Should you fly yet? The experts speak
Pocket recommended this article to me today, entitled, “Should You Fly Yet? An Epidemiologist and an Exposure Scientist Walk You Through the Decision Process.”
My immediate reaction: why should I care what they have to say?
That’s the legacy of the COVID pandemic.
It’s perfectly safe to fly if you fly Woke or if you are of the Black folk. You can’t fly with any White Privilege; you can’t check it at the counter or store it in the overhead bin.
Yesterday, when I read the following article, I thought: “Have we been fooled for months?”
“Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says”
https://tinyurl.com/ya53m2yl
Today a “correction” was issued:
“The W.H.O. walks back an earlier assertion that asymptomatic transmission is very rare”
https://tinyurl.com/y929xf6n
The original article didn’t appear so ambiguous.
Experts.
Probably the safest place to fly would be IN those overhead bins.
“Folks, just leave your bags on the seats. No need to push, now. The flight attendants are coming through with ladde, um, elevation devices. Pillows and blankets are already up there. Just want to take a moment to thank you all for flying….”
Someone on NextDoor sent me a USA Today “fact check” on the death rate from Covid. That reporter said Ben Carson’s estimate of 1 or 2% might be correct but although the number is small it could mean death to 700K to 1.3M depending on various assumptions.
The fact check was written May 5th, more than a month ago.
Sending me the fact check was apparently to chide me because, using last week’s CDC numbers, I had posted an expected death rate of 0.26%.
I shake my head. Does anyone think our final death total will be 1 million?
The deaths are slowing, day by day. Will we even get to 200K?
Sigh.
“My immediate reaction: why should I care what they have to say?” Neo
So on-point! Just this morning I spoke with my husband about trying to make it to the Bay Area at the end of the month for our grandson’s 1st birthday. As a number of commenters know, Doug almost died of Covid-19. It was really the cytokine storm that almost took his life. It was looking good each step of the post-illness road as the follow-up appointments and tests were performed, until the stress-echo test on 5/29 showed a blockage in one of the arteries. Last Thursday he had the angiogram that resulted in an angioplasty, placing a stent due to 85% blockage. Judging on lifestyle and no prior symptoms we feel that the damage was a result of the illness. He went from pre-illness to not even being on a supplement, to now a beta-blocker, statin, blood thinner and low-dose aspirin along with his vitamins. He is adjusting nicely and back to work pre and post procedure. All that to say, this morning when we discussed flying up north, we never even considered checking any “expert” opinions. You know, the public health experts all on board for shutting down small businesses and locking down the healthy because of the pandemic but now 1200 of whom sanction the “protests” because of “mental health”. We’ll stick with his doctor’s advice, thank you.
Of course the US Air Force Military Airlift Command is the only way to fly because the C5A has landing gear that allows it to kneel upon landing.
“A “kneeling” landing gear system lowers the aircraft’s cargo floor to truck-bed height.”
https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ac/c-5.htm
I don’t know if the “grovel” functionality was ever incorporated.
Long term, the word “expert” may well become as bad calling someone a “racist”.
Sharon W;
Thanks for the update on Doug’s health and praises that his procedure was a success.
Well, I was raised to distrust would be leaders, all politicians, government in general, and experts. Nothing has changed since my early childhood schooling. Hopefully, one can trust family and friends; beyond that trust no one. That’s life.
Here in PA our (transgender) department of health secretary Dr. Rachel Levine pulled her own mother out of a nursing home while at the same time approving the admission of COVID patients to PA nursing homes. She also defended Gov. Tom Wolf’s decision to participate in a packed BLM protest in a county that was still subject to shutdown measures:
https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/why-did-pa-gov-tom-wolf-join-a-protest-with-thousands-of-people-breaking-the-rules-in-a-yellow-phase-county.html
I started looking at the total travel time via road and air as well as the cost of the road trip (includes gas, tolls, hotels, food) vs air flight (includes parking, car rental, baggage fees and limitations). Most of the time, the car option is better. And, I like driving, stopping to look at things, and enjoying talking with my travel companion.
For about 10 years, that travel companion was my mom as I took her places as well as traveling between homes (MI-OK). There are lots of good memories in slow travel and roads less traveled. On a recent trip to Michigan, it occasionally took me eight hours to go fifty miles – just too many places (wineries, orchards, stores, beaches, etc) to stop and explore. Plus, I need the car space to handle the things I pick up along the way. I blame Mom for those habits…
Oh, and now we have to worry about germs. With driving, I can pick my hotel, restaurants, stops, etc. I always pack a picnic basket for the trip, though it is usually involves cleaning out the refrig.
Om, at least the C5 can show its allegiance to BLM.
For a long trip, though, the driving alternative will involve overnight stays and restaurant meals…I wonder how the coronavirus risk profile of these compares with that of flying?
Of course, one could always buy a well-equipped RV and do your own cooking.
(I wouldn’t be surprised if the fatal-accident risk from driving 2000 miles equals or exceeds the coronavirus risk + the accident risk from doing the same trip by air)
Sharon W, I’m so glad to hear that your husband has (mostly) done so well, and that the blockage problem is under control. And I fully agree with you about the experts!
My husband is a commercial airline pilot and he would appreciate it if you would fly again. He’s getting pretty bored at home.
physicsguy:
Here is a video of the woke C-5 Galaxy kneeling. They often say the military is used to try out social justice policies, who knew Lockheed and the Pentagon were so prescient in the 1960s. Now it is the C-5M model BTW.
http://www.aiirsource.com/c-5-galaxy-kneeling-down/
A ground loop may be the equivalent of a “grovel” maneuver, generally it is frowned upon.
Rational evidence continues to indicate that for most people in most places, the risk of serious illness or death is miniscule, flu-like at most. That does not stop a significant chunk of the population from continuing to be irrational, nor does it shut up those who benefit from keeping the sheep as blindly terrified as possible. I’ve just quietly withdrawn – I cannot handle the mass hysteria and idiocy. I will not put with people who ignore facts in favor of what someone on TV or social media says.
Oh, and don’t forget to turn off the Google COVID-19 Exposure Notifications which is now on your cell phone, just on general principles.
SharonW, glad Doug is substantially OK but those follow on complications are plenty scary.
In a court trial, I think we all know that lawyers for both sides can present their “expert” witnesses. It is then left to a lay-person jury to figure out which set of experts is less full of B.S.
We are now faced with a situation in which the country has been so politically polarized that even previously non-partisan institutions now cannot be trusted to be above politics.
Neo is right in her conclusion… and that is very sad state of affairs.
Joining in congrats to Doug – heart operations are not a walk in the park (heh).
The only consistent thing from WHO, and generally the CDC, is that their advice is wrong. This is why we say they are so-called experts.
It seems to me Covid-19 health risk is based on the individual’s characteristics, not activities like flying in a commercial airplane or dining out at a public restaurant. At my age and level of general health I am at low risk of contracting the virus (if I haven’t already) and microscopic risk of developing severe adverse symptoms and death.
So WHO made the phone call to the WHO to tell them they were disrupting the plan? The WHOs in Whosville want to know. Probably the Grinch stealing a summer Christmas from us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdll0BCBEnw
Sharon W – so glad to hear Doug’s “all right” — living with taking medicine. My heart medicine regime includes before & after breakfast, and then more stuff before and after dinner. Now for the past 3 years (just saw my heart doctor, no change).
A big issue with WHO is that many specialists are changing from 2 into 3 possible states:
asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and symptomatic.
There are some newer studies showing that often people develop symptoms on Day 5, but were infectious on prior days (4, 3, 2; 1?) without symptoms. (My wife is following these studies; I’m not even looking at the WHO notes directly.)
Tests are also problematic, with both false negatives and false positives, and multiple different tests. Some test accuracy study showed a 27% false negative rate for infected people on day 5, with higher false negatives on other days.
Test information that doesn’t include the false negative / false positive ratios are much less informative than optimal. The failure to get good info about the tests has been a big CDC expert failure.
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I think non-sick folk should go ahead and fly, if they are not obese, not old, and don’t have other respiratory or heart co-morbidity conditions.
My son and his family are flying to Arkansas today. They thought of renting a motor home and driving but it would have cost $5,000. They will be driving around there and flying home from Houston in a week.
When he was 15, I took him and five other teens to England for two weeks. We rented a van to drive around but England is much smaller.
Unless IMHO something dramatically changes, I plan to fly domestically this summer, and hopefully internationally in the fall. I am in a high risk group and will be cautious. I have been annoyed with the “experts”, ever since the Diamond Princess data came out. Worse case scenario–lots of old folks in cramped settings with no initial social distancing nor masks for a large portion of their trip. Most did not get Covid. The majority of those that did get infected were not sick; now we know total of 14 died of the 3700 crew/clients. These were over age of 70. The over age 65 group-highest risk groups, vast majority had no issues. Look it up yourselves. Who are you going to believe, the “experts” or your own lyin’ reading eyes (oops, are Blazing Saddles quotes even allowed anymore in our woke world?). I have also given up on “Next-door” app–You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy (woke crowd ok with Star Wars quotes I believe, lol).
My brother’s boss has lived his life based on his informed assessment of probabilities. That gentleman and his wife have been flying all over the place since mid-April.