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Open thread 3/1/22 — 58 Comments

  1. I know Ukraine is the topic most on everyone’s mind, so forgive me for the usual Tuesday covid update.

    I think it’s over (minus some new “variant”) except for the self-congratulations I’m sure we’ll hear from the SOTU tonight. Certainly by the end of March, if trends continue, it should be in the rear view mirror. Nationally, cases declining at -145k/day. Serious cases in absolute numbers are just 7000, declining at about 600/day, which gives a 0.02% rate. This rate is the lowest since the beginning with the previous low of 0.028% just prior to the omicron wave.

    State level (6 states monitored): Average cases now at 10 +- 3% of peak; with GA lowest at 3%, NH highest at 17%. Deaths still a lagging statistic: state average now at 48+- 25% of peak; with low at 10% for Florida. CT again showing problems in that it is now stuck at 39% of peak for 12 days. Colorado continues to confound; still at 100% of peak (34/day) and has been at that level for over 90 days, yet it’s cases now at 10% of peak. No clue why that is.

    Personal note: my daughter called yesterday to report our SiL has “covid”. I don’t think I believe it. Last week two of his co-workers had a “cold” with post-nasal drip and a resulting bad sore throat that cleared up in about 2.5 days. They tested negative for covid. My SiL felt bad Sunday and went to the CVS nurse with same symptoms and tested “positive” and is now starting to feel better. I think a 48 hours common virus with conflicting fast covid tests….sigh…

  2. physicsguy,

    I just got over a typical cold. Tested negative, as I knew I would. Probably had a similar illness just about every year of my life around this time of year, but, of course, now there are so many more questions and concerns from others. Somehow, no matter the mildness of the symptoms, the dreaded “COVID” must be avoided at all costs.

  3. Colorado continues to confound; still at 100% of peak (34/day) and has been at that level for over 90 days, yet it’s cases now at 10% of peak. No clue why that is.

    You have odd anomalies in the Virginia statistics as well. Presume the source of it is a poorly supervised data entry clerk employed by the state health department.

  4. The poem is so much different being read than just reading it. He brings a real feeling to what Coleridge was communicating.

  5. As we’re closing in on the biennial anniversary of “2 weeks to flatten the curve”, mask mandates are being lifted in the blue states ahead of Biden’s speech. Ace of Spades notes that technically we still have more daily cases than this time last year, so by their own internal logic we should all still be performing mask theater. But obviously our beneficent technocrat overlords base their public health decisions on polling rather than anything like science or whatever.

  6. I stayed out of the Switzerland banking thread. If I were Jewish I’d be offended, but I’m neither Jewish nor Swiss so I’ll stay out of it. However, regarding the nation I am a citizen of:

    Banks that withhold or confiscate account holders’ assets are committing theft. Governments directing banks to do such acts are encouraging theft. Governments that seize citizens’ assets without trial are committing theft.
    Any taxes other than consumption taxes are theft and the citizens of a government taxing income, capital gains, profits… are not freemen and women.
    The sixteenth amendment should be repealed.
    The IRS should be disbanded.
    The Federal Reserve should be audited. Then eliminated.

  7. Our mask mandates have been cancelled here in central NC, except for medical facilities. But I still see some in grocery stores and drug stores. It’s not a problem, since it’s individual choice, but it’s sad to see how many young and healthy people are still terrified.

  8. Re: Putin

    Several reports out there stating Putin is “not all there.”

    Is it possible he is faking it / acting to cause the EU/USA/NATO to become more cautious in their aid to Ukraine?
    To make it appear that he is loony enough to use nukes?

    The Russians are the world’s best when it comes to deceit / trickery / propaganda / misinformation, etc.

  9. Interesting that Hungary won’t allow aid to Ukraine via their country unless that is just more agitprop.

  10. However, regarding the nation I am a citizen of:

    Your first two points are reasonable. The rest are crank nonsense.

  11. I mean the only reason Red Ruthenia is part of Ukraine was to give Stalin access to the Hungarian Plain.

  12. Kate, even here in Florida I still see about 20% of the people in stores with masks on. Just on a whim, I checked my county’s voter registration roll, and sure enough about 20% of the voters here are Democrat, the rest independent or GOP. Make of it what you will 🙂

  13. “The rest are crank nonsense.”

    Looking at the state of the global economy and its long-term prospects, I’m not so sure deriding the “cranks” in favor of the status quo makes you look quite as smart as you wish.

    Mike

  14. Some here will predictably dismiss this as irrelevant but some may find it of enough interest to give it fair consideration.

    “Biden’s CIA Director Doesn’t Believe Biden’s Story about Ukraine”

    “Two years ago, Burns wrote a memoir entitled, The Back Channel. It directly contradicts the argument being proffered by the administration he now serves.

    In his book, Burns says over and over that Russians of all ideological stripes—not just Putin—loathed and feared NATO expansion. He quotes a memo he wrote while serving as counselor for political affairs at the US embassy in Moscow in 1995. ‘Hostility to early NATO expansion,” it declares, “is almost universally felt across the domestic political spectrum here.”

    On the question of extending NATO membership to Ukraine, Burns’ warnings about the breadth of Russian opposition are even more emphatic. “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin),” he wrote in a 2008 memo to then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. “In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”

    https://peterbeinart.substack.com/p/bidens-cia-director-doesnt-believe?utm_source=url

  15. “Maine schools will have to wait for updated mask guidance from the Mills administration”

    Not sure what Gov Mills (D) and her administration are waiting for. Seems to me the ‘all clear’ signal has sounded.

  16. physics guy: “Kate, even here in Florida I still see about 20% of the people in stores with masks on. Just on a whim, I checked my county’s voter registration roll, and sure enough about 20% of the voters here are Democrat,”

    I’m becoming more open to the idea of
    a) MAGA hats are for conservatives
    They don’t require others to wear them. And sometimes get physically attacked when wearing them
    b) Masks are the equivalent identifier for Dems
    They mandate that others MUST also wear them.

    re: Kate and PGuy’s comments, based on the teens around me (we have a HS junior) I’d say they’re not terrified of Covid. It truly is a marker that they are part of the “cool guys” and is enforced by peer pressure.
    It’s rumored that here in CA school kids will be allowed to unmask in a couple of weeks. However, I wonder if many will continue to wear them. And unionized public school teachers are pretty violently opposed. One district near Sacramento dropped the mask mandate and today the teachers refused to show up. Kids are hanging out in the school gym with admin staff watching over them.

  17. Looking at the state of the global economy and its long-term prospects, I’m not so sure deriding the “cranks” in favor of the status quo makes you look quite as smart as you wish.

    If you’d like to repair the domestic economy, you can start by controlling the growth of monetary aggregates and developing a plan to balance the federal budget with a mix of spending cuts and tax hikes. In the course of that, you can remove all the tax preferences for various economic sectors incorporated into the code.

    Nothing he recommended was tonic. Three of the six items are frankly silly. (Though very familiar).

  18. “Election Inspector Sues Delaware Over Early Voting, Permanent Absentee Voter Status”—

    No clue what Delaware’s regulations are. IMO, postal ballots should be provided only to people who have an abiding problem inhibiting them from voting in person. These people could place a standing order for a postal ballot renewable quadrennially. No one else gets one. An abiding problem would be:

    1. He is a U.S. government employee posted abroad; or spouse of same in country with said employee.

    2. He is U.S. serviceman or spouse resident with same.

    3. He is a person under the age of 25 enrolled at a residential campus.

    4. He is a miscellaneous person who is resident in institutional group quarters.

    5. He is a person attested to be homebound on a standard form filled out by his doctor.

    6. He is a person who works in transportation, materials moving, sales, or maintenance whose work supervisor attests in a standard form is out of his county of work and county of residence > 1 day a week on average.

  19. Geoffrey Britain,

    The video I link in my 10:00am comment explains your point quite well, and depicts it graphically. It doesn’t give credence to Putin’s actions, at all, but it explains the perspective well.

    I heard from a Ukrainian/Russian friend whose father was in the KGB and she stated she does not understand why so many Russian rulers and military people obsess about an attacker coming from the West, but it is a very real aspect of Russian culture. And they do obsess about it.

    We can say it’s ridiculous that our Federal government would obsess about an insurrection coming from a mass of protestors at the capital on January 6th, but it doesn’t matter if it’s absurd, if that is the narrative our politicians (even Ted Cruz) are working with.

    We can say it’s absurd that Justin Trudeau would think some truck drivers holding a street fair with bouncy castles are the KKK.

    And we can say it’s absurd Vladimir Putin fears an attack from the West.

    The absurdity or relevance of a narrative makes little difference if an individual or organization has enough power.

    A key factor, perhaps THE key factor in foreign, political relations is understanding the opposition’s perspective.

  20. We interrupt this unceasing war blather with a libretto in case any body needs one.

    Kubla Khan
    BY SAMUEL TAYLOR COLERIDGE
    Or, a vision in a dream. A Fragment.

    In Xanadu did Kubla Khan
    A stately pleasure-dome decree:
    Where Alph, the sacred river, ran
    Through caverns measureless to man
    Down to a sunless sea.
    So twice five miles of fertile ground
    With walls and towers were girdled round;
    And there were gardens bright with sinuous rills,
    Where blossomed many an incense-bearing tree;
    And here were forests ancient as the hills,
    Enfolding sunny spots of greenery.

    But oh! that deep romantic chasm which slanted
    Down the green hill athwart a cedarn cover!
    A savage place! as holy and enchanted
    As e’er beneath a waning moon was haunted
    By woman wailing for her demon-lover!
    And from this chasm, with ceaseless turmoil seething,
    As if this earth in fast thick pants were breathing,
    A mighty fountain momently was forced:
    Amid whose swift half-intermitted burst
    Huge fragments vaulted like rebounding hail,
    Or chaffy grain beneath the thresher’s flail:
    And mid these dancing rocks at once and ever
    It flung up momently the sacred river.
    Five miles meandering with a mazy motion
    Through wood and dale the sacred river ran,
    Then reached the caverns measureless to man,
    And sank in tumult to a lifeless ocean;
    And ’mid this tumult Kubla heard from far
    Ancestral voices prophesying war!
    The shadow of the dome of pleasure
    Floated midway on the waves;
    Where was heard the mingled measure
    From the fountain and the caves.
    It was a miracle of rare device,
    A sunny pleasure-dome with caves of ice!

    A damsel with a dulcimer
    In a vision once I saw:
    It was an Abyssinian maid
    And on her dulcimer she played,
    Singing of Mount Abora.
    Could I revive within me
    Her symphony and song,
    To such a deep delight ’twould win me,
    That with music loud and long,
    I would build that dome in air,
    That sunny dome! those caves of ice!
    And all who heard should see them there,
    And all should cry, Beware! Beware!
    His flashing eyes, his floating hair!
    Weave a circle round him thrice,
    And close your eyes with holy dread
    For he on honey-dew hath fed,
    And drunk the milk of Paradise.

  21. Pingback:Something Wonderful: Your STOU Alternative Universe

  22. Don’t know much about the milk of paradise but my grandfather firmly believed that buckwheat groats AKA “kasha” AKA “gretchka” was the food of the gods…

  23. Gerard,

    The way I heard it is the poem came to Coleridge in a complete vision while in an opium induced stupor that was interrupted and lost when an insurance agent knocked on Coleridge’s door.

    I don’t know if it’s true but it’s such a comment on the human condition that I never wanted to research the truth, in case it is false.

  24. JimNorCal, I have a relative near LA who is a member of the teachers’ union and who will no doubt oppose removing the mask mandates.

  25. On Russian paranoia about NATO: It is true that Russia was invaded by a megalomaniac would-be conqueror from France in the nineteenth century, and one from Germany in the twentieth. What is irrational is the idea that a weak and unfocused NATO was a threat like those. Let us even suppose that Ukraine, despite its heroics, is conquered by Russia. Will NATO want to conquer Russia? What Russia has done with this ill-advised assault on all of Ukraine, instead of on its pro-Russian eastern fringes, is to pull NATO Europe together in a way it hasn’t been in decades, but I still don’t see that NATO Europe would wish to conquer Russia, merely to defend against it. I also don’t see that Russia would have refrained from the effort to re-take former territory if only NATO had not expanded.

  26. Barry M. and physicsguy might be interested in the Pfizer document drop: A Texas judge (Mark Pittman) issued an order on January 6 requiring the FDA to release 12,000 pages of documents related to the Pfizer vaccine by January 31 and an additional 55,000 pages per month thereafter, until the release of the nearly 400,000 pages of documents is complete. These are documents that the FDA wanted sealed until 2097.

    Two posts over at Small Dead Animals about the document release: “Nothing Says Safe and Effective Like 9 Pages of Side Effects”:

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2022/03/01/nothing-says-safe-and-effective-like-9-pages-of-side-effects/

    and “The Pfizer Document Drop”: “Big day, lots of reading ahead for some folks. 10,000 pages released thanks to a court order. This is the second round of documents that the FDA wanted sealed until 2097. Newest ones are at the bottom of the page. I’m sure we’ll be hearing lots more about this in the coming days.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2022/03/01/pfizer-document-drop/

    Links to other COVID and spike protein-related articles at the second link.

  27. On February 25, 2022 at 10:56 pm I accused Art Deco of lying about NATO’s eastward expansion. I was mistaken in making that accusation, as in fact upon much later reexamination I realized he was correct and I hereby render Art my apology. It was an honest mistake upon my part, in that I sincerely believed he was lying but that doesn’t change that I wronged him in doing so. I shall in the future do my best not to make such a mistake again.

  28. Indeed. Happy Mardi Gras! The international mess, and our domestic policy mess, may make Lent the appropriate season. Lord, have mercy.

  29. “A key factor, perhaps THE key factor in foreign, political relations is understanding the opposition’s perspective.” Rufus T. Firefly

    That is part of what I’ve been saying for some time. However, since the Russian’s have made known their perspective repeatedly and forcefully since the breakup of the Soviet Union, I’m certain that the CIA, Pentagon and State Dept. are well aware of Russia’s perspective.

  30. Side note.

    neo,

    I missed your response with links demonstrating Prof. Mearsheimer’s clear anti-Semitic attitude. I find that distressing and profoundly mistaken. As I’m sure you’re well aware, an individual can be profoundly in error in one area and basically correct in another. IMO, that is the case with Mearsheimer and Israel VS the conflict between Putin, Russia and the West.

  31. I am not up to date on all comments from the past, several days, but I saw some discussion about difficulties in Hong Kong and Zaphod being absent from these pages.

    Does anyone know if he has checked in recently, or if he is safe?

  32. Laissez les bon temps rouler!

    Rufus T. Firefly:

    Today I saw a couple of gay guys at the Frontier, a classic old-school Mexican restaurant made great across from UNM. They were both wearing Mardi Gras beads.

    I was thinking it’s too early for Mardi Gras. You know how one can forget that time is passing. It was still early February for me. Then I realized, hey! it’s March already.

    Mardi Gras is a scene, but I tell people who want to see New Orleans to avoid Mardi Gras unless that’s what they really want to do.

  33. Rufus T. Firefly:

    Zaphod has been banned.

    I tried for many months to deal with his repeated anti-Semitism (some of the posts I removed and I would periodically put him in moderation). Another thing that was a problem was the often-stated condescending snarkiness towards Americans and anyone who had ideals. But it was the racism/anti-Semitism too. He actually curbed some of the racism over time, but the rest remained, and it was an effort to keep on top of it on my part.

    After I put him in moderation this last time, he began to post really really nasty comments (they were in moderation, so only I could see them) and so I banned him. I have been planning to write a short post explaining, because I realize that people would miss him and I know that he had some good traits and wrote some interesting and entertaining stuff as well. That’s why I tried for a long time to get him to stop doing the other stuff, but it didn’t work.

    Here are a few excerpts from the moderated comments that stayed in moderation:

    Just remember folks… If you *do* get nuked (unlikely it seems despite all the hyperventilating) it’ll be because you Just. Couldn’t. Leave. Shit. Be. You had to butt your noses into other people’s business. Just can’t help yourselves. Never learn.

    Jesus @#$%ing Christ, you people are willfully ignorant and obtuse!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis

    ”…was a 1-month, 4 day (16 October – 20 November 1962) confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union which escalated into an international crisis *******when American deployments of missiles in Italy and Turkey******* were **************matched************* by Soviet deployments of similar ballistic missiles in Cuba….”

    You can’t think straight… Your ‘history’ is half truth and half lies and you hardly know which is which… and anyone comes along to dispute anything you just shut down and start name calling or banning.

    Worse than the Bourbons.

    Etcetera.

  34. Too bad. He sometimes had really interesting perspectives, but fairly often I would simply scroll past his posts, and the arguments he started.

    One of the nice things about this blog, besides Neo’s insightful posts, is the usually intelligent and non-confrontational group of commenters, who have lots of interesting information and links to add. Emphasis on “usually.”

  35. Thanks for the information, Neo. My opinion is also that he is anti-Semitic. No need to apologize. It’s your blog and you gave him, and give everyone, a long leash. It is good to hear his absence isn’t due to illness or geopolitical disruption.

  36. I re-read my 8:01pm comment and I want to clarify as I don’t want to appear hypocritical. Zaphod didn’t bother me personally. I found some of what he wrote absurd, some clever, some funny, some tiresome…

    He was often critical, especially of four traits, three immutable characteristics and one mutable. The three immutable; black, Jewish and female. The one mutable (or somewhat voluntary), “American.” The only one that applies to me is “American,” and I agreed with some of his points about America and Americans. I disagreed with his points on blacks, Jews and women, but being neither I’m not the best arbiter of how personally offensive those very frequent comments were. Neo fits 3/4 of those categories and it’s her blog, so I can understand her generous patience running thin.

  37. Bob Kantor:

    If you think that’s passionless, you should hear the other YouTube choices for readings.

  38. I’ll miss Zaphod. I haven’t been able to bounce off someone like that in a while.

    However, his fury towards Americans… He could still be friendly and I hoped the friendliness would win.

    But he was on quite a tear that last night. It seemed like he felt free finally to pummel us as he wished.

    If someone is that passionate against Americans, well fine. I’m sure we deserve some of it. However, I feel no obligation to hold still and be someone’s punching bag because they feel so strongly.

    Zaphod reminded me of the New Left radicals I’ve met — complete with Red China envy. Bright, knowledgeable and dying to beat up on regular Americans.

  39. Neo:

    I regret someone had to be banned, but it was well deserved in this past case.

    It would be helpful if all of us who comment could avoid responding to other commenters a (except for a reply that adds to the overall discussion), and especially the comment-riposte-further riposte pattern. So little is accomplished when commenters have to reply to other commenters who are replying to an earlier post by them. It’s an ego trip on the part of the people who are replying, and the rest of us really don’t get much benefit from the back-and-forth.

  40. PA Cat, AF, just saw these posts now, for which thanks.
    Pfizer has a lot to answer for, as do its enablers. They all do.

    I actually posted AF’s link to “CUMULATIVE ANALYSIS…” link several minutes ago on a more recent thread, not having seen this one. Absolutely amazing information…and yet, not surprising, unfortunately. No wonder they “needed” 50-75 years…
    (One can only hope that the adverse effects are somehow limited—but once again, how can anyone possibly know until a fair amount of time passes.)

    The real crime, it seems to me, is the absolute refusal (by the crooked powers that be) to opt for TREATMENT (and PREVENTION or MITIGATION) with proven, existing drugs. Not just “absolute refusal” but denying the history and efficacy of such TREATMENTS and ridiculing their use while essentially CANCELING the whole subject (except to ridicule and deny it).

    “Hi! We’re from the drug companies and we’re here to help you…”
    And they did, alas, “help”—but at what cost?…since AT THE SAME TIME there existed other, safer AND effective (but less remunerative) options…
    We don’t know the final ramifications of the vaccines, since there simply wasn’t enough time to test those ramifications…but what HAS emerged so far (and what was warned about throughout by many epidemiologists—if suppressed by the usual suspects) is not encouraging.

  41. }}} But obviously our beneficent technocrat overlords base their public health decisions on polling rather than anything like science or whatever.

    Well, pretty clearly, it’s all OUR fault, for putting up with this shit this long in the first place.

    And that’s ha-ha only serious. :-/

  42. }}} The Federal Reserve should be audited. Then eliminated.

    …As in: “Lined up against a wall and…”?

    😛

    }}} Your first two points are reasonable. The rest are crank nonsense.

    The last three are reasonable. Debatable, but reasonable. The budget deficit of this nation only really got out of hand when we started giving the Fed waaaaay too much money to play with. So, no, Art, it’s far from a “crank” position. The best way to keep a government under control — and to reduce corruption — is to keep its pockets empty, so no one has anything to buy a legislator for.

  43. }}} developing a plan to balance the federal budget with a mix of spending cuts and tax hikes.

    Yes, because that has worked so well to rein in the spending juggernaut in the past, hasn’t it?

    }}} In the course of that, you can remove all the tax preferences for various economic sectors incorporated into the code.

    How about eliminating the 100,000 pages of “tax code” entirely?

    Replace it with 2 pages, double-spaced, 16-pt Courier type on standard 8.5×11 pages?

    Single-Sided.

    If they really whine a lot, up it to 3 pages, max.

  44. Note that the above is only mildly facetious. It should be absolutely limited in the manner suggested to some reasonable, rational amount, so that if they want to put something more into it, they have to remove something else.

    You will never, ever get government to cut back on expenditures without taking an axe to it and the bureaucrats.

    It’s not like pulling teeth, it’s like pulling a dead antelope from a pack of starving February wolves.

  45. Yes, because that has worked so well to rein in the spending juggernaut in the past, hasn’t it?

    The President and Congress effected an 80% cut in military spending and demobilized more than 90% of our men in uniform, as well as balancing the budget during the period running from 1945 to 1947.

    I have no clue how you propose to reduce spending except through the appropriations process.

    How about eliminating the 100,000 pages of “tax code” entirely? Replace it with 2 pages, double-spaced, 16-pt Courier type on standard 8.5×11 pages?

    Because you likely cannot define just what it is you are taxing and what the rate structure is and what the reasonable qualifications are with just two pages of text.

  46. Now that everyone is sick and tired of Covid—so that it’s become political poison— we can now discard the Covid restrictions but have segued almost seamlessly into the Ukraine crisis. Hmmm.
    Here are two distinct but related analyses of the Covid-to-Ukraine “transition”:
    ‘…Why the political class needs Ukraine to end discussion about COVID’—
    https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-why-the-political-class-needs-ukraine-to-end-discussion-about-covid
    ‘…Russia Is The New “Excuse Variant” For The Fed’—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/peter-schiff-russia-new-excuse-variant-fed

    So is Putin a political “godsend” (at least for some…)?

  47. The last three are reasonable. Debatable, but reasonable. The budget deficit of this nation only really got out of hand when we started giving the Fed waaaaay too much money to play with.

    Other than the operating budget of the board and it’s staff, none of the Fed’s activities are a function of the appropriations process. The Fed sets its discount rate and trades securities for cash, sometimes buying, sometimes selling. This regulates the dimensions of the monetary base and the money multiplier.

    The budget deficit got out of hand when Congress refused systematically to match expenditures and revenues. That began on a small scale around 1961, on a larger scale about 10 years later and the propensity has increased in a stepwise fashion since then. The Fed does not purchase securities from the Treasury so has no part in this process. The Fed makes its purchases on the secondary market. The Fed is responsible for monetary policy, not fiscal policy.

    The last three are reasonable. Debatable, but reasonable.

    Nope, not in the least.

  48. I have a suspicion that Zaphod’s back story was fictional. He occasionally made remarks which suggested he was unfamiliar with American life, but people of a certain bent often paint portraits that resemble only regions in their mind, no matter where they live. Much of what he had to say seemed recycled from Unz comboxes, but he denied participating there. He also made repeated references to the blogger Z-man, who is commonly present in Unz comboxes.

    Ron Unz editorial policy is to provide a forum for anyone who can write coherent sentences in English. So, you have a bizarre collection of bloggers, who run the gamut from red haze types (James Petras) to Stormfront types (Andrew Anglin, among others). If a majority in that crab bucket do not subscribe to crank nonsense about Jews, it’s still astonishingly common there.

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