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As Colorado goes, so goes Maine — 56 Comments

  1. I enjoyed Matt Taibbi’s reaction to this today.

    I’m no lawyer, but I doubt the 14th Amendment was designed to empower unelected state officials to unilaterally strike major party frontrunners from the presidential ballot. If it was, that’s a shock. I must have missed that in AP Insane Legal Loopholes class.

    https://www.racket.news/p/the-mess-in-maine?utm_source=substack&publication_id=1042&post_id=140169848&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=false&r=pq11j

  2. I like how the judges in Colorado and the Secretary of State In Maine have completely abandoned the concept of innocent until proven guilty. They both talk about the evidence. The same evidence that the Capitol policeman who died was beaten with a fire extinguisher?

    If there was any real evidence Trump would have been on trial long before now.

  3. I could have written this, and possibly actually did write this, at many points over the past decade (at least), but here it comes, possibly again: my thorough contempt for these people just keeps growing and growing, evidently without bound or stricture.

  4. California’s Secretary of State has officially announced that Trump will be remaining on the ballot. Gov. Newsome has reportedly endorsed the decision.

  5. IANAL. Since We the People™ have the right to vote for whoever we please, could a complaint be filed for deprivation of civil rights under color of law? Can she be removed for this?

    It’s not enough to get this action shut down. She should be removed as a warning to others. Right now, there are no consequences for this level of virtue signaling.

  6. I just told my Wife that this isn’t an attack just on Trump, but on ALL Republicans, and really All Voters.
    Another one forgot the Harry Reid Rule.

  7. I have a leftist friend who’s maniacally anti-Trump. Apropos his enthusiasm for the Colorado and Maine actions, I suggested, mildly, to him that to convince tens of millions of citizens that our elections are no longer legitimate might have bad consequences for all of us. I’m not sure he even understood my point. In his mind there can be no greater threat than another Trump presidency.

  8. Occasional Commenter,

    Bullseye! Accountability requires that consequences be personal…

    Mac,

    Count on it, under the right conditions, “friends’ like that will turn on you because their ‘friendship’ is conditional upon you not being seen as an intransigent obstacle to their ideological goals.

  9. Neo: “I believe she’s nevertheless doing this to get attention.”

    Right, and make themselves more appealing to their leftist base. Problem is quite soon mere posturing isnt going to be enough to satisfy the mob.

  10. I read a comment somewhere else which I cannot find now. I’m not a lawyer, but the gist of the comment seemed to be that either a tributary, or main trunk of the plan with these ballot rulings is exactly to get them to the Supreme Court. The SC will overturn the states, thus further delegitimizing the SC in the eyes of the Left. From there, the struggle continues with a notch in their belt.

  11. ^^ Especially when the Supreme Court would probably decide the issue along party lines as per the new usual.

  12. Neo – “I believe that nevertheless she is doing this to get attention”.

    That’s exactly it and nothing more. While at the gym today I watched some of the MSM coverage and she was obviously enjoying her 15 minutes of national attention. She knows that this will be overturned but doesn’t care, because at the moment she’s a hero among her left wing friends. A shallow and unserious person.

  13. I must have missed that in AP Insane Legal Loopholes class.

    –Matt Taibbi linked by Kate

    Oh man, I didn’t even know there was an “AP Insane Legal Loopholes” class.

    Is there an online version? Or is that the “New York Times”?

  14. In the 1860 election, the Southern states kept Lincoln off the ballot. Interesting that the Democrats are piecemeal doing the same for the 2024 election.

    In Venezuela, Maduro did the same, keeping prominent opposition candidates off the Presidential ballot after he had to deal with the opposition winning two-thirds of the seats in the December 2015 legislative elections. IIRC, Maduro dissolved the legislature. After all, an oppo-dominated legislature didn’t reflect the will of the “people.” 🙂

  15. Gringo:

    I appreciate your finer-grain historical comments.

    I’ve long been fascinated by the Copperhead Democrats:
    _______________________________

    In the 1860s, the Copperheads, also known as Peace Democrats, were a faction of the Democratic Party in the Union who opposed the American Civil War and wanted an immediate peace settlement with the Confederates.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copperhead_(politics)
    _______________________________

    I would like to know more. Even if history doesn’t repeat, it does sometimes rhyme.

  16. I have 0 faith the Supreme Court isn’t anything but a political organization, they rule how the winds blow not any written law.

  17. huxley, if you are interested in the Copperheads, you might consider reading Copperheads: The Rise and Fall of Lincoln’s Opponents in the North, by Jennifer Weber.

  18. In Venezuela, Maduro did the same, keeping prominent opposition candidates off the Presidential ballot

    And we’ve been treated since 1980 or so of the spectacle of ‘elections’ in Iran, in which only those blessed by the Politburo, or whatever Islam calls it, may run for office. I think Colorado and Maine and Ms. Bellows are in seriously bad company, and should reconsider.

  19. And one more thing regarding corruption of ‘democracy’ – I’ve been a life member of the Sierra Club since 1954, and can recall that elections for its Board were once open to all candidates.

    No more! Its Nominating Committee developed Politburo skills some years ago, and dourly de-ballots anyone who might lack some tiny fraction of the rectitude required for Keeping the Faith of its sacred mission. Maduro, eat your heart out.

  20. Surely this only applies if Trump is convicted of Insurrection? But what you will see is the rule of law in action. The Supreme Court will reject this move just as so many states have.

    However I have little doubt that if Biden and his supporters had lost in 2020 and behaved as Trump and his followers did on 6/1/21 then there would be many on here calling for far stronger action than a legal process.

    This is the dilemma the USA now inhabits. You appear to hate and mistrust each other far more than many of your rivals or enemies.

  21. DCL:

    Incorrect.

    The Democrats have been saying for many years that the Republican victories in 2000 and 2016 were bogus. See this for 2016:

    Democrats and leftists rioted at Trump’s inauguration, hurt officers, and destroyed property.

    Also this:

    And this around the Kavanaugh nomination:

    In a full-day of demonstrations on Capitol Hill, hundreds of mostly women protesters raised fists and shouted “Lock Him Up” in front of the Supreme Court, unfurled banners inside a Senate office building and even blocked a Senate elevator door to directly confront Sen. Jeff Flake on live TV.

    Angry protesters marched and shouted in, around and through the marbled buildings that dot Capitol Hill even as members of the Senate Judiciary were gingerly advancing the controversial nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the full Senate for a vote next week.

    Arrests were plentiful. Some for blocking hallways, others for unfurling banners reading “Withdraw Kavanaugh. No Abusees on the Supreme Court” from the upper floors of the Hart Senate Office Building. …

    “We will not be bullied,” Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., told the demonstrators in front of the Supreme Court building where Kavanaugh hopes to sit soon.

    At one point, the crowd broke out in a chant of “Lock him up! Lock him up!”

    And also this:

    A throng of protesters pushed past a police line, storming up steps to pound on the doors of the U.S. Supreme Court on Saturday after the Senate confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh.

    “Hey, hey! Ho, ho! Kavanaugh has got to go,” the protesters chanted as they flooded the steps of the court, many with fists raised in the air, others with arms linked.

    Police eventually were able to form a line between the door and the group of protesters and later shepherded them back down the steps before erecting a barricade.

    The protest at the Supreme Court came shortly after Vice President Mike Pence walked down the steps of the U.S. Senate to chants of “shame” after the vote to confirm Kavanaugh.

    Droves of protesters pressed up against metal barricades outside the Capitol Building to shout at Pence, who was forced to face their chants as he left.

    The vote itself, which ultimately confirmed the embattled judge who faced multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, was periodically interrupted with the shouts of protesters in the gallery. Pence called on the sergeant-at-arms a number of times to restore order during the vote.

    They certainly were attempting to disrupt an “official proceeding,” but that law wasn’t weaponized against them as it was for so many of the non-violent J6 demonstrators.

    And then there were the Floyd riots in DC:

    Secret Service agents rushed President Donald Trump to a White House bunker on Friday night as hundreds of protesters gathered outside the executive mansion, some of them throwing rocks and tugging at police barricades.

    Trump spent nearly an hour in the bunker, which was designed for use in emergencies like terrorist attacks, according to a Republican close to the White House who was not authorized to publicly discuss private matters and spoke on condition of anonymity. The account was confirmed by an administration official who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

    The abrupt decision by the agents underscored the rattled mood inside the White House, where the chants from protesters in Lafayette Park could be heard all weekend and Secret Service agents and law enforcement officers struggled to contain the crowds.

    And yet no Republican ever has tried to take those lawmakers who encouraged, aided, and abetted these riots (and there were plenty of them) off any ballots. No one’s calling for “stronger action than a legal process” – whatever you mean by that. However, some people on the right are saying that if the left’s ploy of taking Trump off the ballot is allowed by SCOTUS to stand, the right should take Biden off the ballot in states they control.

    Also, unless SCOTUS rejects the Colorado and Maine attempts unanimously, that would say a lot about the justices (who would almost certainly be among the ones on the left) who would vote in favor of it.

  22. I’ve been a life member of the Sierra Club since 1954

    The Sierra Club is a radical left-wing organization.

  23. Sorry Neo but that sort of makes my point. I have US friends who are Republicans and Democrats and they seem to find it easier to talk to me about politics than each other. I don’t understand how as a whole country you have become so viciously divided. The Blue think so badly of the Red and the Red loathe the Blue.

    The poor old Supreme Court is going to be seen as politically biased whichever side wins. You all appear to be losing faith in your constituency and political system.

    The reason I don’t like Trump is because he appears determined to make this division worse in order to get elected. I simply can’t imagine Reagan doing that. The reason I find so many in the Democrats distasteful is exactly the same.

    When you have democratic elections you accept the results and move on. If there are complaints about hanging chads or mail in ballots you look to improve the system not deny the legitimacy of the result.

    People in England look at US politics in real fear. Not because they favour one side, although Trump is largely seen as a very unfunny joke, but because there is a real love and admiration for the US and many of its systems. Plus we are reliant on the US for economic and military stability.

  24. DCL,
    Since you obviously live in the UK, you really can’t understand the internal situation here in the US unless you live here. In a way it’s like us here in America looking at the situation in Britain and coming to the conclusion that y’all are already 9/10s of the way to complete socialism and total government control over your lives. The actual situation is probably more complex, and I’m sure you could explain it to us better.

    If you have been reading Neo’s blog for any length of time, then you should understand about how the left in the US has made it a goal to slowly take over the major institutions of the country; starting with higher education. They have essentially succeeded in this endeavor over a 40 year or so period. As a result, a growing proportion of the population has been indoctrinated away from what one would call, standard American values such as individual freedom, capitalism, meritocracy that is color/sex blind. That proportion is close to 50%.

    The rest of us, see all the essential features of the country being eroded and under attack. We love what the US was, and will fight to preserve, as was once said, “the last best hope”. You also have to understand the level of hate from the left…it’s a primary motivation for them. I don’t see that from the right, though the tolerance is waning rapidly.

    You are correct in one aspect: as was noted here a few days ago we are in a civil war here; a cold war for now. And, as historians such as VDH have noted, the Democrats and left are repeating much of what they did leading up to 1860. I hope to whatever Deity that the situation does not turn hot, but it is the entirely the left/Democrats fault if it does.

  25. Victor David Hanson’s latest column amplifies physicsguy’s cogent point.

    The Left — really the far Left that’s taken over the Democrat Party under Obama — are the prime movers to fascism and trashing Americanism of all kinds.

    The far Left simply wants total power. The only issue that remains: “Who’s gonna stop us?” Democrats were the Party of Slave-holding, yet they’ve never completely abandoned the ideal of slave-driving tyranny. Never.

    “Our razor’s edge” leaves us on the precipice. “For weeks, the American people have been relatively silent as they digested these ongoing catastrophes. But at some point, their patience will run out.

    “Americans will then collectively conclude that Joe Biden has never been truthful about vast ill-gotten funds that have enriched his family; that Harvard is no longer preeminent or even prestigious; and that people who do not like us, our laws, and our values should try cheering on the work of Hamas from their own homes [instead of in public].”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/victor-davis-hanson-exposes-our-razors-edge

  26. The october surprise the iran contra investigation the kennedy tunney back channel to the soviets the seven special counsels including two for ed meeses

    In your own country how did they react to brexit they treated it as a russian op cambridge analytica how they went after cummings how they debanked farage i could go on

  27. People in the UK haven’t done squat about Rotherham, and are so concerned about feelings that they will arrest you if you say something “offensive” to or about a protected class anywhere (no freedom of speech or thought). The land of 1984.

    Worse than glass houses DCL.

  28. IT CONTINUES. Elon Musk notes on X the fact that there is more illegal immigration going on in the US than native births.

    THIS is the Great Replacement in action. Posted reactions completes the circle.

    “ Texas Gov. Greg Abbott recently wrote on X: ’I’ve never seen such hostility to the rule of law in America. Biden is destroying America.’

    X user Robby Starbuck responded to Musk’s post, noting:

    Robby Starbuck on X:
    @robbystarbuck
    Follow

    This is literally “the great replacement” in action. I’m Latino so I don’t want to hear how the great replacement is racist. It’s not. It’s political. Dems want more illegals so they can manufacture votes and cheap labor. They also want it to happen so fast that no one assimilates.

    It’s why far left cities are now legalizing illegals voting and places like California let them get licenses, pass a law for automatic voter registration when you get a license and then “accidentally” register them to vote when they get their license. None of this is hard to figure out. They want to destroy the foundations of our country so they can steal total power.
    10:07 AM · Dec 29, 2023

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/what-great-replacement-theory-musk-exposes-immense-growing-size-illegal-immigration

    POWER TO RULE TOTALLY is the FAKE “Democrat’s” goal, and seen in the Party’s Platform to make D enclave like DC and Puerto Rico (against there will THREE times voted down) into New States to further their hammer lock.
    And endorsing Packing The Supreme Court with loyal D drones to improve upon FDR’s attempted yet effectively achieved far Left Packing.

    Then Ds will own and run every branch of national government.

  29. Huxley, Insane Legal Loopholes are regularly found in the NY Times and the Washington Post. No AP class required.

  30. DCL

    The reason I don’t like Trump is because he appears determined to make this division worse in order to get elected. I simply can’t imagine Reagan doing that. The reason I find so many in the Democrats distasteful is exactly the same.

    Recall the multitudinous times that Democrats called Trump a Nazi. (There was also a Stern cover w Trump giving a Nazi salute) A Nazi with a Jewish son-in-law. A Nazi who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. A Nazi who played a part in some Arab countries establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Whaat a Nazi!!!

    During the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton called Republicans “deplorables.” Or in 2012, Biden said to a mixed race group that Republicans were trying to put them “back in chains.”

    One difference between Trump and previous Republican Presidents or Presidential candidates is that while they “nobly” did not respond to Democrat attacks on them, Trump fought back. For the most part, Trump doesn’t initiate attacks, but responds to them. (Chimpy McBush Hitler- remember that?) Like Neo and many commenters here, I was not initially a Trump supporter. When I saw that Trump was responding in kind to Democrat attacks on him, I decided I would support him.

    As previous Republicans( Bush, McCain, Romney..) got attacked by Democrats, the logical conclusion is that if Trump were to follow the “polite” path that they did, the Democrat attacks would continue. Unilateral disarmament, as it were.

    A question for DCL: do you know what famous phrase “As Colorado, so goes Maine,” refers to- without looking it up? I very much doubt it.

    Here is a summary of Democrats playing the Nazi card on Republicans.
    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/how-can-you-tell-its-over-for-liberals.php

    Speaking about comparing Republicans to Hitler, do you recall German politician Herta Daubler-Gemelin back in 2002 comparing Bush to Hitler? Her father was an attorney who was high up in the German administration in Slovakia during WW2. IIRC, assistant to the head guy who got executed after 1945. Part of his administrative duties were to make sure that the trains transporting Jews to the camps were running on schedule. He spent three years in prison after WW2. Somehow I think that, given her family background, Herta Daubler Gemelin is not qualified to compare Bush to Hitler.

  31. Jordan Rivers

    The Sierra Club is a radical left-wing organization.

    That’s now. In 1954 it was a lofty social club that liked to ride into the Sierras on herds of horses and camp out and enjoy the outdoors.

    But who was it who said that any organization that doesn’t resist ultimately morphs into the left wing? Sierra Club is a prime example, along with the Ford Foundation et al…

  32. I am genuinely interested in all your responses but none seem to address the concern about the way Americans seem to see each other as enemies. We have divisions here in the UK but nothing like the scale in the US. It may be our Party system makes a difference. For example many Conservatives supported Brexit but a substantial minority voted remain. While in the Labour Party a substantial group supported Brexit. It feels a lot less binary. But as someone pointed out I am not there and things are probably a great deal more complex. However someone else described it as a Civil War. Which sounds like a very bad idea for everyone.

    Does anyone have a plan for bringing America together rather than just defeating, annihilating or humiliating the other side? Or are all US politicians now in one of the two teams?

  33. DCL:

    I think your lofty attitude about your own country is unwarranted, and you fail to understand many things about this one. There’s apparently a ton of anger in both countries that is mostly against the elites.

  34. DCL,

    Again, you miss what we are saying. To put it simply: the Democrat party, which even 20 or so years ago, was liberal leaning but still had a large contingent that actually cared about the state of the country. The Democrat party of today has been totally taken over by the far left. Of course, in a textbook example of projection they claim Republicans are “extremists”. However, it is truly they who are striving for complete dictatorial power and a dismantling of all traditional American institutions.

    It’s not quite as extreme as Hamas vs Israel, but when one faction seeks total dominance over the other, the hippy notion of “give peace a chance” is naive. We’ve tried talking and trying to meet in the middle; it doesn’t work. We are quickly running out of options. It is a sad situation, but until the Democrats change, we move closer to a real conflict.

  35. “ but until the Democrats change, we move closer to a real conflict.”

    Wow. That is possibly the most alarming thing I have read today. If both you and the left believe the only solution is the other side changing or there will be civil war……. Well how does that work? How does it end? How many deaths?

    You are right about anger against the elites in the US and UK. Our laughably corrupt ‘honours’ system has been annoying the country today. But we are a very long way from civil war. For a start the population is largely unarmed. But there simply isn’t the same level of mutual loathing and incomprehension.

    Is there any possible peaceful future for the USA?

  36. “If both you and the left believe the only solution is the other side changing or there will be civil war……”

    Again, you get it wrong. We would like the Democrats to kick out the far left which has taken over the party and become what they once were…yes we’d like them to change. However the left doesn’t want normal Americans or the Republican party to change, they want us destroyed. Huge difference.

    Maybe the Hamas-Isreal analogy is actually apt. Hamas doesn’t want Isreal to change. They want to destroy it. Same here.

  37. Rotherham, Thought Police, an unarmed public, stabbings so often that kitchen knives are as regulated as select fire weapons are in the US (an exaggeration).

    DCL, your house needs some fixin’. So tend to it before you lecture us.

  38. “ but until the Democrats change, we move closer to a real conflict.”

    And the same applies to Hamas. When one side is irrevocably devoted to aggression and ‘winning’, no diplomat can relieve the hostility. Look how long the ‘diplomats’ billed and cooed with each other and Hamas, self-delusively thinking that their ‘diplomacy’ (and untold billions transferred for domestic purposes) would bring Hamas purring into the fold.

    Churchill and Roosevelt were right – unconditional surrender is required, and even that only lasts a generation or two.

    The Democrats have that attitude. The Republicans lack it.

  39. Perfidious Albion I would say

    that is the diversity Effendi Khan says they need more of

    I thought Gangs of London was kind of extreme, but seriously,

  40. @ Gringo > “do you know what famous phrase “As Colorado, so goes Maine,” refers to- without looking it up?”

    I had to look it up.
    Fortunately, Google helped by suggesting the quote you parodied (well done!)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Maine_goes%2C_so_goes_the_nation

    In fact, for such a short maxim, the ironic-complexity-level rose quite high.
    (Absolutely a genuine social science statistic I just invented.)

  41. @ DCL > “Americans seem to see each other as enemies. We have divisions here in the UK but nothing like the scale in the US. It may be our Party system makes a difference. … It feels a lot less binary.”

    The two major US parties were, in the past, a lot less binary, as several people here have noted. There are studies documenting the shift.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/

    It’s become commonplace among observers of U.S. politics to decry partisan polarization in Congress. Indeed, a Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.

    But the dynamics behind today’s congressional polarization have been long in the making. The analysis of members’ ideological scores finds that the current standoff between Democrats and Republicans is the result of several overlapping trends that have been playing themselves out – and sometimes reinforcing each other – for decades.

    Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive. There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72.
    Both parties have moved further away from the ideological center since the early 1970s. Democrats on average have become somewhat more liberal, while Republicans on average have become much more conservative. [SEE CAVEAT BELOW]

    The geographic and demographic makeup of both congressional parties has changed dramatically. Nearly half of House Republicans now come from Southern states, while nearly half of House Democrats are Black, Hispanic or Asian/Pacific Islander.
    [NOTE the sleight-of-factor prestidigitation here; these are NOT comparable statistics.]

    The Center’s analysis is based on DW-NOMINATE, a method that uses lawmakers’ roll-call votes to place them in a two-dimensional ideological space. It is designed to produce scores that are comparable across time. This analysis focuses on the first dimension, which is essentially the economic and governmental aspects of the familiar left-right spectrum and ranges from 1 (most conservative) to -1 (most liberal).

    Between the 92nd Congress of 1971-72 and the current 117th Congress, both parties in both the House and the Senate have shifted further away from the center, but Republicans more so. House Democrats, for example, moved from about -0.31 to -0.38, meaning that over time they’ve become modestly more liberal on average. House Republicans, by contrast, moved from 0.25 to nearly 0.51, a much bigger increase in the conservative direction.

    As Democrats have grown more liberal over time and Republicans much more conservative, the “middle” – where moderate-to-liberal Republicans could sometimes find common ground with moderate-to-conservative Democrats on contentious issues – has vanished.

    Five decades ago, 144 House Republicans were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and 52 House Democrats were less liberal than the most liberal Republican, according to the analysis. But that zone of ideological overlap began to shrink, as conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans – increasingly out of step with their caucuses and their constituents – either retired, lost reelection bids or, in a few cases, switched parties.

    Since 2002, when Republican Rep. Constance Morella of Maryland was defeated for reelection and GOP Rep. Benjamin Gilman of New York retired, there’s been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House. In the Senate, the end of overlap came in 2004, when Democrat Zell Miller of Georgia retired.

    Ever since, the gaps between the least conservative Republicans and least liberal Democrats in both the House and Senate have widened – making it ever less likely that there’s any common ground to find.

    The ideological shifts in the congressional parties have occurred alongside – and, perhaps to some extent, because of – geographic and demographic shifts in their composition.

    CAVEAT Far be it from me to tangle with Pew’s research, but I would have to look into their methodology and definitions to see what they mean by center, liberal, and conservative, as well as exactly which roll call votes they read their positions out of.

    Either they are totally ignoring the lurch to the far left since 2008, or the Democrats were even further left before that than I supposed. Of course, we could just have been smothered in the media blanket and thus ignorant of the true-left course of their votes from the beginning of the chart in 1971.

    In which case, why were Republicans so CLOSE to what would be a very leftist “center” in the earlier years?

    I don’t dispute that the Republicans actually moved to the Right as more conservatives were elected, and as the public cottoned onto the rot setting in from compromising with Democrat policies in a vain attempt to do whatever it was they were tryin to do.

    Somewhat like Israel coddling Hamas in hopes they could soften their anti-Jewish hatred & destructiveness. Just an analogy; no offense to any Democrats or liberals on the board.

    The Leaders of both parties don’t necessarily represent their constituents’ political preferences, and maybe never have.

  42. I was musing, what the did placid reasonable (leftish ) Brits think and say about Margaret Thatcher, and her opposition to the socialist utopia they were working towards?

  43. Elon Musk agrees with me about the vector of the political shift, in his notorious seesaw meme, and Sexton validates my caveats.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1519735033950470144

    https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/04/29/the-ongoing-battle-over-elon-musks-political-polarization-meme-n465910

    What he’s saying is that he didn’t move to the right, the left moved so far left that his position now appears right-of-center. Musk confirmed that was his point in another tweet.

    I strongly supported Obama for President, but today’s Democratic Party has been hijacked by extremists
    — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 29, 2022

    Nevertheless, the initial meme has launched a pitched battle about whether there’s any truth to the idea that the left has moved to the far left. And it turns out it’s not such a simple question to answer. The pushback on the left came in the form of a tweet thread featuring several different graphs designed to show the opposite, i.e. that the right have moved fa[r]ther to the extreme than the left.

    I won’t have time to go over all of these but, contrary to what Morris claims, it’s not that simple. For instance, the first graph he posted comes from PEW and is a visualization of something called DW-Nominate date over time.

    This does show the right moving more to the right than the left moved to the left but it’s important to understand what this means. DW-Nominate scores voting patterns in a range from -1 to 1. They show the likelihood of individuals voting in lockstep with the party, not what those votes are about. In other words, someone who is quite far left can appear more centrist on this scale because they are more willing to buck the party. For instance, DW-Nominate scores AOC as a centrist.

    IOW, despite the labels on their graphs, Pew was not measuring “liberal” and “conservative” ideologies against each other, but “conformers” to the Party Label on the outside (later) end vs. “mavericks” on the central (earlier) end.

    Kind of exactly the reverse of what it LOOKS LIKE on the main page, which IMO is deceptive. They did NOT make the same point Sexton did, but only linked to their “How we did it” page, which does not clarify the procedure at all.

    See a better explanation here:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOMINATE_(scaling_method)

    In its most well-known application, members of the US Congress are placed on a two-dimensional map, with politicians who are ideologically similar (i.e. who often vote the same) being close together. One of these two dimensions corresponds to the familiar left–right political spectrum (liberal–conservative in the United States).

    The second dimension has been dropped, as being insufficiently useful.

    So, yes, the “bulk” of the Democrats, by voting more in lockstep, have only moved a little to the left because they have always been more cohesive voting together for the leftist policies. The Republicans, on the other hand, are showing more cohesion than formerly, which “translates” to “more conservative” (and doesn’t necessarily mean that ideologically, as the recent Speaker fracas demonstrated).

    https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/studies-in-american-political-development/article/abs/substance-and-change-in-congressional-ideology-nominate-and-its-alternatives/681859D264663F5B92A3F6CD225D71ED

    Abstract
    Poole and Rosenthal’s NOMINATE scores have been a boon to the study of Congress, but they are not without limitations. We focus on two limitations that are especially important in historical applications. First, the dimensions uncovered by NOMINATE do not necessarily have a consistent ideological meaning over time. Our case study of the 1920s highlights the challenge of interpreting NOMINATE scores in periods when party lines do not map well onto the main contours of ideological debate in political life. Second, the commonly used DW-NOMINATE variant of these scores makes assumptions that are not well suited to dealing with rapid or non-monotonic ideological change.

    However, I do think the GOP as a whole (such as that may be) has moved somewhat “further right” on some issues because there are more Congresscritters voting for conservative positions together.
    Sort of.
    It’s complicated.

  44. Addenda to tonight’s seminar paper:
    A little bit more from John Sexton, who really went on a deep dive.
    https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/04/29/the-ongoing-battle-over-elon-musks-political-polarization-meme-n465910

    Suffice it to say that DW-Nominate doesn’t really capture the ideological movement of the party (right or left). Yesterday, Philip Bump looked at this and, to his credit, admitted there are problems with using DW-Nominate scores to measure something like this.

    There are a lot of valid criticisms of DW-NOMINATE in general that we could examine, but it’s not a great measure of what Musk is talking about anyway. Instead, let’s consider how Americans actually identify their own politics. Luckily, we have a metric for that: evaluations of ideology as measured in the biennial General Social Survey (GSS). The survey asks people to score their identity on a scale from one (extremely liberal) to seven (extremely conservative). In the middle is four, moderate.

    Here’s how members of each party (including those who identify themselves as “strong” partisans) have rated their ideology on average since 2002.

    What you’ll notice is that Democrats and strong Democrats have, in fact, gotten more liberal — but that Republicans and strong Republicans were far more polarized in the first place.


    The NY Times looked at a similar chart put together by a group called the Manifesto Project back in 2019. Again, it showed the GOP was further right that most right-wing parties worldwide and placed the Democrats just left of the median. However, when looked at over time the story noted US Democrats were moving left:

    Similar to the data Philip Bump looked at, this suggests the US started with a center of gravity further to the right but that recently the left has been pushing substantially to the left. And if you once again imagine someone who is pretty close to the left on policy circa 2008, that person is closer to the right in 2016.

    Of course there are plenty of objections you could make about this chart as well. Does the language of political platforms really capture where the party is at in any meaningful way? My point is only that there is some data that sort of backs up the idea behind Musk’s meme, i.e. that some people who considered themselves basically on the left might now feel the party has moved away from them.

    One of Sexton’s references, from Morris’s thread, also by Bump a few years previously:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/08/new-era-democratic-politics-one-graph/

    In its surveys conducted over the course of 1994, about half of Democrats identified themselves as moderates — while as many identified as conservative as did liberal. This was the year in which Republicans retook the House in dramatic fashion; well over half of the party told Gallup that they, too, were conservatives.

    Since then, though, there’s been a steady shift on the left. In every single year save one, Gallup’s polling has found the percentage of Democrats who identify as liberal has either increased or stayed the same. In its most recent poll, released Tuesday, a new benchmark was set: More than half of Democrats now identify as liberals. By comparison, only about 1 in 8 identify as conservative.

    In 2017, the Pew Research Center found a widening gulf between Democrats and Republicans on a number of political issues over the same period — a widening gulf that revealed partisanship as the biggest indicator of political differences.

    On a number of issues included in Pew’s research, the movement among Democrats was more significant than that among Republicans.

    That Trumpist shift is also visible in the first graph above. A party that was two-thirds conservative in 1994 is now three-quarters conservative. As is also the case with “liberal,” that term also means something different from what it meant 25 years ago.

  45. @ AesopFan

    That is a lot of interesting stuff to think about. I didn’t realise the polarisation was so long term. It makes me wonder how much is down to the electoral system although you would expect that to create greater focus on swing voters.

    My feeling in the UK is parties do well when they straddle the middle. A mix of social conservatism, economic liberalism and effective running of state services and institutions. Fail on more than one of those and you won’t get elected. Pretty much the model followed here by Margaret Thatcher. It pushes parties to the centre – where Labour is heading, as the extremes lose, as Labour have repeatedly proved and the Conservatives are about to experience.

    Is increased US partisanship due to the change in Media? A more partisan broadcast and print media plus social media leaving voters in their own echo chambers. That’s been suggested in the UK although I am not that convinced.

    And the question remains of how do you pull a country together? Does the US want to remain a single powerful federal nation or become something else? Do states like California and Florida have anything in common? Is there any reason to stick together.

    And then there is the Trump factor. Like most Brits I just don’t see the appeal and certainly don’t see him as a Conservative. But he obviously pulls in voters. We had a slightly similar character in Boris Johnson but it really didn’t take long for his act to fall apart. Plus he took a more self effacing approach as the bombastic egotistical Trump shtick just wouldn’t work here.

    My fear is that Trumps route to success is to create more division, to seek to enrage not only his opponents but his supporters as well. He must be delighted with all the court room appearances as it plays right into his hands. Once he is elected, and I do think he will win as Biden is woeful, you will see some very rapid changes to the US State and Constitution – mainly in the power of the President – as well as global influence.

    Good luck to all of you whatever happens but I do hope you find more ways to talk across the aisles.

  46. ” Once he is elected, and I do think he will win as Biden is woeful, you will see some very rapid changes to the US State and Constitution – mainly in the power of the President”

    OMG…that statement is so funny, and so ludicrous. Obviously, you don’t live here and have witnessed over the past 3 years how the Biden administration has totally shredded the Constitution and the rule of law. Under presidential fiat, number one example is the open southern border where by the Constitution the President must uphold all the immigration laws. Instead, they have gutted all those laws. The list continues from there down to their fiats on what stoves we can buy. Constitution?? As far as the Biden administration is concerned there is no Constitution; we are far beyond what you claim Trump would do…as I said your statement is ironically laughable. Go back and look at Trump’s first term and cite for me the numerous examples of presidential power grabbing compared to the last 3 years….you can’t do it.

    Oh, BTW, if you think Biden is actually in charge from your view across the pond, I hate to tell you he is nothing more than a convenient puppet for the far left cabal. Just watch his doddering dementia to get the point. Most likely this is Obama’s shadow third term.

  47. Agree with Physicsguy @10:43 entirely. The leftist mantra that Trump governed as a dictator/fascist and will do so again is entirely counter-factual.

    I do agree with DCL that Trump isn’t really a conservative, which is why I support DeSantis. What I wonder is, when I look at the UK from the US, is whether there are any genuine conservatives over there.

  48. farage, debanked, badenuch, exed out of the leadership, I’m sure there are others, gove is reasonably so, johnson was a severe dissapointment, maybe that’s why the author of ‘head of state’ had him as transitional figure, andrew marr

    in his roman a clef, the leader of the independence forces was a woman,

  49. Miguel, you make a good point. But Badenoch didn’t make much headway in the contest for Prime Minister.

  50. DCL,

    Rest easy: there isn’t going to be any civil war. (I almost typed “silly war” there.) Yeah, if you read a lot of political blogs, they can make you think dark thoughts about the future. However, there’s a world’s worth of difference between venting on an anonymous blog and shouldering a rifle to go out to kill and be killed. The vast majority of Americans aren’t political junkies. There are millions of Red voters in Blue States, and millions of Blue voters in Red States. If you told every American to take a truth serum and then reveal his/her political opinion, she/he would be surprised to find so many friends in the opposite political camp, and so many adversaries in their own.

  51. Thanks BJ that is a more positive picture than we usually get over here. And your faith in the common sense of the majority probably right. It is hard to see what anyone gains from civil war but very easy to see what they lose.

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