Prigozhin of the Wagner mercenary group, has had a megaphone of complaints about the war for some time now. Word now comes is that his tracks in Russia are being erased from the internet in Russia, as I write.
It seems that Yevgeny Prigozhin is hoping to have had his critique heard, that his views are shared within the military, and thus hopes to split the loyalty of the military, against Putin.
Don’t know either. Someone starting a rumor hoping Putin will believe and act on it… ?
On unthreaded, Cornflour contributed this:
Kamil Galeev’s Twitter thread always has something interesting to say.
Here’s his prediction:
“What is happening in Russia? The mutiny is real. It is also unlikely to succeed.
Most probable outcome is:
1. The mutiny fails
2. The regime stands (for a few months)
3. Upon its suppression, regime becomes increasingly dysfunctional -> falls” https://tinyurl.com/2ejhcwrd
Yes. And will Prigozhin be arrested or exiled?
“The silence of the Russian state [on these events] is extraodinary and concerning,” says Vlad Vexler via his YouTube live feed, from London. (I believe he’s in self-imposed exile from Russia.) This strikes me as likely true.
Kamil Galeev via Twitter:
@kamilkazani
·13m
“Unless something radical happens in the next 12 hours, I bet on the regime surviving through this incident. Control over Moscow is the only thing that matters, and it is unlikely the mutineers will be able to assume it by this point. Too far [away]
Again, if nothing radical happens.”
For example, if the military splits.
Vlcad Vexler adds that this circumstance “finds Russia at its most unstable since the 1990s.”
As long as this regime uncertainty continues, the more this will weaken Putin’s War in Ukraine.
ANOTHER crack in Putin’s power appears, as Belorussian dictator Lukashenko appears to have gone airborne, as this Tweet from the opposition suggests:
“LUKASHENKO ??ESCAPING?
Business jet of Belarussian Dictator Lukashenko’s family took off from Minsk at 00:01.
– Belarusian opposition media
[Radar map in original]”
Peter Zeihan says:
____________________________
…Russia views its position as existential (because it is). The only path to survival is expanding and conquering the necessary geographical barriers.
This war has to end with one side being completely defeated. Even if the Ukrainians can humiliate Putin to the point that revolutions break out in Moscow and they put a democratic government in power, the Russians wouldn’t be able to climb out of the hole they’ve dug. The Russians are in this thing until the end. And their demise is coming this century. The only question is will it be in a few years or decades?
As for Putin, it doesn’t really matter if he goes bye-bye. There are scores [of others] within Russia’s top rungs ready to see this to the end. Remember: this war isn’t about one man’s ego, but rather Russia’s survival strategy.
I continue to find Peter Zeihan persuasive, except on American politics, but I’m not a True Believer. I am tracking his predictions to see how they pan out.
Rostov on the Don, where Prigozhan is headed, controls the supply line from Russia into occupied southern Ukraine. If he can occupy that city, he’ll have a lot of leverage. How that shakes out will determine how negotiations between Russian factions develop.
That said, I don’t think Prigozhan is trying to overthrow Putin, I think he is trying to topple the Generals and take control of the army.
Sorry to hijack this thread, but I think that it is very important for as many people as possible to see this recent, short, but very hard-hitting presentation on the origins of COVID by Dr. David Martin, Ph.D. presented at the European Union’s Third International Covid Summit, in which he presents a lot of information–all of which he says he has documented–that I had never heard before, and in which he contends that, “Covid-19 was an act of biological warfare perpetrated on the human race.” *
Apparently lots of controversy about him, judging from a cursory search for his name coupled with Covid, with lots of mainstream sources alleging that he is, FWIW, spreading “misinformation” about Covid.
Seems to me that in the intense propaganda war over COVID, a lot of people who were charged with and who were often penalized in various ways by various authorities and MSM outlets, because they were supposedly “spreading misinformation about Covid” turned out to have been right about it.
I read this first on “Institute for the Study of War” blog. I find it a useful blog on many subjects. I think Prigozhan is miscalculated and Putin will crush him. But it certainly helps Ukraine.
The most likely thing that has happened is that Prighozin overstepped himself and was ordered arrested. I think he is on the run with a small group of men and is releasing his videos as a form of covering fire. All the videos I surveyed tonight claiming a Wagner move on Rostov look like frauds to my eyes- almost all of them have pedestrians moving around the tanks and armored carriers like it is nothing new, and probably isn’t anything new.
My best guess is that Prighozin is captured by the Russians or escapes to Ukraine or one of the other countries bordering southern Russia, maybe even Turkey.
Well, Putin better hope those Wagner guys are not wearing buffalo headdresses! Then he’d have to call for The Big Guy to help him put them in the gulag!
So it appears that Wagner and the Russian military have traded headquarters, with the FSB raiding the Wagner headquarters in St. Petersburg, and Wagner storming the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) in Rostov-on-Don. The SMD is the district in charge of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, and Rostov-on-Don is the main logistics hub supplying Russian forces in Ukraine.
And now it is claimed that Wagner has control of all military facilities in both Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, including the airfields.
I don’t know about you, but I think these events just might qualify as “interesting times.”
Some 18 hours into this. It has moved from a possibile coup to civil war, where Russians are killing Russians.
How do I know? AgendaFreeTV on Youtube airs video from Telegram. Telegram is Progozhin’s favored outlet. There are reposts of Telegram outages of crashes in parts of Russia.
Whether these are from heavy use or possibly cyberwarfare trying to shut down Wagner remains to he seen.
Currently, Wagner group has taken control of Rostov in the Don. This is both a control center for Russia’s war in Ukraine and a key supply link for resupply.
In a speech this morning, Putin declares his intention to take it back.
Lukashenko’s plane from Minsk landed in Turkey. And in Moscow, one observer claims most smaller private jets are not declaring a destination, unless it is Turkey, which is the current favorite.
Are the oligarchs and well-connected abandoning a sinking ship? Or else, advancing their neutral interests, awaiting to see what happens next.
People are neutral in public because they don’t want to be on the losing side. Access to power advances survival.
Meanwhile, sources from Twitter and Telegram compiled say that the current count in the civil war are one plane and 5 military helicopters (although this may be an overcount.
What is certain is that there are firefights in Vonaresz — a mid-point between Rostov to the South and Moscow to the North.
And the Wagner Group has effective air defense and has been using it there. Russian air has tried attacking Wagner forces.
Russia is highly centralized around Moscow. And Putin has commanded Russian military in cities North of Moscow to come there.
Yes, indeed. These developments are surprising. But fortuitous.
Fortune favors the bold, and Progozhin has declared carpe diem. Power is as important as perception. And that means he must take control there, in Moscow. Like Pompey versus Pompey over Rome.
The real problem for us is that in such chaos in Russia, who is in charge of the nukes? This has all the potential for the flashpoint of nuclear annihilation.
One minute private video – apparently shared via RT or Russia Today, if you catch the final graphic — shows this:
“The person recording this video comments the Wagner PMC convoy keeps moving like this past her for more than 30 minutes already. In Voronezh, toward Moscow.“ https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672559033906270213
Mobile and competent will defeat huge but slow, everytime.
HERE’s a nice 10 minute backgrounder on events earlier today, with video clips a good maps to explain:
Let us hope Prigozhin fails. He is a war hawk, and has been agitating for a major escalation of the war. Putin is the moderate in all this. A year ago he had negotiated a cease fire that would have implemented the Minsk agreements and kept the Donbas in Ukraine. Boris Johnson was sent to Kiev to squelch that, and did so.
There is a nationalistic faction in the Russian government that wants to reestablish the Tsarist empire. That means annexation of Belarus (partly done now), Ukraine, the Baltic states, most of Poland, and Finland.
Medvedev has moved from the Atlanticist wing to the Nationalist/Eurasian wing. He would be the likely successor to Putin, and a real problem for the West.
Elon Musk on Twitter declares the best coverage of the coup by Mario Nawfal.
He’s hosting a livecast via Twitter with a group of informed folks. It is excellent and fack filled.
Chechin Rebels getting involved?
Numbers of vehicles in the Wagner column heading North are 400 vehicles.
One opines that thus effort is much larger than the 25,000 attributed to Wagner Group. There are reports that large parts Russian Military has joined with Wagner forces.
Rostov is said to base one-quarter of the entire Army.
These next 6 hours look to be decisive in the outcome.
bob sykes writes “He is a war hawk, and has been agitating for a major escalation of the war.” No. He’s said something to the contrary.
Yesterday, an Institute for War Studies report I found vis Instapundit 8:30AM, indicates that Putin’s deception for the Ukraine war is a major cause of his rebellion.
Wagner Group is now in Moscow Oblast, 2 hours from the city. Video, now. Confidence? “likely true.”
More regular Army defections indicated. The Russian military is supporting Wagner.
Peter Zeihan: “…Russia views its position as existential (because it is). The only path to survival is expanding and conquering the necessary geographical barriers.”
Makes no sense to me. Who is going to invade Russia? Germany? Finland?
Nothing ‘existential’ about this, except Putin’s narrow sense of himself and of Russia’s possibilities.
DailyMail: Rumours circle that Putin has fled Moscow and flown north, Wagner boasts ‘Soon we will have a new president’ as they head to the Russian capital and flights from the city sell out
I have been surfing other places for information, and I’d like to say that Neo and her commenters are about the most well-informed group around.
No matter how insane one may think Democrats, they are always crazier in reality. It seems to be established fact for liberals on Twitter that Trump, Tucker Carlson and the GOP love Putin, are getting paid by Putin, and will be rendered ineffective if Putin falls.
Hatred on display. Intense, bizarre, completely unhinged from reality.
Re: Wagner vs Putin
Do not be surprised if it’s all Russian disinformation or propaganda. The Russians are the world’s best at this.
A year ago he had negotiated a cease fire that would have implemented the Minsk agreements and kept the Donbas in Ukraine. Boris Johnson was sent to Kiev to squelch that, and did so.
==
This is a fantasy.
== Let us hope Prigozhin fails. He is a war hawk, and has been agitating for a major escalation of the war.
==
Banging your head against the wall harder will do you a world of good.
== Medvedev has moved from the Atlanticist wing to the Nationalist/Eurasian wing. He would be the likely successor to Putin, and a real problem for the West.
==
I’m sure you’ll be spot on.
I continue to find Peter Zeihan persuasive,
==
Buy my bridge.
Steve McIntyre retweet says Putin and Prig had a long meeting a week ago about extending the contract for Wagner mercs. Putin insisted that they sign with the Russian military. They refused. Contract not renewed. And here we are.
Sounds plausible.
Sorry to hijack this thread, but I think that it is very important for as many people as possible to see this recent, short, but very hard-hitting presentation on the origins of COVID by Dr. David Martin, Ph.D. presented at the European Union’s Third International Covid Summit, in which he presents a lot of information–all of which he says he has documented–that I had never heard before, and in which he contends that, “Covid-19 was an act of biological warfare perpetrated on the human race.” *
==
Act now before the aliens kidnap David E. Martin, PhD. Also, buy the financial products he’s pushing:
For Russia, NATO expansion may be an “existential threat,” but it doesn’t follow that “only path to survival is expanding.” Would this war have happened when it did if relations between NATO and Russia hadn’t been deteriorating for years?
If the “war has to end with one side being completely defeated,” beware of what the side with nuclear weapons would do if faced with complete defeat. With Russia, as with Germany a century ago, beware of countries that feel that they have been disgraced and humiliated.
There is a nationalistic faction in the Russian government that wants to reestablish the Tsarist empire. That means annexation of Belarus (partly done now), Ukraine, the Baltic states, most of Poland, and Finland.
I suspect it’s more a feeling that the three Orthodox and Slavic Russias – Great Russia (Russia), Little Russia (Ukraine), White Russia (Belarus) – ought to be under one government. That was the old, pre-Petrine tsarist empire before the expansion into new territories. Of course, if that is achieved there is a temptation to expand further, as well as the possibility of creating satellite states around Russia, but I’d be surprised if serious Russian policy makers expect or are planning to digest Finland.
The tsarist empire had cossacks living on its borders as a kind of paramilitary force. Now we find paramilitaries again in Russia and Ukraine, both before and after the Russian invasion, and playing a key role in events.
@Stan
No matter how insane one may think Democrats, they are always crazier in reality. It seems to be established fact for liberals on Twitter that Trump, Tucker Carlson and the GOP love Putin, are getting paid by Putin, and will be rendered ineffective if Putin falls.
Hatred on display. Intense, bizarre, completely unhinged from reality.
Dear God. Like I expected the “Trump loves Putin” propaganda. But this bullshit makes it sound like they are actually shilling for Prig the Neo-Nazi or at least Neo-Nazi-Employing War Hawk just to “Own the Cons.”
Longtime readers of this blog should know my ranting and raving on the Kremlin, Putin, Ukraine, and so on. So I hope it means something when I say that in this particular tussle Putin *MIGHT* be the lesser evil, at least between himself and Prigo.
I hope this gives the Ukrainians some leeway on the front and might help some better/less deranged elements in Russia get in, but hope springs eternal while doom always lurks in Current Year. And that’s before we get into what passes for our governance at home and elsewhere.
And they all lived happily ever after?
Belarusian president held talks with Prigozhin today. Lukashenko says that Prigozhin has agreed to “stop the movement of armed persons on the territory of Russia and to take further steps to deescalate.”
I just hope Joe Biden has the good sense to stay at his beach house, relax and enjoy the ocean view, and keep his yap shut.
Admittedly, the words “Biden” and “good sense” are seldom found in proximity.
I don’t see how, after what has passed, Prigozhin or his troops can believe any “security guarantees,” any more than can Putin and his close defenders.
It seems to me that this situation, whatever the outcome, seriously weakens Russia in Ukraine and in general.
Turtler on Putin. He might be the lesser evil.
True. But it is difficult to know, to given his war of choice in Ukraine, rationalized as existentially necessary.
What Prigozhin, however, seems more honest than Putin. And possibly minutes just.
And it is worth recalling that Putin’s 20 years in power has been maintained by a group of oligarchs (who Putin has systematically selected for loyalty), Prigozhin among them.
What happens when the more brutal oligarch arrives at the top of the heap?
We could be there in the next day, finding out. But bear in mind that Wagner is a mercenary outfit, and they want to profit.
And to do that, they have to survive long enough to enjoy some sort of security.
I believe that the quest for more security is why Prigozhin aims at Moscow now.
From about two hours ago, here are Kamil Galeev’s latest tweets on what’s going on in Russia. I promise not to keep doing this. Anybody else who’s interested can go to his Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/kamilkazani). I’ve also added a long postscript. Apologies to all, if I’ve exceeded the acceptable length for a blog comment.
“Discussing the political developments in Russia as ‘the fall of Putin’s regime’ is spoiling the frame. It is not about the fall of Putin. It is about a demise of the entire assabiyah. The assabiyah evolved from 1917 to 2023 largely uninterruptedly. There was no major replacement. And by now it is really old. Putin is the third generation. Kirienko is the fourth. And most likely, there will be no fifth one. What awaits Russia is the radical replacement of elites.
Post-1917 replacement of elites was limited in scale. Post-1953, it was largely cosmetic. The 1990s to a significant extent were just the Komsomol leadership changing a sign on their office door: ‘community-owned’ NTTM -> private owned AMK. Same people, different circumstances.
It is highly probable that in the coming years we will see a radical replacement of the ruling classes far exceeding anything we saw in the 1990s. The 1990s did not interrupt the continuity of the Soviet era elites. But the 2020s most probably will.”
POSTSCRIPT:
In his tweets, Galeev repeatedly invoked the concept of assabiyah, which was unknown to me, so I looked it up. Aziz Al-Azmeh offers a long definition of “assabiyah” in his discussion of Ibn Khaldun’s book of universal history “The Muqaddimah,” published in 1337 (https://tinyurl.com/4kvfv8ec):
“Of course, of course. Assabiyah is quite often translated as corporate solidarity or the solidarity of a group, usually understood as a sentiment. Of course, assabiyah is a sentiment but assabiyah also designates a power group, a power group which is welded by an internal cohesion and internal loyalties. So assabiyah, is, in essence, as he says, comparable to a genealogical relationship to a family, it doesn’t have to be an actual family, but it acts as if or it functions as if it were a family. That is what al assabiyah is. So, the power of a state is actually obtained by al assabiyah, which then manages to overpower others and come on top and then found a dynasty. Once the dynasty is founded, then another type of process enters. There’s a phase of prosperity, and expansion, followed by longer phase of decline and obsolescence and the replacement of one power group by another.”
“So assabiyah is really a power group, not simply a sense of solidarity. It’s a power group, which is also internally animated by a feeling of solidarity, which is analogous to the solidarity among members of a family. That is how it functions. Now, there is empirical purchase to this, very clearly empirical purchase to this, and many of the developments of the long passages in the book, which talks about assabiyah, and the way it acts in a state, and founds the state and transforms itself in the process of rule are sustained by very clear reference to empirical material. Material things that he had seen and witnessed himself and what the histories that he read had taught him about the way in which states had been founded.”
Hope springs eternal, but what are the realistic chances of whatever follows Putin being better?
==
Khruschev replaces Stalin (better);
Brezhnev / Kosygin replaces Khruschev (ambiguous, perhaps marginally worse).
[interregnum following Brezhnev / Kosygin] (same)
Gorbachev follows the interregnum (better)
Yeltsin replaces Gorbachev (ambivalent)
Putin replaces Yeltsin (ambivalent).
It is highly probable that in the coming years we will see a radical replacement of the ruling classes far exceeding anything we saw in the 1990s. The 1990s did not interrupt the continuity of the Soviet era elites. But the 2020s most probably will
==
Tell him to let go of your leg.
Art Deco said “Tell him to let go of your leg.”
Art:
You might be right. As I’ve said, I don’t know much about Russian history or politics. After the Ukraine invasion, I started reading Galeev’s Twitter feed because I found it interesting. So much else written on the subject struck me as thin partisanship.
If you’d care to expand on your leg-pulling comment, I’d happily take a look.
13 minutes weren’t the existential threat to Vlad after all?
Vlad didn’t murder quite enough oligarchs, potential rivals, it seems.
If you’d care to expand on your leg-pulling comment, I’d happily take a look.
==
Purveyors of political science are terrible at forecasting, at least in situations where quantitative methods are not applied (and you can see failures there). Here he’s telling you that cataclysmic events have scant effect in the composition of ‘elites’ but we’re about to see the house cleaning you didn’t see in 1917. You don’t need to have a granular knowledge of Russian history to figure he’s blowing smoke at you.
Civil War in Ruzzia Prygozhyn is Going to to Moscow Live Stream – Denys Davydov
I break for just two plus hours. And the coup is off! Apparently, Lukashenko has been negotiating with Prigozhan. Putin has accepted an agreement to grant a full pardon to him and the Wagner Group. Troops in Rostov and elsewhere are returning to their bases.
But what does Prigozhan gain? He has always been under the MoD. Apparently, that’s off. And he has gained some elevated status, militarily. Including the demotion of the generals he’s long-butted heads with.
Surely, there is more fallout to come from this flash fire coup. What that is leaves much to speculate on. From Zerohedge,
“Update(1325ET): An emerging Russian state media headline: Prigozhin Agrees to Stop PMC Wagner March, Start De-Escalation After Lukashenko’s Mediation…
“Belarusian president held talks with Prigozhin today. Lukashenko says that Prigozhin has agreed to ‘stop the movement of armed persons on the territory of Russia and to take further steps to deescalate.’
“Prigozhin has reportedly accepted Lukashenka’s proposal to stop the movement of PMC Wagner, according to Russian state media TASS. Reuters is also reporting the Kremlin-backed statements. Did we just witness a 22-hour coup? All over now?…
According to RT’s reporting:
“Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Saturday that he had arranged a deal whereby Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for ‘security guarantees’ for his fighters.
‘Evgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed men of Wagner in Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tension,’ read a statement from Lukashenko’s office.”
“Do not be surprised if it’s all Russian disinformation or propaganda. ”
Yes, 51 top US intelligence officials have assured me it has all the earmarks.
Art:
I can’t disagree with your comment about the terrible forecasting record of political scientists.
But to be fair, Galeev compared the 1990’s to what we may see in the 2020’s. His tweet didn’t compare the 2020’s to 1917. He did, however, say “[t]he assabiyah evolved from 1917 to 2023 largely uninterruptedly.” I agree that sounds like an extreme statement.
I can’t remember whether Galeev has addressed the role of demographic changes, but I think that many observers have said that demography will affect changes in the empire’s elite composition. Will the rest of the 2020’s mark an historical break in the composition of the Russian empire’s elite? I guess we’ll soon see.
“It is not about the fall of Putin. It is about a demise of the entire assabiyah. The assabiyah evolved from 1917 to 2023 largely uninterruptedly.”
It certainly isn’t clear yet whether this is going to be such a major turning point. However it is true that though Putin may no longer be an ideological communist he is entirely a product of the Soviet system. He was an officer in KGB for 15 years.
bob sykes: “That means annexation of Belarus (partly done now)”
Has Russia actually annexed territory from Belarus? The Belarusian government, ie Lukashenko, is aligned with Moscow, that has been true pretty much since the breakup of the Soviet Union.
“[Medvedev] would be the likely successor to Putin and a real problem for the West”
My impression of Medvedev is that he is a weaker figure than Putin, admittedly based on scant evidence. It would look more to me like the final days of the Soviet Union, supporting the “demise of the assabiyah” theory. But Russia is always full of surprises.
It sure looks like Prigozhan held a winning hand but folded – like a cheap suit. Did the FSB hold the Aces? Like, have his relatives held hostage? The man needed an advocate or lawyer to negotiate for him, it seems.
One COMMENTER at Instapundit has solid insight from history. Namely, precedent: “Sort of reminiscent of the 1991 Soviet coup, for those old enough to remember. Gorbachev was placed under house arrest, but two days later everybody said, ‘never mind’ and let’s just pretend this never happened.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_d%27état_attempt
True enough! Even if crazier now.
Another ripe COMMENT from Indy….
Crab Girdles
10 hours ago
“Long ago and far away, I lived in a banana republic. Over 7 years we had 5 governments, only one of them elected, and that one didn’t last long. In a tiny undeveloped country, if the coup-makers seize the head of state’s residence, the radio station, and the main barracks, they’re pretty much in control of the country. (Frederick Forsythe’s Dogs of War didn’t simplify things as much as one might think.)
“Since then I’ve always assumed that such a coup couldn’t scale up to a large country. Today’s news out of Russia suggests I was mistaken, because the events sound eerily familiar.“
Sage observers have said that traditional, necessary things to make a coup succeed were absent here. Now I’m not sure this thesis fully fly’s — events were proceeding too fast and furiously to know otherwise.
But one requirement leaps out at me: Prigozhan had not controlled the media, and didn’t seem even bent towards doing so.
He has been called “Putin’s chef” because he made his early money as a caterer. That early in career life fact screams “out of my depth.” But so does running a ruthless mercenary army…so?
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A CLEAN NINE PARGRAPH ACCOUNT from Just The News:
“ Russia’s mercenary leader abandons war front, Moscow orders arrest”
https://justthenews.com/world/europe/russias-mercenary-leader-declares-war-kremlin-moscow-orders-arrest
Prigozhin of the Wagner mercenary group, has had a megaphone of complaints about the war for some time now. Word now comes is that his tracks in Russia are being erased from the internet in Russia, as I write.
It seems that Yevgeny Prigozhin is hoping to have had his critique heard, that his views are shared within the military, and thus hopes to split the loyalty of the military, against Putin.
On this, the hours and days to come will turn.
(Thank you, Neo – for adding this new thread.)
Kate posted this Daily Mail link elsewhere. It’s the best lengthy piece I’ve read yet.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12228381/Wagner-mercenaries-killed-RUSSIAN-missile-strikes.html
Don’t know either. Someone starting a rumor hoping Putin will believe and act on it… ?
On unthreaded, Cornflour contributed this:
Kamil Galeev’s Twitter thread always has something interesting to say.
Here’s his prediction:
“What is happening in Russia? The mutiny is real. It is also unlikely to succeed.
Most probable outcome is:
1. The mutiny fails
2. The regime stands (for a few months)
3. Upon its suppression, regime becomes increasingly dysfunctional -> falls”
https://tinyurl.com/2ejhcwrd
Yes. And will Prigozhin be arrested or exiled?
“The silence of the Russian state [on these events] is extraodinary and concerning,” says Vlad Vexler via his YouTube live feed, from London. (I believe he’s in self-imposed exile from Russia.) This strikes me as likely true.
Kamil Galeev via Twitter:
@kamilkazani
·13m
“Unless something radical happens in the next 12 hours, I bet on the regime surviving through this incident. Control over Moscow is the only thing that matters, and it is unlikely the mutineers will be able to assume it by this point. Too far [away]
Again, if nothing radical happens.”
For example, if the military splits.
Vlcad Vexler adds that this circumstance “finds Russia at its most unstable since the 1990s.”
Time of Troubles.
As long as this regime uncertainty continues, the more this will weaken Putin’s War in Ukraine.
ANOTHER crack in Putin’s power appears, as Belorussian dictator Lukashenko appears to have gone airborne, as this Tweet from the opposition suggests:
“LUKASHENKO ??ESCAPING?
Business jet of Belarussian Dictator Lukashenko’s family took off from Minsk at 00:01.
– Belarusian opposition media
[Radar map in original]”
Peter Zeihan says:
____________________________
…Russia views its position as existential (because it is). The only path to survival is expanding and conquering the necessary geographical barriers.
This war has to end with one side being completely defeated. Even if the Ukrainians can humiliate Putin to the point that revolutions break out in Moscow and they put a democratic government in power, the Russians wouldn’t be able to climb out of the hole they’ve dug. The Russians are in this thing until the end. And their demise is coming this century. The only question is will it be in a few years or decades?
As for Putin, it doesn’t really matter if he goes bye-bye. There are scores [of others] within Russia’s top rungs ready to see this to the end. Remember: this war isn’t about one man’s ego, but rather Russia’s survival strategy.
–Peter Zeihan, “Will Putin ‘Disappear’ and Updates on Russian Demographics?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXHZ0IH2rOk
____________________________
I continue to find Peter Zeihan persuasive, except on American politics, but I’m not a True Believer. I am tracking his predictions to see how they pan out.
Rostov on the Don, where Prigozhan is headed, controls the supply line from Russia into occupied southern Ukraine. If he can occupy that city, he’ll have a lot of leverage. How that shakes out will determine how negotiations between Russian factions develop.
That said, I don’t think Prigozhan is trying to overthrow Putin, I think he is trying to topple the Generals and take control of the army.
Sorry to hijack this thread, but I think that it is very important for as many people as possible to see this recent, short, but very hard-hitting presentation on the origins of COVID by Dr. David Martin, Ph.D. presented at the European Union’s Third International Covid Summit, in which he presents a lot of information–all of which he says he has documented–that I had never heard before, and in which he contends that, “Covid-19 was an act of biological warfare perpetrated on the human race.” *
Apparently lots of controversy about him, judging from a cursory search for his name coupled with Covid, with lots of mainstream sources alleging that he is, FWIW, spreading “misinformation” about Covid.
Seems to me that in the intense propaganda war over COVID, a lot of people who were charged with and who were often penalized in various ways by various authorities and MSM outlets, because they were supposedly “spreading misinformation about Covid” turned out to have been right about it.
* See https://rumble.com/v2m0enk-dr-david-martin-european-parliament-international-covid-summit-iii-5-3-23.html
Pssst…
Vlad: “Joe, how bad do you need a stunning victory right now?”
Joe: “Real bad. How about you?”
Vlad: “Real bad, too. I have an idea, Joe.”
Joe: “I’m all ears, whatever that means!”
Constant updates on the situation at
https://citizenfreepress.com/
Sorry to hijack this thread…
Snow on Pine:
Then I suggest putting it in “Open Thread.”
I read this first on “Institute for the Study of War” blog. I find it a useful blog on many subjects. I think Prigozhan is miscalculated and Putin will crush him. But it certainly helps Ukraine.
The most likely thing that has happened is that Prighozin overstepped himself and was ordered arrested. I think he is on the run with a small group of men and is releasing his videos as a form of covering fire. All the videos I surveyed tonight claiming a Wagner move on Rostov look like frauds to my eyes- almost all of them have pedestrians moving around the tanks and armored carriers like it is nothing new, and probably isn’t anything new.
My best guess is that Prighozin is captured by the Russians or escapes to Ukraine or one of the other countries bordering southern Russia, maybe even Turkey.
Well, Putin better hope those Wagner guys are not wearing buffalo headdresses! Then he’d have to call for The Big Guy to help him put them in the gulag!
Fog of civil war in Russia?
Reporting From Ukraine
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fmITp1Kz1yU
So it appears that Wagner and the Russian military have traded headquarters, with the FSB raiding the Wagner headquarters in St. Petersburg, and Wagner storming the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) in Rostov-on-Don. The SMD is the district in charge of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, and Rostov-on-Don is the main logistics hub supplying Russian forces in Ukraine.
And now it is claimed that Wagner has control of all military facilities in both Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, including the airfields.
I don’t know about you, but I think these events just might qualify as “interesting times.”
Some 18 hours into this. It has moved from a possibile coup to civil war, where Russians are killing Russians.
How do I know? AgendaFreeTV on Youtube airs video from Telegram. Telegram is Progozhin’s favored outlet. There are reposts of Telegram outages of crashes in parts of Russia.
Whether these are from heavy use or possibly cyberwarfare trying to shut down Wagner remains to he seen.
Currently, Wagner group has taken control of Rostov in the Don. This is both a control center for Russia’s war in Ukraine and a key supply link for resupply.
In a speech this morning, Putin declares his intention to take it back.
Lukashenko’s plane from Minsk landed in Turkey. And in Moscow, one observer claims most smaller private jets are not declaring a destination, unless it is Turkey, which is the current favorite.
Are the oligarchs and well-connected abandoning a sinking ship? Or else, advancing their neutral interests, awaiting to see what happens next.
People are neutral in public because they don’t want to be on the losing side. Access to power advances survival.
Meanwhile, sources from Twitter and Telegram compiled say that the current count in the civil war are one plane and 5 military helicopters (although this may be an overcount.
What is certain is that there are firefights in Vonaresz — a mid-point between Rostov to the South and Moscow to the North.
And the Wagner Group has effective air defense and has been using it there. Russian air has tried attacking Wagner forces.
Russia is highly centralized around Moscow. And Putin has commanded Russian military in cities North of Moscow to come there.
Yes, indeed. These developments are surprising. But fortuitous.
Fortune favors the bold, and Progozhin has declared carpe diem. Power is as important as perception. And that means he must take control there, in Moscow. Like Pompey versus Pompey over Rome.
The real problem for us is that in such chaos in Russia, who is in charge of the nukes? This has all the potential for the flashpoint of nuclear annihilation.
One minute private video – apparently shared via RT or Russia Today, if you catch the final graphic — shows this:
“The person recording this video comments the Wagner PMC convoy keeps moving like this past her for more than 30 minutes already. In Voronezh, toward Moscow.“
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672559033906270213
Mobile and competent will defeat huge but slow, everytime.
HERE’s a nice 10 minute backgrounder on events earlier today, with video clips a good maps to explain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pflh2Uq3pOE
German DW News latest clip, 14m
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4g6j7mQfp8
Let us hope Prigozhin fails. He is a war hawk, and has been agitating for a major escalation of the war. Putin is the moderate in all this. A year ago he had negotiated a cease fire that would have implemented the Minsk agreements and kept the Donbas in Ukraine. Boris Johnson was sent to Kiev to squelch that, and did so.
There is a nationalistic faction in the Russian government that wants to reestablish the Tsarist empire. That means annexation of Belarus (partly done now), Ukraine, the Baltic states, most of Poland, and Finland.
Medvedev has moved from the Atlanticist wing to the Nationalist/Eurasian wing. He would be the likely successor to Putin, and a real problem for the West.
Elon Musk on Twitter declares the best coverage of the coup by Mario Nawfal.
He’s hosting a livecast via Twitter with a group of informed folks. It is excellent and fack filled.
Chechin Rebels getting involved?
Numbers of vehicles in the Wagner column heading North are 400 vehicles.
One opines that thus effort is much larger than the 25,000 attributed to Wagner Group. There are reports that large parts Russian Military has joined with Wagner forces.
Rostov is said to base one-quarter of the entire Army.
These next 6 hours look to be decisive in the outcome.
bob sykes writes “He is a war hawk, and has been agitating for a major escalation of the war.” No. He’s said something to the contrary.
Yesterday, an Institute for War Studies report I found vis Instapundit 8:30AM, indicates that Putin’s deception for the Ukraine war is a major cause of his rebellion.
Wagner Group is now in Moscow Oblast, 2 hours from the city. Video, now. Confidence? “likely true.”
More regular Army defections indicated. The Russian military is supporting Wagner.
Peter Zeihan: “…Russia views its position as existential (because it is). The only path to survival is expanding and conquering the necessary geographical barriers.”
Makes no sense to me. Who is going to invade Russia? Germany? Finland?
Nothing ‘existential’ about this, except Putin’s narrow sense of himself and of Russia’s possibilities.
DailyMail: Rumours circle that Putin has fled Moscow and flown north, Wagner boasts ‘Soon we will have a new president’ as they head to the Russian capital and flights from the city sell out
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12229297/Russian-crisis-LIVE-Prighozins-Wagner-militia-seize-Rostov-Don-Putin-make-statement.html
I have been surfing other places for information, and I’d like to say that Neo and her commenters are about the most well-informed group around.
No matter how insane one may think Democrats, they are always crazier in reality. It seems to be established fact for liberals on Twitter that Trump, Tucker Carlson and the GOP love Putin, are getting paid by Putin, and will be rendered ineffective if Putin falls.
Hatred on display. Intense, bizarre, completely unhinged from reality.
Re: Wagner vs Putin
Do not be surprised if it’s all Russian disinformation or propaganda. The Russians are the world’s best at this.
A year ago he had negotiated a cease fire that would have implemented the Minsk agreements and kept the Donbas in Ukraine. Boris Johnson was sent to Kiev to squelch that, and did so.
==
This is a fantasy.
==
Let us hope Prigozhin fails. He is a war hawk, and has been agitating for a major escalation of the war.
==
Banging your head against the wall harder will do you a world of good.
==
Medvedev has moved from the Atlanticist wing to the Nationalist/Eurasian wing. He would be the likely successor to Putin, and a real problem for the West.
==
I’m sure you’ll be spot on.
I continue to find Peter Zeihan persuasive,
==
Buy my bridge.
Steve McIntyre retweet says Putin and Prig had a long meeting a week ago about extending the contract for Wagner mercs. Putin insisted that they sign with the Russian military. They refused. Contract not renewed. And here we are.
Sounds plausible.
Sorry to hijack this thread, but I think that it is very important for as many people as possible to see this recent, short, but very hard-hitting presentation on the origins of COVID by Dr. David Martin, Ph.D. presented at the European Union’s Third International Covid Summit, in which he presents a lot of information–all of which he says he has documented–that I had never heard before, and in which he contends that, “Covid-19 was an act of biological warfare perpetrated on the human race.” *
==
Act now before the aliens kidnap David E. Martin, PhD. Also, buy the financial products he’s pushing:
https://www.m-cam.com/about-us/
Thoughts from Germany: http://schnitzelrepublic.blogspot.com/2023/06/this-russia-thing.html
Hope springs eternal, but what are the realistic chances of whatever follows Putin being better?
Bauxite,
Which is exactly my previous worry….who is/will be, in charge of the the nukes??
physicsguy,
That and considering who is in charge of the nukes here =
bohica.
More…
https://www.rt.com/russia/578553-prigozhin-armed-insurrection-updates/
For Russia, NATO expansion may be an “existential threat,” but it doesn’t follow that “only path to survival is expanding.” Would this war have happened when it did if relations between NATO and Russia hadn’t been deteriorating for years?
If the “war has to end with one side being completely defeated,” beware of what the side with nuclear weapons would do if faced with complete defeat. With Russia, as with Germany a century ago, beware of countries that feel that they have been disgraced and humiliated.
There is a nationalistic faction in the Russian government that wants to reestablish the Tsarist empire. That means annexation of Belarus (partly done now), Ukraine, the Baltic states, most of Poland, and Finland.
I suspect it’s more a feeling that the three Orthodox and Slavic Russias – Great Russia (Russia), Little Russia (Ukraine), White Russia (Belarus) – ought to be under one government. That was the old, pre-Petrine tsarist empire before the expansion into new territories. Of course, if that is achieved there is a temptation to expand further, as well as the possibility of creating satellite states around Russia, but I’d be surprised if serious Russian policy makers expect or are planning to digest Finland.
The tsarist empire had cossacks living on its borders as a kind of paramilitary force. Now we find paramilitaries again in Russia and Ukraine, both before and after the Russian invasion, and playing a key role in events.
@Stan
Dear God. Like I expected the “Trump loves Putin” propaganda. But this bullshit makes it sound like they are actually shilling for Prig the Neo-Nazi or at least Neo-Nazi-Employing War Hawk just to “Own the Cons.”
Longtime readers of this blog should know my ranting and raving on the Kremlin, Putin, Ukraine, and so on. So I hope it means something when I say that in this particular tussle Putin *MIGHT* be the lesser evil, at least between himself and Prigo.
I hope this gives the Ukrainians some leeway on the front and might help some better/less deranged elements in Russia get in, but hope springs eternal while doom always lurks in Current Year. And that’s before we get into what passes for our governance at home and elsewhere.
And they all lived happily ever after?
Belarusian president held talks with Prigozhin today. Lukashenko says that Prigozhin has agreed to “stop the movement of armed persons on the territory of Russia and to take further steps to deescalate.”
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672653544439136260
I just hope Joe Biden has the good sense to stay at his beach house, relax and enjoy the ocean view, and keep his yap shut.
Admittedly, the words “Biden” and “good sense” are seldom found in proximity.
I don’t see how, after what has passed, Prigozhin or his troops can believe any “security guarantees,” any more than can Putin and his close defenders.
It seems to me that this situation, whatever the outcome, seriously weakens Russia in Ukraine and in general.
Turtler on Putin. He might be the lesser evil.
True. But it is difficult to know, to given his war of choice in Ukraine, rationalized as existentially necessary.
What Prigozhin, however, seems more honest than Putin. And possibly minutes just.
And it is worth recalling that Putin’s 20 years in power has been maintained by a group of oligarchs (who Putin has systematically selected for loyalty), Prigozhin among them.
What happens when the more brutal oligarch arrives at the top of the heap?
We could be there in the next day, finding out. But bear in mind that Wagner is a mercenary outfit, and they want to profit.
And to do that, they have to survive long enough to enjoy some sort of security.
I believe that the quest for more security is why Prigozhin aims at Moscow now.
From about two hours ago, here are Kamil Galeev’s latest tweets on what’s going on in Russia. I promise not to keep doing this. Anybody else who’s interested can go to his Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/kamilkazani). I’ve also added a long postscript. Apologies to all, if I’ve exceeded the acceptable length for a blog comment.
“Discussing the political developments in Russia as ‘the fall of Putin’s regime’ is spoiling the frame. It is not about the fall of Putin. It is about a demise of the entire assabiyah. The assabiyah evolved from 1917 to 2023 largely uninterruptedly. There was no major replacement. And by now it is really old. Putin is the third generation. Kirienko is the fourth. And most likely, there will be no fifth one. What awaits Russia is the radical replacement of elites.
Post-1917 replacement of elites was limited in scale. Post-1953, it was largely cosmetic. The 1990s to a significant extent were just the Komsomol leadership changing a sign on their office door: ‘community-owned’ NTTM -> private owned AMK. Same people, different circumstances.
It is highly probable that in the coming years we will see a radical replacement of the ruling classes far exceeding anything we saw in the 1990s. The 1990s did not interrupt the continuity of the Soviet era elites. But the 2020s most probably will.”
POSTSCRIPT:
In his tweets, Galeev repeatedly invoked the concept of assabiyah, which was unknown to me, so I looked it up. Aziz Al-Azmeh offers a long definition of “assabiyah” in his discussion of Ibn Khaldun’s book of universal history “The Muqaddimah,” published in 1337 (https://tinyurl.com/4kvfv8ec):
“Of course, of course. Assabiyah is quite often translated as corporate solidarity or the solidarity of a group, usually understood as a sentiment. Of course, assabiyah is a sentiment but assabiyah also designates a power group, a power group which is welded by an internal cohesion and internal loyalties. So assabiyah, is, in essence, as he says, comparable to a genealogical relationship to a family, it doesn’t have to be an actual family, but it acts as if or it functions as if it were a family. That is what al assabiyah is. So, the power of a state is actually obtained by al assabiyah, which then manages to overpower others and come on top and then found a dynasty. Once the dynasty is founded, then another type of process enters. There’s a phase of prosperity, and expansion, followed by longer phase of decline and obsolescence and the replacement of one power group by another.”
“So assabiyah is really a power group, not simply a sense of solidarity. It’s a power group, which is also internally animated by a feeling of solidarity, which is analogous to the solidarity among members of a family. That is how it functions. Now, there is empirical purchase to this, very clearly empirical purchase to this, and many of the developments of the long passages in the book, which talks about assabiyah, and the way it acts in a state, and founds the state and transforms itself in the process of rule are sustained by very clear reference to empirical material. Material things that he had seen and witnessed himself and what the histories that he read had taught him about the way in which states had been founded.”
Breaking! –
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12230141/Wagner-chief-agrees-escalate-END-mercenary-groups-march-Moscow.html
— or breaking?
Analysis from strategy geeks welcome.
Hope springs eternal, but what are the realistic chances of whatever follows Putin being better?
==
Khruschev replaces Stalin (better);
Brezhnev / Kosygin replaces Khruschev (ambiguous, perhaps marginally worse).
[interregnum following Brezhnev / Kosygin] (same)
Gorbachev follows the interregnum (better)
Yeltsin replaces Gorbachev (ambivalent)
Putin replaces Yeltsin (ambivalent).
It is highly probable that in the coming years we will see a radical replacement of the ruling classes far exceeding anything we saw in the 1990s. The 1990s did not interrupt the continuity of the Soviet era elites. But the 2020s most probably will
==
Tell him to let go of your leg.
Art Deco said “Tell him to let go of your leg.”
Art:
You might be right. As I’ve said, I don’t know much about Russian history or politics. After the Ukraine invasion, I started reading Galeev’s Twitter feed because I found it interesting. So much else written on the subject struck me as thin partisanship.
If you’d care to expand on your leg-pulling comment, I’d happily take a look.
13 minutes weren’t the existential threat to Vlad after all?
Vlad didn’t murder quite enough oligarchs, potential rivals, it seems.
Time will tell.
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1672655838681395201
If you’d care to expand on your leg-pulling comment, I’d happily take a look.
==
Purveyors of political science are terrible at forecasting, at least in situations where quantitative methods are not applied (and you can see failures there). Here he’s telling you that cataclysmic events have scant effect in the composition of ‘elites’ but we’re about to see the house cleaning you didn’t see in 1917. You don’t need to have a granular knowledge of Russian history to figure he’s blowing smoke at you.
Civil War in Ruzzia Prygozhyn is Going to to Moscow Live Stream – Denys Davydov
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2ZfC3JmCp8
I break for just two plus hours. And the coup is off! Apparently, Lukashenko has been negotiating with Prigozhan. Putin has accepted an agreement to grant a full pardon to him and the Wagner Group. Troops in Rostov and elsewhere are returning to their bases.
But what does Prigozhan gain? He has always been under the MoD. Apparently, that’s off. And he has gained some elevated status, militarily. Including the demotion of the generals he’s long-butted heads with.
Surely, there is more fallout to come from this flash fire coup. What that is leaves much to speculate on. From Zerohedge,
“Update(1325ET): An emerging Russian state media headline: Prigozhin Agrees to Stop PMC Wagner March, Start De-Escalation After Lukashenko’s Mediation…
“Belarusian president held talks with Prigozhin today. Lukashenko says that Prigozhin has agreed to ‘stop the movement of armed persons on the territory of Russia and to take further steps to deescalate.’
“Prigozhin has reportedly accepted Lukashenka’s proposal to stop the movement of PMC Wagner, according to Russian state media TASS. Reuters is also reporting the Kremlin-backed statements. Did we just witness a 22-hour coup? All over now?…
According to RT’s reporting:
“Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Saturday that he had arranged a deal whereby Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for ‘security guarantees’ for his fighters.
‘Evgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed men of Wagner in Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tension,’ read a statement from Lukashenko’s office.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-blasts-wagner-treason-betrayal-clashes-erupt-southern-russia
“Do not be surprised if it’s all Russian disinformation or propaganda. ”
Yes, 51 top US intelligence officials have assured me it has all the earmarks.
Art:
I can’t disagree with your comment about the terrible forecasting record of political scientists.
But to be fair, Galeev compared the 1990’s to what we may see in the 2020’s. His tweet didn’t compare the 2020’s to 1917. He did, however, say “[t]he assabiyah evolved from 1917 to 2023 largely uninterruptedly.” I agree that sounds like an extreme statement.
I can’t remember whether Galeev has addressed the role of demographic changes, but I think that many observers have said that demography will affect changes in the empire’s elite composition. Will the rest of the 2020’s mark an historical break in the composition of the Russian empire’s elite? I guess we’ll soon see.
“It is not about the fall of Putin. It is about a demise of the entire assabiyah. The assabiyah evolved from 1917 to 2023 largely uninterruptedly.”
It certainly isn’t clear yet whether this is going to be such a major turning point. However it is true that though Putin may no longer be an ideological communist he is entirely a product of the Soviet system. He was an officer in KGB for 15 years.
bob sykes: “That means annexation of Belarus (partly done now)”
Has Russia actually annexed territory from Belarus? The Belarusian government, ie Lukashenko, is aligned with Moscow, that has been true pretty much since the breakup of the Soviet Union.
“[Medvedev] would be the likely successor to Putin and a real problem for the West”
My impression of Medvedev is that he is a weaker figure than Putin, admittedly based on scant evidence. It would look more to me like the final days of the Soviet Union, supporting the “demise of the assabiyah” theory. But Russia is always full of surprises.
It sure looks like Prigozhan held a winning hand but folded – like a cheap suit. Did the FSB hold the Aces? Like, have his relatives held hostage? The man needed an advocate or lawyer to negotiate for him, it seems.
One COMMENTER at Instapundit has solid insight from history. Namely, precedent: “Sort of reminiscent of the 1991 Soviet coup, for those old enough to remember. Gorbachev was placed under house arrest, but two days later everybody said, ‘never mind’ and let’s just pretend this never happened.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_d%27état_attempt
True enough! Even if crazier now.
Another ripe COMMENT from Indy….
Crab Girdles
10 hours ago
“Long ago and far away, I lived in a banana republic. Over 7 years we had 5 governments, only one of them elected, and that one didn’t last long. In a tiny undeveloped country, if the coup-makers seize the head of state’s residence, the radio station, and the main barracks, they’re pretty much in control of the country. (Frederick Forsythe’s Dogs of War didn’t simplify things as much as one might think.)
“Since then I’ve always assumed that such a coup couldn’t scale up to a large country. Today’s news out of Russia suggests I was mistaken, because the events sound eerily familiar.“
Sage observers have said that traditional, necessary things to make a coup succeed were absent here. Now I’m not sure this thesis fully fly’s — events were proceeding too fast and furiously to know otherwise.
But one requirement leaps out at me: Prigozhan had not controlled the media, and didn’t seem even bent towards doing so.
He has been called “Putin’s chef” because he made his early money as a caterer. That early in career life fact screams “out of my depth.” But so does running a ruthless mercenary army…so?