Interpreting special elections is not an easy task
There was another special election yesterday, this time for the US House member from the 12th District of Ohio. At this moment, Republican Troy Balderson retains a very narrow lead. But, consistent with other special elections since the 2016 regular election, the news was far from good for the GOP because even the victories have been way closer than one might expect in these areas:
Consider contests in Kansas, Georgia, Montana and South Carolina. Democrats came close to winning them all – but didn’t. Democrats finally won a special election on GOP turf in late March. Rep. Conor Lamb, D-Pa., emerged victorious – but barely.
In other words, Democrats are making things close lots of places that shouldn’t be close. That bodes well in the midterms as Democrats need to flip 23 seats to claim control of the House. But Democrats cannot continue to repeatedly make races close and lose. That’s certainly not a recipe for victory in the House.
I’ve heard a lot of explanations. They may even be true. One is that these are called special elections for a reason; turnout is generally low, and that means that the more enthusiastic motivated party will do better. Democrats are highly motivated, to say the least.
But I’m not sure why Republicans aren’t similarly motivated. Trump’s popularity is very high among GOP voters, for example, and I can’t imagine that they don’t realize they have to keep the House for his agenda to have even a chance to be realized. I think the explanation may be a combination of the long-standing hatred of the GOPe, which I often see in blog comments (particularly at certain blogs), and perhaps the less-than-charismatic personality of many Republican nominees. People vote with their politics, but a magnetic personality can go far, too, just on the strength of that (they don’t call it a “winning” personality for nothing).
And then there are the Independents. They may have been the most influenced by the propaganda put out by our friends in the MSM, and are therefore leaning Democratic.
The article I linked earlier in this post goes on to analyze what the Democrats have to do to get control of the House in November, something I consider a very real possibility (of course, I tend to be a pessimist):
But for O’Connor to knock out Balderson means the Democrat needs to win just a few more votes in rural parts of the district.
This is something Democrats need in districts across the board this fall if there is to be any chance of a “blue wave.” Democrats appear to show more traction in these regions. But is it enough? Not yet.
Here’s something else we learned: President Trump makes a difference in these races…on both sides of the ledger. If Balderson’s lead holds, one could plausibly argue that Mr. Trump’s campaign rally in Newark, OH over the weekend may have been just enough to propel the Republican candidate to victory.
But “Trumpism” cuts two ways. This seat should have never been anywhere on the radar for the Democrats. Republicans may have had to pour millions of dollars into this contest just to hold the seat – for a few months. President George W. Bush won the district by 36 points in 2000. The President carried the same district by a little more than half as much two years ago.
President Trump certainly energizes some Republicans and gets them to the polls. But the President’s presence also electrifies Democrats and even swing voters. That induces them to support Democratic candidates. That could be a big liability for Republicans in any district which has a chance of electing a Democrat this fall. However, the prevailing question is whether Mr. Trump’s aura simply boosts Democratic voting or if it helps fuel Democratic wins?
That question will not be answered until Election Day, 2018.
(I guess this means I need to start a new category on my sidebar for Election 2018.)
How many Republicans were just voting against Hillary in the 2016 election?
How do those voters translate into GOP votes this election, when the issue isn’t Hillary?
While some Trump skeptics have been pleasantly surprised by the conservative results of his administration, I suspect they secretly long for some reason, at some point, to shout, AHA, for some disappointment to reaffirm they were right all along in their skepticism.
Leftist trolls frequenting the comments, accuse many regular commenters of their Trumpism, though the ardent Trump supporters were few. Recognizing some Trump victory, or gain, must always be prefaced by the obligatory admission of some Trump defect to counterbalance the good.
I suspect President Trump, whose energy makes me tired, will have a net positive effect for the GOP, but don’t expect the polls to reflect that. His support, in the main, will be recalcitrant to be expressed.
Enthusiasm for Trump will be measured by results– and a big red sticking point that, while not any fault of his, is the WALL. The goPe is busy building their own wall protecting open borders.
I wonder if President Trump’s approval ratings that slid past 50% recently were influenced by his statement that he would risk a government shutdown over the next spending bill if it doesn’t contain funding for a border wall?
I think this issue, as much as the economy and jobs, resonates across parties and unfortunately to many in the goPe refuse to recognize that.
Elementary, my dear Watson.
Visceral, insane hatred is much more motivating than is enthusiastic contentment.
Brian E on August 8, 2018 at 3:55 pm at 3:55 pm said:
How many Republicans were just voting against Hillary in the 2016 election?
How do those voters translate into GOP votes this election, when the issue isn’t Hillary?
* * *
Good point, but the issue is always Hillary because the Democrats thought she was the “best available candidate” and they are just looking for a newer copy.
Some good news —
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/08/socialist-torchbearers-flame-out-in-key-races-despite-blitz-by-bernie-sanders-and-ocasio-cortez.html
A few more posts from Doc Zero, because I think he has the Left pegged in terms of their operating procedures, which affect how they run campaigns and influence elections.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1022829823717244928.html
“The Kavanaugh SCOTUS nomination is a great example of how the Democrats dig in and fight on everything, even lost causes, whereas Rs give up instantly. The GOP doesn’t understand how to make the other side pay a political price for EVERYTHING.
The Dems know they have little chance of stopping Kavanaugh, although it’s not impossible. What they CAN do is hysterically smear and slime him to make the GOP victory costly. They made him into a “controversial” nominee overnight.
Much of what the Dems are saying is hilariously overwrought and downright absurd, but don’t laugh – they did what they set out to do.”
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1020278451192901633.html
“By the way, in case anyone hasn’t figured it out yet, a big part of the push for higher minimum wages is a *deliberate* effort to destroy jobs and drive up unemployment. That’s not a bug – it’s a feature.”
The Ohio special election win by the GOP means there will be a red wave in November.
There. See how easy that was?
I believe MJR is spot on.
I feel those who voted for Trump are little too content; it’s theirs to lose and (D)’s and progs have the voting history – and are socially relentless – to consistently push for what they want even if they are the minority, and even if the issues they push do not speak of the wider reality.
(D)’s and progs were denied their Utopia when Trump was elected where a sizeable inch was given to them when Obama was elected. This pas election got then confused yet unreasonably angry. The children and teenagers want what they want and they aren’t going to stop till they get it.
Content Trump voters need to not be content. Borrow a page out of the prog playbook and be socially relentless.
GRA: Your comment is spot-on, but there’s one silver lining. Democrats seem to turn out less for mid-terms. Yes, they’re panties are all in a knot over Trump, but a lot of them won’t bother until it’s time to defeat him directly.
Regardless, go out and vote.
People are really too obsessed with Trumps behavior instead of his results. Kinda like the ‘not the right kind of black man’ argument.
@ CJ: Well I hope you’re right.
@ Aurelian: The anti-Trump rhetoric is bunkers. A sibling and I were at a pub eating dinner where the conversation turned into politics. He outright said, without any shame and hesitation, that he wanted Trump and his family publicly executed – a beheading actually – that he had no faith in the country because they’re all stupid (because they voted for Trump), and that he’d follow Justin Trudeau in a heartbeat.
I expressed disagreement and he shot a few cuss words my way calling me, well, stupid. The conversation stopped there.