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Would it be possible to replace Trump as GOP nominee? — 111 Comments

  1. ‘I’ve pretty much seen that right along.’

    OTOH, I remember the last time Trump almost caught up in the polls you said something to the effect that it felt different that time…

  2. ‘I think Other Chuck is correct that it won’t happen.’

    If Mike Pence had even a tiny bit of courage he’d step down immediately. Unfortunately, it’s been quite obvious all along that the man is a coward and a weakling.

  3. “Will Pence step down to force the issue?”

    I dunno OM: at present there don’t seem to be any indications that Gov. Pence holds himself in so high a regard; there are even some indications to the contrary, like not attending Ryan’s rally in Wisconsin today, say, or issuing a condemnation of words without taking the action to immediately step aside.

    Nor really so far as I see it, would his resigning the nomination be interesting as such, though it may be disruptive somehow. Interesting would be more like if Gov. Pence took advantage of his access to drive an icepick into the base of Trump’s skull then to swish it around a bit.

  4. With early votes already having been passed, is there any realistic way that a new Republican ticket formed today could win?

    By the way, I’ve always been against allowing early voting.

  5. Trump has a 30% chance of winning. If the party threw him out right now, Pence would have a 5% chance, Cruz would have a 2% chance, and Ryan would have a 1% chance. All of them being politicians, they’d realize their odds, and they’d be roughly the same percentage likely to accept the new nomination. There’s no one else who could be considered. Multiply the percentages by 4 if Trump willingly stepped down.

  6. Nick:

    Your figures are merely your opinion. I think you are absolutely incorrect on all of them. I think the chances of Trump winning as some sort of independent candidate are zero, and the chances of the others would be something between 30% and 50%. But I realize this is merely my opinion, although it’s based on immersing myself in the minutiae of this election for over a year now. But no one really has a clue.

    You state your opinion as though it’s fact, however, and it most definitely is not. My guess is that if Trump ran as an independent or write-in candidate (I think it would have to be the latter, legally speaking, if the GOP took him off the ballot, but I’m not sure), he would get around 20% or so of the vote. Maybe not even that. It depends on the number of Trump die-hards there are.

  7. It’s probably too late to replace Trump unless he decides to step down, which seems unlikely, or he turns out to be an axe murderer, which seems more likely. However, it’s not too late to vote Libertarian. If enough disgusted Republicans decide to do it, it’s possible that the Libertarian candidate could win in a three-way contest with as little as 34% of the vote.

  8. “I don’t think the GOP has the cojones for this, so it’s almost certainly moot. But I actually think it could and should be done, because the current situation is a disaster in every way.” neo

    I agree as to the lack of cojones but IMO they don’t have the moral standing to make that call. Had they not so consistently shafted their base, then yes they could do it and have a shot at it being accepted. And regardless of whether they’ve actually shafted their base or not, that is the perception of the majority of Republicans:

    “Republicans’ trust in GOP leadership is dwindling, according to a poll conducted by EMC Research in the days leading up to 2015”

    “Only 25 percent of voters favor putting Boehner and McConnell in leadership positions. Even fewer–16 percent–want both Boehner and McConnell to serve in the House and Senate’s top jobs. According to the poll, 53 percent want neither or would prefer to see new party leadership.”

    Since that poll in Jan of 2015, I’ve seen nothing to indicate an increase in trust in the GOP leadership.

    As for winning without Trump’s voters, perhaps its a case of can’t win without them but also can’t win with them…

    I still think ISIS’ actions or lack thereof from now till election day will be the determinate factor in who wins.

    I more than half expect Hillary to win but won’t be surprised if Trump wins and wins strongly. I can’t imagine a stranger Presidential election than this one. The asylum has nominated two of its inmates.

    But in either case, its the aftermath of either winning, wherein the predictable volatility lies.

  9. Re: “Report: RNC suspending pro-Trump campaign”

    Someone please explain again how the RNC ever actually supported their nominee. They’re taking the high road, now that they have absolute proof (and political cover) that he’s an immature boob with a frat boy mentality.

    So, let’s elect the closet communist. What could go wrong?

    Nero fiddled while Rome burned and now, the American electorate are prepared to throw away their liberty. Perhaps Ymarsakar has it wrong, the American people aren’t evil, they’re simply easily manipulated fools.

  10. Trump pulled out of a campaign event in Wisconsin yesterday with Paul Ryan after this story broke, and said Pence would go instead. Now Pence has dropped out of the event.

  11. Geoffrey Britain:

    So, let’s elect the closet communist. What could go wrong?

    Choosing between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump means choosing between two communists.

    Remember how Trump praised single payer socialized medicine back in April 2015, during the 1st Republican presidential debate?

    Trump endorsed, in 2009, President Obama’s economic stimulus plan.

    In recent weeks Trump has said that he supports expanding Medicaid. In other words, Trump supports socialism.

    Pick your socialist: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Or refuse to vote socialist this November. That’s what I’ll be doing.

  12. What a turn of events.

    Completely unsurprising to me that they unearthed that interview. I’m a bit surprised that people care – this has been the “nothing matters” election up until now.

    Really disappointing that what the neverTrumpers (I happen to be one) predicted has come true – the press would sit on some bombshells (I’m sure there are others) until right before the election. The GOP has solidified its place as the stupid party for the foreseeable future.

    Heads need to roll (figuratively). Reince needs to be gone. Ryan, gone. Cruz (wonderful timing there Ted) – gone. Pretty much every major GOP leader who endorsed this guy. All need to have their political careers ended.

    Others who need to own their complicity in these events and -as a result – lose their influence: Limbaugh, Hannity, Ingraham, Hewitt (who has unendorsed Trump, to his credit), Coulter, and the list goes on and on . . .

    What a waste 2016 turned out to be. We could have been cruising (no pun intended) to a Rubio victory. Or pick your candidate. To bad the candidate picked was such a horrible one.

    Saw it coming . . .

    Who knows, as someone upthread said, he could still win. But he never had my vote, and I won’t vote for Pence either if that miniscule eventuality becomes a reality. Unless he comes out and repudiates Trumpism.

    Time to start over, conservatives.

  13. Sometimes it seems if there weren’t double standards folks would have no standards at all.

    Do any of you remember back to 1995? The sitting President of the United States was receiving oral sex in the Oval Office. Well, maybe he wasn’t sitting at that time.

    The current democrat nominee didn’t seem to care. The MSM said it was just sex. No big deal.

    Now someone makes a off-color remark and THAT disqualifies him not only from the Presidency but from even being allowed to run for the office. And he has apologized for it.

    The other guy LIED UNDER OATH. He lost his law license because of that lie.

    Double standard indeed.

  14. Spiral,

    “Choosing between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump means choosing between two communists.”

    There is a profound difference between a Lenin and those who flirt with supporting those of that ilk.

    “refuse to vote socialist this November. That’s what I’ll be doing.”

    That you fail to grasp that even by your own calculus, you are voting for the more venomous of the socialists is simply… sad.

    Bill,

    It’s too late for that ‘solution’.

  15. What if, what if, what if…..
    What if Hillary wins in a landslide and the Senate goes Democratic?
    What if the RNC ignores or overrules the votes of millions?
    What if we were not pretending to be appalled by the “locker-room” talk of a wealthy and powerful man, recorded 20 years ago when he was still pretty much at his masculine prime? Who spoke the truth about how young women are so easily seduced by powerful men, whether they be rock stars or businessmen or politicians?
    What if there were actual men in the Congress instead of these wimpy GOP pussies like Paul Ryan, intimidated and fleeing the offended female (aka MSM) reactions to locker room talk, scurrying back into their safe places?
    What if women were offended by Bill’s rapacious conduct and Hillary’s defense?
    What if women did not buy into the Hillary BS about women and the “injustices” they are said to suffer?
    What if one of every four college women were in fact raped AND reported that to the police?
    What if women were not a majority of the electorate?

  16. There’s a guy in our town who owns the local general store. Always active with the soccer club, Lions, and coach of a high school girls soccer team. I always found him to be arrogant and hard to take. Two years ago he was arrested for sending a sex video of himself to the girls on hid high scoop team.
    As a father of two daughters I no longer use his store and have had no contact since. He frankly disgusts me.

    Trump is now that guy. I can no longer consider voting for him, and Hillary is out of the question. I’ll sit this one out, stock up on ammo, and hope a miracle occurs.

  17. CNN just reported that Pence cancelled the Ryan event and told Trump he would have to handle this himself.

  18. Neo:

    From the article at the Brooking Institute you linked:
    Unfortunately for those Republicans wringing their hands right now, there is no way to undo what they did in Cleveland.

    The procedure to replace the nominee should he become incapacitated or drop out is pretty straightforward, but according to the article he would have to voluntarily resign. Does that sound like Trump?

    Over 80 million people tuned in to the debate. That is when Trump had his chance to sway undecideds. Instead he allowed himself to become trapped into a useless discussion and defense of his boorish behavior toward the former Ms. Universe, followed by 3 AM tweets and nearly a week hammering it home. With this follow up video proving his disrespect of women I doubt he’ll get 20% of the female vote.

    Just in from the WSJ: Trump says “zero chance I’ll quit”.

    The election is over.

  19. I heard McCain has withdrawn his support, after Trump endorsed him! I guess that means any Trump supporters in AZ are going to have to vote for McCain’s Democrat opponent…it’s the only way to punish him now.

    Who’s gonna join me?

  20. Steve D Says:

    If Mike Pence had even a tiny bit of courage he’d step down immediately. Unfortunately, it’s been quite obvious all along that the man is a coward and a weakling.

    That’s why he was chosen, Steve: his lack of spine. Trump surrounds himself with yes-men.

  21. Frog:

    What if we were not pretending to be appalled by the “locker-room” talk of a wealthy and powerful man, recorded 20 years ago when he was still pretty much at his masculine prime? Who spoke the truth about how young women are so easily seduced by powerful men, whether they be rock stars or businessmen or politicians?

    This wasn’t “locker room talk”. This was eleven years ago (when he was almost 60) – he’s bragging about how he can do whatever he wants to women because he’s a star – can kiss them whether they like it or not, can grab them by the p_ssy, trying to seduce a married woman (while his wife Melania was pregnant), etc.

    I don’t know who’s pretending to be appalled. I’m sure some are. I’ve been appalled by Trump for a long time (even before he began this run – although I never knew how bad it could be), but there comes a point where it’s just too much. At what point does he become unacceptable?

    If he did those things to your wife or daughter (attempted to kiss them, grab them by the genitals, try to seduce them) wouldn’t that matter? I’m sure it would.

    physicsguy – I’m a dad of daughters as well. I know how you feel. Wish things had turned out differently in 2016. I’m in the same boat as you – trying to figure out who I vote for (I don’t plan on sitting out, but I understand those who do).

    Tuvia – for what it’s worth, Bill Clinton was impeached for what he did. But comparing Trump to Clinton is kind of beyond the point. It’s interesting when talking about double-standards – guys like Bill Bennett were “appalled” by Clinton (he even wrote a book called “the End of Outrage” decrying that more people weren’t appalled. He also wrote The Book of Virtues. Was a Trump booster up until this latest thing). Lots of evangelical leaders have lined up behind Trump, the same people who were “appalled” at Bill Clinton’s behavior 20 years ago.

    Double standards are funny – put power in the mix and our morals and standards can get all out of whack.

  22. *Whew*
    It looks like we really dodged a bullet, huh Neo-neocon? Personally, I expect Trump to complete the closing act on Sunday by imploding on-stage. Then we can all feel good about electing Hillary…just like they planned.

  23. Neo, of course those numbers are just my opinion. If Cruz, Pence, or Ryan had followed the path that got them to this point with the nomination, they’d have a decent chance of winning. If Trump had been denied the nomination at the convention, or had quit beforehand, they could have made a decent run. But if he were to not be the nominee now, the Republicans would look like a shambles. They’re seen as racists today – if Trump were dropped, they wouldn’t be seen as non-racists; they’d be seen as incompetent racists. Every bit of damage that Trump has done to the brand would stay with the new nominee, and there’d the be insurrection within the party.

    There are certain phrases that anyone my age who has followed the news remembers. If you type “Panamanian strongman” into Google, Manuel Noriega’s name comes up. How many times did you hear the phrase “which brings to X the number of US servicemen and women who have died since George W. Bush declared an end to combat operations in Iraq”? What do you suppose the signature phrase would be if Trump were removed? “Mike Pence, following the unprecedented rejection of the candidate with the highest delegate count…”? “Paul Ryan, after what many are calling a coup within the Republican ranks…”? “Ted Cruz, despite being soundly rejected during the Republican primaries…”?

    There’d be no getting ahead of that message, because it’d be the truth. No, this is Week 14 with a terrible quarterback. We’ve got to go out on the field and lose. You can’t put in a new quarterback, because something something something this analogy probably was a bad idea…but I’m going to keep typing it. That’s the analogy I was looking for! I don’t have the time to type up a new comment, so I’ve just got to live with this one, realizing that it’s subpar, and hope that tomorrow no one brings it up.

    Our primary system got broke. We got this fool as our nominee, and we didn’t stop it when we could have – if we could have. The Trump supporters earned us a Clinton presidency. We let the “burn it down” people take over, and now the only way to get rid of them is to burn it down. We lose.

  24. We let the “burn it down” people take over, and now the only way to get rid of them is to burn it down. We lose.

    Good point. They wanted to burn it down.

    Looks like they did. Congratulations to the Burn it Down wing of the GOP. #MissionAccomplished

  25. In fact the voters are not voting for Trump or Clinton. They are voting for the Electors listed by their party.The Electors then vote in December for President and for Vice President (separately). Any change in the listed candidate does not change the electors. Any votes already submitted in early voting are for the Electors and it does not matter if the name of a candidate changes. The bigger problem is that if Trump (or Clinton) were replaced their name would still be on the ballot except in few places where the machines or paper ballots are allowed to be changed at the last minute.

  26. Trump just retweeted these Juanita Broadrick tweets:

    –Hillary calls Trump’s remarks “horrific” while she lives with and protects a “Rapist”. Her actions are horrific.

    –How many times must it be said? Actions speak louder than words. DT said bad things!HRC threatened me after BC raped me.

    Doesn’t sound as if he’s a man about to withdraw. More like a preview of tomorrow night’s debate.

  27. Now that a significant enough percentage on the right have found a defensible reason, i.e. excuse needed to reject a man so misogynistic, so crude, so full of himself… we can look forward to permanent one party governance, borders that only exist on obsolete maps, never ending mass importation of migrants fundamentally opposed to individual liberty and, to an ‘evolving’ and ‘flexible’ bill of rights as determined by our betters.

    So many potential futures now await; barbarians flooding through America’s gates. No-Go zones in every major city. Islamic terrorism that exceeds Israel’s. China becoming the world’s sole Superpower. Russia reabsorbing eastern Europe. A nuclear Middle East. And, the new United Socialist States of AmeriKa.

    But what is all of that next to the accomplishment of keeping a misogynistic, boastful boor out of the White House?

  28. Dogs and cats living together, too.

    Trump lost this, you can’t face it, and now you look for a scape goat.

    He made the tapes in 2005 and 2006. He gave Hillary all the rope she could ever have wanted, and he has hung himself politically. What will happen Sunday? It will hard to top his latest self immolation.

    Political hubris is Trump writ large in gold-plated letters.

  29. Bill: yes, the GOP for a long time was passing itself off as the family values party that was disgusted by BC’s actions. The party of moral adults. I used to believe them, too. That’s all gone after 2016, I don’t know if they can ever get it back.

    And I wish people would stop referring to this as “off color language” or “locker room talk.” The actions Trump describes meet the legal definition of sexual assault. We are not pretending to be offended, we are horrified.

  30. GB Says:

    So many potential futures now await; barbarians flooding through America’s gates. No-Go zones in every major city. Islamic terrorism that exceeds Israel’s. China becoming the world’s sole Superpower. Russia reabsorbing eastern Europe. A nuclear Middle East. And, the new United Socialist States of AmeriKa.

    Wow, that’s quite a list of accomplishments in the next 4 years! Hillary’s a real go-getter!

  31. Geoffrey Britain writes:

    Now that a significant enough percentage on the right have found a defensible reason, i.e. excuse needed to reject a man so misogynistic, so crude, so full of himself… we can look forward to permanent one party governance . . . . .

    Hillary Clinton won this election back in May-June, when Donald Trump won the Republican nomination.

    This election was never going to be decided by a handful of conservatives who might refuse to vote for Trump. This election was always going to be decided by those who voted for Obama in 2012, but have been disappointed with the results for one reason or another.

    In 2012, Obama got about 66 million votes to Romney’s about 61 million votes.

    Closing the gap was always going to be at least a little difficult. But when Trump won the nomination, it became impossible unless Trump re-invented himself as a decent human being.

    Trump could never keep the decent human being thing going for more than 36 hours at a time.

    So, blame those Trump primary voters, not those conservatives who see Trump for who he really is: A mentally unstable Leftist New Yorker.

  32. Can’t elect a womanizing sexist to be President can we? No, no, a hundred times no!
    Oh, but wait, we already have…….three times in the last 56 years. JFK, and LBJ were both womanizers who managed to conceal (with an assist from the press corps) their activities until after their deaths. We all strongly suspected that Bill Clinton was a womanizer when he ran in 1992, but once again the uncurious press corps managed to overlook all the clues. Even after he was outed, the press would have covered it up for him…..except for the little blue dress. Then, of course, the was the judgment against him by Paula Jones. Sexual harassment proved in court. And the accusation from Kathleen Willy. He fondled her when she was asking for his help because her husband had suddenly died. Hillary was not the wounded wife, she, instead became the chief protector of Bill. She was instrumentai in trying to destroy the reputations of any and all women whose names had been associated with Bill.

    “It’s only sex, it’s his private business, it didn’t affect his performance in office,” and other such talking points resounded in the press and on TV as the Democrats went to the barriers and defended him tooth and nail. Today, he’s a beloved elder statesman (At least by the MSM and Dems of a certain age.) Yet, there are still rumors like this: “Just a few weeks ago, reports broke that Bill Clinton had flown at least 11 times on “The Lolita Express” – a private plane owned by the mysterious financier and convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. According to Virginia Roberts, who claims to have been one of Epstein’s many teenage sex slaves, Clinton also visited Epstein’s private Caribbean retreat, known as “Orgy Island.”

    So, criticizing Trump for being a womanizer and talking about his exploits in a private conversation is normal but his talk doesn’t rise to the level of action of any of the three Democrat Presidents aforementioned.

    That said, I abhor what he did. He is a deeply flawed man and candidate. It now appears that Hillary is surely going to win. I have seen some suggestions of a write in vote for Pence. At this point I can’t vote for Hillary, Johnson, Stein, or Trump. A write in for Pence is looking like something I could do even though it might be futile. On the other hand, if enough people did it, it might prevent anyone getting the required 270 electoral votes. Then the election would go to the House. A Republican House might very well elect Pence. A pipe dream I know. But it offers a chimera of hope.

  33. OM,

    I have no problem facing Trump’s failures both as a human being and as a narcissistic egotist pursuing an office for which he is manifestly unqualified.

    Rather, it is you that can’t face the consequence of what your rejection of the con man shall result in… the triumph of the Left.

    Matt_SE,

    It is not Hillary who will accomplish those things but the Left because demographics combined with their machinations ensure that eventuality.

    I have often said that I’m very doubtful that Hillary will finish her first term. Either illness or death will take her. Which irony of ironies, may well result in her finally eclipsing Obama, for she will then have achieved martyrdom.

    Spiral,

    “Hillary Clinton won this election back in May-June, when Donald Trump won the Republican nomination.”

    Perhaps but if so, the neverTrumps bear their fair share of responsibility. Not for their justified disgust with the man but in their failure to see the bigger picture and in that failure doing their part to ensure the worst of outcomes.

    “This election was always going to be decided by those who voted for Obama in 2012, but have been disappointed with the results for one reason or another.”

    That would be true had Trump enjoyed a united party’s support. Since he never did, that section of disappointed voters to which you refer will be swayed by outer events or, the lack thereof.

    Romney faced nothing like what Trump has faced in opposition from the right, so the comparison is at least partially invalid.

  34. GB:

    BS. I didn’t make those tapes, I didn’t loose the last debate, and I haven’t been carrying his water while saying all is lost burn, it all down (civil war and revolution are inevitable).

    Focus. Trump appears to be loosing because of Trump, some sources (Wikileak email) report that Trump was Hillary’s preferred candidate; the easiest to defeat and demonize. DUH.

    Odds are Trump will flame out again tomorrow. Who to blame for that?

    Your opinions of Hillary’s health, big whoop. Have you forgotten that she is now “Satan in a pants suit,” upgraded threat level from “Stalin in a pants suit,” and therefor immortal? /jk

  35. GB:

    “Romney faced nothing like what Trump has faced in opposition from the right, so the comparison is at least partially invalid.”

    Selective memory, Romney faced opposition from many “evangelical Christians” because of his religion, LDS. Just as Cruz was hampered by bias against his religion, birthplace, and having a Cuban father IMO.

  36. “Perhaps but if so, the neverTrumps bear their fair share of responsibility.”

    You’re a good guy, GB. I know that. But this line of reasoning has no power over me. I’m impervious to Trump blackmail and the dark predictions of Trump supporters about us “Owning it” or whatever. Do your worst.

    It’s going to be repeated over and over again, I know. It’s all the Trump supporters have left. Pointing fingers at people who never supported him.

    I can take it. If he loses I’m going to enjoy watching the spectacle. He and his alt-right goons going down will be about the only good thing about this terrible election.

    Unfortunately, in this crazy country, he might still win.

  37. Bill:
    “He and his alt-right goons going down will be about the only good thing about this terrible election.”

    The alt-Right is just getting started.

  38. JJ, these tapes are not about him being a “womanizer.” They are about him admitting to, and bragging about, something that amounts to sexual assault.

    Yes, Bill Clinton probably assaulted women as well. But he was at least smart enough not to brag about it on tape.

    This is, what are the kids saying these days? A dumpster fire.

  39. GB Says:

    “Hillary Clinton won this election back in May-June, when Donald Trump won the Republican nomination.”

    Perhaps but if so, the neverTrumps bear their fair share of responsibility. Not for their justified disgust with the man but in their failure to see the bigger picture and in that failure doing their part to ensure the worst of outcomes.

    No, it is YOU who doesn’t see the big picture: that if you keep voting for the lesser of two evils, you will keep getting evil. You have given neither party an incentive to change their ways, because you keep falling for the same tricks.

    Let me save you years and decades of anguish, GB: every cycle, from now until the end of your life, the Democrat will be worse than the GOP nominee. Even if the GOP guy doesn’t meet the minimum objective standards.

    If you refuse to vote based on these standards, then you are part of the problem, because you keep enabling bad behavior.

  40. OK, so my error is I thought the tape was made in 1995, not 2005.
    But my point remains: we live in a country of chicks and chickens.
    Trump’s words get the response of “Oh the horror.” All horrified righteous chicks and chickens deserve the four fat wise(?) Sotomayors Hillary will nominate to SCOTUS. Some will be black, and blackness is virtue itself, as we all know.
    What is intentionally overlooked is that Trump as POTUS would immediately yield a rebirth of Legislative Branch vigor, something the nation has so desperately needed.
    Add the rest of the sh*t that will come, including national health service and humongous taxes. The RINOs will roll over for Hillary and her corrupt administration.
    Pfagh.

  41. Eric Says:

    The alt-Right is just getting started.

    If the GOPe knows what’s good for it, they will move to quash the alt-right after they lose the election. The other citizens won’t be in the mood to humor them after the epic failure they brought about, either.

    The only way the alt-right survives is if the GOPe allows them continued influence in the party.

  42. Frog Says:

    But my point remains: we live in a country of chicks and chickens.

    You know what a COMPETENT salesman would’ve done? Take this into account and adjust his message. I realize nobody can change the past, but Trump hasn’t even tailored his message in the present.

    His supporters nominated a clown. That made Hillary’s election inevitable. They gambled with America’s future and lost.

  43. “What is intentionally overlooked is that Trump as POTUS would immediately yield a rebirth of Legislative Branch vigor, something the nation has so desperately needed.”

    Based on what evidence, crystal ball V5.0 or medical marijuana?

  44. Nick:
    “How many times did you hear the phrase “which brings to X the number of US servicemen and women who have died since George W. Bush declared an end to combat operations in Iraq”?”

    That political stratagem counted on public misunderstanding of major combat operations and peace operations.

    To clarify the issue, “major combat operations” is a technocratic term connoting a particular set of policy, posture, etc. The President declaring an end to MCO when we captured the flag in Baghdad transitioned the mission to peace operations, which is a technocratic term connoting a different set of policy, posture, etc.

    Basically, MCO meant the US was warring against Saddam’s Iraq. The switch to PO meant the US was undertaking the securing of and stabilization with post-Saddam Iraq.

    The usual assumption is PO will have lower casualties than MCO, but that’s not a given if the MCO has exceptionally low casualties – which was the case with OIF – and a guerilla insurgency is waged prolifically against the post-MCO PO. As President Kennedy prognosticated at West Point in 1962, “this is another kind of warfare”.

    For more on the US peace operations with Iraq, review the linked content at the answer to “Was the invasion of Iraq perceived to be a nation-building effort?”, especially the DoD peace operations manual (JP 3-07.3) linked at the end of the section.

  45. Eric: The alt-Right is just getting started.

    That is ominous. I hope you’re wrong but suspect not. There is definitely a shadowy underground working to undermine the GOP establishment.

    I became suspicious of one of their websites, conservative-treehouse, aka The Last Refuge, and delved into it for several hours awhile back. They left the early organizing pages up which showed that the “group” had tried to infiltrate Lucianne and were rebuffed. The supposed head is a pharmacist living in Florida. Who the others are is a mystery. Who funds them, supplies them with information, and actually runs the thing is also a secret. They put up just enough straight conservative articles to seem legitimate, but there is definitely a theme that aligns with other alt-right sites, which is not an accident IMO.

  46. OM,

    I’m not accusing Trump’s harshest critics here of losing the election for Trump. Nor will I ever do so because I do not think that the neverTrumpers alone have that leverage. Trump lacks the ability to roll with the punches and counter punch effectively.

    I am saying that after Hillary’s in, we’ll never have another chance to turn things around. Not because she’s so formidable (Lenin-Satan) but because of the forces aligned in support of her agenda, which I perceive to be close to a tipping point from which recovery will not be possible. I’m saying that’s the only reason to vote for him and that reason is more than sufficient, since IMO there won’t be another chance.

    No, not selective memory, I remember the opposition to Romney well and IMO it never amounted to the opposition that Trump has faced. The GOP leadership fully embraced Romney.

  47. Matt_SE:
    “If the GOPe knows what’s good for it, they will move to quash the alt-right after they lose the election.”

    Not their job, at least not as GOP as such.

    The responsibility and role to counter the alt-Right goes to the same element with the responsibility and role to counter the Left: conservatives of the Right, who may also be Republicans. The people, activated.

    Activism-averse conservatives passing the buck to the GOP on the activist game is a fundamental error that in the first place gifted Left activists a virtually uncontested social cultural/political arena to run up the score which thereby enabled the Left-mimicking insurgent Trump phenomenon.

    I’m concerned that the non-Trump GOP and Right have rationalized Trump as an excuse to retain their anti-competitive aversion to activism rather than as a lesson to adopt ASAP the activism needed to compete for real in the only social cultural/political game there is.

  48. @ Eric,

    And as I’ve told you innumerable times, the right doesn’t want to become activists. We have better things to do with our time, and we don’t have the nihilistic hole in us that the left does. We don’t need to find meaning in politics.

  49. Clay: “Yes, Bill Clinton probably assaulted women as well. But he was at least smart enough not to brag about it on tape.”

    We don’t know that. No tapes have surfaced….yet. He did have to pay a judgment for sexual assault to Paula Jones. Juanita Broderick has never recanted her accusations that he raped her and Kathleen Willey is adamant about him assaulting her as well. I’m not defending either man. I am remarking on the double standard which always favors the Democrats and their ilk. I was going to vote for Trump as an anti-Hillary vote. Now, I’m reconsidering that position.

  50. Bill,

    My intent is to explain my reasoning and, to respectfully respond to those who disagree with my thinking. I have no expectations of persuading anyone at this late date. So I do not intend to point fingers in accusation, nor will I ever. As my motivation is only to point out consequence (as I see it) and IF I am correct, then those of opposite viewpoints will have to face their own errors, of which we all have some. I don’t doubt anyone’s sincerity here, I just perceive some here, to be in some areas, profoundly mistaken.

    Matt_SE,

    “No, it is YOU who doesn’t see the big picture: that if you keep voting for the lesser of two evils, you will keep getting evil.”

    Well, one of us isn’t seeing the big picture and perhaps it is me but obviously I don’t think so. Time will tell the tale.

    My position is that at least in a swing state, a refusal to vote for Trump IS a vote for the greater of the two evils.

    That a choice between two evils is ALL that we actually have and, that if the greater evil continues, there will effectively be… no more meaningful choices because the republic will be over in all but name…

    And I base my perception that Hillary is the greater evil because of the logistical resources in support of her and the ideological fanaticism and utter animosity that her side holds in their heart of hearts toward American foundational principles.

    As for a refusal to vote for either of the bad choices, in order to give the Republican party an incentive to change… that was once viable.

    But no longer is factually viable because a paradigm shift in political dominance is about to occur (2020) when 25 million new ‘undocumented’ democrats make their political presence felt for the first time.

    It will be a ‘game changer’ and “game over” for the right. The dems want amnesty and “a path to citizenship”. The GOPe wants unfettered access to low priced foreign labor and to get it will give to the dems what they want, in order to get that labor. While a fractured right wing base won’t have the political cohesion to oppose it.

    After this election, the only votes that will actually ‘count’ will be the leftist puppet masters. And, in our new “representative democracy” enough fools and LIVs will ensure that the elite continue to dominate.

    All of this rests upon several key premises. I have yet to see a reasoned rationale that persuasively questions those premises. Just arguments that assert that things aren’t that bad.

    Well, I sure hope and pray that things turn out not to be that bad and that my premises are flawed but, at this time see little reason beyond wishful thinking to expect that to be the case.

  51. GB:

    “All of this rests upon several key premises. I have yet to see a reasoned rationale that persuasively questions those premises. Just arguments that assert that things aren’t that bad.”

    Your opinion differs from others. It’s been pointed out before that others have reasoned rationales for their positions, however, those positions don’t comport with yours. That in itself doesn’t make your conclusions or opinions correct or more rational. Stay safe.

  52. Matt_SE:

    I think the point Eric is trying to make is that the right must become activist or continue to lose.

  53. Well, one of us isn’t seeing the big picture and perhaps it is me but obviously I don’t think so. Time will tell the tale.

    There were many things which I had confidence in predicting before, but this issue isn’t one of them. As people get closer and closer to battle and war, the variables become fractal and more complex.

    Which is another way of saying, the ultimate outcome I cannot see.

    That’s probably because unlike when the Leftist alliance took over the US using Alinsky and Gramsci Marches, this time people are fighting back. In a war, the outcome is always in doubt, because if there is a will, there is a way.

    It’s far different from seeing how Hussein Regime would take over the US military. Again, no contest or resistance. And there were plenty of warning signs for those with the intel networks to pick up on it and analyze it.

    We have better things to do with our time, and we don’t have the nihilistic hole in us that the left does. We don’t need to find meaning in politics.

    The Founding Fathers and the disciples of Jesus of Nazareth, did not have better things to do with their time than wage war against the evils of their day. Nor did they find meaning in politics, although it often appeared that way to outsiders.

    If the American people do not prove they deserve to exist on this continent, under God, then they will no longer exist on this continent… under God.

  54. Not because she’s so formidable (Lenin-Satan) but because of the forces aligned in support of her agenda, which I perceive to be close to a tipping point from which recovery will not be possible.

    No, the Leftist alliance still has a lot more power in reserve which they haven’t shown you, GB. I would gather that they are at 15-20% mobilization of their strategic reserves, right now. Maybe a little bit more, but not less.

    It’s only when they hit 50%, that things become so obvious, even the idiots will realize they are in a war to the knife.

    Technically, the Left should have husbanded their resources for another 1-2 centuries, then they would have seriously smashed their enemies with almost no resistance. But I guess they aren’t used to being patient with power.

  55. Eric Says:
    October 8th, 2016 at 10:08 pm
    Bill:
    “He and his alt-right goons going down will be about the only good thing about this terrible election.”

    The alt-Right is just getting started.

    Eric’s more right than wrong. I didn’t believe too much in that white nationalism thing, but that’s because white nationalism in the US has gone stealth and underground for so long, I never heard about them, other than stormfront. They just didn’t seem like an important faction with power, until they somehow jumped on the Alt Right bandwagon and took it over, via cultural force (they had their own Gramsci march in the whites).

    The reason why some things don’t disappear even if they lose, is the same reason why the KKK got more powerful after the South lost the fight for white supremacy as a racial belief system justifying slavery. It got more powerful, not less, because people who can’t win any other way, tend to start getting clever and more cunning.

  56. At what point does he become unacceptable?

    To Catholics, the moment when a political leader becomes unacceptable is when the Pope says so. It’s a human hierarchy problem.

  57. GB

    One thing I’ve been meaning to ask you about your theory that in 2020 there will be 25MM new democrat voters:

    How can this possibly be true? Even if the Government started today and worked as hard as it can it couldn’t naturalize that many people (our govt is not known for efficiency). They have to be citizens to vote, right? The path to citizenship takes a long time to walk.

    Just saying 2020 is really pushing it. Can we at least try to win another election before giving up?

    Secondly – you keep saying the GOPe wants this. I don’t know a lot, but I can tell you what any politician wants: Power. the GOPe (however you want to define it) wants to hold on to power. They also – agreed – are not as focused or as hard-line on immigration as many here. But the GOPe will not work hard to bring in Democrat voters. Never in a million years. The GOPe is stupid, and a little bit crazy, but they still know what they are about – holding and keeping power.

  58. Just saying 2020 is really pushing it. Can we at least try to win another election before giving up?

    People probably know that I’m not the “we’re doing okay, nothing bad is going to happen” kind of person who writes that stuff.

    So to me, GB’s prognosis is actually late by a few years. Meaning, it’s already pretty much over, and the only reason people are arguing about it now is the False hope of Trum, based on the real hope of the Alternative Right, as the only contender against the Leftist alliance.

    Watching people’s reactions in the US, as they wake up to the evil of the Leftist alliance has been interesting. A rather depressing testament and argument for human flaws, though. It doesn’t take much to manipulate the new Alt Right bottom members.

    The United States Civil War 2, will be different. Instead of 2 primary factions going against each other, Democrats in the North united with Democrats in the South, against Lincoln and Radical Republican abolitionists, it’ll be 1000 factions against each other. You vs the Alt Right vs Oathkeepers vs military vs police vs Hussein henchmen vs foreigners vs Russians vs AQ vs Shia Iran. It’s that kind of musical chairs problem.

    Right now the Alternative Right believes they can coalesce a counter alliance against the Left, and by using Leftist hijacking and mind control techniques, they can shut down dissension and use cultural Gramsci marches to reformulate conservatives into this new Eugenics based DNA White Christian nationalism thing. As an enemy of the Leftist alliance, the Alt Right is useful. As their own eugenics movement, they’re just going to have to wait in line, because there’s a whole lot of other factions in the US waiting for their chance at power; survivalists, 3% snipers, crazy people, civilian veterans, the security networks, etc. Anti Leftists come from all kinds of backgrounds and localities, and if the only thing the Alt Right has to control them is Leftist propaganda, mind control, Alinsky personal assassination, they will find that the anti Left counter techniques work just as well against the Left as it does against the Alt Right using the Left’s techniques. Unfortunately, anti propaganda resistance conditioning sets only work for about 3% of the population, the rest are either disinterested or incapable of progressing.

    Hasn’t even touched the religious issue between Southern Baptists, Islam, and the various other lineages broken off from Christendom.

    Originally, I did not consider factions in the Alt Right, even the Tea Party, to be all that important, since their power factor in a civil war was pretty low. They had little influence and leverage. I was counting more on the active shooter communities to make a difference, such as the ones at Bundy’s Ranch. To counter a Waco, you need another Waco, so to speak. A victory rather than a defeat.

    And as it turned out, the initial optimism people had for the Alternative Right was perhaps misguided and jumping the gun a bit. The Alt Right has propaganda on their side, but it is nothing new, it’s just rehashed Leftist Alinsky and Gramsci cultural projections. It’s not nearly enough to win a Civil War 2 on the battlefront.

    One of the benefits of having seen so far, so early, is that I had plenty of time to suppress and control my emotions. Very different to the people who woke up yesteryear, and have had their judgments destroyed by their out of control emotions. Which of course includes the DoomSaying/Doomsdaying, as well as the people rejecting the Doomsdaying. I’ve been predicting doom since 2007, when it was useful to appear “normal” online, so I am well acquainted with the difference between people being normal and prophesying doom. Right now, the American people aren’t normal. Whether that is good for patriotism or not, remains to be seen.

    After all, it’s not like another civil war is coming soon to a state near you, is what I was often told, implicitly or explicitly.

    Y’all got on this boat for different reasons, but y’all come to the same place. So now I’m asking more of you than I have before. Maybe all. Sure as I know anything, I know this – they will try again. Maybe on another world, maybe on this very ground swept clean. A year from now, ten? They’ll swing back to the belief that they can make people… better. And I do not hold to that. So no more runnin’. I aim to misbehave.

    Captain Mal Reynolds (Nathan Fillion) Serenity

    One of the latter hold outs, Grim Beorn who once blogged at Blackfive, has now come nearly ontop of my position concerning Civil War 2. He was one of those “it won’t happen here” factions. The cost of a civil war was so high, he thought, that it wouldn’t happen. Nobody would be insane enough to pull the trigger. Well, actually, humans being humans… Americans aren’t that exceptional absent God’s grace.

  59. Well, it seems to have turned into the right mess it seemed it would when it became obvious that none of the other GOP candidates were going to stop Trump. For me that was when my preferred candidate – Rubio – went down in Florida. Still, there are some big picture issues that I believe worth mentioning. The Democrats had an unprecedented upheaval too – they also came close to nominating an outsider because of disgust with the establishment in their own party. I would say that there is a realignment going on in both parties and it is not at all clear yet how things will eventually sort out. Just as the GOP was the natural party of government from the Civil War to the Depression, the Democrats have been the natural party of government since. I think that means they will cling to a badly superannuated and dysfunctional orthodoxy (AKA Blue Model) until events force them from power. I think the GOPe tends to be junior partners in that orthodoxy and that they have gotten their comeuppance from the Trump supporters. What they, and the rest of in the conservative camp do with the thumpin’ we are about to receive isn’t clear, but the way forward lies in rethinking the conservative program as the inanities and impossibilities of the Democratic program grind against the reality of the mess our country is in. At bottom my view is that everything is in motion and that the future is up for grabs.

  60. Geoffrey Britain Says:
    October 8th, 2016 at 11:04 pm

    I am saying that after Hillary’s in, we’ll never have another chance to turn things around. Not because she’s so formidable (Lenin-Satan) but because of the forces aligned in support of her agenda, which I perceive to be close to a tipping point from which recovery will not be possible. I’m saying that’s the only reason to vote for him and that reason is more than sufficient, since IMO there won’t be another chance.

    I remember back in 1976. I was 10 years old and Jimmy Carter had just been elected president.

    I was not very politically astute back then. A classmate of mine was and he was a Republican. He told me, essentially, that since Carter was elected, the United States was doomed.

    He was partially correct. The next 4 years under Carter were difficult years.

    In 1980, at age 14, I remember asking my father who he thought would be president after the primaries and elections were over.

    My father’s responded with a look of severe pessimism, “I don’t think it matters.” My father explained why he thought it would be nearly impossible to turn the country around.

    In 1984 I turned 18 years old and was eligible to vote. I noticed that inflation was no longer 13 percent, but had declined to a much lower rate.

    I didn’t think that this was possible. I thought that once inflation went up it was impossible to bring inflation under control. The gasoline lines had disappeared. I expected those gasoline lines to get longer and longer.

    Back in 1976, when I was 10 years old, a classmate (a different one from the one I mentioned above) told me that Russia (the Soviet Union) could “totally kick out butts in a war. They have so many more planes and tanks.”

    In 1989-1991, the Soviet Empire collapsed.

    Now, if you had asked me back in 1976 or 1980, how do we recover from our dire circumstances, I would not have been able to explain exactly how.

    Yet it happened.

    I don’t believe that Hillary Clinton will be a good president. I think she will most certainly be a bad president.

    But the idea that we are going to become Venezuela by 2020 or 2028 seems overly pessimistic.

  61. I awoke this morning to an e-mail from a liberal family member.
    Quote: It seems your party has been hoisted on its own petard of “family values” and moral self-righteousness – laughing all the way to the voting booth.

    Won’t repeat the 2 word response.

  62. Bill Says:
    “One thing I’ve been meaning to ask you about your theory that in 2020 there will be 25MM new democrat voters:

    How can this possibly be true? Even if the Government started today and worked as hard as it can it couldn’t naturalize that many people (our govt is not known for efficiency). They have to be citizens to vote, right? The path to citizenship takes a long time to walk.”

    Obama has set the precedent and enacted policies for amnesty by Executive Order/memo (EO). Hillary, especially with a Marxist Senate ruled by Commissar Schumer, and a new leftist SC Justice, will continue this, finding ways to make them citizens without the old quaint, lengthy “naturalization” process and will simply tell Congress “she won so eff off” (another Obama precedent.) All states with a Democrat governor and/or legislature will immediately move to implement her EOs.

    Watch.

    By the way (OT), Erick Erickson announced on his radio show that Trump refused debate prep again, and has pulled all his media buys in most swing states due to lack of money. I haven’t seen that reported anywhere else. Have any of you heard anything to confirm or deny this?

  63. Bill asked,
    “GB
    One thing I’ve been meaning to ask you about your theory that in 2020 there will be 25MM new democrat voters:
    How can this possibly be true?”

    You assume the coming tyranny will be as “inefficient” as the Obama rascals that have led the way. Inefficient? Must I remind you of Lois Lerner, Koskinen and the IRS? And Barack Hussein’s re-election?
    Inefficient? Must I remind you of the 900 to-be-deported who recently became naturalized citizens instead, by a few keystrokes? Has that been reversed?

    In the digital age, of course 25MM can be naturalized. Overnight. The old ways no longer apply.
    It’s not good. It is very bad and getting worse.

    The Left is terrific at destruction. It loves to destroy. They are efficient at it. Real dynamite or social dynamite, no difference in the destruction wreaked.

  64. Spiral,

    Your comment at @8:37am almost exactly matches my experience.

    In the 1970s, we were all about to die (global cooling, nuclear annihilation, etc). Russia was better than us, we weren’t going to have any oil after 1981 (seriously read that – I remember the date predicted). I became very skeptical of doomsday pronouncements. They are almost always a form of propaganda by someone who has an agenda.

    I’m not implying our friends here don’t believe them in good faith. I’m just saying they originate as propaganda by people with agendas.

  65. OM asked in response to my comment:
    “What is intentionally overlooked is that Trump as POTUS would immediately yield a rebirth of Legislative Branch vigor, something the nation has so desperately needed.”

    “Based on what evidence, crystal ball V5.0 or medical marijuana?”

    I reply, neither. It is obvious.
    Should Trump become POTUS, the Democrats and anti-Trumps would unite in both houses of Congress to scrutinize, delay, vote down nominees, and otherwise re-assert the third force (Executive, Legislative, Judicial) required to begin a re-balance of our 100 year shift to an Imperial Presidency.

    I don’t need a crystal ball, dope or a magnifying glass to see that. You shouldn’t either. Evidence? You need evidence? This blog is about thinking. The evidence, the #neverTrumps, is highly visible. The anti-Trumps are like roaches…turn on the light, and they scatter. Paul Ryan et al.

  66. We don’t know that. No tapes have surfaced….yet.

    You could be right that the evidence is out there, but personally I doubt it. There is far more conservative media out there than there was in the 1990s, and places like Breitbart are huge and well-funded. If they had smoking gun evidence, we would have seen it by now.

    I was going to vote for Trump as an anti-Hillary vote. Now, I’m reconsidering that position.

    The adult voters in this household were going to, too. Not anymore. There is voting for the lesser evil and then there’s selling your soul, and we’ve agreed that that line has been crossed.

  67. Frog:

    So the Congress will unite to oppose a New York liberal but the leader of the house is an insect? That makes complete sense and is thoughtful. /S

    Try the medical marijuana next time.

  68. Spiral: “I remember back in 1976. I was 10 years old and Jimmy Carter had just been elected president.

    I was not very politically astute back then. A classmate of mine was and he was a Republican. He told me, essentially, that since Carter was elected, the United States was doomed.”

    I’m quite a bit older than you and remember the70s well.

    Back in the 70s I had a safe space. The 70s was awful decade with the USSR always threatening, ruinous stagflation, and a government bent on progressive policies.

    My place was high in the Colorado mountains. It had a hand pumped well and an outdoor privy – both as backups should the electricity go down for long periods or forever. A big propane tank for heat, but a Franklin stove and many cords of wood as backup heat. Deer and elk were plentiful as were rabbits and squirrels. A large pantry with non-perishable food for a year. A rifle, shotgun and a couple of semi-auto pistols with plenty of ammo. A bag of silver coins and a dozen Krugerrands. I was ready for TEOTWAWKI.

    Then a strange thing happened. Ronald Reagan was elected. He instituted some conservative policies and, “voila,” the country began to resemble the America of old. Unfortunately, he was a one off. Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II allowed us to drift back toward the left. Now Obama has shoved us far to the left and once again we can see TEOTWAWKI looming. I’m too old to set up my redoubt again. I’m just going to do my best to take as many of the b**t**ds as I can with me. But I’m praying for another miracle like Reagan. Is Trump that miracle? I doubt it, but God often works in mysterious ways.

    Today Reagan would not be as effective as he was back in the 80s. The leftism is much more deeply entrenched in our society. The religion of Gaia worship and environmentalism is more deeply imbedded. Our willingness to confront overseas threats is much more stunted. During Reagan’s years many Dems were on board with standing up to the USSR. How many Dems will stand up to Russia or ISIS today? We did not yet have a huge illegal alien problem and elections were harder to rig. The universities were not turning out hoards of young socialists/communists. There wasn’t a tyrannical system of politically correct speech codes. The MSM was anti-Reagan but not nearly as openly opposed to conservative ideas as today. I could go on, but I hope you get the idea.

    So, I agree with Geoffrey. We are much further gone than we were in the 70s. Only a miracle will turn things around. Trump, unless he turned out to be some kind of miracle worker, would only be able to slow, not arrest, the slide into the maw of
    misery that looms ahead.

    I do believe the country still has huge economic potential, but it will never be reached through progressive policies. And those policies are what we ‘re going to get. Good and hard.

  69. Well, as depressing as it is, it’s not over until you give up or die.

    Have you hear of the guy who got stuck in a crevice and had to cut off his arm to free himself?

    The optimist says, at least he didn’t have to cut off both arms.

    Or his head.

  70. OM,
    “It’s been pointed out before that others have reasoned rationales for their positions, however, those positions don’t comport with yours.”

    It is not opposing opinions per se that I find unpersuasive but an as yet absent rationale that, for example brings into question, the demographic probability that under Hillary those 25 million new undocumented democrats will not create a new, permanent paradigmatic change in electoral results.

    Ymarsakar,

    “Not because she’s so formidable (Lenin-Satan) but because of the forces aligned in support of her agenda, which I perceive to be close to a tipping point from which recovery will not be possible.”GB

    “No, the Leftist alliance still has a lot more power in reserve which they haven’t shown you, GB. I would gather that they are at 15-20% mobilization of their strategic reserves, right now.”

    I do agree that being able to wait another generation or two would have made the Left’s triumph a foregone conclusion. But given the state of affairs, i.e. (Mid-East, China’s increasing militarization, Putin’s aggressiveness, a failed economy, astronomically obscene indebtedness, etc. etc…) I’m not sure they think they have the time to wait. Soros and his ilk may feel that its now or never.

    So I suspect they’re giving it all they’ve got. This close to success is no time to hold in reserve forces that could make the difference.

  71. Ymarsakar Says:

    The Founding Fathers and the disciples of Jesus of Nazareth, did not have better things to do with their time than wage war against the evils of their day.

    And if this were 1776 or 1 AD, that would mean something.

  72. Bill @ 2:13,

    You expect a Hillary Clinton administration to follow prior rules? And, they don’t need 25 million by 2020, they just need… enough.

    Congress can grant them citizenship at the stroke of Hillary’s pen. As, what possible reason would she, a compliant Congress and SCOTUS have for opposing that eventuality? Welcome to an ‘evolved’ Constitution, where law is always subservient to “social justice”.

    Of course, we should try to win in 2020. I’m just saying that every year more new democrats makes more certain that trying to win will be a futile gesture.

    “Secondly — you keep saying the GOPe wants this. I don’t know a lot, but I can tell you what any politician wants: Power.”

    “Top GOP donors tell party to legalize illegal immigrants” http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/30/top-gop-donors-party-legalize-illegal-immigrants/

    “Congressman Reveals GOP Leaders to Push Amnesty for All But Violent Criminals” http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2014/12/05/top-house-gop-chair-reveals-leadership-wants-permanent-amnesty-bill-so-not-one-illegal-immigrant-thrown-out/

    Do you really think they’ve gotten ‘religion’?

    Certainly the GOP leadership wants power, wealth and status. And the means to that lie with those top donors because that’s the means to reelection.

    It isn’t democrat voters the GOPe is looking for but hispanics with whom they intend to replace their base. Doing so by catering to their desires ala the democrat ‘big tent’. Principles be damned.

    “Paul Ryan’s Open Borders Push With Luis Gutierrez Exposed in 2013 Video”
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/17/paul-ryans-open-borders-push-luis-gutierrez-exposed-2013-video/

  73. GB

    “It isn’t democrat voters the GOPe is looking for but hispanics with whom they intend to replace their base. Doing so by catering to their desires ala the democrat ‘big tent’. Principles be damned.”

    So many things about this paragraph…

    First off, hispanics can’t be conservative? Why?

    Second – “principles be damned”. That’s funny. You’re talking as someone who is planning on voting for Donald Trump.

    This entire 2016 election season, from a GOP point of view, could be called “Principles be damned”.

    I don’t mean to be offensive, GB. But don’t talk to me about principles. Unless you’ve changed your mind, you’re planning on voting for the evil of two lessers – a man who is not a conservative, doesn’t show any interest in constitutional principles, has shown few principles as a businessman besides bilking others, has shown zero adherence to principles in his treatment of women (including all three of his wives).

    I know you feel forced into this. But if we’re going to talk about “principles” – they only mean something if they mean something. I’m not happy about this election either, but decided a long time ago that I wasn’t going to vote for someone who violated so many of my own principles as to make voting for that person a discarding of those principles.

    In other words – I don’t think principles be damned.

    And – yeah – the GOP better decide how to better reach out to non-white people. The current strategy is driving those people into the waiting arms of the Democrats. Maybe we ought to believe again in what we believe in, and fight ardently for those principles rather than sell them down the river on the Trump riverboat casino.

  74. America is busy throwing away its liberties and preparing to jump off the cliff into collectivism. Between the RINOs and the can’t see past the end of their nose conservatives… the electorate on the right has zero chance of stopping the Left.

    GB: You seem not to include Trump voters in that indictment.

    Speaking for myslf, I am most uncomfortable to discover how many conservatives and Republicans suddenly have little concern with principles, decency, honesty, reason and the Constitution as long as they get their authoritarian bully-boy candidate into office, they imagine to do their bidding.

    Don’t kid yourself. Trump is just a different flavor of “throwing away liberties and jumping off the cliff into collectivism.”

  75. “Frog Says:

    But my point remains: we live in a country of chicks and chickens.

    You know what a COMPETENT salesman would’ve done? Take this into account and adjust his message. I realize nobody can change the past, but Trump hasn’t even tailored his message in the present.

    His supporters nominated a clown. That made Hillary’s election inevitable. They gambled with America’s future and lost. – Matt SE

    The last time people, out of anger, took a big political gamble with America’s future, we had a civil war.

    State’s rights became much diminished as they were essentially put on the table by those who wanted to keep slavery.

    Thank goodness this is just an election, that we can prepare for the next one.

  76. Spiral @ 710,

    If you’re going to use the boy who cried wolf analogy, in support of the assertion that we can always recover, honesty compels one to acknowledge that eventually the wolf did… show up.

    I would imagine when our ‘wolf’ shows up (or don’t you believe that big, bad wolves exist?), you’ll be as surprised as those in the story who assumed that alarms must always be false…

    Remember that predators sense prey and America, under the democrats, increasingly smells like prey.

    Might I suggest that if unfamiliar, you google the term “normalcy bias”?

    And, I’m still waiting for you and others convinced that, “the idea that we are going to become Venezuela by 2020 or 2028 seems overly pessimistic”… to explain how 25 million ‘new’ democrats will not eventuate or if they do, will not fundamentally and permanently change future elections.

  77. Bill,

    “I’m not implying our friends here don’t believe them in good faith. I’m just saying they originate as propaganda by people with agendas.”

    Thank you for your recognition of sincerity on the part of those who disagree with you. I can’t speak for others but I can assure you that I’ve reached my premises and conclusions on my own and after long and careful thought. While also looking for evidence to disprove them. As getting to the truth of the matter is my motivation, rather than ‘being right’.

    “It isn’t agreement I value but clarity” social commentator Dennis Prager

  78. “First off, hispanics can’t be conservative? Why? “ – Bill

    This seems to be a recurring underlying / implied assumption in much of the doom and gloom hyperbole – not limited to hispanics, but any group of people who could be defined in some way as “other”… that they are perpetual monolithic bloc voters, who are automatically predispositioned to oppose conservative principles.

    Talking to folks one on one, have often found that they have many of the same wants and needs, and often think along many of same principles, once you get past the hyperbole and slogans. It just takes political candidates, the party, and us citizens reaching out, to put things in terms that are relevant to those folks.

  79. What goes with this assumption / this way of thinking is that it becomes clear and “logical” that the only way to correct course is to have someone force your views on others.

    Better still, we must do it before the others do it to us, or else, game over.

  80. Big_Maq

    And of course it will be unfortunate that rough crude measures will have to be used, but it is for the good of the nation/republic/people/(… choose you own). It comes down to the ends justify the means, only this time it should be “our” ends. Not to put to fine a point on that argument.

    Some feel it will be unfortunate, others (alt-rightists) don’t feel it will be unfortunate at all. Time to step off my soapbox.

  81. Bill,

    My understanding is that a bit less than 30% of native born American Hispanics are conservative. They already vote Republican.

    The GOPe is not going to pitch conservative principles to the other Hispanics. They’re going to pitch identity politics. They’re going to offer them “a seat at the table”, just exactly as the democrats do with blacks and then they’re going to pull the same old bait and switch game. Just as they’ve been doing with us for decades.

    No offense but what’s funny is talking of preserving principles as they prepare to walk you, your family and your liberties right off the cliff ahead. Good luck holding on to your principles on the way down.

    On the other hand, I have the old fashioned idea that survival is necessary, if principles are to survive. As example, WWII comes to mind… was Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki justified?

    Not by the proportional principles of “just war doctrine”. The wanton killing of women, children and old folks is clearly a violation of civilization’s principles.

    Yet too stop a great evil, those actions were necessary. So too with voting for Trump, simply because its the only way to obstruct the Left.

    Unopposed, your principles will rest at the bottom of the cliff. But at least you’ll have a noble death.

    “Men, the object of war is NOT to die for your country. It’s to make the other poor bastard die for his country!” Gen. George Patton

  82. Off the cliff of hyperbole again, it seems to be a bungee jump thing. Base jumping is a very risky sport, hyperbole jumping not so much. 🙂

  83. Bill,

    “the GOP better decide how to better reach out to non-white people.”

    Oh they’ve decided all right. They’re going to incrementally reveal their strategy going forward.

    “The current strategy is driving those people into the waiting arms of the Democrats. Maybe we ought to believe again in what we believe in, and fight ardently for those principles rather than sell them down the river on the Trump riverboat casino.”

    Good luck attracting ignorant immigrants from socialist cultures, who’ve been sold the left’s victimology memes their entire lives with “what we believe in, and fight ardently for those principles” of self-reliance and personal accountability.

  84. Big Maq,

    “Talking to folks one on one, have often found that they have many of the same wants and needs, and often think along many of same principles, once you get past the hyperbole and slogans.”

    I have several close friends who I’ve had exactly that experience with and more than once with the same individuals. Then the ‘liberal reset button’ is activated and its like we never had that conversation and it’s back to square one. Surely you can relate. How many liberals have you persuaded over to conservatism? I can think of only one. But perhaps you’re more persuasive.

    I have no intention of forcing anyone to think my way. I simply want the Left and its liberal minions to stop trying to force us into their box. And, it is they who are doing the forcing.

    OM,

    I damn sure hope its a case of hyperbole because we’ll all be better off if it is and, all I’ll have on my face afterwards will be some egg to wipe off. Be sure to stick around, in a few years if Hillary hasn’t even managed to take us right up to the cliff’s edge, Ill happily acknowledge having played the fool.

    On the other hand, if it’s not hyperbole, you’re in for a hell of an unpleasant surprise on the way down and you won’t be able to say you weren’t warned.

  85. Edit:

    Off to the cliff of Mt. Hyperbole again, it seems to be a bungee jump thing. Base jumping is a very risky sport, jumping the cliff of Mt. Hyperbole not so much. 🙂

  86. To repeat:

    If you think the country will end, everything is permissible and excusable. It is a high-pressure sales tactic designed to inflame voters into making poor choices.

  87. It it sort of a sinkhole thing that opens under your feet without warning, this chasm of catastrophe? Or is it a cliff on Mt. Hyperbole that you don’t see, hidden in fog and mist (Nacht and Nebel?), or a crevasse of socialism and statism?

    And are there alt-right versions that one must be wary of and guard against? Surely not. 🙂

  88. GB:

    It’s difficult for me to reconcile your belief that we are on the precipice of losing it all (a belief with which I agree) and your insistence that the only way to stop the free fall, or at least delay it, is the election of one single very flawed man who is at heart a progressive, has been a Democrat most of his life until his miraculous conversion a few years ago, has advocated for positions anathema to basic conservative dogma like his continuing support for Planned Parenthood, single payer health care, giant government funded works projects, and earned income refunds for child care (welfare for babysitting like Canada and Australia).

    It appears that you’ve now retreated to a single defense, that without Trump stopping a supposed hoard of legal and illegal immigrants (your estimate is 25 million) all will be lost forever. I’m calling BS on this, not the possible influx under Clinton and Kaine, but that Trump will somehow stop millions of new Democrat voters. With or without increased immigration there will be more and more liberal voters based on current demographics as well as voting patterns of millennials.

    If we are indeed on the verge of losing the economic and cultural traditions of this country as we see our constitutional framework trashed, law and order in shambles, families continuing to disintegrate, and a lower and lower living standard to the point of middle class extinction, what makes you think electing this jackass will have any effect? That he wouldn’t be quite as bad as the corrupt socialist on a few current issues is really irrelevant in the long run. He could possibly, or more likely probably, be a disaster in foreign policy which could nix any tiny benefit on the domestic front. Think a trade war leading to a hot war with China.

    Politics is only part of the problem. What some call the Gramscian march through the institutions started with Dewey over a century ago. The election of a nitwit without a firm ideology of freedom won’t stop any of that. So far the remnants of the Enlightenment, reason and science, along with capitalist inventiveness, has saved us. That is about to end. We are literally broke, intellectually and economically.

    Until the time comes when free speech is no more (and they’re working on it) we can proselytize and hope. When that isn’t possible, you know what we’ll do.

  89. “Then the ‘liberal reset button’ is activated and its like we never had that conversation and it’s back to square one.” – GB

    Do you know of any business that has competition, yet has a 100% conversion rate?

    Thought not.

    If you ran a business thinking it is not worth acquiring new customers because at some future point they may go back to the competition (and some percentage certainly will), then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy (and you’d quickly be headed for bankruptcy).

    We are in a marketplace of ideas. A rather messy one. We just need to persuade enough to win elections and build support for policies we think need to be implemented. And, evidently, we need to work on retaining the ones we have.

    I’d fire any sales personnel if they gave me such an argument, as it tells me they gave up before even really trying, and are making excuses.

  90. @Neo – thanks! Amazed at some of the clips you find that speak so well to the issues at hand.

  91. Neo:

    Thanks for posting the clip. The ends justifying the means tends to have unfavorable outcomes for more than those upon whom the “remedy” is intended.

  92. Still awaiting and answer for those who thinks trump is (was?) the only course to follow, what is your “plan B”?

  93. In the 1970s, we were all about to die (global cooling, nuclear annihilation, etc). Russia was better than us, we weren’t going to have any oil after 1981 (seriously read that — I remember the date predicted).

    None of which is something I predicted, mind you.

  94. And if this were 1776 or 1 AD, that would mean something.

    Nothing about you or any other human has changed back then. You don’t understand those times, but even if you did, your situation is not much different.

    The argument from ignorance pov only goes so far, but it’s not something you can win against evil or power with.

  95. So I suspect they’re giving it all they’ve got. This close to success is no time to hold in reserve forces that could make the difference.-GB

    To clarify something, their power isn’t held in reserve the way you use it, since the Left needs money to maintain organizations like Planned Profit or ACORN, and the IRS needs an operating budget. By reserve, I use it in terms of reserving it for peace or war.

    These assets are under the Left’s control, whether people knew it or not in 2009. What people here don’t know is what the Left is doing, while people focus on what’s been leaked and has become public knowledge. Fast and Furious, IRS freezing assets and donations of Tea Party conservatives so they fail to make a difference in the 2012 election, all that stuff was known after it happened, via leaks or whistle blowers.

    When the Left deploys a strategic asset, that asset is used up, they can’t convert it back into a normal sleeper cell any more that is operating normally. Like Islam, there is a House of Peace and a House of War. And like BLM, they’ll preach Peace and Diversity, up until they get enough weapons and power to start doing Violence and Terror. But once they flip that switch, they won’t go back.

    Right now, much of the Left’s strategic power is in reserve, meaning it’s operating by normal maintenance standards. They haven’t mobilized them for war yet. A lot of what people see in DC is just DC power politics, converted to war under Leftist dominion. What they don’t see is all the other stuff happening under the hood.

    The Left cannot mobilize more than 50% of their strategic reserves, even now it’s only at around 20%, precisely because they rushed the time tables for war. The Americans ARE NOT disarmed. They cannot just deploy 50% of their strategic reserves into the field, because most of it would be annihilated. They know this. So they keep it in reserve, and pretend it’s just “peaceful bureaucrats”. It’s not peaceful police unions and bureaucrats. It’s not even peaceful “black anti war protesters” any more.

    But just because they don’t want to use it now, doesn’t mean they won’t use it in the future when conditions on the field change. Right now, they are husbanding their forces, taking over local cities and counties, while people are distracted by power politics. The Left’s left hand moves on, while the right hand fights against the US patriots. Meanwhile, the US patriots perceive that the right hand fighting them is the only power they need to defeat on the Left. From my pov, that’s not so. The Left has a head, some knees, two legs, that they will also use in time when needed.

    Speaking for myslf, I am most uncomfortable to discover how many conservatives and Republicans suddenly have little concern with principles, decency, honesty, reason and the Constitution as long as they get their authoritarian bully-boy candidate into office, they imagine to do their bidding.-Huxley

    Humans are weak. They are easy to tempt into evil. With human morality under atheism and power megalomania, the mask of civilization will always fall the second there’s a famine or crash of the public trust. It’s merely the limit of human power, and the trueness of human nature. If humans were better, we would have had one civilization from BC onwards, never falling or destroying it, ever improving, until we could control all of quantum mechanics and this solar system by now. But we don’t.

    America was no exception to the rule of fallen civilizations. If it was exceptional, it was only exceptional because humans obeyed God and had a personal contract from this nation to the God of Abraham, Isaac, Jacob, that so long as Americans were righteous, God’s grace will protect America. If Americans become unrighteous, they will be destroyed or lose the protection, they’ll be cut off and on their own.

    That’s probably what the Founding Fathers meant by “Under God” even. Human laws were meant to govern humans, but without recognition of the Creator as in charge of divine laws which supersede human laws, humans can just do whatever they want, make up any new law as they see fit. The true guarantor and protector of the US Constitution wasn’t Congress or some judges, it was the righteousness of the American people and obedience to the divine laws and moralities. If it was just human atheism, human law, and human power we served, then we will go up as we go down, just like any other human civilization. Kings, dictators, totalitarians, military geniuses like Attila, Alexander, Ghenghis, have tried to fight this cycle, but if they can’t succeed, nobody else can.

    State’s rights became much diminished as they were essentially put on the table by those who wanted to keep slavery.-B

    Most of that is a propaganda illusion told by the losers, though.

    It wasn’t State Rights, the Confederates fought for, but for more federal political power to enforce the Fugitive Slave Acts. It was abolitionist states like New York which nullified the Fugitive Slave Acts, and prevented the feds from enforcing them, that were pissing off the slave lords enough that they seceded. It’s all there in the Secession documents. The Fugitive Slave Acts were mentioned by a significant portion of states as being the reason they left.

    State Rights were what the Irish/Scot whites fought for, but since it was the slave lords that started the war and it was the slave lords that were immune to serving in the war, the Irish/Scots had to come up with a reason why they were fighting. That’s the reason they came up with, or was given, something they could swallow instead of the truth. Which is that they were just some aristocrat’s cannonfodder, used to fight a war for slavery when the poor whites didn’t even own slaves. Like I said, humans are easy to deceive. They don’t know any better.

    Surely you can relate. How many liberals have you persuaded over to conservatism? I can think of only one. But perhaps you’re more persuasive.

    Personally, I find it easier to talk about Jesus Christ and converting people to Christianity, than converting a Leftist from worship of Lucifer/Deus Ex machina gods to something politically different. Once a human has their Authority set, it’s not easy to shake that bedrock without physically or mentally shattering them first. Religion > Politics in epistemology, metaphysics, and Authority.

    Paul/Saul’s conversion is a good example to keep in mind. Not someone who would have stopped persecuting Christians if any old Jew told him to stop (Reason/Politics). Saul was operating under the highest judicial executive authority of the Jews, and perhaps even with the writ of the Romans. Unless they told him to stop, he wasn’t going to. Only when a higher authority came, did Saul begin to question his actions, but if Saul had not recognized that as being a higher authority, he would have hardened his heart and continued his ways. This isn’t a business competing against a business. Even if you could convince Saul, by reason, that the Sanhedrin were in the wrong, Saul would still have obeyed those edicts. It doesn’t matter if politically he is wrong, as he is still under orders and Authority. Same for Leftists. It’s not businesses competing. You aren’t an equal to Saul’s authority, unless you’re God.

    This is why Muslims always convert the atheists first. They usually leave the Jews, Christians, and other hardcore sects alone at first. But if you say you are agnostic or atheist, then they’re on you and taking you to Mosque or talking about the wonders of Islamic Golden Age and covering up of women.

    Even con artists have testified that atheists are easy to con with a social game. Since all they care about is social attention and status. The ones devoted to family hierarchy or some other Authority, con artists usually avoid those people like the plague, because they can’t out argue what people never reasoned themselves into with greed.

    It is a high-pressure sales tactic designed to inflame voters into making poor choices.

    Humans are so weak, Americans are no exception, that any tactic can be used to make them fall for poor choices. Consider pornography and Hollywood. I can think up 12 other ones off the top of my list that doesn’t have to do with Doomsday APocalypse America.

  96. Frog, I’ve had practice talking to other people since 2007, about the (zombie) apocalypse, so it’s easier for me to partition my emotions and look at things objectively.

    It’s nice to put all that learning to use, since in 2007, I refrained from even mentioning an apocalypse, since that was just crazy talk. Nobody was going to go along with that, except maybe white Stormfront or Black Panther race war wannabes.

    It feels good to let the mask drop and let loose with what I think is really going to happen. Although since 2012, I started doing more and more of that here and elsewhere. In 2007, I had to pretend that I was on topic and just talking about human nature. Yea, the human nature to self destruct and make Civil War 2 inevitable in the US perhaps.

    The moment when things changed was when I noticed other people in random comment sections on Disquis started talking about civil war or the things I was thinking of or had written before. Still crazy talk back then, of course, but sometimes the crazy talk becomes true.

    One reason I am calm when everyone else has been losing their heads over all kinds of things, half of which are the Demoncrats evils I’ve been preaching about for years, has to do with the progression of my beliefs. I, of course, mentioned Clinton’s rapist history a few times as well, way before it was “popular” to do so in social media.

    It seems far more likely to me that the last days of Judgment is getting a little too close. If that is the case, God will judge and inflict vengeance upon the evil, or use evil to shatter evil. Not exactly a nice time to live in, but interesting at least. Entire generations have gone by, without being able to testify that they were here not only to Witness the Last Battle of the United States of America, but to fight in it.

    If the world is going to burn or get reset like Noah’s flood, I, for one, will stand and watch, as people’s souls are judged. I may learn something few other humans have. As a self proclaimed mad scientist, the field of studying the spirit or the soul is still fresh and new, not something I’ll just let pass me by for human common sense.

  97. Nero fiddled while Rome burned and now, the American electorate are prepared to throw away their liberty. Perhaps Ymarsakar has it wrong, the American people aren’t evil, they’re simply easily manipulated fools.

    Based on what I read in the Bible, Acts, Nero was busy crucifying Christians in Rome and killing disciples of Christ, for some reason. Probably helps to cover up his little arson, which he used to confiscate land from nobles to build a statue to Nero as Divine Emperor.

    The amazing account of Paul’s journey to Rome, instigated by various assassination attempts against him by the Jews (it’s right there in the Bible accounts), to me was how obedient to human law and jurisdiction and due process the Roman citizens and judges were, compared to the zealot Jews acting like all the disciples of Jesus were breaking the law of Moses. Bearing false testimony indeed.

    But considering how many humans saw the Planned Profit videos and still support human blood magic sacrifice, that tells God something. God may be able to see into human hearts, but God often tests humans, to see if they will fall to Lucifer’s temptations.

    Lucifer manipulates humans, and then humans turn evil, of course. But while a human may claim that he was only “thinking” of doing evil, he wasn’t responsible for it, God can provide them the more severe punishment if in mortal life they actually knowingly supported evil. With the Planned Profit tapes, they can’t say they didn’t know. That’s like a person under human law saying they didn’t know rape and running over children was against the law, so they should not be punished. Ignorance under human law is no excuse. Ignorance under divine law, may indeed excuse them from punishment, which is why they can’t take back what they did after we told them the Planned Profit videos showed the evil of their cause. They knew this, rejected the truth, and still contribute to the cause of evil. Knowingly, in their own profit, decadence.

    And everybody who sees this and tolerates it, is guilty by association. It’s that problem of how God wipes out Soddom and Gomorrah because there wasn’t even 5 righteous souls in the city. Collateral damage, justified. Americans who let evil gather around and grow, may come to regret it.

    https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Acts+23&version=NIV

    The Romans had great respect for what Americans would term law and order, due process. It echoes what Paul later wrote in his epistles, concerning the difference between a Gentile that follows righteous laws that adhere to Godly divine laws, vs a Jew who is physically purified yet does not follow the laws in spirit or in heart.

    Their Emperors probably had some evil spirits inhabiting their body, similar to what we see in Hussein Obola and Hillary Rod Damn Clinton. The citizen body of the empire, the centurions, the border guards, and the local provincial judges and governors were what really kept the empire stable and working. The flyover country, loyal bureaucrats.

    Also notice how free transportation was even in 1st AD Rome, Egypt, Syria, etc. Naval technology got better and safer in the Mediterranean in 700-1000AD. The Vikings, for example, sailed all the way from Norway to a sea near Constantinople, via inland rivers and porting. Yet why did transportation and trade between those areas diminish over time?

    Islam came to fruition during the 7th century, I recall. Maybe that had something to do with it? Heh

  98. “God may be able to see into human hearts, ….” What’s this may be stuff?

    This God of yours doesn’t seem to match up with the God of the Old and New Testaments. The God who is omniscience, immortal, all powerful.

  99. “It wasn’t State Rights, the Confederates fought for, but for more federal political power to enforce the Fugitive Slave Acts…. State Rights were what the Irish/Scot whites fought for…Which is that they were just some aristocrat’s cannonfodder, used to fight a war for slavery when the poor whites didn’t even own slaves.” – Yarmarsakr

    Not sure you are arguing with me or against me, as your points seem to lead to the same conclusion.

    The South wanted to retain the ability to have slavery. Regardless of the primary political / legal arguments made by the South at the time, essentially they brought it to a head by claiming the right to secede, thus the Civil War put the issue of States Rights on the table.

  100. Big Maq Says:
    October 12th, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    The point that differs from yours is over the timeline of what caused State Rights to become an issue. My position is that the South and the North both claimed State Rights, even before 1850. That is very different from your claim that the end of Civil War 1, put the issue on the table instead.

    To omni tool:

    Also for someone that believes God knows what is in your heart, it’s surprising you can just let out your venom and bitterness online without thinking you’ll be judged for hating your neighbor. God has provided people free will, yes even the Trum and Democrat supporters. It’s not something for you to castigate them for using, just because you believe you alone have a conscience and are righteous.

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