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Crowd size: does it matter? — 32 Comments

  1. May I suggest an alternative? Powerline says that the final volume of The Last Lion comes out tomorrow. Have a whiskey with Winston.

  2. Remember that liberals (true blue liberals) are a small part of the electorate. They got used to getting their way in swinging the independent (centrist) vote. That ain’t happening.

    You’re right they will vote to defend Obama but he won in 2008 by others votes.

  3. expat: Thanks for letting me know. Unfortunately, author William Manchester died years ago. He left his notes, but they’ve been cobbled together by Paul Reid. I read that Manchester himself asked Reid to do it, so maybe it’s even good, and I’ll give it a chance. But I can’t imagine it could approach Manchester’s work.

    Interesting date for its release.

  4. DirtyJobsGuy: good point.

    I find it hard to believe anyone but a die-hard liberal would have voted for Obama in 2008. But clearly they did.

  5. neo, I understand your liberal friends buy arguments against Romney but what do they think of Obama’s job performance? Is the power of the liberal groupthink so strong that they can explain away his incompetence? One approach to confronting liberals might be to say ‘if I want to know what the NYT or dem talking points are, I only have to talk with you.’ I am sure they would like to think of themselves as independent thinkers. They might be shocked to realize they are anything but original in a political sense.

  6. It’s true. Every single Democrat I’ve listened to among friends and colleagues demonizes Romney and blames Bush. No mention of a single positive accomplishment by Obama — it’s all hate, all the time. Very, very defensive.

  7. Steve: it’s on a very different level for them. There is literally no way most of them could ever vote for a Republican. They think Republicans are evil, bigoted, cruel, heartless, etc. (how they factor me in I don’t know; they think I’m just weird). My guess is that they would explain Obama’s “incompetence” (and I don’t think they’d agree that he has been incompetent) by saying it is because of the Republicans, who’ve cruelly and selfishly blocked his efforts at bringing us all together, etc.

    They know very little about conservatism. I focus on telling them what conservatives (or, many conservatives) really believe, and what Romney really says. I don’t think insulting them by saying they’re parroting talking points is going to reach them at all; it would just start a fight. I always try to be very polite and respectful to people.

  8. Thanks for the heads up expat. The first two volumes were terrific, I’ll have to head out and get it tomorrow.

  9. Neo,
    Yes, good post. Here in Austin people are tearing the doors off the early voting places. I have never seen it like this. Everywhere in this liberal bastion you see Romney signs ( exept hipster areas, but they’re hopeless with irony) and no O signs. Tommorrow I do not believe the American voters will have spoken they will thunder. Landslide.

  10. Neo, your comment about the crowds is interesting and well taken. I think though, that the tell in this case is that Obama is having a hard time getting his partisans to show up in large numbers. His crowds are much smaller than Romney’s where ever he goes, by definition friendly territory. Remember that his speech at the DNC had to be moved to a much smaller venue at the last minute since the huge crowd of 2008 that they were expecting just wasn’t materializing. Even that great showman, Bill Clinton, is speaking to half full high school auditoriums.

  11. neo, I would say liberal groupthink is the problem and challenging it is not insulting, it is the solution.

  12. It is their religion. They vote for liberals because they feel they are more intelligent and discriminating that everyone else. And they demonize Republicans for being “evil”. They are as closed minded as any Fundamentalist.

    Don’t listen to them because they will lose this year. Maybe, over the next four years, some of them will become less close minded. I doubt it. They do not venture too far out of their comfort zone.

  13. Steve Says:
    November 5th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
    neo, I would say liberal groupthink is the problem and challenging it is not insulting, it is the solution.

    neo-neocon Says:
    November 5th, 2012 at 2:26 pm
    Steve: it’s the way you challenge it that matters.

    Obamacare lobotomies would be a start.

  14. A woman called into Rush Limbaugh today and expressed great anxiety, not only about the election but about the horrid fact that even if Romney wins 56-44, that means there are at least 44% of the populace that approve of Obama. And she couldn’t accept or understand that fact.

    I though Rush did a great job by telling her that now was the time to defeat them. Work on changing them later.

    On the other hand, Obama is starting to sound deranged. I heard an excerpt of one his last speeches and it reminded me of a crazy neighbor we had. Obama’s pronunciations were almost breathless and strongly suggested a disorder of some kind: high anxiety, paranoia, something, but it was noticeable.

  15. The three indicators that matter: The economy, the debates, and the polls. The latter, being that they all represent 2008 turn out despite there being no chance of that being the case, are perhaps the strongest indicator of the three.

  16. Romney by 53 to 46. Wave or undertow, it didn’t matter. Barack Obama won only 11 states and DC.

    They were the few lone blue islandsawash in a red sea. The effect downticket was just as bad for Democrats. They returned to the Senate holding only 43 seats (including 2 Independents). Bob Menendez, weighed down by a prostitution scandal, was further hamstrung by a Democratic electorate that, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, had things to do other than vote while, fooled by the pollsters, they complacently expected a Democratic win. In the House, the GOP returned to Washington with gains and a total of 250 seats. — Bob Krumm. The scenarios: 5-Gallup electorate poll is right

  17. I was also wondering how much momentum Kerry had against Bush in ’04 at this point. I live in California, so it seemed like GW was doomed, and people were actually shocked that he won. Does anyone have any stats or anecdotes to provide context? I’m too lazy to look for them myself. Haha.

    But I guess one indicator that there isn’t as much excitement for The One this time around is that my liberal friends refuse to talk about politics. At this time in ’08, you couldn’t get them to shut up about Obama. They were constantly taking jabs at McCain, Palin (especially) and Bush (even though he wasn’t running). Now they are conspicuously silent on the whole subject, with their only comments being along the lines of “I can’t wait for all of this to be over” and “BOTH parties suck.” But just like Neo’s friends, they WILL vote for Obama, more out of spite, or perhaps “revenge,” than anything else.

  18. I run a program in the human services in eastern Pennsylvania, and over the past few weeks, I’ve had the chance to talk about the election in a casual way with some new employees. Several of these have only recently graduated from college, and all of them were ecstatic to have a job. I was astonished to hear that none of them planned to vote.

    That’s the clearest sign I’ve had that this election isn’t even close to resembling the one held in 2008.

  19. Curtis –

    I heard the same speech today. Obama did sound “off” as if he is getting a cold, or has asthma or something. It wasn’t his normal speech.

  20. Neo,

    You have described to a tee the behaviors and thinking of my many liberal friends towards this election. They will vote for O tenaciously and in droves but, I believe, merely to prop up their own self-image. Signs that the black vote will be somewhat depressed seem credible. But nothing yet gives me solid confidence in a Romney win. And the many pundits tempting the gods by calling a Romney victory are giving me the heebie jeebies.

  21. Thanks Neo. Looks like Bush had a small but significant lead going into election day. The crowds Romney and Ryan have been drawing HAVE been encouraging to me. They remind me of the crowds Obama was drawing in 2008. Like you said, this can’t be a BAD sign. I’m still getting more nervous by the hour though.

  22. I still believe that Obama is going to win this because Romney will not carry Ohio. Please do not underestimate the power of the Democratic voting machine, especially in the Midwest. Democrats control entire cities and know that in those precincts any voter they get to the polls is an Obama voter. Republicans have no comparable zones of such overwhelming dominance. The big cities are Democratic vote factories.

    In Detroit, there was a three to five hour wait in the early voting lines this past weekend.

    What Democrats might lack in outright enthusiasm (and it’s definitely not at the level it was four years ago), they make up for by organization.

  23. I don’t think so much of those big city slicker machines. Remember Wisconsin. The whole might of the national city slicker machinery operated against Walker for a year to no avail.

  24. “The whole might of the national city slicker machinery operated against Walker for a year to no avail.”

    Yep, I think that by this time tomorrow we will see the real ‘silent majority’ reject the messiah.

  25. .

    =============================

    … but if memory serves me I recall that he also won New York City)

    BWAAAAhahahhahaa….

    Dave Leip **rules**:

    NEW YORK county by county data for 1972

    Not quite:

    McGovern carried The Bronx, Kings, and “New York” (Manhattan?), but lost out on Queens and (AFAICS) all the rest of NY State.

    ===========================

    .

  26. Smock Puppet: total up all the votes from the 5 boroughs for McGovern and then for Nixon, and you’ll find that McGovern carried New York City.

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