North Korea agrees to talks with Trump
It looks as though there will be a meeting between North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and President Trump:
News of the meeting was delivered by South Korean officials after talks with Mr Trump at the White House.
They passed a verbal message from Mr Kim, saying the North Korean leader was “committed to denuclearisation”.
South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in said the news “came like a miracle”.
“If President Trump and Chairman Kim meet following an inter-Korean summit, complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula will be put on the right track in earnest,” he said.
I think it can safely be said that people on both sides of the political spectrum were surprised.
I linked to a BBC article because I wondered what their take on it would be in terms of whether to give some credit to Trump, and here’s what they said:
Is this a victory for Trump?
Mr Trump has repeatedly belittled Kim Jong-un, and last year threatened him with “fire and fury” if North Korea continued to threaten the US. He has at times said there is no point in talking to North Korea.
But Mr Chung made a point of saying it was Mr Trump’s “maximum pressure policy” which had brought the parties to this point, a gesture which the president is likely to appreciate.
Our correspondent says Kim Jong-un has also scored a propaganda win, first with the Olympics and now by being seen to reach out to the US.
You can almost feel the BBC’s reluctance to give Trump any credit at all, but they did manage to report the praise from South Korea’s Chung when he made the announcement.
Actually, what Chung said was this [emphasis mine]:
I explained to President Trump that his leadership and his maximum pressure policy, together with international solidarity, brought us to this juncture. I expressed President Moon Jae-in’s personal gratitude for President Trump’s leadership.
I told President Trump that, in our meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said he is committed to denuclearization. Kim pledged that North Korea will refrain from any further nuclear or missile tests. He understands that the routine joint military exercises between the Republic of Korea and the United States must continue. And he expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible.
President Trump appreciated the briefing and said he would meet Kim Jong-un by May to achieve permanent denuclearization…
The Republic of Korea, the United States, and our partners stand together in insisting that we not repeat the mistakes of the past, and that the pressure will continue until North Korea matches its words with concrete actions.
South Korea certainly isn’t mincing words about giving credit to President Trump. That part about “not repeating the mistakes of the past” and continuing the pressure is, I believe, a direct reference to the lack of teeth in previous attempts to deal with the North.
It would be absurd to make any predictions about this meeting—including even whether it will actually come about. No one should trust the North Koreans, and I am virtually certain President Trump does not. One thing he is not is especially gullible.
Back in August, when the rhetoric between Trump and Kim was escalating, I wrote this:
Trump is a blowhard, but he’s also a wildcard, and that can work to advantage because instead of hearing a mere statement that some action is “intolerable” or “unacceptable,” the foreign leader to whom such statements are directed just might believe that a US president means what he says for a change, and that certain unpredictable but upsetting actions might follow on the heels of the “mere words.”
Of course, the danger is that the leader hearing those words may react in a way that escalates things mightily, and may not be particularly sane or rational. There’s not much indication that the current leader of North Korea is either sane or rational, and so any reaction on his part short of an extremely violent one could depend on others reigning him in, either China or “the North Korean leadership around” him.
And plenty of people in this country and abroad believe that it’s Trump who’s neither sane nor rational. But, as I indicated, that can work in several opposing ways—either to make people more wary of riling him up, or more desperate to fight fire with fire and not just limit the fighting to fiery words.
And of course “the foreign-policy elite…claim to be shocked.” I think they actually are shocked, and feel oh so superior in their own ability to deal with North Korea. But, as the editorial also said (and it actually understates the case) they don’t have much credibility either. In fact, they have next to none (with me, anyway).
That’s the problem with North Korea. No one understands enough about Kim Jong-un to be able to predict his reactions to what the West does. If anything, he appears to be even more unpredictable than his father was, and that’s saying something. Anyone seeking to evaluate the positives or negatives of what Trump said must take that into account.
I have little doubt that a great many things have also has been going on behind the scenes in diplomatic back channels. But if anything good ends up coming of all of this (and I deeply and sincerely hope it does), I believe part of the reason would be because Trump’s words of threat were credible and Kim understood that.
And if it actually turns out that the result is good, I would also dearly love to see the left’s reaction. Would it be something like what happened when the Soviet Union fell during the Reagan administration, when for the most part “experts” not only didn’t see it coming, but ascribed it to anything other than Reagan’s actions?
[ADDENDUM: Here’s a great and funny take on the Trump-haters’ fears that something good might come of this.]
At the Gridiron Dinner:
“I won’t rule out direct talks with Kim Jong Un; I just won’t. As far as the risk of dealing with a madman is concerned, that’s his problem, not mine.”
Heh. Like a surgeon with a scalpel, delivered with a smile.
I cannot remember which foreign policy person it was that made the observation that Kim’s behavior was directed at one thing: to protect the state of North Korea. This was not in the sense that they would be militarily attacked, but rather from the perspective of being undermined by the West with help from South Korea, China, and other neighbors. Possessing nuclear weapons, presumably, acts as a prevention mechanism. It seems Trump’s actions – with the help of South Korea, et al – may have given Kim the idea he can survive without nukes. Or he’s angling for more free stuff from the West. I trust Trump will not be as easy to take advantage of as all his predecessors.
“Trump is a blowhard, but he’s also a wildcard, and that can work to advantage because instead of hearing a mere statement that some action is “intolerable” or “unacceptable,” the foreign leader to whom such statements are directed just might believe that a US president means what he says for a change, and that certain unpredictable but upsetting actions might follow on the heels of the “mere words.” ‘
Neo, you get to the heart of the matter. Very well said.
OMG Neo! Did you just imply that The President may have used back channels to communicate with the leader of an international rival? Don’t let the Dem twerps know this. We’d have another special council investigating collusion with the North Koreans!!
One more thing: if this dramatic development actually bears fruit, will the Nobel committee recognize this incredible diplomatic feat?
If not, then Obama ought to give his unearned award to Trump. Obama can keep the financial prize, however. President Trump doesn’t need the spare pocket change.
This story on the Trump Doctrine is very intriguing, and if true, shows how this businessman is a shrewd manipulator. Art of the Deal x10.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/971917397031604224.html
Taking a short break from enjoying a nice piece of chocolate cake with the leader of our arch enemy, in order to fire 59 Tomahawk missiles into Syria, exposed the big stick that lets President Trump speak softly.
Not that Trump speaks softly!
This is either the little tyrant’s reaction to the bigger button or the current version of Groundhog Day. My bet is the latter.
Jim from Monroe thanks for that link. Brilliant way to sum up lots of actions. Makes it appear that clarity and truth are at work, Jordan Peterson style. Aso good to watch the Tillerson response to the Trump decision. Tillerson exudes calm and intelligence and support. https://www.apnews.com/d8629a986f42406c92926e79a9d3791b/President-Trump-plans-to-meet-Kim-Jong-Un-for-nuke-talks?utm_content=68415451&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Calm truth is comforting and welcome.
What is the dynamic between the military and Un? Does Un rule because the military supports him?
If nuclear weapons are Un’s trump card and he make concessions, how does the military respond?
I can’t see how they could allow that, since their power must derive from having an enemy that requires complete militarization.
If Un and the military de-nuclearize, the North loses any leverage to re-unify on their terms. Un loses.
China no doubt has put pressure on Un– since I assume Trump has linked trade negotiations to China using its influence to reign in Un, but China certainly has no reason to want the two Koreas to unify– unless like Germany, the costs to the South overwhelm their budget for some time. Eventually though, a united Korea could put pressure on China for dominance. Korea is the fourth largest economy behind China, Japan and India.
I know any talk of re-unification is premature, but if the North is really under economic pressure, talks of that nature could accelerate.
Out: OMG warmongering Trump is going to start a nuclear war!
In: OMG Trump is such a rube he is going to negotiate with North Korea!!
Trump, “I work for you”
For those in need of a good chuckle today, read Nicholas Kristof’s opinion piece on this development. It’s clear Un-Jolly Old Nick didn’t sleep very well last night. He contorts himself into positions that would make a pretzel maker green with envy to throw water on this deal. Maybe he should ask himself who exactly it is that is playing chess while others are playing checkers? But he won’t like that answer either!
The U.S. has been maintaining peace and order for the last 43 years (Since the end of the Vietnam War) by slowly accommodating the demands of other countries and appeasing enemy regimes. Because of our massive wealth creating resources this has been possible. We have spent blood and treasure defending those who won’t defend themselves. We have appeased enemies rather than use our economic/military leverage to stand up to them. We have negotiated bad trade deals because we didn’t want to seem over bearing to trade partners. As a result, our wealth building capacity has eroded badly overtime. It’s apparent that Trump has seen this for quite some time. Because he is not beholden to any economic entity, he has had the courage to begin the process of changing this state of affairs.
This unforeseen development with North Korea is just an example of how he operates and what he expects to achieve.
Yes, Kim may yet try to pull the wool over his eyes. My guess is that Trump is not going to be fooled. Denuclearization means unlimited inspections, an end to the Korean War (It has never officially ended.), and a much smaller army. Until those items are agreed to, maximum pressure must continue.
Neo, the “wildcard” moniker is very apt. I remember when the press talked about George Bush being a crazy Texan, “no telling what he would do!”. I thought that was great for our enemies to hear – I want them afraid of our president. It keeps them off balance. Same goes for Trump. If North Korea thinks he’s unpredictable and libel to do anything at any time, that keeps them on the sidelines.
“Lurch Says:
March 9th, 2018 at 11:20 am
One more thing: if this dramatic development actually bears fruit, will the Nobel committee recognize this incredible diplomatic feat?”
Myself, I have every confidence that if peace does break out on the Korean peninsula the Nobel committee will be awarding a Nobel Peace Prize…to Kim Jong-un.
John F. McMichael: “Myself, I have every confidence that if peace does break out on the Korean peninsula the Nobel committee will be awarding a Nobel Peace Prize…to Kim Jong-un.”
Just so. However, it would be a great way to allow Kim to save the all important “face.” That’s what I wonder about. How does Trump get Kim top denuclearize and also save face? This just might be the way.
Unless something major has happened inside the NK regime’s power structure, this is just the same old bait and switch from the past. If Trump actually has direct talks with the fat boy young Kim will love burnishing his maco supreme leader image by rebuffing the POTUS.
Unless something major has happened inside the NK regime’s power structure, this is just the same old bait and switch from the past.
parker: I assume so. But at least it’s a change. I go along with J.J. that:
My guess is that Trump is not going to be fooled.
When Obama was negotiating with the Iranians, it was clear he wanted to be fooled.
As I mentioned before, NK’s nuclear threat to the US is exaggerated given the reality of the high altitude test ban and China/Russia’s enforcement, plus the results of Operation Fishbowl and Dominus. It’s not something Nk can profit off of, so their escalation options are limited to hostages and having a strong military deterrence.
All the US President has to do is to not blink.
The problem with Democrats in power is that you either get a war (WW1, WW2, Civil War 1, Kansas vs Missouri border war, Vietnam, Korea) or you get them selling your country out to the traitors (Clintons and satellite tech transfer to China).
If you are really unlucky, America gets both at the same time. (Hussein’s wars, plus Hussein selling you out at Benghazi and Iran treasons)
Demoncrats, from the various data I have compiled on the full US histories, are the party of war and treason.
libertarianism.org/media/free-thoughts/north-korea-101
Is a good podcast about North Korean psychology. A good primary source for those that want to do open source intel profile analysis independent of being fed propaganda by US sources.
Kim has been getting intel feedback from the Red Chinese and his own Internet sleuths that the American DoD is buying pizza and working overtime hours pencilling up attack plans.
It’s also apparent to Kim that the DoD is dialling in various ‘solution packages’ for the President to authorize.
At the same time, his trade contacts are backing away from him. A lot of this is due to Beijing’s pressure. The LAST thing Beijing wants to see is an atomic Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.
Kim’s project must make that progression inevitable.
And then, there’s the sacred mountain that Kim keeps blowing up.
Yiikes. It’s hard on the Red Chines border! Red Chinese experts are convinced that the next Big Blow has a 50:50 shot at blowing the lid off of more Curies than you can count.
The primary fallout would be on North Korea, then it’s on to South Korea and Japan. Sadly, being so close to Red China and Russia, they’d get ‘tagged’ fine and dandy, too. Every time the prevailing winds reversed, an IMMENSE dose would waft over northern Red China.
Kim’s bombs are FILTHY, BTW. (The cleanest bombs are Air Burst.)
Kim could destroy his own nation — without a war even being in the offing.
The Soviet Union fell during Bush Sr.’s administration not Reagan’s, although the latter certainly laid the groundwork.