The government shutdown
Or partial shutdown.
Who will blink first?
The press coverage, as you would expect, is spinning this as Trump-caused. A typical one-sided characterization can be found at Vanity Fair: “Trump is digging in, negotiations are at a standstill, and even Republicans are losing patience.”
Oh, so it’s Trump who’s the one dug in, and there really were bona fide “negotiations” that stopped? Everything I’ve ever read from the Democrats involves a refusal to budge at all. Both sides have dug in, and negotiations were always stalemated. The one part of that sentence that’s probably true is that some Republicans will be losing patience long before any Democrats do.
Here’s an article in American Thinker that suggests how the GOP can end the impasse:
Republicans in the Senate have been trying to pass funding for the border wall by ending the Democrat filibuster. This would require 60 votes in the Senate. There is no real hope of getting one Democrat in the Senate, let alone nine. As if this was not obvious enough, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has made it abundantly clear that Democrats will not permit any funding of the border wall…
President Trump, realizing that the border wall funding must pass to fulfill his campaign promise and to protect national security, called on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on December 21 to use the nuclear option to pass the funding. However, Senator McConnell made it clear that Republicans don’t have the votes necessary to use the nuclear option. So the nuclear option is also not a viable option for border wall funding.
This leaves budget reconciliation as the only option to pass the $5.7 billion in border wall funding. Budget reconciliation, like the nuclear option, allows for a simple majority of 51 votes in the Senate to pass legislation, rather than the normally required 60 votes. However, unlike the nuclear option, it would not break precedent and would likely enable the border funding bill to pass.
And yet it has not been done. Why? One possible reason is that the GOP really does not want this done. Another possible reason is that just a few members of the GOP don’t want it done, but since the GOP majority is very slim (51 plus Pence in a pinch for breaking a tie) there may be enough of those members to put the kibosh on reconciliation for this purpose.
There are at least two GOP senators who are refusing, even though to my knowledge neither have made a formal statement. Sen. Flake is one of those two.
I forgot to mention that with those two GOP senators refusing, not even Vice President Pence’s tie breaker will end the impasse. Still one vote short to make it 50-50 for the budget reconciliation to include the border wall appropriation.
Budget reconciliation was good enough for Obamacare. This really is a budget matter.
When the new Congress is sworn in, the matter becomes extinct but the issue can be resolved outside the Congress. The 2006 bill authorized $10 bilion for a fence. Has this all been spent ?
The “shutdown” is not really a shutdown at all.
What’s shut down are parts of Agencies, or functions that aren’t critical.
A shutdown is a way to create a sense of “crisis,” to pressure someone–Democrats, Republicans, the President–to do or not do something specific.
Whoever’s at fault, it’s usually the Republicans who get blamed for the shutdown– whether or not it’s their fault. And Republicans never seem to be able to place the blame where it actually belongs; they’re not playing hardball.
Usually, though, the things that are shut down are things that are very visible, symbolic, likely to be noticed by tourists and taxpayers. Things like the monuments on the Mall in D.C., the Vietnam Wall, the Air and Space Museum, and some National Parks.
Shutdowns that will piss off those tourists and taxpayers, and get them to pressure their representatives or the President to do whatever needs to be done to shut down the shutdown.
The GOPe definitely does not want this. Note that Paul Ryan had no interest in bringing up funding for the wall for a vote, until the Freedom Caucus and Trump put his feet to the fire. When it happened, it passed easily, in spite of Pelosi’s prediction to the contrary. (Did Ryan have a prediction or excuse? I must have missed it.) Watch as Ryan slips into some megabuck sinecure job in the next year.
What to make of McConnell? Is he just another Ryan, but with more insulation? (I’m inferring the reconciliation option, not the nuclear option. I actually think McConnell is wise to avoid the latter.)
They shut down Independence Hall and the Liberty Bell in Philly. A Philly tourist board came up with something like $32k to open both for the NYE week-end when lots of people show up.
A wall from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico, is I suspect, what most people think about the ‘Wall’. It is not needed, although I favor stout barriers for those areas easily breached. Color me crazy, but this is a long invasion and it can only be reduced to a thin trickle if people are shown that illegal crossings are a death sentence.
Same goes for the invasion of Europe. Sink any unauthorized vessel in the Mediterranean and let the survivors drown. Harsh times call for harsh measures. Crocodile tear in the UN can water my garden. We need Churchills and Pattons. Not Schumers, Ryans, Mays, Marcons, or Merkels.
Watch as Ryan slips into some megabuck sinecure job in the next year.
If he does it will be the first non-government job he has ever held.
The whole political class is mostly staff members who run for office.
The wall in San Diego was hugely effective. The Democrats know it. I suspect they have a base that is poorly educated and crazy. They know no history or economics because those are no longer taught in schools.
The lessons from the decadal recessions, excessive immigration, illegal immigration, diversity, political congruence, planned parenthood, Obamacare, etc., is that there are overlapping and converging interests between parties, and perhaps a common conspiracy of donors.
TommyJay;
I don’t agree with your conclusion on what’s holding it up in the Senate, although it’s certainly possible that you’re correct. The simpler explanation—and my guess is that it’s the correct one—is that there are just a couple of GOP holdouts. McConnell won’t bring it up for a vote if he knows he doesn’t have a majority, and a couple of holdouts can make it so that the vote loses.
The dems see stopping Trump from building the wall as political poison for Trump. Just as they see America regaining control of its immigration levels as a mortal threat to their plans for a one-party America.
Over the next two years, the dems successfully stopping Trump from building the wall by denying funding is however, a two edged sword. It could come back to haunt them in 2020. That pesky Law of Unintended Consequences may arise for the dems.
Trump can use the bully pulpit to incessantly bludgeon the dems with accusations of sedition, in their blatant attempt to disenfranchise any American not fully on board with their imposition of a progressive/Marxist future for America.
This is a case of being careful for what you wish… the dems may win this battle with it costing them the war.
Over the next two years, the dems successfully stopping Trump from building the wall by denying funding is however, a two edged sword.
Among other things, it could leave 40,000 Democrats without paychecks. For a year.
As Ace said, “Oh dear, a government shutdown. It’s like the Trail of Tears, but without the smallpox”.
McConnell should bring it up for a reconciliation vote if he has the votes to pass it or not: time to name them and shame them. Flake might be willing to actually vote no, but I doubt Bob Corker or whoever be actually be willing to look like a traitor to the general public instead of just behind closed doors.
dlr on December 29, 2018 at 3:10 am at 3:10 am said:
McConnell should bring it up for a reconciliation vote if he has the votes to pass it or not: time to name them and shame them.
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What you said.