COVID-19: making predictions
I have gotten to the point where I no longer put any trust in the prognostications of scientists about COVID-19 and the comparison of various social policy tactics for dealing with it. These people have lost credibility – and I was already skeptical in the first place.
Some no doubt are well-intentioned and trying their best to do a good job. Others probably have a political agenda. But at this point I think even the first group simply doesn’t know. The country-by-country data gives us some information, to be sure – enough to bring me to the conclusion that there is no simple relationship between any of the rules and the outcomes claimed to be a result of those rules. But it doesn’t tell us what to do going forward.
Sweden is encouraging in terms of relaxing the rules, but the US is not Sweden. Georgia, likewise. But it still doesn’t tell us enough.
However, I also concluded a few weeks ago that we must go forward and open up the economy or the amount of human suffering as a result of the shutdown will be absolutely enormous, too. In fact, it already has been. Those at greater risk (like me) will have to make our own decisions about how and when we’ll venture forth. But the greater good requires that we end this stalemate.
I’m with Rand Paul who said this today to Dr. Fauci:
We need to uh, observe with an open mind what went on in Sweden, where the kids kept going to school. The mortality per capita in Sweden is actually less than France, less than Italy, less than Spain, less than Belgium, less than the Netherlands, about the same as Switzerland. But basically I don’t think there’s anybody arguing that what happened in Sweden is an unacceptable result. I think people are intrigued by it and we should be, I don’t think any of us are certain when we do all these modelings, there’ve been more people wrong with modeling than right. We’re opening up a lot of economies around the, around the U S and I hope that people who are predicting doom and gloom and saying, Oh, we can’t do this, there’s going to be, the surge will admit that they were wrong…
…We can listen to your advice, but there are people on the other side saying there’s not going to be a surge and that we can safely open the economy and the facts will bear this out.
About two months ago I wrote a post entitled “Gone are the days: assuming the risk.” In it I wrote:
Of course, I wasn’t around in 1918. I wasn’t around when smallpox and tuberculosis or the Black Death killed far far more of the people on earth than any of the plagues of my lifetime have come close to killing. I cannot even imagine how terrible those things were; I don’t even want to imagine. And I doubt that people took them in stride at all. And I think a good part of the dread and fear now is that in the back of our minds – or for some people, even the front of our minds – we know that such catastrophes are still possible. Human beings know they are intensely vulnerable.
But COVID-19 is not shaping up to be that sort of event, and there’s no reason to think it will be. However, although many measures are prudent – handwashing, increased testing, hospital preparedness, some measure of social distancing at least for a while – the degree of fear I see and hear is far greater than anything I can recall in my lifetime around a medical event.
And COVID-19 still isn’t shaping up to be that kind of event. We have a lot more information now. It seems, though, that people have become less able to assume any risks at all, and more demanding of total or nearly total safety. Meanwhile, to achieve that safety, many advocate the continuation of measures that are bound to sink this country – not to mention causing people to die of or suffer from other diseases or phenomena such as domestic abuse or suicide.
Of course, some who advocate continual shutdown have other motives than near-total safety. Some on the left would like the economy to sink and are merely using the fear sparked by COVID to achieve those aims. And there are plenty of people who would like to use all of it to destroy Trump’s and the GOP’s chances of victory in November.
Fauci is an absolute disgrace. If Trump doesn’t have the courage to sideline him then he needs to bring in others with differing views to make this quack defend his insane proclamations.
The great irony of all this is Trump the great drain the swamp fight the deep state candidate has been totally coopted by the ultimate swamp creature deep state actor in Fauci and it will likely lead to his defeat.
How long will Americans tolerate being treated like small children? Give us information about the virus as it develops, and let us make our own decisions. My husband and I are sticking close to home because of our age. It’s our decision. I see no valid reasons for the neighborhood children to be out of school, or for restaurant, gym, hair salon, and nail salon workers to be out of work. Let all these establishments set up infection control measures, let them publish those to their clientele, and let the clientele decide what level of risk they choose to assume.
Besides, as New York and practically everyone else is learning, the enforced shutdowns aren’t really preventing hospitalizations and deaths. More cleanliness and masks on mass transit probably do help. Destroying lives doesn’t.
To those that say it’s the governors making these decisions that is true but it is people like Fauci and by extension Trump that are giving them cover to do this crap.
Now any governor that wants to cancel school in September can cite Fauci and by extension Trump when doing it.
Here in WA our leader King Jay The Pompous has decreed that all restaurants will have to keep records of all customers with phone numbers and email addresses as conditions for reopening. This is truly insane.
So in WA restaurants will have to keep these lists for 30 days but not Walmart, not Costco, not Safeway, not Home Depot, not your local minimart, not gas stations just restaurants.
The riots can’t come fast enough.
I keep pointing out that Fauci is no oracle, no epidemiologist, no economist (macro or micro!) and has never practiced actual medicine since his internship. He supervises the doling out of grant money to supplicants er applicants, which bizarrely included the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
It is our great misfortune to have Fauci on the public stage. He is treated and regarded as an expert witness without being interrogated by anyone in any venue, including the US Senate, as to his qualifications (which is what would happen in any court of law).
In all of the public appearances that I have witnessed, Fauci has recited only personal opinions, not facts.
I have searched in vain for any evidence Fauci holds, or ever held, a license to practice medicine in any state.
Fauci, given his record since the AIDS epidemic, is not to be trusted. And Trump is to blame for listening to him for so long. Worst decision trump has made.
A few Items: New cases continues to decline by about 400/day, and serious cases are almost flat.
@Kate: here’s an interesting bit of data plotting state’s lockdown aggressiveness dated early April vs number of cases dated to yesterday. Of course it really doesn’t take into account differences physically between Wyoming and NY, but intriguing nonetheless for the inverse correlation. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/12/lockdown-fail-in-one-easy-graph/
Which state governors have made HCQ unavailable or difficult, and which states have the highest cases counts? https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/11/distributed-denial-of-hcq-to-covid-19-victims/
Finally, in the “this is really stupid” department. My state, CT, is supposed to start phase 1 on the 20th. As of now, we only need a mask if entering a building where distancing can not be kept up…like the grocery store. On the 20th it will be a requirement that EVERYONE wears a mask anywhere outside the house..even in the great outdoors. Less restrictive??? Effective??? I am so done with this BS.
Is there anyone else getting a little tired of hearing about the “heros”?
Maybe it’s time to acknowledge some of the people whose lives are being destroyed by the Fauci’s policies. Maybe a single mother in Michigan who has lost her “non-essential” job and is now struggling to find a way to keep her kids fed is a type of “hero” as well.
Griffin:
King Jay make sense? Is there a 25th Amendment in Olympia (nope).
physicsguy,
Here in King County (Seattle) they are requiring, mandating, asking pretty please (they can’t make up their minds which) that people wear masks at all times but there will be no punishment for not wearing one.
It’s all theater at this point.
Chris B,
Yes, my standard response every time one of those ‘hero’ commercials comes on is to ask if that includes all the health care worker heroes that have lost their jobs because of these insane policies.
I’m to the point now where if I see a commercial that doesn’t reference our hard/challenging/unique times or that said company is here for us all then I’ll buy something from them.
I don’t give a flip if some corporation is here for me ( hint; they’re really not).
It’s all theater at this point.
Didn’t see all of Fauci’s testimony’s but did anybody ask him why he said masks are useless for weeks before completely reversing himself?
Griffin, as a fellow Washingtonian, if I have to give my email address and phone number in a restaurant, you can be assured they won’t be real.
And I love how my local Home Depot makes you stand in a line and wait your turn, but the Lowe’s right across the parking lot does not. Guess where my husband and I will and won’t shop?
We’re in our 60s and 70s and don’t wear masks everywhere. Or freak out. My mom is 85, lives in Portland metro area in Oregon and goes out shopping, etc.
I’m sick of this! Fauci be damned.
IMO, from the beginning this has been a deliberate plan to harm the economy in order to harm orangemanbad. Destroying Main Street is a feature, not a bug. Are public employees at all levels still receiving paychecks? If so why? Pelosi and the usual suspects are milking TDS to prolong the panic. It doesn’t harm them, it does harms the deplorables and that sends a tingle down their legs.
I will confess I harbor a desire to kick pompous Fauci’s scheming ass.
I like was Rand Paul had to say here and I agree we need to start thinking about ways to open up our country. But people should not be dumping on Fauci. He gives advice. He does not set economic policy or close businesses. Governors and politicians do that. They can ignore him if they want.
As Fauci said to Paul:
I have never made myself out to be the end all and only voice in this. I’m a scientist, a physician and a public health official. I give advice according to the best scientific evidence. There are a number of other people who come into that and give advice that are more related to the things that you spoke about, about the need to get the country back open again and economically. I don’t give advice about economic things. I don’t get advice about anything other than public health.
I don’t understand how some Republicans believe that every person with experience is part of the nefarious deep state. Fifty plus years of experience in public health and advising every president since Reagan is not a bad thing. [His wiki page notes his medical experience].
Should government put their trust in someone who has no experience and agrees with GOP talking points? That said, Trump can choose to ignore him as can all the governors. But they respect him because he is an expert on infectious diseases. We’re dealing with a virus that wasn’t around six months ago. So caution has been used and is expected.
gwynmir,
Yep, here in Pierce County there is a Trader Joe’s where they are lining people up outside and restricting access using some indecipherable policy and right across the parking lot a Safeway is letting people come and go just like always.
Am I the only person that believed the experts and the media were literally hoping for Sweden to have 50,000 deaths due to the corona virus?
So far, Sweden has about less than 4,000 deaths. I have been unable to locate what the models had predicted for Sweden, but I think it’s safe to say they predicted far more fatalities.
Also, the corona virus is the first pandemic in world history in which the number of deaths due to the virus has been politicized to the upside.
I will estimate – without one shred of evidence – that in the USA, and in particular the Greater NYC Metro Area – that about 25% of those deaths attributed to the virus were caused by other pre-existing conditions (in which, during a “normal” flu season would have attributed to non-flu conditions).
“Some on the left would like the economy to sink and are merely using the fear sparked by COVID to achieve those aims.”
I don’t really understand this. Seriously. 25 years of hollowing out the U.S. economy is one of the things that brought us Trump. It betrays an almost infantile level of economic knowledge, as though you can crash the economy to stampede the country into adopting your policies and then….what? Just flip the magic switch to turn the perpetual money machine back on?
Mike
Montage,
Sorry, Fauci is a snake in the grass. Look at his praising of the WHO and their corrupt head. And his constantly changing policies and he’s an egomaniacal publicity hound. He’s a Comey just in another branch of government.
Nobody, I repeat nobody should be in their government role for 40 years or whatever he’s at. It makes it inevitable that it will lead to little fiefdoms like this guy seems to have. That Trump apparently doesn’t see this is to his great discredit.
I wonder if you get an antibody test and it is positive for C19, will the result be counted as a case? And, would the health agency mark the case as “recovered” or “active” to inflate the numbers to justify the continued shut-downs?
Since the various states are increasing C19 testing, including those people without symptoms, this will identify many minor cases which will just be put on self-quarantine status. In my state, the increased testing includes patients and staff at all LTC facilities. So, the cases will again increase, but the hospitalizations will probably not increase.
So, the flattening the curve was to prepare the health care system for the new workload, but I fear that the criteria will be the number of cases, and not the ability to handle any hospitalizations.
And, they want to wait until there is a vaccine. However, these vaccines will not have been widely tested and may produce many side-effects. I’m planning to first get an antibody test before I agree to a vaccine.
Who put Fauci in charge of my life?
Fauci is the head Witch Doctor. He has the most powerful juju. More powerful than the WHO, second only to the Xi. Xi changed the Wuhan virus to the European virus.
Liz, from the data I’ve been tracking since March 1, the answer is , yes, a positive result will add to the total. Increased testing in many states just adds to their total which is why we don’t see a flattening in the total cases curve. And if 30% have already had the virus, testing will just push that number even higher. Fauci and the Dems dream result.
Montage:
Enjoy your confinement, we know who screwed you.
https://www.redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2020/05/12/l.a.-county-extending-stay-at-home-order-for-3-mos/
Using “confinement” in the Jane Austen fashion.
om,
I believe montage specifically mentioned July as when he would begin to question the lockdown so I’m sure he will stick to that. Or maybe he will just continue to admire the beach from a safe and responsible distance as his kindly overlords require.
The same panic-stricken headless chickens who thought that it was a Bad Thing that many/most coronavirus cases are asymptomatic can be expected to run in terror and demand more restrictions if they find out that the true case counts in their area are much higher than presently thought. I have suspected ever since the push started for more testing that was the goal.
Griffin:
He gets out and about on 8/12/20. Sad to be Montage, that is not in July. There will be questions to be answered! Not that goal posts and science might change …..
Put me down as sick of hearing, “We’re all in this together”, especially the version with an !
Reading the comments above reinforces my thinking that in some places civil disobedience will be required to reopen to a broadly acceptable level. For me the data say reopen. Go out and about if you are comfortable, to places that you deem to be low risk. If you assess the risk to yourself as high, then stay in. Why is that so difficult?
Daily deaths apparently have about a 7-day cycle, with lows on the weekends, Seven-day averages, compiled day-to day, help smooth out the irregularities.
7-day averages, COVID-19 deaths.
15-21 Apr 2,199
22- 28 April 1,962
29 Apr-5 May 1,858
5-11 May 1,693
That is a fall of 23% in nearly three weeks from the peak. Were I to wait an hour and a half for today’s deaths, the 7 day average would drop to the 1615-1650 range.
Which tells me it is time to ease up on the shutdown.
HEB, a local grocery chain, changed its hours from 6a.m.-1.a.m. to 8-8, but now has increased to 6 am- 10 pm.
Griffin,
I was specifically talking about the business I am in. We predicted way back in March that we would be back in June or July. So, yes, I’m sticking with that. I would prefer to open today but that won’t happen in the business I’m in. Even in Georgia or other states that are opening are still not opening our specific business. We require crowds in small spaces. Our overlords don’t want that. Most of our customers don’t either.
But any other businesses that want to open let do it. I’m ready. Went to Chipotle today – everyone was orderly.
Om
In case you didn’t get the message above; we’re not on complete lockdown in LA. We’re in phase two of four. The third phase should be in June. The August date is the date they say everything can be lifted. So it’s not an all or nothing proposition. It’s gradual. I want donuts or tacos I walk down the street with everyone else to the stores that sell those.
There is no such thing as 100% safety in this life. People who cannot face this obvious fact have no place in ruling.
I am so weary of listening to such people bloviate. They will destroy our country if we don’t push back.
Time to make our own decisions about what risks we are willing to take.
Are we wimps or are we Americans?
Freedom is just a phase when there’s nothing left to loose. Keep counting those phases. Turn and face the strange phases. Enjoy your confinement, where you can go, what you can do, what you can sa …. in wonderful L.A.
“The August date is the date they say everything can be lifted.”
I look forward to seeing what your state and local city budget looks like by August and hearing your support for the crippling spending cuts and crushing tax increases coming your way.
Mike
If you’re a Covid nerd, be sure to watch this update, the 3rd interview by Peter Robinson of Hoover Inst of Dr Jay Bhattacharya. The other two are excellent too.
https://youtu.be/289NWm85eas (long: 55 min. but worth it)
Lot of updates on specific issues, and common sense observations.
One thing: I believe Dr Jay said there are no vaccines for any virus of the Corona family, not one. If I misheard, then at the least there are hardly any. Keep that in mind as we slip from “two week shutdown to flatten the curve” to “extend the shutdown for safety” and ultimately “continue the shutdown till we have a vaccine”.
We aren’t going to have a vaccine. Not this year, maybe not in any of our lifetimes.
What’s worse is that all this time has gone by and plenty of community groupings have no immunity. The shutdown is purely extending things. The moment we open up, the infections will begin again. But shutdown gains nothing because there is no vaccine on the horizon.
Protect the vulnerable. Open the economy. Bite the bullet.
I’ve seen this sort of factoid mentioned somewhere, if it was here at neo’s place, I apologize in advance, but here goes.
An installment of the Asian flu was raging across USA in 1957.
It claimed 70,000 to 116,000 deaths, depending on the source
(wikipedia cited both the lower limit and the upper limit, with footnote links).
The USA population in 1957 was, according to populationpyramid dot net,
around 177,751,000.
Let us project that to the 2019 USA population, around 329,065,000
(also based on populationpyramid dot net).
Then, in terms of the proportional number of deaths,
that range projects out to 130,000 to 215,000 deaths.
[both of the latter numbers result from rounding up to the nearest 1,000]
What’s different between 1957 Asian flu and 2019 covid-19 (it seems to me) are
– the unusually high rate of infectious transmission of covid-19, and
– how much about covid-19 still remains unknown.
JimNorCal:
Thanks for the tip on the Uncommon Knowledge interview from yesterday with Dr. Jay of Sanford Univ.
The link to the audio download is here:
https://www.podbean.com/site/EpisodeDownload/PBDC1994S9RAU
Well, at the risk of being out of step here, I think Trump has played this about as well as anyone in his position could have. He has followed the advice of Fauci and Birx, who are widely admired and respected. Had he not done so, can you imagine the MSM & Dem campaign against him? He has let governors follow their own paths – a hat tip to federalism. Had he not called for a shutdown, and the deaths were simply the same as they have been with the shutdown, he would have been called a murderer and worse. Had they been as bad as predicted by some models, the MSM and Dems would be calling for impeachment again. Anyone doubt that? He has followed the “best science.” At least in the eyes of the MSM and many citizens. He has also gotten Congress to produce bipartisan spending bills to help relieve the economic pain. In the meantime he has gotten private companies to ramp up production of much needed medical equipment. We are in much better shape to handle a second wave now than we were three months ago. Testing speed and reliability has improved ten fold. That was also a result of the private public partnership fostered by Trump and Pence. Now, Trump is tweeting his support of people demanding that their governors open up. He knows we have to open back up even if it means more infections and deaths. With good testing and tracking/tracing we might keep the infection and death rate on a low plateau. If not, the nation may have to steel itself for something resembling 1917/1918. But at least we are better equipped to fight the epidemic now than we were back in March. And that’s mostly because of Trump’s efforts. Nobody knows what is in the future, but I think Trump has shown an ability to lead, mobilize, follow what evidence was available, and stay firm in his resolve that we have to reopen.
We always knew the rate of reopening would be different for different parts of the country. If Trump tried to force a one size fits all plan on the country he would be called a tyrant or worse. And it doesn’t make any sense to do that. We always knew that blue state governors would be loathe to open up sooner. They are beginning to see civil disobedience. The citizens have a say.
We have to remember that this is a worldwide economic depression. Of all the countries I know of, the USA is more capable of quickly rebuilding and getting back to some semblance of normal. Even if we have to do it while fighting the virus. We have it better than many countries.
So, I’m still thinking Trump has done okay, considering the political situation in this country.
Earth to Fauchi: Shut up !
I’m seeing some start to attack the whole idea of “social distancing” as a disease control policy. I’d suggest they look at the numbers. According to the CDC map, half the U.S. cases and deaths are in New York and four states that border it: Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
Outside of the weirdly high number of cases and deaths in Michigan and Illinois, this whole thing is almost just the terrible policies in one high density city spreading the disease out to the surrounding states.
Mike
Well, I will say it. I have never put much faith in Fauci;and have never understood why Trump did not kick him to the side of the road.
As we know, Trump started out by restricting travel from China, then other hotspots. Sensible guidelines for personal protection. Then Fauci and yes. Birx, started steering the bus and everything turned to (expletive deleted.) They, and Trump, gave cover to every tin-pot dictator in a state house.
Some suggest that Democrats want this to drag out to tar and feather Trump with the result. I wonder why anyone would want to try to govern the stinking mess that will be left at the end–if there ever is an end.
Example of Tin-pots in action. Went fishing this AM. Pulled up at 5:30AM to the pleasant little park where I periodically launch my kayak into the bay. Found all of the parking blocked off with crime tape. This is a nice park, very small play area for kids, very small beach where kids wade in the bay or play on the sand. Kayakers, float tubers and paddle boarders launch for solo activities. No threat to anyone. Two weeks ago it was open even as Gruesome Newsom had the big beaches shut down. Drove 15 miles and launched in another municipality. No issue. Sign says beach closed; but, if you take the trouble to go to the municipal Covid-19 website, you learn that crossing the sand to launch is permitted. The rules make no sense; and no one can keep up with the bouncing rules.
You left out tetanus. Henry Adams sister died of tetanus after a carriage accident in Italy.
The IHME models underwent a major revision a little more than a week ago. The Utah model is now tracking very well, if a bit under the actual number of deaths. It is amazing what happens when actual data becomes available 🙂 My part of Utah is opening up, it is beginning to feel almost normal. The end of the beginning?
Neo’s post is on the subject of COVID19 prognostications. I’d like to think that this link is relevant: https://www.covid-projections.com/
The web site displays projections made by IHME and LANL, two well known COVID-19 models. It’s possible to see how their projections have changed over time. Unfortunately, the plots only go back to 4-16-2020. The projections for individual states have been especially erratic.
The rest of my comment is a little off-topic, but I’d like to recommend two recent COVID-19 papers.
“OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf
This is a large, detailed multivariable analysis done in the UK. The results are clearly summarized in table 2 (starts on page 8) and in figure 3 (page 11). At least for the UK, this study answers the difficult question of the influence of pre-existing conditions or comorbidities. Included are sex, poverty, and ethnicity. Surprisingly, current smokers fare better than those who have never smoked. Hypertension was also a surprise: high blood pressure (140/90 mmHg) at the most recent measurement was associated with lower risk.
“The Possible Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm and Associated Mortality in COVID-19 Patient”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058578v3.full.pdf
This preprint is a good example of the papers now being published on the therapeutic role of vitamin D for COVID-19 patients. The OpenSAFELY paper cited above documents the role of ethnicity in COVID-19. Their results support the hypothesis that skin color and vitamin D play a role in susceptibility to the COVID-19 virus. I’ve started to take a vitamin D supplement, but this may be even more important for people with darker skin. Along with the beneficial effect of UV light, this is another good reason to get outside. Several clinical trials have been started to test the effect of vitamin D on COVID-19, so it’s fair to say that this is a serious line of research, not just more mumbo-jumbo about supplements.
P.S. I’d like to second JimNorCal’s recommendation of the third interview of Dr. Jay Bhattacharya. The interviews were done by Peter Robinson for the always interesting program “Uncommon College.” The third interview was depressing, but important for the issue of moving forward. There aren’t any good choices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=289NWm85eas
Well, I will say it. I have never put much faith in Fauci;and have never understood why Trump did not kick him to the side of the road.
As we know, Trump started out by restricting travel from China, then other hot spots. He issued sensible guidelines for personal protection. Then Fauci and yes. Birx, started steering the bus and everything turned to (expletive deleted.) They, and Trump, gave cover to every tin-pot dictator in a state house.
Some suggest that Democrats want this to drag out to tar and feather Trump with the result. I wonder why anyone would want to try to govern the stinking mess that will be left at the end–if there ever is an end.
Tinpots in action. Went fishing this AM. Pulled up at 5:30AM to the pleasant little park where I periodically launch my kayak into the bay. Found all of the parking blocked off with crime tape. This is a nice park, very small play area for kids, very small beach where kids wade in the bay or play on the sand. Kayakers, float tubers and paddle boarders launch for solo activities. No threat to anyone. Drove 15 miles and launched in another municipality. No issue. Sign says beach closed; but, if you take the trouble to go to the municipal Covid-19 website, you learn that crossing the sand to launch is permitted. The rules make no sense; and no one can keep up with the bouncing rules.
Typo in my comment above. “Uncommon College” should be “Uncommon Knowledge.” Is uncommon knowledge uncommon at college? I swear I proofread my comments, but I’m a terrible typist, and my fingers seem to have a mind of their own.
Montage lives in Los Angeles. That explains his somewhat disordered assessments. He is a member of that herd, not of ours. He is also easily impressed by blather, which is what much of Fauci’s Wiki entry is.
Fauci is a physician in name only. He is assuredly not a public health official. Yes, he is an immunologic scientist. but mostly he flies a desk.
Do you know anything about the authorship politics of scientific/medical papers, Montage? The big names write none of them, not a word, but they are sought as co-authors.
Someone who misrepresents himself (public health official) is not to be accepted as issuing Holy writ when he utters his own opinions. He is a gift to collectivists who love to see humans herded like the sheep that have been forced, or misled, into thinking that is what they are.
Simpler version: I have gotten to the point where I no longer put any trust in the prognostications of scientists.
Much of science, like much of modern life, has become polluted by politics.
Oldflyer 8:24, enjoyed the launch story.
One infuriating thing about this is that the state, your county and your city ALL have a separate body of roles and laws
They conflict. Not only that but each jurisdiction changes as time passes
Thanks cornflour. The high blood pressure info is interesting. Early on I read that certain B/P meds lowered risk. Perhaps because they bound with cellular receptors that Covid also wanted. The conflict slowed the infection to a pace where the body could organize defenses. Then another article a couple weeks later said a different B/P med meant you had a higher risk. Different cellular pathways were invoked as the reason
So much data to process!
Humans are rather stupid sheep. The more I see, the more that truth bears itself out. Your “know nothing” SMEs (Subject Matter Experts) are as incompetent as they are arrogant.
Not even the US President is immune to trusting in Fauci or Comey or any number of Deep State agents.
Did Americans really think they were immune to fascism? They were too exceptional to suffer the power of the Divine?
Repent and rethink your way, or else.
They, and Trump, gave cover to every tin-pot dictator in a state house.
This is a good lesson to those here from 2015 primaries, that said Trum would not become a dictator. because the media would hold him accountable… haha, no seriously that’s what people here thought and wrote.
Ridiculous, but convincing to those political weaklings that needed a strong hero to save them from themselves.
It’s not that Trum refuses to save you. It’s that there are no saviors. You will Fall, just as the angels fell and die just as mortals have died. There are no exceptions. No take backs in this game.
He has followed the advice of Fauci and Birx, who are widely admired and respected
Haha. Widely admired and respected… like Comey and Mueller? Hahaa
Fauci, for those that don’t know this, is a vaccine profiteer, same con being run with WHO/CDC/Wuhan bio lab/Harvard/Gates foundation.
I’ve been thinking about Prohibition, and how that relates to our current situation.
Unquestionably, there was a big problem with drunkenness and associated pathologies in the US in the early 1900s. There were plenty of reasonable things that could have been done to deal with the problem. But instead, *all* drinking of alcoholic beverages, by *anyone* was banned.
Similarly, reasonable restrictions to deal with Covid-19 were, in many cases, supplemented by increasingly-ridiculous rules put in place by state/local officials of the ‘respect-mah-authoriteh” brand. And this has led to an understandable public reaction against *any* restrictions.
A big reason the mortality in the Netherlands appears to be so high is that ONLY the most severe cases get tested at all, in other words the cases most likely to die.
Nobody who doesn’t go through 3 layers of triage gets tested at all, except some people with high risk professions. And everyone except that last small group is 1) all certain to be infected and 2) needs urgent hospital treatment because of it.
With that bit of knowledge, it’s a surprise the mortality figures in the Netherlands aren’t much higher!
I’ve had it myself (and after 2 months still feeling the effects on my lungs). I never was tested, but compared my disease progression and symptoms with those of several people who were tested with mild cases (doctors, a nurse, and my sister who works in HR for our ministry of justice in a sensitive position), and it was identical.
Our healthcare system here was creaking to the point of nearly cracking for weeks. The “smart lockdown” as it was termed is working though, hospital admissions are down to where we’re feeling able to slowly, gradually, open things up again. Baby steps, see what the effects are after 2 weeks (long enough to notice if infection rates are up sharply or not), and then decide what we can do next.
It’s a nasty bug, but you can barely compare figures between countries because of the very different environments in those countries.
Sweden’s reporting likely is very bad for example, much like the Chinese.
What, no one but Ymarsakar taking a shot at me. I expected at least some debate. 🙂
Cornflour, your comment vis a vis vitamin D and ethnicity struck me as something I have noticed here in Snohomish County. The most affected ethnicities have been Latinos, Pacific Islanders, Native Americans and African Americans in that order. Asians and Caucasians have been much less affected.
On a link that AesopFan posted a few days back, the author recommended Vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, quercetin, and melatonin as a supplement regime to increase resistance to the infection. Here in the Pacific Northwest most people tend to be low in vitamin D because we have such long, dark winters. But I think most people here know they should take some supplementary D. It would be a great thing if such a simple thing as a vitamin was important in preventing bad outcomes.
Here’s that link:
https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf
There is definitely some physiological reason why some people have mild symptoms and others get deathly ill. But what it is, no one knows. While being old and infirm is an issue, we have had quite a few elderly people here survive very bad infections. Why? Obviously keeping the virus out of nursing homes is very important and that requires careful testing of both residents and the caretakers as well as rules about who can come in. Florida seems to have done a good job with their nursing homes. But maybe the residents there just have more vitamin D and the warm weather attenuates the virus. That could be a factor as well. So many mysteries. We really are groping our way in the dark.
There is no such thing as 100% safety in this life. People who cannot face this obvious fact have no place in ruling.
People who do not understand this can barely be considered suitable to voters, let alone rulers.
The cases in New Zealand are now effectively zero. The small number we do have are all directly related to a known case, or who have recently come in from overseas. There is no transmission in the wild at all. (And allowing for the time lag to symptoms, it was actually beaten three weeks ago.)
Yet there are people refusing to go to work or send their children to school “because of the risk”. The actual risk involved would be the drive to work or school, not CV.
J.J.,
I suppose Trump has done alright AFTER he gave in to the Fauci/Birx duo on the 30 day extension but I just don’t like him relying on these two when there have been so many serious scientists from Stanford, Harvard, Oxford etc. with differing views but he seems under their thrall.
I guess I would say Trump made a wrong turn and is now lost but he is driving the car quite nicely as he continues to go further off course. Or in your parlance he’s flying the plane nicely just not on the right flight plan and I fear our entire economy is going to run out of fuel before too long as he flies us off into the abyss.
A quick note on the apparent 7 day cycle of cases: somewhere in almost every path of the long paper chains of collecting, collating and disseminating the stats are people who take the weekend off.
Why don’t the demands for total safety sound ridiculous to the public? Because the bar has been lowered so far that words can be defined as “unsafe”; the language has been polluted in the service of advantage.
It’s the entitlement mentality.
75% of the American people think they’re entitled to perfect health and safety, and that you are required to sacrifice your liberty, give up your life, and everything you’ve ever worked for, in order to provide it.
“Party of two?” “Your name sir.”
“Galt, John Galt, but don’t try to find me.”
Neo, I think you’ll find this interview quite interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY
It’s Johan Giesecke, the mind behind the Swedish strategy, “advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO“
What, no one but Ymarsakar taking a shot at me. I expected at least some debate.
If You had attacked Trum on some kind of fault, they would have argued against it. But because you are “Of the Tribe”, you can get a pass as debating you is a waste of energy given people’s priorities on surviving.
I have a standard metric that people can figure out. Any time people tell me to Obey Authority or your SMEs, or Obey the Police, or Else, my counter Y response is always: Or else what?
2020 is just where “slightly more” people online and here, get on the same page as Y. Assuming any of you survive to 2021.
I already know Trum’s big game plan. It is quite obvious given Q. Fauci is basically being hanged out to dry and is attracting all the backlash soon to come. Trum in his briefings stressed multiple times that “he was told to shut the economy down”. That is a rather passive and all too emotionally accepting format for this Big Mars fighter of a leader, to act in. Trum does what he is “told to do” I see… is this the same guy telling Cruz to get out of America because his father is some kind of Castro traitor that helped kill Kennedy? That doesn’t sound like the same Trum, instead of “You Are fired”, he is “doing what the WHO/CDC/Fauci” tells him because “millions of Americans would die”? Lol
What game is Trum pulling here. A con against the con artists? Deceive your allies to deceive your enemies… something like that.
Trum does whatever the hell he feels is correct for himself and America (which he considers as his now). Trum is not just going to “listen to people tell him he needs to shut down the economy” unless he knows what is going to happen.
So what has happened? Trum has allowed the Deep State and the Leftist alliance, to shoot their load, and come out of the dark shadows. So you Americans can wake up for once and see for yourself, that the Deep State sh ain’t some reality tv Trum setup as an Apprentice. If that kills 1 to 3 billion humans on Earth? Oh well, some eggs need to be cracked to make omelets, as your human leaders say. That’s not a joke. The Deep State Doomsday weapons for 2020, is easily capable of doing so, if my faction and the one backing Trum, had not stopped them.
to achieve that safety, many advocate the continuation of measures
And some large number of those have jobs that continue to pay them as they work from home or are otherwise retained (like gov’t workers). This doesn’t totally discount their advice, but it should put a YUGE thumb on the scale when evaluating it.
Ymarsakar on May 13, 2020 at 7:14 am said
“Trum”?
On a link that AesopFan posted a few days back, the author recommended Vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, quercetin, and melatonin as a supplement regime to increase resistance to the infection.
It’s called “make food your medicine, and medicine your food”. Some old white fart nobody pays much attention to, apparently originated the concept. https://www.drgoodfood.org/en/news/let-food-be-thy-medicine-hippocrates
Apparently doctors are now in the business of getting vaccine and drug kickbacks for ordering patients to take such, which doesn’t cure much of anything now.
And yes, humanity is in the dark, mostly because of pride and arrogance in their ego sciences.
You are not allowed on beaches because that might improve your immune system using the sun and the naturally produced vitamin D. No guarantee that your digestion system can even digest the so called “V D”.
GWB, the President of the United States? Here we go again.
Jim Lee on May 13, 2020 at 6:14 am said:
“Party of two?” “Your name sir.”
“Galt, John Galt, but don’t try to find me.”
You know, I want to help them out. I really do.
But, they’ve broken trust so many times, now – both gov’t and corporate – that I just don’t really want to give them anything now.
A free republic requires trust. And trust ultimately requires small power/scope in gov’t, and a people that will govern themselves (e.g., morals). The left has worked insidiously to overthrow both of those things for 100 years or more, and has greatly succeeded.
Ymarsakar on May 13, 2020 at 7:25 am said:
GWB, the President of the United States? Here we go again.
GWB = me
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120513144619.htm
There’s what people think viruses are during Corona 2020. And then there’s what viruses actually are.
Let’s see how many so called high IQ Mensa level girls and boys can figure it out before the end of this century.
Most of the “experts” accepted prof. Ferguson’s predictions at the start.
Now his code has been examined it has proved to be not fit for purpose.
If the “experts” had examined the code and not noticed how bad it was, what else haven’t they noticed?
If the “experts” simply took prof Ferguson’s word, then what else have they taken on trust?
The “experts” have discredited themselves .
@Griffin, I have been slowly coming around to your point of view. Here’s a comment from AT this morning that I liked. The longer this goes on, the more I blame Trump for lack of judgement on Fauci et al. and not eliciting other opinions.
@Yamar, maybe Trump is playing a longer game to expose the Deep
State, time will tell. You and Q obviously agree.
From Paul Zecchino: “The President should have immediately sought a second opinion after hearing fauci & ferguson’s spook stories. He didn’t. Apparently unwilling to ‘meltdown’ the marxstream media, he chose instead to meltdown his legacy economy, our liberty, and millions of citizens lives along with it. He owns every bit of this national mass psychosis over a cold bug. Florida Governor DeSantis was all for reopening, until the President called him to DC for a little chat. And now the highway checkpoints are still at I-10, I-95, and I-75 at the Florida state lines, harassing travelers and causing traffic jams and the state is still largely closed. He publicly scolded Georgia Governor Kemp for reopening three weeks ago. But as Limbaugh noted, the press hasn’t mentioned Georgia since because that state opened smoothly. So does the President really want the nation to reopen? Or is he insincere? The President started this destruction by ordering the nation to shut down. His order threw wrenches into the gears of a humming economy which hadn’t run so well in thirty years, since Reagan. He owns this. Sure, he talks big about reopening, ‘coming back twice as strong’, blah blah blah. But things remain shut. Big of him to not upset the press. Because they’re sure to reward him come campaign season by vilifying him until election day when he may lose. He owns this. He started this, and now claims it’s not his to end it but rather state governors. But he started it and he can end it. But he won’t. Little fauci might get upset, and this corrupt little creep is now the de facto president.
There, I’ve said it. Let all the apologists come forward now to scold me for so saying. You think I care? I don’t. It is what it is.”
It seems to me that the best policy would be, first, to acknowledge and accept the reality that–despite any steps we might take–there will be a large number of deaths—many tens of thousands–due to the Chinese Coronavirus.
Next, since all the data indicate that those most at risk are the elderly, and especially the elderly who have some pre-existing condition–like obesity, high blood pressure, asthma, COPD—which increases their susceptibility, it is this group of people on which most of the preventative measures should be focused.
Other than this particularly susceptible group, our economy should be opened back up, the rest of our population should go back to living their lives and working—all with the knowledge that some of them, as well, will become ill, and some of them will—despite our best efforts–die.
Rough if it’s you or a loved one who gets sick and perhaps dies but, that’s just the way it is.
As the British motto has it, our policy and attitude should be to, “Keep calm and carry on.”
(Para) And there are plenty of people who would like to use all of it to destroy
Trump’s and the GOP’sUSA’S chances of victory in November.I remember Dr. Fauci from 1985 as AIDS was making its way through the public consciousness. The predictions that year were even more dire than the predictions regarding Corona virus and all those predictions turned out to be WRONG! When this Corona Virus came to attention in America back in January and he reappeared on the news I thought “wow he is still around?” The man will be 80 on Christmas Eve. I do agree with you Jaye – the Left wants to crash the economy and bring on another Great Depression so they can take absolute power. I am skeptical about all these ‘experts’ – they are never held to account when they are wrong.
The President should have immediately sought a second opinion after hearing fauci & ferguson’s spook stories.
The problem is from whom? If he sought the second opinion from people also in the bureaucracy or academia – the other “experts” – he would have gotten much the same answer: Zero Risk. IOW, lock it all down.
The only way he might have gotten a different answer would have been to consult doctors actually successfully treating Wuhan Flu patients. And that wouldn’t be likely, given the bureaucratic apparatus surrounding his office.
Working on my daily stats, and wanted to say that for the first time since March 1 the number of new cases went down by 13,000. Could be a reporting error, we’ll see tomorrow.
Trump is Trump and he is not Hillary, that alone was worth my vote and my expectations of Supreme Court nominations have been exceeded. Along with those big things Trump has done a good job, up until now with the economy and working hard to put America first which means according to the Democrats and media, who govern with a lot of fear, the nation was/is in danger of Trump’s reelection since they botch Russia and impeachment.
No matter what decisions Trump made or will make in the future he cannot be allowed to be successful so COVID-19 has to be the monster and it’s all Trump’s fault.
This blog continues to be an island of sanity in a crazy world.
That said …
Were you expecting a critique? Not from me. I enjoy reading the give-and-take between polite commenters. It is very refreshing in the world of social media.
And physicsguy, please keep posting your analyses of the Covid-19 stats. If you weren’t a Professor somewhere Academia lost a superstar.
physicsguy
Working on my daily stats, and wanted to say that for the first time since March 1 the number of new cases went down by 13,000. Could be a reporting error, we’ll see tomorrow.
That wasn’t a day-to-day drop (22,802). As new cases are a function of how many are tested, I look at new cases w a grain of salt. Daily deaths vary quite a bit, but 7-day averages have been consistently dropping. The peak 7-day average occurred at 15-21 April- 2199 deaths. The most recent 7-day average is 1,590, a drop of 28% from the peak.
7-day averages, COVID-19 (Winnie the Flu) deaths.
15-21 Apr 2,199
22- 28 April 1,962
29 Apr-5 May 1,858
6-12 May 1,590
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Y said: ‘Trum has allowed the Deep State and the Leftist alliance, to shoot their load, and come out of the dark shadows”
I think it’s been Instapundit who said that this has poisoned the well for an entire layer of Dem Governors. None of them will ever be elected President after what they’ve done to their state’s citizens.
But yeah, we’re a LONG way down the wrong path. Today: Facebook, Google and the entire Cal State University system will extend working-from-home/distance-learning till the end of the year.
These big names are beginning the process of providing cover to the Dem politicians who want to shut down the US indefinitely … or, at least, to the November election.
Fauci is the literal embodiment of “SCIENCE!”. As the most senior person around, there is no higher authority to hear sacred opinions from. He is the literal pope of the left’s church. To doubt him or ask to hear a different opinion than his is to reject SCIENCE!, to become what you accuse your deplorable Republican enemies of every moment. To question him is the same as questioning if the earth is round. That is why he is allowed to rule our lives, just as the pope did from afar for european christians centuries ago.
As far as that “hero” nonsense, being one of said “heroes”, I’m having a harder and harder time ignoring anyone (and not snapping at them) who brings that up. I’m just doing my job and practicing common sense to avoid a catchy common cold. That’s it. The heroes are those that have lost everything and be forced to remain on the government dole for the rest of their lives or the people that have had to put off needed surgeries or treatments because they are considered “non-essential” if they don’t deal with the cold that was going around.
Gringo, yep! For about two weeks, especially in certain states, there was a jump in cases due entirely from increased testing. So the decrease yesterday could have been from an off day in testing. Your data on deaths correlates well with mine on the lack of significant increase in serious cases.
Tuvea: retired a year and half ago from academia. I enjoyed it except for the last 15 years after the crazies took over and it became sheer misery to come in. The students were still good. Had the best class ever in 37 years that graduated in 2015. A weird synchronicity where all 8 of them (small liberal arts college so the number of physics majors is small) would have been the top student in any other year. What a group!
Anyone in a decision-making position will likely, sooner or later, need to rely on the advice of “experts” who know more than he does about a particular subject. Sometimes, though, the apparent expert is not the expert really needed. Here’s a case in point:
In 1914, as Europe moved toward catastrophe, Kaiser Wilhelm II was getting cold feet at the prospect of a two-front war. After being told that Britain would remain neutral..and also guarantee France’s neutrality, if Germany would limit itself to attacking Russia, he called in his Chief of Staff, von Moltke, and directed him to redeploy the forces that were destined for the attack in the West and send them to the Russian front instead. Barbara Tuchman writes of Moltke’s reaction.
“Aghast at the thought of his marvelous mobilization wrenched into reverse, Moltke refused point-blank. For ten years, first as assistant to Schlieffen, then as his successor, Moltke’s job had been planning for this day, The Day, Der Tag, for which all Germany’s energies were gathered, on which the march to final mastery of Europe would begin. It weighed upon him with an oppressive, almost unbearable responsibility…Now, on the climactic night of August 1, Moltke was in no mood for any more of the Kaiser’s meddling with serious military matters, or with medling of any kind of the fixed arrangements. To turn around the deployment of a million men from west to east at the very moment of departure would have taken a more iron nerve than Moltke disposed of. He saw a vision of the deployment crumbling apart in confusion, supplies here, soldiers there, ammunation lost in the midle, companies without officers, divisions without staffs, and those 11,000 trains, each exquisitely scheduled to click over specified tacks at specified intervals of ten minutes, tangled in a grotesque ruin of the most perfectly planned military movement in history.
“Your majesty,” Moltke said to him now, “it cannot be done. The deployment of millions cannot be improvised…Those arrangements took a whole year of intricate labor to complete…and once settled, it cannot be altered.”
“Your uncle would have given me a different answer,” the Kaiser said to him bitterly.”
It was not until after the war that General von Staab–Chief of the Railway Division and the man who would have actually been responsible for the logistics of the redirection–learned about this interchange between Moltke and the Kaiser. Incensed by the implied insult to the capabilities of his bureau, he wrote a book, including pages of detailed charts and graphs, proving that it could have been done.
So, what happened here? The Kaiser trusted his military expert, von Moltke–but the *real* expert in railway operations (and this was substantially a railway question)–disagreed. At the time of decision-making, von Staab’s personal opinion was never even solicited.
The economic gravity of our present circumstances cannot be too loudly stated.
-US GDP decline of 6.6% in 2020 (WSJ)
-Total federal debt in ten years totals $41 trillion (CBO)
-the Pelosi crowd wants another $3 trillion to fund left-wing stuff, including $1200 payments to every illegal migrant.
We must face the fact that China is at war with the USA. Fentanyl produced in China (tons of the stuff!) with full knowledge/approval of Beijing will kill 30,000 Americans this year. The Wuhan virus will kill maybe 200,000.
And we can’t do sh*t about it.
No one knows what to do, but we will…soon…in a few more weeks.
It has to be chemistry. How can you otherwise have such a disparity in outcomes? Some folks have a loss of smell and some folks die from anoxia? Some folks get the sniffles and some folks have a pulmonary whiteout and need a ventilator for three weeks? Come on…
Man is superb on technology problems. Don’t worry. We will find a drug or a food or a chemical supplement that will cause the great Covid19 epoch to disappear. The viruses won’t want to enter our cells because the chemistry of the cell is noisome and has changed. We are too smart. The chemists have too many great tools. Can you imagine in four months we know the exact RNA sequence and all the proteins of this virus and exactly its structure? This is going to be our last pandemic.
China is at neo-war with the USA – economically, culturally, diplomatically, biologically, but not yet in military fighting (tho an increasing number of fighters flying near ships in the “international” South China Sea).
Only Nixon could go to China – because commies had been demonized. Accurately. Since then, the Chinese crony capitalist/ fascist/ neo-commie economy has been growing at decade rates never before seen.
But the pain of the Chinese Covid-19 is going to be blamed on China, by Trump. Naturally the Dems will try to blame it on Trump & Reps — and Trump’s defense is already clear: he wanted limited shutdown earlier, by Jan 31. The Dems called that racist for weeks.
Who will the US voters blame? Trump or China?
@JimNorCal : “The moment we open up, the infections will begin again. ”
That’s the claim but I think smart opening can keep it much smaller. (I wanted to say “minimize”, but hard lockdown does that for the Wuhan virus.) Yes on wearing masks whenever inside with strangers — stores. Very limited (2 persons? 4 persons? max) restaurants. Yes to stores with doors open to the outside; Not Yet for enclosed malls.
Wearing masks outside makes any restrictions easier, and the optimal trade-off requires some restrictions.
Virtually all outdoor activities with young people should be allowed.
Day care centers & kindergartens should be re-opened, tho with more care for the older care-givers.
More protection for hospitals and long term care places, but open hospitals to elective health care.
I predict China’s growth in 2020 and 2021 will be more negatively affected by the Wuhan virus than the econ growth in the USA.
But, if Trump loses in 2020, the USA loses, and China wins a big battle in their neo-war against Free America …
I predict that within a week or so, starting with Harvard, who will read out their marching orders to the rest of the country, all colleges will declare that their campuses will be closed for the fall semester…and this, weeks before summer even starts. This will set the stage for permanent general lockdowns and lockdown edicts to remain in place until January 2021, when a Democrat is inaugurated and the virus is officially decreed to be no longer a concern.
Remember Harvard started the generalized lockdown back in March when it wouldn’t host the Ivy League basketball tournament, which lead to all sports being cancelled, and in short order the shutdown of every state and the economy in general.
Expect an announcement to come soon on the cancellation of school in the fall. The college vote seemed to be unreliable and lukewarm with their darling Bernie pushed aside/screwed over, but these measures enacted early could ensure that college students are a motivated and reliable voting bloc come November (especially with no tests, term papers, or social commitments to worry about).
Dnaxy on May 13, 2020 at 1:13 pm said:
Man is superb on technology problems. Don’t worry. We will find a drug or a food or a chemical supplement that will cause the great Covid19 epoch to disappear.
—————
Yes, the “supplement” that will be found that causes the virus to disappear will be national mail-in voting for the November election.
Tom Grey…”yes on wearing masks whenever inside with strangers — stores. Very limited (2 persons? 4 persons? max) restaurants. Yes to stores with doors open to the outside; Not Yet for enclosed malls. Wearing masks outside makes any restrictions easier, and the optimal trade-off requires some restrictions.
Virtually all outdoor activities with young people should be allowed.”
This is the level of detail that needs to be discussed, preferably with actual supporting quantitative data. Haven’t seen much of that…a little bit here:
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
Things have gotten too binary…one the one hand, there are those asserting that “there’s really no problem, this is all a plot by Bill Gates (or someone) to make money on vaccines” and on the other hand, those who believe that any restriction handed down by government officials of the ‘respect-mah-authoriteh’ brand must be treated as holy write.
In a mans world we took risks
its not a mans world any more
we cant play, we cant compete, and on and on
its a womans world, were everything is scary
and everyone is a victim of everyone else
except one class, which when gone, will bring in the ‘age of Aquarius’
Bottom line: The Age of Aquarius begins when the March equinox point moves out of the constellation Pisces and into the constellation Aquarius. But there’s no definitive answer as to when that will be.
Griffin, Om —
As of Sunday the West Seattle Home Depot had nobody at the main door restricting entry anymore, and only about 2/3 of the people inside (staff included) had masks on. The only security was a guy at the garden entrance directing people to the main entrance.
physicsguy, Gringo —
The Washington State numbers for new cases have plateaued right around 240/day (7-day average) since April 19 after a peak of 463 on April 1.
Deaths have plateaued at 9.5/day (7-day average) since May 2 after a steep decline from the peak of 25 on April 7.
(Or in other words back where we were on March 22-24, approximately when the lockdown started.)
Tom Grey: “I predict China’s growth in 2020 and 2021 will be more negatively affected by the Wuhan virus than the econ growth in the USA.”
I have no way to know, but qualitatively my Chinese friends say the Chinese economy has been plastered by their shutdown, disruptions to travel and freight, and the ongoing and severe exits of foreign companies.
I would bet cash money on your prediction.
physicsguy,
You haven’t lost the ability to make difficult concepts understandable.
Thanks again for explaining the numbers so plainly.
Bryan Lovely,
Pierce county had its lowest new cases yesterday since April 11 and no deaths which has happened quite a few times. It really is no longer an issue in Pierce county but of course no one will say that.
“As of Sunday the West Seattle Home Depot had nobody at the main door restricting entry anymore, and only about 2/3 of the people inside (staff included) had masks on. ”
At my local Home Depot this weekend, it was down to much less than that. We stopped at a busy gas station/convenient store yesterday and didn’t see a single face mask. I sense that while there’s still lots of posturing in social media, in practical real life people in my area are starting to realize that none of this was necessary here. Most of the people who died in this area didn’t catch coronavirus at the store; they caught it while lying in bed in the nursing home, hospice or other care facility.
I have an acquaintance affected by the egregious actions in LA County and there is no sympathy among that set of people. Not even joking – riots loom.
fibross on May 13, 2020 at 2:39 pm said:
“… Harvard started the generalized lockdown back in March when it wouldn’t host the Ivy League basketball tournament, which led to all sports being cancelled, and in short order the shutdown of every state and the economy in general.”
Fascinating!
This is starting to become a “back-water” thread and maybe few are following comments anymore but I would love to hear how others perceive the sequence in which the shutdowns commenced.
For me: on NextDoor, a group of hysterical parents posted “You MUST shut down schools!!! It’s for the children.” Others said “So, keep your kid home”. Response: “It’s not an excused absence”. Others said “If you truly believe your child is in danger, don’t wait for permission to save them”. But hysteria continued.
Schools shut down. Businesses began to announce work-from-home (“Google is shutting down, how come Facebook isn’t? I don’t want to die!”).
Now you had schools and high-profile workplaces.
Then a group of politically progressive county commissioners in 7(?) local counties decreed a shutdown for those counties (San Francisco and Silicon Valley). Next, Gov Newsom shutdown the entire state, including counties which to this day have 0 deaths and 0 cases.
Once CA shut down, there was a parade of other states which followed.
That’s the sequence that I experienced. I’m not a “tin foil” hat kinda guy, but if someone went back and ID’ed all those early hysterical NextDoor posts, I wonder if you’d find any evidence of astroturf.
For the record, recently Google and Facebook announced work-from-home extending till end of year. And the entire Cal State University system decreed no in-person classes before end of year. So a bunch of pro-Dem orgs are doing their part in providing cover for any Dem who wants to extend the shutdown indefinitely.
Bryan and Griffin:
And yet King Jay (The Madness of King Jay) is all in on the CCC (Contagion Contact Corps) for WA, to trace those contacts and confine them until, whenever. The New Jay Deal. His army of contact tracers will include the National Guard, local Public Health employees, and a multitude of Karens (?). Well maybe not all Karens but in spirit they will be.
om,
Yes, Pierce county with a population of over 800,000 had 5 new cases yesterday. 5!!!!
His Royal Pomposity’s crew of tracers will have an easy job here.
This entire saga in some ways seems like it’s been going on forever and in others like a flash. It was March 12 that they locked down my mom’s facility and no one has been in to see her since and she has been out four times. One of the things that people should take from this (but probably won’t) is that if you give govt a little they will take a lot. Remember 15 days to stop the spread? Good times! That was almost 2 months ago. Now some areas of California are going into August.
Hopefully Elon Musk has inspired others.
Griffin:
Will King Jay mandate/require testing of asymptomatic individuals in order to shift to the new phases of safety? Why not? He does have emergency powers after all, can’t be too careful. Safety is always first, or so I’ve been told.
om,
I think I saw his tracer crew is like 2,000 strong so I’m sure they’ll be tracking all of them and of course adding them to the total cases which will be used to constrain us for longer periods of time.
But from what I’ve seen and heard the restaurant registry has not gone over well even with people that have been supportive of this stuff previously. The comments of every article about it have been filled with people saying they’ll put down J. Inslee or Bob Ferguson or the always funny Amanda Hugenkiss. So how effective this will be is hard to say. I know if a restaurant asks for my ID then I’m gone and won’t be back. I’m not giving my phone and email to some rando at a restaurant for them to give the govt.
Griffin —
I haven’t seen any comment about the restaurant policy from my progressive friends on FB — but then again I’m limiting my exposure to FB for the sake of my blood pressure.
I’m just planning not to enter any restaurants, period. I’ll continue to use Uber Eats delivery, but Jay’s Kontaktverfolgungskorps can go F themselves as far as I’m concerned.
“Kontaktverfolgungskorps ” – Bryan
LOL
Well, it’s not really funny, but it’s a great way to subvert Godwin’s Law!
COVID is nothing to laugh at, but we need to laugh at something.
Kevin James comes to the rescue.
Out of Touch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOppMDE-x3k
A Quarantine Birthday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ps7u0X_oYA
Given that there is no more focus on china, this is where i have to put this…
china just wrote a paper in a think tank
“in order to improve US-China relationship, why do we have to win over America’s wing”
i am trying to find the whole document..
but fast summary… they need the left in the US to be their army, and that the left and its elites were idiots for thinking that they would become different, and so funding and helping them, they look down on the people who empowered their enemy to be strong enough to defeat them