Carson surpasses Trump in Iowa poll
I’m not sure whether this poll has any significance, but I report it.
Ace has the following to say about it:
This might just be one poll but Carson has been shown ahead of Trump in Iowa before.
Allah goes deeper into it, and finds it to be a very bad poll for Trump beyond the toplines. 30% of Iowa voters say they definitely would not vote for Trump, which is higher than resistance to Bush, and certainly higher to resistance to Carson (which is only at 4%).
Every once in a while there’s a poll that’s really bad for Trump and everyone jumps on it…This could just be one of those occasional bad polls for Trump, or we could see the emergence of the Establishment’s new favorite stalking horse to take down Trump — Ben Carson.
Well, it’s Iowa, Jake. I wouldn’t expect the state to be a Trump stronghold, although he’s been doing well there so far for the most part.
In addition, the idea of Carson as a possible establishment tool doesn’t seem right. He may, however, be someone the “establishment” would be happy to see taking over from Trump, although he certainly doesn’t seem to be an establishment figure.
Other observations: I think the Ben Carson phenomenon has been underrated and under-discussed so far in the news, and that’s purposeful. After all, the fact that attack dog Trump has been doing well fits the “Republicans are nasty, bigoted, crass stupidheads” narrative far better than Republican support of calm, nice-guy-demeanored, African-American Carson does.
I don’t think the MSM would quite know what to do with him should Carson become the frontrunner. Of course, there’s always “he has no experience,” but that was true to a large extent of Obama, which somewhat undermines the argument. There’s also “he’s not a real black person,” but that’s not the strongest of attacks either, is it, when you’re trying to advance the idea that the GOP is bigoted? Carson may not be a real black person by the MSM’s definition of real black people (they must be liberal or leftist), but he’s black, and he’s real, and he’s a person.
Lastly, they could always trot out women to accuse him of sexual harassment, which is a favored line of attack against people of his general description (remember Cain). But I happen to think it will be very difficult to find candidates for that particular tactic with Carson.
How would I remember this? I wouldn’t, but Pat Buchanan would:
“Iowa is the ideal terrain for a religious-social conservative to upset Trump, as Mike Huckabee showed in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.
In Iowa, for example, Ronald Reagan was defeated by George H. W. Bush in 1980. Vice President Bush was defeated by Bob Dole and Pat Robertson in 1988.”
A Republican caucus in Iowa is not like a caucus anywhere else, I think.
I call BS on this one. Trump has been crushing the rest of the field in almost every other poll. Carson, on the other hand, has taken a hiatus from campaigning to go sell his new book and we haven’t heard anything from him for at least a week. This does not make for a sudden massive shift in polling data.
I will see Ted Cruz tomorrow. I saw him early and he has big support with church people. Carson is working that same demo.
I suspect Ted’s support amongst church people is undercounted.
And recall that Gallup has stopped polling this cycle; too unreliable.
Restated, this church network in Iowa is big. That’s how Santorum won last time.
The Carson phenomenon is definitely underreported but in part because it is quite baffling; at least to me, to most people I know (on various points of the political spectrum) and, probably to the media (both mainstream and conservative) as well.
I understand Trump’s appeal and the rationale behind his candidacy (though I am largely unsympathetic to it. I understand Fiorina’s appeal and the rationale behind her candidacy (and I am largely sympathetic to it). Carson? What exactly does he have to offer besides, like Trump and Fiorina, his status as an “outsider”?
I respect Carson’s accomplishments; he has likely done more good for humanity than all the other candidates combined. But he strikes me as an unbelievably weak candidate. Substance wise, he is about as superficial as Trump and his knowledge of policy (or even basic facts about government) seems even more limited. Like Trump, he’s prone to controversial comments; unlike Trump he does not forcefully respond when criticized for the same.
Most significantly, from what I’ve seen, unlike Trump, Fiorina or even Cruz, his speeches are not terribly rousing or sonorous. He speaks in an a restrained and rather aloof voice and his mannerisms are similar. I cannot fathom him managing the acrimony if and when the liberal knives really come out.
Lastly, his stunt in taking two weeks off to sell books adds to my confusion. It certainly casts doubt on his seriousness as a candidate.
And yet, he is solidly in second place in almost all polls; and, as we see, occasionally first. I would love to hear speculation as to why. Or, if there are any Carson supporters amongst us, a brief explanation of your support.
Ackler,
There are several things at work. First, Carson’s stands on things are based on life experience, not indoctrination. Second, his restaint is probably very refreshing to many who are trumped out. Third, he is not a radical black, but the kind of person almost anyone would love to have as a neighbor and friend.Holder wanted more discussions on race. Carson makes us all want more discussions on everything else.
There is one more thing: I can’t imagine Trump being able to put together and hold a competent cabinet, but I can easily see Carson willing to listen to and work with others.
Vdare writer has an opinion about the poll:
” I suggest the Trump support is being understated by a kind of reverse Bradley/Wilder effect. This is named from the observation that when Tom Bradley lost the governor’s race in California in 1982 and Douglas Wilder won the Virginia governor’s race in 1989 their results were appreciably weaker than polls had suggested. The idea was that respondents were reluctant to admit they did not want to vote for a Black.
A generation later the issue is that admitting you support Trump is very likely to unleash vicious rage from Leftists and petulant hostility from Conservatism Inc types. Supporting Trump is not cool! I have experienced this in my own family circle.
So the easy way out is declaring for Carson. But that proportion of the Carson which is really anti-Establishment is likely eventually to go for Trump. Carson’s extraordinary numbers are probably much bloated by covert Trump sympathizers”
Redstate thinks: “This poll echoes what we are seeing in other polls. There is a core group of GOP voters this year who are intent upon nominating someone from outside the political mainstream. Their candidates are Carson, Trump, and Fiorina. We can expect that number to churn between them and unless some of their support falls away to ‘traditional’ candidates one of them will take the nomination.”
vanderleun:
But that effect can’t explain the fact that in the very same poll (Quinnipiac) a month ago, more people said they supported Trump than say so now. The effect wouldn’t have a differential effect between then and now.
By the way, as a separate topic, I think the Bradley effect is bogus. I actually think the vast majority of people tell the truth about their opinions in polls, if they bother to answer them at all. Extremist blog commenters excluded, naturally.
Well, as one especially extermist blog commenter I know said once more than once, “Isn’t it pretty to think so.”
IMO Carson’s appeal is based on a) he is not a politician; b) he is the polar opposite of the donald; c) he thinks before he speaks and projects an image that his positions and opinions come from his real world experiences; d) he is self assured, but also humble; e) many are tired – and frightened – of the racial divisions the left promotes which makes Carson an anodyne of the reckless race mongering of team obama; f) he comes across as sincere with no calculations normally associated with blowhards and politicians. and g) he does not cackle.
Carson is not in my top 3 at this time, but he is number 4.
According to Iowa’s Quad-City Times, it was a boost from women that gave Carson the advantage over Trump in that latest poll.
My black housekeeper is, as best I can tell, pretty representative of “decent” blacks. By decent, I mean reliable, trustworthy, sincere, hardworking; the same standard of decency in other demographics regardless of melanin.
She is pretty conservative by objective standards. There is a conservative black man running for lt. gov. here, a very worthy man. But he’s a Repub, and despite qualities and race she will not vote for him because she does straight Democratic. She is out there in the millions.
The prognosis for Carson with blacks is regrettably extremely poor, IMHO.
Well Margaret Thatcher had to put up with feminists deciding she wasn’t a “real woman”, so I guess Carson will expect to be called an Uncle Tom.
Carson’s supporters may be more focused on Hillary than Trump. Carson is the polar opposite of Hillary.
Iowa is a caucus state. You have to get people to Caucus for you. This report suggests Trump is recruiting through his rallies.
I’m warming up to Trump/Carson 2016 with Ann Coulter as Attorney General.
I agree with many of parker’s points except the one about thinking before he speaks. The opposite seems true: he appears to speak whatever comes to mind without any reflection or deliberation. Below is a recent example:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/ben-carson-calls-for-a-right-wing-fairness-doctrine-on-college-campuses/411865/
This is a terrible idea and fundamentally unconservative.
I understand the craving amongst many Republicans for someone sincere, forthright and not pre-packaged by the consultant class. But that does not necessarily require forgoing any policy advisors, any research and thoughtful consideration before offering policy proposals.
At present, he is at the bottom of my list, with Trump and Bush. Would I vote for him in the general election? Sure. As futile as such a vote would likely be…
Carson is totally unsuitable at the head of the ticket.
While he’d be more than acceptable as a V-P.
Yet, the fact remains. he will NOT draw cross over votes from Black voters.
Uncle Tom was modelled after Jesus Christ — and explicitly so.
Such is stigma.
Cruz is easily the strongest candidate at the head of a GOP ticket.
Carly WOULD draw cross over votes from White women.
I believe that makes her essential to a victorious GOP slate.
Cruz is so scary that the MSM — to include Fox — does not want to acknowledge that he’s alive.
It’s the “Cone of Silence” … to the max.
George Pal 4:21 – I really hate to agree with Pat Buchanan on anything but he is right about this. Iowa is a natural strong spot for Carson and not so strong for Trump. Whether that carries over to the other primaries is another question. Neither Huckabee nor Santorum ever came close to the nomination.
Scott Adams is of the opinion that Trump will sweep the field.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/129348531446/when-wives-attack-trump-persuasion-series#_=_
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/129713033741/the-reason-for-trumps-success#_=_
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/129995649271/violating-the-wizard-prime-directive#_=_
BTW, Adams sees what I see: Rubio is sure to be crucified for being too young — and even flip-flopping on immigration.
Only Trump gets to flip-flop… because he’s a Master Wizard.
The other famous flip-flopper that was never held to consistency: Master Wizard Bill Clinton.
He’s on record for flip-flopping on a single big issue before Congress four times in less than eight-hours !
Neither Trump, Clinton nor Obama have to be at all consistent. All are masters of ‘word-judo.’
They can flip words on a dime.
Well, after the Cubs were swept, I can only hope for Cruz/Carly ticket, or either one as POTUS and the other as a Cabinet member if, by a miracle, the American populace grows some brains and realize that voting in either Madam Clinton or Grandpa Sanders is a very bad idea. But given the apathy, if not naivety of the American populace, I’ll be betting on hibernation for conservative values. I wish I never became a conservative. Being a liberal/leftist/”progressive” is so much more easier.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/130557062016/robots-read-news-about-humans-in-metal-cages#_=_
I can’t tell if Scott Adams is predicting Trump or Cruz.
&&&
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/130269114086/one-on-one-match-ups-trump-persuasion-series#_=_
Dilbert thinks that Trump will sink his rivals — one by one.
Right now, he’s eliminated Walker.
And getting Carson and Fiorina to knock off Bush has to be his primary gambit at this time.
The Koch brothers need to fund Cruz… ASAP…
He’s the one that HRC must fear the most.
He may, however, be someone the “establishment” would be happy to see taking over from Trump, although he certainly doesn’t seem to be an establishment figure.
he is smuged and they will make a big issue of it the second he is in front enough. they are holding back because Trump is clean (but aggressive, and this metrosexual alan alda milquetoast gender bending society is afraid of maleness which has no good qualities any more), and they cant get to him for a single thing he has actually done.
so they make fun of trumps hair
they make fun of his aggressiveness
they try to say that he isnt a good business man cause if he was he would have done better by putting his money in an S&P index fund (except that he inherited in 1974, and the first index fund was vanguaard in 1995 21 years later. so this is akin to saying christopher columbus would have come to america faster if he took a plane), the even try to clip him for trump casino which when it went under was not owned by him, and he was suing them for using his name.
they tried to smear him that he said he would have prevented 9/11, which he actually didnt say, and what he did say was full of might and maybe, but the left doesnt notice might and maybe, just look at its certainty over the GW bs.
now with carson, they can rip him. rip his business dealings, and contacts, and they can rip him for the same kind of disconnect.
there is also the idea that for some odd reason, the republicans (actually democrats), dont want Trump, who will reval the reaching accross the aisle is not a compromise between two oppositions for the greater good, but that reaching across the aisle is the two wolves deciding on the fate of sheep. they are colluding to sell out the people which is why the republicans dont stop a thing.
meanwhile, cruz wants huge increases in h1b visas, and companies are firing americans because the feds are paying them bonuses to hire foreigners who are in school here… ie. they kick males out of school, they then pay for illegals and foreigners to attend, now they are paying to fire americans.
there is a congressional investigation going on now to the 35 plus years of h1b visa abuses. ie. since they cant ship the jobs out, they are paying to have americans repalced in the jobs they have.
i havent had a raise in 11 years, been on a fixed income since i was forty. was told no matter what i do, how hard i work, what i achieve, my raises and such are reserved for women and minorities. they even stuck me in a closet office(smaller than a bathroom stall) till i had a TIA stroke from sitting in cramped quarters, lost my eyesight from not being able to see a distance, and on and on.
but they ARE hiring h1b visas despite a job and raise freeze and for an average of 40-70k more than the salaries they are paying degreed professionals here.
so the ONLY two that may stop this kind of thing are carson and trump, and carson is favored by the dems as he has dirt on hm and if he had dirt on him, he fits the rules of the catechism of the revolutionary in controlling as many people as possible.
[edited for length by n-n]
Here Are Some Antidotes to Science’s Old White Guy Problem
http://www.wired.com/2015/07/antidotes-sciences-old-white-guy-problem/
TONS of stuff like this…
the population is collapsing…
like in other places…
the point is to exterminate the race that preserves freedom as most other places play pick the despot.
if i could get a raise i could get fertility treatments and my wife could have a family, though it would be hard starting a family in poverty at 51…
Given his personal story Dr. Carson is a more genuine black man than Obama. As far as Dr. Carson being “Cained” I am sure that Gloria Allred can find several “victims” to accuse him. Accusations and the associated MSM reporting of them ad nauseum will suck all the oxygen out of his messaging. Proof will not be required. Once Dr. Carson eliminates Trump he will in turn be eliminated to clear the way for Jeb!
Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) has been running the board with his insights into the Trump phenom:
“The latest poll out of Iowa shows Carson ahead of Trump. And you know what that means?
“It means Iowa is about to become irrelevant. Here I am assuming evangelicals will band together to give Carson the win in Iowa before Trump goes on to run the table everywhere else.
“Keep in mind that if Carson wins the Republican nomination, and Clinton picks a young and appealing VP running mate, Republicans who back Carson are potentially looking at 16 more years of Democratic presidents and full liberal control of the Supreme Court. Iowa might want to make a pro-life point by supporting Carson, but I doubt Republicans in general want to bet on the horse that is the “nicest” but runs the slowest in a race against Clinton.”
The Case for a Trump Landslide (Part 1) | Scott Adams Blog
Preface: OT, but tangentially relevant via Trump sharing the false/BDS narrative of the decision for Operation Iraqi Freedom.
blert,
I saw your comment at Naked Capitalism citing my explanation of the law and policy, fact basis of OIF. I’m glad you used it.
Quibble. You said, “It’s also now clear – way, way, way, too late, that Saddam was absolutely committed to revving up his WMD programs – all of them – the moment the coast was clear. This tale never made it into the Duelfer Report“.
The 1st part is correct – in fact, ISG found an active program in the Iraqi intelligence services that was hidden from the UN weapons inspectors in violation of UNSCR 687.
However, the bolded part is incorrect. Excerpt from the answer to “Did Iraq failing its compliance test justify the regime change?”:
Neo: In the preceding month, we’ve had Carson’s statements about the suitability of a Muslim for President. While the left went predictably bat guano over the statement, I think a lot of rational-thinking people see that as another brick in the impressive edifice of Carson demonstrating himself to be a smart and logical person, who eschews the kind of braggadocio and grenade-throwing that Trump revels (and excels) in. While the sycophantic press portrayed Obama as some kind of High-IQ Vulcan 3D-chess master, which seems ludicrous to me, Carson, on the other hand, fits that mold really well.
I like what Trump is doing for public discourse, and I respect his intelligence and ability to use his rhetorical judo against the Left, the RINOs and the Press in a way that is almost unique, but I don’t support him for President. My appreciation for Carson, however, continues to grow.
But then again, I also really like Bobby Jindal, so make of that what you will.
I think Carson has remained under the MSM’s radar for the most part because of his calm, quiet demeanor and his unfamiliarity to them.
Many of the other candidates are grabbing the spotlight (and there are so many!) because they are known entities. The media already has established relationships w/them and there is a template for covering them. There was no template for Carson, who must seem like a unicorn to them, similar to Clarence Thomas. But speaking of Thomas, and Condi Rice, I have no doubt they will find many ways to slander Carson based on his un-PC views on abortion, homosexuality, gun ownership, and religion. They still portray Thomas as a dummy, affirmative action appointment, despite years of excellent writings from his SCOTUS bench that prove otherwise.
Carson’s appeal will grow as his story becomes more widely known and as he becomes more visible. What a story this man has! He is the antithesis of a conniving and cynical politician, of your typical establishment Republican. He is wisely holding back now so as not to become a tired, over exposed figure – like Trump – before the primaries. Also, he has a very well established field campaign at work in the background.
Carson’s campaign will be a test for America, one that I believe Providence is giving us.
The Club for Growth spent a $1 million on ads knocking Trump in Iowa. They have a little feud going on. Will Trump respond> Does Iowa matter? The last two winners in Iowa were Santorum and Huckabee.
I’m having trouble understanding Carson’s appeal. He
… carrying right on … has the most compelling life story of any of the candidates, yet none of it relates to executive ability. Of course, the same can be said about about our current disaster-in-chief, and look how that’s turned out. Although, some might say, with good reason, that he is achieving his actual agenda.
Iowa didn’t matter the last two times. Despite the media attention, it won’t matter this time.
Old and Ridiculous Says:
October 23rd, 2015 at 9:42 am
Jeb’s campaign is imploding as we type.
He’s being cut off from further funding.
Consequently, he’s now forced to lay off lots of ‘talent’ at his Florida HQ.
Put a fork in him, he’s done.
The knives are out for Carson from the Neocon lobby. Carson’s right hand man, confidant, and blood-brother for the past 20 years has said nice things about Nation of Islam underlings in Chicago, and then went to the anniversary of the Million Man March. Even a hint of anti-Semitism sends these people over the edge. Here’s the smear article at American Thinker:
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/10/support_of_farrakhan_organization_may_force_ben_carson_to_separate_from_longtime_adviser.html
I guess that pretty much ends Carson’s chances, especially with Carl Icahn making Trump videos and putting up $150 million for his SuperPac. The article linked says it’s to buy congress, but note that it lines up exactly with Trump’s economic plans about bringing jobs home, etc.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2015/10/23/Carl-Icahn-Making-Brazen-150-Million-Bid-Buy-Congress
Trump, Icahn, American Thinker. Couldn’t be any clearer.