Super-Duper Tuesday
After the votes are counted on Super Tuesday the race for the nomination always starts looking more clear. So that should be the case by tomorrow, even in this murkier-than-usual season.
There are lots of prognostications; for example, see this from FiveThirtyEight:
Biden is now about twice as likely as Sanders to win a plurality of pledged delegates, according to our primary model, which gives him a 65 percent chance of doing so compared with a 34 percent chance for Sanders. This represents the culmination of a trend that has been underway in the model for about a week; it started to shift toward Biden once polls showed the potential for him to win big in South Carolina — and it anticipated a polling bounce in the Super Tuesday states if he did win big there. Still, even after South Carolina, Biden’s plurality chances had risen only to 32 percent, compared with 64 percent for Sanders. That means the polling bounce from the events of the past few days has been bigger than the model anticipated.
So they seemed to be saying that just a few days ago they were predicting a 2 to 1 chance that Sanders would win a plurality (not a majority) of the delegates, not just on Super Tuesday but on the first ballot at the convention. And now that ratio has suddenly reversed, more or less. Neither prediction is what you’d call very persuasive or powerful, and what’s more there’s this:
To be clear, however, there is still a lot of uncertainty. We’ve been talking about delegate pluralities, which obscures the fact that the most likely outcome in the model is still that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates. And we should note that the lack of a majority does not necessarily imply a contested convention. For instance, if Biden enters the convention with 46 percent of delegates and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg with 10 percent, they could strike a deal where Bloomberg delegates vote for Biden on the first ballot.
All of that is pretty obvious, IMHO. Of course Biden was going to get a bounce from his South Carolina victory plus the two dropouts (as well as others) suddenly endorsing him. That was one of the main points of Buttigieg and Klobuchar quitting – to elevate the sagging flagging Biden. But he doesn’t help his own cause by incidents like this:
However, it’s not like the Democratic voters have so many choices left that make any more sense than Biden. If I were a Democratic voter, I know I would be depressed right about now. Hey, I’m not a Democratic voter, and I’m still depressed that someone as obviously past his prime (and his prime was never particularly good) as Biden and/or as radical, raging, and just plain not healthy as Sanders can be the frontrunners in any major party. But that’s the way it is – unless someone from the outside swoops down and rescues the party, which I very much doubt will happen.
And another sad thing is that I think whoever is nominated, the 2020 election will be close. I know a lot of people think it will be a blowout for Trump, but I’m not one of those people. The nonstop propaganda war against Trump, plus his very own personality which some love and some hate, has made this election closer than I think it should be considering his accomplishments as president.
Biden said Super Thursday, but hey, he’s super experienced and lucid. 538 is listening to the dnc which fears the nomination of Sanders.
Biden’s very visible and seemingly increasing dementia makes him an extraordinarily dangerous choice for President.
Do we really want a guy who isn’t oriented enough to know what state he is in, or who says that Super Tuesday is on Thursday, a person who mistakes the office he is running for, a “fabulist” who has created an imaginary life–full of incidents that amplify his importance and toughness–and a person who can’t even remember or correctly recite the first couple of lines from the Preamble to the Constitution, to be the guy who is going to oversee, run, and be the steward of our government, the watchman guarding our liberties, the person who decides, in essence, on war or peace, and the person who has control over our military and nuclear weapons?
I think that, for any rational person, there is only one answer to that question.
P.S.–And I don’t think that it is anywhere near enough to guarantee that a Biden presidency will be OK, to just get a VP who is much more “all there”.
Too, Snow on Pine, Biden is about to be investigated to a “fare thee well” for his corrupt practices in office, practices visible to anyone who cares to look. He’s made his bed, thinking he’d never be called to account. Accounting is coming.
Well, see there, I mistakenly said Constitution when I should have said Declaration, which is why I shouldn’t be running the country.
The Democratic Party’s (and its MSM cohort’s) demonization of Trump has been an astounding success.
In fact, it has been so successful that certain Democrats may well start demonizing anyone with whom they disagree. (It’s already started.)
While Trump has accomplished a great deal in the face of extraordinary animosity, antagonism and “resistance”, the MAIN reason he ought to win is not his accomplishments but the sheer insanity, hypocrisy—and in Biden’s case, at least, corruption—of his opponent, whomever that opponent might be.
But as stated, if Biden is nominated, then it may well be closer than it really ought to be.
(And if Biden can actually remember just what office he’s running for, then it might even be closer than that….)
And….keeping it classy on the campaign trail:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/denver-democrat-faces-backlash-after-tweeting-solidarity-for-spreading-coronavirus-at-trump-rallies
Oh, and:
https://www.foxnews.com/media/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-baloney-good-morning-america-interview-docuseries
(But then, people generally do the best they can…. Don’t they?)
“Baloney”, she said…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hillary-clinton-ordered-give-sworn-deposition-over-emails-benghazi-after-judge-tosses
“And another sad thing is that I think whoever is nominated, the 2020 election will be close”
A very numerous group of our former countrymen have decided that the current Constitution with free speech, private property and gun rights, needs to be overwritten. They have also decided to make this change without following the legal forms available. And, finally, an increasing number are OK with innocent lives being put at risk in the resulting turmoil.
JimNorCal;
Rule 303 (now days Rule 308 or 223) will apply to them if they try it.
The vote fraud come November will be the decisive factor. Vote harvesting and ballot boxes found in the trunks of cars will proliferate.The GOP needs to up it’s game.
“If I were a Democratic voter, I know I would be depressed right about now. Hey, I’m not a Democratic voter, and I’m still depressed that someone as obviously past his prime (and his prime was never particularly good) as Biden and/or as radical, raging, and just plain not healthy as Sanders can be the frontrunners in any major party.
The very low turnout at the dem candidate rallies (carefully obscured by the media) is a certain barometer of just how depressed are the average democrat voter.
Nor is Biden nearly as moderate as he pretends:
Biden Taps Beto to ‘Take Care of the Gun Problem with Me’
https://pjmedia.com/election/biden-chooses-beto-take-your-ar-15-orourke-to-take-care-of-the-gun-problem-with-me/
Come November, the democrat leadership is going to be shocked at the low turnout on their side but they’ll never admit to themselves that the radicalism they are embracing has left behind mainstream democrats.
Watch for Trump to crucify the democrat nominee with video that condemns them with words out of their own mouth.
Maybe these two can swoop in and rescue the Democrats at their convention.
https://babylonbee.com/news/pinky-brain-announce-2020-run
I think Geoffrey is correct, and strongly think he should be correct, and also believe he’s correct about low Dem turnout.
But because I know I want to believe it, I’m not sure I’m seeing signs that might be there that show it’s wrong. Like, maybe low turnout in Dem primaries is because for most Dems, it doesn’t matter — they already know they will vote against Trump. And they’d prefer not to vote for a primary loser, which they can avoid doing by not voting at all.
Tho this could be wrong, too, and Trump wins a blow out. Which is what I want, so I know I need to be careful about seeing signs of it that aren’t quite there. Still, 80% Trump wins.
Will there be a COVID-19 Big Recession? or not? That might be a more important question for Trump than the Dem nominee.
Here’s a laugh-line from one of Barry’s links to FoxNews about Hillary:
“My reaction is, let’s follow the rules,” Clinton said. “We’ve got rules. We had rules last time and we have rules this time. I think it’s always a good idea to follow the rules. Everybody knew what they were when you got into it.”
This is shaping up to be another demonstration of the unhealthy relationship between African-Americans and the Democratic Party. For fairly legitimate reasons, black Democrats tend to support the establishment candidate. That then tends to prop up otherwise weak establishment candidates in the primaries, with those weaknesses becoming glaring in the general election.
Mike
Liz Warren coming in third in her own state?
PowerLine is also following the 3-way Repub Senate primary in AL
About 20 percent of the vote is in now. Tuberville has a 7 point lead over Sessions. Byrne is 9 points behind Sessions.
Well, these endorsements will surely seal the deal for Joe!
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/03/joe-biden-gains-endorsements-from-corrupt-james-comey-and-corrupt-john-brennan/
Here is what Brennan said in a Tweet:
“Joe Biden is one of the most honest, decent, practical, & experienced individuals with whom I have ever worked.”
Considering the people Brennan has worked with, that may well be true.
Tub’s lead at the moment, with 75% reporting, has disappeared. Pretty much a tie now. I am shocked and appalled at his showing. In a way he’s worse than Roy Moore, who at least knows his way around the law. Tub’s main qualification (apart from his success as a football coach of course) is his ability to say “Trump” and parrot some of Trump’s lines. Sometimes I despair of the voters in my state.