COVID or the flu?
A person gets a cough, a fever, fatigue. Ordinarily, that doesn’t engender much alarm. But this year of COVID is different. Almost anyone with those symptoms believes he or she might have it. Depending on the state or city, and depending on the severity of symptoms, many of them manage to secure a test. And the majority of them test negative for COVID.
There are also a lot of people who had similar symptoms earlier this winter and are convinced they had COVID back then. Maybe they did. But maybe they didn’t.
Actually, even now, chances are better that it was actually old-fashioned influenza. Flu can kill, too, but it infects tons of people and kills a very small percentage of them. For the vast majority, flu is a bother and a pain and nothing more.
So far this season (2019-2020), flu has infected many people, almost certainly way more than COVID (which so far appears to have a higher case fatality rate, although exactly how much higher has yet to be determined). Take a look at the CDC page for this year’s flu in the US, and see the kind of numbers I’m talking about. It says 39,000,000 – 55,000,000 cases of flu, 18,000,000 – 26,000,000 doctor visits, 400,000 – 730,000 hospitalizations, and 24,000 – 63,000 deaths.
It adds this:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary.
Influenza testing across the United States may be higher than normal at this time of year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. These estimates may partly reflect increases in testing in recent weeks and may be adjusted downward once the season is complete and final data for the 2019/20 season are available.
I wonder whether levels of flu have been going down since all this social distancing began, though. It seems logical to conclude that would be so.
When there was a limited number of tests available, my state was suggesting getting a flu test to rule out flu.
Once they get the supply of serology tests, I think a bunch of people will ask for those. I will even though what I had seemed like a mild cold. That way, I’ll know if I need a vaccine later in the year. The vaccine production might also be limited at first.
I’ve heard two people say that they each lost an 84-85 old relative to causes other than Covid that was tagged as Covid.
There’s money to be had from money budgeted for Covid relief if your claims are made relative to Covid.
That warps the data.
24k-63k deaths. Say 50,000 in 2019, expected 50,000 in 2020.
Many of the “expected” to die will get infected with SARS-Cov2, the virus. They’ll be recorded as either flu or virus. If they get more money from the gov’t for calling it the virus, it will be the virus.
It’s an art, not a science.
I read a comment that some 80% of those virus victims on ventilators die. But haven’t seen data about that (don’t believe it is generally that bad).
Also read that obesity is a big issue, haven’t seen any tracking of BMI. Barely anything on age, tho that was more quickly talked about.
Folk who were “close” to a heart attack, might get the virus and get a heart attack, and die of a heart attack. Which they got because they got caught by the virus. Could be called either.
For all co-morbidities, and all the big “usual killers”, there will be a lot of overlap with that, and age, and weight(?), and SARS-Cov2.
Plus a lot of NOT reporting the virus, if there are places where they want the virus deaths to be smaller.
We get to see in real time the creation of “garbage data”, or at least inconsistently measured data, which will be going IN to the models. None should be surprised at inconsistent, if not garbage, OUT of the models.
I read a comment by a doctor on a blog that said there WAS another flu that passed through in the Dec-Jan time frame. It was NOT corona virus. It has a name. It was fairly nasty but no one was dying, at least not in large numbers. So no effort was made to count and test for it.
Therefore … be wary of thinking “I already had it”
I live in sight of San Francisco International Airport. According to recent reports, the virus was present in Wu Han as early as August, but it was not recognized as novel until perhaps November and then the authorities suppressed information about it.
SFO is a major hub for travel to and from China. So is San Jose international and Oakland International. There is a teory by Dr. Victor DAvid Hanson, down at teh Hoover Institute in Stanford, that the virsu has been among us since perhaps September.
I know a number of family members and co-workers who suffered a variety of URI cases in November and December. I had something bery strange for about four days between Christmas and New Years. No fever, dry cough, extreme fatigue.
Since no fever, I thought it must have been some kind of cold, not a flu. Grandson had high fever for five days, went to emergency room, then sent home.
Daughter’s co-worker up in Seattle had similar five day bout of fever and fatigue and dry cough back in December. SEA TAC International is big China transit point.
Conjecture: This is really infectious but it presents very differently among the population. Many people are infected but exhibit few or mild or no symptoms .
Look at the numbers for California versus New York. And, look at the numbers for the SF Bay Counties versus the rest of California. (Most cases in California are in LA County and adjacent counties.)
None of this is dispositive, but I think a lot more people, at least in our area, have had it before it was a “thing”.
National numbers are mostly New York and New Jersey. And, I strongly suspect the cases are not in upstateupstate or Western New York State. Population density seems to be a big factor.
New Orleans had Mardi Gras, San Francisco had Chinese New Year, New York City had Times Square New Years and the ball drop, then the parade. All before the virus was identified as a concern.
I have my bandito face mask and I am doing social distancing, but I think we should replace the lockdowns with a more targeted approach.
Tom, the New York commuter belt sprawls over 20 counties and has a population of 19.5 million. In recent years, about 450 people in those 20 counties die on a typical day. There were in New York and New Jersey just shy of 800 deaths attributable to coronavirus yesterday. From noodling around a bit with news stories from Upstate and looking at the Pennsylvania numbers, I’m going to guess that about 95% of those deaths were in those 20 counties (and not in Upstate New York or the Philadelphia-oriented half of New Jersey). This is one nasty bug.
This year’s Winter Hong Kong Flu Season lasted only 5 weeks. Usually it’s at least twice this duration.
Wearing face masks, paying attention to personal hygiene, and social distancing make a huge difference.
Slightly OT, but I’m sure some of the readers here will find Mencius Moldbug’s latest output worth a look.
https://medium.com/@curtis.yarvin/plan-a-for-the-coronavirus-7db3997490c1
Zaphod,
I don’t know anything about the author, but his take on what is happening doesn’t correspond with what I’m seeing and his proposal sounds ludicrous. He appears to know it is ludicrous, and that’s why he states things like, “it’s so outside the box no one will understand” to try to convince the reader it is the reader’s fault for not agreeing with his approach. I think I did understand it. I just don’t think it is the correct approach. Even if it would be effective, it is entirely infeasible. He uses a lot of words and fancy terms, but why not just say, “everyone should surrender all their possessions and rights and make me supreme ruler and do exactly what I say, for as long as necessary?” That’s the summary of his approach, and is as likely to happen as his “plan.”
It will be Woodstockian … everyone thinks they had COVID19. I have a friend who recently checked in with an “I survived COVID-19” story in which this person basically detailed a bad flu episode and never actually got tested for anything – just assumes that anything that causes flu symptoms in March 2020 must be COVID-19.
Frankly, I’m so sick of the mindless nonsense that I will find dark humor when an antibody test comes out and some percent of the “I survived COVID-19” storytellers find out they never had it and some percent of the most obnoxious gloves-and-masks-in-public contingent find out they had it and never realized it.
Zaphod,
Thank you for reminding me of why I never paid any attention to Mencius Moldbug.
KyndyllG,
It’s already Woodstockian for me. A great fraction of the people I work with suffered from an unpleasant flu-like illness circa January, with symptoms similar to you-know.
To be blunt, I’d think it was in fact COVID-19, except no one knows anyone who died then.
That is not the case for those unequivocally diagnosed with it more recently.
Art Deco and erc rodson, there is good county by county info about New York State, updated daily or more often, here:
https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/see-new-york-state-map-of-coronavirus-cases-county-by-county.html?fbclid=IwAR0q_IX_KQ_YFxo1mMkwRqVjXEdmCkZRsN9waHWINsLfmjWPrhcr0D_sziI
Unfortunately, medical staff and medical examiners don’t have the time to analyze the data on patients who recovered or died. Maybe when the smoke clears, the government will set up a website where people can encode ALL the massive amounts of data from Covid-19 patients. That website should include a section for people who—in hindsight—suspect they had the virus before it was widely identified.
Here’s an article (from a comment at Insty) about Covid-19 that makes sense to me. The gist is that the virus attacks the iron in red blood cells that allow O2 levels to remain normal. Thus, the virus is creating severe anemia I many of its victims. It argues that O2 and blood transfusions should be the treatment of choice for critical patients rather than ventilators.
The article argues further that the Hydroxychloroquine treatment, when applied early enough, prevents the virus from attacking the iron in the red blood cells, thereby preventing anemia.
The article is not by a doctor but makes sense and may be a break through way of viewing the virus and the way to deal with it.
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/363873/#respond
J.J.
The Insty comment lead to an abstract from a medical research article from China dated March 30, 2020 with some supporting details. You have to scroll down to find it.
Anyway, our King, Jay Inslee is feuding again with President Trump. King Jay wants a federal stay at home policy for all 57 states because:
“Inslee said he’d like to see a national stay-at-home order, rather than the piecemeal ones put in place so far by states.
“Even if Washington gets on top of this fully, if another state doesn’t, it can come back and come across our borders two months from now,” Inslee said.”
From the Seattle Times. I assume he is worried about Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, or North Dakota; those teeming hot spots of Wuhan virus. I don’t know if Montana is locked down. Oregon is already locked down so King Jay can’t be worried about his southern border. But wait, maybe it’s Hawaii!
Also from the Seattle Times, WA and OR are sending the ventilators (500 and 140 respectively) provided by the Feds to NYC since they aren’t needed; that should make Mike Bunge happy or more worried.
J.J., om,
It really is stunning how these governors have become so blasé about these shutdowns. I know some of them are leftists but still up until about 6 weeks ago this would have been virtually unheard of for even a city or county now they just openly call for the whole freaking country. My fear at least here in WA is what in the hell is it going to take for him to lift this thing even a little?
Griffin:
When he runs out of money? We fund his grandiosity with our sales taxes after all. So when the entire state if flat busted it will be safe enough for King Jay?
Sorry to Neo and every one else for this inside baseball chatter. 🙂
J.J.
Here is the Insty comment link to the research abstract:
https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173
COVID-19: Attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism
om, thanks for the link. That’s the research abstract. What I was trying to get at was a comment further down. (about 5 hours ago by EricinDallas) It had a complete copy of an article written by someone who isn’t a doctor (Used libertmavenstockas a pseudonym), but has put together a bunch of reports and anecdotal evidence to make the argument that Covid-19 isn’t causing ARDS. Instead, it is causing acute anemia and hypoxia. It may be all wet, but it’s worth exploring because it seems to point at why HC + Z-Pak + ZN is working when used early enough in the disease.
The article is also posted in full in the comments section of Small Dead Animals. http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/04/05/wuhan-flu-21/
The vaccine is 15 months away. A viable treatment would save time, lives, and the economy. This could be tried in places like New York and Detroit where there are so many people dying. As DJT says, “What have we got to lose?”
Good old Jay. I don’t know where he gets his ideas from, but he reminds me of a younger Al Gore. Once they get an idea in their heads, there’s no changing their minds. 🙁