The vagaries of a parliamentary system may allow Netanyahu to return to power
A defection means that Bennett’s government has lost its fragile majority:
Plunging the government into crisis, coalition whip Idit Silman announced Wednesday that she is quitting and will instead work to form a new, right-wing government without a resort to new elections.
Silman’s announcement, which she said was due to the “harming” of Jewish identity in Israel, means that the coalition no longer has a majority….
According to reports, Silman did not tell Prime Minister Naftali Bennett — head of the Yamina party of which she is a member — of the move in advance, leaving the premier to learn through media reports that he had lost his government majority.
Ouch.
In the US, such a defection would only threaten the leadership of the legislative branch involved. In Israel and other nations with a parliamentary system, it threatens the ruling executive branch as well. Here’s the way it could work:
The first option would be for it to pass a law to dissolve the Knesset. To pass, this would require the support of at least 61 of the 120 members of Knesset…
With the Knesset in recess, scheduling a vote on such a bill is thought to be unlikely before the weeklong Passover festival which begins at the end of next week, but could be arranged soon after that…
The second option would be for Likud to form an alternative government in the current 24th Knesset, although it appears it would struggle to do so…
Likud ran a scathing, months-long online campaign against Yamina joining the government and ousting Netanyahu, and Silman was a key target.
The lawmaker was frequently harassed, and she said she was physically attacked at a gas station; at the time, Netanyahu suggested that Silman could have made up the story of the assault in order to tar opponents of the coalition.
The article goes on to indicate that a significant number of former allies of Bennett’s government have turned against him, not just Silman.
As for Netanyahu’s possible return, here’s the scoop on that:
On Wednesday, Bibi called on additional members of the ruling coalition to defect and form a new government with him at the head. There is a fair chance this will happen. It’s not only right-wingers in Bennett’s anti-Bibi coalition might be tempted. Ambitious and frustrated centrists (Defence Minister Benny Gantz’s name comes up most often) who could give a new Likud government a wider public base may also wish to join.
If no one else defects, a 60-60 split will paralyse the Knesset (unlike in the US Congress, there is no tie-breaking vote). That would almost certainly lead to a new election in the summer, the fifth in the past four years. Netanyahu will be the candidate of Likud; polls show him by far the most popular party leader. He faces three indictments on criminal charges of fraud and corruption which rumble on. But those indictments are not looking as solid as the prosecution thought, and even if he is convicted, he could appeal, dragging out the process while staying in office.
In my opinion the prosecution always knew the accusations were garbage, but felt it to be politically expedient to bring the charges, hoping to turn voters against Netanyahu at the right moment. Of course, even if Netanyahu or his party return to power, they face a hostile Biden administration
Vagaries is quite apt!
Israel’s system is far more complex and nuanced than most parliamentary systems. Add to that many strong personalities and, it appears, a good deal of infighting and backstabbing and it becomes almost inscrutable to outsiders.
Bottom line: I hope Bibi is able to return. And soon.
Biden could appoint Ilhan Omar to be ambassador. That would get her out of Minnesota.
Looking forward to Bibi’s return to power.
Bennett’s coalition was a ghastly chimera and it’s surprising it has lasted as long as it did. Bennett has exposed himself as an opportunist, so it would be agreeable if his party were electorally destroyed.
If I understand correctly, there’s an adequate majority for a starboard government, but Avigdor Lieberman and others are fed up with Bibi and refuse to co-operate with him. Maybe it’s time for the 73 year old Bibi to retire or repair to local politics.
Israel’s system is far more complex and nuanced than most parliamentary systems.
Not institutionally. They have a disagreeable electoral system and a great many cross-cutting cleavages in their political life, so you have about 20 political parties in the legislature. Also, Israeli Jews have on average terrible manners and political discourse is suffused with vitriolic rhetoric.
Art Deco:
Terrible manners? Do they not use the correct fork or something? Yes, they argue. And “vitriolic rhetoric” is a not-unheard-of part of the democratic process in most non-dictatorships.
The Japanese have exquisite manners, and yet they’ve had this sort of thing in their legislature:
Do they not use the correct fork or something?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israelis-are-blunt-and-rude-you-got-a-problem-with-that/
John Derbyshire wrote some time back that he admires Israel from afar but had been told by journalists that the press tends to favor the Arab cause because on a mundane basis in Israel the Arabs are much more pleasant. My rather phlegmatic brother toured Israel in 1984 with an Israel-born Jew, who was teaching him bits of Hebrew along the way (“I figure It’s meant to be shouted”).
So it goes in Israel today, which one may suppose Israelis notice to the goverment’s detriment, there now having been over the last two weeks a series of deadly terror attacks undertaken by Israeli arab citizen Islamists: https://nypost.com/2022/04/07/2-killed-8-wounded-in-tel-aviv-shooting/
Israeli arab citizen Islamists:
It’s not clear from the article what political segment the attackers are from. There is an Islamist vote in Israel, but it’s a fairly weak segment of the Arab political spectrum. If I’m not mistaken, it’s strongest among southern Bedouin.
Both previous attacks prior to today were by Israeli arab citizen Islamists. So, yes, I am prejudging the probable identity of today’s attacker(s). Big fucking deal, eh?
https://www.ibtimes.sg/hamas-chief-ismail-haniyeh-lauds-terror-attack-israel-that-killed-five-people-tel-aviv-suburb-63655
Here’s a discussion which includes some quotations from the boss of Hamas. Another source has this quotation:
““The resistance against the occupation and the soldiers is continuous and escalating. It is a natural response in defense of our people and our sanctuaries. We congratulate the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) for the heroic operation that took place this evening, in the middle of Tel Aviv, and led to the killing of a number of occupying soldiers and Zionist settlers,” the statement said.
“The continuation of the occupations terrorism and crimes, and its attempts to Judaize Jerusalem, and to make sacrifices in the courtyards of the Al Aqsa Mosque to build their alleged temple, on the so-called Easter holiday, without which blood and bullets stand. Our people will not allow that, and our resistance will stand by anyone who thinks of violating our sanctity and our sanctuary, and the days bear witness to that,” the statement said. ”
You’ll notice that all four attacks occurred inside the 1949 armistice lines and that two of them took place in cities founded by Jews. That’s what they mean by ‘the occupation’.
Re Japanese “brawl” video: One guy picked up a chair to throw but changed his mind. A woman struck someone with the bottom of her clenched hand. Someone threw shredded paper. Guess there were no pillows handy.
The major problem with Israel’s parliamentary system is that there is no geographic representation. You vote for a party, not a candidate. The more votes that party gets, the more members of the Knesset they get. Since MKs don’t represent any specific geographic region, they are not accountable to voters and their allegiance is to the party.
Silman was reportedly promised the 10th spot on the Likud list and a ministerial post should they be able to form a government.
The American founding fathers were brilliant in putting most of the legislative power in the House of Representatives, making House members represent a specific district of voters, and putting them up for election every two years, keeping them accountable.
Israel has to deal with a hostile US regime, some what similar to the Obama regime. A crisis is coming if Biden surrenders to the Iranians with a new agreement on nuclear weapons. That is likely.
“…if Biden surrenders to the Iranians …”
Actually, “Biden” doesn’t even have to OFFICIALLY surrender to the Iranians.
(Since “he”‘s already done it…and any “deal” that might be made doesn’t have to be ratified by Congress, along the model of the precedent, JPCOA.)
The whole thing can just continue along the path it is going—with no “deal” ever made (though it WILL likely happen)—while Iran keeps on doing what it’s doing….
….keeps on developing what it’s developing—“deal” or no “deal”—while “Biden” can always claim, “But we were PREVENTED (by you know who!!) from getting the deal done…Not our fault. We did our best, etc., etc….”
IOW, at this point, it doesn’t matter. Iran gets what it wants. “Biden” gets to cover “his” backside…with—special BONUS—Israel and its supporters getting the blame for “blocking” the “deal”….
Win-win “Biden”/Mullah style….
(Think of it as an inertia-entropy continuum…)
@Neo er are you sure that is Japan’s Parliament?! Cause at 20 seconds onwards that’s the Taiwan flag behind them. And it sure looks like Legislative Yuan than the Japan’s National Diet?
As for Israel’s change in government I’m Malaysian and we had this happen to us just before covid hit. Which really sucks cause when our election happened in 2018 we had finally kicked out the ruling government of over 50 years. Then to have it all change back due to the same vagaries of a Parliamentary System in under 2 years. Then to go into country wide lockdown for almost 2 years.
My sympathy for Israel, it’s as special kind of kick in the jewels to have this level of uncertainty in times like this.
I was wondering about that myself.
Since it is actually Taiwan that has a vigorous “tradition” of “kinetic” legislation.
One might even call it a “muscular democracy”….
(Though Japan does have “traditions” of its own—at least on occasion—such as the disembowelment of legislators by nationalist-novelist-inspired acolytes…)
@Barry Meislin those Japanese Nationalist to give it a modern phrase loved to LARP the Military government of Japan prior to WW2. I remembered watching one of their rallies when I visited Japan in 2017 with my wife. It was just a small group of guys around their flags with mic’s while everybody just ignored and walked pass them.
Studying some of their literature I found it interesting how much of their view points and propaganda is taken from the Japanese Army WW2 side of view and not the Japanese WW2 Navy viewpoint.
“…Terrorist eliminated…” (in a mosque in Jaffa. Reported at approx. 06:00 Friday morning, Israel time, i.e., GMT+2)
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/325450
Chang, now that you mention it, I wonder if that is because, for all its initial successes, the failure of the IJN at the Battle of Midway was—fortunately—the beginning of the end of Japan’s imperial dream (though it would take a lot of incredibly hard fighting and two A-bombs to finally achieve that…and even if one might argue, with justice, that attacking Pearl Harbor was what set in motion Imperial Japan’s ultimate demise).
So I wonder if the navy was scapegoated because of that…while the army—especially because of its ferocious defense of, e.g., Iwo Jima, was not similarly “tainted”.
– – – – – –
Update:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/tel-aviv-terrorist-killed-after-shootout-with-with-police-special-forces/
@Barry Meislin I feel it’s the other way around. Post WW2 the remaining IJN officers embraced the changes and thus they were not taken out of the halls of power like the Japanese soldiers of WW2, it’s very complicated but I will try to explain.
Basically the IJN was looked upon with some pride by the Japanese people post WW2 while the army and it’s actions in WW2 was a shame they wanted to forget. The army veterans were angered, and their views and teachings was embraced by the disenfranchised in Japan.
That’s as basic as I can summarize 70 years of a political movement.
Makes sense. Indeed, the army WAS brutal. Thanks!
Chang Yee Fong:
Seems to be Japan.
The American founding fathers were brilliant in putting most of the legislative power in the House of Representatives, making House members represent a specific district of voters, and putting them up for election every two years, keeping them accountable.
The British Commons and the lower chambers of the colonial assemblies were elected in single-member districts. It wasn’t some brainstorm of James Madison’s.
The most severe problem with Israel’s electoral system is that national list PR in a social context like Israel’s generates abnormal fragmentation in the party system and in the legislature. You can ameliorate that by putting arbitrary lower limits on electoral support in order to obtain a seat (which Germany did in 1949) or you can make use of geographic representation to promote aggregation. Then you have the challenge of containing problems associated with gerrymandering as well as selecting a tabulation system. One utility of geographic representation is that it provides an avenue for constituent service and for candidates to be selected by caucuses of local party members rather than by bosses. (An avenue only. You continue to have candidates parachuted in by bosses in Canada and Britain and France).
Neo, that first link (@4:37) is confused—American media in action!?….
The broadcasters mention “Japan” but the video itself is labeled “Taipei”….
And in fact, for “robust” parliamentarism, Taiwan is THE go-to location.
(Though The Kingdom of Jordan’s not too shabby either…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FT-VETdBukQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJAeJQx_WYs
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1994401/middle-east )
I think it is in Taiwan. You’ll see the CBS feed is labeled ‘Taipei’. The people who assemble copy for local news anchors aren’t any stronger in geography than Jay Leno’s interview subjects.
Art Deco; Barry Meislin:
Do a search for something like “fight in Japanese parliament” and you’ll find many videos and many articles about it. That video I put up was labeled as having been from that particular fight. I certainly don’t know, but the point is that there was such a fight and plenty of reports about it as well as videos.
@neo I think Art Deco, Barry Meislin and I are just being pedantic. I personally to believe the event happened in Japanese parliament. I remember seeing it myself in the news in Malaysia years ago, so there is no doubt in my mind the crux of your point that even the polite Japanese Parliament got physical.
It’s just that in the specific video you linked the CBS Philly showed the Taiwanese Assembly instead of the Japanese parliament and to me at least it just reeks of laziness and the closet racism I observe from these so called journalists. To paraphrase Chris Tucker “All y’all look alike!”