Reflections on yesterday’s primaries
Yesterday Trump did well, in the 30s and 40s (except for Idaho, where he fell to the 20s). This is the pattern he has established. The difference between earlier primaries and more recent ones is that Ted Cruz has broken away from the pack and is a strong and fairly consistent #2.
It also continues to be clear that the number of people not voting for Donald Trump is greater than the number of people voting for him. And it’s become even more starkly apparent, now that Cruz has gotten closer and closer to Trump—winning in Idaho and edging out Kasich in Michigan, which is impressive because Michigan does not represent Cruz’s natural constituency—that Rubio and Kasich must drop out and yet it’s unlikely that they will drop out before March 15 and perhaps even after.
To those of us who want Cruz to be the nominee rather than Trump (and “want” is a mild word for it), their perseverance is one of the more frustrating aspects of a very frustrating primary season.
However, were it to become a two-person race, that’s no guarantee that Cruz would beat Trump. But I suspect he would. It would at the very least be a good thing to get a chance to see what would actually happen between the two, mano a mano—the outsiders slugging it out, with contrasting styles and history. I’d like to see one of them (Cruz, obviously) win it outright rather than go to a brokered convention, which I believe would cause even more lasting enmity among the various wings of the GOP than we’ve already seen so far—and that’s a lot of enmity.
Although I strongly believe that Rubio and Kasich are hurting Cruz a great deal, they might also be serving the function of getting us to a brokered convention by siphoning just enough votes away from Cruz and/or Trump to keep either of them from gaining the requisite number. If you think the fight has been bitter and heated so far, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet compared to a brokered convention.
[NOTE: How do they decide the number of delegates each state receives? I noticed that in the Hawaii caucuses there were about 13,000 participants, and in Michigan there were around 1,300,000 voters (with around 90% reporting), or about 100 times that. And yet Michigan only gets about three times as many delegates as Hawaii. What’s up with that?
That link I just gave has a handy chart that tells a lot about the primaries in each state and how delegates are awarded. It seems to me that states with larger Republican populations should get proportionately more delegates than they actually get.]
Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in Michigan by appealing to the same white, working-class, anti-establishment voters to which Trump appeals. Those passionate Sanders supporters are going to get royally screwed by the “superdelegates” that the Democrat establishment created to insure that the insiders would pick the nominee, rather than the hoi polli. When that reality sinks in to those people, who are they going to break for? I don’t think they’re going to get back in line like good little Clinton supporters.
“To those of us who want Cruz to be the nominee rather than Trump (and “want” is a mild word for it)”
A hunger but not a craving.
“If you think the fight has been bitter and heated so far, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet compared to a brokered convention.”
If you think that a brokered convention that picks somebody other than the top vote getter will have a good outcome, you are insane.
The top vote-getter so far is Trump, and will probably still be Trump at the convention.
Trump won’t care about being the VP, so he will walk. And a loarge number of the people who voted for him will also walk. They won’t turnout to vote for whatever crap loser candidate the GOP tries to shove down their throat.
Ask Presidents Dole, McCain, and Romney.
I don’t think the convention will be bitter and heated at all. If Trump is behind, he’ll bow out. If Trump is ahead, he’ll insist that he should be the candidate.
Jeez, read his book. WHat does he have a history of doing if he thinks he is being treated unfairly?
I just watched Trump’s speech last night over at Powerline. He always says the same damned things. He is still lying about Trump U and his wonderful companies. I would love to see him in a one on one with Cruz with no moderators.
BTW, he owes the TV stations a bundle for all the free advertising they have given him.
I do agree that the Trump voters I know will mostly not vote at all to be spiteful. (Full disclosure: I only know three very enthusiastic Trump voters.) I do have one Republican friend who says he will absolutely vote for Hillary. It is a mess. Just a mess.
Kasich I believe is planning to leverage his delegates to be VP.
He will stay in the race.
Rubio is too egotistical to play for VP.
‘TV stations a bundle for all the free advertising they have given him.’
I watched CNN for 20 minutest today and they went on and on about Trump’s great victories, implying without actually stating that he swept all the March 8 primaries/caucuses. Didn’t mention that fourth state or who won it once.
This is beyond unethical and the reason why journalists consistently score the lowest on ‘most trusted profession’ polls behind dictators, terrorists and serial killers.
‘That link I just gave has a handy chart that tells a lot about the primaries in each state and how delegates are awarded.’
It seems to give no detailed information about the primaries in the territories and DC though.
“…for all the free advertising they have given him.”
The networks (MSM) are doing that intentionally.
By emphasizing Trump’s and his all too often over-the-top screwiness, along with the excesses of not a few of his supporters, they fervently intend to tar the GOP, believing that this will ultimately help the Democratic party—i.e., Hillary—despite the two jokers that are contending for the Democratic nomination (more specifically, despite Hillary’s awful, lackluster campaign and her utter lack of abilities).
It’s all pretty transparent.
The network coverage of Trump Is beyond ridiculous at this point. They continue to let him phone into the
morning shows, and basically allow him as much time as he wants to say whatever he wants without giving other candidates equal time I get why they are doing it, Trump drives viewership and ratings plus there is the added bonus of making it likely that Trump will run against Clinton and lose. So it’s win-win for them. But outrageous none-the-less.
CV Says:
March 9th, 2016 at 11:28 am
The network coverage of Trump Is beyond ridiculous at this point. They continue to let him phone into the
morning shows, and basically allow him as much time as he wants to say whatever he wants without giving other candidates equal time I get why they are doing it, Trump drives viewership and ratings plus there is the added bonus of making it likely that Trump will run against Clinton and lose. So it’s win-win for them. But outrageous none-the-less.”
When will the networks start preening about their “rope-a-dope” strategy of defeating the Republican party.
Of course the networks are not to blame for “open primaries”.
Saw this morning that Carly Firorina endorsed Cruz. Probably makes little difference in the grand scheme of things; but, it makes me feel better.
If Cruz pulls it off, Kasich would not be a bad choice for VP. Of course, I would love to see Carly on the ticket.
I am simply mystified by Mississippi. Some pundits were chortling that Trump won big with Evangelicals there. How could any Christian, or any religious person, find Trump acceptable? Of course, I write snarkily, Mississippi has traditionally had the lowest rated public education in the country–until California decided to challenge. Or, maybe Trump bought the state. If so, he will probably file for bankruptcy. Not him of course; he doesn’t do bankruptcy– his state.
Come on, Neo, surely you understand caucus participation and primary participation are fundamentally different commitments in time and effort. The formula for delegates a state is assigned is based not on turnout, but on registrations and party strength historically within a state, as it should be.
This race is over, as will be apparent this coming Tuesday. Cruz needed to build on the momentum of Saturday, but didn’t. Winning just Idaho last night wasn’t enough.
With the coming winner take all contests, it is even very unlikely that a brokered convention is a probable event, now.
fred:
“WHat does he have a history of doing if he thinks he is being treated unfairly?”
Why don’t you acknowledge that his whole life, Trump has treated anyone who gets between him and what he wants as “unfairly” as he can, even the little people, using lies, smears, character assassination, threats and intimidation, and expensive nuisance litigation to literally crush any resistance. The country of Scotland loathes him for doing all that in building his loser of a golf course there.
Neo has covered all this extensively in the last few weeks. Or do you admire that kind of behavior as as a sign of strength?
He’s done it consistently this entire campaign, but his vitriol is turned backwards and aimed at conservatives, who have done a hell of a lot more to fight the GOPe and Obama in the last five years than Trump has done his entire liberal life.
First, he trashed a good man, Ben Carson, and Cruz non-stop since then. Relatively speaking, I’ve seen very little from him against his BFF, Hillary nor the other Marxist either.
My issue is, and continues to be, Trump’s obviously buffoonish behavior and a track record of “expediency.” He is not on “our” side. He is not on anyone’s side but his own. While I still suspect he’s working with Hillary, he’s so duplicitous that if I were Hillary, I wouldn’t trust him either. “Truth” is not a concept in Trump’s world. His lips move and words come out, but their sole purpose is to get him what he wants – not because they have anything to do with what is true, what he really believes, or what he actually intends to do. He’s a salesman, not support staff. He’ll say anything to sell you what he wants you buy, and then he’s gone, on to the next deal.
How ANYONE trusts this guy or believes any words he says, is beyond me. He is setting the stage to destroy us, and some people are cheering it on. While marginally less frightening than “Venezuela, here we come” Sanders, Trump is one of the worst, least viable candidates for President I have ever contemplated much less seen.
Yancey Ward:
Of course caucuses are different in participation from primaries. That’s why I added that last sentence about number of Republicans in a state.
And Trump supporters LOVE to declare it over. They’ve been doing that for ages, prematurely. And yet Trump is not that far ahead in delegates at all. As I and many others have pointed out, if the race narrows things can change dramatically.
nominate Cruz/Trump = elect Hillary
Yancey Ward:
To be even more clear, if you look at Idaho and Michigan and their populations you’ll see that the latter state has more than three times as many Republicans as the former. In addition, the caucus system gives each caucus goer more power than each voter in a primary state.
DonS:
Now, there’s a well-reasoned argument. I bow in awe at the persuasive force of the evidence you’ve amassed to support your thesis.
Trump got so much air time last night because they had nothing to show on the news shows while waiting for later results (Idaho & Hawaii) and he had won two states (one of which was very significant: Michigan). They needed to fill their air time with something. That probably made the most sense: front runner wins big states is going to do a press conference.
It just is what it is. He’s playing the game very well and everyone gets mad? I see this as evidence he could do the same against Hillary. But I guess if you just don’t like Trump, you don’t want to see this as a positive.
Still glad to see Cruz doing pretty well. Want it down to a two-man race so that we can either find out if Trump has hit his support ceiling or if Cruz is not capable to drawing in the voters who were looking at Kasich and Rubio. Until we get to that point, who knows what will happen?
Just to point out, Cruz was supposed to do well in the south and that was his plan. It didn’t work out as he thought. Some of the states left will likely go heavily for Trump.
Most interesting fact of last night: Both Trump and Sanders won the Dearborn area, which is heavily Muslim. Isn’t that interesting? A jewish man and a man who talks about limiting muslim immigration temporarily?
Starting next week, Republican primaries will be closed and winner-take-all. I continue to hope this favors Cruz, because I believe many of the crossover votes Trump has been receiving are Democrats who want to mess with the Republican primary process. We know for sure that there are many more voters showing up for the GOP primaries and many fewer voters turning out for the Dem primaries. If these are all new voters, Trump is doing a masterful job of bringing new people into the democratic process. But if, as I believe is the case, many of the “new” Republican voters are Dems who will support the Dem candidate in the general, Trump’s support is illusory. This will begin to become obvious with candidate selection starting on the 15th.
you can tell key estblishment people by the fact they commit crimes and get to keep working and not go to jail and still get hired.
Cruz
Woolsey – scammed the government, kept working, served no jail time, a key establishment member of cruz team
Abrams – sought to use drug money and blood to change governements, was convicted for iran contra, was pardoned, worked in government ever since and a key estblishment member – and CFR too (like cruz wife)
Neil Bush – Just hired, was the key criminal in the Silverado S&L scandal with daddy, and jeb. ended up costing the us taxpayers 1.3 billion… an establishment man who made a freaking fortune in that scam and avoided jail time and keeps working
Alice Stewart – Mr. Gormley could have been a supreme court justice, but her harrasmant lawsuit and withdrawel didnt help. The suit was settled in 2010, four months after Ms. Stewart sued. She and the university agreed to keep the terms secret. [so you can be sure she will make sure it all Politically Correct]
Chad Sweet – yeah, i know we are not supposed to consder cruz wife being with Goldman Sachs and CFR, but what about this man? Vice President, Goldman Sachs (1996 — 2006) / Investment Banker, Morgan Stanley (1994 — 1996) / Directorate of Operations, Central Intelligence Agency – while not an open criminal kept out of jail for being too important to the establishment, anyone ever hear about InfraGard?
Sweet is Member of the FBI’s InfraGard Advisory Board
want to know waht InfraGard is? you cant, its beyond FIA requests…
more than 23,000 representatives of private industry are working quietly with the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security. The members of this rapidly growing group, called InfraGard, receive secret warnings of terrorist threats before the public does
if you want ot know more, you can read the report
The Surveillance-Industrial Complex: How the American Government Is Conscripting Businesses and Individuals in the Construction of a Surveillance Society.
Definitely NOT establishment…
anyone want ot hear about all the outsiders in cruz campaign team connected with goldman sachs and those creepy organizations we been complaingin spying on americans
i just wonder why, in a world so full of people, that these are the people that Cruz, a constituational conservative has on his team… people who break the constituation, the rule of law, avoided jail, and are part of the surveilance of americans…
i DARE you to find one person on the Trump team that has any of that kind of history and connection.
oh. and if you want more, i can give you MORE about cruz super establishment guys and gals..
like Austen Furse: Furse admitted to Huffman that he and Best for Texas PAC had made a “mistake” by sending false and misleading advertisements to the voters of SD17 about Huffman’s work as a Criminal District Judge. accusing Joan Huffman of “signed probation deals for … child molesters,” with mug shots and descriptions of the cases.
do you really want to know about Jeff Roe?
here is what Market watch had:
nice guy… dirty dirty dirty… (guess who did that honest mistake that slammed a candidate by claiming he quit?)
times has an article about his lifetime of cheating sleaze
Behind Ted Cruz’s Campaign Manager, Scorched Earth and Election Victories
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/24/us/politics/ted-cruz-campaign-manager-jeff-roe.html?referer=&_r=0
“There is a culture in the Cruz campaign, from top to bottom,” a Rubio spokesman, Alex Conant, said, “that no lie is too big and no trick too dirty.”
Carly endorsed Ted. My dream ticket.
Both are friends of mine.
neo,
“However, were it to become a two-person race, that’s no guarantee that Cruz would beat Trump. But I suspect he would.”
I would hope that Cruz would beat Trump but given that stupidity is always in greater supply than wisdom and insight…
“It seems to me that states with larger Republican populations should get proportionately more delegates than they actually get.”
Ultimately, majority vote disenfranchises the minority. Major population centers control and rural voters have no say in their governance.
Cap’n Rusty at 7:55 am,
Some will vote for Hillary, some will not. The question is what percentage will not? The low turnout may be an indicator. Hillary has an enthusiasm problem.
fred,
“If Trump is ahead, he’ll insist that he should be the candidate.”
They can’t win with him and they can’t win without him…
expat,
“BTW, he owes the TV stations a bundle for all the free advertising they have given him.”
The media whores are being well compensated by the increased advertising revenue that their higher ratings bring in, which of course is why they offer Trump ‘free’ coverage.
Huan,
“Rubio is too egotistical to play for VP.”
Probably so, if he loses Florida, he’s out.
Steve D,
“This is beyond unethical and the reason why journalists consistently score the lowest on ‘most trusted profession’ polls behind dictators, terrorists and serial killers.”
You left out traitors, which of course is what they are, lying consistently is a sure sign of an intellectually bankrupt position.
Barry Meislin,
“It’s all pretty transparent.”
Indeed yet the cluelessness of the LIVs makes it a viable strategy for those lacking in any integrity.
CV,
“there is the added bonus of making it likely that Trump will run against Clinton and lose. So it’s win-win for them.”
A strategy with a grave potential down side, given that Trump is right on his core issues. 75% of the American public agree with his ban on Muslim migration. Just a few terrorist attacks will make Trump seem prescient to many of the LIVs. That those attacks are coming is indisputable, only when they will come is uncertain.
Oldflyer,
“If Cruz pulls it off, Kasich would not be a bad choice for VP.”
Reduced to a Cruz nominee, the GOPe would love to have a RINO as VP, waiting in the wings. The political calculus being that Kasich would bring Ohio with him.
Kyndall G,
“He is not on anyone’s side but his own. …His lips move and words come out, but their sole purpose is to get him what he wants — not because they have anything to do with what is true, what he really believes, or what he actually intends to do.”
I suspect that is incomplete and thus only partially so. I suspect that Trump is pursuing ‘enlightened self-interest’. If so, he realizes that illegal immigration and Muslim migration are not just a mortal threat to America but in turn, to him as well. Sanders and Hillary agreed 97% of the time in the Senate. Sooner or later, a government headed by such as they will look to nationalize the assets of the super rich. After all, “they didn’t build that”…
DonS,
Just for clarity’s sake, whom do you offer as an alternative?
K-E,
“Both Trump and Sanders won the Dearborn area, which is heavily Muslim. Isn’t that interesting? A jewish man and a man who talks about limiting muslim immigration temporarily?”
Thanks for pointing that out, I missed that and it is highly interesting. Perhaps many of the early arrival Muslims, who presumably emigrated to America in search of a less restrictive society… are fearful of the recent migrant’s more fundamentalist POV?
F,
“But if, as I believe is the case, many of the “new” Republican voters are Dems who will support the Dem candidate in the general, Trump’s support is illusory. This will begin to become obvious with candidate selection starting on the 15th.”
If so, that would be a crucial and determinant factor. I pray that is so.
ArtfldgrsGhost,
So ALL of them are corrupt?
“i DARE you to find one person on the Trump team that has any of that kind of history and connection.”
By the calculus of prior history, how can Trump’s history NOT count?
Geoffrey Britain,
Re: Trump’s team. Does he have one? Last night he was talking about some Yankee player from Ohio. That really boosts his foreign policy creds.
The myth that Trump is an outsider has to be debunked. He is a player in the establishment, just not what most people think of when they talk about the establishment. He has been buying influence for decades and playing the establishment game.
DJT has no desire to limit government, he wants to expand government. He has no desire to limit illegals, he hires them. Perhaps he does understand the need to limit muslim immigration, but that is about it for his ‘conservative’ bona fides.
expat,
Sure, he has one. Minimal perhaps but he’s not managing the minutia of his schedule. More importantly, Trump is not selling his ‘foreign policy creds’. Trump is selling his attitude. Think Reagan’s strategy vs the Soviets; “we win, they lose”.
He’s mad and not going to take it anymore. He’s selling the promise that he’ll do something and that his attitude and desire to “make America great again” will in the end, count for more than anything else. For the intellectually lazy, that’s sufficient.
parker,
“He has been buying influence for decades and playing the establishment game.”
That’s what the mega wealthy do. Investments and assets must be protected.
“DJT has no desire to limit government, he wants to expand government.”
Perhaps not entirely. He’s no small government conservative but he’s probably in favor of some selective deregulation.
“He has no desire to limit illegals, he hires them.”
There I can’t agree due to two factors. He wants controlled immigration not uncontrolled immigration, which is bad for business. Illegals are not frequenting his hotels. Nor are there enough of the rich to fill them up. He needs a healthy, employed middle class.
And he has to play within the conditions that exist. How cost effective is it to pay higher wages to a construction firm that does not employ illegals and, just as significantly, how many such firms can there be?
ArtfldgrsGhost Says:
March 9th, 2016 at 2:34 pm
Attacks by Democrat mouthpieces against Ted Cruz by way of his staffer — I’m STUNNED.
I never could imagine that happening.
parker
I should have put “outsider in scare quotes.
Could someone explain to me how Trump gets away with his argument that the briber is less corrupt that the bribee?
I don’t think he has the strength of character necessary to fight.
I heard Kasich interviewed the other day. He sounded as though he was apologizing for his position of resolutely refusing to apologize for being alive. He came off as strong weak man; one who handled the English language almost as well as if it were his native tongue.
If you put the Governor of Michigan and Kasich together with a microphone behind a closed door, and asked them alternating questions without knowing which was which, I doubt you could tell them apart.
I’m pretty sure you could not drive either one to tears, but some might take bets on just how close they could be driven to it.
So, all the Trump supporters who are awed by all the free media air time he gets – they aren’t going to be shocked when, if he’s the nominee, they throttle that way back and release all the oppo they’re holding back on. The MSM want Trump to be the candidate and it’s not because he’s so awesome.
What I mean is, you have to have someone who can aim their rhetorical nail gun at Hillary, and drive one right between her soulless appetite entity eyes, without seeming to be petulant, retaliating, or desperate. In other words, without being in the least emotional about it. Business, just business.
No verbal floundering, no tu quoque taint, and no wounded male emotions.
That’s what so impressed almost everyone about Fiorina.
Unfortunately she has no constituency that I know of. Republican women will not reflexively vote for her and boost the ticket “just because” she is a woman. And Democrat women will refuse to consider her despite the fact of he sex.
McCain looked like a chump who had been left standing on the side of the road by someone who promised him a ride and then drove off laughing as he put his hand to door latch; or someone who had been given a free pass to an amusement park, only to find that it was closed the day his benefactors said it was good for.
His getting chumped that way, will make what Trump receives once he is set-up to take the Republicans down, look like a big wet kiss, in comparison.
“heR sex”
GB,
Yes, the crony capitalists buy influence, that is why we call them crony capitalists. They are a part of the establishment. DJT is a very flamboyant and crude crony capitalist, but his bluster and buffoonery does not make him an “outsider”, he is a member of the establishment.
To answer your question about construction firms hiring illegals…. illegals are paid 3, 4, 5 times less than legal workers. Huge savings for the construction firms and the developers. Next time someone in your neighborhood needs a new roof or a room drywalled take a look at the crew. The only non – hispanic will be the foreman. This practice is widespread and I know several contractors who retired early rather than compete with contractors willing to hire illegals; and this is in Iowa. I am certain this SOP in NYC, for example.
The same is true at slaughter/meat packing plants. Those used to be good blue collar jobs.
You seem to believe DJT is sincere and honorable when it comes to certain issues, but I see no evidence for your belief.
Neo,
Scare quotes around outsider in reference to DJT are warranted.
DNW: yep.
DNW,
I hope you don’t think my statement to be an endorsement of Kasich, I think so little of him that he doesn’t even offend my sensibilities. Though he would as a VP nominee.
KLSmith,
The MSM want Trump to be the candidate because they think they can crucify him.
Two points; 1) that’s been the commonly held view since he started, yet he’s still on top. (hopefully the coming winner-take-all states will elevate Cruz to the nomination) and, 2) 75% of Americans agree with him on Muslim migration.
If Trump starts exposing the actual figures on illegal immigration, i.e. costs and crimes… he’ll gain a majority on that issue too.
Personally, I think the biggest factor in a Trump failure in the general election would be the refusal of the majority of republicans to vote for him. Should that occur, we shall see how much responsibility they accept for the election of Hillary Clinton.
DNW,
“That’s what so impressed almost everyone about Fiorina. Unfortunately she has no constituency that I know of. Republican women will not reflexively vote for her and boost the ticket “just because” she is a woman. And Democrat women will refuse to consider her despite the fact of he sex.”
My impulse here is to take a contrarian view. Fiorina as Cruz’s VP, IMO makes a whole lot of sense. As a VP nominee she’d get a lot of exposure, something she never really got during her campaign. The more people see her, the greater the favorable impression. I agree that voters won’t initially favor Fiorina just because she’s a woman. But once favorably impressed, I suspect her gender would become powerfully attractive to many women. And, if Hillary is the democrat nominee, Fiorina becomes a great counter weight to Clinton’s gender.
parker,
It was never my intent to suggest that Trump is an outsider. He’s a ‘betweener’. A bit of “neither fish nor fowl”.
That is my impression of the make-up of construction and non-union blue collar jobs across America, at least in urban and suburban environments. Which IMO, disqualifies criticism of Trump hiring illegals.
I lean toward accepting Trump as sincere on his major issues because I do not detect any underlying ‘lip service’ on those issues. His ‘softening’ on HB-1 visas gives me serious concern. I have yet to determine to what extent his ‘softening’ extends. When warranted, HB-1 visas are justifiable, when used as a cost cutting measure, I am adamantly opposed. I have my antenna closely attuned to Trump’s pronouncements on the key issues.
Of course, Rubio knows all the right words and sounded sincere on adamantly opposing amnesty for illegals prior to his Senate election… thus, “my jury still out on Trump”.
The only candidate in whom I have confidence is Cruz, of those who have dropped out, only Fiorina. Carson appears to be a very good man but his instincts on foreign affairs are a concern.
DNW,
Back in July I immediately considered Trump as a plant to muddy the waters and disrupt the GOP nominating process. I still think that is a very real possibility. He can’t win the general election, and if he is the ‘business genius’ his true believers believe he is, he knows that. The only question is what has he been promised? OTOH, he may be so deep into his YUGEness now that he is the front runner he believes he is inevitable. Knave and fool in spades.
GB,
Are you suggesting that djt does not realize the contractors on his projects hire illegals, and thus lower djt’s construction costs? Trump is a crony capitalist (aka a member of the establishment), a blustering buffoon, a crude megalomaniac, a liar, a charlatan, etc, etc, but he is not unaware. He is not clueless.
I know you are not a djt cultist, but making excuses for djt is not in the best interests of someone who supports limited government, life, liberty, and the individual pusuit of happiness. As a teen I made a big mistake that I will not go into, but my dad let me spend a night in county lockup and the next morning asked me “What made you think you knew what he was thinking?” 🙂
KLSmith Says:
March 9th, 2016 at 5:56 pm
So, all the Trump supporters who are awed by all the free media air time he gets — they aren’t going to be shocked when, if he’s the nominee, they throttle that way back and release all the oppo they’re holding back on. The MSM want Trump to be the candidate and it’s not because he’s so awesome.
&&&&&&&&
Preach it.
GB: yes Trump is on top now because it’s not the general election. he has not yet faced a full barrage of attack ads. if he’s the nominee, I guess he has a chance if he’s facing Hillary. She’s that bad.
As per neo’s wishes, there will be plenty of time later to discuss who’s going to vote or not vote for whoever that may be. But, I don’t think it would be immoral or irresponsible for those that live in reliably red or blue states to vote their conscience. Swing state folks may have more of a dilemna.
Parker
“To answer your question about construction firms hiring illegals…. illegals are paid 3, 4, 5 times less than legal workers.
%%%%
It’s not that extreme — but merely being half-off is MORE than enough to sweep the board.
One must also adjust for the sloth and wastage ALWAYS to be found with immigrant construction gangs.
Since labor expense TOTALLY dominates the expense of any contractor, even a 30% discount is enough to seal the deal.
You will not find illegals — typically — in skilled trades:
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL & INSTITUTIONAL:
Electrical
HVAC
Plumbing
Elevators
DataCom
etc.
So Trump’s projects largely will NOT be hiring illegals.
They are literally too bumbling to perform the work — even if they worked for free.
( Re-work to correct errors is a back-breaker in the construction trades. It’s normally the difference between profit and loss.
( Hence the obsession in the trades with seasoned foremen, the primary line of defense.
( Their role is so intense that they last about as long as NFL linebackers.
Many of Trump’s projects received government favors.
The tit for tat is normally that the project MUST pay Davis-Bacon wages.
So, Trump actually has a STRONG under pinning from the construction trades.
If you’re building in Manhattan, you use union labor for everything. Period.
&&&&&&&
Illegals utterly dominate TRACT HOUSING.
That’s it.
Here and there, you’ll see illegals in Small Scale Commercial:
Drywall
Plaster (taping and mudding of drywall)
Tile
Flooring of all types
Concrete
Pools
Insulation ( extreme turn-over as it’s less fun than coal mining )
Roofing
Ditching (manually) no-one puts illegals on machines
Framing in wood…but uncommon in thin steel.
{ It’s the skill level required. They don’t have skills.
Also delivery drivers for construction materials.
Trump’s projects are — uniformly — TOO BIG to permit illegal labor.
Trump could count on a wildcat strike.
The illegals could count on being beaten to the edge of death.
And… they’d have no-one to turn to.
Those born outside the US would EXPECT no succor from the authorities.
Every step they take is like Dr. Richard Kimble — the fugitive.
parker,
Of course djt realizes that the contractors on his projects hire illegals, and thus lower his construction costs.
That’s the current environment, as a businessman, he can’t change it and I doubt he loses a moment’s sleep over it.
Which doesn’t mean that he MAY not realize that short term benefits have lead to long term negatives for the country and left unchecked, will also negatively impact him in the future. Thus his desire to bring immigration and migration under control. He wants to continue to work within a system that he understands, not flounder in an out of control environment.
On the other hand, he may be entirely motivated by an animal cunning that recognizes the mood of the country and like any demagogue, gets in front of it and means to ride it to greater power.
It can even be both.
Smith…
I’m in California.
My vote never counts past county level.
Yes I am sure it has been very frustrating for the only conservative candidate sure to win the general steal votes from Conservative Jesus, a guy who will come oh so close to hearing Hillary but fall just short.
Cruz helped make Trump by legitimizing him. He and every other candidate them hoped to make it a race between them and Trump, a Mexican standoff that doomed every non Trump candidate.
At this point I’m not sure if I want the Cruz faction to lose the general so they will finally sober up or the Trump faction to be embarrassed by a crushing loss so they leave altogether.
Decisions, decisions.
Hearing= beating
GB, blert,
You both are seemingly unaware of the damage illegals do in lowering wages in my corner of flyover country. It is significant. Plus, the strain they put on school districts and medical services seems absent from your calculations.
blert, especially. Electrical and plumbing contractors hire illegals to do the grunt work. They have foremen to make sure the work is up to code. Many illegal hispanics are highly skilled. True, many hispanics are not elevator inspectors, but now you are talking about how many union members can dance on the head of a pin.
“I doubt he loses a moment’s sleep over it.”
Great GB! What a sterling endorsement for the donald. Wow, why not bribe city councils, mayors, and judges to invoke eminent domain to force aging widows to turn over their homes for limo parking lots? What is next? Trump wants to build a golf course on my family’s Minnesota lake front property, and I am supposed to rollover, piss my pants, and pant like a beta dog because the donald is the alpha dog? NO THANK YOU, the wind may blow but I do not bend with the wind.
Parker- funny, I never heard about this wage issue pre 2007 crash even though that was the height of illegal immigration.
Also, if supporting wages is the goal, shouldn’t we support Unions? For America?
Holmes,
Pre 2007 really? That is how far back your memory stretches? Childern say the strangest things.
I believe that the problem with Rubio not dropping out is that Cruz IS the alternative – Rubio wants – desperately – to be the footnote “First Hispanic” in the record books. Cruz is the one that could take that away from him.