Ukrainian airplane crashes shortly after takeoff in Iran
[UPDATE: Evidence accumulates that the plane was shot down, although it’s certainly still not known.]
As if things weren’t bad enough yesterday, there’s this:
…176 people including 63 Canadians died in a plane crash near Tehran, with Iran blaming an engine fire but refusing to hand over the recovered black boxes.
The Boeing 737 jet came down just minutes after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport early this morning, sparking fresh alarm in the Middle East hours after Iran launched missile strikes on US bases.
Three Britons and 63 Canadians were among the 168 passengers and nine crew on board the Ukrainian International Airlines flight to Kyiv. There were no survivors…
Iran has pointed the finger at ‘technical difficulties’ and says the pilot lost control after an engine caught fire in mid-air, but Tehran is refusing to say what will happen to the black boxes.
Video footage appeared to show the plane already burning before it fell out of the night sky, while pictures at the crash site showed the fuselage peppered with mysterious holes.
This is a dreadful tragedy. But even for those not inclined to conspiracy theories, the event cries out for some explanation other than “engine failure.” If this plane was purposely shot down, why? What possible goal would be served by murdering a bunch of Iranian civilians and Canadian-Iranians, some of them students? Does it have any connection with this recent tweet from Rouhani, referencing Lockerbie?
And if the plane was accidentally in the path of a missile, what does that say about Iranian capabilities?
And in addition, why were civilian flights going forward at all in that place, on that day? Why wasn’t the airport shut down to commercial traffic?
After all, this warning was in place prior to the crash of the Ukrainian plane:
U.S. carriers are banned from flying at altitudes below 26,000 feet over Iraq under FAA guidance issued in 2018 because of ongoing concerns about threats to U.S. civil aviation throughout Iraq.
They have been banned from flying in an area of Iranian airspace above the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman since Iran shot down a high-altitude U.S. drone last June. No major U.S. airlines fly over Iran at present.
An international aviation team has been activated to support “effective coordination and communication” between airlines and countries as tensions mount in the Middle East after a U.S. drone strike killed an Iranian military commander, global airlines body IATA said on Tuesday.
Airlines and the United Nations’ aviation agency have started to monitor strategic airspace over Iran and Iraq. With some commercial carriers still serving those countries and others flying over their airspace, the International Air Transport Association also issued a statement reminding countries of their obligation to communicate potential risks to civil aviation.
“It is critical that states live up to this obligation as tensions in the Middle East rise,” the group said, days after the killing of General Qassem Soleimani on Friday plunged the region into a new crisis.
The plane that crashed was a flight originating in Iran, not just flying over its territory. I suppose it’s possible that this was some sort of coincidentally timed freak accident. But it’s hard to believe that’s the case.
Possibly the Iranian Air defense was on high alert and was a little trigger happy.
…refusing to hand over the recovered black boxes.
This is the source of my puzzlement. Planes go down from time to time: I wait to learn. But this intervention, this hiding stuff? All inclines to nasty suspicions.
Russia and Ukraine are in direct opposition now, or did we forget the other crash that took out the generals, and had with it a video of shooting… that all disappeared years ago…
The quick assertions of ‘technical difficulties’ is also very fishy. I’ve watched enough episodes of that ‘Air Disasters’ program to know there is no way to know that fast what caused crash. Could’ve been what they said could be human error could be many things you can’t ascertain in hours.
I’m not sure what Iran would gain from doing this purposely though.
As I said in the other thread dont fly ukranian Air, folks. Looks like someone is trying to damage their brand, Putin?
Picture a less-than-competent Iranian air-defense officer. He has been picked based on his family or political connections. Maybe he views his job as merely an opportunity to possess a cool-looking uniform to strut around in.
Now he is on duty the night Iran launches a strike against United States bases in Iran. From Iran. And the US has all those stealth aircraft, and he knows the US is going to retaliate.
Suddenly he gets the report of an aircraft in his area of responsibility. He concludes it is a stealth bomber about to drop a bomb. What to do? Whelp, he is not going to sit there doing nothing, especially since the aircraft in his area of responsibility lacks a transponder reporting the jet as an Iranian Air Force aircraft. He fires a missile . . .
Except Rouhani had already tweeted the reference to the Lockerbie destruction. Hints don’t get any bigger, louder, or more obvious.
Artfldgr on January 8, 2020 at 1:39 pm said:
Russia and Ukraine are in direct opposition now, or did we forget the other crash that took out the generals, and had with it a video of shooting… that all disappeared years ago…
* * *
I confess that I don’t remember that one (although Poland certainly hasn’t forgotten the crash in Russia that took out most of its high officials*).
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-emergencies/2851435-office-of-prosecutor-general-probes-ukrainian-plane-crash-in-iran.html
08.01.2020 12:58
*
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster
We know Iran’s leaders desperately want Trump to lose the election.
My conspiracy theory is that they shot down the airplane simply because it was Ukrainian, and hope that the deep state, Democrats, and American media can somehow twist this story to tie into his impeachment. Maybe…there was a Ukrainian whistleblower on board or someone Guliani had contact with at some point in his corruption investigation.
I actually expect someone like Maddow to start delving into the fact that this plane was Ukrainian…
What I mean is that the Democrats/media may start to claim that Trump used the Iranian missile attacks against us as a backdrop to launch his a mission of his own and have the military shoot down a Ukrainian jet carrying a whistleblower that could bring down his presidency. All the deep state/Democrats (John Kerry?) have to do is convince Iran to claim that an American missile shot down the Ukrainian jet, and off to the races the media will go! We already know they wouldn’t need any more evidence than Iran’s word to run with this conspiracy theory.
At least that’s what I would do if I was a Democrat politician–make Iran claim Trump shot down the plane. It’s a better plan for removal from office than what they tried with the Ukrainian phone call.
My conspiracy theory is that they shot down the airplane simply because it was Ukrainian, and hope that the deep state, Democrats, and American media can somehow twist this story to tie into his impeachment.
arvid: It’s hard not to wonder that somehow, out of all the gin joints in the world, the plane happened to be Ukrainian.
There won’t be “proof” that Iran shot the plane down, tho BleachBit is unlikely to be used on the black boxes. But other explanations will be less convincing, so I’ll believe the Iranians did shoot.
Deliberately? Or incompetently? I’m still 50-50 on this, or maybe 55-45 on deliberate because Ukrainian … and Russia has influence. (See prior post comment).
A whole bunch of national carriers have terminated service to Tehran and in multiple cases also to Baghdad after this event, including Emirates, Jordan Air, and other MidEast airlines.
As to the cause of the crash, who knows? Iran will analyze the black boxes itself, no one else allowed thanks very much.
I have trouble sympathizing with the dead 63 (!) Canadians, who in greatest probability were money-grubbing in Iran. Canada today is assuredly not the Canada of my youth. Today’s Canada is eagerly for sale, especially Vancouver to the communist Chinese. And it has re-elected a muppet as Prime Minister. It is better to be a French-speaking black than an English-speaking white in Canada these days.
Cicero:
I read that the Canadians were mostly people who had emigrated to Iran, most likely to escape the regime in Iran. They may have been visiting relatives there.
See also this.
You have trouble having sympathy for the dead Canadians? I certainly have no trouble having sympathy for them. And even if they were “money-grubbing” (something for which you have zero evidence), that hardly would be a reason to have no problem with their being killed in a fiery crash.
Neo: Your typo makes zero sense when you say, “I read that the Canadians were mostly people who had emigrated to Iran, most likely to escape the regime in Iran.”
I have not read the Canadians were immigrants from Iran; my thesis, amply illustrated by the eagerness of the EU and Canada to do business with Iran post Obama’s deal, is a perfectly legitimate alternative thesis. I did not say I lacked sympathy, but rather that I have trouble rousing, repeat, rousing sympathy for those who do business with the enemy, brutal and merciless as it is.
An engine failure/fire on a B-737 is an emergency procedure that can be easily handled by a well-trained crew. Even an uncontained engine explosion should not bring down a modern jet liner this suddenly. The airplane either had a bomb on board or was hit by a missile. IMO, we’ll never know the truth.
CTH has some interesting pictures.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/01/08/iran-refuses-to-hand-over-black-box-from-fatal-boeing-crash-near-tehran-nose-of-sam-missile-discovered-near-crash-site/comment-page-2/#comment-7732651
Also, commenters speculating that the Iranians deliberately shot down the plane because they expected Trump to be lobbing missiles back at them, and then they could blame the civilian deaths on his response.
I report, you decide.
Cicero:
Yes, obviously it was a typo made in haste – I meant they had emigrated from Iran. The link I gave in my previous comment to you gives some info on that. More info can be found here. It appears the vast majority of the Canadians on board were originally from Iran.
From the UK Telegraph:
“Footage filmed by a local man showed the aircraft trailing fire before it dived into the ground and exploded in a large fireball shortly after 6am local time.”
David Learmount, Consulting Editor at FlightGlobal, told the Telegraph that the failure of the crew to send out a Mayday signal suggested they faced “a sudden and violent” event that forced them to fight for control of the aircraft.
Iranian officials said the pilot lost control of the aircraft after a fire struck fire one of its engines. But aviation experts last night queried whether the plane could have been destroyed by simple engine failure. “Even a catastrophic engine failure would be highly unlikely to have such a dramatic effect on control of the aircraft. A 737 is capable of flying safely on just one of its two engines,”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-plane-crash-170-passengers-feared-dead-ukraine-boeing-737/
We’ll probably never know for sure… but come on. This is their signature move from back in the day. This is who the mullahs *really* are.
They shot down that fucking plane… on purpose.
*THIS* is the real retaliation, the real escalation. The missile attack was for the domestic audience, just an undercard. For us, for our allies, the downed passenger plane is the main event.
Attacking civilians is a part of war, probably the worst part. We’ve done it, too. And we’ll
do it again. So, no sanctimony from me about this… this time.
The mullahs are desperate so they’ll do whatever they have to do to preserve their regime and avoid possible El Duce-ization.
This latest move, however, will result in further isolation and alienation from the international community. I think the mullahs welcome this to a degree, for the same reason the chicoms want to be alone with the HKers: so they can put on a scary face and cow their subjects… and then run them over with tanks… without an international audience.
How should Trump respond? That’s a toughie…
We don’t need the burden of choosing their form of government and/or political leaders. The Iranian people appear to desire the responsibility of self-government. I think it’s cheaper and safer to help them achieve that on their own than to either do it for them; or bomb the shit out of them.
I say we drop knowledge on them.
Is there any way we can make their internet access more reliable, so they can continue to use social media to coordinate with each other during “events”; document atrocities; and distribute evidence of the regime’s crimes?
As long as the regime can flip a switch and cut off internet access, opposition networks will likely never achieve the kind of discipline that makes radical change possible.
That little phone screen is a window to a better world. It’s a new-and-improved version of the TV screens that took down the USSR. They see how other people live around the world and say “why can’t we be free, too? Why must *our* children suffer senseless tyranny?”
Hard to call “free WiFi” an escalation btw.
How about you, Mentus, did you see the documentary film “The Dish“? (I asked FB a couple of days ago but haven’t heard back.) It is excellent, by the way.
We may never know for sure. Apparently Iranian authorities are not only holding the black boxes, but are not allowing Ukrainian investigators near the crash site.
A commenter somewhere reminded me that we, the US, accidentally shot down an Iranian airliner in 1988. This may be the same — a bad mistake in which a commercial airliner is mistaken for a military plane.
In any case, it’s bad for Iran. Carriers from around the world are cancelling service to Tehran. If Iran won’t allow an open investigation, that might not get better.
…might not get better.
I’d put that more intensively, Kate: that must not get better.
For what sane carrier would want the risks? At what price?
sdferr: no, I haven’t seen it. I clicked on the link and watched the trailer and I’m sold.
The Dish is just what I’m looking for, thank you very much.
Ima make my friends watch it with me later today.
After an Israeli air attack, on a Syrian reactor, iirc, the commander of the local air defense arrangements was executed. Apparently he’d let the guys go to lunch o something. The IDF was in and out so fast that, even if the guys had been ready to fight, they’d not have had much time.
So if you’re apprehensive about what the great Satan might be up to–likely got word of the missile launch so as not to freak out and start calling everybody about what’s going on and tying up the phones just when Great Satan shows up–and you have your finger on the metaphorical button and you don’t want to be behind the curve and…..THERE’S AN AIRPLANE.
Reports here and there that this was not a scheduled flight. True? Not? If so, what would ATC be saying to other interested parties and would it be in time?
Now we wait for a couple of days to find out if this is really true.
https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313
The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek.
Richard Aubrey, I heard that the flight was delayed an hour at the airport before departing. Maybe the anti-aircraft site had not been notified that commercial traffic was now flying.
Now CBS saying the same.
https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/status/1215309192086675459
@cbsnews
: US officials are confident Ukrainian Flt 752 was shot down by Iran. US intelligence picked up signals of the radar being turned on & satellite detected infrared blips of 2 missile launches, probably SA-15s, followed shortly by another infrared blip of an explosion.
So sorry for these passengers shot down by their own. Some were visiting family over christmas so not all were Muslim. Of course there are Muslim casualties too, sad.