Who will control Afghanistan now, and why should we care?
When we started our post-9/11 military operations in Afghanistan I think most Americans knew why we did it despite the obvious pitfalls and drawbacks. The aim was to dismantle the terrorist training camps and pursue the leaders of al Qaeda to capture or kill them, and to serve notice to other terrorists who would harm the US that their fate would be the same.
That part was the simple part, and even executing it was relatively simple (although it took many years to get Bin Laden himself). But what to do after those initial stages was hard, very hard. At first we tried to transform the country in order to stabilize it, but it became clear early on – absolutely clear after a couple of years, but at least somewhat clear even before that – that this was doomed to failure. However, I always thought we’d need to maintain some presence there for many decades – perhaps many many many decades, but it seemed as though it could be done without a huge presence, once the first couple of years had passed.
But many people wanted us totally out. Most were on the left, but some were on the right. One of those on the right was Trump. My personal opinion is that he was always going to have to keep some residual forces there, and that he was seeing that fact more and would continue to see it more and more as time passed. Whatever he would have done, he would have made every effort to protect all Americans and to give the terrorists notice that they would meet with swift and violent retaliation if they went back to attacking America or its allies. I am virtually certain he never would have come to the sort of backwards and completely counterproductive decisions the Biden administration has continually made.
But Trump was voted (or pushed) out of office before we got to see what would happen if Trump had been in charge of whatever happened in Afghanistan over time. And Trump’s successor Biden and company made sure that the withdrawal has occurred in the worst possible way.
So that’s where we stand today. We are worse off than before 9/11 or even immediately afterwards, because despite our internal divisions and disagreements back then, we were not as bitterly divided and demoralized as now. We had a government that was at least inclined to protect us, allies who might not have adored us but who at least basically trusted us, and we were willing to back up our threats with action so those threats were not seen as idle.
Now all that is gone. Every bit of it. And it was done in the same way a person is said to go bankrupt: first gradually, then suddenly. It took the present administration to effect the “suddenly” part.
Which leads us to the question in the title of this post: who will control Afghanistan now, and why should we care? My answer is that Afghanistan is now already a fertile refuge and training ground for international terrorists of the Islamic variety. It also has just become a huge symbol of American defeat, and that acts as extra motivation for those terrorists who want to be part of the glory.
So Afghanistan is quite the prize for the winner of what I assume will be an internecine war for control there among all the groups vying for position. Whichever one wins – unless by some miracle some relative “good guys” regroup and manage to take control – you can be pretty sure the results will be something awful not only for human rights in Afghanistan, but for our own safety and stability and that of the entire western world or what’s left of it.
And that was why we were there all these years.
As Stephen Green asks in this piece: “Does this mean another Afghan Civil War, this time between two factions over which can be the most horrible?”
My answer is: I believe so.
[NOTE: Please read this piece by Austin Bay discussing our engagement with Afghanistan and whether it actually was a “20-year war” as so many said.]
So Afghanistan is quite the prize for the winner of what I assume will be an internecine war for control there among all the groups vying for position.
In the last couple days Oliver North has been talking about a significant number of the previous Afghan troops and aircraft and other materiel had fled to some war lord group whose name I don’t remember. North specifically said that this was good news. I imagine he hopes that these people could get support from the U.S., but I doubt Joe Biden would be interested.
Good overview Neo. I keep thinking about a book I read a few years ago, “Six Frigates” by Ian Toll. It’s ancient history and not super relevant, but it gives a good picture of America as a pipsqueak country and the terrible issues that resulted.
That would be the first bit of good news this week.
If anyone really gets control, it’ll be an historic first. And it won’t be just two factions. The Taliban will be sort of top dog, in that they’ll be stronger than anyone else, but that’s likely as far as it will go. And it probably not last. Some other group will eclipse them eventually.
The next question is whether the Taliban, which I presume does not have complete control of the situation, will extort money, support, and diplomatic recognition from the Biden admin. under the guise of establishing control.
It’s going to be hell on earth for much of Afghanistan for a while while these competing groups try to destroy each other. Really nothing the US can do about it. Good luck to the Northern Alliance and the rebels in the Panjshir Valley.
Meanwhile our military and intelligence need to stop looking under rocks for alleged white supremacists here at home and focus on radical black supremacists, radical anarchists, and radical Islamists among us. (There are, in fact, white supremacists left; their numbers are few and they shouldn’t be too hard to keep track of.)
Angelo Codevilla has thoughts on the length and breadth of the US experience in Afghanistan.
https://americanmind.org/memo/graveyard-of-narratives/
Lee Smith likewise understands how and why the US has done what it has in Afghanistan, and what it meant to the power structure in the US, and their delusions
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/assabiya-lee-smith
Both are closer to the mark than the popularly accepted narratives.
Oh boy. Gen. McKenzie of Central Command just now said that they are sharing intelligence and information with the Taliban so that the Taliban can beef up security outside the airport perimeter and help stop things like suicide bombings against our soldiers. Beyond belief.
TommyJay:
How utterly reassuring.
From my perspective, the main issue with this 20 year presence was the messaging about what we were attempting to accomplish.
If our goal was “guard duty” as Austin Bay frames it, meaning basically maintaining a minimal presence in order to prevent Afghanistan from reverting to its pre-911 state as a haven and breeding ground for Islamic terrorists, then I feel that wasn’t made abundantly clear to most Americans. And that argument certainly wasn’t clearly made by any administration.
Instead we seemed to be attempting to turn Afghanistan into a modern western Democracy (the infamous “nation building”) with all the rights and liberties of such a state… which evidently was always a fools errand according to most serious people who spent any time among the people there.
ENonapod:
Had you been keeping up with the messages about our mission for the most recent decade? I hadn’t. I don’t know what our official stated goal was in recent years. I am sure that keeping the form of government Afghanistan had since our post-9/11 intervention there was part of it. But that’s no longer “nation-building,” it’s “stabilizing.” I’d have to go back and look at years of messaging.
I agree that there was too much emphasis on “getting out,” as though it would be possible to do that 100% and that it would be ok. People got the impression our withdrawal would have no bad repercussions for the US. It was politically expedient to give that message.
Had you been keeping up with the messages about our mission for the most recent decade? I hadn’t.
Me either. But in my defense, I can say fairly confidently that neither have most people that I have talked with over the years. I consider myself a pretty well informed person who keeps up with events. I can’t recall any sitting president or administration spokesperson outlining specifically what we were doing there and why it was necessary. If an argument was presented for “stabilizing” rather than “nation building” (or whatever) was made by the powers that be, I can’t recall it. But I ain’t omniscient of course. I’m willing to be proven wrong.
My opinion while the Taliban might be largest military force, Islam spawns splinter groups of Jihadists all which have no higher command. Probably many other smaller military players and commanders not under higher command.
So, Biden just said, and he repeated himself, that “we will get every American that we can” get out in the stipulated time frame. So, no commitment to get every American, whatever it takes, apparently. (He said it again, just now, at 5:40 pm EDT.)
Afghanistan will revert back to tribal warlords and competing clan warlords of the biggest tribe of Pashtuns (~40%).
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/ethnic-groups-of-afghanistan.html
Pashtun make up the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, followed by Tajiks, Hazara, Uzbek, Aimaks, Baloch, and others.
It’s likely to follow the Somalia warlord gov’t structure, but with more central Taliban control.
And actual Islamic unity – including hatred of American foreign devils and their silly PRIDE support of gays, lesbians and feminists.
I’m trying to get prepared, in my mind, for mass murders and mass rapes of Americans and Afghans who supported America’s mission. Already there are terrible reports of educated Afghan women being blinded.
If the evacuation fails to get 1 million people out, it was a failure. They’ve had 6 months to do so; 150,000/month, or 40,000 week (for the last 25 weeks). Like so many over-credentialed college graduates, they expect to cram for the exam the night before and it will all be OK.
This “unrealistic” level of evacuation is why Trump would NOT have fully left – but would be likely to support Afghan fighters more.
Why, after 20 years, were there so few Afghans able to do maintenance on aircraft? Trump failed here, as did Obama and Bush, but also hugely Biden.
Every voter who voted Biden voted IN FAVOR of this.
Conservatives need to constantly remind the voters this level of problem is Biden’s fault.
The crowds at the airport – Biden’s fault.
The bombs in the crowds at the airport – Biden’s fault.
The killing, terror, and turning back of people wanting to join the crowds, despite the bombs near the airport – Biden’s fault.
The claim it’s not Biden’s fault – another Big Lie by Dems who have being lying to themselves and others for 5 years. Dems supporting lies is also partially Biden’s fault, who himself has been telling lies.
He’s sick sick sick and I’m feeling worse as I write and think about the near future.
Angelo Codevilla has thoughts on the length and breadth of the US experience in Afghanistan.
He used to produce more engaging material.
So in just a few hours its gone from “If they want to leave, we will help get them out,” to “If they want to leave, we will help get them out, if we can.”
I wonder where it’ll be by tomorrow?
I voted for W twice as governor and twice as president. I voted for Trump twice.
Afghanistan was the extremely easy target. I had no issues going in to find Bin Laden. Saudi Arabia was the better fitting target, though, because that country was the origination more than any other. Just as our US flight schools were for allowing them to train in the US dubiously.
We had him a Tora Bora supposedly, but this war, like Iraq, was governed by lawyers and bureaucrats, mostly one and the same.
Bin Ladin, although was found in our once ally Pakistan. Not long after, SEAL Team 6 took a supposedly lucky hit.
Eff em. Get out. Biden, though, like his vote with Vietnam, made sure our people and other sympathetics will be harmed.
Eff Biden too … Ditto for the entire Democratic ( democratic? really? authoritarian, uptight asshats!)
We should have left once we completed our mission, but that change, progressed, metastasized.
Trump tried to fight the Leviathan, but failed … for now.
But Kate, our betters who know best have explained that white supremacist, domestic terrorists are our greatest threat. All of whom exist within the deplorable Trump voters.
TommyJay,
Since our people are locked within Kabul’s airport, what “intelligence and information” can Gen. McKenzie of Central Command possibly have that the Taliban don’t already know?
Nonapod,
The hypothesis was that only by turning Afghanistan and Iraq into modern Western Democracies could we ever disengage ourselves from acting as permanent occupier/enforcers.
Skip,
It’s the death by a thousand cuts strategy.
Tom Grey,
“Every voter who voted Biden voted IN FAVOR of this.”
Not to quibble and I too blame those who voted for Biden but every voter who voted for Biden, indeed anyone who did not vote for Trump enabled this disaster and the coming atrocites.
geoffb,
“I wonder where it’ll be by tomorrow?”
If not tomorrow, soon; “At this point, what does it matter?”
Oliver North talking up trade. Well that’s new.
For the rest. Stop Digging. Hole plenty deep already. Let them @#$% each other and their goats.
Like the Balkans. Not worth the blood of a single Pomeranian Grenadier.
The folks who sleepwalked into August 1914 were High IQ geniuses (perhaps not Nicky) cf. clowns on *all* sides of political spectrum in the Imperial Capital today.
Expect worse and you won’t be disappointed.
TexasDude:
Not forgetting that Bin Laden was also once *your* ally against the evil terrible nasty scary rotten child-killing goddamn Commies.
Simple really… Geofence places like Afghanistan and Pakistan. Deny entry to the USA for their citizens and for that matter their genetic signatures. Pay no attention to what they do to women, goats, or boys… it’s none of anyone else’s business. Punitive raids OK if they misbehave in the USA. USA not to undertake punitive action on behalf of *other* nations or some nebulous *joint security*… purely self-interest. Nuke from orbit if super egregious terrorist activity in USA proven originate from there. Promoters of debacles like F22 Raptor to be parachuted into Kandahar with blunt Bowie Knife to encourage more common sense defense procurement… Lots of good things can be done with that place at one millionth the cost.
The source of America’s international problems is internal.
America’s leftists and the deeply foolish liberals who enable it.
Through much blood and an astronomical amount of treasure, we held back the flood for a time. America has yet to reach consensus as to the true motivations of Islam’s jihadists and an inability to rech consensus about the nature and identify of an enemy is a guarantee of failure.
Islam itself is the jihadist’s sole motivation.
Jihadists are the most devoted of all Muslims for they are willing to die in pursuit of Allah’s commands.
Nor as I have consistently argued does the West have to make war upon the world’s Muslims. Eviction yes, as Islam’s tenets are utterly incompatible with “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”. Followed by implementing measures that attach what for jihadists are intolerable consequence to jihadist terrorism. Trump proved that America’s energy independence is achievable. Let Western Europe defend itself if it wishes to survive hijrah (migratory jihad). Let the Middle East pound sand. We need neither them nor anything they have.
If not, how long till Pakistan or China acting covertly, enables jihadists to ‘steal’ a shipment of nuclear bombs? Bringing some across our southern border is not outside the realm of possibilities. Perhaps after a few major American cities are rendered uninhabitable, societal consensus will emerge as to Islam’s inherent nature…
So too with the world’s hostile communist regimes. Foremost of which is China and yet, we still buy from them. Gleefully laughing as we buy the rope with which they plan to hang America.
As far as I know there is no impetus by businesses and US governments to implement a full transition away from doing business with an inarguable enemy.
Can there be any greater irony in today’s America than that the hated right is the only hope liberals have for escaping the fate that enabling the left shall bring upon them?
The Taliban were and are a wholly owned subsidiary of the Pakistani Military-Intelligence complex (PMIC). So the Pakistanis will run Afghanistan.
But, Pakistan is a failed state with a collapsed economy. PMIC must rely on foreign funding to keep going.
For many years it was the US and Saudi Arabia. But that has gone downhill and (fingers crossed) will disappear completely soon.
Luckily for PMIC, China has money and is looking for friends and tangible resources. PMIC has 1. ports on the Persian Gulf which China needs so that it can ensure its oil supply from Iran, 2 and lots of minerals such as Lithium in Afghanistan.
It is a marriage made in hell. Pakistan prides itself on its being a Muslim country. China has a long tradition of exterminating Muslims. the Uyghurs are just the latest: The genocide of the Dzungar Mongols in the 18th century. https://razib.substack.com/p/made-in-china
OTOH, the Pakistanis are our enemies. They hate us as kufirs. So, it is hard to work up any concern for them.
Sooner or later they will discover how cheaply they have sold their souls to the Chinese. In that hour, their wails and moans will be sweet music to our ears.
South Koreans Care:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3146534/repatriated-remains-soldiers-show-south-korea-and-china-have
@WalterSobchak:
Pakistan and China have been close allies since the 1950s. You *do* know that, don’t you?
I mean there’s this large heaving head-wiggling excrement-bespattered mass of humanity wedged between them which neither of them particularly like and with which both of them have fought wars.
One of your immediate problems is Indians IN your country — some Silicon Valley Indians bought the vice-presidency of the United States for a lark… and all of them hate you as a Legacy White Male. Or there’s the Indian Nepotism Mafia #$%^ed up Intel and put it 10 years behind in sub-10nm process technology. Worry about them.
The Punishment for Pakis is being Pakis. It’s plenty enough. Oh… and for sure the Chinese *do* despise them. The Chinese despise everyone. But politely and inscrutably. News at 10.
Past US support for Pakistan goes along with US Support for the Khmer Rouge (no, really,.. I’m serious). Just. Stop.
Walter,
Not to quibble because it would give China access to Iran’s oil but Pakistan’s ports lie on the Arabian Sea, which is adjacent to the Gulf of Oman that leads to the Persian Gulf.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U4JBy22Xku0/TniYshhIgiI/AAAAAAAAAcU/zvtLQoyzbhA/s1600/Gulf+Oman.jpg
Zaphod,
“The Chinese despise everyone.”
That’s my understanding as well. You do know that to be prima facie evidence of a massive inferiority complex… real confidence doesn’t need to look down upon others as inferiors. It takes others on their merits and the character they exhibit.
@GB:
I guess that must be it… I mean inferiority complexes driving high speed rail rollout, ICBM silo build outs, naval buildups, fifth generation fighters which might actually work unlike the F22 boondoggle, and your cellphone and your router, and your PC… Sounds to me like everyone should be going out and acquiring an Inferiority Complex stat.
Or can you eat the Federalist Papers?
I’m not a Chinese. I don’t get to do a victory dance if they win. But there are still too many ***Copes***. Sorry. Fact.
PS: As with everyone, the Chinese will grudgingly respect strength and competence. But as with women.. past performance wins you no prizes. What can you do *Today*? Everyone in the West is living and coping on Past Performances.
Zaphod:
What’s a Cope?
I prefer the Federalist Papers in a fresh new edition, lightly charred and salted with olive oil on the side. Yum.