Home » Open thread 3/11/22

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Open thread 3/11/22 — 18 Comments

  1. Knopfler’s voice is going, but the fingers are still as agile as ever.

    Plus, the title track of that album is the most under-appreciated song on it (although I prefer the album before it, Love Over Gold).

    It’s a good start to the thread.

  2. This morning while getting ready for the day, I had a couple of thoughts.
    1. Is it possible that the WH thinks that as soon as the War in Ukraine is over, say 20 days, inflation will disappear, oil and gas prices will recede.
    Not to say they won’t keep pushing of EV’s, etc.
    Biden then can take credit with all the good things happening.
    2. I don’t think a “No Fly Zone” would be a good thing. However, with Putin talking about and I believe implementing the insertion of Syrian fighters would that be more of a justification for the imposition of a NFZ?
    I don’t think I have read where any NATO or other country has raised the issue. No talk about a Red Line over this.
    3. Did Paski give the Green Light to Putin to use Chemical Warfare?
    There is talk that Biden gave Putin the GL with his “minor incursion” comment. Is this the same?

  3. Reports are that the Iran deal talks are suspended for a time, because Russia is demanding that its dealings with Iran be immune to sanctions. The Biden team is fouling up everything it touches. If it fails to get this awful agreement, this is a failure which would be a good thing.

  4. SHIREHOME,

    Regarding #1, no. It’s just stalling and diversion. Their stated plan is to get Americans off of oil and coal. They know they are the cause, but they don’t want to remind Americans, so they divert. If the war in Ukraine ends (and, please God, let it be so) they will shift to something else.

    They lie to us for our own good. We aren’t smart enough to understand the benefit of their plans for us, so they pacify us until the glorious paradise they are building back better for us comes to fruition, and is plain for all to see.

  5. Rufus T. firefly says, may the war end soon, please God.

    My wishes, too. But the consequences of not ending soon keep piling up, at the tranzi’s wish to strangle capitalism and proceed to pure fascism. Here’s Michael Every who writes a column for a Dutch bank, Rabibank.

    He notes how tied up in fertiliser the conflict is, and that Putin got his future sources set. This is needed to grow wheat — and Ukraine and Russia export, or used to export bit chunks of it like around 20%. Each.

    Now, PPI in Italy is up 41%. That’s before the price of wheat shot up. You know, wheat for pasta?

    Every concludes, announcing that the model of liberal capitalism — which I’ll add halved world poverty from the 1980s in just 24 years, and then halved is AGAIN in the eriod from the 00s in only 10 years— is now dead.

    He doesn’t quite say “fascism.” But calling the new phase state led capitalism is pretty much the same thing. The neutral Rule of Law where supply and demand work together to meet consumers needs is dead.

    EVERY:

    “Relatedly, Bloomberg says ‘Hedge Funds Walk Away From LME After $3.9bn Trades Torn Up”, where a fund manager is quoted as saying it is too risky to trade. Nickel trading, like the Moscow stock market, is still not open on the Hong-Kong owned LME; the Exchange anticipates it will set a maximum limit-up and limit-down for all outright contracts when trading resumes; Bloomberg says Xiang Guangda, the Chinese tycoon facing a multi-billion dollar loss on his short nickel position, is determined to stick with it, which is described as ‘a characteristic display of self-confidence’; and @CliffordAsness of Principal AQR Capital Management tweets: ‘And the cheaters win. @LME_news please note, I’m accusing you of reversing trades to save your favoured cronies and robbing your non-crony customers. Everyone who trades should know what you did. You got lawyers, I’m ready. Bring it slime balls.’

    “There is a direct link to Putinism here. The price surge in nickel was due to him invading Ukraine; and the concept of open global trade in commodities based on politically neutral supply and demand, and transparent prices, rules, and regulations is deeply undermined –as with fertilizer– in this case, to prevent massive losses by what some see as a politically powerful client.

    “That is perhaps the end of Western liberal global capitalism as we knew it: and the birth of a zero-sum geopolitical bareknuckle “markets go where we want them to” global state capitalism.

    “And, yes, dear readers, the West paved the way here with its own past actions. The folks who will look past this chaos to US household wealth rising $5,279bn in Q4 (tell that to the people who can’t fill up their car, buy food, or pay rent!) introduced globalization, QE, ‘Fed puts’, the ‘Too Big to Jail’ 2008 response, and even historical efforts to ‘corral’ key commodity prices geopolitically when needed.

    “But that was always sold as the exception. It is now risks becoming the global rule – and with the West on the wrong side of it.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-perhaps-end-western-liberal-global-capitalism-we-knew-it

    So. Goodbye liberal capitalism. Hello record setting inflation and greater than ever protections for the connected Ruling Class to exploit everyone. State requires it.

    I never expected to pine for the craziness of 2019. But here we are. And I am.
    Who’s with me?

  6. Regarding TJ’s comment above; I lack the economic background to fully understand and evaluate the assertions made, that said a bit of research reveals that Russia does have its own set of economic sanctions to impose upon the West. And they may be as effective as the article posits.

    Below quotes from the article TJ linked to…

    “Crucially, Russia and Belarus have imposed a fertilizer ban.”

    Turns out that Russia is the #1 exporter of fertilizer as well as wheat and nickel. China is the #2 exporter of fertilizer.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278057/export-value-fertilizers-worldwide-by-country/

    Fertilizer is crucial to maintaining the world’s needed levels of plant harvests.

    “Understand this: Russian agri commodities are being used an economic weapon rather than a neutral exception to that war, as the West tried to achieve.”

    I suspect that our current 7.9% inflation, the highest in 40 years is just the beginning…

  7. I guess we might not want to continue turning corn into ethanol, or covering Nebraska with solar panels after all?

    And regards fertilizer, are they referring to phosphates, or nitrates? It makes a difference. Costs are one factor which determines whether a resource can be produced. Green regulators are another.

  8. I suspect that our current 7.9% inflation, the highest in 40 years is just the beginning…

    Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. You can have all manner of flux in particular markets without a general increase in the price level. We have inflation because the Federal Reserve Board refuses to contain the growth in monetary aggregates. As to why the Trump appointees who make up the majority of the Board are behaving this way I have yet to hear an explanation.

  9. The green regulations are obviously a significant factor.

    Inflation is both a monetary phenomenon and potentially a supply and demand phenomenon.

    Reduced supply with same demand = inflation.

    “As to why the Trump appointees who make up the majority of the Board are behaving this way I have yet to hear an explanation.”

    Trump famously appointed lots of people who turned out to be less sharing of Trump’s POV than they’d led him to believe. Uniparty operatives?

  10. @ TJ > “I never expected to pine for the craziness of 2019. But here we are. And I am. Who’s with me?”

    We’re all in this together, aren’t we?
    Asking for a friend….

    https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.dJrS6tUKaXHptHkWSdWfPAHaEv%26pid%3DApi%26h%3D160&f=1

    I’m working up a Bingo Card that has a square for each of the things none of us had on ours since 2015.
    Or maybe 2008.

    Of course, 2020 was very popular as a stand-alone year.
    https://ruinmyweek.com/memes/2020-bingo-card-meme/
    https://ruinmyweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-bingo-card-meme-1-1.jpg
    https://ruinmyweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-bingo-card-meme-4-1.png

    In the meantime — choose your preferred version.

    https://i0.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2021/01/Miss-me-2.png?w=1160&ssl=1

    https://media.notthebee.com/articles/article-622a202e9f1a7.gif

  11. @ Geoffrey > “In other VERY important news…“Jordan Peterson – Warning: Bill 67”
    Transcript is posted below the video.

    A warning to citizens of Ontario and Canada: Bill 67, which purports to be nothing but an “anti-racist” bill, is in fact the most pernicious and dangerous piece of legislation that any Canadian government has attempted to put forward.

    It will make mandatory the subversion of the entire education system in Ontario (K-12 as well as colleges and universities) to the radically leftist doctrines known as critical theory–a thoroughly anti-western ideology, both post-modern and Marxist in its derivation, based on the idea that all our extant institutions are racist, sexist and discriminatory in their essence.

    (very long, with details and classic Petersonian critique)

    DeSantis is working hard to keep that sort of thing out of Florida.
    https://notthebee.com/article/boom-florida-just-passed-the-stop-woke-act-which-prevents-the-teaching-of-crt-theories-in-florida-schools

    https://notthebee.com/article/watch-ron-desantis-stand-up-to-disney-and-other-woke-corporations-pressuring-the-him-to-veto-anti-grooming-parental-rights-bill

    Let’s hope more Red States, like Idaho, get aboard the Governor’s amusement park ride rather than Disney’s.
    https://notthebee.com/article/idaho-house-passes-bill-that-would-make-transgender-surgery-on-kids-punishable-by-life-in-prison

    The Blue states are a hopeless cause, unless the PTA Parents and the “white nationalist Hispanics” get the upper hand soon.

    https://notthebee.com/article/our-website-was-made-for-stories-like-these

  12. Under Bill 67 if you’re accused, you’re guilty as charged.

    No evidence needed, the accusation itself is the proof.

    Thought crimes are next.

    Irredeemables must be identified and examples made of them.

    The Gulags await.

    Hyperbole?

    Every time communism takes over, its the same M.O.

  13. Trump famously appointed lots of people who turned out to be less sharing of Trump’s POV than they’d led him to believe. Uniparty operatives?

    Except that business Republicans aren’t notable for wishing to inflate the currency (although Arthur Burns, the wretchedly incompetent Fed chairman of the 1970s, was out of the business Republican stable).

  14. “As to why the Trump appointees who make up the majority of the Board are behaving this way I have yet to hear an explanation.”

    Always look to either self-interest and/or personal (actual vs public) ideology when people behave in a manner that appears to be contrary to their expressed ‘principles’.

    Not all, perhaps many of those Trump appointed and tolerated were not, in fact “business Republicans”. But to obtain Trump’s approval, they had to present themselves as ‘simpatico’ with Trump’s aims.

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