A few more post-NY-primary thoughts
Here’s an interesting article at RedState that crunches the delegate numbers and finds that it still won’t be easy for Trump to win the GOP nomination on the first convention ballot. I’m not at all sure about any of these projections (pro or con Trump, it doesn’t matter which) because there are too many unknowns. But this one makes enough sense that it should cheer at least a few of you up, at least a little bit.
I also have noticed the argument that, if the convention goes to a second ballot and Trump the frontrunner doesn’t win, many or even most of his supporters will be so angry they won’t vote for the eventual nominee no matter who he is (and for some, especially if he’s Ted Cruz). While that certainly seems true to me, I don’t think it matters all that much for the simple reason that I don’t think many or most of them were going to vote for the eventual nominee anyway if it wasn’t Trump. The reasons vary from person to person, but here are a few possibilities: they aren’t people who usually vote, and only Trump brought them into the political fray; they are activists who are dedicated to the destruction of the GOP; they are “the base” but are very very angry at the entire GOP and will only support Trump, because all the rest are tainted as far as they’re concerned; they are liberal Republicans who will not vote for a conservative; they believe the constant drumbeat of negative publicity about “lyin’ Ted”; they don’t like Ted Cruz’s face or his voice or his religious beliefs.
The Republican Party has been divided for many years now, and the division reached a fever pitch during and after the 2012 election. I’ve watched it and tracked it, and it’s only grown ever since (with a little blip for the hope represented by the 2014 mid-term election). Trump (helped by the activist alt-right) is a magnet for this emotion—a magnet that has not only attracted the feeling, but has purposely amplified it for his own purposes.
Strategically the GOP has to be purged first, to secure the logistics from which to launch an attack against the Leftist alliance of human slavery, evil, and hydra regenerating monsters. And only after the Left’s power has been broken, will Islam be vulnerable.
It just all feels too late. I just read an article about schools in the UK asking FOUR YEAR OLD CHILDREN to decide what gender they are out of list of 12-15. Madness. I am so down about the future.
Trump will get to 1237. They are figuring out numbers based on old polling (Montana, for example). As Cruz looks less and less likely to be able to win, fewer and fewer people will show up to vote for him or will switch to vote for Trump (the winner phenomenon – people like to vote for the perceived ‘winner.’).
Kasich doesn’t show any signs of dropping out of the race, which will continue to damage Cruz. I am even seeing numbers where Cruz is losing support, while Kasich is gaining. Not good for Cruz.
Trump is making hard play for Indiana. He did well with Illinois, Michigan and Kentucky, I think he has a good shot at Indiana.
Anyway, Cruz is not doing so hot in recent interviews. He is losing his cool too easily and avoiding direct answers (such as the Hannity debacle). For the guy who is supposed to be such a great debater, these recent flubs are not good to see.
Next Tuesday will be much the same as yesterday. Cruz will lose badly (as you probably already anticipated), and it will affect him going forward.
And an additional category of Trump voters who wouldn’t vote for anyone else. The crossover Democrats who think he would be the easiest for Hillary to beat, and they are absolutely right.
Registered voters in New York are:
Democrats – 5,649,934.
Republicans – 2,826,913
Most of those Republicans are Rockefeller type Republicans. As some call them, RINOs. Ted Cruz probably didn’t believe he would get much traction in such a state. I think he put out the effort in New York that he did just to stay in the spotlight. He will not do much better in any of the NE states. He needs a really good effort in Indiana and California. He can’t win a majority before the convention, but he may deny Trump the delegates he needs for a first ballot win. Then it’s OPEN and anything can happen. And, shudder, probably will.
Neo:
“Trump (helped by the activist alt-right) is a magnet for this emotion–a magnet that has not only attracted the feeling, but has purposely amplified it for his own purposes.”
The activist process involves more than “magnet” and “amplify”. Activism is no less than sociology weaponized, industrialized.
Yes, “magnet” and “amplify” can describe some of the basic process of seeking out, cultivating and growing, and harvesting discontent. Discontented emotion and feeling from ressentiment, alienation, and anomie are the core layer of social activist movements. But stopping development there in the activist process just gives you a basic mob, which can be crudely effective and deployable, but it’s not sufficiently developed yet to sustain the Gramscian long march, compete versus sophisticated activist competition, and secure the social dominance needed to progressively reify and harden one’s preferred social condition.
A modern weaponized, industrialized social activist movement is engineered from a basic mob by molding and structuring the discontent (while continuing to cultivate and grow and harvest the raw discontent) with the manufacturing of redefined norms, stigmas, and paradigms that reconstruct the social cultural/political ecosystem. Aka, the Overton window, the critical Narrative contest for the zeitgeist of the activist game.
Of course, as Saul Alinsky warned, once the insurgency succeeds, then economic factors must be accounted for. But social engineering and control of critical social nodes can protect the kernel if economic considerations lag. Though, of course, competitors may exploit the resulting discontent with their own activism, which is a threat because the inherently stronger position for activists is insurgency – the famed counter-revolutionary. Counter-activism is a different kind of test for activists. As the Ivy League pro-military activists showed by their victory over ‘SJW’ Left activists on their supposed home turf, counter-activism is a different game.
The activist process only seems sinister to many conservatives because they associate activism with opponent social activist movements such as the proximate Left-activist Gramscian march and now the Left-mimicking alt-Right, or perhaps, historical social activist movements like the Nazis and Communists.
But in fact, activism is method, not ideology; again, it’s just sociology applied on a modern industrial scale. People is people, and activism is the power of the people available to anyone for any cause. And against anyone for any cause.
Good guys win with social activist movements, too, whether it’s the Ivy League pro-military counter-Left activists who outplayed elite campus leftists or the Founding Fathers who engineered a revolutionary social activist movement that wrested our nation from a paternal global empire.
The center of gravity for Trump’s success has not been Trump the candidate nor the Trump campaign. The creative engine of the Trump phenomenon has been the Left-mimicking Trump-front alt-Right activists who have progressively worked from the orbital fringes inward to progressively redefine, chip then tear away, and reorganize chunks of traditional constituency from the decaying center of gravity on the Right into the alternative orbit of the activist Trump phenomenon.
Alt-Right activists, by adapting a playbook that’s proven against conservatives and the GOP, have cultivated and harvested the basic discontent, manufactured their social activist movement, and engineered the building blocks of their Gramscian long march to displace competitors, starting with conservatives (“cuckservatives”) like their leftist role models displaced liberals, and take over their working space in the American political landscape, enroute to eventually reifying the alt-Right’s preferred social condition.
On the other hand, conservatives are besieged right now as the consequence of their own willful negligence in rejecting the activism that’s necessary to compete for real in the only social cultural/political game there is.
The key for their survival and resurgence in the evolutionary struggle is conservatives must collectively recognize, accept, and undertake their own sufficiently competitive social activist movement. If and when conservatives make that fundamental switch, then it’ll be a new game, because for activists, there’s no such thing as permanent defeat. For social activist movements, there’s social dominance or insurgency.
As a constitutional conservative…I have been so happy to have someone to vote for that has my political beliefs. Donald Trump, to me is a progressive Republican. He is foul mouthed, and vulgar. I once said I would vote for anyone who wins the nomination. The more Donald whines, and berates Ted Cruz, the less likely I am to vote for him. He isn’t any different than Hillary. He can be bought.
For people that want an example of “activism”, look up the Gamergate wiki.
http://gamergate.wikia.com/wiki/Gamergate_/_Quinnspiracy_Wiki
The wikipedia article on the other side is… how shall I say this, controlled by the usual suspects.
https://ymarsakar.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/why-gamergate-is-a-pretty-interesting-rebel-movement/
Has a video I found that is a good summary.
This just demonstrates and proves that activism is not merely about politics or Marxism, as most people would first conclude. It’s about cultural wars, but what are cultural wars? When you have gamers getting involved, that’s something serious to make them concerned.
Eh, who really cares? Y’all think Cruz is any different than trump, clinton or anyone else running for president? It’s all meaningless as they all protect their own.
We need a constitutional convention to modify the constitution and limit the federal govt. Until then, it doesn’t matter one lick who’s president. None of them are ever gonna do anything to hurt or limit their careers or power, Cruz included.
An appeal to heaven
Trump as nominee will lose to any dem by a wide, as in landslide, margin. Why? Because he is a dem-lite and has only a reality tv resume that has buffoon in chief stamped across his forehea . Sheesh, even his own children and many of his inner circle failed to switch their registration to vote in the NY primary. As Homer would say, “Duh”. Soon there will be a new product: Donald’s Donuts. The best, greatest,YUGE! donuts ever.
This is not a real campaign, it is not about securing the nomination and winning the general. Its all about pumping up the brand name which the donald insists is worth 3 or 4 billion, depending upon the previous day of the week.
We need a constitutional convention to modify the constitution and limit the federal govt.
What’s the point of a convention that has Cruzes and Trumps and Clintons there? If you don’t think an election will resolve anything, what makes you think putting POLITICIANS up to rewriting a Constitution is going to save you?
I summarized Trump’s support as 3 pillars.
Alt Right Red Pill people, betrayed Republicans and conservatives like the Tea Party or Palin, and former/current Democrats that are used to Demoncrat tricks of the trade and corruption deals.
Ymarsakar Says:
Strategically the GOP has to be purged first…
From skirmishes with the alt-right, I came to realize that this can’t be done (it started as my default position too). The “establishment” is really just a collection of status-quo-minded people. Even if we win (whoever “we” is), they won’t just evaporate. If we disenfranchise them, they will lie in wait to strike us.
It seems the only solution is power sharing, with them as junior partners.
I’m pretty sure the alt-right aren’t going to do that, though. They’re too self-righteous, angry, and paranoid.
K-E Says:
Trump will get to 1237.
I doubt it, but it will depend on Indiana and California. Also, Trump must not stumble anywhere or 1237 will disappear.
Nate Silver believes he’ll finish at 1170.
c Says:
Eh, who really cares? Y’all think Cruz is any different than trump, clinton or anyone else running for president?
There’s that cynicism I keep talking about.
@ Ymarsakar
please go read up on article V (the creators of constitution were geniuses for including this). a constitutional convention is done by the states (as in state govt) not federal politicians of which everyone running for pres is so the fed’s wouldn’t be represented at the convention. the states have the power to radically change how and what the federal govt can do and that’s where change needs to happen. a constitutional convention doesn’t involve the feds at any level: the whole process is driven by the states.
there’s an huge economic storm (guaranteed recession & huge trillion dollar debt) on the near horizon and we need real leaders to step and solve it. none of the yahoos running for president are those types of leaders. due to this storm, a convention will probably be forced in a couple years when the shtf.
we need the states to pass amendments for term limits, balanced budgets, reducing power of federal govt to what it’s meant to be. we can’t rely on the politicians to do it b/c they know they’ll be voted out when they turn the tap off. only the states can do it
this is why it doesn’t matter who’s elected. they’re all in bed together. the conservatives don’t have the balls as we’ve seen.
hopefully when this storm hits (and it will), the states will take the opportunity to not let a crisis go to waste (to borrow from the libs)
.Y,
You fail to mention the 4th pillar, namely democrats in open primary/caucus states that ditched and switched to vote djt.
“There’s that cynicism I keep talking about.”
I don’t know about cynicism but it’s definitely realism :). they’re all hypocrites and non-leaders. they speak a lot of meaningless words
i’m not a fan of any of them but the one speaking the most truth is trump, though i doubt he’d actually keep his words if he got elected
he’s correct on medical system; try going to any other type of business and not knowing how much you’ll pay til weeks later — it’s fraud. this is one of the economic storms i mentioned above…shtf soon on this (see united health)
cruz, the favorite around here, wants to increase the individual tax rate by 50% and add a VAT — rofl
cruz wants to cut taxes so tha you can put your return on a postcard — hahahahahaha – yeah if he was serious he would’ve proposed this already in congress. he won’t be able to do it as president b/c president’s don’t write bills
cruz wanted to uphold a bill to ban the sales of sex toys in the state of TX — a “conservative” who argued that i have no right to engage in commerce in a store or home nor did i have the right to stimulate my own genitals – thank God he lost
trump said he’d make Mexico pay for a wall through remittances. yeah, it’d work
so trump speaks some truth, cruz is a liar & fraud, the dem’s are…well, you know what they are. and i’m cynical? i wanna know why the american people keep putting up with it
it’s only by our consent…
c,
Okay, I am more than sympathetic to Article 5 as a possible means to take back what DC has usurped per the 9th and 10tth. But such a move, if successful will mean civil war. Old, but still a good shot at 400, sign me up.
C,
And make sure your cover is many yards away from mine as I am prone when sleepy to slit throats accidentally.
@Matt_SE – the cynics in this world don’t really have much value to add. They like to pretend they are smart by some witty blurb, but they really don’t have any serious answers or path forward to suggest.
One form of cynicism is the “blow it all up” crowd. Their ignorance is particularly dangerous. They vastly over simplify the “with what?” question. And, they vastly underrate the organization and the cohesive underlying governing principles it takes to be viable.
With few Trump supporters eschewing the notion of any principles, the end result would simply be chaos.
Little good ever comes from chaos. But, rathert, this creates a window of opportunity for the worst of humanity to emerge.
.
.
In the near future, predictably, there will be much press about Trump’s so called “momentum” (is it really so, or is it a calendar effect with clusters of states favorable to Trump in close succession?), as Trump simply meets known expectations.
Many with an interest in seeing Trump as the nominee (including many Dems, and Dem leaning media, who read the same polls the rest of us do) will be pushing this story line hard.
The reality is, as you point out, that Trump must win delegates by sizable margins in Indiana and California to reach 1237.
The only “momentum” to worry about is how many top GOP and other “respected” conservative voices will actually jump over and opportunistically endorse Trump (let alone feign “neutrality”, ala Limbaugh). The kind of signalling this represents could create a herd rush by those who are less beholding to principle.
Many around us are doing their d*mndest to fabricate that “signal”.
Even if we win (whoever “we” is), they won’t just evaporate.
Looking at social media, the feminists haven’t evaporated nor have their power on university campus prisons been broken either. But there is a difference between communities defending themselves from Leftist subversion vs the ones who just roll over. Of course, I can’t really think of a situation where an institution had been taken back from the Left, without first destroying it.
I think if people put up a good enough fight, they’ll be able to carve out enough of a space to get their bases running. All insurgents would like a “base” of operations, with unbroken supply lines. The Jihadists have their Leftist allies supplying them that logistics, but in AMerica, patriots have far less powerful ways to get logistics to wage the fight. That’s why taking over an existing political base and organization like the GOp seems like such a sweet deal. Less work. Although Alt Right has never run a political organization, they have run an internet community and sub culture, which at times, is just as cut throat and ruthless. There’s probably been more under the table deals over the internet than there ever was in the corrupt prostitution halls of DC. Just not as large or as evil.
we need the states to pass amendments for term limits, balanced budgets, reducing power of federal govt to what it’s meant to be. we can’t rely on the politicians to do it b/c they know they’ll be voted out when they turn the tap off. only the states can do it
The States that allowed the Democrats to enslave blacks, the States that allowed Waco 1 and Waco 2 to happen with zero consequences to the feds and local death squads. Those State Politicians will surely save the nation, right. In Wisconsin, the State Pols even happened to get their Walker supporters SWAT raided, what they call swatted with a gag order. That’s some great constitutional convention rewriters there.
Even the cynics underestimate the actual degree of threat here.
To go back to Matt’s point about the establishment, the majority of people don’t matter. What matters is the hierarchy. The Left has a bunch of brain dead zombies too, but fighting every single SJW, Leftist drone and cannonfodder Obey their Orders at all Costs minion isn’t the point. It’s part of the process, but taking over the objective revolves around taking over high functions in the hierarchy. The thing about a hierarchy is that once you take over the top positions, the entire organization bends knee. Otherwise they just fragment.
So what matters for people who want to take over the GOP is taking out the power brokers, not the “masses of people” disagreeing on the internet. Those people don’t matter, they never did, and their votes are canceled by millions of Dead Democrats and Republicans who still vote Democrat.
You fail to mention the 4th pillar, namely democrats in open primary/caucus states that ditched and switched to vote djt.
Parker, that’s included in the 3rd pillar, current Democrats. By current, they plan to remain with the Democrats, but still stump for Trump.
As for the rest of the Demoncrat’s line of battle, I consider them mercenaries. They’ll stay loyal so long as Clinton, SEIU, and Trump hands them fist fuls of cash. Wouldn’t consider them a pillar though as a result.
Parker, I’m almost with you on the last stand reference. It will come down to that before long. What else do we have at this point?
As I liquidate my business, and next home and property for an exit out of California, it only gets worse here. The state now has complete control of ground water which means a tightening noose on valley farms and food production, all the while obstructing new dam construction while continuing to release water into the ocean for environmentalists. Water deliveries in the lower San Joaquin Valley will be at 40% this year – after a normal rainfall season. They’ve had zero above ground water delivered the last two years.
As if the water fiasco isn’t enough, the state under pressure from environmentalists is taking over huge sections of the Sierra and Coast Range by placing what remains of private property there into conservancies. In the long run this means state control of land use over vast areas. It is a never ending assault on private property, first through control of water, and then direct control through state zoning.
The one thing leftist idiots should not mess around with is food production. I see this as a ticking time bomb. Time to head for the hinterlands.
The one thing leftist idiots should not mess around with is food production. I see this as a ticking time bomb. Time to head for the hinterlands.
Weren’t you that guy who called me paranoid on various issues? Or was that the other chuck.
a constitutional convention is done by the states (as in state govt) not federal politicians
I said politicians. A search of the first person to write “federal politicians” is you, C. So what you are arguing against is not my position, but it’s an illusion of a position.
Here’s something that Chuck saw back here, with Neo’s reply partially quoted.
“The Other Chuck” then announced his attention to stop commenting at the blog.
People come and go here all the time, as they wish. But I think the substantive issue “Chuck” raised is an important one. I don’t think Obama has murdered anyone. But my answer is that tyrants–true tyrants–rarely advertise what they will do in advance of getting power, and even in their initial years in power they don’t necessarily resort to violence if they don’t have to.
That’s what makes it difficult sometimes to tell in advance what a person in power will do, and how far that person will go in terms of brutality until he/she does it. The world is replete with instances of this, but the ones that come immediately to mind for me are Castro and Ayatollah Khomeini (I wrote about the promises of the latter, and how different they were from what he actually did when he got the chance, here). And you won’t find Hitler’s name on any orders for death camps, either.
It’s not common for leaders to comes to power saying they are going to murder a lot of people, especially in their own country. No, the Reign of Terror happens afterwards, sometimes a substantial number of years afterwards.-Neo
http://neoneocon.com/2015/07/21/what-does-the-hard-left-have-in-mind-for-america/
How does it feel, Chuck, to become “extreme and bonkers” with this ironic set of lines: I see this as a ticking time bomb. Time to head for the hinterlands.
Y, I stand by my assertion and Neo’s agreement with it that Obama has not murdered anyone. That people are rolling up and leaving California for other states is not exactly extreme thinking. There are a number of reasons other than the ones I mentioned. There is good reason to believe that given the overwhelming liberal presence in this state that things will continue to deteriorate, agriculture being just one.
You want a list? California has the highest and most burdensome state tax structure. It is diverting infrastructure spending away from needed projects like building dams and repairing freeways to boondoggles like high speed rail and poorly used public transit. It has an increasing population of uneducated and/or illiterate economic refugees from Mexico and Central America. The liberal controlled state government is doing everything it possibly can to thwart new business investment from occurring while it actively runs existing businesses out with ever increasing regulations like our version of cap and trade. It has probably the nations highest electric rates outside of Hawaii and also the most expensive gasoline. State mandates at the county level and ever increasing mitigation fees, zoning hurdles, and delays have almost stopped new development resulting in excessive rents and expanding homelessness and crime. The state prison population is the largest in the nation which has resulted in outsourcing prisoners to prisons elsewhere or forcing county jails to house violent criminals that belong in state prisons. As a result of this, petty crimes are not being prosecuted because there is no room for prisoners at the county level. This results in homeowners forced to set up surveillance cameras, bar their windows and doors, and arm themselves – in a state with increasing attacks on the 2nd Amendment by the above mentioned liberal legislature.
So my friend Y, someone who decides to leave this sinking ship is an extremist? No, a realist.
So my friend Y, someone who decides to leave this sinking ship is an extremist? No, a realist.
Internet associate, “friend” is rather too close a relationship.
Realism is a matter of subjective feelings for you, Chuck. A year or so ago, I was “bonkers” to you because you rejected that reality. Now, you’re worried enough to leave, but you don’t think of yourself as “bonkers” because you like your self rationalizations and justifications. It’s a rather mundane human nature flaw.
That’s why it usually doesn’t matter to me whether people believe me or not, whether they take me seriously or not. You can ignore the heat in the kitchen all you want, Chuck, as you did before when you thought I wasn’t worth your time (other than by insulting and dismissing). No matter how much your attempt to lower other people’s status, especially online, it won’t improve your own status quo situation. Especially all the things I’ve proclaimed, are truer than you want to accept, and being true, you will have to deal with it, whether you like it or not. Whether you want to leave or not, isn’t something I concern myself with. But that’s only a faint fraction of the things I’ve discussed here.