A thought on timing in elections
An election is a snapshot, a single poll taken on a particular day. Opinions, on the other hand, are in flux.
Part of Obama’s good luck so far has been his timing. He was the fresh face, the exciting young guy with the energy, the style, and the gift of scripted gab. It took a while for some of his weaknesses to emerge in a way that started to hurt him with Democrats. He peaked early in the primary season and started sinking in the second half. But he’d built up enough of a lead by that time that it didn’t matter.
Perhaps if the rules dictated that a party’s Presidential candidate be selected by a nationwide vote of party members on a single day—say, in August—Hillary would have secured the Democratic nomination instead of Obama. But that’s not the way it works, either for Democrats or for Republicans.
And suddenly it’s Sarah Palin who’s the newest, youngest, prettiest face in this election, able to give Obama a run for his money in the speechmaking arena. More of her weaknesses and flaws—probably even some that the MSM hasn’t managed to excavate and/or fabricate yet—are likely to emerge in the next few weeks. But will it happen slowly or quickly, and will they be large enough or important enough to change the opinion of an electorate that has fallen for her hard and fast?
I don’t know. But it occurs to me that the timing of her introduction to the American public seems far better than Obama’s. Suddenly he’s Yesterday’s Paper. And I’m not meaning to suggest that’s because Americans are just fickle novelty chasers. There’s a bit of that, I suppose. But more importantly, we’ve had time to get to know Obama, and an increasing number of people don’t like what they see.
Here’s another musical reference. The months aren’t quite right (“you’re ridin’ high in April, shot down in May”). But much of the sentiment seems appropriate nonetheless:
As we move closer to the election, people spend less time wishing and more trying to make up their minds seriously. Also, the long campaign benefits the person of substance. We may or may not have made up our minds as to whether Sarah Palin really has substance by Election day, but we will have done so with the other three candidates.
I have remarked, many a time and oft’, over at my place that whilst a US presidential campaign seems unbelievably long to us Brits who only waste 3 weeks on ours, it is in fact a very shrewd arrangement given the immense size of your continental country and the requirement for the candidates ‘to see and be seen’ in every part of it. And, of course, as you intimate above, in that drawn-out time-span the public gets a good, long, hard look at the candidates. At least no-one can complain that they didn’t know what and who they were voting for!
If I might be permitted…
I feel hopelessly vindicated in predicting some time ago that Obama had peaked too soon (because of the bitter primaries), and that Obama fatigue would set in before the election.
McCain so far has played this perfectly. Some criticized him for not getting out there during the Dem primaries, but I thought he was wise to keep a low profile and let the fatigue set in. This rope-a-dope strategy worked to perfection when he announced his VP selection at the end of the Dem convention, neatly pushing Obama off the front page.
McCain’s a sly one…
Good point, David. What role is played by the difference between a parliamentary and a presidential democracy? Voters can come to know the candidates for their parliamentary seat pretty quickly. To what extent are voters influenced in their choice of MP by the partys’ choices of leader?
In other news:
Amid swirling rumors that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il suffered a recent stroke, sources close to the diminutive madman revealed that his collapse occurred shortly after he learned of GOP presidential nominee John McCain’s selection of a running mate.
“McCain chose WHO?” Kim reportedly said just before the onset of the stroke, sources confirmed.
According to one member of Kim’s inner circle, “He was totally blindsided by the choice – he really thought McCain was going to go with Pawlenty.”
The North Korean dictator, known for his secretiveness and insanity, was staggered by the selection of Alaska governor Sarah Palin, the source said: “This was more secretive and insane than anything he’s ever done.”
While the source did not indicate the prognosis for Kim’s recovery, he said that if the mercurial dictator does regain consciousness his aides would be careful not to say anything that could cause a relapse.
“We’re definitely not telling him about Levi,” he said.
from the Borowitz Report
The one score and ten lawyers John Fund says are in Alaska don’t actually have to find dirt. They are merely researching truth which can most effectively be spun/lied into pretend dirt. Which, likely anyone reading this already knows – yet I can’t help pointing it out, as I do get angry about it. I’m not enlightened enough to transcend it in a tranquil fashion.
At least no-one can complain that they didn’t know what and who they were voting for!
Except those complaining they didn’t know how to vote a “butterfly” ballot, of course.
Thanks for the youtube link….I have some things going on within my family and I needed that “peptalk” from old blue eyes.
Dear Neo, For those of us ancient enough to see Frank at the time, God Bless You for the reminiscence.
Thank you, Neo for that refreshing musical and video interlude. I needed that. That and some Martinis.
I just got a mass e-mail from a liberal friend (I have very few of any other variety) passing on a number of the current lies about Palin, including that list of books she supposedly banned that includes several that weren’t even published yet at the time she supposedly did it. I wrote back with a couple of links to non-partisan debunking sites. I put it as gently as I could, but I’ll bet it will be some time before I ever hear from her again. I’m a little worried that the timing of Palin’s emergence allows just enough time for all those myths to spread and gather traction, and not enough time for clear and absolute debunking. (Witness this morning’s Washington Post headlines. How many are going to read far enough into the article and its responses to realize that everything she did was apparently legal and above-board, and how many will just crow “See! She cheated on her expense accounts!!!” based on the headline alone?) When you are the new kid on the block, it doesn’t take a lot of mud-throwing to mess up the first impression.
Neo, what are your thoughts on chivalry and how America’s faith and loyalty in the Lady, such as the Lady of Liberty as well as certain ships of war, are related to America’s love of Sarah Palin?
Palin is a phenom.
Like a stopped clock, McCain’s judgment was for once absolutely right. This from the co-author of McCain-Feingold! That hubris is the major drawback for conservatives. From now on McCain may believe (even more) in his own infallibility.
But somehow I bet that Sarah will not suck up to him!
Palin’s views on abortion are so radical that the majority of women would reject them if they thought through the consequences:
Should a woman be forced to bear a rapist’s child or a child of incest, even though she may become suicidal? According to Palin, “yes.”
Would a woman want one of the violent rapists who inhabit our prisons to be in her family’s genetic future? According to Palin, “yes.”
Palin as President is a real, and scary, possibility.
Hey the more we see of Obama he’s not only “Yesterdays papers,” he’s “yesterday’s girl.”
Oddly, even tho on a number of issues I’m closer to Obama than Palin, the more I learned about him the less I liked/trusted, whereas the opposite occurred with Palin – my initial reaction was a mix of concern and interest at the unusual choice, and then as I learned more about her I found myself growing more comfortable. Obama made a horrible choice in Biden – where is he by the way, anyone been seeing him? My respect for McCain is growing fast. He has a real knack for making the right strategic moves at every turn. Obama has been giving off the impression of a deer in headlights – an image of him I can’t shake.
This election could well end up being similar to one notoriously previous (remember?), except in this case the popular vote may end up being conclusively in favor of McCain, but B.O. wins in the Electoral College, and it will count, no whining allowed…
We need to hear from no less than the Judicial Department whether the issue of B.O.’s birth certificate has been credibly and legally settled.
The timing I am worried about is how long she can keep using the same phrases/schtick. She has to be a moving target, move on from the Bridge to Nowhere and press hard on earmarks, and vetoes, including line item vetoes. When they try to hit her, don’t respond but come back with something out of another field entirely, keep them off balance, and keep making points. I think she can do it, but it is going to be an exhausting couple of weeks.
“We need to hear from no less than the Judicial Department whether the issue of B.O.’s birth certificate has been credibly and legally settled.”
Why? He is clearly old enough and you only have to be the child of a citizen to have US citizenship. It doesn’t matter if she had him in North Korea and the father was a communist hardliner in the USSR he would *still* be a US citizen. Not only that but as of 2000 any foreign national under the age of 18 that is adopted by a US citizen automatically becomes one too.
The relevant law – US code Title 8, Section 1401 (defines natural born citizens): “Any one born outside the United States, if one parent is an alien and as long as the other parent is a citizen of the U.S. who lived in the U.S. for at least five years (with military and diplomatic service included in this time)”
The left is also making the same case for McCain as he was born overseas while his parents were serving in the military. From the same US code above:”Any one born outside the United States, both of whose parents are citizens of the U.S., as long as one parent has lived in the U.S.”
So, no reason for the justice department to get involved for any reason – it would be a waste of money. Even if his birth certificate is fake it doesn’t impact him in any way (unless he is the one who falsified it). People *really* wishing this to work (on both sides) have all sorts of reasons why they are not natural born, however the law is absolutely 100% clear and it has also historically been that way since the time of the founding fathers. The only way you can work it otherwise is by ignoring simple and clear writing in our basic laws.
However, for many this will be settled about the same time it is proven that Bush didn’t use demolitions to bring the World Trade Centers down or prove that the Pentagon was actually hit by a plane instead of a missile faked to look like one.
…Palin has made the biggest step forward in feminism since Madonna channeled the dominatrix persona of high-glam Marlene Dietrich and rammed pro-sex, pro-beauty feminism down the throats of the prissy, victim-mongering, philistine feminist establishment.
More>> http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/09/10/palin/index.html
Liberals tried so hard to prevent a conservative resurgence, they practically guaranteed it. They work on the notion that the media tail can wag the dog called the folk.
That only works until the dog gets tired of being slung around by a tail they can live without.
Oh, people; get a load of this:
We are being thrown the race card from overseas! From a white European no less!
Imagine the nerve!!
The world’s verdict will be harsh if the US rejects the man it yearns for
(UK Guardian article found on Real Clear Politics.com)
Oooh, ooh…get this: “An America that disdains Obama for his global support risks turning current anti-Bush feeling into something far worse
I wrote an e-mail to this smuck reminding him we had already had that parting long distance-dictating revolution and as far as European threats are concerned, he’s better off crawling back under the desk he’d been cowering under and working on new ways to appease his growing foreign born invasion.
Man, and I thought adding Palin to the ticket made voting McCain a better option. I must confess, nothing tops this.
The arrogance is astounding. Where to start? The “world’s verdict?” Who the hell are they to be judging anyone? And what would they do about it, if they were to judge?
But never mind that. When any country in Europe elects a black man as its leader pigs will be flying with or without lipstick on them.
Occam’s Beard Says:
The world’s verdict will be harsh if the US rejects the man it yearns for
The arrogance is astounding. Where to start? The “world’s verdict?” Who the hell are they to be judging anyone? And what would they do about it, if they were to judge?
************
They might refuse to extradite criminals to the US for trial if their crimes deserved death. Oh, wait, they already do that.
They might refuse us overflight rights to attack threats to world peace. Oh, wait, they already to that too.
They might demand many years to try and fail to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons through diplomatic means. Oh.
They might harbor terrorist cells for years that end up attacking and destroying major US buildings. Hmmm…
They might try to force the US to agree to anti-global warming measures that they themselves sign and flagrantly flout. Well…
They might persecute those attempting to speak openly about the threats to European civilization emanating from the uncontrolled mass migration of Muslims into Europe.
Well, come to think of it, not much more they could do.
(O)CT(O)PUS Says:
“Palin’s views on abortion are so radical that the majority of women would reject them if they thought through the consequences:”
Got a link? So far this seems to be from the dem mythmaking handbook. Someone against abortion is always accused of being against it ‘for rape and incest’ even though they’ve never actually said that.
As to real abortion extremists, well, look no further than Obama who voted against the born alive act before becoming a senator.
Either way, executives don’t create this type of law. I think the republican position is the courts shouldn’t either, the legislature should… and she is not running for congress.
Perfected democrat Says:
“We need to hear from no less than the Judicial Department whether the issue of B.O.’s birth certificate has been credibly and legally settled.”
He let the factcheck.org people look at it (the origional). They think its real. This one is not panning out.