You want polls?
He’s pretty good at analyzing them, too. The news is better than you might think, if you believe what he says. Scroll down and do a bit of reading; he’s especially good at analyzing the difficulties with state polls.
Are the polls being gamed, with Democrats oversampled? Or is it just hard to predict who’s going to turn out to vote this time? What about that Bradley effect? And can anyone explain what happened in the New Hampshire primary?
Many people have pointed out how dramatically the pollsters seem to be weighting the sample in Democrats’ favor this year. The real question is why. Do they have valid information that this is actually the composition of the voting electorate? Or are they purposely trying to make Obama’s support seem larger than it is?
My guess (and it’s only a guess) is that it a little bit of both, operating together. There may indeed be more Democrats this year, especially among the young. But will they vote (the ones who aren’t named “Mickey Mouse,” that is)? And if so many older people are actually switching party affiliations for this election it’s a bit odd, because historically people simply cross party lines to vote for another candidate rather than change their party identification (that’s why the Reagan Democrats were—well, Democrats).
If not, and the polls are being intentionally skewed, then to what purpose? The first and obvious one would be to cause despair in the Republican camp and perhaps even depress turnout. The second and even more pernicious would be to cause another—and far angrier—groundswell of deep resentment in Democrats about a stolen election if McCain were to be elected against all the predictions. It would make 2000 look like a tea party.
Actually, 2000 already looks like a tea party.
[ADDENDUM: Dr. Sanity has some fighting words.]
The dirty little secret MSM knows is that voters on the left are most vulnerable to voter suppression due to dissapointing polls.
Deadbeats won’t show up if instant gratification is not in the cards.
“The second and even more pernicious would be to cause another–and far angrier–groundswell of deep resentment in Democrats about a stolen election if McCain were to be elected against all the predictions. It would make 2000 look like a tea party.”
I almost fear this more than four/eight years of Obama…in my midwestern college town, about 80+% of voters will be voting for Obama. When a certain basketball coach known for his violent temper was fired in 2000 the town erupted in street riots. I have a feeling an Obama loss would be a bit more catastrophic.
Riots in Bloomington, are you kidding me?
Honestly, I could care less if the Leftists riot and start mayhem if a miracle occurs and McCain wins. We are armed and if they attack us we can take care of business, thank you very much. If there ever was a civil war in this country, the Left would get its clock cleaned. Wouldn’t even be a contest. Of course, if the military obeyed the tyrant all bets are off. Ditto if Russia, China, or the E.U. intervened on behalf of the government. But I don’t think it will come to that. I hope it doesn’t come to that. It would only come to that if the coming administration or any future Leftist government were to seriously shred the Constitution. It would have to be something very grave for the center-Right to take up arms. We are NOT, contrary to the slanderous views on the Left over the years, snarling, bloodthirsty hayseeds. But, if you practically nullify the 1st and 2nd Amendments, we could indeed foment rebellion.
Someone on a prior thread the other day posted a link to a U.K. presentation about Individualism vs. Collectivism. I found that presentation done very well (and I did not, contrary to an opinion posted on the site, have a big problem with the Enya background music). We already are well along the road of Collectivism. Yes, right here in the United States of America. I has been going on by stealth for decades. Now, the Collectivists want to push it harder over the finish line.
One of the things that happened in the Sixties and Seventies was that there was very significant underinvestment and capital expenditure in the overall economy. Entrepreneurship was very low. Taxation at very high levels had a lot to do with it. We did not feel its effects too much in the Sixties, but it really bit us in the ass in the Seventies. The combined effects of the Vietnam War expenditures simultaneously with the Great Society Welfare State and the very loose monetary policy of the Fed, and the spiking oil prices of that time, very nearly ruined our economy. By the late Seventies is was all coming undone.
When you punish capital and entrepreneurship, you have a “capital strike.” This was something that flummoxed the New Left. President Carter and his advisers had not a clue as to what was happening. But Ronald Reagan did. And gradually more Americans from the WWII generation, the “Reagan Democrats” did. The rest is history.
It is this Reagan counterstrike against the punishment of capital that Obama and the self-described “Progressives” (code for “socialist”) have taken aim at. Their model is Western Europe and the E.U. If you want to see our future under this kind of regime, look at Western Europe:
– stagnant growth for decades
– structurally high unemployment
– high interest rates to counter the profligate spending of the Welfare State
– imploding birth rates (and having children is a sign that people have faith in the future)
– swelling ranks of Allah’s minions
– shrinking military budgets, making robust military action virtually impossible
– cultural degradation and descent in hedonistic nihilism
We are entering a trying period in our history. This moment has been in the works for some time. I have predicted that we have to have it out with the Left, probably over the course of several election cycles, given the Left’s inroads into the transmission belts of our society.
The virus is already in the system and breaking out. The only way the population is going to realize the danger is when the symptoms become obstreperous and interfere with the quality of our lives. Either the American people learn the necessary lesson – especially young people – or we keep on descending into the moral, economic, cultural, and political degradation that is the Collective. What I call The Borg.
Socialism, contrary to the claims of its leading theoreticians, does not create a new, moral human being. The evidence of history should provide the rude slap in the face on that one.
Neo asked, “Many people have pointed out how dramatically the pollsters seem to be weighting the sample in Democrats’ favor this year. The real question is why. Do they have valid information that this is actually the composition of the voting electorate?”
Answer – The reason stated is that the number of people registered Democrat surged over Republicans. If you see the trend/graph of that surge it happened during the Democrat primary mostly where people wanted to have a say of Obama versus Hillary.
There is no reason to suspect that ALL of those Democrat voters for those primaries will come to the general election or that there truly is more Democrats than Republicans because there is OVERLAP.
There are Republicans that are registered as Republicans but registered as Democrats temporarily during the Rush Limbaugh drive to throw the primary during the Democrat primary.
My questions are:
1) What percentage is this overlap?
2) What percentage of the people who registered for the Democrat primary in order to vote for Hillary but are now disgusted and not going to vote for Obama based on his stands?
3) Why weight AT ALL? I want a poll of ALL likely voters with no weighting. A big enough random sampling of voters in certain demographic areas of the country will probably be a better barometer for the country’s mood.
I look at a few indicators:
1) I do not see as many Obama stickers as I’ve seen Clinton/Gore/Kerry stickers here in Sacramento, CA
2) I see the rallies that Sarah/John are putting on where there is excitement and huge crowds. This is uncharacteristic of the Bush/Kemp/Bush Sr. rallies of the past.
“Riots in Bloomington, are you kidding me?”
I kid you not…and since Obama’s popularity among faculty and students in most assuredly higher than the Colonel’s was in 2000, I think car fires and vandalism would be the minimum should there be an October, or November, surprise.
Fred, switch to decaf. It’s not going to happen.
I pay attention to the Rasmussen, GWU Battleground, and Pew polls somewhat. They have the best historical record of accuracy. I disregard the others. I imagine some of the college ones in each state are fine, but I haven’t researched it, and think 3 polls are enough variety.
Dr. Johnson,
While there is not much we can do to dampen riots in university towns across America, if the thugs try this outside the confines of their boxes they will regret that mistake.
We should not comply with their demands and vote for Obama simply because we are afraid that the Collectivists will riot and try to intimidate us. We are not intimidated.
Statistics is very, very sensitive to even minor methodical errors, and avoiding such errors requires almost superhuman intellectual honesty and competence in arcane details of methodology. I do not expect such scrupulosity in present cultural milieu. To obtain a sufficiently large and representative (unskewed) sample in polls is a costly and formidable task.
Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.
Obama’s crew will riot if he wins or loses. If he wins, the riots will go on for many years. If he loses, the prolonged riots will be set back until the next election at least.
sergey,
You are absolutely correct in that assessment. The polling companies assume that a registered Democrat is not going to cross over and vote for a Republican, and the reverse. What they do try to do is to get actual samples of “independents” (they get these from the voter lists in towns and cities) and see which way that group breaks.
Another biasing factor is who answers phones when pollsters call. I don’t answer those calls. I use Caller ID for what it was made: screen calls. People like me (registered Republicans) tend to (and my friends who are like me all say the same thing) not answer the phones. We don’t want to be bothered. We are busy with other things. Some do answer the calls and lie about who they are going to vote for, just to mess ’em up.
Another biasing factor could be deliberate disinformation being done by some polling companies. There are reputable ones who do not do this. It’s called “push polling” and in my state (New Hampshire) it is illegal. Push polling is done to depress turnout for the other side.
There are cross over voters too. I don’t always vote a straight ticket. For example, I will be voting for the Democrat candidate for governor of my state (John Lynch). There may be a local politician from the Democrats I may vote for too.
Despite all of these controversies, my gut tells me, based on anecdotal evidence, that Obama is going to win. Outside of the urban and dense suburban areas, he is not popular. But where the population is concentrated he is very popular.
Urban people tend (I know exceptions exist, as neo could attest over there across the Connecticut River) to favor Obama. Urban people tend to love big government, high taxes and redistribution, programs to get the goodies from, are anti-gun, are anti-Christian, etc.
The real divide in the country is closer to this:
urban vs. rural
young vs. older
single vs. married
atheist vs. theist
female vs. male
minority vs. Caucasian
Not “Red State” vs. “Blue State”
Every now and then I venture into this site and read the comments. Then I get back in my rocket and zoom back to earth, and get on with life.
Funny thing is, three years ago when I first found this blog, so much of what neo and many of her commenters said made some sense. But now you’ve all gone nuts.
sarahlouiseheath, if you don’t see the encroaching loss of freedoms, the very real loss of wealth, the very real near term concern for the economy, the very real near term concern for an election free of fraud, the very real concern of being branded a racist for daring to question a candidate’s political, social, and economic positions (and his past affiliations and associations) then you spend too much time zooming about in your rocket. Which, by the way, leaves you no room for calling everyone here nuts.
Sorry DrJohnson:
There is absolutely no way I will vote for that dip merely to keep someone from getting mad us.
If there are riots, that’s just too d*mn*d bad; we’ll deal with them.
I wish they WOULD threaten it; that would give McCain a landslide. If they really think we will cave in to appease them, they have a LOTto learn about us.
I always thought the reason for skewing the polls was to convince undecideds that more people are voting for democrats so they should too — go along with the crowd. After all, anyone who is decided at this point is quite confused and probably easily swayed to just do what the majority are doing.
I’ve been discussing this very issue with a close friend who was somewhat demoralized at the polls being published.
All it took to boost her spirits was to point out how the Survey USA poll had North Carolina represented at 42% Democrat / 37% Republican / 18% Independent – even though in BOTH 2004 AND 2006 voter turnout was actually exactly the same at 39% Democrat / 40% Republican / 21% Independent.
There is no real reason for such a drastic change in the way voter representation was apportioned in that survey. Pennsylvania was even more lopsided in how it was weighted in favor of democrats.
When one looks across all of the polls at this single consistent factor it becomes obvious that something fishy is going on.
If (or hopefully WHEN) Palin/McCain win the election, it’s not out of the question that there could be riots in certain parts of the nation, along with cries of “stealing another election” when poll projections don’t match actual voting results.
What has been referred to by others as the “Cold Civil War” could actually turn quite toasty- at least if those on the political left are stupid enough to push things that far.
Sometimes I ask myself to imagine what the world would be like if Al Gore (disclaimer: I voted for him) had been elected in 2000. The terror attacks of 9/11 would have been met by a few cruise missiles and a diplomatic hot air storm at the UN. The Taliban would still rule Afghanistan and Saddam would be baiting our forces and by now would be further on the road to re-armament and nuclear development. Iran and North Korea would be even bolder than they are. Can you see a mushroom cloud over Israel? The past eight years have had a lot of disappointments, but it could have been worse. And in about 3 months we are all going to have a taste of how much worse.
Here’s a question which is maybe embarrassingly dumb. It’s also slightly off topic, and I apologize for that.
I should add that I ask it as a McCain supporter and an Obama-dreader.
I’ve followed the Acorn scandal, but I can’t quite understand what happens to the fraudulent registrations. How will they add to the Democratic vote tally? Is it assumed that they’ll be used later to make fraudulent voting possible? Will people identifying themselves as Mickey Mouse, etc., actually show up at the polls?
Or is it possible that the goal of creating all these phony registrations is to throw off the composition of the polls, as in the above discussion? I’d be grateful for any answers.
mizpants,
I suspect it’s not a single reason that explains what’s going on.
You have paid organizers working on a quota system. As such, there is a built-in incentive to register as many “voters” as possible – even if it is fraudulant. As it turns out, most of these fraudulant voter registrations are democrat.
All of these new “voters” benefit organizations like ACORN as the organization is seen as being effective and thereby is more successful at fundraising on it’s own behalf (as well as acquiring public funding).
The democrats benefit because in our society perception is reality. Therefore it follows that if the perception is that democrats are building up a tidal wave that will crush the opposition, then potential sources of donations and organizations will tend to line up with the perceived “winning” side and thereby increase democrat success in the election itself while possibly depressing the turnout of the opposition.
Sort of reality following perception.
The media is overwhelmingly in the tank for Obama. Any information that supports the idea that Obama is winning therefore is considered a positive by most of the media and is not really questioned.
Whether deliberately or simply because they are blind to their own biases, this information is repeated because it reinforces their view of the world and what they want to happen and to believe.
The pollsters benefit because people keep going back to them for more of the same. The more volatile the polls, the more people will tend to pay attention to them and the more money they will make as a result.
So basically, you have a lot of self-interests at work that all benefit from creating this image that Obama is winning in the polls before the election is even held.
mizpants,
Good question:
1) Depends on the state and how their process works.
2) If you have same day voter registration and voting as in Ohio – it becomes nearly impossible to know anything other than – you have a vote you need to count.
3) If you have a state like Oregon who only does absentee ballots – it becomes a system in which voting can be done by proxy and multiple times.
4) If it works like it has in many states – a) you register b) you get voting guides and your POLLING place that you are supposed to visit IN THE MAIL c) you go to that polling place and present your “ID”. Then ACORN is out of business.
Notice that Acorn doesn’t exist in every state.
BTW,
If people of every race, ethnicity, religion simply registered as part of their duty – there wouldn’t need to be such a PUSH come election time. We don’t need to tax “secretary of states” everywhere with a burden of verifying thousands of people quicker than they can physically do so if we all took it upon ourselves to be responsible, register, and register more than a month or so before the election just like we’ve done for decades.
And what is wrong with having people present an ID at the time of voting??
mizpants,
more answers
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/10/the_acorn_connection.asp
mizpants, re baklava mentioning Ohio, see:
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/more-obama-voter-fraud-in-ohio-caught/
If not, and the polls are being intentionally skewed, then to what purpose?
the winner effect… i remember it most with nixon… people wanted to brag that they backed who won, not backed a loser.. so polls are known to skew the results as the ‘herd’ skews to be ‘right’.
this is VERY prominent in the left, since the lefts logic basically boils down to… i know i am smart, cause look what i do for a living, but in truth i dont know crap of whats going on in politics… but i dont want to admit that i am ignorant, so i will side with the masses… because how can the majority be wrong?
they are sure they are right because they are sure the masses could never be wrong.
so skewing a poll establishes early on who has a lead, and so skews the results to that side.
nothing like success or the perception of such to give you more success…
GeoPal and all my pals here,
Stay classy.
s, Talk issues please ?
“The second and even more pernicious would be to cause another–and far angrier–groundswell of deep resentment in Democrats about a stolen election if McCain were to be elected against all the predictions. It would make 2000 look like a tea party.”
you didnt go far enough…
it will be even WORSE than that.
ok… least rioting thing would be obama wins, mccain loses, nothing happens.
the next would be mccain wins, obama loses, agitprop and illegals foment and commit acts (they have already started. those poor chinese students at columbia).
but everyone cant see whats developing in front of them because they are looking for signs to indicate wahts expected, not looking for signs to tell them whats coming.
the worst, and i think its already being set up, is obama wins, votor fraud, improprieties call the election, and the presidency is handed to mccain.
that would possibly lead to civil war of sorts.
[it will definitely lead to people being found dead in the morning when some random passing in the night happens and no one is around]
guys… what that would do is make for military control, suspension of the constitution, the statement laws now come into effect since the constitution cant stop that if its not in effect, and the “civilian labor camps” (gulags, reducation, etc) that are armed and manned already, will then be used.
(www.army.mil/usapa/epubs/pdf/r210_35.pdf)
you will basically see each minority attacking the presumptive opressors, and each other.
like the man in california, you will have people pulled out of cars, cars set on fire, mayhem in the streets… and a large part of it will be contrived as people in the crowds are there to make it worse. you can be sure that each front group segment already has plans to foment the idiots to do their work. (this is pretty standard for a coupe)
the point here is that when obama comes forward and calms the seas, and the rioting stops when he asks it to, he will be the coupes winner.
while that is a vast oversimplefication… everything is actually in place and converging on that. talk of rioting, setting it up that its race, that the white american state would never let a black man take office, so much blatant votor fraud to make voting meaningless in a tight race (which it is), intimidation, paying for votes, misuse of power, etc.
and one of the largest abstract reasons, russia will not last to have another try at it.
Russia’s population peaked in the early 1990s (at the time of the end of the Soviet Union) with about 148 million people in the country. Today, Russia’s population is approximately 143 million. The United States Census Bureau estimates that Russia’s population will decline from the current 143 million to a mere 111 million by 2050, a loss of more than 30 million people and a decrease of more than 20%.
The primary causes of Russia’s population decrease and loss of about 700,000 to 800,000 citizens each year are a high death rate, low birth rate, high rate of abortions, and a low level of immigration.
geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/russiapop.htm
so those who have been working there for their dreams, know this is the last chance. so they have fired up everthing, and put it all into one child raised, bred, and trained to be something he doesnt even know he is.
(anyone care to point out the literature that has thought of that kind of thing already? how about historical reference? japan, siciliy, and a few others..)
with control of the house, senate, and whitehouse with the most left president, they would make changes so fast, the people wont know what they are doing even worse than now… (and this is endgame, its more worked out than anything else in case opportunity came in the past 50 years).
when they start to realize, they will hit the streets like they are doing now… except that their new leaders are going to do something about it, that was consumption for the prior regime, not the new one. the clashing to blackmail to get what you want should never have been permitted as a valid and favored means of argument. in other words we were too nice, and they wont be.
what these protesters will find out is that changing back is not allowed.
in case you didnt realize it, you cant change a pickle to a cucumber, the process is one way
our population is in decline and the barbarians have already moved in for those of you that know roman history.
by doing this they have let people think that the population is being maintained.. but thats just a number.
when feminists said have less kids, they didnt tell the ladies that for each woman that doesnt have kids and works, another has to have FIVE kids so the population remains stable.
there is just sooooo much in sooooo many areas that one cant believe it.
but you know what? what they did was use the engine of capitalism, the million termites, to invent and work out ways everwhere they were, to aid the cause.
we have forgotten that the left are REVOLUTIONARIES, and that leftist revolutions are always bloody on some levels
there are other things pointing to this too (like testing military cadets and only promoting those willing to fire against their own people in psych profiles. psych categorizing and records will be very important to process everyone fast – the battle of hue in vietnam saw that they captured all the people working against them before they were pushed out. the point of the battle was not to capture hue, it was to get to those people. so it didnt matter if they were pushed out)
look to russia to see what kind of place this will be like eventually. for the freinds of obama are mostly of that cloth, not other cloths. though mao was very brutal too. hope you dont have prescription glasses.
The online news source mosnews.com reported that in 2004 1.6 million women had abortions in Russia while 1.5 million gave birth. In 2003, the BBC reported that Russia had, “13 terminations for every 10 live births.”
=========
Russia has a very high death rate of 15 deaths per 1000 people per year. This is far higher than the world’s average death rate of just under 9. The death rate in the U.S. is 8 per 1000 and for the United Kingdom it’s 10 per 1000. Alcohol-related deaths in Russia are very high and alcohol-related emergencies represent the bulk of emergency room visits in the country.
With this high death rate, Russian life expectancy is low – the World Health Organization estimates the life expectancy of Russian men at 59 years while women’s life expectancy is considerably better at 72 years. This difference is primarily a result of high rates of alcoholism among males.
we copied their polices in the 60s… they started in 1917… we are right on the verge of rounding the same corner… (their dream is a new world war, or desease or the continued application of this, and what will be left is a world left for those rulers to repopulate, and goodbye the truly despised lumpen proletariat). no fault divorce, free love, abortion on demand through full term, euthanasia of the old, rationed medical, progressive taxes, and a whole bunch of other things. which is why they never taught you about that place, you might have notice the copies. (even the art, i can show you a scultpure that was in rockerfeller center, of people walking up a rod to the sky, and i can show you the original in russia which was hailed as a great piece of socialist realism).
in three years, obama can turn a recession into a depression the same way we now know that the democrats caused it then (this is recently out in the past few months, they figured out which few laws were the turning points, and like the CRA, they did that one too).
ah… i go on to long, but there i so much…
the discussion the other day i was going to pipe up on teh complexity thing. and the only reason i am bringing it up is because it shows where their failure would be.
at each level of complexity, the system moves peacibly, then it reaches a point where a state change happens. ice turns to water, water to steam, steam to plasma, etc… this is why and what has been happening in america and why we are so productive. i will use news as the example and hopefully this isnt too long that i get banned.
in the tribe, everyone knew everyone. as that group expands, gossip fills in first hand knowlege. and rumor mills and whatever you want to call them. in cohesive groups this may not be nice, but it was often true. however in this low level it was easier to inject a false thign once in a while and work the system. but then the system fractures. too big, people dont trust the rumor mill any more, and now local papers come up… then large papers… at each level its fracturing and reforming to fill in the gap made by our expansion. and at each level, powerful people have a harder time controlling the system.
so it was easy to control the local daily, but lost control when the large papers came in and one could cross check. they got control of the papers.. but then radio filled in a gap… they get control of radio… and tv shows up… they then try to control the whole media… and the internet is the next fractured level.
same with companies. ford used to make everything, but then they bought stuff, now they are just coordinating purchases and assembly of hundreds of makers. the system fractures to get new efficiency out as it gets bigger.
this is structural to reality. drop grains and a hill will form, over time, it will reach a growth point and it will fracture, and collapse a bit, and then it can take more grains.
what use is globalism when the system will fracture and we will have other planets as different groups then…
this is why the socialists and power people regress the state, or try to halt progress… they want a dark age or else dynasty isnt possible… if it werent for the US, russia and china could have gone on like that for 1000 years with the rulers not having to care about the population who never threatens them and serves their purposes.
if they stopped all medical progress… we stagnate, and the population is dropped to 10 million for the US… what kind of place would it be? they think utopia… but not so…
they are the ones who are ruining the obtaining of utopia. (like life in a small town in more moral times). that is their desire to own more than anyone else, control everything else woudl mean that they would do nothing but war agasint each other (As they do now, but bigger with no moral limits, worse than wwii… for that was a no moral limits war fought by people with moral limits, this next one will be no moral limits with people with no moral limits)
this may be why there is no other intelligent life out there… the power people who can bring darwinian advantage when its subsistene and tribe against tribe for survival… but they become a liability in the more modern state where their form of blackmale and sociopathic piss cake can cause annihilation. they are not the new man that would take over, they are the throbacks that new man is too nice to get rid of.
i will say that they also may do what they have in the past… thats over play their hand… when the kgb ordered czeck stb to do indonesia, it went so great they were amazed. made sokarno paranoid, and out went america… but they forgot about the chinese, who then decided it was so good, lets have a coupe.. they killed 7 generals, tried to take power, and miscalculated. the army then went and cleaned house and murdered the largest communist party outside of russia the time.
indonesia became a democratic republic and the people are free… its the most capitalistic place i have ever gone to. the people are incredibly freindly, and so much like the people where in the US when i was young, its incredible.. (islamic actions are now how they are seeking to try and take it again).
a coupe type action, with riots and potential civil war, the breaking out of the military, could make this VERY messy..
and which ever side inches ahead… they get to clean house..
4) If it works like it has in many states – a) you register b) you get voting guides and your POLLING place that you are supposed to visit IN THE MAIL c) you go to that polling place and present your “ID”. Then ACORN is out of business.
unless you do what they did in ohio.. covered by malkin today…
and sorry on the long one.. i type fast and didnt realise it was that long.. darn…
Zombie has posted a trenchant analysis of the polling situation: The Left’s Big Blunder
It’ll be interesting to assess how close Zombie’s take is on reality. I suspect that the race is much closer than polls currently indicate, for the reasons discussed in that analysis. Whether they’re close enough to pull this one out of the fire is another question.
The worst will be if McCain wins by a slim margin.
We are telling our kids to be prepared to get out of the city. Keep you gas tanks full, keep food and some cash on hand. If things get bad, banks will not be open, and it only takes two days to empty the shelves at the grocery store. Don’t travel through Oakland/SF or Sacramento. I’d tell ’em to get a gun, but I don’t think there’s time for that.
Remember Reginald Denny?
If McCain wins by a large margin, we may be ok.
Good point, Rose. The problem is that leftist agitators have over the course of years now convinced the cognitively challenged that their candidates should win (either through the Pauline Kael effect, or through various polls showing a hefty majority). Then when their candidate loses, they howl about stolen elections.
Come to think of it, in addition to the points that Zombie makes, that may be a reason why hard core lefties want to skew polls leftward: to delegitimize the election, stir disaffection, and increase their opportunities for agitation.
I’m not partial to conspiracy theories by any stretch of imagination, but this does seem to be a logical application of the Cloward-Piven strategy to electoral politics.
Baklava,
What would be the point in talking issues? All y’all seem to have invented your own reality.
I just drop in here for anthropological purposes.
At this point, McCain could only win if there were some serious cheating going on. And I think it would need to be serious. And judging from the behavior at campaign rallies, why are you so worried about Obama supporters rioting? And, news flash, the “angry left” is still gonna be angry as long as we have a constitutional democracy. they are not part of the Obama coalition. They don’t like Obama. He hasn’t yet threatened to kill whitey.
Dan,
Since you’re interested in counterfactuals, try this one:
If Gore had assumed the presidency n 2001, then 9/11 would have been a sunny Tuesday in New York, like so many September days of years gone by, and the GOP would STILL be trying to block any tightening of airport security because it would be unnecessary and would harm profits.
Baklava
As to your astute observations about Obama stickers:
data is not the plural of anecdote.
Sheesh, and they say the Republican war on science is all in our heads.
Would dogs and cats get along too?
Just checking.
Seriously, do you think that, had Gore been elected, bin Laden would have said, as in the song, “Let’s call the whole thing off,” and gone out for pastrami?
-Seriously, do you think that, had Gore been elected, bin Laden would have said, as in the song, “Let’s call the whole thing off,” and gone out for pastrami?-
Nope. But Gore had his number. Gore would not have been asleep at the wheel.
sarahlouiseheath, you call everyone here nuts and then ask me to stay classy? Rocket boosters not working? Too much “warp” speed?
Nothing ruins a discussion more than when one of the participants postures in an insolent manner. Entering into our thread as an exercise in anthropological observation…
This is the kind of hauteur we have come to be exposed to by the elites, who never miss an opportunity to remind us of who our betters are.
Just an observation but it seems that the left is freaking out tonight. LOL Serves them right.
sara, Gore didn’t have shit. Including his sanity, as subsequent events have amply demonstrated that he’s unhinged.
And, to my discomfiture, I voted for him, before I realized that.
Gore lost his home state. Too busy tracking terrorist threats?
Realistically, probably no one could have stopped bin Laden, whose conspiracy was years in the making, but Gore cut the chances of our doing so by protracting the electoral process, and delaying the governmental transition. Even Nixon had more statesmanship than that, and that election really was stolen. When Gore demanded a recount, I swore then and there that I would never vote for him again, and would oppose his subsequent candidacy for anything above ratcatcher.
“Had his number”? Incredibly stupid comment, frankly. What is it supposed to mean, exactly? Gore would’ve asked him out?
Al Gore is so intelligent that he cannot understand the difference between correlation and causality when it comes to science. He barely graduated from Harvard University, a school long renowned for grade inflation. And he flunked out of both Harvard Divinity School and a law school. To barely graduate from Harvard and then to flunk out of its graduate school of theology takes an effort.
That said, I did vote for Gore in 2000. I changed parties in 2002 and do not regret my decision, despite present circumstances. I think we are very fortunate that George Bush barely squeaked by in 2000. And the esteemed intellectual on this thread who attempts to explain to us hayseeds that we were wrong and that Gore would have been much better at national security has to shoulder the burden of proof for that assertion.
Fred, in Gore’s defense, I don’t think he’s stupid enough to actually believe in the global warming nonsense, but rather saw it as vehicle to keep his career alive while he spent time in the political wilderness after losing his home state and then coming publicly unglued. I’m afraid we haven’t heard the last of him, but I earnestly hope I’m wrong.
sarahlouiseheath-
With all due respect, you’ve definitely spent too much time up in “space.” Or maybe you’re just “spacey” to begin with?
Guess what? There IS cheating going on! And it ain’t on McCain’s side, as disappointing as this might be to you.
Federal investigators have been rather busy looking into cheaters — those who have ALREADY BEEN CAUGHT and have even ADMITTED to the cheating. In fact, in Ohio, they’ve admitted that it’s so systemic in their operations that they have no way of assessing how many phony registrations have been submitted. Ever heard of a group called ACORN? Obama’s pals. Many leaders of which he personally trained. Oh, and he even was so generous with his campaign money so as to give them $833,000 — ostensibly to get out the vote, but in reality, it was to get out the vote for HIM. They are also funded by the federal govt. thanks to Democratic members of Congress and now have a rather symbiotic relationship: we’ll give you money and you make sure we get elected anyway you have to…….
And they’ve been working hard at just that! There are currently 9 investigations — possibly more — and they’re all in battleground states. Surprise, surprise!
(NOT!!!!!!!)
Please — find a reputable news source & get some facts. Lucky for you, even the MSM (the networks et al.) are covering this story because it is SO SERIOUS, and so BLATANT that it’s hard to avoid.
I think it thoroughly dishonest to try to make people think Al Gore would have some how have handled the job Clinton refused to do when presented with the opportunity.
It is as ignorant as pretending that 911 wouldn’t have happened if Bush were some-how more on top of things.
But now that I think of it, Bush could have tried earlier to rescind the Gorelic wall of silence imposed by the same administration Gore was a part of.
“…but Gore cut the chances of our doing so by protracting the electoral process, and delaying the governmental transition.”
Occam’s Beard is right! And the following is a bit off this thread’s topic, but with regard to Occam’s Beard’s comment:
Just last Thurs. Bush signed orders for an early transition to be executed. Aware of the problems in his own transition resulting from an intransigent group of Democrats who stalled voting approval many of his appts. for months, even years…. Bush realizes the necessity, in the current atmosphere to make sure this does not repeat.
“”This is especially important as our nation is fighting a war, dealing with a financial crisis and working to protect ourselves from future terrorist attacks,” Perino said.
Bush’s order established a presidential transitional coordinating council whose members include top officials from the intelligence and national security community, as well as the White House budget office, the Justice Department, Homeland Security and other agencies. Even before the election, they will work with the Obama and McCain campaigns “on an equal basis and without regard for party affiliation,” the order directs.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/09/politics/main4511618.shtml
Despite the delight much of the Left takes in Bush-bashing, this is but one example of his determination to make sure we are safe, and that the transition process does not leave us vulnerable — whether it be to further economic threats, terrorist attacks, or our ability to best fight enemies those who would harm us and threaten our way of life.
Besides Gore not “getting it,” Gore would be much too busy flying around in his private jet on his way to excoriate the world for polluting our environment, while earning tens of millions allowing him to enrich himself while buying all the “carbon credits” that he claims redeem the pollution his jet generates and the enormous amount of power that his mansion requires.
To rescind the wall of separation between the FBI, CIA, and NSA before the 9/11 plot was carried out would have required a revised FISA. What are the probabilities that this would have happened in time to materially affect the outcome? Eight months between inauguration and the act of war of 9/11 is not an adequate amount of time to fix it and then have the resources to follow up the leads. I do not think it could have been done.
At root, it is the 1978 FISA that is the problem. We now know why this act was codified into law: certain members of Congress and the Senate were trying to grandstand for their constituencies and for certain individuals. John Kerry was a major beneficiary of the FISA, since his less than honorable discharge rested on evidence of his violations of the UCMJ while in uniform and while in Paris on an unauthorized negotiation with Madame Binh of North Vietnam. As well as his activities with Tom Hayden and Jane Fonda. Others who were involved in Communist organizations had dossiers with the FBI thick with surveillance information of their activities.
It was all political vendetta. The Church Hearings were among the most dramatized and posturing of Senate farces that happened during the Seventies.
Oh, and lest I forget…
That Bill Ayers was not convicted of terrorism and murder owes in no small measure to the 1978 FISA.
blablablabla-elite-blablablabla-MSM-blablablabla-Ayres-blablabla-Gore lost his home state-blablablabla-left wing-blablablabla-elite-blablablabla-abortion-blablabla-private jet-blablablabla-million dollar house-blablablabla-socalized medicine.
Y’all caricature yourselves far better than I could do.
sarahlouisheath,
How old are you? You are behaving like a spoiled little junior high girl.
Gore was PART of an administration that WAS asleep at the wheel, sarah’. Objective reality has made this clear to rational Americans for over 7 years now. Gore couldn’t even get his own home state to help make him President. The left has worked tirelessly to ignore that fact in favor of righting the “wrong” imposed by the SCOTUS when they refused to let Gore change voting rules in Florida. Since that day, Gore and his ilk have worked to destroy the current administration at all costs – though the heavens, or the Republic, fall. Stop kidding yourself. And consider getting some advice on that projection thing you keep doing.
– The second and even more pernicious would be to cause another–and far angrier–groundswell of deep resentment in Democrats about a stolen election if McCain were to be elected against all the predictions.
This threat has in fact already been clearly proclaimed by James Carville, indicating the most transparent of leftist tactics: the MSM “predicts” an Obama win loudly and often – ostensibly the most unlikely outcome given his anti-American, marxist ideology, far-far-left Senate voting record and complete lack of fitness for the position – and subsequently foments insurrection with the same sort of propaganda they spewed in the aftermath of Katrina.
Anyone remember communist Raila Odinga, for whom Obama campaigned in Kenya at U.S. taxpayers’ expense in 2006? That was precisely the tactic used there late last year. Odinga lost and called for “protests”. The result was virtual genocide directed against his opposition.
One may chuckle at the notion of Moonie-like, machete-wielding college students facing a nation of NRA riflemen. But remember that Gore has already publicly declared “civil disobedience” an acceptable response to the left not getting what it wants, once it stamps its feet, tears its hair and gets no satisfaction. And Ayers has provided the example: Feeling disaffected? Bomb the Pentagon. No machete required. He has never paid any debt to society for his transgressions. Neither has his wife. They’re both considered upstanding, mainstream “citizens” by the Chicago political machine – despite their open and considerable support for marxist thugs like Hugo Chavez.
Also note that the British courts have affirmed this view: violence is now acceptable public “discourse” when the left is feeling disaffected.
To those of you who think the Constitution will stand in the way of an Obama administration transforming this country into 10 regional gulags if he so chooses, you’re forgetting that the marxist political ideology he’s supported all his life has no reverence for constitutions. Every revolution promising “Change” for the little guy has demonstrated this.
sarahlouiseheath, “y’all”
U souwn lok one ob us hayseed, redneck, hicks. Is u?
If “Gore had bin Laden’s number,” I guess bin Laden’s number was busy for eight years.
sarah, in consideration of your perspicacity, we’ve set aside Wednesday, Nov. 5 for you to vote, so you don’t have to mix with the hoi polloi.
goy: I’ve written about the constitutional issue before, here, in reference to Venezuela. Fortunately, our Constitution is less easily amended than theirs.
That isn’t to say, however, that it can’t be perverted through interpretation via the judicial route.
neo, my statement was based on a concern that’s more immediate – like selective suspension of Constitutional protections following the next 9/11, in the interest of National Security. And on that note I’ll just offer the observation that if you fear the government along these lines during a Republican administration, you’re justifiably concerned and “speaking truth to power” against a fascist dictatorship. During a Democrat administration, that same mentality makes you a survivalist militia member clinging to guns and religion… at least according to past characterization by media propaganda.
Legislatively, a far-left Democrat lock on two branches of the federal government will effectively render the Constitution potentially moot, at least for short periods. I don’t believe the SCOTUS can initiate Constitutional challenges on their own, and such challenges, once proposed, take time. Without public support – because you know the media will remain in the tank and continue spewing the same propaganda they’ve been spewing for the last 8 years – such challenges could take much longer.
It took almost a decade to undo the really dangerous stuff passed by FDR during the New Deal. Slightly less bad stuff lasted until the 70s, and the less dangerous but still decidedly socialist stuff (e.g., SSI) was never corrected. And FDR’s gang hadn’t been methodically and relentlessly conditioning the populace to accept their policies for decades.
Let’s just say that I don’t find the differences between our Constitution and Venezuela’s all that comforting in the face of an individual who sees nothing wrong with turning the DOJ loose on those who try to shed light on the truth about his past. This was done as a simple junior Senator. With the media behind following his lead (witness the media pogrom against Joe Wurzelbacher), do you think he’ll be less inclined to ignore the First Amendment in order to push his marxist agenda? I don’t.