Trump versus everyone else
Commenter “Molly Brown” writes in the DeSantis thread:
There is a common assumption in many of these comments that if the GOP would just nominate a more ‘mainstream, likeable, whatever you want to call it’ candidate – that candidate will have a chance to sell himself to the ‘moderate, swing, independent’ voters that Trump can’t win.
But I see no evidence of support for “mainstream” candidates, although it was certainly true years ago as recently as 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney). But now, for example, there is nothing “mainstream” about DeSantis. He is actually even to the right of Trump in his policies. That is what has allowed the media to demonize him already, before he ever declared his candidacy.
And in fact, the idea that DeSantis is somehow “mainstream” is exactly the line that has been spread about him on the right as a criticism by the Trump forces, something that I described in that recent post: that DeSantis is some sort of GOPe Jeb-light. But look at what he’s done in Florida and you will see that he has been boldly conservative. Plus, when he was in the House, he was one of the founding members of the Freedom Caucus in 2015.
And it’s also an odd thing to say he’s being presented as “likeable,” because another big criticism of DeSantis from the right is that he’s not very likeable – that he’s cold, wonky, etc.. His boosters do not call him “likeable”; they call him smart. He also has a history of fighting back, particularly against the MSM. His “likeability” quotient isn’t all that high, but he is not hated with the heat of a thousand suns by many moderates, unlike Trump. It’s certainly possible that DeSantis could end up being hated just as much as Trump and liked less, but another thing about DeSantis is that a great many people don’t know much about him and/or haven’t yet made up their minds what they think about them. But hated of Trump is baked into the cake for a lot of voters, who also find that Trump-hatred to be a potent motivator to vote in 2024 – even to vote for Biden, whom nobody much likes.
This election is quite different from previous ones. Trump is an unusual candidate, as is Biden. But so is DeSantis. And it’s very very early to tell how it will shake down. I think the vast majority of people will be voting for whomever their party nominates; it’s that group in the middle that tends to decide things. But the days of nominating a politically moderate Republican in order to supposedly appeal to that group are over. And the same is true for Democrats; no moderates can get traction, although Joe Biden sold himself as a moderate in 2020 – despite the fact that anyone who looked at his record under Obama, or actually has paid attention to the Democrats in the last decade and a half, should never have believed it. I don’t think many people are that naive anymore about Joe being a moderate politically.
Just a little while ago, commenter “wendybar” also had this to say:
The naysayers can keep naysaying, and keep voting for the Mitt Romneys and then wonder why we keep losing.
But there isn’t a single Romneyesque figure in the current GOP presidential candidate field who’s doing at all well. I suppose, though, that if the definition of a “Romney” is “anyone other than Trump,” then they are all “Romneys.” But they are not, and in particular DeSantis is not.
In addition, commenter “davemay” wrote this:
Until justice is restored, we can never go back to politics as usual. Trump vs. DeSantis (or whoever else) presupposes that elections are on the level, or even matter anymore. We cannot unsee what we have seen…
Simply, Neo, we are at war. We saw the cities burning, and that WILL HAPPEN again (no doubt there will be an inciting incident that will be used as a pretext for violence so as to ensure a Democrat, or acceptable not-Trump candidate, wins the presidency. Can the Deep State even take the chance of a free and fair election?
I have no disagreement with that, and I believe I have made it clear in the past. And of course “war” is at present a metaphor. And whether elections have been won by Democrats through outright fraud (possibly) or just through “rigging” (definitely) or through both, I also agree that the outlook is dire. But then “davemay” adds this:
To his great credit, Donald Trump exposed the rot and corruption and the sheer diabolical evil of our political class. No one else could have done it. No one else would have the courage to do it and withstand the vitriolic whirlwinds unleashed against him.
Trump exposed the rot by drawing their hatred, and if “no one else could have done it” that’s only because he was (and is) hated the most. But he was ineffectual in stopping it or fighting it, and it continues unabated to this day, with no small success. And yes, I’ve always given Trump much credit for “withstanding the vitriolic whirlwinds,” but he’s not the only strong person in the world. For example, DeSantis has already had plenty of vitriol unleashed against him during his Florida tenure, and I don’t think he’s the only one with similar courage.
What’s more, in terms of preventing voter fraud, Trump has been remarkably ineffective. Not only did he fail to stop it if in fact it’s occurring, but his efforts to right it have landed him in legal troubles – troubles in which so far he seems to be on the losing end. In contrast, DeSantis did a great deal to improve the voting rules in Florida. Most people don’t seem to be aware of this. The details can be found here. And yes, a governor has more control over a state in this regard, and Florida has a Republican legislature to greatly help. But plenty of other states with Republican-controlled legislatures have failed to accomplish what was done in Florida to make voting safer, and it was done in Florida with DeSantis’ leadership. He is well aware of the problem and has the track record to prove it (see also this).
I have no way of knowing who would be the GOP candidate most likely to beat Biden in the general (or beat the person who replaces Biden as the Democrats’ nominee). Neither do you. But I’m tired of this “Trump is the only one who…” business, and I’m tired of descriptions of DeSantis that just don’t conform to his actual history in politics. That is because this is such a vital election. We’ve been saying that for years, but it doesn’t get less true over time; it gets more true.
[NOTE: Commenter “davemay” also wrote that, “Support for Trump is not about a cult of personality. If there is no commitment to truth or justice, then what’s the point?” Support for Trump is not about a cult of personality for some people. I support Trump in the sense that I’ve supported much – in fact, most – of what he did as president, and I am outraged at the lies told to frame him. And I certainly am not part of any Trump “cult of personality.” But some Trump supporters are part of such a cult, and I see it constantly.
And to davemay’s question “If there is no commitment to truth or justice, then what’s the point?” I answer that the point is to restore that commitment. And it will not be restored by misrepresenting the strengths of other candidates or by ignoring Trump’s weaknesses, which have become more apparent since the fall of 2020.]
DeSantis is fighting more of the culture issues, so is more conservative in those areas.
Trump is more realistic on the economy. He gored a lot of sacred cows as President. Same on foreign policy. Trump has a very American First focus, which is anti globalist. Trump largely ignored the culture issues, till the end of his administration. And Trump is a bit of an isolationist, asking why is the US sacrificing to help the rest of the world. We are not the world’s policeman or bank. Trump ran against the status quo, and basically both the GOP and Democratic parties.
I’m not sure if the term conservative is even a good measurement of Trump vs DeSantis.
I’m seeing the difference of more elites vs workers, and the elites including eGOP have been pushing / funding DeSantis for President. Trump is more a populist. And somehow, Trump connects with blue collar workers across races.
I have been assuming that Joe Biden will at least be identified as corrupt, if not actually impeached because of politics.
We need a GOP nominee who can hold Biden up as the prototypical Dem who symbolizes the decay of the American political class, and a brash outsider like Trump could do just that, while also doing serious damage to the Dem party and the media who support it, so that replacing Biden is not a way to dodge a bullet for them!
In other words we need a nominee who will wage political war! I don’t see any other candidate besides Trump who has the strength to do that without succumbing to the need to be “liked” and “reach across the aisle”!
We need a nominee who can reach across the aisle and grab America’s enemies by the throat!
Ray Van Dune:
Almost nobody is “reaching across the aisle” anymore. DeSantis certainly hasn’t done it in his record in Congress or in Florida. There may be some other candidate doing it – Haley, for example? – but no one doing that is doing well at all. One thing that has occurred since 2016 is that not only has the Democratic Party moved much more to the left (or revealed itself as having moved), but the GOP has moved much further to the right.
Thank you, Neo…great exposition. I know it doesn’t mean much with the Trumpers, but they still don’t get your point:
“His “likeability” quotient isn’t all that high, but he is not hated with the heat of a thousand suns by many moderates, unlike Trump.”
Small sample size, but most of my family is MotR moderates. They basically think that both sides have huge faults and are just different sides of the same coin. They don’t make their voting decisions based on policy and record. What they do base their vote on is personality and character. All of them voted Trump in 2016 because he wasn’t Hillary whom they thought was despicable. Despite Trump’s record, they voted Biden in 2020 after seeing 4 years of Trump’s, to them, abrasive personality and the drip drip drip of the Ds accusations. No way any of them vote for Trump next year. Their opinion is why I don’t see Trump winning any moderates anywhere. No need for the Democrat’s voting manipulation if the moderates go heavy for the Democrat nominee.
Yep, make Trump the nominee and watch the Marxists totally take over.
Trump is popular with blue collar workers because he SEES them. Or at least he gives the impression he does. To the Dems, especially, blue collar workers are treated as some faceless mass. As you can imagine, this is not appreciated. I have read accounts during Trump’s presidency of him engaging with the ordinary people around him-when the media wasn’t there. The ability of a leader to make you feel that you are the most important person they have met is the heart of populism. Sadly, I feel that the Dems/DeepState/media have dumped so much poison on Trump that he can never be elected again.
I like DeSantis- I hope he is the candidate, however, he isn’t going to win the general election- he isn’t even going to come close to winning that election. When Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado turned blue after the 2004 election, the Republicans, as represented by the party in D.C., was locked out of the White House. Romney demonstrated the upper limit of that political reach in the 2012 election, and it hasn’t improved since then as Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona have slowly undergone the same transition that happened to Virginia after 2004.
Florida is still a toss-up state- so is Ohio- but Trump appealed to a certain class of white and hispanic voters that the GOP has not appealed to since the 1988 election, and it made states like Florida, Ohio, and Iowa appear to be solidly GOP all of a sudden, and competitive in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Without Trump on the ballot, I think Wisconsin and Pennsylvania go back to being reliably Democrat, just like they have every election since 1988. Perhaps Arizona and Georgia can be won again by a non-Trump candidate, but the demographics are getting worse every day, and both states are going to be reliably blue by the end of this decade if they aren’t already- see the Senate elections if you don’t believe me.
It’s very early and DeSantis has lots of time to turn this thing around and who knows what the future holds in terms of events that could totally change everything. He might want to think about the question that caught Teddy Kennedy flat-footed. I’d like to hear a real answer to why he’s running.
That being said, the gentry class can steer the conversation but we’re not the ones who elect the president, nor even nominate the candidate anymore. The constant refrain about “moderates” who will “never” vote for Trump is annoying and mainly appears to be an excuse to complain about Trump’s abrasiveness which is the same as it’s ever been. It’s part of why people like him. Also, the “suburban women”/moderates argument has been a standard GOP excuse for drift and ineffectiveness for years and everyone’s sick of it, including a lot of unfairly maligned suburban women. These people aren’t moderate, they’re brand conscious, a concern that should fade when confronted by reality.
The blue collars are not getting behind DeSantis (so far). They already have a candidate who says all or most all of the things that DeSantis is saying and is able to say it above the din of the media. Also, Trump is known. There can’t possibly be (credible) dirt on him at this point that we haven’t already heard about. Also, sorry but I see no evidence whatsoever that Trump has lost a step.
DeSantis backers are not making an effective case for him. They seem mainly inspired by attacking Trump and/or assuming/heavily implying that Trump backers are cultists, stupid, backward-looking, etc. Shaming people is not persuasive argument, especially when it’s the default approach that people have heard for years from the establishment. Until DeSantis backers come up with an argument FOR DESANTIS that makes sense, he’s going to keep getting beat.
To win the nomination, DeSantis really needs the field to be just himself and Trump. Right now, it is Trump, DeSantis, and a bunch of midgets. The midgets don’t individually add up to much, but they put a cap on DeSantis’ support as they all draw from the non-Trump voter base. I don’t even know why Haley and Scott are both in the race- I think the strategy was to divide the SC vote enough that Trump would be defeated in that primary (much like Kasich hoped to do in Ohio in 2016), but it has the opposite effect- it makes Trump’s position even stronger as it specifically weakens the main alternative candidate.
The default position on the left and the center-left (and in the media) is that any Republican who is nominated in the current environment (maybe including Trump!) will quickly be designated by pundits, reporters, and Democrats as “worse than Trump” and ultimately “worse than Hitler” by election day. It makes no difference that such accusations are mere name-calling and lack substance. These are the terms in which our politics are being framed and discussed. Remember how the gentlemanly GW Bush and Mitt Romney were slandered? McCain was a different kettle of fish, but he gave up on fighting to win so early that the opinion-makers didn’t have to go there. They stayed their hands at “McCain is no Obama, and have you taken a look at that hick Palin?”
The ace in the hole for the Dems in 2024 is still the abortion issue, and we can expect them to campaign on it at every level. In 2022 they did in Illinois, and they took over Michigan campaigning on the GOP’s reluctance to deal with the snap-back of a law from the 1930s that made abortion illegal. The Republicans have dropped the ball on getting to a reasonable position on abortion restrictions, and it is going to cost them dearly. DeSantis let Florida go from a reasonable compromise to a heart-beat law, effectively banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. Most of the women I know, even if they are opposed to abortion in general, want the decision whether to go forward with a pregnancy to be in their own hands. And they want the same for their daughters and grand-daughters. 2022 was a warning shot on many fronts, and Trump was only part of the problem.
We may be in for a rough ride.
from https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2017/08/more-adults-living-without-children.html
Karl Rove, who I still believe understands politics, made the point today that the polls are fool’s gold at this point.
He says the tell will be the polling in Iowa, New Hampshire, etc. In other words the early primary states, for the simple reason that people there are focused. People in the later states have not focused. So, when asked, the Trumpsters are all on board, while everyone else says “meh”.
BTW, I still think the GOP debates will be interesting as Trump persists in his habit of personal attacks and DeSantis counters with facts and figures.
Actually, I would not be surprised if Vivek Ramaswamy comes out of the debates in a good position. I am sure he will be prepared, and he is very articulate.
Sadly, I have forecast in emails to a select group of people who apparently don’t read them, that when all is said and done, Newsom will be the next President because Trump will splinter the GOP vote, and alienate the Independents. I fervently hope that I am wrong.
“One thing that has occurred since 2016 is that not only has the Democratic Party moved much more to the left (or revealed itself as having moved), but the GOP has moved much further to the right.”
From my perspective, the Dems moved to the left with Obama, but the Reps were loathe to respond to it lest they be called racists.
First the Tea Party was torpedoed, and then Trump was also, while attempting to slice through the Gordian knot the left had cleverly woven.
neo, a fairer left-right assessment would say that we have not “moved right” so much as we have struggled to resist being dragged left, and we are getting more indignantly noisy about it every day.
Ray Van Dune:
I am in complete disagreement with you. That’s not to say that the GOP has moved far enough to the right. But it has moved much further than before. The Freedom Caucus types are more powerful, and the leadership (McCarthy, not McConnell) is more receptive to the agenda of the right. You don’t have the “reaching across the aisle” stuff hardly at all anymore, except for one or two people such as Romney. Many of the most RINO-ish sorts have been defeated, compared to just a few years ago. and there is no Romney or McCain equivalent with any numbers to speak of in the 2024 presidential campaign on the right. But many Trump supporters would like to pretend that DeSantis is such a person.
the overton window on sanity, keeps getting moved left, the fact that there was no accountability for the domestic insurgency, that was waged in the summer of 2020, in fact this reserve army, is set to be deployed again, is concerning,
our resources have been critically depleted, by design, if we have to face a foreign power, our fuel our armaments, etc, there are suggestions while we chase phantom flying saucers, that there is real chinese malware in our networks
I scoffed at the Dems when they kept putting forth candidates further and further left. Maybe the GOP should start putting forth candidates further and further right and see what results they get?
so where can we split the difference with the democrats, they want to tear down not just the country, but the nature of reality, in terms of biology, chemistry, et al,
burn our traditions on a funeral pyre, drive us into famine and rolling blackouts,
Would it not be possible to pull one of the brightest from Trump’s former cabinet(s)? What about Rex Tillerson, or Gina Haspel? What does the R party have against “well-educated”? There are millions of people in America now who have graduated with higher ed degrees–many were always liberal, but I believe could now be persuaded to switch sides if the R candidate was bright, sharp, well informed and showed good courage had a real grasp of complexity and a couple of good strategies. Let’s see some real thinking at some of these debates. Not just “it’s my turn because”.
Miguel Cervantes
The possibilities are endless: Irish democracy, civil war, collapse, sectioning.
and yet they come to utterly ridiculous policy viewpoints, not only on cultural issues, but economic (fiscal and monetary policy) we can add the ridiculous destruction of effective and inexpensive energy,
DeSantis is not a political outsider and that’s a huge part of the explanation. He’s been on the cursus honorum for his nearly whole adult life: a Navy lawyer, Special Assistant US Attorney, House of Representatives, Governor.
Trump has held one office, but he is not a career politician and he is not a political insider; those who oppose his candidacy emphasize his inability to get the government or Congress to do anything.
I don’t say this to run down de Santis or to run down Trump, I’d cheerfully vote for either for the good it will do. But it’s important to understand what people think, and what a lot of people on the Right think is that professional politicians got us into this mess and are not going to get us out.
Of course, one single amateur, like Trump, can’t get us out either, no matter how highly placed. But the anti-de Santis people on the right think Trump’s heart is basically in the right place and they do not have that confidence about de Santis.
The problem with DeSantis, a killer conservative Florida governor, is that is he more like W in the sense of being more in line with the unelected United States government. What I mean is, DeSantis will be … allowed, yes, allowed … to go conservative on some or many issues just so long as he accepts his status as not a leader of the Executive.
Trump was and is an existential threat against that very government. Yes, he made appointment mistakes and many others, but really? where’s the talent pool? Yep, No Effin Where!
When a United States President can be taken down partially by impeachment from a LT Col (Vindman) and the bureaucracy that changed the forms to allow a nonplayer, Ciaramella, to be the “whistleblower” over issues that is just now finally being officially reported means there is no constitutional government. None. That is what’s called an inflection point.
By the way, at the time and many years later, you could not post anything with the name Ciaramella on Facebook.
Are we done? I assert almost. Can we come back? Not with DeSantis. He will continue it the march towards authoritarianism.
Miguel Cervantes – “they want to tear down not just the country, but the nature of reality, in terms of biology, chemistry, et al,”
Magic thinking. If they think it hard enough, it must be so.
Ace had a piece up today that was amusing (which he noted) in light of the arguments in favor of trans. The left is now telling people that you can’t change your race (unlike your sex). And one thing that Ace pointed out is that the article he was quoting from wasn’t talking about your genetic race. It was conflating race with *culture*, and in essence claiming that you can’t change your culture.
So your sex, which is something that up until now it’s been generally understood that you’re born with and “stuck” with for the entirety of your life, can be changed just because you feel different that day. But culture, which is basically a group of traditions and patterns of behavior that are grouped together, are immutable and cannot be changed at all.
Because DeSantis just isn’t Trump. Fixed it for ya, Texan.
@neo:You don’t have the “reaching across the aisle” stuff hardly at all anymore,
Yes you do, on the big appropriations bills and in the negotiations that move things through committees. This is what Congressmen and Senators are primarily there to do, spend our money on their friends. These instances of cooperation do not always show up in the roll call votes, because the roll call votes are the end point of the process, not the beginning, and it’s the job of both parties’ leadership in both Houses to know what those roll call votes are going to be before they happen.
Remember that bill that established the Federal task force on disinformation which interfered so heavily in the last few elections? It was written, sponsored, passed by Republicans and Democrats working together out of the media spotlight. The mechanism by which it was passed was by rolling it up into an appropriations bill. At that time the Republicans in the Senate controlled the committees that made this move possible. And almost all of them are still in the Senate today.
Where you’re not seeing “reaching across the aisle” so much is on culture war issues or things like the HR 1 voting rights power grab. Those items are in the media spotlight and the media chooses the narrative, and chooses to emphasize the conflict.
But on appropriations and the debt ceiling, yes, the parties are working together hand in glove to bring the bacon home and entrench their power against outsiders. And the media spends very little time on that, by design.
Granted my circle of friends and neighbors is a small sampling, but… In 2016 we all voted for Trump enthusiastically. In 2020 we were already getting Trump Fatigue but did our duty. Now the feeling is that Trump has maxed out at 40 % +/-. Some people I know are even angry at him for the losing/disappointing elections in 2018 and 2020 and 2022 (Dr Oz and Herschel Walker to name two.) and believe he has become a drag. Add his age to his recent track record and there is no energy to support him.
Two points. To those who say the country is lost unless, please refer to “The little boy who cried wolf”. I’ve been hearing that one since Clinton was running.
DeSantis seems to be a quick study. He saw what happened to the other candidates in 2016 when they didn’t fire back at Trump when he attacked them on a personal level. DeSantis can provoke Trump into something really outrageous without getting all the way down to his level. Trump’s temper is a liability for any challenger to tap into.
CNN article, FYI: The chance of Trump winning another term is very real.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/30/politics/trump-second-term-president-election-2024/index.html
Another ‘FYI’: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/07/31/tremors-abound-as-godzilla-trump-crushes-gop-field-in-first-new-york-times-poll-of-2024-campaign-season/
A) “DeSantis did a great deal to improve the voting rules in Florida. Most people don’t seem to be aware of this. The details can be found here. And yes, a governor has more control over a state in this regard, and Florida has a Republican legislature to greatly help.”
• 100% agree – and that is one of his most important accomplishments as Governor.
B) “I think the vast majority of people will be voting for whomever their party nominates; it’s that group in the middle that tends to decide things. But the days of nominating a politically moderate Republican in order to supposedly appeal to that group are over.”
• 100% agree with voting for party nominee, and nominating political moderates over.
• Strikes me that the groups that either do not usually vote, or do not usually vote Republican are now more important to a Republican victory than the “middle”.
C) “And it will not be restored by misrepresenting the strengths of other candidates or by ignoring Trump’s weaknesses, which have become more apparent…”
• If the above statement was written about DeSantis supporters and DeSantis, would the following statements be examples of Neo’ point?
• “…and the MSM – which wants Trump to be the nominee, as does the left, because they think he will be a weak candidate…”
• “However, many people think Trump is the most likely of the GOP candidates to win the general, although I heartily disagree. I think they are living in a fantasy world, pumped up by anger at what’s been done to Trump and the need to avenge it. ”
• “But some Trump supporters are part of such a cult, and I see it constantly.” ##
• “His boosters do not call him “likeable”; they call him smart.”
## = To be fair, of the blogs that have gone pro-DeSantis Neo is by far the most generous when it comes to positive statements/ points about Trump.
that guy:
Those quotes are my opinions, sincerely expressed. “I think” is a sign of an opinion. What a person has witnessed among people that person knows personally or has read as commenters is also just that – an observation about a certain cohort – rather than a statement of universal truths.
I have misrepresented nothing, I have merely stated my opinions and observations about things and people. Nor have I ignored anyone’s weaknesses, including both Trump AND DeSantis. I also have made it clear – explicitly – that I don’t actually know who would end up being the stronger candidate in the general. My personal opinion at this point is that it’s DeSantis. That opinion could change; it’s very early.
cb:
I explained in my previous post (about DeSantis and the perception that he’s “failed”) that many GOP primary voters are wedded to Trump at this point – and many aren’t even familiar with the other candidates, including DeSantis. They know Trump and like him after four years of his being president and then two more years of his being in the public eye, and so of course Trump is way out ahead at this point.
So, why would a poll indicating that be of much interest? If Trump is only winning by 54% at this point among GOP voters, that is of some interest, because I would have expected his lead to be far bigger. “Don’t know” – which Sundance ridicules – has a fairly big percentage as well. Sundance and Conservative Treehouse, by the way, have been instrumental right from the start of the campaign season in pounding on DeSantis and drumming up hatred for him among GOP voters by lying about him.
@ cb
I’ll add to your FYIs:
Until today, DeSantis had inexplicably not mentioned the Economy on his campaign website – he finally did so 12 hours ago.
rondesantis.com
cb:
That CNN link you offered is mostly about GOP primary polls, which doesn’t tell us anything about the general. As far as I can see, it only has one poll about the general which is basically a dead heat. Trump leads against Biden in some polls and trails in others, but they all are within the margin of error which makes them rather meaningless – and what’s more, all polls are pretty meaningless right now, especially national polls because it’s swing states that really matter. And considering the fact that a lot of people don’t know much about DeSantis, he is very close to Biden in the polls as well.
I don’t pay attention to polls at this point. But the press discusses them in order to shape perceptions.
Frederick:
Did you see that word “hardly” in there? Compared to the recent past, it hardly happens. Appropriations are where it will be happening for the foreseeable future, because of what you mention and because of the whole “shutdown” issue. McCarthy actually held tougher on a few things in that regard than his predecessors have.
@neo:Did you see that word “hardly” in there?
I did… and “hardly” but for appropriations is about like “other than that, did Mrs Lincoln enjoy the play”? Appropriations is the bulk of how Congress spends its time (and our money), and to except them is to swallow the rule.
McCarthy actually held tougher on a few things in that regard than his predecessors have.
And he let $1.2 trillion (and counting) of those things through a few short weeks ago. When push came to shove he made a deal with the Dems to make sure the cronies got paid. In this case, if McCarthy actually cared about restraining spending, he could have had the whole loaf and not settled for quarter of one.
The House Republicans have an absolute veto on all spending and legislation. They are so far unwilling to use it. A large fraction of the people who support Trump do so because they are noticing things like this and they don’t trust the professional politicians.
Electing Trump again I’m sure won’t in itself be the cure to these ills, but getting the Trump supporters behind someone else is going to require addressing this concern that they have, that the professional Republicans have folded when it counted.
“Until DeSantis backers come up with an argument FOR DESANTIS that makes sense, he’s going to keep getting beat.”
I think Neo made some strong points in favor of RDS.
(I am not presuming to imply that she is an RDS backer.)
“DeSantis backers are not making an effective case for him. They seem mainly inspired by attacking Trump and/or assuming/heavily implying that Trump backers are cultists, stupid, backward-looking, etc. Shaming people is not persuasive argument, especially when it’s the default approach that people have heard for years from the establishment. ”
THIS!!!^^^^^
there have been some minor flubs, but nothing to write home about, yes that stupid indian pattern was ill advised,
trump was hamstrung by ryan and co, in trying to design a sensible budget, the ones that came in the delassandro interregnum were bad, the lockdowns were worse,
I completely agree, and I have by now moved on from Trump and will support DeSantis. However, one topic which propelled Trump to victory and which DeSantis has so far more or less neglected is that The Donald explicitly stood up for “The Forgotten Man” in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc. — the people whose jobs have been wiped out by China and automation, leaving only Fentanyl addiction, crappy service jobs and dysfunctional families in their wake. Trump appealed to these folks at a time when most of the country — Republicans included — pretended, at best, that this problem didn’t exist. DeSantis had better heed this example if he wants to find support among the Trump base.
@Mark Alexis:The Donald explicitly stood up for “The Forgotten Man” in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc. — the people whose jobs have been wiped out…
The REAL “Forgotten Man” is not that man. The REAL “Forgotten Man” is the man who will be expropriated so that politicians can buy votes by “helping”.
As soon as A observes something which seems to him wrong, from which X is suffering, A talks it over with B, and A and B then propose to get a law passed to remedy the evil and help X. Their law always proposes to determine what C shall do for X, or, in better case, what A, B, and C shall do for X… What I want to do is to look up C. I want to show you what manner of man he is. I call him the Forgotten Man. Perhaps the appellation is not strictly correct. He is the man who never is thought of. He is the victim of the reformer, social speculator and philanthropist, and I hope to show you before I get through that he deserves your notice both for his character and for the many burdens which are laid upon him. He works, he votes, generally he prays—but he always pays…”
Frederick: Are you sure we’re not talking about the same Man?
I was listening to a Jordan Peterson podcast. He brought up that for social animals the alpha male is often not the strongest, but the best at managing relationships with reciprocity. We have had a huge lack of reciprocity since GHWB. The right keeps giving, but never getting.
In nature, this lasts until a coalition of lower status members violently end the rule of the selfish alpha.
Moderate Republicans (McCain, Romney) don’t win. Conservative Republicans (Ted Cruz, Duncan Hunter, Bob Dornan, Malcolm Forbes and a host of others) don’t win and don’t often get the nomination. To win a candidate needs something extra, a populist — or at least popular — appeal. Reagan had it. Trump had it. Voters want somebody who they can believe isn’t entirely in the pocket of big government and big business, somebody who speaks to their concerns and will do something about them (Reagan, to be sure, wasn’t much of a populist when it came to big business, but that was another time).
The concern with DeSantis is first of all that he doesn’t have that charisma and that appeal to ordinary voters. There’s also the worry that he’s too much an establishment candidate. Running to the right of Trump on social issues doesn’t lesson the worry. Other concerns are that as a “policy wonk” he’ll get too caught up in the minutia of government, or that as an ideological culture warrior he’ll ignore the bread and butter issues.
The left side of the culture war is so insane that they ought to be defeated, but I don’t think those cultural conflicts are the issues people vote on. I’m only going to vote for a candidate who’s sane on those issues, but my priority would be somebody who will bring the country back economically (at a more fundamental level, not just high stock prices and big corporate profits). If I vote in the primary, it may be for Ramaswami (Trump isn’t going to change), but it helps to recognize that politics and government aren’t kind to Boy Wonders and Wonder Boys. They get eaten up. DeSantis may be an example.
“To those who say the country is lost unless, please refer to “The little boy who cried wolf”. I’ve been hearing that one since Clinton was running.”
Clintons were corrupt and criminal. But they never weaponized the government like the Gestapo. The Clintons effort to steal the 2000 election came up just short.
The Gestapo units are real and the election steals far worse. Anyone who hasn’t noticed the difference needs to get their meds changed.
@Stan The Clintons lost almost every national election. They were bailed out by Perot. Then Dolorous Dole, the forefather of Romney and McCain (failure theatre). And, finally, and most disastrously, 2016. As good as his reputation for politics is, WJC barely squeaked by, time after time, and came up short in the 2 defining elections of at least 1 generation, perhaps 2 (2000, 2016).
Kris:
Bill Clinton won his elections. In 1992, Clinton got 43% to Bush’s 37%, and Perot got 19%, but all analyses of the Perot vote that I’ve ever read – and I’ve read quite a few – say that Perot pulled votes evenly from Clinton and Bush. In 1996, Clinton got 49.2% to Dole’s 40,7%, and Perot 8.4% – also drawing from both. Being “bailed out” by “dolorous Dole” equals losing an election.
Bill Clinton was popular at the time. Hillary hasn’t been popular. They are a political team but very different in their skills and personalities.
Yes, polls have shown that Perot drew equally from both candidates, but 1) national polls don’t reflect how the key swing states would have voted, and 2) the two-on-one of Clinton and Perot may have shaken a lot of voters who would have chosen Bush loose, and made them think Bush was worse than he was. So yes, Clinton might have (or probably would have) won the election without Perot, but it’s still something people will argue about. Recent history, though, makes people think that Clinton, and Carter before him, weren’t as popular in the South the first time they ran. It’s now hard to believe that Clinton could have won West Virginia and Kentucky, but times were different then.
Republicans moved further to the right in the 1990s. I don’t think that they’ve moved right since 2016. Republicans have been rethinking what “conservatism” really means. Politicians and positions that looked like far-right bomb throwers and bomb throwing earlier now seem like part of the Uniparty. MAGA has addressed issues that weren’t priorities for the DC GOP. The Democrats have moved so far to the left that Republicans look more combative if they just stick to their old positions. Polarization is deeper now, and animosity is greater, but I doubt it’s because Republicans have moved to the right.
stan sees Gestapo. Quite the perspective, but he knows “all.” Is stan a Soverign Citizen?