly promote illegal immigration. No money, no organization = less chance of large caravans forming. There is a fifth column of left wing churches and organizations like Pueblas in this country that have been promoting illegal immigration for years now. It will take some concerted effort to put a stop to their activities. Congress, do your job!
Oldflyer – with the concept of hawala, the money does not leave the country but stays to be used in a different way. Perhaps there is an entity in the far away country that needs to send money to the US. No problem, the funds are here.
Does my bank physically exchange the money related to a payment to the other bank to get to a specific person? Nope, in the US, the banks have agreed upon an exchange mechanism. The underground banks have their methodology.
In CA, the wire transfers may be obvious, but I am certain that in Dearborn, MI or MN, the money flows a very different way that is impossible to track.
J.J. – I think it is important for the citizens to do their job and call their senators & reps to give them a piece of our minds. I have a notepad that I write down the issues and make a monthly call. If they don’t do the task, then fire them in the next election.
Don’t have a senator up for re-election or your representative is a “sure thing”, then donate your money to another campaign. I am still getting emails from the people I donated to, but I am ready to start replying to a few of them about their stances, or lack thereof. I don’t have a problem with speaking my mind with those people since I wrote a long letter to them describing my viewpoints and that I expected them to support the President and his policies that he ran on and was voted into office for.
Unfortunately, I thought that my rep was a sure thing. He did to, and really didn’t campaign enough so I have a democrat for a representative. Won’t make that mistake again. It’s funny that I see some reports that the D senator from AZ has voted more conservatively than the R senator. Who would have guessed?
Ben is smart, but Mensa smart, not tempered by biological reality. If he went and served on the Western Front, and survived, he would be an intellect to listen to. At the moment he is so childlike. He so often takes an opposite to Trump position, almost instinctively, to what? Garner clicks?
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings- -nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much:
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And- -which is more- -you’ll be a Man, my son!
Trade is essential to us as people dragging ourselves from the muck of a savage brutish life to modernity. Trade enables America to exist, and all village tribal populations beyond about 100, to exist. Without trade, we would resort to war.
Ben Shapiro “childlike”. As in ridiculous butt-hurt insult ridden public twitter storm childlike? like that? Cause, thats fairly childlike.
Shapiro praises Trump when Trump deserves praise and slams Trump when he deserves to be slammed. If you are unable to see flaws in how the Donald comports himself in office, you might as well maintain your loyal Hannity viewership. Nothing there will make you feel uncomfortable.
Oh, and to answer Irv: Yes, its possible Hannity is single-sided with Donald because he agrees with him on every single issue. That wouldnt preclude him from being an ass kisser. In fact I think that it would naturally trend that way.
Shapiro was against Breitbart. So those for Alt Right or Breitbart, hate Shapiro.
It’s a Red vs Blue thing.
Or an Alinsky thing. Personalize! Freeze! Destroy! Get gain from it afterwards.
People really don’t like it when one equates Andrew Breitbart to Ben Shapiro. They really don’t. It’s an ALpha Game thing.
Triggering humans, killing their sacred cows in front of them and cooking it, then eating it, is good though.
Good for you, Liz. I’m a writer and caller to my reps as well. My House member, Susan Del Bene (D), sent me a snail mail letter back in March telling me that I was wrong about a crisis at the border. I just asked her a few days ago if she still believes there is no crisis. She won’t fess up because she, like so many dems, wants open borders. My efforts have no affect on her mind set, but I persist because I want her to know that not everyone in her district agrees with her.
Yeah, I guess you’re a “cuck” if you’re not a full on Trump sycophant.
The TDS is strong in this one.
Is that actual TDS Mike or an honest appraisal of blatant toadyism?
Oldflyer on June 7, 2019 at 5:33 pm said:
I assume that Neo meant the intent was to not have to implement tariffs. Just as the intent is to never have to use nuclear weapons. In either case, credible willingness is a critical part of the deterrent.
* * *
Indeed.
That’s also what made Reagan able to face off with the Soviets and break them down.