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And then there’s Brexit news — 15 Comments

  1. I gather Northern Ireland is still the sticking point. The devil is in the details, but it might be that Parliament would be wise to accept what it can get, which is this.

  2. Prediction: Parliament will not accept the deal. Consternation about whether Article 50 approval vote and deadline is automatic or has been superseded by the Benn Act. EU says a valid withdrawal requires leaving according to the national constitution. Remainers claim that condition can’t be met. Lawsuit goes to SCOTUK, which agrees with the Remainers.
    So no Brexit, and on to General Election.
    Every prediction is a hostage to fate. I will cheerfully eat my words if I am wrong.

  3. Johnson doesn’t want a deal, so he’s happy if it gets rejected.
    And the remoaners don’t want Brexit, so they’ll reject any deal and then point to their adopted legislation that makes Brexit without a deal illegal.
    Courts get involved, decide that the remoaners are correct, and there can be no-deal Brexit

    And result is no Brexit, and the UK remains a Franco-German colony.

  4. “result is no Brexit, and the UK remains a Franco-German colony.” JTW

    That’s somewhere between a possibility and a probability. But if it eventuates. the UK will only continue to be a Franco-German colony for another decade.

    “2030 – That’s when we take over…” – a popular t-shirt worn by Muslim youth in Sweden.

  5. I think Johnson has Parliament in a bind here. There is definitely a significant majority for Remain, but they don’t dare express that in a vote, so they face a real dilemma- if they vote down the deal, it is likely to lead to a no-deal Brexit, or an election in which they get crushed. So, my prediction is that Parliament passes this, and I think it will pass with at least 340 votes this weekend.

    The court, though, is another matter- they have clearly shown themselves to be die-hard Remainers, and will declare the new deal illegal, and I think if it comes to it, they will rule Brexit illegal altogether. Johnson and the Queen may have to sack them.

  6. “What does it all mean?” Again, nobody really knows.
    The deal is mediocre, but far far better than T. May got.

    It’s not really clear that it’s better than a no-deal Brexit.

    It should be clear to most that the EU’s ability to deal keeps going up as no-deal Brexit gets closer.

    I’m sure lots of Leavers are willing to go no-deal, but most would accept this one. Not Farage? Maybe the elite Leavers are not in full agreement with the majority Leavers?

    Boris is ready for this deal — but also ready for a no-deal Brexit.

    In all negotiations, you get the best deal when it’s clear you’re able to walk away.

  7. UK got into this bind because T. May called an election when she had a parliamentary majority and ended up with a minority govt in which the Northern Ireland party DUP was needed to prop up the govt.

    I have a feeling that this will pass w/o DUP. The so called “independent” Conservatives are already on board. Enough Labour MPs will defect to pass it through. Some Labour MPs have already stated that they will vote for it.

    Nobody is quite sure what will happen if it fails because Benn Act, which passed thanks to the minority govt, prohibits no-deal Brexit but today we heard that “French President Macron: The UK Must Not Receive A New Delay To Brexit If Lawmakers Vote Down The Deal”. I think that statement will be the driving force.

    There are a couple of side notes on the Benn Act. One is about the flaw in it: https://waitingfortax.com/2019/09/15/the-flaw-in-the-benn-act/

    The other issue is that it was given Royal assent after the parliament was prorogued which is the customary procedure. The SCOTUK ruled that prorogation was illegal which would imply that Benn Act never received Royal assent and is therefore not in force.

  8. I suspect there is much complicated horse-trading and maneuvering behind the scenes that I’m not going to decode, so I’ll let the clock run out on Halloween and see where things stand.

    These references to T. May remind me of T. Rex, the band, whose most famous song is solid Brexit advice:

    –T. Rex, “Bang a Gong (Get It On)”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-noFy_x7Yhg

    That’s an amazingly crisp vinyl version.

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