Promising vaccine trials
We could use some encouraging news, and I think this qualifies:
The researchers are calling their experimental vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222). It combines genetic material from the coronavirus with a modified adenovirus that is known to cause infections in chimpanzees. The phase one trial had more than 1,000 participants in people ages 18 to 55.
The researchers said the vaccine produced antibodies and killer T-cells to combat the infection that lasted at least two months. Neutralizing antibodies, which scientists believe is important to gain protection against the virus, were detected in participants. The T-cell response did not increase with a second dose of the vaccine, they said, which is consistent with other vaccines of this kind.
“The immune system has two ways of finding and attacking pathogens — antibody and T cell responses,” Oxford professor Andrew Pollard said in a release. “This vaccine is intended to induce both…”
For quite a few months, I’ve noticed a lot of skepticism on both left and right about the possibility of developing an effective vaccine. And I mean a lot of skepticism. The criticisms range from general distrust of anything medical – the “evil big pharma” approach – to specific objections that we’ve never been able to develop a vaccine for a coronavirus.
I’m not in either camp. I actually think that for the most part vaccines work and that the companies who develop them are trying very hard to make them safe, and that although they don’t always succeed, they usually do. The potential problem I see with the COVID vaccine development might be inordinate speed, but I also understand why that’s happening, as well.
As for the argument about never having had a coronavirus vaccine before, I don’t see that as a stumbling block either. Here’s the way it’s sometimes stated (the quote’s from about two months ago):
According to [Dr. Bhattacharya’s] assessment, a vaccine is an open-ended question. None of the other coronaviruses that infect humans have one and there is no guarantee this one will.
Technically true but also misleading. Coronaviruses have mainly caused two types of illness. The first is akin to the common cold (also caused by rhinoviruses). Vaccine development is expensive and laborious, and to develop one for colds has never been cost-effective because there are just way too many strains of virus and types of virus involved, and the illness itself is not dangerous. The second type of illness caused by coronavirus in the past has been of the SARS/MERS variety. Scientists were in the process of developing vaccines, but before they got to the final states the viruses petered out and it was no longer cost-effective (or even possible, considering how uncommon the viruses had become in the population) to continue with the development of the vaccines.
That doesn’t mean we’ll have a COVID vaccine soon; there may be stumbling blocks ahead. But it does mean there’s no reason to think we won’t have one – unless the illness becomes so infrequent that testing can’t effectively go on, or wouldn’t be worth the expense. I don’t think I’d weep if that were to happen.
The virus may have been engineered to mutate around any vaccine.
Vanderleun:
Except there is no evidence whatsoever of this. The mutations so far are on the order of what’s normal for viruses and in fact are considered more minor than normal and not an impediment to the creation of an effective vaccine. See this, for example.
The results are possibly encouraging. The trial only had 1k people, so randomized, means only about 500 got the vaccine and not the placebo. Need a much larger sample size before getting too excited.
On another note, thank goodness the pharma industry is still operated under capitalism. The profit motive for this vaccine is large and competition is intense. Imagine a state run company working on it. Hmm…Maybe that’s why China is trying to hack in and steal the research.
The P industry is going to burn down.
That’s as accurate as what I said about CW2.
From the beginning of the pandemic, I’ve been skeptical that a vaccine could be quickly developed. The Ebola vaccine was approved six years after the virus emerged in Guinea. That set a record for a vaccine development timeline. Like everyone, I’m hopeful that dispensing with many safety measures will shorten the timeline for a COVID-19 vaccine, but widely distributing a vaccine that hasn’t been thoroughly tested could have dire consequences. As they say, speed kills.
On a more hopeful note, recent research indicates that the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine could dampen the septic inflammation associated with COVID-19. The MMR vaccine would be used as a preventive, not therapeutic, measure. Merck licensed the MMR vaccine in 1971, which means that many of the people who are now most at risk for death from COVID-19, have not received the MMR vaccine. Next time I have an appointment with my doctor, I plan to ask him about this.
For those curious about using the MMR vaccine for COVID-19, here’s a link:
https://mbio.asm.org/content/11/3/e00907-20
But it does mean there’s no reason to think we won’t have [a vaccine] – unless the illness becomes so infrequent that testing can’t effectively go on, or wouldn’t be worth the expense. I don’t think I’d weep if that were to happen.
neo: HIV strikes me as an important counter-example. I lived in San Francisco in the 80s/90s. The city’s desperation over AIDS was palpable even if you were straight. Worldwide 32 million people have died of it. Currently 770,000 are dying of it each year.
So there has been strong incentive to develop a vaccine, yet none has emerged.
One might argue that the “cocktail” combo of anti-AIDS drugs reduced the incentive to develop a vaccine, but the cocktail didn’t appear until the late 90s. The cocktail is expensive in the US. While $10/month is a bargain for treatment in Africa, that’s money to the poor.
So there’s still motivation for a vaccine and around four decades later there’s still no vaccine.
Maybe HIV is a special case for vaccine development. This is not my territory. But hoping for an HIV vaccine is the basis of my pessimism with regard to a Covid vaccine.
I don’t rule it out, but I’m not betting on one anytime soon.
huxley:
Yes, HIV is very different and not relevant to COVID. See this:
COVID is a much more conventional virus in terms of the way the body reacts to infection, and this is what can be harnessed in making a vaccine.
Neo. I think you mean Huxley. 🙂
physicsguy:
Apologies. Will change.
neo:
I’m glad to know there’s good scientific reason to believe a Covid vaccine will be easier than HIV.
OTOH my faith in scientific experts has been eroded. Scientists or not, they tend to say whatever they find favorable in terms of funding or politics. See environmental/climate alarmism and Fauci’s various contradictory Covid proclamations.
So if Fauci, whom you’re quoting, is cautiously optimistic we’ll get vaccines for HIV and Covid, and it takes 50 years to get an HIV vaccine and it’s, say, 10x faster for Covid, that would mean a Covid vaxx is still five years out.
Of course, my numbers are pulled out of a hat, but illustrate my reasoning.
I’m also daunted by the problem of a vaccine which must be safe enough to be administered to billions of people.
“Scientists or not, they tend to say whatever they find favorable in terms of funding or politics”
Oh my yes! I saw this as far back as the 80s and the big bucks for Star Wars research. A big portion of the problem is that at the major research universities, and now smaller colleges, grants equal tenure. The days of Newton, Maxwell, Einstein, and even Feynman are long gone.
Interesting you mention HIV.
FWIW, here’s an article that quotes an “expert’s” claims that:
– “…the coronavirus had escaped in an “industrial accident” while Chinese scientists at the Wuhan city laboratory were trying to develop a vaccine against HIV.”
– “…the pandemic will naturally extinguish itself because of its synthetic origins… even if nothing is done, things will get better, but unfortunately after many deaths.”
– “…the pandemic would peter out because nature would override the synthetically inserted sequences that make COVID-19 so deadly: ‘With the help of interfering waves, we could eliminate these sequences … and consequently stop the pandemic. But it would take many means available.’ ”
It all sounds a bit like science fiction. Caveat emptor:
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/07/17/luc-antoine-montagnier-coronavirus-is-manmade.aspx
Some comic relief for both Neo and Huxley: “Anthony Fauci Will Throw The Ceremonial First Pitch On Nationals’ Opening Day.”
https://dcist.com/story/20/07/20/anthony-fauci-will-throw-the-ceremonial-first-pitch-on-nationals-opening-day/
Photo shows the good doctor (/sarc) wearing a face mask made from Nationals-themed fabric. Obvious questions: Will Fauci throw a left-handed spitball? Or will he throw a flattened curve ball? Will he require players to wear gloves under their mitts? And will he inspect the catcher’s mask before the game?
Heh heh– “Teams, meanwhile, have started to play exhibition games — and the Nats have gotten off to a rocky start. The team lost 7-2 to the Philadelphia Phillies, where ex-National Bryce Harper hit a home run.” That cheers my Phillies-loyal heart, it does.
And a bit of deja vu:
https://www.foxnews.com/media/hydroxychloroquine-could-save-lives-ingraham-yale-professor
Barry Meislin: Your quote is from Luc Montagnier, the French discoverer of HIV, so it’s old home week for HIV experts to weigh in on Covid! (Fauci is another such veteran.)
Robert Gallo was credited as the American discoverer of HIV. Though there was no small controversy attending that claim. I recall being convinced Gallo had used a sample from Montagnier’s lab, wittingly or no. Apparently there were nuances. Back then Reagan and the French President Mitterand met face-to-face to iron things out and to split the difference.
I mention this as a reminder that scientists as pure seekers of truth does not apply well in the current age, especially when substantial money, prestige and power are at stake.
Maybe HIV is a special case for vaccine development. This is not my territory. But hoping for an HIV vaccine is the basis of my pessimism with regard to a Covid vaccine.
Unless I’m mistaken:
HIV mutates rapidly and the surface antigens change, making vaccine development quite challenging.
We don’t have vaccines for colds because there is a three digit population of cold viruses and they don’t have common surface antigens accessible to white cells. Covid-19 is a specific cold virus, so vaccine programs have a discrete target.
Robert Gallo was credited as the American discoverer of HIV. Though there was no small controversy attending that claim.
If I’m not mistaken, it’s generally conceded now that what he discovered was in samples sent to him by Montagnier.
If I’m not mistaken, it’s generally conceded now that what he discovered was in samples sent to him by Montagnier.
Art Deco: If I’m not mistaken, that is basically what I said in my comment.
So now Trump’s back out there saying it’s going to get worse before it gets better despite deaths being much lower this time around and ample evidence that the cases are being inflated.
This just gives cover for idiot governors to lock it down again like the jackass in WA is threatening now.
With these kinds of comments he deserves to lose the election sadly. Ridiculous. Inexcusable.
If Trump had any message discipline he should be out there saying yes COVID is serious but there have been studies reporting that as many as 30% of tests are false positive and that an unknown amount of ‘cases’ are ‘probables’ that have never tested positive or even been tested only labeled as cases through contact tracing. And he should be pointing out that it’s not even clear how many have died because of COVID and how many have died ‘with’ COVID and he should pushing states to cut the cap with motorcycle accident COVID deaths and the gunshot COVID deaths.
But instead we get this whip sawing back and forth message. He apparently doesn’t even have Fauci to blame anymore.
It can be a serious problem while at the same time not so much as to cause the complete and utter altering of life from our human interactions to our kids schooling.
Further how about pointing out that virtually all of these supposed public health ‘experts’ were saying that masks and even social distancing are ineffective for these types of viruses as recently as earlier this year and last year. Now they are universally accepted. Why?
I swear Ron De Santis has been the only elected official in a major state (sorry Gov Noem SD is too small) that has had the stones to stand up and fight back with facts and stats and consistency.
Went into a gas station mini mart over on the coast today in a county with like 50 cases total this whole time and put the stupid mask on and the clerk stopped me and told me I had to put on these thin clear gloves to shop there. Is this next? Inundate these people with science don’t just cede and retreat. This will never end if people keep retreating. The lack of pushback has been so disheartening. People like to say it will end on Nov. 3 but that is not even close to true these democrats will still be the governors and President Biden (or Obama or whoever is really in charge) will move to make all this stuff mandated nationally.
This is a very good piece about what we are doing to young people in our society right now.
Jason Whitlock is a very important voice right now.
http://www.outkick.com/obsession-with-death-means-young-people-can-not-live/
I wish some national politician could really push this point.
Griffin, I believe I saw a poll where something like 54% of t h e US population are in fear of dying from the Wuflu. I’ve seen it in my family members who are normally rational. If the idea is to control people with fear, someone’s done a great job.
I’m still tracking data. As of today serious cases are 0.84% of active cases. In mid April it was mid 3%. You’d think that would be a cause for optimism. This country is so screwed.
physicsguy,
Yep, I have never seen anything like this. It is some sort of mass delusion and the people that get some weird thrill out of any possible bad news is disgusting and a lot of time it’s not even bad news but they are too deluded or stupid to see it.
This is by far the most disturbing event in this country in my 51 years. It is the culmination of so, so many things. Hyper politicization of everything, worship of government, safety Uber alles, lack of religious faith in so many, the list could go on.
Opening the door with these lockdown measures was a catastrophic decision.
“Except there is no evidence whatsoever of this.”
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. [unquote]
But we do know that the Chinese are not to be believed about **ANYTHING**!
Besides, if it was the case that the virus was released clandestinely as a bio-weapon it would be the most explosive piece of information imaginable. If it was known that that actually was the case (I am NOT SAYING it is.) it would mean war and war has to be avoided at any cost.
Hence, even if there was a deliberate release of a bio-weapon it would never be announced. It would be the most highly classified information on the planet.
Given how little is known about the virus and the resistance of the CCP to international inspection at Wuhan there is no reason to trust them about anything.
I pretty much consider it a done deal that Covid was a released (unintentionally IMO) from one of the two advanced virology labs in Wuhan, one lab only a few hundred meters from the infamous Seafood Market where many (though not all) of the initial cases were reported.
Those labs just happened to be researching bat coronaviruses close to Covid from samples taken hundreds of miles away from Wuhan.
Fortunately the CCP destroyed all their samples, cleaned the Market and refused to allow Western scientists in to make independent inspections.
Houston fire and police respond to reports of documents being burned at Consulate General of China
Houston police and fire officials responded to reports that documents were being burned in the courtyard of the Consulate General of China in Houston Tuesday night, according to the Houston Police Department.
HPD said they began receiving reports that documents were being burned just after 8 p.m. at 3417 Montrose Boulevard where the consulate is located.
As to the vaccine let’s say they have one are we going to require people to get it. I am far from an anti vaxxer but I’m not sure I want to take some vaccine developed last week.
One of my favorite stats I’ve seen is that in Pennsylvania more people over 100 have died than under 50. That is amazing.
Why would you take a vaccine for an illness that is of virtually no danger to you?
From what we’ve seen from the teachers union would it be that surprising if they require children to get it before agreeing to in person learning.
I actually think that for the most part vaccines work and that the companies who develop them are trying very hard to make them safe, and that although they don’t always succeed, they usually do.
This is a good example of how we arrived in clown world. What you say here is 100% true…in sane times with reasonable incentives. There are people more ruthless and selfish than you can imagine (literally, your brain will not consider it). They are the ones who tend to win in power games like politics. The upper tier of any important institution is determined by skills with power politics, not merit and certainly not honor and integrity. These people are more than happy to “hack” your worldview and good nature and use them against you, as they’ve done here.
Thus…what should be a good-faith worldwide effort to develop something that many people will be happy to take voluntarily is transformed by Bill Gates et al into a global population control (his words) measure. The “problems” with the vaccine has almost nothing to do with the underlying medical science, and all to do with the power politics it will be used for, namely a social-credit like system to grant entry to civil society, with any possible negative effects buried by a wholly-owned media complex.
TL:DR…you first, lady.
Yeah. If you’re under 50, in California, your odds of dying are less than from an accidental death by driving. Odds get soberingly real over that age.
Yet I don’t recall any political leader announcing protective measures and isolation for elders while those younger than 50 remain tasked with working — anyone know differently?