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That NH primary poll — 5 Comments

  1. I live in NH when we had a landline we got calls ad nauseaum, I did *toy* with them giving results, I believe Dems with their agenda were frequent callers trying to gauge where the *wind was blowing*.
    Once I responded to the question “Who will you be supporting in the upcoming NH primary?”
    I said Obama (LOL) the polltakers response always stuck with me he responded “Good”. It surprised me that a poll taker would editorialize that way, so I guess that made me think it was an *inside poll* & not one of the legitimate polls.
    Yes & you are right about NH voters they throughly enjoy thumbing their noses at experts, for how long that will be the case ??? I don t know as now thousands of out of state college students are voting in NH, & unfairly stealing the residents vote since they cast ballots on state offices & referendum issues where they have no actual interest in the issues. Very disheartening for us residents.

  2. About Polls:

    1. The “margin of error” announced with polls is not a red herring. It is a flaming crimson sperm whale. It is a formulaic mathematical calculation that works just great if you want to approximate the average weight of apples in an orchard, assuming your scale is not a truck scale that is accurate to the nearest hundred pounds. It is totally erroneous if you are measuring opinions – the data are fuzzy.

    2. The sample is not representative:

    “At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today.”

    http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

    There are obviously a number of factors influencing the response rate. They’re just not sure what they are.

    Henry Ford once said, “I know only half of my advertising works. The problem is, I don’t know which half.”

    The non-representative problem caused the first great polling goof – “Dewey Wins”. It was a telephone survey at a time when telephones were not in every household.

    3. Polling firms are businesses whose income comes primarily from marketing research. They compete with each other based on accuracy. Public opinion surveys, where it is impossible to measure accuracy, are publicity. They are often used as training vehicles for junior employees.

    4,5,6,7 …

    You’re bored with this. So am I.

  3. @ Roy “It is a flaming crimson sperm whale.” Great line.

    I am a NH voter and we just don’t answer our landline much now thatWe used to go through with it at least occasionally. The theory behind having NH as first-in-the-nation (nod to Iowa and SC) doesn’t apply so well anymore. It used to be an opportunity for a candidate with less money and name recognition to get his foot in the door. That’s no longer the case. By the time we vote in Feb 2016, anyone who wants to stay in the race has to have lots in the account by then. And then will need even more. The national coverage overwhelms what happens here now.

    And I’m sick of it. When my children were young it was fun to take them to events and meet candidates and having something real and concrete to discuss with them. Those days are gone.

    My take from the folks I work with is that Trump is attracting people who don’t usually vote, who are mostly concerned that illegal immigrants “get stuff” while hardworking citizens are struggling, who believe “neither party has been doing anything about it,” and who follow the strong horse. He owns that group. People who have better-informed versions of those complaints aren’t quite as sold, but they far prefer him over the other SOB’s.

    So even if they aren’t really conservatives, they have some elements – and they just might show up to vote.

  4. Hi AVI,

    I check in with your blog every day. I don’t comment much because I find very little with which to disagree.

    My suspicion is that many Trump supporters, particularly the vocal ones, are the Ron Paul army of yesteryear. Why not Rand? Not loopy enough.

    The primary/convention system is revival theater, the 32nd quadrennial community players performance of A Glass Menagerie. I’ve been watching the show since 1952. The most interesting parts are the flubbed lines, missed marks and a vast audience of clueless critics. Comforting in a way.

    Regards,
    Roy

    p.s., when is that promotion coming through?

  5. “The poll is somewhat odd, however. For example, the number of Republican voters in it is 472, not a very big number. I know New Hampshire’s a small state–but still, that’s pretty tiny, as polls go.”

    Whistling through the graveyard.

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