The Nordstream pipeline has been damaged, and it looks like sabotage
As if things weren’t bad enough, now this:
Natural-gas is erupting like geysers on the surface of the Baltic Sea above the damaged Nord Stream pipelines, images from the Danish military show.
Danish Defence on Tuesday released a video taken from a helicopter showing the extent of the disturbances caused by the leaking pipelines, which European officials believe have been sabotaged…
The pipelines were intended to be the main artery of natural-gas flow from Russia to Europe, but supply has been all but shut off since Russia invaded Ukraine. The damage to Nord Stream is a further blow to Europe as it grapples with an energy crisis.
Who did it? How? And why?
I obviously don’t have the answers. My first thought was that we still are arguing about who set the Reichstag Fire, so I doubt we’ll ever know for sure. Another thought is that it can’t be easy to accomplish the sabotage – underwater diving of some sort, with explosives – but it’s certainly more than possible for private groups or for government entities. Another question is whether such a thing can ever be prevented.
If this had happened prior to the Ukraine war, I would have said the culprit was some environmental group. They aren’t high on my suspect list now, which is topped by Russia. You might say that’s silly, because Russia’s revenue is based on selling its gas via such a pipeline; why would it sabotage itself? My answer is that, as you can see from the quote above, “supply had been all but shut off since Russia invaded Ukraine.” Obviously Russia is not depending on this right now. It’s Europe that’s hurting, and Russia would like Europe to hurt much much more and much much longer, and to be afraid of future sabotage as well. Stupid Europe, says Russia:
What is Russia doing for revenue right now? Remember this?:
Although exports to the European Union (EU) have fallen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the bloc is still buying a significant amount – over one million barrels of oil per day.
However, EU members states have said they’ll ban all seaborne imports from December (most Russian oil comes by sea rather than by pipeline).
India and China have recently become big buyers and now account for over half of all Russia’s seaborne oil exports.
“India accounts for the bulk of Russian crude flows redirected to Asia,” says Sean Cronin, head of oil analysis at Argus Media.
Here’s another article that mentions that neither branch of the Nordstream pipeline was operational when the explosions occurred:
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline – which consists of two parallel branches – has not transported any gas since August when Russia closed it down for maintenance.
It stretches 745 miles (1,200km) under the Baltic Sea from the Russian coast near St Petersburg to north-eastern Germany. Its twin pipeline, Nord Stream 2, was halted after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.
Although neither pipeline is in operation, they both still contain gas.
As for arguments that it’s not Russia who did it, because they wouldn’t act against their future self-interest, I disagree. First of all, as I pointed out, they don’t need Europe as a customer for their gas; Europe needs them much more than vice versa. Secondly, the damage can be repaired if necessary. If Putin was concerned about his future self-interest in European markets, he’d have withdrawn from Ukraine some time ago. But he is not the least bit concerned about it.
The US? Or China? I regard Russia as less likely. Who seeks to fan the flames of war?
I am not ready to rule out the environmentalist groups. They are crazy and getting more crazy every day.
Since the pipelines were not currently transporting gas, this doesn’t make much sense to me. To my mind, not making any sense points to eco-terrorists. Apparently these lines were within the reach of deep-diving equipment.
But we’ll have to see if any evidence emerges.
I’m another vote for “not Russia”. They’ve shown they know how to turn off the pipeline without destroying it. They don’t need an excuse.
This is not proof of course.
But intriguing.
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1574818446117830657
Anne Applebaum’s husband, an EU member of parliament who has close ties to the Biden Admin, thanks the U.S. for sabotaging the pipeline.
I may be in minority on this subject. But I have zero sympathy for what Europe is going through.
And only a tiny fraction is due to Trump warning them of this exact thing happening less than a decade ago. These fools continue to elect politicians who kept promising to eliminate every reliable form of energy from their sphere of influence.
Bye bye coal. Shut down all their nuclear plants. Promising the ridiculous solar and wind farms. When the numbers clearly show that AT THEIR ABSOLUTE BEST. Those forms of energy can substitute only a small fraction of what they need to survive. Only France….FRANCE for the love of god. Was sane enough to keep their nuclear plants going.
So to hell with them. Let them sit in the cold dark 400 year old homes. And dream of being warm. This is an entirely self inflicted wound. And once the long hard winter is over. Hopefully the populous will march on their capitals and oust the Luddites from their ivory towers. And restore some semblance of sanity
Fox report says that the CIA warned Germany.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/germany-warned-possible-attack-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-cia-weeks-advance-report
I’m wondering why there’s gas in the pipeline. They can run a giant mechanical stopper, called a pig, to clean the line out.
Also, is this pipeline above ground or underground, under the sea?
KRB
JimNorCal:
It’s not the least bit intriguing.
By the way, the pipeline was already mostly off, as I pointed out in my article. Nor did these explosions “destroy” it.
Applebaum’s husband doesn’t even try to mount an argument that makes sense. My argument makes sense, and it implicates Russia. And if he’s anything like his wife, he’s quite a piece of work.
Who benefits?
The Germans just lost the ability to stab Ukraine in the back to get their gas back on this winter. Obvious candidates are Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic Republics. The US could be on this list as well. The Russians being Russians, might have a reason I can’t fathom but they can’t be ruled out.
Clarity will come if an LNG tanker headed for Poland from the US goes boom, accompanied by reminders from the Kremlin about how ‘dangerous’ LNG is compared to their pipelines (which didn’t do any damage to anything else when sabotaged).
neo states,
“Obviously Russia is not depending on this right now. It’s Europe that’s hurting, and Russia would like Europe to hurt much much more and much much longer…”
Then follows with, “First of all, as I pointed out, they don’t need Europe as a customer for their gas; Europe needs them much more than vice versa.”
Agreed Russia does not need Europe. How does blowing a hole in the pipeline hurt Europe “much, much more” than simply leaving the pipeline shut down? Indeed, in perpetuity if Russia sees it in ther interest?
Also, isn’t it the case that, Russia only having to turn on the pipeline’s valve to relieve Europe’s approaching winter crisis, provided Russia with leverage in getting Europe to drop the sanctions?
Whereas, now Russia has lost that leverage.
There’s only one party that absolutely benefits from this and that’s the side that wants the war to continue until Putin is gone.
Me thinks that those who insist that Russia is most likely to blame are straining out a gnat while swallowing a camel.
There are reports (how believable?) that the U.S. Navy was carrying out some underwater operations in the Baltic a mere three months ago. Asking “Cui Bono?” might seem to suggest an actor hostile to Putin and Russia.
Geoffrey Britain:
The sabotage hurts no one right now. So you could argue that no one did it. Obviously, some one did it.
What it does is plunge Europe into more fear and turmoil, and it demonstrates that future sabotage of Europe’s gas supplies is possible. That is the motive, in my opinion, the only motive, and it’s Russia that has that motive.
Unless it’s the Greens. But I think they would have done this earlier if they were going to do it. To do it when the pipeline isn’t doing much makes little sense, plus it sends the gas into the sea.
Geoffrey Britain:
Your track record on the Ukraine war and Russia isn’t good. But I’ll say this for you – you’re consistent in your defense of Russia.
Russia has given up on selling gas to Europe. It doesn’t need Europe. Nor has Europe responded to its leverage so far – and that’s one of the reasons Russia has given up, at least for the foreseeable future. It has found alternatives and is doing fine in that regard.
John Fisher:
I already gave my opinion on the possible motive of Russia. I don’t think it’s the least bit unfathomable. Whether you agree or not is another question, but it certainly can be fathomed.
who wants the end to fossil fuels, who wants us eating bugs, instead of meat, who has been been the drum major in this proxy war, now sikorski just can’r even do a poker face,
expat,
“Fox report says that the CIA warned Germany.”
If any party had the means and intended to sabotage the pipeline ,the Germans could do little to protect a long pipeline under the sea. But a CIA ‘warning’ ahead of time does provide a letter perfect presumptive alibi, which for the still trusting moves the Biden administration (Deep State) off the usual suspects list.
Michael Shellenberger (who does know something about energy) has been posting some very interesting material on Twitter (and a short piece at Forbes) without far-fetched speculation or any assignment of blame. The timing of this event is certainly strange indeed, and the tale may well grow “curiouser and curiouser”, nor will there be any reason to trust anything on the topic emanating from the WH or the “alphabet agencies”.
neo,
Despite appearances, I’ve never been motivated to defend Russia or Putin for that matter. We simply disagree as to what is actually going on. Time will tell which of us has the more accurate view of reality.
Despite months of posts to the contrary, Geoffrey claims to have never defended Putin or provided rationalizations for Vlad. Otay.
Roosia has submarines quite capable of sabotaging the pipeline or supporting divers to do it. There would be nothing to see until the pipeline stoped working. The Roosians have quite a history of subsurface shenagins in the Baltic.
Eight months ago, V Nuland warned that should Russia invade Ukraine, “Nord Stream 2, one way or another, would not move forward”. State’s Ned Price used almost the exact same words in late January.
we have no illusions about putin, keeping our powder dry and our wells pumping would have prevented this caucasus crack up, but certain factions deemed that not to be in their interests,
we know soviet designed educational templates, complement the zinn primers, we know china is behind so much of this mind arson, and they own so much of the educational and administrative infrastructure,
Mythx at 5:06 p.m., I agree about Europe. They have dug their own grave with this. Ideology has overwhelmed common sense.
Brought fwd from the Open Thread.
https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662
(Feb 2022)
Pres. Biden: “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
Reporter: “But how will you do that, exactly, since…the project is in Germany’s control?”
Biden: “I promise you, we will be able to do that.”
http://abcn.ws/3B5SScx
big guy, got his 20k, others had their piece of the action, schumer, pelosi, to shut down the pipelines, except perhaps the qatari one that runs through syria to turkey,
Just a clarification: we’re not really debating who committed the Reichstag fire seriously any more. Marinius van der Lubbe did it and almost certainly acted alone, as outlined by his conduct during his fatal trial and ironed out by Fritz Tobias in his articles and those who followed him.
In some ways it is interesting that this has persisted so long and I kind of consider it a proto-Rosenberg moment with true believers denying it unto the end in spite of evidence.
Neo, I see your argument in favor of Russia’s sabotaging its own (unused) pipelines. I’m not sure I’m convinced. Nor am I convinced the CIA did it, despite Biden’s blather. It still seems to me that Green crazies could have, just because it doesn’t make much sense.
I may have quoted, more or less, Sowell in Intellectuals and War before. To expect other nations to act rationally in their own interests rationally seen by rational intellectuals is not likely to work. The other countries have their own views, not to mention their own idea of “rational””
“…it doesn’t make much sense.”
What about the “Look! Destroyed pipelines!” angle?
(IOW, just another useful distraction…but from what?? And for whom??)
Hmmm. Wonder what role Turkey might be playing here… A longshot?
ah the sultan (as ryan george would say) is the question, the last pipeline empties in ceyhan, on the black sea,
That’s an interesting suggestion, Barry M. Cui bono?
Turkey:
Submarines in the Baltic? Nyet.
Large Turkish expat population in Germany? Da!
Who knows? Doh!
Homer did it.
I doubt that Russia would sabotage their own infrastructure when they control the flow in the first place. There can be many reasons to interrupt the capability to use a pipeline, but nearly all of the strategic reasons are to be punitive downstream. Russia is already doing that. And damaging the pipeline in this way creates problems that must be addressed quickly, or the damage becomes catastrophic, potentially quickly. So this is as much an attack on Russia as it is on the EU.
The pipeline is kept full of gas – ‘packed’ to keep it in optimal condition. If the pressure isn’t maintained, they risk collapsing it – I’m sure this is part of their design criteria, as it is in oil / gas wells. But is has to be fixed and re-evacuated of sea water or corrosion from sea water can quickly become a problem.
And of course, if the pipeline is sitting unused, it is still ‘at ready’ to produce and make revenue. In other words, it comprises political, diplomatic, and economic options. I would be highly skeptical that a leader like Putin would be willing to liquidate options like that.
I think the suspects are US, UK, and Poland. Baltics are possible but less likely. Russia’s play is to wait until the crisis point in February and then dangle the possibility of natural gas supply to Europe … perhaps for a ceasefire in place, if the position on the ground still favors Russia. Sabotaging the pipeline takes away the temptation of giving in Russian energy blackmail.
Russia needs the pipelines west because pipeline delivery of natural gas is far easier and cheaper than LNG. Their main fields in western Siberia are not connected to China by pipeline, so diverting to another market is not possible without building out LNG infrastructure.
Biden did it, but now he will blame Trump, who wanted to be proven prescient! Doesn’t matter if it’s plausible, the media will run with it! A winter surprise!
Cui Bono? Who can benefit? The issues of capacity and motive makes identifying a perpetrator tricky because those obviously with the former lack the latter.
But then consider the size? Danish video estimates the surface bubbling at a kilometre wide. If this reflects the size of the blast some 90 meters below, then we might gain a possible perp.
Size alone and the multiplicity of leaks said to be three, appears to rule out a precision sabotage effort. This makes US responsibility, even mooted by a former Polish Foreign Minister, unlikely.
Furthermore, given three explosions on two pipelines implies the necessity of redundant attempts to achieve this goal, as well as using simple methods of delivery, such as a surface sunk charge.
This therefore implies an outside player. While North Korea is conceivable, Iran seems more likely: buy off a Middle East Muslim ship’s captain to alter course and drop a substantial explosive charge, is one way. (Although, could it have been a trained or rehearsed hit job via pleasure craft, instead?)
The Iranian notice may concern over stalled Biden led talks Ed someone, perhaps sidelined, yet needing to break oil trading sanctions to gain its leaders more income from high and now higher oil and gas prices.
This is my best guess. No doubt analysts and radar records of ship traffic are being scoured as we speak to narrow possibles down into plausibles….
“I doubt that Russia would sabotage their own infrastructure when they control the flow in the first place.”
Aggie’s right. Russia has their hand on the flow valve…blowing it up is not in their best interest.
“So this is as much an attack on Russia as it is on the EU.”
Absolutely. This takes the energy producing “whip hand” away from Russia.
So…The list of suspects starts with those who gain from an attack on Russia.
I won’t speculate on that. Let’s wait the usual 72 hours or so…then whatever is the “official narrative,” believe exactly the opposite.
It takes a submarine. High explosives. Trained divers. This is not an amateur operation. It was professional. Military. Who benefits from the propoganda?
“I doubt that Russia would sabotage their own infrastructure when they control the flow in the first place.”
[voice=Irish cop] They might, rabbit, they might. [/voice]
I think there are a few points missing on this thread that are important to understanding the issue.
1) Because of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is losing Europe as a customer for its hydrocarbons. It’s just a matter of when.
Europe has a five-year plan to wean itself from Russian oil & gas. I don’t think Russia will give them that long, but regardless of Russia’s actions, those gas sales are going away.
2) The loss of gas sales to Europe is huge, and the increase in gas sales to India and China in no way makes up for that. Europe will eventually find other suppliers, but Russia is going to be out the dough for a long time, probably permanently.
3) In the arena of public opinion, this lets Russia off the hook. Sure, they can turn off the tap at the source, but then they suffer the bad press while Europeans suffer this winter. With the pipelines lost to sabotage, they can and probably will blame the Americans, and a good number of Europeans (and, sadly, Americans) will believe them.
That is not to say that the Russians are definitely responsible, but they don’t have as much to lose by it as many here are claiming. The gas sales are gone either way. It’s just a matter of when and who to blame.
And it is Putin’s long term interest to nuke Ukraine and crap up (contaminate) his own bread basket too? Glad that an adult statesman is in charge of Roosia. Funny how despots sort out their interests.
A main point in Peter Zeihan’s presentations is the fragility of oil/gas connections between Russia and Europe, and the huge impact of disruptions on Europe, particularly Germany.
As Zeihan sees it, this is an economy killer for Germany, and countries dependent on it.
Zeihan generally doesn’t speculate on who might damage these connections. His argument is that in times of tensions and conflict the odds are overwhelming that, as the US loses interest in maintaining international order on its dime, someone will find a reason.
Here’s his on-the-trail video after Russia closed Nord Stream 1. I expect he’ll have a video on the latest Nord Stream news in a day or two.
__________________________
all of this put together suggests
that the manufacturing model that has
sustained germany that has provided the
tax base that has provided economic
growth that has made the population
relatively happy with their situation
it’s gone
and it’s going to vanish within the next year
and a europe that does not have a german
motor at its heart is a europe that all
of a sudden needs to find a very very
different way to function
–Peter Zeihan, “Germany Shuts Nord Stream for Repair, and Europe Holds its Breath”*(July 11, 2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm_fPN-yeJc&t=56s
__________________________
* I don’t know why the video is titled “Germany Shuts Down Nord Stream.” In the video Zeihan says that Russia shut it down “ostensibly for maintenance is what the Russian are saying.”
Fwiw
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/nordstream-of-consciousness
“Let’s wait the usual 72 hours or so…then whatever is the “official narrative,” believe exactly the opposite.”
Works for me!
Germany, from what I’ve viewed and read, has 3 main predicted outcomes.
1) Horrific, people freeze to death.
2) People make it through but industries shut down. It won’t take much. For example, if BASF shut down there are a ton of factories for which it is a supplier and they will be in danger of shutdown as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyB7RXrbbIQ (India media, about 4 min)
3) People make it through, industries stay active BUT due to the cost of energy the goods being produced are priced out of the export market. Apparently EU companies are already making plans to leave … for the US if this report (also about 4 min) is correct. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gom9fSV_oe4
Options 2 and 3 lead to massive job loss and widespread impoverishment even though the brunt of energy shortages is avoided.
The coming year will be the acid test of Zeihan’s forecasts. As I say, I find him persuasive.
It depends on how successfully flexible humanity can be in the face of demographic collapse, the decline of Russia and China, escalating international tensions and the resulting shock waves hitting the global economy.
Paul Ehrlich, the Stanford prof who made headlines with his gloom-and-doom book, “The Population Bomb,” was persuasive too. However, he underestimated the effectiveness of the Green Revolution in agriculture and the power of industrialization in raising hundreds of millions out of dire poverty.
Zeihan’s overall point is that both of these levers were made possible by the American protection of trade after World War II.
The Green Revolution depends upon improved fertilizers based on phosphates and petrochemicals — which usually are transported from somewhere else. Likewise the vast spiderweb of supply chains, which allow any country to find a niche and trade what they can do best.
According to Zeihan, the past seventy years have been a very special window, where everything worked incredibly well, but that window is closing and there’s not much we can do about it. Each country and region will have to ride it out as best they can.
Hmm. This is interesting. Baltic Pipeline just opened today. What is it? It’s a gas pipeline from Norway to Poland. Quite the coincidence.
https://gna.org.gh/2022/09/poland-denmark-and-norway-open-new-gas-pipeline-under-baltic-sea/
Now who would profit from shutting down Russia’s natural gas? Norway? Yep. Poland? Yep. Denmark? Yep. Maybe other eastern European countries? Quite a list of possible suspects. The plot thickens.
One thing for sure. The Europeans are highly motivated to get out from under Putin’s energy thumb. He’s played that card too often. And while many European countries are trying to go Geren, Norway has kept its wits about it and is still willing to be a producer of fossil fuels.
Speculation on the explosion is also running along the same lines at Sarah Hoyt’s blog post yesterday, although her commenters point out:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2022/09/26/double-edged-compassion/#comment-877698
AND
If Russia didn’t do it, and Ukraine didn’t do it, then whoever did it committed a NEW act of war.
If Russia goes after some other country in the next 72 hours, we’ll know who they think did it.
AesopFan says it was an Act of War. True enough.
It is either some new rogue faction (eg, maybe the “Climate Extinction” movement goes militant), or else it’s an old rogue or pariah state like Iran, which hasn’t blanched at Acts of War, like against Saudi Arabia refineries in 2019 or ships bound for Japan.
Tucker Carlson’s take on the Nordstream sabotage… thoughts?
https://youtu.be/jLb0QeCQF_I
Germany’s DW interviews an oil analyst in Oslo who argues that Gasprom would obviously benefits from the sabotage. Specifically, an Act of God would get the company out from paying penalties for failure to perform contractually.
Listen to 13 to 16m here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShXmPA21j-E
I’m still waiting… not yet convinced it was an intended event. Pipeline integrity is a concern for pipelines throughout the industry. While coincidence is less likely in this scenario, there is enough irregularities in this pipelines operation in the recent past that a loss of containment event would not be extraordinary.
I agree with Aggie above on the notion of Russian sabotage for a pipeline they control. The few benefits, such as commitment to a plan, could be easily done and controlled within Russian territory. Putin doesn’t need this event for an escalation he already called for prior to it.
TJ’s post about Gasprom is possible, but I doubt Gasprom has resources to make it happen. Sabotage is not an Act of God. There will be an inspection of this pipeline and it will tell quite a bit.
Tucker Carlson thinks the US did it.
Cornhead:
Of course he does.
I’ve disagreed with Carlson on a large number of foreign policy issues, as well as some of his COVID coverage, for many years. I find his thinking in those two areas to sometimes be sloppy and even at times mendacious. That includes some of his Ukraine coverage. In general I’m in far more agreement with him on a lot of domestic matters.
Leland — as the oil analyst interviewed on DW explains, Gasprom could EASILY explode the pipeline using standard pipeline management equipment that crawls the interior of pipelines.
While you or I may doubt it, if he’s fading us, other experts in the industry would easily call him out. Instead, you ought to listen to him and learn something.
Leland — as the oil analyst interviewed on DW explains, Gasprom could EASILY explode the pipeline using standard pipeline management equipment that crawls the interior of pipelines.
While you or I may doubt it, if he’s fading us, other experts in the industry would easily call him out. Instead, you ought to listen to him and learn something.
Re Neo on Tucker — to employ an ancient Rushism, “Ditto that.”
Sure, you can stick a pig into the pipeline, but how do you hide its remains to claim Act of God? BTW, I have plenty of access to industry analyst on risk. I am one.
A crawler isn’t a pig, isn’t a bemb. Homer did it, doh.
Leland. I am not a trained saboteur, but the Infantry School gives you the first paragraph of just about everything, including using the enemy’s stored energy instead of bringing your own.
In this case, you don’t need to blow up the pig. You put a small item with wheels in front of it. Push to spot and return.
A thorough inspection is going to be pretty dicey in terms of believability. Whatever the conclusion is, it will be seen to benefit somebody and thus cannot be trusted. Besides, CNN isn’t going to have Don Lemon down there looking over the inspector’s shoulders.
Another item: Germany, having found out what happens when you need–not simply find convenient but NEED–external energy sources, is going to have an issue with its Green Movement? Or not? Are other countries going to be thinking about this? You got really, really Green and fill in the inevitable gaps with the hated natural gas and…everything’s cool. The Greens may be trying to sell that as the Grail, but will their fellow citizens continue to buy it?
The Epoch Times adds new details. Here’s one not previously noted, the locations shallow water depths make it ideal for attack:
H.I. Sutton, who has written on submarine warfare, said that where the alleged blasts occurred, the water was at a relatively shallow depth. Divers or unmanned vehicles could have easily accessed it, he wrote.
“The leak is near the Danish island of Bornholm, at 54.8762°, 15.4099° in [approximately] 70 meters of water,” he wrote on Twitter. “This would be divable 2 things do make it suspicious: a) It is just over 12 nautical miles from the Island in International waters b) the [exclusive economic zone] here is disputed here.”
FULL EXTRACT is online, here
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4096694/posts
Seen on the internet
When even CNN won’t buy your BS:
Scott Adams
@ScottAdamsSays
CNN asked ex-CIA director Brennan to explain why he says Putin probably blew up his own undersea pipeline to teach the West a lesson instead of “just turning it off.”
So here’s Peter Zeihan on the current sabotage of Nord Stream. He discusses the various theories, but doesn’t think any of them hold up to scrutiny, particularly those which point the finger at the US.
______________________________
the damage is in 70 meters of
water it’s about 220 feet and the
problem here is narrowing down the
susceptible is impossible because at
that depth if you have a couple of tanks
and you know what you’re doing pretty
much any commercial scuba diving
operator could have gotten down that
deep and you know basically taken a
pickaxe to a pipeline or something a
little bit more sophisticated
so that narrows the subject the suspect
pool not at all here are a number of
theories out there none of which I can
put my finger on because none of them
really make great sense
one is that the
US would do this in order to make sure
the Europeans would never use Russian
natural gas again okay but uh the
Russians turned off the pipes themselves
which is a much better PR battle from
the American point of view than putting
a couple of holes in a pipe which could
be repaired
interesting to point the finger at a
number of the Nordic States whether it’s
Sweden Latvia Lithuania Estonia or maybe
even Poland because they have a vested
interest in seeing this line go offline
because it would force the rest of the
Europeans to finally suck it up and move
on without Russia that makes a little
bit more sense but again
this is relatively easily repairable
unless someone stuck a stick of dynamite inside it
as opposed to someone just poking a hole at it
so no good theories hold up to any sort of scrutiny
–Peter Zeihan, “Something Fishy in the Baltic Sea”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qEEsjnhhfk&t=46s
Tucker Carlson may be wrong about who might have sabotaged the pipelines. However, in his defense, Biden and Victoria Nuland both said they could and would shut down the pipeline. No mention of how just that it could be done. Seems pretty clear that the threat was made.
Tucker doesn’t favor helping Ukraine against Russia because Ukraine isn’t his idea of a good democracy that’s worth defending. I disagree, but at the same time, recognize that the Democrats seem to want the war to continue. Why? IMO, they like having an excuse to spend money that goes into the pockets of their contributors, the military-industrial complex. And they believe that Ukraine can eventually deplete Russia’s military capabilities so badly that Putin will become a paper tiger. They don’t care that so much Ukrainian infrastructure and lives are being lost.
My question is, why haven’t the U.S. and the UN been constantly pressing for a ceasefire and peace negotiations? According to some reports, there was a tentative peace deal on the table in Aprill, 2022, but Zelensky was told by Boris Johnson that the West would not sign off on such a deal.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/02/diplomacy-watch-why-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/
If true, it shows blatant disregard for the deadly toll of the war on Ukraine.
I would like to see Putin defeated and out of power as much as anyone. He is the aggressor. But what price will Ukraine have to pay to make that happen?
Is Biden dumb and arrogant enough to sabotage the pipelines? Given his track record, you can’t completely rule it out.
JJ:
Tucker Carlson is an old-fashioned Buchananite paleo-conservative re virtually all US intervention in foreign countries.
Whether Ukraine is a great democracy worth defending is somewhat irrelevant, IMO. Carlson thinks it’s perfectly fine to let Russia take over a functioning democratic country, part of Europe and friendly to Western Europe, that is trying to defend itself against invasion by another country that has abused it in the past. Carlson lives in a dream world of international isolationism.
As I’ve pointed out, the pipeline was already pretty much shut down. So Biden saying he’d shut it down is irrelevant. However, what did Biden actually say? This, on February 7th (prior to the invasion), as part of his threat-bluster trying to head Putin off from an invasion:
And here’s more about the non-operationality of the pipelines:
As pointed out in the quote NordStream 1 (appears to have been bembed) is a different pipeline than NordStream 2.
NordStream 1 was operating at 20% capacity.
NordStream 2 has not been in operation, ever. Brandon was talking about shutting down NordStream 2 should Roosia invade Ukraine.
If you believe anything Brandon says, that is an entirely different problem.
Zeihan via hux: “US would do this in order to make sure
the Europeans would never use Russian
natural gas again okay but uh the
Russians turned off the pipes themselves
which is a much better PR battle from
the American point of view than putting
a couple of holes in a pipe which could
be repaired”
Zeihan is admirably skeptical, there’s nothing to argue with in his analysis. We don’t know. And, we won’t know unless someone admits it or a victim finds out and publicizes the culprit.
Having said that, it is imo worth noting that the destruction happened after a couple of highly visible election results which showed populist forces catching momentum. Those forces are less wedded to a violent end to the RU vs UA conflict. Some might be tempted to cut a deal. Or, call for a negotiated peace.
So (and I readily concur there is not sufficient evidence) one theory still on the table is that some of the players won’t allow the war to stop until RU is defeated, perhaps partitioned but certainly forced to provide its valuable commodities to the West at prices acceptable to the West. If such a group exists then it seems to me a pipeline that is damaged is of more value than a pipeline that can be turned back on at a moment’s notice.
I’m also holding on to a bit skepticism for two things:
1) Is it really the case that just any scuba diver with a pick-ax could do this? Seems pretty terrifying unless you have a fairly sophisticated timed bomb which you can leave in place, then skedaddle. I don’t want to be next to the pipeline when it is breached …
2) Is it really the case that this will be easily repaired? If true, the event becomes a minor curiosity not a Big Deal in my view.
And truly, we don’t know.
Here’s a tweet with an RU-did-it viewpoint:
Joshua Briggs
@Intrinzik78
Replying to @robert_spalding
Brilliant.
First, it puts America on the defensive.
Second, rallies the Russians.
Third, gives Russia cover to take action claiming that we destroyed Russian infrastructure.
Fourth, casts doubt on America among the NATO allies.
And that pipeline was never going to be used again.
I’m also holding on to a bit skepticism for two things:
1) Is it really the case that just any scuba diver with a pick-ax could do this? Seems pretty terrifying unless you have a fairly sophisticated timed bomb which you can leave in place, then skedaddle. I don’t want to be next to the pipeline when it is breached …
2) Is it really the case that this will be easily repaired? If true, the event becomes a minor curiosity not a Big Deal in my view.
JimNorCal:
Excellent questions. I have them myself.
I’m intrigued by Zeihan. I like his fresh slant on history as a function of geography and demography. He seems to have a lot of inside dope concerning the specifics of transportation, oil, fertilizers and so on.
However, he is close-minded and misinformed on Trump and J6, so I don’t trust everything he says. I’m not sure how far down his rabbit hole I’m going to go.
I’m testing what he says. Unfortunately, we’ve reached a point in current events where Zeihan’s main predictions appear to be coming true.
You put a small item with wheels in front of it. Push to spot and return.
You have a lat lon; do you understand the distances involved? Do you understand that whatever you used as a tether would need to be wound around a spool that’s a bit bigger than a few infantrymen? It would be easier to have a fishing trawler drag some explosives on top of the pipeline. I’m not claiming it isn’t sabotaged; I’m initially saying to wait a bit. Oh, and that I doubt Gasprom would do this, especially to claim force majeure. The holders of those loan liens have tens of millions of reasons to send over a DSV with an ROV to inspect the pipelines for natural events. Finally, to your notion of using the enemy’s potential energy against itself; simply lower the pressure inside the pipeline. 200′ of water column above is quite heavy. In fact, it had gas in it to preserve structural integrity. It would require a pump, but those would be available to Gazprom. Lucky to them the weakest point though would be where it is.
Thanks for sharing your expertise, Leland.
A pleasure to read your comments.
@ JJ > “the Democrats seem to want the war to continue. Why? IMO, they like having an excuse to spend money that goes into the pockets of their contributors, the military-industrial complex”
On this point, RedState’s streiff agrees with you, but doesn’t think that (on the whole) that’s a bad thing, because we are cycling out our older, outdated munitions and replacing them with newer, presumably better ones.
Which he thinks would be useful in a war with China.
Which makes me wonder if anyone at Biden Inc has that in mind.
Or war with someone else.
All of which reminds me that the things we don’t know about what goes on in DC and the rest of the world far outnumber the things we do (or think we do).
https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/09/28/us-military-aid-to-ukraine-gives-shows-defense-is-upgrading-us-forces-and-capabilities-as-well-as-defending-ukraine-n634370
The extensive details about the armaments made my eyes glaze over, but this is his conclusion:
Bonus from streiff’s comment thread, by himself, in re the pipeline: “from the way the Russians are denying it, I’m thinking the “he who smelt it dealt it” rule applies.”