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All quiet on the hurricane front

The New Neo Posted on by

Not too many hurricanes so far this year:

Perhaps what is most striking about this season is that we are now at the absolute peak of hurricane season, and there is simply nothing happening. Although the Atlantic season begins on June 1, it starts slowly, with maybe a storm here or there in June, and often a quiet July before the deep tropics get rolling in August. Typically about half of all activity occurs in the 14 weeks prior to September 10, and then in a mad, headlong rush the vast majority of the remaining storms spin up before the end of October.

While it is still entirely possible that the Atlantic basin—which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea—produces a madcap finish, we’re just not seeing any signs of it right now.

Many non-scientist AGW proponents in the popular press are eager to attribute all unusual weather events to AGW, and to consider them bad. They also often fail to differentiate between weather (which this is) and long-term trends. I expect they’ll say that this year’s dearth of hurricanes is due to AGW.

And here’s an article about global warming and hurricanes, from June of 2022, that says that scientists have predicted there will be a decrease in hurricane frequency and in increase in hurricane intensity over time, due to AGW. This season we’ve seen the first but have not seen the second; au contraire. But a season does not a trend make.

Comments

All quiet on the hurricane front — 32 Comments

  1. “Perhaps what is most striking about this season is that we are now at the absolute peak of hurricane season, and there is simply nothing happening.”

    As a cynical New Englander, I predict a swarm of massive nor’easters come winter.

  2. My annoyance is hurricane forecast are based on environmental models. Forecasting like this isn’t a simple “weather forecast” which are typically made only a week out from the actual weather event. Hurricane seasonal models are built on the type of environmental models also used to predict long term environmental phenomenon. This is why NOAA satellites didn’t initially show the type of warming “environmental scientist” expected, because the satellite models were intended to forecast seasons and then were “adjusted” to show AGW warming. Now the new models over predict dangerous weather that doesn’t materialize.

    Don’t believe the models! Not because I say they are good or bad, but because what they predict isn’t materializing. If these were financial models that you personally used to invest your own money; you would have long ago quit trusting them. Why trust them for investing our nation’s economy? [steps down from soap box]

  3. We keep coming back to the definition of science. Unless a theory produces falsifiable predictions, it’s not science. And if those predictions are tested and prove false, the theory is junk. (If the predictions don’t prove false, the theory survives). Richard Feynman said it well (“Cargo Cult Science,” Caltech, 1974).

    The only way to turn these climate change zealots into respectable scientists would be to have them stake all their grant money –and their retirement funds– on concrete verifiable predictions over the near term: months, not decades.

    That’s not going to happen, so I pretty much ignore what they say. Unfortunately too many other people don’t; so here we are.

  4. Obviously, the lack of hurricanes is due to manmade climate change. Clearly mother nature is mad at us and biding her time until she smites us. Don’t get complacent, her wrath is coming! (sarc off)

  5. “…I expect they’ll say that this year’s dearth of hurricanes is due to AGW….”

    And that is “all ye’ need to know”.

    Whatever happens, it’s all the fault of AGW.
    …just as, it’s all the fault of COVID-19…
    …just as, it’s all the fault of Trump…
    …it’s all teh fault of Republicans…
    …just as, it’s all the fault of white supremacists…(and most if not all whites are “supremacists”)…
    …just as, t’s all the fault of the Zionists….
    …etc….

    Leaving one to ask, what, if anything, will prove to be the West’s “Russia-at-the-gates-of-Berlin” moment…?

    (The Swedes appear, as we speak, to have—FINALLY—“woken up” and realized/concluded/understood/decided that they’ve been “mugged” just a few times too many, thank you very much, over the past several decades…. The only question that remains, for them, is whether they’ve woken up “in time”…or whether it’s too late…)

  8. I’ve lived in Florida for years. The evidence of my senses tells me that nothing has changed. The summers are hot, humid, with rain- typically in the afternoons. The hurricanes and tropical storms come some years more than others, some years less. Any other declarations of Greatest Storms in the Greatest Numbers in History are nothing but hyperbole used to bank up an inexact science still in it’s early phases.

    Plus- it’s an extremely lucrative field to be a part of and an easy way to make a good living.

  9. its like that game of fizbin, the made up card game, kirk entertained the gangster on that Chicago planet,

  10. Some wag once kept a website with links to all the hundreds of scientific papers claiming global warming impacts. Global warming causes everything — and it’s always worse!

    Academics will say anything for grant money. And while there isn’t any grant money to study the mating habits of the Siberian zebra, there are always some grants for studying the harmful impacts of global warming on whatever — including the mating habits of the Siberian zebra. And those impacts have been devastating. Wiped them out apparently.

  14. CO2 is in saturation; I.e, diminishing returns. A doubling of CO2 from 400 ppm to 800 ppm will only trap around 3w per square meter heat radiated from earth. That would equate to approximately 1C. At the current rate it would take around 170 years for this doubling to happen.

    IPCC gets more warming by using computer models with positive feedbacks. But the feedbacks are not fully understood, and the models are completely unsuitable for serious policy decisions.

  15. For some sane, and to me, very amusing commentary on tropical storms and weather in general, you should check out Mike’s Weather Page. He does daily videos in the morning called the Daily Brew and you can find them on YouTube. Nice way to sip your coffee in the morning or you can scan through them later in the day. His web site is very heavily loaded with information which is why I like to watch his vlogs as he goes through the relevant info. And he’s just so down to earth.

    His basic take on this so far quiet season is initially a lot of dust off of Africa, and more recently an unusually weak Bermuda high in the Atlantic.

    https://spaghettimodels.com/default.htm

  16. I live close enough to New Orleans that Katrina had water lapping at the door of my house. Everybody (“everybody”) said Katrina’s ferocity was due to global warming, so I had a direct personal interest in that theory. I went to a presentation on the subject by a local climatologist. He went through a lot of variables and the data associated with them and concluded that there was no clear case that global warming was responsible for the severity of the storm or that we should in general expect more and worse hurricanes because of gw. One thing I took away from that is that it’s far too simplistic to say higher average atmospheric temp = higher ocean temp = more and worse hurricanes.

  17. physicsguy — “a lot of dust off of Africa”. So you are suggesting it is a dust up over not much at all.

    And here I thought it was the 17 butterflies in central Florida, plus 3 others near Jacksonville, that flapped their wings about 8 weeks ago, sending just enough air eastward to disturb the circulation patterns in the Atlantic basin. I saw 3 of those climate change denying insect terrorists on my property last week. Maybe those other 3 from Jacksonville visited you recently, too. 🙂

    And you were very smart to have moved to Florida: Heritage released a report showing FL with the highest ranking on their Education Freedom Report Card: https://www.heritage.org/educationreportcard/?utm_source=THF_Email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TheAgenda&mkt_tok=ODI0LU1IVC0zMDQAAAGG0JBIyaD3T7x2mg6J6BdjWNfi2_1fz2RLUDK8VHUHb9WSRkXlj1lnOe3pQ-ntL7YPMSf7fNxIDTiC1nFpzwIdBo2-xrRvxogo5BnHbl-6YIbefu8

    Given the US position on various international rankings, not sure that is necessarily that much to cheer about.

  18. Just gonna drop this here – from May 2022 – it was mentioned in Neo’s first link to ArsTechnica.

    https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

    NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

    For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

    From the ArsTechnica link:

    While it looks like seasonal forecasts for 2022 will probably go bust, it’s important to understand the difference between that activity and the forecasting of actual storms. Seasonal forecasting is still a developing science. While it is typically more right than wrong, predicting specific weather patterns such as hurricanes months in advance is far from an established science.

    I guess only the predictions about climate change aka Anthropogenic Global Warming for decades in advance are “settled” science.

  19. Blast from the past: Nov. 21, 2009
    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/336665-howard-richman/36772-prediction-failures-of-agw-models

    Scientific theories should be judged on their ability to make predictions, so I am always on the lookout for papers that test theories against new data.

    This week, I found an interesting website about climate research. It’s the Science and Public Policy Institute (scienceandpublicpolicy.org). So I looked for new developments and found a collection of papers from November 16, 2009: 450 Peer Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of AGW-Caused Global Warming by Anthony Watts.

    So I looked through the list of papers, hoping to find a paper that tested the predictions of climate change models and found a July 2009 meta-paper that sounded intriguing: Climate Projections: Past Performance No Guarantee of Future Skill? by C. Reifen and R. Toumi published in Geophysical Research Letters.

    Turns out that the 17 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fit the data very well for whatever period they were designed to explain, but do no better than chance when applied to a different period during the 20th Century.
    …
    The authors are not global warming skeptics. Their conclusion is that all of the models need to be taken as a group in order to have predictive power. But there is a much more obvious explanation that jumps out of the page: All of these models have many many variables (i.e., “feedback strengths”) which allow them to fit whatever time period they were designed to fit, but they don’t work when applied to a different time period.
    In other words, the feedback strengths in these models are all free parameters. If you have enough free parameters you can make almost any model fit anything. These models don’t work.

    Furthermore, if the group of models is applied to a different time period as a whole, they don’t work as a whole. Witness the article just posted this week at Spiegel Online: Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out, which points out that global warming appears to have stopped during the 21st Century.

    As best as I can make out, the situation in climate prediction science is the following:

    1. The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory was once the best theory available for explaining climate change.
    2. The new theory of cosmoclimatology, developed since 1996, is now the best theory available for explaining climate change. It involves three factors: cosmic rays, solar activity, and magnetic fields, without requiring innumerable free parameters that must be adjusted. So far it has made excellent predictions whether the period be months, years, or millennia.
    The IPCC has rejected cosmoclimatology, much to their shame. They rely on a paper which supposedly rejects solar-activity as a powerful predictor of climate. Here’s a criticism of that paper from the website (weatheraction.com) of British Astrophysicist Piers Corbin, a cosmoclimatologist who actually gets paid by insurance companies to make his excellent predictions of North Sea storms:

  20. If you are a climate change and/or hurricane geek, you might like the deep dive here.
    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/can-we-detect-change-atlantic-hurricanes-today-due-human-caused

    Bottom line for the tl;dr crowd:

    Therefore, in summary, we cannot yet say with confidence whether there is any detectable human influence on past Atlantic hurricane activity, and this is particularly the case for any greenhouse gas-induced changes. A temporary period of decreasing man-made aerosol emissions likely contributed, along with natural variability, to increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1980, although its relative contribution remains uncertain.

  21. Silly me. I am fairly certain that I was told that they have modeling capability which can predict not just “weather” but “climate” for decades, and that the models are “science” which is “settled.”

    This is unsettling.

  22. Whatever puts money in the pockets of the globalists (which ipso facto removes it from your pockets, peons!) will be the basis of climate forecasting for the foreseeable future. As a pithy meme of late put it:

    I went looking for the science and could not find it. Then I went looking for the money and found the science.

  23. Follow the science fiction….
    – – – – – – – – –
    And in one of the more remarkable “TRANSFORMATIONS” ever conceived…. Liberal intellectuals proudly present:
    Hunter Biden—VICTIM sans pareil…i.e., victim of utterly unscrupulous GOP intrigue, of course…
    (I kid you not. And in some rag called “The Intelligencer”, no less…)…
    “The Sordid Saga of Hunter Biden’s Laptop;
    “The most invasive data breach imaginable is a political scandal Democrats can’t just wish away.”—
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/hunter-biden-laptop-investigation.html
    H/T Blazingcatfur blog.

    The key question being—try hard not to wear out your carpet in fits of hysterical ROFL—WHY OH WHY can’t those dastardly Republicans RESPECT an individual’s RIGHT TO PRIVACY!!?

  24. “Follow the science fiction” (continued)…

    Just a “golden not-so-oldie” (from a year ago):
    “Why Don’t They Believe Us?”—-
    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/vaccines-konstantin-kisin
    Key grafs (RTWT):
    ‘…“How did this happen?” you ask yourself. How could everyone I rely on for good information be so wrong? “It was the Russians,” they tell you. “The Russians did Brexit, and they got Trump elected too.” Imagine that for the next three years, day after day, the media and politicians you still trust keep you up to date on this story of Trump’s collusion with Russia. They tell you the how, when, where, and why: the dossiers, the whistleblowers, the peeing prostitutes. Imagine your desperation for things to somehow make sense again….
    ‘…Imagine your shock, then, when you discover that Brexit had little to do with foreign meddling, and Robert Mueller has very little to report about Trump and the Russians. The collusion story, which dominated your news intake for the better part of three years, slowly dies down. Then it’s gone. No one talks about it anymore. Imagine that bit by bit, you’re starting to feel that the events you were told would not and could not happen not only happened, but happened without some sort of malign interference. Instead, millions of your fellow citizens simply voted for them. In the American case, it turns out many of your fellow citizens who simply voted for Trump come from states that have been devastated by an opioid epidemic enabled by a corrupt system of incentives involving the Food and Drug Administration, doctors, and Big Pharma. (You might want to take note of this. It will come up again later.)…’

    Etc., etc., with “racism” and “gender” all thrown into the mix…

    BTW, the final sentences quoted above might make one wonder about the latest, greatest Fentanyl epidemic foisted upon the nation (he so loves, respects and cherishes) by none other “POTUS”…

  25. No one can predict the future.

    Even people who went to school long enough to get a PhD. (tangent — given the ridiculous cost of college, should we presume that anyone who spends many years getting a PhD certificate must not be very bright?)

    1. Tetlock’s research should be taught and emphasized to every HS and college student. “Experts are no better at predictions than a dart-throwing chimp.” Out of 28,000 predictions, no expert was better than chance.

    2. Michael Crichton’s very solid speech “Why Speculate?” should also be required. Media presents a never-ending parade of experts who pontificate on anything and everything. Yet, they never get called to account. What’s their track record? The reason we get so much opinion blathering is that it makes for cheap production costs for tv. And journalists, in general, do a horrible job of getting the story.

    3. Chaos theory. — Of all the possible topics for prediction, weather is the subject which we KNOW is impossible to predict. Have these Bozos learned nothing of Lorenz? Our ignorance about climate is enormous. We don’t even know if water vapor is a net positive or net negative for climate sensitivity because the complexity is beyond our ability to model. The first step on the path to wisdom is the recognition of our own ignorance. Our society is going backward.

    What is the word for “exponential hubris on steroids”?

    To repeat — we have an unhealthy fetish for “expertise”. Europe is enjoying it in spades this year.

    Finally, we can’t predict the future even if we had perfect data. People need to understand that our data is pathetically bad. We can’t even measure temperature properly. The databases are a mess and they are being manipulated to make them even worse. As an economist just noted this morning, we can’t even measure inflation accurately.

    We can’t predict the future. Heck, we can’t accurately know the past or even properly observe the present.

    We can’t count covid deaths accurately. We can’t count how many people are shot by cops. Actually, we can count that. But society can’t seem to remember the number accurately. Off by a few orders of magnitude is not gonna earn a passing grade. We can’t count how many people are homeless.

    The data is crap. The analysis is crap. The analysts are incompetent. And the government and news media are eager to lie about all of it. Sounds like a winning formula for predicting the future. Which would be impossible even if all the foregoing were perfect.

  26. Yep. Too many humans apparently need to follow & worship “the experts” who are getting rich off their fear & loyalty.
    That’s a magical, powerful feedback loop.
    I wonder what if anything can break it.
    Witnessing the last few years of COVID saga’s experts & their fans, I’m pessimistic.

  27. Just when is weather climate and when is it not?

    Well, if the weather being experienced deviates significantly from the average, AND if the weather affirms the AGW thesis, then, yes folks, the anomalous weather is in fact due to climate change .
    So in this instance the weather IS climate change.

    If the weather is not in accord with the AGW dogma, well then, it’s clear that weather is not climate.

    The beauty of the AGW argument is that it can be used to explain everything. It is in fact, a Theory of Everything (TOE).

    By the way, check out the results climate models produced in the effort to replicate the climate from 1990 to the present (over the last 30 years).
    You will note, in addition to the results being wrong, that the further from 1990 the models “predict” into the future (i.e., up to 2020 or so) the more wrong they get.

    This is especially damning because the modelers KNOW what the correct answers are supposed to be. After all, the temperature/climate records since 1990 are there for all to see and the models can be “tweaked” as necessary and as often to produce the desired result.
    And the results produced are still wrong.
    Geez, I wonder what that means??

    But do not fret ladies and gentlemen; it is these same models that the AGW
    religionists use to predict the climate 50 years or more into the future? And it is the results of these models that is their basis for claiming there is a climate emergency.

    During the latter part of the Medieval Warm Period, one could have reasonably stated that the climate on earth would be permanently warm. After all, the climate had been warm for the previous THREE HUNDRED years.

    Well, that prediction would have been all wrong; the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) crashed and burned , and was very soon followed by the Little Ice Age (LIA) – a period of about 350 years of very cold climate that ended in the mid-1800s.
    The climate has been in fact warming since the mid-1800s.

    But wait you say !!!
    Is not the early 1800s the start of the Industrial Revolution and the beginning of industrial activity, burning of coal, etc.,etc., and adding a zillion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere that caused the LIA to end and produce the warming since then?

    NO!!
    Why?
    Because implicit in this argument is that human activity is the sole cause of warming.
    But how then does one explain the commencement of the MWP which began in about the year 950; about 400 years before the industrial revolution??
    How does one explain all the other warm periods earth has experienced well before humans could have had any possible affect upon climate??

    Dinosaurs were not exactly skidding about on icy terrain trying to stay upright.

    The entire AGW thesis is easily the biggest fraud in world history.

    If it was not, the historical temperature readings – at least here in the USA – would not ALL have been “adjusted” ( i.e., fixed; as in “the horse race was fixed,” yep, fixed by NOAA) downward to make yesteryear’s data appear cooler than that actually recorded and thus make today’s temperatures appear relatively warmer than recent historical readings.
    This allows the AGW folks to say, “see, it hasn’t been this warm for 100 years.”

    I will guess that the vast majority of ordinary folks either do not question the AGW thesis or just believe it; once again re-affirming the validity of Joseph Goebbel’s remark, ” repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.”

    For all those under the age of 40 or so, irrespective of your level of education, Joseph Goebbels was Hitler’s propaganda minister. ( I will assume everybody knows who Hitler was, but I could wrong about that.)

  28. One problem with all of the AGW/CC BS is their failure to predict much of ANYTHING correctly.

    “The Validity of a Science lies in its ability to predict”.
    – The Schwartzberg Test –

    AGW/CC is running somewhat worse than Jeane Dixon.

    Let’s see:

    “England will never see another White Christmas”.
    … followed by two years of heavy snowfall before Xmas.

    “Western Australia will see drought conditions”
    … followed by heavy flooding the next three years.

    “Storm intensity will get worse”
    This was predicted more than 20 years ago. No statistically significant uptick in overall severity in that time in EITHER tornadoes OR hurricanes. This is particularly relevant to the idiotic claim cited in the OP.

    There’s also the general notion of AGW which has been sufficiently observably BS even to the common man that they had to change the name to the infinitely more vague “Climate Change”.
    In winter of 2001,as I recall (may have been 2002), they had snow fall in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This was the first time snow had fallen in Riyadh in all — repeat ALL — of recorded history.

    My own personal favorite, though, was after the statistical outlier year when we had Katrina, et al, make landfall… “This is the new norm… we have to get used to this.”

    It’s my favorite because it was then followed by the longest time period of no class-3 or above hurricanes making landfall along the entire eastern US seaboard, from the Rio Grande to Maine, since the coastal population was prevalent enough to make any records reliable, ca. 1820. The previous record was from like 1860-1867. IIRC, we beat that record from 2006+ by 2 whole years.

    There is no validity to AGW/CC.

    The final straw in my own view lies in two never-noted points of data:

    1 — the fact that they established a sensing system to measure ocean temperatures at various depths, which had not been possible before about 2000. It had not, for its first 10-15 years, shown any sign of increasing ocean temperatures, which is pretty much absolutely required for any kind of actual AGW — cyclonic storm energy, particularly hurricanes, are driven by the water temperatures at the surface, but there is a general overall tendency for that to be carried deeper by convection and radiation (yes, there are thermoclines which prevent smooth distribution, but they don’t stop it). So, before the earth can “heat up”, the oceans – which are a truly MASSIVE heat sink — would have to show signs of warming, as well. Note that I will challenge any claims that this has changed in the last 5y or so, because I no longer trust those keeping and massaging the data. I don’t refuse to accept such an assertion, i just demand hard, serious proof that it is happening. And the observable evidence, which would be increased storm intensity, is clearly not happening.

    2 — Since I live in FL, I am aware of something many are not. There is a thing called the “Citrus Line”. The typical orange tree has about 20y worth of productivity. Hard frosts substantially damage those trees, and reduce their fruit production and the quality of the fruit. So, ideally, if you have a grove of citrus trees, you don’t want to plant it in a zone which has hard frosts more than once in that 20y period. The “Citrus Line” is the break point where they generally don’t create groves to produce large amounts of citrus (you can, of course, grow individual trees, but that’s not a production/ROI issue).

    I spotted an article about 20y ago that discussed this, without noting its significance to AGW — the Citrus Line, in the 1880s, was up north of the Georgia-Florida border. It is now 300 miles south, near Orlando, in the middle of the state. In fact, I can recall when there were citrus groves along the Florida Turnpike to the north of Orlando, as far as the eye can see. Not any more.

    Proof? No. But enough collected relevant observations to justify ample challenge to the orthodoxy, for sure.

  29. Thanks, ObloodyHell and JohnTyler, for the climate history.

    Last week a friend, who is a Democrat, commented to me that there had been ZERO tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean this year, and that that was the opposite of what had been predicted by the experts. (So far, just fact-based comments by him, though I could have debated him about whether the prognosticators were experts.)

    Then he said that the tropical storm prediction for 2022 was wrong because of man made global warming.

    So I commented, “Is there nothing that AGW cannot do?”

    He made ZERO response, which is the opposite of what I would have predicted he would do. For that I blame AGW.

  30. The temps from the beginning of serious industrialization–say, ca 1850–rise at a famously fast rate. Line graph goes nearly vertical.
    Like to know if there were corrections for the urban heat island effect.

    Various reports say NOAA has strict protocols for the placement of its sensors to avoid UHI effect. Over 90% of their sensors’ placement violates their protocols. Now, if you don’t move the thing and development moves to meet it…. If you do make an effort to stay ahead of development, you’re going to be busy.

    I think it was WUWT which reported this gives an artificial boost of half a degree. Which, in current circumstances, is pretty big.

  32. “That’s a magical, powerful feedback loop.”

    Indeed, an absolute marvel to behold….
    It’s called the OOFA** loop—a top-secret “BIDEN”-weapon, which, together with across-the-board media/info-tech support/cover/interference/misdirection is practically invincible.

    ** Observe, Orient, Fabricate, Act

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